Obsessing about the Telluride Film Festival and the film awards season since 2008!
"The best blog out there for predicting what will be going to Telluride."-Matt Neglia, Next Best Picture
"The Nostradamus of Telluride"
-Tim Appelo, Movies for Grownups
Our run through the most common film distribution firms repped at Telluride over the last nine years comes to a conclusion today with a glance at three specialty firms that have often landed a film or films at Telluride: Janus Films, Kino Lorber and a new-ish outfit called 1-2 Special.
But first a re-cap of what we've seen over the past several weeks in regards to the distributors covered so far and the status of the films we included in the assessment for each:
Netflix:
The Ballad of a Small Player -We think headed to Telluride
Jay Kelly- We think headed to Telluride after Venice.
Frankenstein - No Telluride
Left-Handed Girl -Unknown
Nouvelle Vague -We think headed to Telluride
Sony Pictures Classics:
Blue Moon -Unknown (but I like its chances)
The President's Cake-Unknown
Eleanor the Great -No Telluride
A Private Life-No Telluride
A Magnificent Life-Unknown
Unidentified-Unknown
Neon:
It Was Just an Accident-We think headed to Telluride
Sentimental Value-We think headed to Telluride
The Secret Agent-We think headed to Telluride
Sirat-No Telluride
Orwell 2+2=5-Unknown
Alpha-Unknown
A24:
Pillion-Unknown
Marty Supreme-No Telluride...no fests at all as far as we can tell
The Smashing Machine-No Telluride
Eternity-No Telluride
Searchlight:
Rental Family-No Telluride
Is This Thing On?-No Telluride
In the Blink of an Eye-Unknown
Amazon-MGM:
After the Hunt-No Telluride
Preparation for the Next Life-No Telluride-it opens on Sept. 5-so...unlikely.
The Map that Leads to You-No Telluride
Focus Features:
Hamnet-We think headed to Telluride
Bugonia-We feel it's likely headed to Telluride after Venice
The History of Sound-We think headed to Telluride
Anemone-Unlikely for Telluride
Pressure-Unknown
Song Sung Blue-Noop
Mubi:
My Father's Shadow-Unknown
Die, My Love-Unknown
The Mastermind-Unknown
La Grazia- Unknown but opening Venice means it would have time to make it to Telluride.
The other films that I'm fairly confident about are Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere which is being distributed by 20th Century and Tuner which, as far as I can tell doesn't have a U.S. distributor at present.
Now to the specialty distributors (individuals that have attended TFF in the past are designated with *):
JANUS FILMS
The Love That Remains. Dir: Hylnur Palmason* Stars: Ingvar Sigurdsson, Sverrir Gudnason. Played Cannes out of competition. Had a 7.68 cumulative rating (out of 10) on Cannes-ratings.org. Release date: TBD. IMDb description:
Captures a year in the life of a family as the parents navigate their separation. Through intimate vignettes and strange occurrences, the film explores the complexities of family, love, and the impact of shared memories.
Two Prosecutors. Dir. Sergey Loznitsa. Stars: Alexander Kuznetsov, Anatoliy Beliy. Played at Cannes in the Plame competition category and won the French Calais Prize. Had a 6.21 cumulative critical rating. Release date: TBD. IMDb description:
1937: When a prisoner's letter escapes destruction, idealistic prosecutor Kornev uncovers NKVD corruption. His pursuit of justice in Stalin's USSR becomes a dangerous journey into the heart of a system devouring its own.
Resurrection. Dir. Bi Gan. Stars: Jackson Yee, Shu Qi. Played Cannes in the Plame competition category. Bi Gan was awarded a "Special Prize". The film had a stellar 7.44 average critic rating. Release date: TBD. IMDb description:
A woman's consciousness falls into an eternal time zone during a surgical procedure. Trapped in many dreams, she finds the corpse of an android and tries to wake him up by telling endless stories.
Magellan. Dir. Lav Diaz. Stars: Gael García Bernal*, Ângela Azevedo. Played out of competition at Cannes. Had a solid 7.05 average critical rating. Release date: TBD. IMDb description:
A portrayal of Ferdinand Magellan and Beatriz Barbosa's 1517 marriage in Seville, focusing on their brief time together before his departure on the Spanish crown's expedition.
Any or all of these films might make the TFF #52 lineup. Last year Janus had two films make the TFF #51 lineup: All We Imagine as Light and Misericordia. I'm expecting them to back and it seems, at least at the moment, the most likely suspects are The Love That Remains and Magellan. For Magellan it's the presence of Gael Garcia Bernal, A T-ride regular.
