Ten Bets #4 for TFF #52 / Rental Family...Telluride Bound? / Next Best Picture Predicts T-Ride / Knives and Definitions

 TEN BETS #4 FOR TFF #52

With every week we get a little bit more backdoor info pointing to certain titles for TFF #52.  You'll see a little bit of that for this week in the stories posted below.  But let's lead off today's re-shuffle of the top ten bets on films for TFF.  Here's a look at last week's Ten Bets:

1) It Was Just an Accident/Panahi

2) Sentimental Value/Trier

3) Bugonia/Lanthimos

4) Hamnet/Zhao

5) Blue Moon/Linklater

6) Sirat/Oliver Laxe

7) Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere/S. Cooper

8) The Young Mothers' Home/Dardenne Brothers

9) The Ballad of a Small Player/Berger

10) After the Hunt/Guadagnino

Other possibilities: The Love That Remains/Palmason, Jay Kelly, Left-Handed Girl, Frankenstein, Eleanor the Great, After the Hunt, The History of Sound, Family Rental, Pressure, Marty Supreme, Die My Love, The Mastermind, The American Revolution.

And this is where I think we are this week:

1) It Was Just an Accident/Panahi

2) Sentimental Value/Trier

3) Bugonia/Lanthimos

4) Hamnet/Zhao

5) Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere/S. Cooper

6) Sirat/Oliver Laxe

7) Blue Moon/Linklater

8) After the Hunt/Guadagnino

9) The Young Mothers' Home/Dardennes Brothers

10) Rental Family/Hikari

Other possibilities: The History of Sound, The Ballad of a Small Player, The Love That Remains/Palmason, The Secret Agent, Jay Kelly, Left-Handed Girl, Frankenstein, Eleanor the Great, After the Hunt, Pressure, Marty Supreme, Die My Love, The Mastermind, The American Revolution.

RENTAL FAMILY...TELLURIDE BOUND?

Oscar winner Brendan Fraser who leads Hikari's Rental Family

Earlier this week I wrote that Hikari's Rental Family had about a 40% shot at playing at telluride  as a part of my assessment of what Searchlight films might be TFF possible.  That, I suggested. made it the most likely Searchlight property to play TFF #52.

Tuesday World of Reel's Jordan Ruimy reported that the film may be TFF bound.  In a story covering the test screenings of the film.  The thrust of the story is that it has been screening to very positive reactions.  As Ruimy is winding up the article he writes:

"What we might have here is the kind of low-key, but emotionally resonant indie that, if positioned well, could ride a wave of goodwill through the fall circuit and into awards season. 

Of course, it it’s too early to tell, but all signs point to a real crowd-pleaser, and there are already murmurs that it’s already clinched a spot at the Telluride Film Festival, which is known to be a major Oscar launchpad."

We can't know how certain Ruimy is, but it seems he has some serious insight.  Consequently Rental Family makes its way onto this week's Ten Bets list.  And for fun, I'll tease that there is at least one other "Bet" among the 10 that I am 90% sure of and another among the week's "possibilities" that I'm also at 90% on.  I really thought about moving the "possibility" into the Ten Bets for the week but had to make late breaking room for Rental Family.

Any guesses?

NEXT BEST PICTURE PREDICTS T-RIDE

Matt Neglia at Next Best Picture posted yesterday a substantial piece predicting where films would land this fall film fest season including TFF #52.  I have included Matt's Telluride predictions and indicated where he and I overlap as follows:

* On the the latest Ten Bets

**Included as a "Possibility"

***Might have been mentioned by MTFB

Here's Matt's list:

