Obsessing about the Telluride Film Festival and the film awards season since 2008!
"The best blog out there for predicting what will be going to Telluride."-Matt Neglia, Next Best Picture
"The Nostradamus of Telluride"
-Tim Appelo, Movies for Grownups
11 days and counting to TFF #52. As the fest approaches Neon released both a poster and a trailer for Jafar Panahi's Plame d'Or winner , It Was Just an Accident. I've had it on my Ten Bets list throughout the summer. Last week's "Bets" had the film listed as the #2 Best Bet. The film is described at IMDb as this:
A small mishap triggers a chain reaction of ever-growing problems.
Fairly cryptic, eh?
The film opens in the U.S. on Oct 15th.
Here's the poster:
And the trailer from YouTube:
GUEST DIRECTOR ANYONE?
So it seems that TFF has established something of a new protocol about Guest Directors going forward. for the third consecutive year the fest is down to the wire without having named a Guest Director. as I wrote last year about this topic, for the past few years the fest announced the Guest Director usually in the third week of June. But for TFF #50 and #51, they did not announce them until the big reveal of official film titles on the Thursday before the festival began.
Last year, that was the timing for the reveal of Kenneth Lonergan as Guest Director and for TFF #50 the announcement of multiple Guest Directors was also revealed the day before the fest.
So...I'm beginning to think that becomes the new normal.
Maybe we find out earlier, but I have my doubts.
NEW YORK AND TORONTO RE-VISIT
Poster for Sirat (which might still be in play for Telluride-see below)
I wrote last week about the premiere designations confusion that exists for three films announced for both the New York Fest and Toronto. So, I thought I'd wander back to both festival's official online lineups to see if either fest had altered the premiere designations for any of the three films;
Landmarks: No change.
Blue Moon: No change.
A Private Life: No change.
Again all three films are listed as North American premieres by TIFF and as New York premieres for NYFF. NYFF designating them as New York premieres is the real oddity. It seems to me that if they're doing the North American premiere at Toronto then New York should have deemed them as U.S. premieres.
But there's more. I went through all 18 non-revival films that New York labels as U.S. premieres and the 22 that they label as New York premieres and found that Sirat and Barrio Triste also are listed in the same weird and contradictory way as Blue Moon, Landmarks and A Private Life. So, perhaps those two films are also actually still possible for Telluride.
Finally, a couple of other films are listed by NYFF as New York premieres and I can't detect why. They are With Hasan in Gaza and Evidence.
THE PEOPLE'S TELLURIDE-13TH EDITION
For the 13th year MTFB is soliciting your input for The People's Telluride. All you have to do is watch films during the fest and then, when it's all over, report to me your assessment of each film on a 1-5 scale with 1 being "UGH!" and 5 being "GREAT".
Report your ratings to: mpgort@gmail.com
The deadline for this year to turn in your ratings will be Sept. 15th.
I'll compile all of your responses and post those a few days after the festival.
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Other possibilities: The History of Sound, The Ballad of a Small Player, The Love That Remains, The Secret Agent, Jay Kelly, Left-Handed Girl, Frankenstein, Eleanor the Great, Pressure, Marty Supreme, Die My Love, The Mastermind, The American Revolution.
And now for the updated Ten Bets:
1) Hamnet/Zhao
2) It Was Just an Accident/Panahi
3) Sentimental Value/Trier
4) Bugonia/Lanthimos
5) Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere/S. Cooper
6) Blue Moon/Linklater
7) Sirat/Laxe
8) The Young Mothers' Home/Dardenne Brothers
9) The History of Sound/Hermanus
10) After the Hunt/Guadagnino
Other possibilities: The Ballad of a Small Player, The Love That Remains, The Secret Agent, Jay Kelly, Left-Handed Girl, Frankenstein, Eleanor the Great, Pressure, Die My Love, The Mastermind, The American Revolution.
Changes in this week's Ten Bets informed by announcements yesterday from Toronto (see below). Marty Supreme falls out of "possibilities" amid reports that it will skipping all fall fests.
I'm expecting more announcements coming from other fests next week which should really begin to clear the picture for TFF #52.
TORONTO ADDS 11 MORE TITLES...WE DEDUCE!
Yesterday the Toronto International Film Festival announced 11 more titles for their 2025 edition. Their premiere designations tell us about films that now seem to be (mostly) ruled out and one that seems to be confirmed for Telluride. Per Variety here are those films and their designations.
