The Oscar Clearinghouse #12...Last Call???

Probably the last post til it's all over on Sunday night. Here's the best guesses...

Best Picture: The Hurt Locker

Best Director: Kathryn Bigelow-The Hurt Locker

Best Actor: Jeff Bridges-Crazy Heart

Best Actress: Meryl Streep-Julie and Julia (bold, huh?)

Best Supporting Actress: Mo'Nique-Precious

Best Supporting Actor-Christoph Waltz-Inglourious Basterds

Original Screenplay: Inglourious Basterds (bit of a surprise over Hurt Locker)

Adapted Screenplay: Up in the Air

Animated Film: Up

Foreign: The White Ribbon

Cinematography: The Hurt Locker (bit of a surprise over Avatar...tho White Ribbon w/n surprise me either)

Film Editing: The Hurt Locker

Art Direction: Avatar

Sound Editing: Avatar

Sound Mixing: Avatar

Visual Effects: Avatar

Makeup: Star Trek

Score: Up

Song: The Weary Kind-Crazy Heart

Costumes: Young Victoria

Documentary: The Cove

Short Doc: The Last Truck

Live Short: The Door

Animated Short: A Matter of Loaf and Death

Comments:

1) Only 5 categories are the least bit competitive, if the conventional wisdom is correct...Actress (and that's probably just me that thinks it's competitive. I seem to be very lonely picking Streep...everything else says it's Bullock's to win), Foreign Film, Editing, Cinematography and Original Screenplay.

2) My totals if correct: Hurt Locker-4, Avatar-4, Up-2, Crazy Heart-2 and Inglourious Basterds-2...as your only multiple winners.

3) Telluride films win 4 Oscars if I'm right...Adapted Screenplay for Up in the Air, Foreign Film for The White Ribbon, Short Doc-The Last Truck and Live Short-The Door.

And this last word...Jeff Wells at Hollywood Elsewhere speculates that "Love and Other Drugs" featuring Anne Hathaway and Jake Gyllenhall may be in line to play at TFF #37...so the game begins anew!

See you on the other side...

TFF #36 and The Oscar Clearingouse #11

With less than two weeks until Oscar night...almost no suspense...

TFF #36 films in bold

Here's the distilled wisdom from The Envelope, And the Winner Is, The Oscar Guy, Gurus of Gold, The Awards Circuit, Rope of Silicon and Film Misery...

Best Picture: The Hurt Locker edges Avatar. No other really serious competition. If there was an upset...Inglourious Basterds or Up in the Air. Least Likely Winner: The Blind Side

Best Director: Kathryn Bigelow is WAY OUT FRONT. Cameron is a distant second. Least Likely: Lee Daniels for Precious

Best Actor: Jeff Bridges in a walk. Clooney a distant challenger. Least Likely: Morgan Freeman.

Best Actress: Sandra Bullock has a big lead with Meryl Streep her only real competition (this is where I think an upset happens and Streep wins). Least Likely: Helen Mirren

Best Supporting Actor: Engrave Christoph Waltz's trophy now. Purported challenge: Harrelson. Least Likely: Matt Damon

Best Supporting Actress: Mo'Nique (and has been for months)...if there were a challenger it might be: Anna Kendrick (but she won't be). Least Likely: Penelope Cruz

Best Adapted Screenplay: Up in the Air is the massive favorite. Challenger...uh...Precious? Least Likely: In the Loop

Best Original Screenplay: An actual fight here! Hurt Locker has a tiny lead over Basterds (I'm leaning towards Basterds)...Least Likely: The Messenger

Animated: Up...Duh. Least Likely: The Secret of Kells

Documentary: The Cove has a substantial edge over Food Inc. Least Likely: Which Way Home

Foreign: Hey...an actual contested category...a 3 way battle brewing between The White Ribbon, A Prophet and The Secret of Her Eyes

Short Doc: The Last Truck way out front

Live Short: The Door in the lead

Art Direction: Avatar is the prohibitive favorite...Least Likely: Parnassus

Cinematography: A close race with Avatar barely in front of The Hurt Locker. Least Likely: Harry Potter

Costumes: Young Victoria is the prohibitive favorite. Least Likely: Parnassus

Film Editing: A close battle here again with Hurt Locker leading Avatar slightly. Least Likely: Precious

Sound Editing: Avatar is way out front. Least Likely: Inglourious Basterds

Sound Mixing: Again Avatar in a walk. Least Likely: Transformers

Visual Effects: Anyone think Avatar doesn't win this? Least Likely...well the other two

Score: Up has a big lead here. Least Likely: The Hurt Locker

Song: The Weary Kind from Crazy Heart easily. Least Likely: Paris 36

Animated Short: A Matter of Loaf and Death

Final thoughts and personal predictions next week...

TFF #36 and The Oscar Clearinghouse

The Official Telluride Film Festival Website has posted a brief release touting the films that played the fest this year and have been Oscar nominated.

You can find it here:

http://telluridefilmfestival.org/news/2010-02

Coming this week...charting the favorites to win on March 7...

TFF #36 and The Oscar Clearinghouse # 10

Here are this morning's Oscar nominations courtesy of Entertainment Weekly:

Best Picture:

Avatar, The Blind Side, District 9, An Education, The Hurt Locker, Inglourious Basterds, Precious, A Serious Man, Up, Up in the Air

Comment: Blind Side in and Invictus out. I'm not surprised that Invictus didn't get nominated...I am a little surprised that The Blind Side is what grabbed what had been its spot for the last several months. The Chart goes

Best Actor: Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart, George Clooney, Up in the Air, Colin Firth, A Single Man, Morgan Freeman, Invictus, Jeremy Renner, The Hurt Locker.

Comment: Chart and I both said these five. Seems the Invictus swoon did not sink either Freeman or Damon.
Best Actress: Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side, Helen Mirren, The Last Station, Carey Mulligan, An Education, Gabourey Sidibe, Precious, Meryl Streep, Julie & Julia.

Comment: Again, the chart and I 5 for 5...no surprises at all here.

Best Supporting Actor: Matt Damon, Invictus, Woody Harrelson, The Messenger, Christopher Plummer, The Last Station, Stanley Tucci, The Lovely Bones, Christoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds.

Comment: Again 5 for 5 with the chart. I lose out having picked The Hurt Locker's Anthony Mackie instead of Damon. I was personally still hoping for a little love for Alfred Molina.

Best Supporting Actress: Penélope Cruz, Nine, Vera Farmiga, Up in the Air, Maggie Gyllenhaal, Crazy Heart, Anna Kendrick, Up in the Air, Mo’Nique, Precious .

Comment: The chart hits 4 of 5...missing Maggie Gyllenhall for Julianne Moore. i missed that as well in addition to thinking Samantha Morton could supplant Penelope Cruz...so I go 3 for 5.

Best Director: Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker, James Cameron, Avatar, Lee Daniels, Precious, Jason Reitman, Up in the Air, Quentin Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds.

Comment: Done and done.

Best Original Screenplay: Mark Boal, The Hurt Locker, Alessandro Camon & Oren Moverman, The Messenger, Joel Coen & Ethan Coen, A Serious Man, Pete Docter, Bob Peterson & Tom McCarthy, Up, Quentin Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds .

Comment: Chart and I 4 for 5...missed The Messenger for (500) Days of Summer...and makes you wonder if The Messenger was kind of close in the Best Picture category?

Best Adapted Screenplay: Jesse Armstrong, Simon Blackwell, Armando Iannucci & Tony Roche, In the Loop, Neill Blomkamp & Terri Tatchell, District 9, Geoffrey Fletcher, Precious, Nick Hornby, An Education, Jason Reitman & Sheldon Turner, Up in the Air .

Comment: The Chart goes 4 for 5 and I go 3 for 5. The Chart and I both miss "In the Loop" I also had Julie and Julia instead of District 9. In the Loop wasn't a total surprise as it had been floating around the chart on and off for quite some time.

Best Animated Film: Coraline, Fantastic Mr. Fox, The Princess and the Frog, The Secret of Kells, Up.

Comment: Me and the chart 4 for 5. "The Secret of the Kells"???What the?

Best Foreign Language Film: El Secreto do Sus Ojos (Argentina), Un Prophete (France), The White Ribbon (Germany), Ajami (Israel), The Milk of Sorrow (Peru).

Comment:3 for 5 for the chart and me...I think the absence of Samson and Delilah is kind of a surprise.
Best Art Direction: Avatar, The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus, Nine, Sherlock Holmes, The Young Victoria .

Comment: Man, am I glad I didn't pick the tech categories this year...the chart goes 1 for 5...sheesh...It got Avatar right and missed everything else.