Blue Moon – dir. Richard Linklater*

Bugonia-dir. Yorgos Lanthimos*

Chocobar-dir. Lucretia Martel

The Chronology Of Water – dir. Kristen Stewart***

Hamnet (World Premiere) – dir. Chloe Zhao*

The History Of Sound – dir. Oliver Hermanus**

A House Of Dynamite (World Premiere) – dir. Kathryn Bigelow***

It Was Just An Accident – dir. Jafar Panahi*

Jay Kelly-dir. Noah Baumbach**

Left-Handed Girl – dir. Shih-Ching Tsou***

The Love That Remains – dir. Hlynur Pálmason**

A Magnificent Life – dir. Sylvain Chomet***

Mother Mary (World Premiere) – director. David Lowery

The Perfect Neighbor – dir. Geeta Gandbhir

The President’s Cake – dir. Hasan Hadi***

Rental Family (World Premiere) – dir. Hikari*

The Secret Agent – dir. Kleber Mendonça Filho**

Seeds – dir. Brittany Shyne

Sentimental Value – dir. Joachim Trier*

Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere (World Premiere) – dir. Scott Cooper*

Train Dreams – dir. Clint Bentley***

Urchin – dir. Harris Dickinson***

The Young Mothers’ Home – dir. Luc Dardenne & Jean-Pierre Dardenne*

Films that Matt predicts for Venice or Toronto that I want to be at Telluride:

Anemone

The Ballad of a Small Player

Eleanor the Great

Frankenstein

Is This Thing On?

One Battle After Another

Nuremburg

Orwell: 2+2=5

Pressure

You can find Matt's predictions for all four major fall fests here.

KNIVES AND DEFINITIONS

Word from Netflix yesterday that Rian Johnson's Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery will open the BFI/London Film Festival on October 8th.  The interesting thing is that multiple sources reported that as being its International Premiere.  That means it will have World Premiered somewhere else before Oct. 8th.  

Some have speculated that means a Toronto World Premiere.  But hold up.  The traditional definition of "International Premiere" is that it is a first screening outside the film's nation of origin.  Okay.  It's just that Canada is not the "nation of origin" for Wake Up Dead Man.  According to IMDb Pro the nation of origin is the U.S.A.

So, what gives?  That set of circumstances seem to suggest that WUDM World Premieres at Telluride or Fantastic Fest.  The original Knives Out did world premiere at Toronto and followed that with a screening as a part of Fantastic Fest.  Glass Onion also World Premiered at Toronto and then followed that up with a number of high profile regional fests like Mill Valley, Middleburg and Hamptons.

So, again, what gives?  I think there are three possibilities:

1) Wake Up Dead Man plays Telluride.

2) Wake Up Dead Man plays Fantastic Fest and skips Toronto.

3) Wake Up Dead Man World Premieres at Toronto.

The third option is maybe the most likely because the "International Premiere" designation has been inconsistently applied for some time.

I'll keep an eye on this to see how it finally checks out.

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Distributor Monday #5 Searchlight / Venice Announces Opening Film...Does It Play Telluride?

 DISTRIBUTOR MONDAY #5: SEARCHLIGHT

Today's look at film distributors that have a fairly impressive track record at screening things at Telluride continues with Searchlight Films (formerly Fox Searchlight).  Over the nine years I looked back (and leaving out the Covid year of 2020) Searchlight has landed at least one at Telluride every year except 2016.

Over the years Searchlight has had a good deal of success when playing films at Telluride.  Since 2008 five (Fox) Searchlight films have played TFF and subsequently won the Academy Award for Best Picture:

2009: Slumdog Millionaire

2014: 12 Years a Slave

2015: Birdman

2018: The Shape of Water

2021: Nomadland (would have played TFF had the fest happened.  TFF did sponsor a screening or two)

Searchlight has also had a number of other films that were Best Picture nominated.  Some of those were TFF films, some not.  Since 2015:

2016: Brooklyn

2018: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

2019: The Favourite

2020: Jojo Rabbit

2022: Nightmare Alley

2023: The Banshees of Inisherin

2024: Poor Things

2025: A Complete Unknown

Looking at the possibilities from Searchlight we discover that there aren't many.  Three to be precise.  Here's the rundown for each listed in alphabetical order.  Participants in these films that have attended TFF previously are indicated with *.

In the Blink of an Eye.  Director: Andrew Stanton. Stars: Rashida Jones, Kate McKinnon, Daveed Diggs.  Release date: TBD.  IMDb description:

Three storylines, spanning thousands of years, intersect and reflect on hope, connection and the circle of life.