Galas:
The Choral | Nicholas Hytner | UK
World Premiere | Gala Presentation
Homebound | Neeraj Ghaywan | India
North American Premiere | Gala Presentation
Hamnet | Chloé Zhao | UK
Canadian Premiere | Gala Presentation
A Private Life | Rebecca Zlotowski | France
North American Premiere | Gala Presentation
Roofman | Derek Cianfrance | USA
World Premiere | Gala Presentation
She Has No Name | Peter Ho-Sun Chan | China
North American Premiere | Gala Presentation
Special Presentations:
Franz | Agnieszka Holland | Czech Republic/Germany/Poland
World Premiere | Special Presentation
The Lost Bus | Paul Greengrass | USA
World Premiere | Special Presentation
Rental Family | HIKARI | USA/Japan
World Premiere | Special Presentation
Steal Away | Clement Virgo | Canada/Belgium
World Premiere | Special Presentation
Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery | Rian Johnson | USA
World Premiere | Special Presentation
Takeaways: Looks like Chloe Zhao's Hamnet is headed to Telluride. Looks like Hikari's Rental Family is not. I've had Hamnet in the Ten Bets from the jump this year. I just put in Rental Family last week but its World Premiere designation means that it won't be at Telluride. The question that raises is does that mean that Bradley Cooper's Is This Thing On? a real TFF #52 possibility from Searchlight? Because it feels like that's Searchlight's best shot now.
Couple of other things: A Private Life, Roofman and Franz were films I had sort of considered as possible TFF candidates and aren't now.
The mystery about Wake Up Dead Man's International Premiere designation for the BFI/London Fest remains...weird. I've said it before...the International Premiere designation is "squishy".
None of the other films announced by Toronto were on my radar as Telluride candidates.
Luca Guadagnino's After the Hunt moved up into this week's Ten Bets. Mostly because its Amazon-MGM's big shot this year and Rental Family dropped out. Now I'm sort of thinking that it does Venice early and then Telluride. Maybe a Julia Roberts tribute?
World of Reel wrote about it yesterday saying:
“After the Hunt” is set to hit screens on October 10 via Amazon/MGM. As mentioned, it’ll probably hit Venice in September, and probably have a fall rollout in other fests, maybe Toronto and Telluride."
Also perhaps signaling that the film is soon to be announced for Venice, Amazon-MGM dropped a trailer yesterday. Here that is from YouTube:
I think it looks intriguing.
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With every week we get a little bit more backdoor info pointing to certain titles for TFF #52. You'll see a little bit of that for this week in the stories posted below. But let's lead off today's re-shuffle of the top ten bets on films for TFF. Here's a look at last week's Ten Bets:
1) It Was Just an Accident/Panahi
2) Sentimental Value/Trier
3) Bugonia/Lanthimos
4) Hamnet/Zhao
5) Blue Moon/Linklater
6) Sirat/Oliver Laxe
7) Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere/S. Cooper
8) The Young Mothers' Home/Dardenne Brothers
9) The Ballad of a Small Player/Berger
10) After the Hunt/Guadagnino
Other possibilities: The Love That Remains/Palmason, Jay Kelly, Left-Handed Girl, Frankenstein, Eleanor the Great, After the Hunt, The History of Sound, Family Rental, Pressure, Marty Supreme, Die My Love, The Mastermind, The American Revolution.
And this is where I think we are this week:
1) It Was Just an Accident/Panahi
2) Sentimental Value/Trier
3) Bugonia/Lanthimos
4) Hamnet/Zhao
5) Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere/S. Cooper
6) Sirat/Oliver Laxe
7) Blue Moon/Linklater
8) After the Hunt/Guadagnino
9) The Young Mothers' Home/Dardennes Brothers
10) Rental Family/Hikari
Other possibilities: The History of Sound, The Ballad of a Small Player, The Love That Remains/Palmason, The Secret Agent, Jay Kelly, Left-Handed Girl, Frankenstein, Eleanor the Great, After the Hunt, Pressure, Marty Supreme, Die My Love, The Mastermind, The American Revolution.
RENTAL FAMILY...TELLURIDE BOUND?
Oscar winner Brendan Fraser who leads Hikari's Rental Family
Earlier this week I wrote that Hikari's Rental Family had about a 40% shot at playing at telluride as a part of my assessment of what Searchlight films might be TFF possible. That, I suggested. made it the most likely Searchlight property to play TFF #52.
Tuesday World of Reel's Jordan Ruimy reported that the film may be TFF bound. In a story covering the test screenings of the film. The thrust of the story is that it has been screening to very positive reactions. As Ruimy is winding up the article he writes:
"What we might have here is the kind of low-key, but emotionally resonant indie that, if positioned well, could ride a wave of goodwill through the fall circuit and into awards season.
Of course, it it’s too early to tell, but all signs point to a real crowd-pleaser, and there are already murmurs that it’s already clinched a spot at the Telluride Film Festival, which is known to be a major Oscar launchpad."
We can't know how certain Ruimy is, but it seems he has some serious insight. Consequently Rental Family makes its way onto this week's Ten Bets list. And for fun, I'll tease that there is at least one other "Bet" among the 10 that I am 90% sure of and another among the week's "possibilities" that I'm also at 90% on. I really thought about moving the "possibility" into the Ten Bets for the week but had to make late breaking room for Rental Family.
Any guesses?