KINO LORBER
Amrum. Dir. Fatih Akin. Stars: Diane Kruger, Matthias Schweighöfer. Played out of competition at Cannes and received a middling 6.37 critics average rating. Release date: TBD. IMDb description:
Amrum Island, Spring 1945. In the final days of the war, 12-year-old Nanning braves the treacherous sea to hunt seals, goes fishing at night, and works the nearby farm to help his mother feed the family. Despite the hardship, life on the beautiful, windswept island almost feels like paradise. But when peace finally comes, it reveals a deeper threat: the enemy is far closer than he imagined.
Put Your Soul on Your Hand and Walk. Dir. Sepideh Farsi. Documentary. Played as part of the ACID program at Cannes. Critical average: 8.31. This average was a consensus of 89 critics and was the highest average of any film playing any section at Cannes this year. Release date: TBD. IMDb description:
A filmmaker connects with a Palestinian woman in Gaza who documents life under bombardment. Their 200+ days of digital exchanges, the meaning shifts after Fatem's death in an Israeli attack on 16/ April 2025.
This two films seem the only real Kino Lorber possibilities for TFF #52. I can actually see both making the lineup. KL had Riefenstahl at Telluride last year.
1-2 SPECIAL
Urchin. Dir. Harris Dickinson. Stars: Frank Dillane, Diane Axford. Played Cannes in Un Certain Regard. Frank Dillane was named Best Actor for that section. Critical average 7.16. Release date: TBD. IMDb description:
Mike, a homeless person in London is struggling to break free from a cycle of self-destruction while trying to turn his life around.
Mirrors #3. Dir. Christian Petzold. Stars: Paula Beer, Phillip Froissant. Played in the Filmmakers Fortnight section at Cannes. Critical average: 7.00. Release date: TBD. IMDb description:
After a car crash kills her boyfriend, piano student Laura is taken in by Betty, who witnessed the accident. Living with Betty's family brings comfort, but Laura starts questioning their intentions as time passes.
Dracula. Dir. Radu Jude. Stars: Serban Pavlu, Ilinca Manolache. Played the Lorcano Film Fest. release date: TBD. IMDb description:
A Dracula film made in Transylvania. What does it contain? A vampire hunt. Zombies and Dracula crashing a strike. A science-fiction story about Vlad the Impaler coming back. An adaptation of the first Romanian vampires novella. A love story. A montage film reusing a classic vampire film. A vulgar folktale. A.I. generated kitsch stories. And many delights in a film dealing with this cinema myth.
Kontinental '25. Dir. Radu Jude. Stars: Eszter Tompa, Ilinca Manolache. Played the Berlin Fest where it won Best Screenplay and had a 7.00 critical average. Release date: TBD. IMDb description:
In the capital of Transylvania, Cluj-Napoca, Orsolya serves as a bailiff. She has to evict a homeless guy from a cellar one day, which has disastrous results and sets off a moral problem that Orsolya must try to resolve.
1-2 Special is new, new new so whether it gains any traction vis-a-vis a slot at Telluride is up in the air. Urchin and Mirrors #3 made enough of a splash at Cannes to make me believe that one of those and maybe both could sneak into the TFF #52 lineup.
Chances for the Janus, Kino Lorber, 1-2 Special films for a TFF screening:
The Love That Remains 65%
Magellan 50%
Amrum 50%
Urchin 50%
Mirrors #3 45%
Resurrection 40%
Two Prosecutors 40%
Put Your Soul on Your Hand and Walk 40%
Kontinental '25 25%
Dracula 25%
BUGONIA BOOGIES TO TELLURIDE?
Well, we don't know that but...
World of Reel posted a purported leak of some of the Venice schedule. That derived from an outfit called Objective Festival (French it would appear). From that source a couple of things are interesting.
First, that website flat out claims that it's getting the info from Venice head Alberto Barbera. Here's the "schedule" that they dropped:
August 27 : La Grazia
August 28 : Bugonia, Jay Kelly, Orphan
August 29 : After the Hunt, No Other Choice
August 30 : Frankenstein
August 31 : Father, Mother, Sister, Brother, The Wizard of the Kremlin
September 1 : The Smashing Machine, The Testament of Ann Lee
September 2 : A House of Dynamite, Dead Man's Wire
September 3 : In the Hand of Dante, Duse, The Voice of Hind Rajab
September 4 : Scarlet
September 6 : Dog 51
What this means, if true, is that Bugonia, Jay Kelly and Orphan would screen early enough to make the trip from Italy to Colorado possible. Is that a confirmation for TFF #52 for all three films? No. But it means we can't write them off either. As to Bugonia, see the "Odds and Ends" below from Variety's Clayton Davis.
We were already fairly sure about Jay Kelly but this does move Bugonia and Orphan up on the possibilities list.
