Ten Bets #5 for TFF #52 / Toronto Adds 11 More Titles...We Deduce / After the Hunt Has a Trailer

TEN BETS #5 FOR TFF #52

Here's last week's Ten Bets:

1) It Was Just an Accident/Panahi

2) Sentimental Value/Trier

3) Bugonia/Lanthimos

4) Hamnet/Zhao

5) Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere/S. Cooper

6) Sirat/Laxe

7) Blue Moon/Linklater

8) After the Hunt/Guadagnino

9) The Young Mothers' Home/Dardenne Brothers

10) Rental Family/Hikari

Other possibilities: The History of Sound, The Ballad of a Small Player, The Love That Remains, The Secret Agent, Jay Kelly, Left-Handed Girl, Frankenstein, Eleanor the Great,  Pressure, Marty Supreme, Die My Love, The Mastermind, The American Revolution.

And now for the updated Ten Bets:

1) Hamnet/Zhao

2) It Was Just an Accident/Panahi

3) Sentimental Value/Trier

4) Bugonia/Lanthimos

5) Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere/S. Cooper

6) Blue Moon/Linklater

7) Sirat/Laxe

8) The Young Mothers' Home/Dardenne Brothers

9) The History of Sound/Hermanus

10) After the Hunt/Guadagnino

Other possibilities: The Ballad of a Small Player, The Love That Remains, The Secret Agent, Jay Kelly, Left-Handed Girl, Frankenstein, Eleanor the Great,  Pressure, Die My Love, The Mastermind, The American Revolution.

Changes in this week's Ten Bets informed by  announcements yesterday from Toronto (see below).  Marty Supreme falls out of "possibilities" amid reports that it will skipping all fall fests.

I'm expecting more announcements coming from other fests next week which should really begin to clear the picture for TFF #52.

TORONTO ADDS 11 MORE TITLES...WE DEDUCE!

Yesterday the Toronto International Film Festival announced 11 more titles for their 2025 edition.  Their premiere designations tell us about films that now seem to be (mostly) ruled out and one that seems to be confirmed for Telluride.  Per Variety here are those films and their designations.

Galas:

The Choral | Nicholas Hytner | UK

World Premiere | Gala Presentation

Homebound | Neeraj Ghaywan | India

North American Premiere | Gala Presentation

Hamnet | Chloé Zhao | UK

Canadian Premiere | Gala Presentation

A Private Life | Rebecca Zlotowski | France

North American Premiere | Gala Presentation

Roofman | Derek Cianfrance | USA

World Premiere | Gala Presentation

She Has No Name | Peter Ho-Sun Chan | China

North American Premiere | Gala Presentation

Special Presentations:

Franz | Agnieszka Holland | Czech Republic/Germany/Poland

World Premiere | Special Presentation

The Lost Bus | Paul Greengrass | USA

World Premiere | Special Presentation

Rental Family | HIKARI | USA/Japan

World Premiere | Special Presentation

Steal Away | Clement Virgo | Canada/Belgium

World Premiere | Special Presentation

Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery | Rian Johnson | USA

World Premiere | Special Presentation

Takeaways:  Looks like Chloe Zhao's Hamnet is headed to Telluride.  Looks like Hikari's Rental Family is not.  I've had Hamnet in the Ten Bets from the jump this year.  I just put in Rental Family last week but its World Premiere designation means that it won't be at Telluride.  The question that raises is does that mean that Bradley Cooper's Is This Thing On? a real TFF #52 possibility from Searchlight?  Because it feels like that's Searchlight's best shot now.

Couple of other things:  A Private Life,  Roofman and Franz were films I had sort of considered as possible TFF candidates and aren't now.  

The mystery about Wake Up Dead Man's International Premiere designation for the BFI/London Fest remains...weird.  I've said it before...the International Premiere designation is "squishy".

None of the other films announced by Toronto were on my radar as Telluride candidates.

Here's the Variety story in its entirety.

AFTER THE HUNT HAS A TRAILER

Luca Guadagnino's After the Hunt moved  up into this week's Ten Bets.  Mostly because its Amazon-MGM's big shot this year and Rental Family dropped out. Now I'm sort of thinking that it does Venice early and then Telluride.  Maybe a Julia Roberts tribute?

World of Reel wrote about it yesterday saying:

“After the Hunt” is set to hit screens on October 10 via Amazon/MGM. As mentioned, it’ll probably hit Venice in September, and probably have a fall rollout in other fests, maybe Toronto and Telluride."