Frankly, I'd be surprised if this turns up.

Is This Thing On?  Director: Bradley Cooper.  Stars: Bradley Cooper, Laura Dern*, Will Arnett, Ciaran Hinds.  Release date: TBD.  IMDB description:

As their marriage unravels, Alex faces middle age and divorce, seeking new purpose in the New York comedy scene while wife Tess confronts the sacrifices she made for their family-forcing them to navigate co-parenting and identity.

I'm actually pretty excited about this film.  I am wary that it will be ready in time.  IMDb reports that it went into post-production in April...so...  Laura Dern's participation doesn't hurt its chances of making a TFF appearance as she has been a TFF regular for some time now.

Rental Family.  Director: Hikari.  Stars: Brendan Fraser, Takehiro Hira.  Release date: TBD.  IMDb description:

Japanese rental company hires struggling American actor in Tokyo. He plays various roles in clients' lives, embarking on an introspective journey through these unlikely experiences.

I actually think that Rental Family might be the most likely TFF entrant of the three.

Chances:

Rental Family 40%

Is This Thing On? 20%

In the Blink of an Eye 20%

Next week a look at Amazon/MGM.

VENICE ANNOUNCES OPENING FILM...DOES IT PLAY TELLURIDE?

The 82nd Venice Film Festival will open with Paolo Sorrentino's La Grazia (Grace).  Does that make it likely to also play at TFF #52?  That answer isn't clear at all.  Although I have frequently mentioned that the positioning of a film in the Venice schedule is crucial for any film that a distributor wants in both fests.  To make this double play a film has to be scheduled in Venice first two to three days.  Fourth day tops.  So you would think that Venice's opening night film would be a solid choice to make the way.  But...hold on...no so fast.  

I went back to 2010 and checked that scenario.  Here's what has opened Venice for each year since then with films that went on to cross the Atlantic to screen at T-ride indicated with a *.

2010: Black Swan*

2011: The Ides of March

2012: The Reluctant Fundamentalist

2013: Gravity*

2014: Birdman*

2015: Everest

2016: La La Land*

2017: Downsizing*

2018: First Man*

2019: The Truth

2020: The Ties

2021: Parallel Mothers

2022: White Noise

2023: Comandante

2024: Beetlejuice Beetlejuice

As you can see, the Venice-Telluride scenario was very common from 2010-2018 with the Venice opener going west six times but beginning with 2019 the trend has not happened.

I can recall thinking that The Truth (19), Parallel Mothers (21) and White Noise (22) all had a pretty good shot at going to TFF and being wrong about them.

Muddying the predictive waters are the fact that director Paolo Sorrentino has recently been an invitee to Telluride.  In 2021 his The Hand of God did the Venice-Telluride thing with it playing Venice on Sept. 2 and then screening in Telluride the next day.

Additionally, La Grazia is being distributed in the U.S. by Mubi which has been a TFF player the last four years or so.

I'm inclined to think that the recent drought of Venice openers coming to Telluride isn't an accident.  It feels like the outcome of a deliberate choice to avoid that.  I have no real evidence other than the fact that the circumstance hasn't occurred for six straight years.

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TFF #52 Poster Released / 50 Fall Film Possibilities / Cannes Sales Update /

TFF #52 POSTER RELEASED

It dropped yesterday and here it is:

And the press release from TFF:

We are proud to unveil our 2025 Festival poster, created by celebrated cartoonist and graphic novelist Daniel Clowes.

Daniel Clowes is one of the most influential and acclaimed figures in contemporary graphic storytelling. Best known for his seminal comic-book series Eightball and the cult classic graphic novel Ghost World, Clowes has defined the landscape of alternative comics for over three decades. His body of work includes Like a Velvet Glove Cast in Iron, David Boring, Ice Haven, The Death-Ray, Wilson, and Patience. His most recent book, Monica, was named by Kirkus Reviews as one of the 100 greatest works of fiction of the 21st century.