It further seems to confirm that we will not be seeing a number of films we already thought were not going to be at Telluride. Of particular note were some films like The Wizard of the Kremlin and In the Hand of Dante won't be Telluride bound.
Clayton Davis at Variety writing about the nature and value of film festivals last Friday says:
"Focus Features, overflowing with awards prospects, will juggle Yorgos Lanthimos’ “Bugonia” and Chloé Zhao’s “Hamnet” at Venice and Telluride, while debuting Daniel Day-Lewis’ acting comeback drama “Anemone” later in the year. Craig Brewer’s “Song Sung Blue,” also from Focus, is being released on Christmas, but will likely bypass the festival circuit."
Takeaways: Hamnet...yes. Bugonia...yes. Anemone and Song Sung Blue...nope.
***NOUVELLE VAGUE HAS A RELEASE DATE
Per The Hollywood Reporter's Scott Feinberg:
"Nouvelle Vague, Richard Linklater’s loving homage to Jean Luc-Godard’s 1960 film Breathless and the French New Wave, which received a 10-minute standing ovation and rave reviews following its world premiere at May’s Cannes Film Festival, will be released in American theaters on Oct. 31 and play on big screens for two weeks before dropping on Netflix on Nov. 14"
"Netflix picked up the film, which debuted in Cannes’ Critics’ Week section, at the festival, and IndieWire can today announce that the streamer will bolster the film with both a theatrical release (on Friday, November 14) and a streaming release on its platform (on Friday, November 28)."
It's Thursday so time to update MTFB's Teb bets for TFF #52.
Here's a review of last week's Ten Bets.
1) It Was Just an Accident/Panahi
2) Blue Moon/Linklater
3) Bugonia/Lanthimos
4) The Love That Remains/Palmason
5) Sentimental Value/Trier
6) The Young Mothers' Home/Dardennes
7) The Secret Agent/Filho
8) Hamnet/Zhao
9) Deliver Me from Nowhere/S. Cooper
10) The Ballad of a Small Player/Berger
And here's the updated Bets for this week:
1) It Was Just an Accident/Panahi
2) Blue Moon/Linklater
3) Bugonia/Lanthimos
4) Sentimental Value/Trier
5) The Young Mothers' Home/Dardennes
6) Hamnet/Zhao
7) Sirat/Oliver Laxe
8) Deliver Me from Nowhere/S. Cooper
9) The Ballad of a Small Player/Berger
10) The Love That Remains/Palmason
A little movement here and there from where things were last week. For the moment The Secret Agent has dropped off the Ten Best...but it could return. The Love That Remains drops down but stays on the list. Sirat enters the list at #7. The top three remain the same with other titles like Sentimental Value and Deliver Me from Nowhere moving up a spot.
Other possibilities: Jay Kelly, Left-Handed Girl, Frankenstein, Eleanor the Great, After the Hunt, Family Rental, Pressure, Marty Supreme, Die My Love, The Mastermind.
VARIETY'S TAKE ON VENICE
We're likely about four weeks away from the announcement of the Venice lineup and then another couple of weeks past that before we find out when the films selected will be scheduled. Those two chunks of information can help illuminate the possible TFF lineup.
I've passed along a couple of sites that have speculated about potential Venice titles and today I add a piece from Variety with their take on what could play there. I've scoured the article for possible TFF titles and here's what I came up with:
The Smashing Machine/B. Safdie
After the Hunt/Guadagnino
Bugonia/Lanthimos
Couture/Winocour
Jay Kelly/Baumbach
Frankenstein/Del Toro
A House of Dynamite/Bigelow
Father, Mother, Sister, Brother/Jarmusch
La Grazia/Sorrentino
Click on the link above for the full article.
ROOFMAN HAS A TRAILER
Derek Cianfrance's next film has a trailer and World of Reel suggests that it will have a presence on the fall film fest circuit including a possible play at Telluride.
WOR head honcho, Jordan Ruimy writes that:
"It’s been a long time coming, but Derek Cianfrance is finally back. His latest feature, “Roofman,” is already being positioned for a major festival run in fall 2025."
And further along in the post from yesterday:
"As for where “Roofman” will land on the festival circuit, maybe Telluride? Definitely TIFF. Venice is an outside shot as Cianfrance has been on the Lido before, but isn’t a regular. It’ll all depend on the quality of the film."
The film stars Channing Tatum who was in Telluride in 2014 with Foxcatcher, Kirsten Dunst who was in T-ride in 2021 with The Power of the Dog and Peter Dinklage who was a TFF tribute recipient with Cyrano also in 2021. Ben Mendelsohn, Juno Temple, Uzo Aduba and LaKeith Stanfield also star. The IMDb description:
The story of the rooftop robber, Jeffrey Manchester, and his time on the lam evading capture.