NEXT BEST PICTURE PREDICTS T-RIDE
Matt Neglia at Next Best Picture posted yesterday a substantial piece predicting where films would land this fall film fest season including TFF #52. I have included Matt's Telluride predictions and indicated where he and I overlap as follows:
* On the the latest Ten Bets
**Included as a "Possibility"
***Might have been mentioned by MTFB
Here's Matt's list:
Blue Moon – dir. Richard Linklater*
Bugonia-dir. Yorgos Lanthimos*
Chocobar-dir. Lucretia Martel
The Chronology Of Water – dir. Kristen Stewart***
Hamnet (World Premiere) – dir. Chloe Zhao*
The History Of Sound – dir. Oliver Hermanus**
A House Of Dynamite (World Premiere) – dir. Kathryn Bigelow***
It Was Just An Accident – dir. Jafar Panahi*
Jay Kelly-dir. Noah Baumbach**
Left-Handed Girl – dir. Shih-Ching Tsou***
The Love That Remains – dir. Hlynur Pálmason**
A Magnificent Life – dir. Sylvain Chomet***
Mother Mary (World Premiere) – director. David Lowery
The Perfect Neighbor – dir. Geeta Gandbhir
The President’s Cake – dir. Hasan Hadi***
Rental Family (World Premiere) – dir. Hikari*
The Secret Agent – dir. Kleber Mendonça Filho**
Seeds – dir. Brittany Shyne
Sentimental Value – dir. Joachim Trier*
Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere (World Premiere) – dir. Scott Cooper*
Train Dreams – dir. Clint Bentley***
Urchin – dir. Harris Dickinson***
The Young Mothers’ Home – dir. Luc Dardenne & Jean-Pierre Dardenne*
Films that Matt predicts for Venice or Toronto that I want to be at Telluride:
Word from Netflix yesterday that Rian Johnson's Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery will open the BFI/London Film Festival on October 8th. The interesting thing is that multiple sources reported that as being its International Premiere. That means it will have World Premiered somewhere else before Oct. 8th.
Some have speculated that means a Toronto World Premiere. But hold up. The traditional definition of "International Premiere" is that it is a first screening outside the film's nation of origin. Okay. It's just that Canada is not the "nation of origin" for Wake Up Dead Man. According to IMDb Pro the nation of origin is the U.S.A.
So, what gives? That set of circumstances seem to suggest that WUDM World Premieres at Telluride or Fantastic Fest. The original Knives Out did world premiere at Toronto and followed that with a screening as a part of Fantastic Fest. Glass Onion also World Premiered at Toronto and then followed that up with a number of high profile regional fests like Mill Valley, Middleburg and Hamptons.
So, again, what gives? I think there are three possibilities:
1) Wake Up Dead Man plays Telluride.
2) Wake Up Dead Man plays Fantastic Fest and skips Toronto.
3) Wake Up Dead Man World Premieres at Toronto.
The third option is maybe the most likely because the "International Premiere" designation has been inconsistently applied for some time.
I'll keep an eye on this to see how it finally checks out.
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We're creeping up on the time frame for rapid discovery of probable Telluride selections based on information as other major fall film festivals begin to announce their lineups. For Telluride watchers that chiefly means Toronto, Venice and New York. Fantastic Fest and BFI/London can also provide clues.
When those announcements happen they can rapidly change the look of the Ten Bets. It's all about how a fest frames the premiere status for the films that they include. Designations that are key over the next few weeks are:
"World Premiere" which is exactly what it sounds like...some fest is telling you that they will be hosting the very first public screening of a film anywhere. So when Toronto tells you they are "World Premiering" a film that means it won't play Telluride which occurs before TIFF.
Almost all of Venice's titles are World Premieres. The best info from Venice comes when they announce their actual screening schedule. As Venice cranks up a couple of days before TFF starts, films that get scheduled the first three or four days of Venice have time to get to the Colorado Rockies for a portion of TFF.
"International Premiere" which means the first screening outside the films country of origin (though "country of origin" can be a slippery term). This designation can cut both ways in as far as ruling a film in or out of the TFF lineup. For example, an American film the screens at Telluride and then at Toronto could be designated by TIFF as an "International Premiere". When TIFF frames their announcement that way it could be a predictor that the film will play T-ride. On the other hand, if a French film screens at Cannes and is announced as an International Premiere by Toronto, that means it is skipping Telluride.
"North American Premiere": A very useful piece of information for announcements from Toronto or New York as it means no previous play at Telluride.
"Canadian" or "New York" premieres. In each case this kind of "local" premiere designation almost always means a Telluride play....but NOT 100% of the time. You have to remember that Sundance, South by Southwest and Fantastic Fest film titles could also result in the "local" designation for either TIFF or NTFF.
Ultimately all of this explains why changes in the early versions of the Ten Bets are glacial and then become quite dynamic when we begin to see announcements from these other major fests.
All that said, here's a review of last week's Ten Bets for TFF #52:
1) It Was Just an Accident/Panahi
2) Blue Moon/Linklater
3) Bugonia/Lanthimos
4) Sentimental Value/Trier
5) The Young Mothers' Home/Dardennes
6) Hamnet/Zhao
7) Sirat/Oliver Laxe
8) Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere/S. Cooper
9) The Ballad of a Small Player/Berger
10) The Love That Remains/Palmason
Other possibilities: Jay Kelly, Left-Handed Girl, Frankenstein, Eleanor the Great, After the Hunt, Family Rental, Pressure, Marty Supreme, Die My Love, The Mastermind.