Best Cinematography:Avatar, Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince, The Hurt Locker, Inglourious Basterds, The White Ribbon

Comment:Chart hits 4 for 5 missing Harry Potter with Nine

Best Costume Design: Bright Star, Coco Before Chanel, The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus, Nine, The Young Victoria.

Comment: Chart goes 3 for 5 missing Parnassus and Coco with Basterds and Sherlock.

Best Documentary: Burma VJ, The Cove, Food, Inc., The Most Dangerous Man in America: Daniel Ellsberg and the Pentagon Papers, Which Way Home.

Comment: Chart was a whopping 2 for 5. Most Dangerous Man was sort of a surprise...Which Way Home is a stunner.

Best Editing: Avatar, District 9, The Hurt Locker, Inglourious Basterds, Precious.

Comment: $ for 5. Missing Precious for UITA...

Best Makeup: Il Divo, Star Trek, The Young Victoria.

Comment: 1 for 3...

Best Score: Avatar, Fantastic Mr. Fox, The Hurt Locker, Sherlock Holmes, Up.

Comment: Chart goes 3 for 5. Missed Fox and The Hurt Locker.

Best Song: “Almost There,” The Princess and the Frog, Randy Newman,

“Down in New Orleans,” The Princess and the Frog, Randy Newman

“Loin de Paname,” Paris 36, Reinhardt Wagner & Frank Thomas

“Take It All,” Nine, Maury Weston

“The Weary Kind,” Crazy Heart, T-Bone Burnett & Ryan Bingham

Comment: 3 for 5 with Take It All being the big surprise.

Best Sound Editing: Avatar, The Hurt Locker, Inglourious Basterds, Star Trek, Up

Comment: 3 for 5...

Best Sound Mixing: Avatar, The Hurt Locker, Inglourious , Trek, Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen

Comment: 4 for 5

Best Visual Effects: Avatar, District 9, Star Trek

Comment: Got 'em...there's a shocker!

Best Documentary Short: China’s Unnatural Disaster: The Tears of Sichuan Province, The Last Campaign of Governor Booth Gardner, The Last Truck: Closing of a GM Plant, Music by Prudence, Rabbit à la Berlin

Best Animated Short: French Roast, Granny O’Grimm’s Sleeping Beauty, The Lady and the Reaper (La Dama y la Muerte) Logorama, A Matter of Loaf and Death

Best Live-Action Short:The Door, Instead of Abracadabra, Kavi, Miracle Fish, The New Tenants

TFF #36 and The Oscar Clearinghouse #7

Director's Guild Noms are out: Kathryn Bigelow/Hurt Locker, James Cameron/Avatar, Quentin Tarantino/Inglorious Basterds, Lee Daniels/Precious and Jason Reitman/Up in the Air.

Daniels edges out Eastwood...Daniels gets the boost he needed after the Golden Globes snub.

Now on to the Clearinghouse update...EXPANDED! (Now more categories). TFF in CAPS & BOLD

Best Picture: 1) UP IN THE AIR, 2) The Hurt Locker, 3) Avatar, 4) Precious, 5) Inglorious Basterds, 6) Invictus, 7) AN EDUCATION, 8) Up, 9) A Serious Man, 10) Nine

Outsiders: The Messenger, District 9, THE LAST STATION, A Single Man, Crazy Heart

Gone: The Lovely Bones, Star Trek

Hot: Avatar, Inglorious Basterds, District 9 and Crazy Heart

Not: Invictus, Nine

Comment: The Lovely Bone collapse is complete as it drops entirely off the top 15 contenders for Best Pic...Nine's collapse is on-going and I expect it to continue. As a matter of fact, I think that the top 5 spots are solid, and that everything after that is still in play. I think it's likely that An Education and Invictus support is soft, that Up will suffer because it's animated and A Serious Man is awfully "small" and "nichey"...That means that any one of or maybe all 5 of the "outsiders" are still in play for a best Pic nomination.

Director: 1) K. Bigelow/Hurt Locker, 2) J. Cameron/Avatar, 3) J. REITMAN/UP IN THE AIR, 4) Q. Tarantino/Basterds, 5) C. Eastwood/Invictus

Also...L. Daniels/Precious, L. SCHERFIG/AN EDUCATION, Coen Bros./Serious Man, M. HANEKE/THE WHITE RIBBON, J. CAMPION/BRIGHT STAR, P. Jackson/Lovely Bones

Gone: R. Marshall/Nine

Hot: Tanatino and Haneke

Not: Reitman and Daniels...although as noted above, the DGA nod today probably changes this assessment

Comment: Bigelow, Cameron and Reitman are locks...then Eastwood, Daniels and Tarantino are duking it out for the last 2 spots...although Tarantino is closing in on lock status as well.

Best Actor: 1) G. CLOONEY/UP IN THE AIR, 2) J. Bridges/Crazy Heart, 3) C. Firth/A Single man, 4) M. Freeman/Invictus, 5) J. Renner/Hurt Locker

Others: D. Day-Lewis/Nine, V. MORTENSEN/THE ROAD, T. Maguire/Brothers, M. Sthulbarg/A Serious Man, B. Foster/The Messenger.

Hot: Maguire

Not:

Gone: Matt Damon/The Informant

Comment: The separation between the top five and the rest is now substantial. Renner has established himself as a probable nominee. Mortensen may have the best chance to sneak in and unseat Freeman or Renner...

Best Actress: 1) C. MULLIGAN/AN EDUCATION, 2) M. Streep/Julie & Julia, 3) G. Sidibe/Precious, 4) S. Bullock/Blind Side, 5) H. MIRREN/LAST STATION

Others: M. Cotillard/Nine, A. CORNISH/BRIGHT STAR, S. Ronan/Lovely Bones, E. Blunt/Young Victoria, P. Cruz/Broken Embraces.

Hot: Blunt

Not:

Gone:M. Gyllenhall/Crazy Heart

Comment: The 5 nominations are done.

Supporting Actor: 1) C. Waltz/Inglorious Basterds, 2) C. PLUMMER/LAST STATION, 3) W. Harrelson/The Messenger, 4) S. Tucci/Lovely Bones, 5) M. Damon/Invictus

Others: A. MOLINA/AN EDUCATION, C. McKay/Orson Welles and Me, A. Baldwin/It's Complicated, A. Mackie/Hurt Locker, P. SAARSGARD/AN EDUCATION

Hot:

Not: A. Molina

Gone:

Comment: Surprisingly, Tucci has been able to withstand the collapse of The Lovely Bones...so far. I think he and Damon are still vulnerable. McKay and Molina still have some hope.

Supporting Actress: 1) Mo'Nique/Precious, 2) A. KENDRICK/UP IN THE AIR, 3) VERA FARMIGA/UP IN THE AIR, 4) Julianne Moore/A Single Man, 5) Penelope Cruz/Nine

Others: S. Morton/The Messenger, M. Cotillard/Public Enemies, J. Dench/Nine, M. Laurent/Inglorious Basterds and D. Kruger/Inglorious Basterds.

Hot: Cotillard

Not:

Gone: Natalie Portman/Brothers and Sigourney Weaver/Avavtar

Comment: The top 4 spots seem solid. I think Cruz will drop and be replaced by Morton.

Adapted Script: 1) UP IN THE AIR, 2) AN EDUCATION, 3) Precious, 4) Invictus, 5) District 9 (although there is some buzz that it's not eligible!!!)

Others: Fantastic Mr. Fox, Where the Wild Things Are, Julie and Julia, THE LAST STATION, In the Loop

Hot: Dist. 9, Fox, and Wild Things

Not: Julie and Julia

Gone: Nine, Lovely Bones, A Single Man

Comment: An incredibly fluid category. The top three seem locked...then it's any one's guess for the last two spots. Gotta say...surprised that A Single Man dropped off the top ten.

Original Script: 1) The Hurt Locker, 2) Inglorious Basterds, 3) A Serious Man, 4) Up, 5) (500) Days of Summer

Others: The Messenger, It's Complicated, Avatar, WHITE RIBBON, BRIGHT STAR

Hot: The Messenger

Not: Avatar

Gone: District 9 (moved to Adapted)

Comment: The top 5 might have this locked already.

TECH Categories!

Art Direction: Inglorious Basterds, Nine, Avatar, BRIGHT STAR, Public Enemies...

Cinematography:Inglorious Basterds, Nine, The Hurt Locker, BRIGHT STAR, Avatar...

Film Editing: UP IN THE AIR, Avatar, The Hurt Locker, Nine, Inglorious Basterds...

Score: Up, Avatar, The Informant, Sherlock Holmes, Where the Wild Things Are...

Sound Editing: Avatar, The Hurt Locker, Up Star Trek, Transformers...