And here's the trailer via YouTube:
Roofman is dated for release on Oct. 3rd.
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Welp...here it is. 2025's first "Ten Bets" attempt to suss out films that might make the TFF #52 lineup. I do a good deal of research and study to come up with these lists and even then...this first one usually does well to have six titles on it that actually make it to Telluride.
This was my first Ten Bets for last year (with the films that actually made it to TFF #51 in Bold):
1) Anora/Sean Baker
2) The Seed of the Scared Fig/Mohammad Rasoulof
3) Emilia Perez/Jacques Audiard
4) The Room Next Door/Pedro Almodovar
5) Bird/Andrea Arnold
6) Maria/Pablo Larrain
7) Oh, Canada/Paul Schrader
8) The End/Joshua Oppenheimer
9) Queer/Luca Guadagnino
10) Conclave/Edward Berger
So seven out of the Ten...a better than average year.
Here's the track record for the first Ten Bets for the last
The puts the average at 5.8 correct guesses per year.
So, with that caveat, here is your first Ten Bets for TFF #52:
1) It Was Just an Accident/Panahi
2) Blue Moon/Linklater
3) Bugonia/Lanthimos
4) The Love That Remains/Palmason
5) Sentimental Value/Trier
6) The Young Mothers' Home/Dardennes
7) The Secret Agent/Filho
8) Hamnet/Zhao
9) Deliver Me from Nowhere/S. Cooper
10) The Ballad of a Small Player/Berger
Let's see what happens.
DELIVER ME FROM NOWHERE HAS A TRAILER AND POSTER
Here's the poster:
Scott Cooper's Bruce Springsteen biopic, Deliver Me from Nowhere, dropped a trailer for the film. Jeremy Allen White plays "The Boss" with Jeremy Strong as Springsteen's manager Jon Landau. The film reportedly focuses on the period in Springsteen's life when he was working on his Nebraska album.
I have high hopes for the film and also hopes for it to be in Telluride Labor Day. I hope its appearance at #9 on the first Ten Bets list doesn't jinx its chances.
Here's the trailer from YouTube:
DIE MY LOVE HAS A DATE
Jordan Ruimy at World of Reel reports that Lynne Ramsay's Die, My Love will have a wide release on Nov. 7th. That date puts it in place for possible screenings at Telluride, Toronto, Venice, New York and/or London. Ruimy suggests Toronto is a real possibility.
Ramsay was at Telluride in 2011 with We Need to Talk about Kevin. Prior to that she screened Morvern Callar at T-ride in 2002. So, chances aren't impossible for a Telluride run.
The film screened at Cannes back in May to mixed reviews but generally universal praise for Jennifer Lawrence's performance. The Nov. 7th date sets up a reasonable time frame for an awards push for her specifically.
Well, after a 24 hour delay the 78th Cannes Film Festival announced more than a dozen new titles to the fest yesterday scattered across various platforms.
Three films that I had suggested on Monday that could be announced were, in fact, announced. Lynne Ramsay’s Die, My Love was added to competition, Kristen Stewart’s The Chronology of Water went to Un Certain Regard and Hylnur Palmason’s The Love That Remains was added to the Cannes Premieres section. I feel (and have felt) that those three films could potentially also screen at Telluride.
One other film of interest, at least to me, and isn’t really on my T-ride radar, is Ethan Coen’s Honey Don’t which was added to the Midnight section. The IMDb description is literally “Two women ( Margaret Qualley and Aubrey Plaza) take a road trip.”
Reportedly the 78th Cannes Film Festival will add some other films to their lineup in addition to those already announced. Speculation centers on which films/directors will be added and to what sections. The buzz suggests up to three more films might be added to the Palme d'Or competition. A number of reports suggest that Lynne Ramsay's Die, My Love is locked for a competition slot. After that, it's up in the air.
I've had the Ramsay film on the "Potential Cannes to Telluride" list for a good long while. Jordan Ruimy at World of Reel reported late last week that the film had been screened for the fest and as Ruimy writes:
"Lynne Ramsay’s “Die, My Love” just screened for Cannes, and word on the Croisette is—they loved it. Two separate sources tell me the film, starring none other than Robert Pattinson and Jennifer Lawrence, is now officially locked for competition. Buckle up."
Here's the minimal description for the film from IMDb:
"In a remote forgotten rural area, a mother struggles to maintain her sanity as she battles with psychosis."
A couple of other titles that might pop up tomorrow that feel like a post-Cannes Telluride play is possible are Kristen Stewart's The Chronology of Water and Hylnur Palmason's The Love That Remains.
Stay tuned.
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