And now, this week's Ten Bets:
1) It Was Just an Accident/Panahi
2) Sentimental Value/Trier
3) Bugonia/Lanthimos
4) Hamnet/Zhao
5) Blue Moon/Linklater
6) Sirat/Oliver Laxe
7) Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere/S. Cooper
8) The Young Mothers' Home/Dardenne Brothers
9) The Ballad of a Small Player/Berger
10) After the Hunt/Guadagnino
Other possibilities: The Love That Remains/Palmason, Jay Kelly, Left-Handed Girl, Frankenstein, Eleanor the Great, After the Hunt, The History of Sound, Family Rental, Pressure, Marty Supreme, Die My Love, The Mastermind, The American Revolution.
Comment: Sentimental Value and Hamnet both gain a couple of spots. Sirat and Deliver Me from Nowhere move up one spot. Blue Moon and Young Mothers' Home lose some ground and, for now, After the Hunt supplants The Love That Remains in the #10 spot.
SENTIMENTAL VALUE TRAILER
Currently sitting at #2 in the Latest Ten Bets is Joachim Trier's Sentimental Value. The film won the Grand Prix at Cannes in May and is considered a hot property moving through the fall fest season. Neon is the film's distributor and they're larder is stacked with Cannes projects that they acquired during and after the festival.
Mubi released a trailer a couple of days ago. Here it is from YouTube:
Sentimental Value is set to open in the United States on Nov. 7th.
THE MASTERMIND IS DATED
Nest Best Picture revealed this week that Mubi will release Kelly Reichardt's The Mastermind theatrically in the U.S. on Oct. 17th.
That date means it could line up potential plays at Telluride, Toronto and/or New York. Reichardt was in Telluride in 2019 with the enigmatic First Cow.
The Mastermind played the Cannes Fest in the Palme d'Or competition. It stood somewhere in the middle of the competition group critically with a 6.29 average rating as reported by Cannes-Ratings.org.
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It's Thursday so time to update MTFB's Teb bets for TFF #52.
Here's a review of last week's Ten Bets.
1) It Was Just an Accident/Panahi
2) Blue Moon/Linklater
3) Bugonia/Lanthimos
4) The Love That Remains/Palmason
5) Sentimental Value/Trier
6) The Young Mothers' Home/Dardennes
7) The Secret Agent/Filho
8) Hamnet/Zhao
9) Deliver Me from Nowhere/S. Cooper
10) The Ballad of a Small Player/Berger
And here's the updated Bets for this week:
1) It Was Just an Accident/Panahi
2) Blue Moon/Linklater
3) Bugonia/Lanthimos
4) Sentimental Value/Trier
5) The Young Mothers' Home/Dardennes
6) Hamnet/Zhao
7) Sirat/Oliver Laxe
8) Deliver Me from Nowhere/S. Cooper
9) The Ballad of a Small Player/Berger
10) The Love That Remains/Palmason
A little movement here and there from where things were last week. For the moment The Secret Agent has dropped off the Ten Best...but it could return. The Love That Remains drops down but stays on the list. Sirat enters the list at #7. The top three remain the same with other titles like Sentimental Value and Deliver Me from Nowhere moving up a spot.
Other possibilities: Jay Kelly, Left-Handed Girl, Frankenstein, Eleanor the Great, After the Hunt, Family Rental, Pressure, Marty Supreme, Die My Love, The Mastermind.
VARIETY'S TAKE ON VENICE
We're likely about four weeks away from the announcement of the Venice lineup and then another couple of weeks past that before we find out when the films selected will be scheduled. Those two chunks of information can help illuminate the possible TFF lineup.
I've passed along a couple of sites that have speculated about potential Venice titles and today I add a piece from Variety with their take on what could play there. I've scoured the article for possible TFF titles and here's what I came up with:
The Smashing Machine/B. Safdie
After the Hunt/Guadagnino
Bugonia/Lanthimos
Couture/Winocour
Jay Kelly/Baumbach
Frankenstein/Del Toro
A House of Dynamite/Bigelow
Father, Mother, Sister, Brother/Jarmusch
La Grazia/Sorrentino
Click on the link above for the full article.
ROOFMAN HAS A TRAILER
Derek Cianfrance's next film has a trailer and World of Reel suggests that it will have a presence on the fall film fest circuit including a possible play at Telluride.
WOR head honcho, Jordan Ruimy writes that:
"It’s been a long time coming, but Derek Cianfrance is finally back. His latest feature, “Roofman,” is already being positioned for a major festival run in fall 2025."
And further along in the post from yesterday:
"As for where “Roofman” will land on the festival circuit, maybe Telluride? Definitely TIFF. Venice is an outside shot as Cianfrance has been on the Lido before, but isn’t a regular. It’ll all depend on the quality of the film."
The film stars Channing Tatum who was in Telluride in 2014 with Foxcatcher, Kirsten Dunst who was in T-ride in 2021 with The Power of the Dog and Peter Dinklage who was a TFF tribute recipient with Cyrano also in 2021. Ben Mendelsohn, Juno Temple, Uzo Aduba and LaKeith Stanfield also star. The IMDb description:
The story of the rooftop robber, Jeffrey Manchester, and his time on the lam evading capture.