Also perhaps signaling that the film is soon to be announced for Venice, Amazon-MGM dropped a trailer yesterday.  Here that is from YouTube:

I think it looks intriguing.

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Ten Bets #4 for TFF #52 / Rental Family...Telluride Bound? / Next Best Picture Predicts T-Ride / Knives and Definitions

 TEN BETS #4 FOR TFF #52

With every week we get a little bit more backdoor info pointing to certain titles for TFF #52.  You'll see a little bit of that for this week in the stories posted below.  But let's lead off today's re-shuffle of the top ten bets on films for TFF.  Here's a look at last week's Ten Bets:

1) It Was Just an Accident/Panahi

2) Sentimental Value/Trier

3) Bugonia/Lanthimos

4) Hamnet/Zhao

5) Blue Moon/Linklater

6) Sirat/Oliver Laxe

7) Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere/S. Cooper

8) The Young Mothers' Home/Dardenne Brothers

9) The Ballad of a Small Player/Berger

10) After the Hunt/Guadagnino

Other possibilities: The Love That Remains/Palmason, Jay Kelly, Left-Handed Girl, Frankenstein, Eleanor the Great, After the Hunt, The History of Sound, Family Rental, Pressure, Marty Supreme, Die My Love, The Mastermind, The American Revolution.

And this is where I think we are this week:

1) It Was Just an Accident/Panahi

2) Sentimental Value/Trier

3) Bugonia/Lanthimos

4) Hamnet/Zhao

5) Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere/S. Cooper

6) Sirat/Oliver Laxe

7) Blue Moon/Linklater

8) After the Hunt/Guadagnino

9) The Young Mothers' Home/Dardennes Brothers

10) Rental Family/Hikari

Other possibilities: The History of Sound, The Ballad of a Small Player, The Love That Remains/Palmason, The Secret Agent, Jay Kelly, Left-Handed Girl, Frankenstein, Eleanor the Great, After the Hunt, Pressure, Marty Supreme, Die My Love, The Mastermind, The American Revolution.

RENTAL FAMILY...TELLURIDE BOUND?

Oscar winner Brendan Fraser who leads Hikari's Rental Family

Earlier this week I wrote that Hikari's Rental Family had about a 40% shot at playing at telluride  as a part of my assessment of what Searchlight films might be TFF possible.  That, I suggested. made it the most likely Searchlight property to play TFF #52.

Tuesday World of Reel's Jordan Ruimy reported that the film may be TFF bound.  In a story covering the test screenings of the film.  The thrust of the story is that it has been screening to very positive reactions.  As Ruimy is winding up the article he writes:

"What we might have here is the kind of low-key, but emotionally resonant indie that, if positioned well, could ride a wave of goodwill through the fall circuit and into awards season. 

Of course, it it’s too early to tell, but all signs point to a real crowd-pleaser, and there are already murmurs that it’s already clinched a spot at the Telluride Film Festival, which is known to be a major Oscar launchpad."

We can't know how certain Ruimy is, but it seems he has some serious insight.  Consequently Rental Family makes its way onto this week's Ten Bets list.  And for fun, I'll tease that there is at least one other "Bet" among the 10 that I am 90% sure of and another among the week's "possibilities" that I'm also at 90% on.  I really thought about moving the "possibility" into the Ten Bets for the week but had to make late breaking room for Rental Family.

Any guesses?

NEXT BEST PICTURE PREDICTS T-RIDE

Matt Neglia at Next Best Picture posted yesterday a substantial piece predicting where films would land this fall film fest season including TFF #52.  I have included Matt's Telluride predictions and indicated where he and I overlap as follows:

* On the the latest Ten Bets

**Included as a "Possibility"

***Might have been mentioned by MTFB

Here's Matt's list:

Blue Moon – dir. Richard Linklater*

Bugonia-dir. Yorgos Lanthimos*

Chocobar-dir. Lucretia Martel

The Chronology Of Water – dir. Kristen Stewart***

Hamnet (World Premiere) – dir. Chloe Zhao*

The History Of Sound – dir. Oliver Hermanus**

A House Of Dynamite (World Premiere) – dir. Kathryn Bigelow***

It Was Just An Accident – dir. Jafar Panahi*

Jay Kelly-dir. Noah Baumbach**

Left-Handed Girl – dir. Shih-Ching Tsou***

The Love That Remains – dir. Hlynur Pálmason**

A Magnificent Life – dir. Sylvain Chomet***

Mother Mary (World Premiere) – director. David Lowery

The Perfect Neighbor – dir. Geeta Gandbhir

The President’s Cake – dir. Hasan Hadi***

Rental Family (World Premiere) – dir. Hikari*

The Secret Agent – dir. Kleber Mendonça Filho**

Seeds – dir. Brittany Shyne

Sentimental Value – dir. Joachim Trier*

Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere (World Premiere) – dir. Scott Cooper*