Sound Mixing: Avatar, Transformers, Star Trek, Up, The Hurt Locker...

Costume: BRIGHT STAR, Nine, Young Victoria, Inglorious Basterds, Sherlock Holmes...

Song: Crazy Heart, Nine, Princess and the Frog (twice) and Everybody's Fine...

Documentary: The Cove, Food Inc., Every little Step, Burma VJ, Mugabe and the White African

Foreign Film: A PROPHET, THE WHITE RIBBON, SAMSON AND DELILAH, Letters to father Jacob, Broken Promise.

Predicted Nominations:

The Hurt Locker, Avatar, Inglorious Basterds-8

UP IN THE AIR, Nine-7

Up-6 (includes anticipated Best Animation nom)

Invictus-5

Precious-4

AN EDUCATION, BRIGHT STAR-3

THE LAST STATION, A Single Man, A Serious Man, Crazy Heart-2

Telluride connected other possible nominations:

An Education-3

The Last Station-3

The White Ribbon-3

Bright Star-3

The Road-2

Coco Before Chanel-1

Toatal TFF #36 Nominations-18 (includes 3 in Foreign Film...excludes Animation, Short Doc)

Additional TFF #36 possibles: 15

Final thoughts:

Will Nine's collapse eat its Tech nominations?

Does the PGA nom mean Star Trek might stage a Best Pic comeback?

Do The Messenger, District 9 or The Last Station have enough steam to move into the Best Picture race in the next three weeks?

The Road sits at #16 on the Best Pic chart and #11 on Adapted Screenplay...any chance in either category?

Can anyone derail Waltz or Mo'Nique?

Nominations are 3 and 1/2 weeks away!

TFF #36 and The Oscar Clearinghouse #6

Avatar is making a move on the Clearinghouse's lists.





Here is the latest update of our compilation of a number of Oscar prediciton sights and lists...highlighting the connections to TFF #36 (CAPS AND BOLD)

Best Picture- 1) UP IN THE AIR, 2) The Hurt Locker, 3) Precious, 4) Invictus, 4) Nine (tie), 6) Avatar, 7) Up, 8) AN EDUCATION, 9) Inglourious Basterds, 10) A Serious Man.

In the Hunt: The Lovely Bones, The Messenger, A Single Man,THE LAST STATION, Star Trek.

Comment: Big Mo...Avatar, Inglourious Basterds, The Messenger and Star Trek.

Losing Mo...An Education and The Lovely Bones (And I mean BIG TIME!).

Gone from the list: BRIGHT STAR, THE ROAD, and Julie and Julia.

My personal guess of the four big gainers is the The Messenger has legs and that both Avatar and Inglourious Basterds will lose some steam over the next few weeks...(Avatar because a number of reviews are saying the tech is great, but the movie itself...not so much and I think that Inglourious may have peaked...it did have a good week this week...but I think its violence may hold it back.)...I also still think that Last Station and now, The Messenger may have the best shot at moving onto the list of 10 nominees of those films that are not currently in the top 10...Other top 10 that may be at risk...An Education and Nine (the reviews for Nine are less than stellar). Can The Road sneak back into the conversation? It's Rotten Tomatoes average is 24 points better than Nine.

Also, saw Invictus this weekend...nice movie, decent perfromances from Freeman and Damon...but Oscar worthy? Nope. Will that matter to the Academy? Don't know.

Best Director: 1) JASON REITMAN/UITA, 2) Kathryn Bigelow/Hurt Locker, 3) Lee Daniels/Precious, 4) James Cameron/Avatar, 5) Clint Eastwood/Invictus

Sniffin' Around: Rob Marshall/Nine, Quentin Tarantino/Basterds, LONE SCHERFIG/EDUCATION, Coen Bros/Serious Man, and Peter Jackson/Bones.

Comment: Big Mo is with: Lee Daniels (weird since he got no Golden Globe love), James Cameron and Quentin Tarantino.

Losing ground: Rob Marshall and Peter Jackson

Goners: None

If Inglourious has legs, then Tarantino will move into the top 5...I think the only two sure bets at this point are my friend Jason Reitman and Kathryn Bigelow...The Lovely Bones collapse has almost swallowed Jackson...

Best Actor: 1) GEORGE CLOONEY/UITA, 2) Jeff Bridges/Crazy Heart, 3) Colin Firth/Single Man, 4) Morgan Freeman/Invictus, 5) Jeremy Renner/Hurt Locker

In Play: Daniel Day-Lewis/Nine, VIGGO MORTENSEN/THE ROAD, Michael Stuhlbarg/Serious Man, Matt Damon/The Informant, and Ben Foster/The Messenger.

Off the chart: Robert DeNiro/Everybody's Fine

Movers: Jeff Bridges and Ben Foster...Goin' South: Morgan Freeman

Comment: SAG noms seem to indicate that Day-Lewis and Nine (also Rob Marshall's decline in the director's race) are losing ground across the board. See above note about the reviews...may be having an impact already.

Best Actress: 1) CAREY MULLIGAN/AN EDUCATION, 2) Meryl Streep/Julie & Julia, 3) Gaby Sidibe/Precious, 4) HELEN MIRREN/LAST STATION, 5) Sandra Bullock/The Blind Side.

Seeking: Marion Cotillard/Nine, ABBIE CORNISH/BRIGHT STAR, Saroise Ronan/ Lovely Bones, and Penelope Cruz/Broken Embraces

Hot: Bullock and Cruz

Not: Cornish and Ronan

Gone: Michelle Monaghan/Trucker

Comment: The top 4 remain the same as our last post (3 weeks ago). Sandra Bullock has ascended like a rocket...

Best Supporting Actor: 1) Chrsitoph Waltz/Inglourious Basterds, 2) ALFRED MOLINA/AN EDUCATION, 3)Stanley Tucci/Lovely Bones, 4) CHRISTOPHER PLUMMER/LAST STATION, 5) Woody Harrelson/The Messenger

Also: Matt Damon/Invictus, Christian McKay/Orson Wellea and Me, Alec Baldwin/It's Complicated, Anthony Mackie/Hurt Locker, and PETER SAARSGARD/AN EDUCATION.

Hot: Harrelson and Baldwin

Not: Damon, Mackie and Saarsgard

Gone: Tucci (for J & J) and PAUL SCHNEIDER/BRIGHT STAR.

Thoughts: Harrelson came screaming onto the chart this past couple of weeks and Baldwin is a trendy pick too right now. Molina hasn't suffered any drop off among prognosticators despite the fact that he was snubbed by the Globes and the SAG announement...it's that SAG one that really seems to indicate a disconnect between the predictors and what seems to be the reality on the ground...which is no nom for Molina. Tucci also doesn't seem to be suffering from the drag of less than blazing critical embrace for The Lovely Bones...at least not yet. I suspect that if Molina and/or Tucci start losing traction that McKay and Baldwin are the most likely beneficiaries.

Best Supporting Actress: 1) MoNique/Precious, 2) ANNA KENDRICK/UP IN THE AIR, 3) Julianne Moore, 4) Penelope Cruz/Nine, 5) VERA FARMIGA/UP IN THE AIR.

And...Samantha Morton/The Messenger, Judi Dench/Nine, Melanie Laurent/Inglourious Basterds, Natalie Portman/Brothers, and Sigourney Weaver/Avatar.

Hot: Morton, Laurent, Portman and Weaver

Not: Cruz

Gone: Sarandon, Cotillard, Carey

Notes: Weirdness as Melanie Laurent, who has been getting the notice as a potential nominee was overlooked in favor of Diane Kruger...who hasn't made the top ten of our combined survey (she just got a bit of notice in the wake of her SAG nom in this week's updates).

Adapted Screenplay: 1) UP IN THE AIR, 2)Precious, 3) AN EDUCATION, 4) Invictus, 5) Julie and Julia

Also: Nine, Lovely Bones, A Single Man, THE LAST STATION, and The Fantastic Mr. Fox

Hot: Julie and Julia and Fantastic Mr. Fox

Not: No one really dropping badly

Gone: Where the Wild Things Are

Comment: I suspect that the top 3 are solid. Invictus and J&J ,maybe not so much. If Bones and Nine continue to lose steam, then Single Man and Last Station probably benefit.

Original Screenplay; 1) The Hurt Locker, 2) A Serious Man, 3) Up, 4) Inglourious Basterds, 5) (500 Days) of Summer

And: Avatar, BRIGHT STAR, It's Complicated, The Messenger, and District Nine.