And here's the trailer via YouTube:
Roofman is dated for release on Oct. 3rd.
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Neon has come on strong over the last decade as a Telluride staple. Their first appearance at TFF came in 2016 as the distributor of Errol Morris's The B-Side. In the years since then Neon has placed 18 other films at TFF for an impressive average of 2.4 films per year. In that time some other notable titles under the Neon banner that have appeared at TFF include: Last year's Best Picture winner Anora, 2020 Oscar Best Picture winner Parasite, Anatomy of a Fall and Flee.
This year, Neon made the biggest splash at Cannes acquiring a bunch of properties. Consequently they have a deep roster of films that could play at TFF. I have at least six films (all of which were Cannes selections in various categories) that could come from Neon to Telluride. Here's what we know about each of them. They're arranged from what I feel is most likely to least likely. Films that are on my most recent "Ten Bets" list are indicated with +. Individuals that have been past attendees of TFF are indicated with *.
It Was Just an Accident+. Director Jafar Panahi* (strictly speaking Panahi didn't attend with his film Taxi). Stars: Vahid Mobasseri, Mariam Afshari. Won this year's Palme d'Or at Cannes. Release date: TBD. IMDb description:
A small mishap triggers a chain reaction of ever-growing problems.
I believe that should It Was Just a Simple Accident play Telluride it would be the first time in the festival's history to program the Palme d'Or winner for three years running.
Sentimental Value+. Director: Joachim Trier. Stars: Renate Reinsve, Stellan Skarsgard*, Elle Fanning. Won this year's Grand Prize at Cannes. Release date: Nov. 7th. IMDb description:
An intimate exploration of family, memories, and the reconciliatory power of art.
Sentimental Value finished Cannes with the second best critical rating of any film playing that fest with an 8.04 cumulative rating (out of 10) from Cannes-Ratings.org. In contrast Plame d'Or winner It Was Just a Simple Accident was 7th best with a cumulative of 7.76.
The Secret Agent+. Director: Kleber Mendonça Filho. Stars: Wagner Moura (won Best Actor at Cannes), Maria Fernanda Cândido. The film won the FIPRESCI Prize at Cannes. Release date: TBD. IMDb description:
In 1977, a technology expert flees from a mysterious past and returns to his hometown of Recife in search of peace. He soon realizes that the city is far from being the refuge he seeks.
The Secret Agent was also well regarded critically at Cannes with a cumulative rating of 7.00 which was the 30th best among all films that played at that Fest.
Sirat. Director: Oliver Laxe. Stars: Sergi López, Bruno Núñez Arjona. The film won the Jury Prize at Cannes. Release date: TBD. IMDb description:
A father, accompanied by his son, goes looking for his missing daughter in North Africa.
This is another film with a great critical reception at Cannes. It had a 7.87 cumulative rating which was the 5th best of the entire fest. It could well move onto next Thursday's second iteration of MTFB's Ten Bets for TFF #52.
The ultimate and comprehensive documentary film about the exceptional writer George Orwell.
Orwell: 2+2=5 had the 22nd best critical rating from Cannes ratings.org at 7.13.
Alpha. Director: Julia Ducournau. Stars: Tahar Rahim*, Emma Mackey. The film played in Palme d'Or competition at Cannes. Release date: Sometime in October. IMDb description:
Alpha, 13, is a troubled teenager who lives alone with her mother. Their world comes crashing down the day she comes home from school with a tattoo on her arm.
Alpha's critical reception at Cannes was tough. A 47 on Metacritic and a 50 on Rotten Tomatoes.
The assessment of chances for TFF #52:
It Was Just an Accident 70%
Sentimental Value 60%
The Secret Agent 50%
Sirat 50%
Orwell 2+2=5 45%
Alpha 20%
SPC AND NUREMBURG
Sony Pictures Classics might not be done for TFF #52 yet. SPC announced on Wednesday last week that they had acquired the James Vanderbilt's Nuremburg and plan to release the film on Nov. 7th. The film stars Russell Crowe as Herman Goring and Rami Malek as the U.S. psychiatrist charged with determining if the Nazi's are mentally competent to stand trial. Michael Shannon also stars. In addition to directing Vanderbilt also adapted the screenplay from the book The Nazi and the Psychiatrist.
.m not sold on that
According to the SPC press release the timing of the release coincides with 80th anniversary of the post-war trials held in Nuremburg, Germany, It also just happens to be in the Awards season sweet spot.
So, retrofit the SPC speculation from last week and add Nuremburg to the list of TFF possibilities. I'm not sold on the notion that it does play Telluride but I also don't think it's impossible. Mark at at a current 35% chance to make the TFF cut.
Jordan Ruimy has updated his Venice speculation list as of last Thursday. Of note is his addition of Guillermo Del Toro's Frankenstein and Agnieszka Holland's Franz to the list. Both could also be potentials for T-ride although Ruimy also writes that:
"I’m also hearing that Guillermo del Toro’s long-awaited “Frankenstein” has locked its TIFF premiere..."
Notice that Ruimy doesn't mention what that premiere status is for Toronto but...