Clowes received an Academy Award nomination (with Terry Zwigoff) for the screenplay adaptation of Ghost World and has been recognized with a PEN America Literary Award, as well as numerous Eisner and Harvey Awards. His work has been exhibited in a solo retrospective, Modern Cartoonist, at The Museum of Contemporary Art in Chicago and other venues. His illustrations have appeared on movie posters, album covers, multiple covers of The New Yorker, and even a Hermès scarf. He lives in Oakland, California with his wife Erika.

Clowes shared, “I’m thankful to the Telluride Film Festival for giving me the opportunity to focus my energy on something unassailably positive and noble in these dystopic times.”

Festival director Julie Huntsinger adds, “We’ve long admired Dan’s unparalleled ability to tell emotional, layered stories through both image and language. His poster for this year’s festival is a rich and brilliant capsule of that – a perfect reflection of his depth and wit through the lens of cinema and all that it can offer.”

50 FALL FILM POSSIBILITIES

Ezra Cubero writing for Silver Screen Express has posted his annual set of speculation about which films might go where as regards Telluride, Venice, Toronto and New York.  It's an interesting take with some surprise.

I culled the post and began by creating a list of the films that Cubero thinks have some shot at the TFF #52 lineup.  It's a lengthy list which follows below (with director listed to the right).

After the Hunt/Guadagnino

Anemone/Day-Lewis

At the Sea/Mundruczo

Blue Moon/Linklater*

Bugonia/Lanthimos

Christy Martin Biopic/Michod

Deliver Me from Nowhere/S. Cooper

Eleanor the Great/Johansson

Hamnet/Zhao

Hedda/DaCosta

The History of Sound/Hermanus

It Was Just an Accident/Panahi

Jay Kelly/Baumbach

Kiss of the Spiderwoman/Condon*

Late Fame/Jones

A Magnificent Life/Chomet

Marty Supreme/J. Safdie

The Mastermind/Reichardt

Nouvelle Vague/Linklater

Rental Family/Hikari

The Rivals of Amziah King/Patterson**

Roofman/Cianfrance

The Secret Agent/Filho

Sentimental Value/Trier

Sirat/Laxe

The Smashing Machine/B. Safdie

Sound of Falling/Schiliniski

* indicates a premiere at Sundance

** indictaes a premiere at South by Southwest

Notable films that Cubero does not mention as a Telluride possibility at all:

Alpha/Ducournau

The Ballad of a Small Player/Berger

Die My Love/Ramsay

Father Mother Sister Brother/Jarmusch

Frankenstein/Del Toro

One Battle After Another/PT Anderson

And one last note.  Cubero doesn't pick Bradley Cooper's Is This Thing On for Telluride but does write about it saying: "Telluride might not happen."  Which isn't a total rejection of its chances.

Cubero was pretty solid on this last year hitting 13 films he listed as "Yes" or "Maybe" for Telluride that actually made the lineup.  His post last year went up on June 24th.

Cubero's entire fascinating piece is linked here.

CANNES SALES UPDATE

Indiewire has kept track of sales during and after the 78th Cannes Film Fest and I have taken a look at buyers/titles that do not have an announced release date or do have a release date post-Telluride.  I also focused on distributors that have had a fairly serious presence at TFF over the past few years.

Here's the rundown beginning with Neon, which went on a buying spree.

Neon (7): It Was Just an Accident, Sirat, The Secret Agent, Alpha, Orwell 2+2=5, Sentimental Value, Splitsville.

Mubi (5): Sound of Falling, Die My Love, The History of Sound, The Mastermind, My Father's Shadow.

Sony Pictures Classics (3): The President's Cake, Eleanor the Great, A Magnificent Life.

Janus Films (3): Magellan, The Love That Remains, Resurrection.

Netflix (2): Left-Handed Girl, Nouvelle Vague.

A24 (1): Pillion.

Kino Lorber (1): Amrum.

Lots of TFF potential here.

The complete list from Indiewire is here.