Hot: Hurt Locker, The Messenger and Avatar

Cold:Up and District 9

Gone: The White Ribbon

Notes: I think your top five right now are likely to be the nominees when they're announced Feb. 2

Nom leaders: UITA-6, Precious-4, Hurt Locker, Invictus, An Education-4, Inglourious Basterds-3

Noms and possibles combined: Nine-7 (5 now in the "possible category"...it's dropping like Lovely Bones did last month), UITA-6 (all noms!...the most solid thing going right now and has been since Telluride!). An Education also at 6, Hurt Locker, Precious, Invictus, Basterds, Lovely Bomes and The Messenger -5, and Avatar, Serious Man, A Single Man and Last Station-4.

Telluride nominations as of this post i the Big 8 categories: 12...Possibles: 7. Down from the last post.

TFF #36 will also have some noms added for tech and foreign films (A Prophet and The White Ribbon are locks.)

The Clearinghouse will be back after the first of the year. We return to Telluride for the first time during the winter next week as we head there to ring in 2010...may catch a movie at The Nugget...rumored to be playing the last week of 2009...Up in the Air...weird, huh? Happy New Year Everyone!

TFF #36 Critics/AFI and The Oscar Clearinghouse

The Hurt Locker and Kathryn Bigelow have had a really good last couple of days...

The American Film Institue Top Ten for 2009:

“Coraline,” “The Hangover,””The Hurt Locker,” “The Messenger,” “Precious,” “A Serious Man,” “A Single Man,” “Sugar,” “Up” and “Up in the Air.”

Los Angeles Film Critics:

PICTURE: "The Hurt Locker"Runner-up: "Up in the Air"

DIRECTOR: Kathryn Bigelow, "The Hurt Locker"Runner-up: Michael Haneke, "The White Ribbon"

ACTRESS: Yolande Moreau, "Séraphine"Runner-up: Carey Mulligan, "An Education"

ACTOR: Jeff Bridges, "Crazy Heart"Runner-up: Colin Firth, "A Single Man"

ANIMATION: "Fantastic Mr. Fox"Runner-up: “Up"

FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM: "Summer Hours"Runner-up: "The White Ribbon"

NEW GENERATION: Neill Blomkamp, "District 9"

MUSIC/SCORE: T-Bone Burnett and Stephen Bruton, "Crazy Heart"Runner-up: Alexandre Desplat, "Fantastic Mr. Fox"

PRODUCTION DESIGN: Philip Ivey, "District 9"Runner-up: Rick Carter and Robert Stromberg, "Avatar"

CINEMATOGRAPHY: Christian Berger, "The White Ribbon"Runner-up: Barry Ackroyd, "The Hurt Locker"

SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Mo'Nique, "Precious"Runner-up: Anna Kendrick, "Up in the Air"

SUPPORTING ACTOR: Christoph Waltz, "Inglourious Basterds"Runner-up: Peter Capaldi, "In the Loop"

SCREENPLAY: Jason Reitman and Sheldon Turner, “Up in the Air"Runner-up: Jesse Armstrong, Simon Blackwell, Armando Iannucci and Tony Roche, "In the Loop"

DOCUMENTARY / NON-FICTION FILM: "The Beaches of Agnès" and "The Cove" (tie)DOUGLAS E. EDWARDS INDEPENDENT/EXPERIMENTAL FILM/VIDEO: Anders Edstrom and C.W. Winter, "The Anchorage"

New York Film Critics:

FILM: "The Hurt Locker"
DIRECTOR: Kathryn Bigelow for "The Hurt Locker"
SCREENPLAY: "In The Loop"
ACTRESS: Meryl Streep for "Julie & Julia"
ACTOR: George Clooney for "Up In The Air" and "Fantastic Mr. Fox"
SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Mo’Nique for "Precious"
SUPPORTING ACTOR: Christoph Waltz for "Inglourious Basterds
CINEMATOGRAPHY: Christian Berger for "The White Ribbon"
ANIMATED FILM: "Fantastic Mr. Fox"
NON-FICTION FILM: "Of Time And The City"
FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM: "Summer Hours"
FIRST FEATURE: "Hunger," director Steve McQueen

And the nominees for The Critics Choice Awards (Broadcast Film Critics):

BEST PICTURE
Nominees:• Avatar• An Education• The Hurt Locker • Inglourious Basterds• Invictus• Nine• Precious• A Serious Man • Up• Up In The Air
BEST ACTOR
Nominees:• Jeff Bridges - Crazy Heart • George Clooney - Up In The Air • Colin Firth - A Single Man• Morgan Freeman - Invictus • Viggo Mortensen - The Road • Jeremy Renner - The Hurt Locker
BEST ACTRESS
Nominees:• Emily Blunt - The Young Victoria • Sandra Bullock - The Blind Side • Carey Mulligan - An Education • Saoirse Ronan - The Lovely Bones • Gabourey Sidibe - Precious • Meryl Streep - Julie & Julia
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Nominees:• Matt Damon - Invictus • Woody Harrelson - The Messenger • Christian McKay - Me And Orson Welles • Alfred Molina - An Education • Stanley Tucci - The Lovely Bones • Christoph Waltz - Inglourious Basterds
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Nominees:• Marion Cotillard - Nine • Vera Farmiga - Up In The Air • Anna Kendrick - Up In The Air • Mo’Nique - Precious • Julianne Moore - A Single Man • Samantha Morton - The Messenger
BEST YOUNG ACTOR/ACTRESS
Nominees:• Jae Head - The Blind Side • Bailee Madison - Brothers• Max Records - Where The Wild Things Are • Saoirse Ronan - The Lovely Bones • Kodi Smit-McPhee - The Road
BEST ACTING ENSEMBLE
Nominees:• Inglourious Basterds • Nine • Precious • Star Trek • Up In The Air
BEST DIRECTING
Nominees:• Kathryn Bigelow - The Hurt Locker• James Cameron - Avatar • Lee Daniels - Precious • Clint Eastwood - Invictus • Jason Reitman - Up In The Air• Quentin Tarantino - Inglourious Basterds
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Nominees:• Mark Boal - The Hurt Locker • Joel Coen & Ethan Coen - A Serious Man • Scott Neustadter & Michael H. Weber - (500) Days Of Summer • Bob Peterson, Peter Docter - Up • Quentin Tarantino - Inglourious Basterds
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Nominees:• Wes Anderson, Noah Baumbach - Fantastic Mr. Fox • Neill Blomkamp, Terri Tatchell - District 9 • Geoffrey Fletcher - Precious • Tom Ford, David Scearce - A Single Man • Nick Hornby - An Education • Jason Reitman, Sheldon Turner - Up In The Air
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Nominees:• The Hurt Locker• Nine • Avatar • The Lovely Bones• Inglourious Basterds
BEST ART DIRECTION
Nominees:• A Single Man • Avatar • Nine • The Lovely Bones• Inglourious Basterds
BEST EDITING
Nominees:• Up In The Air • Inglourious Basterds • The Hurt Locker • Avatar • Nine
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Nominees:• Nine • Bright Star • The Young Victoria • Inglourious Basterds • Where The Wild Things Are
BEST MAKEUP
Nominees:• Avatar • District 9 • Nine • The Road • Star Trek
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Nominees:• Avatar • District 9 • The Lovely Bones • Star Trek • 2012
BEST SOUND
Nominees:• Avatar • District 9 • The Hurt Locker • Nine • Star Trek
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Nominees:• Cloudy With A Chance Of Meatballs • Coraline • Fantastic Mr. Fox • Princess And The Frog • Up
BEST ACTION MOVIE
Nominees:• Avatar • District 9 • The Hurt Locker • Inglourious Basterds • Star Trek
BEST COMEDY
Nominees:• (500) Days Of Summer • The Hangover • It’s Complicated • The Proposal • Zombieland
BEST PICTURE MADE FOR TELEVISION
Nominees:• Gifted Hands • Grey Gardens • Into The Storm • Taking Chance
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Nominees:• Broken Embraces• Coco Before Chanel • Red Cliff• Sin Nombre • The White Ribbon
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Nominees:• Anvil • Capitalism: A Love Story • The Cove • Food, Inc.• Michael Jackson’s This Is It
BEST SONG
Nominees:• "All Is Love" - Karen O, Nick Zinner - Where The Wild Things Are• "Almost There" - Randy Newman - The Princess And The Frog • "Cinema Italiano" - Maury Yeston - Nine • "(I Want To) Come Home" - Paul McCartney - Everybody’s Fine • "The Weary Kind" - T Bone Burnett, Ryan Bingham - Crazy Heart
BEST SCORE
Nominees:• Michael Giacchino - Up • Marvin Hamlisch - The Informant! • Randy Newman - The Princess and the Frog • Karen O, Carter Burwell - Where The Wild Things Are • Hans Zimmer - Sherlock Holmes

Commentary:

Well...obviously, "The Hurt Locker" is going strong...this may signal a bit of weakening in the "Up in the Air" juggernaut as well as the decline in support for "Precious". "The Last Station" may be suffering from its limited presence...(ONLY at Telluride)...Additionally, "TheLovely Bones" mixed (at best) reviews signal that its place in Osacr land continues to be questionable. And I'm kind of getting the vibe that "Avatar" may succumb to the sci-fi curse and get a bunch of tech nominations, but be shut out of Best Picture.