Here's Jordan's updated list with what I think has Telluride potential indicated with ***.
BTW...add Kathryn Bigelow's A House of Dynamite to the Netflix list from a couple of weeks back. I'm putting its TFF chances at 30%.
SPRINGSTEEN ON WHITE...OH, AND THE TRAILER AGAIN
I have high hopes that Searchlight brings the Bruce Springsteen biopic Deliver Me from Nowhere to TFF #52. Right now it and Del Toro's Frankenstein are my two big "hope fors".
That said, we know director Scott Cooper has been at Telluride a number of times both with and without projects. We know that the film is being distributed by frequent TFF player Searchlight and we know that the film has a fest friendly release date of Oct. 24th. So, I got that going for me.
This Past week Springsteen talked to The Hollywood Reporter about the film and the actor Jeremy Allen White who plays The Boss in the film. Here's that interview.
And, by the by, we had lots of trouble with linking to the trailer for Deliver Me from Nowhere last week...so here we go again:
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We are proud to unveil our 2025 Festival poster, created by celebrated cartoonist and graphic novelist Daniel Clowes.
Daniel Clowes is one of the most influential and acclaimed figures in contemporary graphic storytelling. Best known for his seminal comic-book series Eightball and the cult classic graphic novel Ghost World, Clowes has defined the landscape of alternative comics for over three decades. His body of work includes Like a Velvet Glove Cast in Iron, David Boring, Ice Haven, The Death-Ray, Wilson, and Patience. His most recent book, Monica, was named by Kirkus Reviews as one of the 100 greatest works of fiction of the 21st century.
Clowes received an Academy Award nomination (with Terry Zwigoff) for the screenplay adaptation of Ghost World and has been recognized with a PEN America Literary Award, as well as numerous Eisner and Harvey Awards. His work has been exhibited in a solo retrospective, Modern Cartoonist, at The Museum of Contemporary Art in Chicago and other venues. His illustrations have appeared on movie posters, album covers, multiple covers of The New Yorker, and even a Hermès scarf. He lives in Oakland, California with his wife Erika.
Clowes shared, “I’m thankful to the Telluride Film Festival for giving me the opportunity to focus my energy on something unassailably positive and noble in these dystopic times.”
Festival director Julie Huntsinger adds, “We’ve long admired Dan’s unparalleled ability to tell emotional, layered stories through both image and language. His poster for this year’s festival is a rich and brilliant capsule of that – a perfect reflection of his depth and wit through the lens of cinema and all that it can offer.”
50 FALL FILM POSSIBILITIES
Ezra Cubero writing for Silver Screen Express has posted his annual set of speculation about which films might go where as regards Telluride, Venice, Toronto and New York. It's an interesting take with some surprise.
I culled the post and began by creating a list of the films that Cubero thinks have some shot at the TFF #52 lineup. It's a lengthy list which follows below (with director listed to the right).
After the Hunt/Guadagnino
Anemone/Day-Lewis
At the Sea/Mundruczo
Blue Moon/Linklater*
Bugonia/Lanthimos
Christy Martin Biopic/Michod
Deliver Me from Nowhere/S. Cooper
Eleanor the Great/Johansson
Hamnet/Zhao
Hedda/DaCosta
The History of Sound/Hermanus
It Was Just an Accident/Panahi
Jay Kelly/Baumbach
Kiss of the Spiderwoman/Condon*
Late Fame/Jones
A Magnificent Life/Chomet
Marty Supreme/J. Safdie
The Mastermind/Reichardt
Nouvelle Vague/Linklater
Rental Family/Hikari
The Rivals of Amziah King/Patterson**
Roofman/Cianfrance
The Secret Agent/Filho
Sentimental Value/Trier
Sirat/Laxe
The Smashing Machine/B. Safdie
Sound of Falling/Schiliniski
* indicates a premiere at Sundance
** indictaes a premiere at South by Southwest
Notable films that Cubero does not mention as a Telluride possibility at all:
Alpha/Ducournau
The Ballad of a Small Player/Berger
Die My Love/Ramsay
Father Mother Sister Brother/Jarmusch
Frankenstein/Del Toro
One Battle After Another/PT Anderson
And one last note. Cubero doesn't pick Bradley Cooper's Is This Thing On for Telluride but does write about it saying: "Telluride might not happen." Which isn't a total rejection of its chances.
Cubero was pretty solid on this last year hitting 13 films he listed as "Yes" or "Maybe" for Telluride that actually made the lineup. His post last year went up on June 24th.
Indiewire has kept track of sales during and after the 78th Cannes Film Fest and I have taken a look at buyers/titles that do not have an announced release date or do have a release date post-Telluride. I also focused on distributors that have had a fairly serious presence at TFF over the past few years.
Here's the rundown beginning with Neon, which went on a buying spree.
Neon (7): It Was Just an Accident, Sirat, The Secret Agent, Alpha, Orwell 2+2=5, Sentimental Value, Splitsville.
Mubi (5): Sound of Falling, Die My Love, The History of Sound, The Mastermind, My Father's Shadow.