Train Dreams – dir. Clint Bentley***

Urchin – dir. Harris Dickinson***

The Young Mothers’ Home – dir. Luc Dardenne & Jean-Pierre Dardenne*

Films that Matt predicts for Venice or Toronto that I want to be at Telluride:

Anemone

The Ballad of a Small Player

Eleanor the Great

Frankenstein

Is This Thing On?

One Battle After Another

Nuremburg

Orwell: 2+2=5

Pressure

You can find Matt's predictions for all four major fall fests here.

KNIVES AND DEFINITIONS

Word from Netflix yesterday that Rian Johnson's Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery will open the BFI/London Film Festival on October 8th.  The interesting thing is that multiple sources reported that as being its International Premiere.  That means it will have World Premiered somewhere else before Oct. 8th.  

Some have speculated that means a Toronto World Premiere.  But hold up.  The traditional definition of "International Premiere" is that it is a first screening outside the film's nation of origin.  Okay.  It's just that Canada is not the "nation of origin" for Wake Up Dead Man.  According to IMDb Pro the nation of origin is the U.S.A.

So, what gives?  That set of circumstances seem to suggest that WUDM World Premieres at Telluride or Fantastic Fest.  The original Knives Out did world premiere at Toronto and followed that with a screening as a part of Fantastic Fest.  Glass Onion also World Premiered at Toronto and then followed that up with a number of high profile regional fests like Mill Valley, Middleburg and Hamptons.

So, again, what gives?  I think there are three possibilities:

1) Wake Up Dead Man plays Telluride.

2) Wake Up Dead Man plays Fantastic Fest and skips Toronto.

3) Wake Up Dead Man World Premieres at Toronto.

The third option is maybe the most likely because the "International Premiere" designation has been inconsistently applied for some time.

I'll keep an eye on this to see how it finally checks out.

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Ten Bets #3 for TFF #52 / Sentimental Value Trailer / The Mastermind Is Dated

TEN BETS #3 FOR TFF #52

We're creeping up on the time frame for rapid discovery of probable Telluride selections based on information as other major fall film festivals begin to announce their lineups.  For Telluride watchers that chiefly means Toronto, Venice and New York.  Fantastic Fest and BFI/London can also provide clues.  

When those announcements happen they can rapidly change the look of the Ten Bets.  It's all about how a fest frames the premiere status for the films that they include.  Designations that are key over the next few weeks are:

"World Premiere" which is exactly what it sounds like...some fest is telling you that they will be hosting the very first public screening of a film anywhere.  So when Toronto tells you they are "World Premiering" a film that means it won't play Telluride which occurs before TIFF.  

Almost all of Venice's titles are World Premieres.  The best info from Venice comes when they announce their actual screening schedule.  As Venice cranks up a couple of days before TFF starts, films that get scheduled the first three or four days of Venice have time to get to the Colorado Rockies for a portion of TFF.

"International Premiere" which means the first screening outside the films country of origin (though "country of origin" can be a slippery term).  This designation can cut both ways in as far as ruling a film in or out of the TFF lineup.  For example, an American film the screens at Telluride and then at Toronto could be designated by TIFF as an "International Premiere".  When TIFF frames their announcement that way it could be a predictor that the film will play T-ride.  On the other hand, if a French film screens at Cannes and  is announced as an International Premiere by Toronto, that means it is skipping Telluride.

"North American Premiere":  A very useful piece of information for announcements from Toronto or New York as it means no previous play at Telluride.

"Canadian" or "New York" premieres.  In each case this kind of  "local" premiere designation almost always means a Telluride play....but NOT 100% of the time.  You have to remember that Sundance, South by Southwest and Fantastic Fest film titles could also result in the "local" designation for either TIFF or NTFF.

Ultimately all of this explains why changes in the early versions of the Ten Bets are glacial and then become quite dynamic when we begin to see announcements from these other major fests. 