The Golden Globes nominations are announced tomorrow morning...we'll see what they reveal...and post the Clearinghouse one more time before we head away for the Holiday Break! See you tomorrow!

TFF #36 and The Oscar Clearinghouse #5...Pre-Turkey Edition

Jeff Bridges is red hot in the Best Actor race...

As we get ready for Thanksgiving and the obligatory over eating that comes with it, here are some opening thoughts from the Clearinghouse before we get to the breakdown of each category...

UP IN THE AIR is staying strong and is considered by many to be the favorite to win Best Picture at this point...still with Nine, Lovely Bones, Invictus and Avatar still out there to be debuted it's not yet time to place your bets.

Saw trailers on the tube for Invictus, Avatar and UITA since our last post...Invictus looked better than I thought it would. Avatar does not. Lovely Bones continues a slight swoon as we move closer to its release...Avatar has gathered some heat in the interim since Clearinghouse # 4. and Jeff Bridges and "Crazy Heart" has zoomed onto the radar from complete obscurity in the last three weeks...we'll see if he and the movie have any staying power.

This entry of the Clearinghouse adds "Rope of Silicon", The Envelope and Gurus of Gold to the database...Now on to the categories...(TFF PIX IN CAPS AND BOLD)

Best Picture: 1) UP IN THE AIR, 2) The Hurt Locker, 3) Nine, 4) Precious, 5) Invictus, 6) AN EDUCATION, 7) Up, 8) The Lovely Bones, 9) Avatar, 10) A Serious Man.

Others in play: Inglorious Basterds, A Single Man, BRIGHT STAR, THE LAST STATION, THE ROAD, Julie and Julia.

Comments: Biggest Momentum...Hurt Locker, Avatar, A Single Man (finally catching up to the heat in the Best Actor and Supporting Actress categories...which have actually cooled a little) and The Road gets a bump...maybe because it finally gets released this week. Tree of Life drops out of all categories (including director and script) as the various guessperts factor in its release date being set for 2010.

Best Direction: 1) JASON REITMAN, 2) Kathryn Bigelow, 3) Rob Marshall, 4) Clint Eastwood, 5) Lee Daniels.

Lurkers: James Cameron, Peter Jackson, LONE SCHERFIG, Quentin Tarantino, Coen Brothers.

Comments: James Cameron is getting some good buzz in the run up to the release of Avatar.

Best Actor: 1) Morgan Freeman, 2) GEORGE CLOONEY, 3) Colin Firth, 4) Jeff Bridges, 5) Daniel Day-Lewis.

Others: Jeremy Renner, VIGGO MORTENSEN, Matt Damon, Michael Stuhlbarg, Robert DeNiro.

Comments: Two weeks ago Jeff Bridges best shot at a nomination was thought to be in supporting for The Men Who Stare at Goats...man, these change fast! His performance has exploded out of almost nowhere to leap into the #4 spot as a likely nominee...And that's really hurt Jeremy Renner's campaign as he drops from nominee to a "maybe" in status. Also a nice couple of weeks for Viggo as he returns to consideration as does the serious man, Michael Stuhlbarg.

Best Actress: 1) CAREY MULLIGAN, 2) Meryl Streep, 3) Gabby Sidibe, 4) HELEN MIRREN, 5) ABBIE CORNISH.

Lurkers: Saroise Ronan, Marion Cotillard, Sandra Bullock, Maggie Gyllenhall, Michelle Monaghan.

Comments: Cornish returns to "nominee" status. Bullock and Gyllenhall both appear for the first time. And the fall of Hilary Swank and Amelia is complete as she drops completely off the chart.

Best Supporting Actor: 1) Christoph Waltz, 2) Stanley Tucci, 3) ALFRED MOLINA, 4) Matt Damon, 5) CHRISTOPHER PLUMMER.

On the Outside Looking In: PETER SAARSGARD, Anthony Mackie, Christian McKay, Stanley Tucci (again), PAUL SCHNEIDER.

Dropping Out: JAMES MC AVOY.

Comment: Matt Damon is losing a little steam and Paul Schneider returns to the chart, replacing fellow TFF #36 potential nominee James McAvoy.

Best Supporting Actress: 1) Mo'Nique, 2) Penelope Cruz, 3) ANNA KENDRICK, 4) Julianne Moore, 5) VERA FARMIGA.

Lurkers: Judi Dench, Susan Sarandon, Samantha Morton, Marion Cotillard, Mariah Carey.

Comments: Moore falls a little bit and Samantha Morton comes on strong for her work in The Messenger. Also, Mariah Carey enters the chart...getting great notice for a small part and looking nothing like herself...look out for her.

Dropping out: Rachel Wiesz and Melanie Laurent.

Adapted Screenplay: 1) Precious, 2) UP IN THE AIR, 3) AN EDUCATION, 4) Invictus, 5) Nine

Others: The Lovely Bones, A Single Man, THE LAST STATION, Julie and Julia, Wild Things.

Dropping: THE ROAD.

Original Screenplay: 1) Up, 2) A Serious Man, 3) The Hurt locker, 4) 500 Days of Summer, 5) Inglorious Basterds.

And...BRIGHT STAR, District 9, It's Complicated, Avatar, THE WHITE RIBBON.

Dropping: Tree of Life and In the Loop.

Breakdown of THE BIG EIGHT CATEGORIES...Predicted Nominees: UP IN THE AIR-6, Nine, Precious, and Invictus-5, AN EDUCATION-4, and The Hurt Locker -3.

Nominations and Near Noms combined: Nine-7, UP IN THE AIR, Precious, AN EDUCATION, The Lovely Bones-6, The Hurt Locker, Invictus and A Single Man-5, Inglorious Basterds, BRIGHT STAR, THE LAST STATION, Julie and Julia-4

TFF#36...still 13 predicted nominations and 10 near noms...

The Clearinghouse will return next just prior to Christmas/New Years. Planning to spend New Year's Eve back in Telluride!

TFF #36 and The Oscar Clearinghouse #4

Welcome...So....Steve Martin and Alec Baldwin, eh? Can you say "It's Complicated"?

Here's your latest update using the services of: And the Winner Is, Film Misery, In Contention, The Oscar Guy, Film Experience and Awards Circuit. We'll add Gurus of Gold (when it's gets serious0 The Envelope (LA Times...also, when it gets serious) and Rope of Silicon. Perhaps Hollywood Elsewhere as the season progresses toward Mar. 7

TFF #36 in CAPS and BOLD

Best Picture: 1) UP IN THE AIR, 2) Nine, 3) Hurt Locker, 4) Precious, 5) Invictus, 6) AN EDUCATION, 7) The Lovely Bones, 8) Up, 9) A Serious Man, 10) Avatar...also, 11) Inglorious Basterds, 12) The Tree of Life***13) THE LAST STATION, 14) BRIGHT STAR, 15) Julie and Julia. Dropping Out: A Single Man and Amelia.

Notes: Serious Man makes a move back up the chart as does The Last Station, Bright Star and Inglorious Basterds. Actually, Basterds made a significant move. Amelia's free fall continues. AND ***Tree of Life has been pushed t 2010...maybe it will be at TFF #37.

Best Director: 1) JASON REITMAN/UITA, 2) Kathryn Bigelow/Hurt Locker, 3) Lee Daniels/Precious, 4) Rob Marshall/Nine, 5) Clint Eastwood/Invictus. Also: 6) Peter Jackson?Lovely Bones, 7) LONE SCHERFIG/EDUCATION, 8) Quentin Tarantino/Basterds, 9) Coen Bros./Serious Man, 10) Terrence Malick/Tree***(see previous note)...(next is MICHAEL HOFFMAN/LAST STATION). Dropping Out: None

Notes: Tarantino is the only big mover...Malick, again, is moving to 2010.

Best Actor: 1) Morgan Freeman/Invctus, 2) Colin Firth/Single Man, 3) GEORGE CLOONEY/UP IN THE AIR, 4) Daniel Day-Lewis/Nine, 5) Jeremy Renner/Hurt Locker. Also, 6) Robert DeNiro/Everybody's Fine, 7) Hal Holbrook/Evening Sun, 8) VIGGO MORTENSEN/THE ROAD, 9) Johnny Depp/Public Enemies, 10) Matt Damon/The Informant! Dropping Out: None

Notes: Colin Firth's assault continues. It's a surprise to me that the film hasn't gotten more play for Best Picture with the heat from his performance and Julianne Moore's (see below). Mortensen and Depp actually bump up a little and Matt Damon continues to fall substantially.