Sony Pictures Classics (3): The President's Cake, Eleanor the Great, A Magnificent Life.
Janus Films (3): Magellan, The Love That Remains, Resurrection.
We've entered the Post-Cannes/Pre-Venice phase of the countdown to Telluride. One of the things to look at not that Cannes is over and while we wait for Venice to announce titles and then their schedule is what distributors acquired films that screened at Cannes. Distributors that have had a substantial relationship with Telluride and that do snag new titles during or post-Cannes can spotlight a film that makes the trip to T-ride. The biggest players this year were Neon and Mubi, both of which could position any of their newly acquired films as a TFF #52 offering.
Neon picked up seven films in total. Three of them have been floating around my Telluride radar: A Simple Accident (Palme d'Or winner), Splitsville and Orwell: 2+2+5. Neon also bought Grand Prix winner Sentimental Value in addition to Sirat (Jury Prize), The Secret Agent (Best Director, Best Actor and Alpha.
At this point I don't think its a matter of whether Neon will have films at Telluride, the question instead is how many will it be?
Mubi was almost as active as they acquired five titles. Three of those have been on my screen: Die, My Love, The Mastermind and The History of Sound. In addition to those, Mubi has also picked up Sound of Falling and My Father's Shadow.
Long time Telluride presence Sony Pictures Classics has Eleanor the Great, The Magnificent Life of Marcel Pagnol and The President's Cake. Any or all of these may be on your TFF #52 menu.
Other acquisitions of note include:
Netflix: Nouvelle Vague
Janus: Ressurection
Apple TV+: Bono: Stories of Surrender
A24: Pillion
DOWN THE STRETCH...
As May comes to a close, MTFB really starts to get cranked up in a serious way regarding the potential TFF lineup. The run from June to Labor Day will include weekly looks as distributors that often have films at T-ride and I'll try to assess the TFF chances of some of the titles each outfit has.
Additionally, the weekly list of "Ten Bets" will begin in three weeks. As frequent readers know, I'll start out with 10 guesses and that list will actually expand right up to the day before Telluride announces the TFF #52 lineup (expected Thursday, Aug. 28th.). We also expect Venice to announce its lineup at the end of July and their schedule a couple of weeks into August. And, as has become the norm, Toronto's announcements (last year the first big drop of titles came in the third week of July.
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Here is a look at the final critical reaction from Cannes regarding 13 films that I have my eye on regarding a possible play at Telluride:
From the Palme Competition category (on a 10 point scale):
The Mastermind: 6.53
Die, My Love: 6.51
Young Mothers: 6.33
The History of Sound: 4.88
A Simple Accident: 7.08
From Un Certain Regard:
Eleanor the Great: 5.58
The Chronology of Water: 6.19
Out of Competition:
Splitsville: 5.65
Orwell: 2+2=5: 7.13
The Disappearance of Joseph Mengele: 5.96
The Wave: 5.88
The Love That Remains (Palmason) 7.72
The Magnificent Life of Marcel Pagnol 6.18
Looking at the Palme competitors, the top five currently are:
1) Sirat (Laxe) 7.90
2) Nouvelle Vague (Linklater) 7.22
3) Sentimental Value (Trier) 7.02
4) The Secret Agent (Filho) 7.01
5) Resurrection (Gan) 7.00
FROM SCREEN DAILY
Palme Competition top five (on a 4 point scale)
1) Two Prosecutors 3.1 (Tie)
1) It Was Just an Accident ( A Simple Accident) 3.1 (Tie)
3) The Secret Agent 2.8 (Tie)
3) Sound of Falling 2.8 (Tie)
And tied with a 2.7: Nouvelle Vague, Romeria, Sentimental Value, Young Mothers and The Mastermind.
FROM IONCINEMA
Palme Competition top five ( on a five point scale):
1) Sirat 3.9
2) The Secret Agent 3.6
3) It Was Just an Accident (A Simple Accident) 3.5
4) Sentimental Value 3.4 (tie)
4) Young Mothers 3.4 (tie)
CANNES WINNERS...ANYONE COMING TO TELLURIDE?
From Erik Anderson and Awards Watch...the big winners from Cannes:
MAIN COMPETITION
Palme d’Or: It Was Just an Accident by Jafar Panahi
Gran Prize: Sentimental Value by Joachim Trier
Jury Prize: Sirât by Oliver Laxe and Sound of Falling by Mascha Schilinski
Best Director: Kleber Mendonça Filho for The Secret Agent
Best Actor: Wagner Moura for The Secret Agent
Best Actress: Nadia Melliti for The Little Sister
Best Screenplay: Jean-Pierre and Luc Dardenne for Jeues Mères
Special Prize: Resurrection by Bi Gan
A CERTAIN REGARD
Un Certain Regard Prize: The Mysterious Gaze of the Flamingo by Diego Céspedes
Jury Prize: A Poet by Simón Mesa Soto
Best Director: Tarzan and Arab Nasser for Once Upon a Time in Gaza
Best Actor: Frank Dillane for Urchin
Best Actress: Cleo Diára for I Only Rest in the Storm
Best Screenplay: Harry Lighton for Pillion
So, if you're looking at what happened at Cannes to predict what might play TFF #52 the awards are important and the critical reaction is important...also important is the distribution deals made at the fest. The key moves were made by Neon and Mubi.