All that said, here's a review of last week's Ten Bets for TFF #52:

1) It Was Just an Accident/Panahi

2) Blue Moon/Linklater

3) Bugonia/Lanthimos

4) Sentimental Value/Trier

5) The Young Mothers' Home/Dardennes

6) Hamnet/Zhao

7) Sirat/Oliver Laxe

8) Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere/S. Cooper

9) The Ballad of a Small Player/Berger

10) The Love That Remains/Palmason

Other possibilities: Jay Kelly, Left-Handed Girl, Frankenstein, Eleanor the Great, After the Hunt, Family Rental, Pressure, Marty Supreme, Die My Love, The Mastermind.

And now, this week's Ten Bets:

1) It Was Just an Accident/Panahi

2) Sentimental Value/Trier

3) Bugonia/Lanthimos

4) Hamnet/Zhao

5) Blue Moon/Linklater

6) Sirat/Oliver Laxe

7) Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere/S. Cooper

8) The Young Mothers' Home/Dardenne Brothers

9) The Ballad of a Small Player/Berger

10) After the Hunt/Guadagnino

Other possibilities: The Love That Remains/Palmason, Jay Kelly, Left-Handed Girl, Frankenstein, Eleanor the Great, After the Hunt, The History of Sound, Family Rental, Pressure, Marty Supreme, Die My Love, The Mastermind, The American Revolution.

Comment: Sentimental Value and Hamnet both gain a couple of spots.  Sirat and Deliver Me from Nowhere move up one spot. Blue Moon and Young Mothers' Home lose some ground and, for now, After the Hunt supplants The Love That Remains in the #10 spot.

SENTIMENTAL VALUE TRAILER

Currently sitting at #2 in the Latest Ten Bets is Joachim Trier's Sentimental Value.  The film won the Grand Prix at Cannes in May and is considered a hot property moving through the fall fest season.  Neon is the film's distributor and they're larder is stacked with Cannes projects that they acquired during and after the festival.

Mubi released a trailer a couple of days ago.  Here it is from YouTube:

Sentimental Value is set to open in the United States on Nov. 7th.

THE MASTERMIND IS DATED

Nest Best Picture revealed this week that Mubi will release Kelly Reichardt's The Mastermind theatrically in the U.S. on Oct. 17th.

That date means it could line up potential plays at Telluride, Toronto and/or New York.  Reichardt was in Telluride in 2019 with the enigmatic First Cow.  

The Mastermind played the Cannes Fest in the Palme d'Or competition.  It stood somewhere in the middle of the competition group critically with a 6.29 average rating as reported by Cannes-Ratings.org.

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Ten Bets #2 for TFF #52 / Variety 's Take on Venice / Roofman has a Trailer

TEN BETS #2 FOR TFF #52

It's Thursday so time to update MTFB's Teb bets for TFF #52.

Here's a review of last week's Ten Bets.

1) It Was Just an Accident/Panahi

2) Blue Moon/Linklater

3) Bugonia/Lanthimos

4) The Love That Remains/Palmason

5) Sentimental Value/Trier

6) The Young Mothers' Home/Dardennes

7) The Secret Agent/Filho

8) Hamnet/Zhao

9) Deliver Me from Nowhere/S. Cooper

10) The Ballad of a Small Player/Berger

And here's the updated Bets for this week:

1) It Was Just an Accident/Panahi

2) Blue Moon/Linklater

3) Bugonia/Lanthimos

4) Sentimental Value/Trier

5) The Young Mothers' Home/Dardennes

6) Hamnet/Zhao

7) Sirat/Oliver Laxe

8) Deliver Me from Nowhere/S. Cooper

9) The Ballad of a Small Player/Berger

10) The Love That Remains/Palmason

A little movement here and there from where things were last week.  For the moment The Secret Agent has dropped off the Ten Best...but it could return.  The Love That Remains drops down but stays on the list.  Sirat enters the list at #7.  The top three remain the same with other titles like Sentimental Value and Deliver Me from Nowhere moving up a spot.

Other possibilities: Jay Kelly, Left-Handed Girl, Frankenstein, Eleanor the Great, After the Hunt, Family Rental, Pressure, Marty Supreme, Die My Love, The Mastermind.

VARIETY'S TAKE ON VENICE

We're likely about four weeks away from the announcement of the Venice lineup and then another couple of weeks past that before we find out when the films selected will be scheduled.  Those two chunks of information can help illuminate the possible TFF lineup.

I've passed along a couple of sites that have speculated about potential Venice titles and today I add a piece from Variety with their take on what could play there.  I've scoured the article for possible TFF titles and here's what I came up with:

The Smashing Machine/B. Safdie

After the Hunt/Guadagnino

Bugonia/Lanthimos

Couture/Winocour

Jay Kelly/Baumbach

Frankenstein/Del Toro

A House of Dynamite/Bigelow

Father, Mother, Sister, Brother/Jarmusch

La Grazia/Sorrentino

Click on the link above for the full article.