Best Actress: 1) CAREY MULLIGAN/AN EDUCATION, 2) Meryl Streep/Julie & Julia, 3) Gabrielle Sidibe, 4) HELEN MIRREN/THE LAST STATION, 5) Saroise Ronan/Lovely Bones. Also: 6) Marion Cotillard/Nine***, 7) ABBIE CORNISH/BRIGHT STAR, 8) Michelle Monaghan/Trucker, 9) Hilary Swank/Amelia, 10) Michelle Pfeiffer and Annette Bening. Dropping Out: Penelope Cruz/Broken Embraces

Notes: Helen Mirren continues to be hot and Hilary Swank's Amelia continues its dive. We include Marion Cotillard's performance from Nine in the lead category, although she has votes in both lead and supporting for the same role. We think this is her most likely category placement.

Best Supporting actor: 1) Christoph Waltz/Inglorious Basterds, 2) Stanley Tucci/Lovely Bones, 3) Matt Damon/Invictus, 4) ALFRED MOLINA/AN EDUCATION, 5) CHRISTOPHER PLUMMER/THE LAST STATION. Also: 6) PETER SAARSGARD/AN EDUCATION, 7) Anthony Mackie/Hurt Locker, 8) JAMES MC AVOY/THE LAST STATION, 9) Stanley Tucci/Julie and Julia, 10) 4 guys tied here. Dropping Out: Richard Kind & ROBERT DUVALL.

Notes: Mackey continues to gain ground and Stanley Tucci is to be red hot as he appears on the list in 2 places (although I suspect he'll get the nomination for Lovely Bones). Duvall drops out...too bad, it's a really fine performance. And James McAvoy is getting split votes in lead and supporting. We suspect he'll end up campaigning as a supporting candidate.

Best Supporting Actress: 1) Mo'Nique/Precious, 2) Julianne Moore/Single Man, 3) Penelope Cruz/Nine, 4) ANNA KENDRICK/UP IN THE AIR, 5) VERA FARMIGA/UP IN THE AIR***. Also: 6) Judy Dench/Nine, 7) Susan Sarandon/Lovely Bones, 8) Rachel Weisz/Lovely Bones, 9) Marion Cotillard/Public Enemies, 10) Melanie Laurent/Inglorius Basterds. Dropping Out; Nicole Kidman and Catherine Keener.

Notes: ***Farmiga makes a move, partly because she also is getting attention in the lead category for this role. We suspect she'll end up in supporting as the season progresses. The first time both UITA ladies move into the "nomination" category. Julianne Moore's rise continues to be meteoric. Laurent returns to the bottom of the list as a part of the overall Inglorious Basterds boomlet over the past couple of weeks.

Best Adapted Screenplay: 1) UP IN THE AIR, 2) Precious, 3) Lovely Bones, 4) AN EDUCATION, 5) Invictus. Also: 6) Nine, 7) THE LAST STATION, 8) A Single Man, 9) Julie & Julia, 10) THE ROAD.

Best Original Screenplay: 1) Up, 2) A Serious Man, 3) The Hurt locker, 4) 500 Days (of Summer), 5) BRIGHT STAR. Also: 6) Inglorious Basterds, 7) THE WHITE RIBBON, 8) District Nine, 9) In the Loop, 10) Tree of Life*** (see above).

Notes: Thanks to Awards Circuit and Film experience, we can expand the screenplay list past 8 possibles...barely.

TFF #36 films account for 13 "Big 8" nominations...up one from the last post and 10 "lurking"up 4 from the last post.

Breakdown: "Nominations": UP IN THE AIR-6, Precious & Invictus-5, AN EDUCATION, Nine, Lovely Bones and Hurt Locker-4.

Combined Noms and Lurks: Nine & The Lovely Bones-7, UP IN THE AIR & AN EDUCATION-6, Hurt Locker, Precious, Invictus, Inglorious Basterds and THE LAST STATION-5. Julie & Julia-4. Serious Man, Single man and BRIGHT STAR-3.

Final Thoughts: I just have a feeling that Lovely Bones (can you say "King Kong"?) and Invictus (can you say "Changeling"?) are going to fade. I think Nine is a solid contender.

TFF #36 and The Oscar Clearinghouse #2 and #3

Christopher Plummer and Helen Mirren in "The Last Station"...saw it at the Telluride Film Festival and now it's getting some serious Oscar attention...for Mirren, Plummer, McAvoy and Giamatti...

Well....This should be the third update, but the one set for Sept. 29 just never got put together...so this will be a combination of #2 and #3...

TFF #36 pics in CAPS AND BOLD.

Best Picture...

1) UP IN THE AIR

2) Nine

3) The Hurt Locker

4) Precious

5) Invictus

6) AN EDUCATION

6) The Lovely Bones

8) Up

9) Avatar

10) A Serious Man

11) The Tree of Life

12) A Single Man

13) Amelia

14) Inglorious Basterds

15) Julie and Julia

Gone from Post #1: Capitalism: A Love Story, Public Enemies, THE ROAD, The Informant!, and BRIGHT STAR

Comments: Since the first post 5 weeks ago, Up in the Air has zoomed to the top of the list. An Education has held held on solidly. But The Road and Bright Star have lost their luster. Personally I am not really surprised by the dip for Bright Star...thought it was pretty ponderous...but I am a real advocate for The Road...It might be the Best Movie of the year. Other notes...Invictus has lost some steam as has Lovely Bones and Amelia...(Lord, Amelia is taking a nose-dive...pardon the pun) one gets the sense that they may not live up to the hype...which also doesn't bode well for Nine (but I finally saw the trailer...and it looks PHENOMENAL). Finally, Serious Man and Single Man both gained some pretty substantial ground.

Best Director:

1) JASON REITMAN/UITA

2) Lee Daniels/Precious

3) Kathryn Bigelow/Hurt Locker

4) Rob Marshall/Nine

5) Clint Eastwood/Invictus

6) Peter Jackson/Bones

7) LONE SCHERFIG/EDUCATION

8) Terrance Malick/Tree

9) J. and E. Coen/Serious Man

9) Quentin Tarantino/Inglorious

Dropping Out: James Cameron and JANE CAMPION

Notes: Reitman was the big gainer over the month-plus (no surprise there). Rob Marshall suffered the largest decline on the list...making the above comment about Nine seem a lot more trenchant.

Best Actor:

1) Morgan Freeman/Invictus

2) GEORGE CLOONEY/UITA

3) Colin Firth/Single Man

4) Daniel Day-Lewis

5) Jeremy Renner/Hurt Locker

6) Robert DeNiro/Everybody's Fine

7) Matt Damon/Informant!

8) Hal Holbrook/That Evening Sun

9) VIGGO MORTENSEN/ROAD

10) Johnny Depp/Public Enemies

Gone: BEN WHISHAW and Sean Penn

Comment: Clooney is still riding the wave from Telluride. Freeman continues to be on top, but has lost some luster. Colin Firth is red hot after Toronto as is his film "A Single Man". Also with some heat is Jeremy Renner as "Hurt Locker" continues to linger from this summer's releases as the most likely to pick up some Oscar love.

Best Actress:

1) CAREY MULLIGAN/AN EDUCATION

2) Meryl Streep/Julie and Julia

3) Gabrielle Sidibe/Precious

4) HELEN MIRREN/THE LAST STATION

5) Saroise Ronan/Lovely Bones

6) ABBIE CORNISH/BRIGHT STAR

7) Hillary Swank/Amelia

8) Michelle Monaghan/Trucker

9) Marion Cotillard/Nine

10) Penelope Cruz/Broken Embraces

Gone: Michelle Pfeiffer, AUDREY TAUTOU

Comment: Mulligan continues to be regarded as a lock and Dame Helen Mirren is the hottest mover right now after Sony Pictures Classics has picked up the distribution rights to The Last Station (and after having just won the Best Actress prize this past weekend at the Rome Film Festival). SPC reportedly has promised an Oscar campaign as part of that deal...which also bodes well for Last Station in other categories...like for Christopher Plummer and James McAvoy as well as some tech consideration. Screenplay and Best Pic? Who knows. Depends on the quality of such wait and sees as Invictus, Nine and The Lovely Bones. Although if Amelia is an indication....Finally, Abbie Cornish drops into the "lurker" category...I personally am guessing that trend will continue as Bright Star fades...