At the conclusion of Cannes Neon held the distribution rights for: It Was Just an Accident (Palme winner), Sentimental Value (Gran Prix winner), Sirat (Jury Prize), The Secret Agent (Best Direction), Alpha, Splitsville and Orwell 2+2=5. That's seven films that Neon will be juggling as we head into Fall Film Fest Season.
Mubi post-Cannes has: Die, My Love, The Sound of Falling (Jury Prize), The History of Sound and The Mastermind.
Analysis: It's tempting to think that Neon might have its biggest presence at Telluride ever. That actually almost seems inevitable. All factors taken together would seem to point to Jafar Panahi's Palme winner as the most logical first possibility. The second most likely might be Splitsville. After that, it's pick 'em. I'm kind of feeling Sentimental Value, Orwell and Sirat...but that's just a gut feeling.
Mubi's best bets right now seem to be Die, My Love and The Mastermind. The History of Sound may be off the TFF list of possibilities as a result of a relatively dismal critical reception.
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We're past the half way mark at the 78th Cannes Film festival and here's the check-in on the latest critical response to the films screening there.
Here is a look from regarding 13 films at Cannes that I have my eye on regarding a possible play at Telluride:
From the Palme Competition category (on a 10 point scale):
The Mastermind: 6.16
Die, My Love: 6.52
Young Mothers: 5.75
The History of Sound: 5.09
A Simple Accident: 6.91
From Un Certain Regard:
Eleanor the Great: 5.81
The Chronology of Water: 6.17
Out of Competition:
Splitsville: 6.36
Orwell: 2+2=5: 7.13
The Disappearance of Joseph Mengele: 5.68
The Wave: 5.84
The Love That Remains (Palmason) 7.73
The Magnificent Life of Marcel Pagnol 6.22
Looking at the Palme competitors, the top five currently are:
1) Sirat (Laxe) 7.90
2) Nouvelle Vague (Linklater) 7.25
3) The Secret Agent (Filho) 7.02
4) Resurrection (Gan) 7.00
5) Sentimental Value (Trier) 6.94
FROM SCREEN DAILY
Palme Competition top five (on a 4 point scale)
1) Two Prosecutors 3.1 (Tie)
1) It Was Just an Accident ( A Simple Accident) 3.1 (Tie)
3) The Secret Agent 2.8 (Tie)
3) Sound of Falling 2.8 (Tie)
3) Sentimental Value 2.8 (Tie)
FROM IONCINEMA
Palme Competition top five ( on a five point scale):
1) Sirat 3.9
2) The Secret Agent 3.6
3) It Was Just an Accident (A Simple Accident) 3.4
4) Nouvelle Vague 3.3
5) Sound of Falling 3.2
AND NOW...VENICE?
As Cannes gets close to its conclusion, some attention has begun to focus on what films will play Venice. As frequent readers will recall, inclusion at Venice doesn't necessarily point to a film being selected for Telluride nor does it signal that it won't be. The key to reading the Venetian tea leaves as they relate to Telluride actually comes when Venice releases its schedule. Early screenings in Venice leave the door open for a Venice-Telluride double play.
The point is that paying attention to Venice's choices can still be instructive. To that end, Screen Daily posted on Monday a piece dedicated to possible Venice choices. They include (in the order that the film appears in the piece):
The Smashing Machine/B. Safdie
The Ballad of a Small Player/E. Berger
Hamnet/C. Zhao
Bugonia/Y. Lanthimos
After the Hunt/L. Guadagnino
Father, Mother, Sister, Brother/J. Jarmusch
Rosebush Pruning/K. Ainouz
Sacrifice/R. Gavras
Couture/A. Winocour
Orphan/L. Nemes
No Other Choice/P. Chan-wook
Anemone/R. Day-Lewis
Yellow Letters/I. Catak
Call Me Queen/E. Atef
Whitetail/N. Leopold
A Prayer for the Dying/D. Van Dusen
Chocobar/L. Martel
My guess as to the best Telluride possibilities from this list:
So, I was running down Bradley Cooper's Is This Thing On? on IMDb (the app) a couple of days ago and noticed in the section labeled "Related User Lists" and the first list listed there was labeled "Telluride Possibilities". Like this:
So naturally, I was intrigued. I clicked on "pj_withers" list and discovered that MTFB was the reference:
So my next thought was...from this list of 30 films, what others, in addition to Is This Thing On?, does this list come up on? All of them?
Turns out...no, not all of them. But it does for 11 of them.
Is This Thing On?
Hamnet
Eleanor the Great
After the Hunt
Anemone
Megadoc
The Love That Remains
It Was Just an Accident
The Magnificent Life of Marcel Pagnol
Bucking Fastard
David Lynch: Hollywood Enigma
I'm not sure why these 11 are linked to this "Related User List" the other 19 are not. I'm not sure who "pj_withers" is but I think this is kind of cool.
More on Monday including what won the Palme d'Or at Cannes.
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