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New Baumbach Film Has a Date / Awards Watch's First Oscar Picks

NEW BAUMBACH FILM HAS A DATE

Noah Baumbach's latest film, Jay Kelly, has been dated for theatrical release by Netflix.  The film will be released into theaters on Nov. 14th.  Netflex will start streaming it on Dec. 5th. The film stars George Clooney and Adam Sandler. 

Several outlets reported on the announcement earlier this week with a couple making some noise about a possible play at Telluride.  Gregory Ellwood writing for The Playlist commented in his story that:

"It’s possible Netflix could hold “Kelly” to the New York Film Festival, but Clooney’s participation makes a Venice Film Festival bow much more likely. In theory, that means Telluride and TIFF screenings are up for discussion. Whatever the case, the streamer’s release strategy makes it clear they believe it’s a prime awards season contender."

Ellwood's complete story is here.

Additionally, Jordan Ruimy at World of Reel echoed the Telluride possibility writing:

“Jay Kelly” could very well have its world premiere at the Venice Film Festival in September. It will certainly be hitting the fall fests, and that could include Toronto, Telluride and New York."

Ruimy's post is linked here.

The Telluride pedigree is impressive.  Baumbach has had a presence at Telluride having screened Margot at the Wedding (2007), Frances Ha (2012) and Marriage Story (2019) at TFF.

Clooney was in town in 2011 with Alexander Payne's The Descendants.  Sandler was in T-ride in 2019 with the Safdie Brothers' Uncut Gems.  And a couple of members of the supporting cast have had a presence at TFF including Laura Dern (Marriage Story, Trial by Fire and Wild) and Greta Gerwig (Frances Ha and Lady Bird).

Finally, it's Netflix project and they have been well represented at the fest since 2015.

AWARDS WATCH'S FIRST OSCAR PICKS

Erik Anderson who runs Awards Watch has had his first set of predictions for 2025 going up this week.  He's got four categories up so far: Picture, Direction, Actress and Actor.  There are a couple of reasons to look at what Erik has to say.  First, as with other early Oscar picks highlighted here on the blog, I'll run through his picks and post a list below of possible TFF #52 titles.  Secondly, Erik makes a couple of interesting observations about Telluride in his Best actress/Actor predictions.

First, possible TFF #52 films from Erik's Best Picture predictions (in his order of mention):

Bugonia/Lanthimos (Focus)

Jay Kelly/Baumbach (Netflix)

Marty Supreme/J. Safdie (A24)

After the Hunt/Guadagnino (Amazon MGM)

Die, My Love/Ramsay (TBD)

Deliver Me from Nowhere/S. Cooper (20th Century)

The Ballad of a Small Player/Berger (Netflix)

Frankenstein/Del Toro (Netflix)

Hamnet/Zhzo (Focus)

Is This Thing On?/B. Cooper (Searchlight)

Pressure/Maras (Focus)

Anemone/Day-Lewis (Focus)

Eleanor the Great/Johansson (SPC)

The History of Sound/Hermanus (Mubi)

The Mastermind/Reichardt (Mubi)

Rental Family/Hikari (Searchlight)

You can find Erik's full list of Best Picture and Direction predictions here.

Meanwhile in his piece on Best Actress/Actor predictions he makes a couple of interesting statements.  The first relates to Rental Family and Is This Thing On?  From the post:

"I’m also keeping an eye on two Searchlight Pictures men, recent winner Brendan Fraser in Rental Family and Will Arnett in Is This Thing On?, the latter of which just recently wrapped production under Bradley Cooper’s direction. A Telluride or Toronto debut feels likely for one or both, if they’re ready for this year."

Later in the same piece, he writes this concerning Hamnet:

"The Focus Features adaptation of the Maggie O’Farrell fictional story of Agnes, the wife of William Shakespeare, as she struggles to come to terms with the loss of her only son, the titular Hamnet, will likely find its debut at Venice or Telluride (possibly screening at both) and setting the stage for her."

Interesting, eh?

Here's the link to the complete set of Best Actress/Actor predictions.

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