Best Supporting Actor:

1) Christoph Waltz/Inglorious Basterds

2) Stanley Tucci/Lovely Bones

3) ALFRED MOLINA/AN EDUCATION

4) Matt Damon/Invictus

5) CHRISTOPHER PLUMMER/LAST STATION

6) JAMES MC AVOY/LAST STATION

7) PETER SAARSGARD/AN EDUCATION

8) ROBERT DUVALL/THE ROAD

9) Richard Kind/Serious Man

9) Anthony Mackie/Hurt Locker

Gone: PAUL SCHNEIDER, KODI SMIT-MC PHEE, Jeff Bridges, Richard Gere

Comment: Last year it was the Best Actress category that held the potential to be dominated by Telluride connections...and NONE OF THEM ENDED UP NOMINATED...That chance this year exists in this category. And I suspect that the shutout of last year will not be repeated. Who's hot??? Plummer and McAvoy again from Last Station...but Plummer really should be in the Lead category...not here. Come on SPC...Waltz continues to be regarded as a shoo-in...Duvall has picked up a little steam (it's a terrific performance). Who's cooling??? Damon and Kind.

Best Supporting Actress:

1) MoNique/Precious

2) Penelope Cruz/nine

3) ANNA KENDRICK/UITA

4) Julianne Moore/Single Man

5) Judi Dench/Nine

6) Susan Sarndon/Lovely Bones

7) Marion Cotillard/Public Enemies

8) Rachel Wiesz/Lovely Bones

9) Nicole Kidman/Nine

10) Catherine Keener/Wild Things

Gone: Sigouney Weaver, VERA FARMIGA, Jessica Chastain, Melanie Laurent

Comment: Seems like a category searching for nominees. almost everyone has lost some steam from our first post 5 weeks ago...except Kendrick and Moore...who is the hottest mover for Single Man.

Adapted Screenplay:

1) UP IN THE AIR

2) Precious

3) AN EDUCATION

4) The Lovely Bones

5) Invictus

5) A Single Man

Others: Nine, Where the Wild Things Are

Comment: The potential nominees in both screenwriting categories continue to be incredibly narrow with only 8 adapted scripts and 8 original scripts getting mentioned across the 6-7 sources we're currently using. In adapted...UITA and Education are up slightly...Precious and Lovely Bones are down slightly and Invictus and Single Man appear for the first time.

Original Screenplay:

1) Up

2) A Serious Man

3) The Hurt Locker

4) BRIGHT STAR

5) 500 Days of Summer

Also: The Tree of Life, Inglorious Basterds, and District 9

Comment: None

Overall:

TFF #36 films sit with 12 "nominations" in the Big Eight categories with another 6 "lurking".

The Breakdown:

5 "Noms": UP IN THE AIR, Precious, Invictus, and Nine

4 "Noms": AN EDUCATION, The Hurt Locker, The Lovely Bones

3 "Noms": A Single Man

Combined "noms" and "Lurkings"

Nine (9)

The Lovely Bones (7)

AN EDUCATION (6)

UP IN THE AIR, The Hurt Locker, Precious, Invictus (5)

A Serious Man, A Single Man, Inglorious Basterds (4)

THE LAST STATION, The Tree of Life (3)

BRIGHT STAR, THE ROAD, Up, Julie and Julia, Amelia (2)

Final Thoughts: Up in the Air continues to go like gangbusters and The Last Station has gathered a lot of heat in the last month (and if you read this blog at all during the festival, you know we were impressed with it). Hate that The Road is losing steam. I still think it's likely the best film of the year.

TFF #36 and the Oscar Clearinghouse #1 for 2009

Will everyone in this picture be nominated for Best Supporting Actress? (the female cast of "Nine")

Continuing what we started in this space last year, we'll devote some time and energy to compiling the best of the Oscar guessperts for the Big Eight categories from now til the ceremony in February...(Helfrich's..we'd love to be there!)...and we'll highlight the films getting the Oscar buzz that showed at the Telluride Film Festival. So lets' get started!

The Early Line on Best Picture...(note, the Academy goes to 10 nominees this year...uh...OK...)

Leaders: (with Telluride films in CAPS AND BOLD):

Invictus (Eastwood directs Morgan Freeman as Nelson Mandela with Matt Damon...http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1057500/),

Nine (Daniel Day-Lewis and women...many, many women in Rob Marshall's film version of the stage musical based on Fellini's "8 1/2" http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0875034/).

Precious (Lee Daniels directs this Sundance favorite...http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0929632/).

The Lovely Bones (Peter Jackson directs the adaptation of the novel http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0380510/)

AN EDUCATION (Lone Scherfig directs Carey Mulligan, Peter Saarsgard and Alfred Molina in this coming of age story set in the 60's in England...a lot of buzz from Telluride! and it was a hit at Sundance too! http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1174732/ ).

The Hurt Locker (Kathryn Bigelow's consensus critical darling from earlier this summer http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0887912/).

Up (can Pixar get a Best Pic nom for this animated film? The expansion to ten slots makes it more likely...and it's a good movie too! http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1049413/)

UP IN THE AIR (Jason Reitman's follow-up to Juno getting great traction from both Telluride and Toronto...Clooney also looking good for a nomination...see later http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1193138/).

Amelia (Hilary Swank as Amelia Earhart...thought this would be in Telluride, I was wrong. http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1129445/).

THE ROAD ( John Hillcoat directs Viggo Mortensen in a post apocalyptic America created by Cormac McCarthy http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0898367/).

Also in play: Avatar (James Cameron), A Serious Man (the Coen Brothers), BRIGHT STAR (Jane Campion), Capitalism: A Love Story (Michael Moore), and Public Enemies (Michael Mann...really???)

Comment: As hot as "Up in the Air" has been at both Telluride and Toronto, look for significant upward movement for all involved by the next post.

Director: In the lead: Clint Eastwood-Invictus, Rob Marshall-Nine, Lee Daniels-Precious, Peter Jackson-The Lovely Bones, And Kathryn Bigelow-The Hurt Locker. Lurking: LONE SCHERFIG-AN EDUCATION, Mira Nair-Amelia, Terrence Malick-The Tree of Life (http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0478304/), James Cameron-Avatar, and JANE CAMPION-BRIGHT STAR. (no Reitman???)

Actor: Morgan Freeman-Invictus, GEORGE CLOONEY-UP IN THE AIR, Daniel Day-Lewis-Nine, VIGGO MORTENSEN-THE ROAD (http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1130080/), and Matt Damon-The Informant. Lurkers: Johnny Depp-Public Enemies (again...really???), Jeremy Renner-The Hurt Locker, Sean Penn-The Tree of Life, BEN WHISHAW-BRIGHT STAR, Michael Stuhlbarg-A Serious Man.

Actress: Meryl Streep-Julie and Julia (she's really good! http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1135503/), CAREY MULLIGAN-AN EDUCATION, Saroise Ronan-The Lovely Bones, Hilary Swank-Amelia, and ABBIE CORNISH-BRIGHT STAR (http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0810784/). LurkeeLoos: Gabby Sidibe-Precious, AUDREY TAUTOU-COCO BEFORE CHANEL , Michelle Pfeiffer-Cheri, Michelle Monaghan-Trucker, Penelope Cruz-Broken Embraces.

Supporting Actor: Matt Damon-Invictus ( a double nom?), ALFRED MOLINA-AN EDUCATION, Christoph Waltz-Inglourious Basterds (http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0361748/) Stanley Tucci-The Lovely Bones, and Richard Kind-A Serious Man (http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1019452/). On the cusp: Richard Gere-Amelia, KODI SMIT-MC PHEE-THE ROAD, Jeff Bridges-The Men Who Stare at Goats, PAUL SCHNEIDER-BRIGHT STAR, PETER SAARSGARD-AN EDUCATION (ought to be in the lead category).

Supporting Actress: Mo'Nique-Precious, Penelope Cruz-Nine, Judi Dench-Nine, Marion Cotillard-Nine, Susan Sarandon- The Lovely Bones. Also close: ANNA KENDRICK-UP IN THE AIR, Rachel Weisz-The Lovely Bones, Jessica Chastain-The Tree of Life, Sigourney Weaver-Avatar, and VERA FARMIGA-UP IN THE AIR.

Comment: Is it possible that this category could end up with all five nominees from "Nine"? or Mo'Nique plus 4 from "Nine"?

Adapted Screenplay: Kerrine Jenkins-Precious, NICK HORNBY-AN EDUCATION, Fran Walsh, Phillipa Boyens and Peter Jackson-The Lovely Bones, Anthony Peckham-Invictus, and JOE PENHALL-THE ROAD. Mentions: Michael Tolkin and Anthony Minghella-Nine, JASON REITMAN AND SHELDON TURNER-UP IN THE AIR, James Schamus-Taking Woodstock, Scott Z. Burns-The Informant!