ROOFMAN HAS A TRAILER

Derek Cianfrance's next film has a trailer and World of Reel suggests that it will have a presence on the fall film fest circuit including a possible play at Telluride.

WOR head honcho, Jordan Ruimy writes that:

"It’s been a long time coming, but Derek Cianfrance is finally back. His latest feature, “Roofman,” is already being positioned for a major festival run in fall 2025." 

 

And further along in the post from yesterday:

"As for where “Roofman” will land on the festival circuit, maybe Telluride? Definitely TIFF. Venice is an outside shot as Cianfrance has been on the Lido before, but isn’t a regular. It’ll all depend on the quality of the film."

The entire article can be accessed here.

The film stars Channing Tatum who was in Telluride in 2014 with Foxcatcher, Kirsten Dunst who was in T-ride in 2021 with The Power of the Dog and Peter Dinklage who was a TFF tribute recipient with Cyrano also in 2021.  Ben Mendelsohn, Juno Temple, Uzo Aduba and LaKeith Stanfield also star.  The IMDb description:

The story of the rooftop robber, Jeffrey Manchester, and his time on the lam evading capture.

And here's the trailer via YouTube:

Roofman is dated for release on Oct. 3rd.

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The First Ten Bets for TFF #52 / Deliver Me from Nowhere Has a Trailer / Die My Love Has a Date

THE FIRST TEN BETS FOR TFF #52

Welp...here it is.  2025's first "Ten Bets" attempt to suss out films that might make the TFF #52 lineup.  I do a good deal of research and study to come up with these lists and even then...this first one usually does well to have six titles on it that actually make it to Telluride.

This was my first Ten Bets for last year (with the films that actually made it to TFF #51 in Bold):

1) Anora/Sean Baker

2) The Seed of the Scared Fig/Mohammad Rasoulof

3) Emilia Perez/Jacques Audiard

4) The Room Next Door/Pedro Almodovar

5) Bird/Andrea Arnold

6) Maria/Pablo Larrain

7) Oh, Canada/Paul Schrader

8) The End/Joshua Oppenheimer

9) Queer/Luca Guadagnino

10) Conclave/Edward Berger

So seven out of the Ten...a better than average year.

Here's the track record for the first Ten Bets for the last 

2011: 8/10
2012: 5/10
2013: 6/10
2014: 7/10
2015: 4/10
2016: 3/10
2017: 7/10
2018: 5/10

2019: 4/10

2020: No fest

2021: 8/10

2022: 6/10

2023: 6/10

2024: 7/10

The puts the average at 5.8 correct guesses per year.

So, with that caveat, here is your first Ten Bets for TFF #52:

1) It Was Just an Accident/Panahi

2) Blue Moon/Linklater

3) Bugonia/Lanthimos

4) The Love That Remains/Palmason

5) Sentimental Value/Trier

6) The Young Mothers' Home/Dardennes

7) The Secret Agent/Filho

8) Hamnet/Zhao

9) Deliver Me from Nowhere/S. Cooper

10) The Ballad of a Small Player/Berger

Let's see what happens.

DELIVER ME FROM NOWHERE HAS A TRAILER AND POSTER

Here's the poster:

Scott Cooper's Bruce Springsteen biopic, Deliver Me from Nowhere, dropped a trailer for the film.  Jeremy Allen White plays "The Boss" with Jeremy Strong as Springsteen's manager Jon Landau.  The film reportedly focuses on the period in Springsteen's life when he was working on his Nebraska album.

I have high hopes for the film and also hopes for it to be in Telluride Labor Day.  I hope its appearance at #9 on the first Ten Bets list doesn't jinx its chances.

Here's the trailer from YouTube:

 

DIE MY LOVE HAS A DATE

Jordan Ruimy at World of Reel reports that Lynne Ramsay's Die, My Love will have a wide release on Nov. 7th.  That date puts it in place for possible screenings at Telluride, Toronto, Venice, New York and/or London.  Ruimy suggests Toronto is a real possibility.  

Ramsay was at Telluride in 2011 with We Need to Talk about Kevin.  Prior to that she screened Morvern Callar at T-ride in 2002.  So, chances aren't impossible for a Telluride run.

The film screened at Cannes back in May to mixed reviews but generally universal praise for Jennifer Lawrence's performance.  The Nov. 7th date sets up a reasonable time frame for an awards push for her specifically.

Ruimy's report is here.

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