Original Screenplay: Pete Docter and Bob Peterson, JANE CAMPION-BRIGHT STAR, Scott Neustadter and Michael H. Weber-500 Days of Summer (http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1022603/), Mark Boal-The Hurt Locker, and Joel Coen and Ethan Coen-A Serious Man. Other mentions: Terrence Malick-The Tree of Life, Ron Bass and Anna Hamilton Phelan, and Tony Gilroy-Duplicity (really???)

Other notes: Most "noms" on the first chart...6 for "Nine" and "The Lovely Bones". "Nine"also leads in the nom/lurk category with 8.

Five Telluride films seem to have at least some heat now: An Education, Up in the Air, The Road, Bright Star and Coco Before Chanel with a combined total of 11 "nominations" predicted in the big eight categories and another 11 "possibles". An Education leads with 4 noms and 2 possibles followed by Up in the Air with 2 and 3, The Road with 3 and 1, Bright Star with 2 and 4 and Coco with 1 possible.

Overall..as noted Nine and The Lovely Bones are out front with significant expectations for Invictus with 5 noms, Precious with 4 and 1, The Hurt Locker with 3 and 1, Amelia with 2 and 3 and A Serious Man with 2 and 2. We'll see what happens when the studios whose strategy has been to hold off from the festival circuit release Nine, Invictus, and The Lovely Bones...

And, of course, there are always the tech awards that will add to nomination totals and the foreign films Telluride films that could make some noise in this category include: A Prophet, Vincere, and Samson and Delilah.

Back in 2-3 weeks with an update!

TF#36 Post Mortem

Welllll...so how'd we do in the run up to this year's Telluride Film Festival??? The answer is "so-so". I felt like the reported films that we sniffed out we pretty much got right...even when we waffled. Let me explicate.

I think the blog can justifiably claim we got "Bright Star," "Life During Wartime," "The Road," "The Last Station" (at the last minute), and "Vincere" (also at the last minute). At least to some extent we can claim we got it right on "An Education" (despite the uncertainty because it had been a Sundance film) and also "Up in the Air".

I also feel that we certainly shaded the likelihood of "The White Ribbon," "Coco Before Chanel"and "A Prophet".

But we did whiff big time on "Amelia," "Broken Promises," "Sympathy for Delicious," and "Precious" (like "An Education", this was a Sundance entry). And we were totally wrong on "Lebanon."

But we figured out "Bad Lieutenant" late in the game, and were redeemed by the sneak of "My Son, My Son..." Our mistake was underestimating how much Werner Herzog was going to be a part of TFF #36.

All in all, it seemed like we got better at the "reportage" part this year, but were just about as bad as last year in terms of the "educated" guess work. We were thrown by the absence this year of Fox Searchlight...particularly since they had been well represented in recent festivals (i.e. "Slumdog")...and the demise of Paramount Vantage and Warner Independent also presented challenges to our guess work.

Finally a shout out to the new folks who were kind enough to read/follow the blog this year and drop a comment or two along the way. Made us feel like we were actually doing something worthwhile rather just amusing ourselves...so thanks...Kelly, Gant, Jen, Jarrette, Matt, Rich, Haywood, M. Austin and Reilly.

Later today...Oscar Clearinghouse #1 or 2009...I'll let some of you off the hook from the mandatory email alert for the new posts!

Day Four...And It's a Wrap!

Me And Curtis Hanson (LA Confidential) at the picnic

Viggo Mortensen between screenings of "The Road"...Oscar Nom??? I'd say yes.

Nicolas Cage and Werner Herzog at the picnic before "Bad Lieutenant"

Ken Burns signs our books and discovers we may be source material for his next project. No, really! See below.

Kelsey, me, Kristy and Merri with our small scale "class photo" for TFF #36

The fourth and final day of the 36th Telluride Film Festival was heavy on festival and light on film...but, personally a very fulfilling day.

Started the day with Ken Burns' book signing...got an autographed copy of "National Parks" that coincides with his PBS series in 3 weeks. And...when he asked where we were from, he lit up. Seems his next documentary project is about the Dust Bowl...and when we revealed we were from the bulls eye of the Dust Bowl, Burns was very animated...took our name, numbers and email address. An associate producer is set to contact us in the next couple of weeks. Holy Crap!

Then...on to the Labor Day film fest picnic and a really tasty lunch hosted by Omaha Steaks...good food! And good conversation...a wonderful conversation with a Colorado couple who has two kids in the Yale School of Drama...very nice. Nicolas Cage showed up for a presentation...he's here with "Bad Lieutenant: Port of Call New Orleans"...more later.

Ran across new friends Mark Helfrich and his wife, whom we met the first day, and compared notes of movies we had seen and opinions of them...Mark is a film editor of some renown...he's a serious deal...IMDB him, you'll be impressed. Here's his link to IMDB: http://www.imdb.com/name/nm0375068/. We're invited to their home in LA for their Oscar party...cause I'm sure we'll be in LA...but , ain't that cool?

Noticed that Kris had offered our seats as we were ready to leave to film director and writer Curtis Hanson...he directed "LA Confidential" ...only one of my favorite movies ever made...ever! Got a chance to talk to him for a few moments. And a pic!

As we left, got a chance to congratulate Oscar nominated actress Brenda Blethyn on her "London River" performance.

Then to the Palm for "The Road". Viggo Moretensen sighting and picture. Then the movie...Brutal, harrowing, disturbing and a very nearly great film. It's hard to watch...but a really stunning film. Mortensen's performance...YES!..Other standouts are Robert Duvall and Charlize Theron. There's been a lot of buzz for Kodi Smit-McPhee...but I think he's just OK in the role of the boy....also John Hillcoat's direction is eloquent. 3 and 1/2 stars...

Then to The Galaxy for "Bad Lieutenant"...and long story short...It's bad! (in the traditional sense, meaning not good). 1 and 1/2 stars. Worst thing I saw this weekend.

As always...things I wanted to get and didn't: "The White Ribbon," "Vincere" and "A Prophet". Thought they'd be TBAed today and there weren't. Thank God for Netflix!

4 days and 12 films...some great and others less so. Spoke with Laura Linney this weekend and have the picture to prove it and tonight Ken Burns has my contact info in his pocket...oh man....

Top picks: "Life During Wartime," "The Road," "Up in the Air," "Farewell" and "The Last Station".

Lots of people liked "An Education" I thought it was OK. Lots of people loved "Bright Star"...again...OK

Biggest buzz on something I did not see...the "Red Riding" trilogy. It seemed to be a big hit with fest-goers.

Started the weekend with some goals and they all happened. And to a much greater degree that I thought possible. Love this weekend, this festival and this spot on the planet. Start the countdown to Telluride Film Festival #37!

Day Three

A shorter day of film today as we give our evening in Telluride over to our hosts who so graciously make it possible for this to occur each year.

And a tough day of film going it was...Started off the day with "Room and a Half" the Russian memoriam to poet Joseph Brodsky (met the director at the Patron Brunch on Friday) ..some clever animation and some arresting images...but , Good Lord, the film was slow. And that turned out to be the theme of the day! SLOOOOOWWW.... 2 Stars out of 4

Second film was the much anticipated Jane Campion entry "Bright Star"...poet John Keats ill-fated romance with Fanny Brawne. Abbie Cornish: Good, Costumes:Good...the rest...SLOOOOOWWW. 2 and 1/2 Stars of 4.

Third film: Oscar Nominee Brenda Blethyn in "London River"...she's good but the film is predictable and SLOOOOWWWW! 2 stars out of 4>

Ultimately, today's films paled in comparison to yesterday's line-up. One hopes that the last day makes up for that.

Tomorrow sees us hoping to get in "The Road" and maybe "A Prophet" and "Vincere"...and a Viggo Mortensen sighting as well as a Nic Cage sighting...and Daryl Hannah would be a bonus! And purportedly Curtis Hanson is in town...writer/director of "LA Confidential"...one of the best movies in the last fifteen years...would love to meet him too!)

My fave so far...Todd Solondz's "Life During Wartime" and Jason Reitman's "Up in the Air" (sat next to him during the "Bright Star" presentation this afternoon...can you believe it???)

Can't wait for Monday...but so sad it's here so soon!

And a quick note to Joel, Heather and Natausha...as you may have guessed...Mrs. P and I are "off the clock". Love!

And now, on to the SHOW

After the ten hour drive we are here.

Ready to grapple with the next four days and very excited about them and the chance to see great film. On tap: A Prophet, Vincere, The Road, Bad Lieutenant, Coco Before Chanel, The Last Station and many others.

Have already spotted documentarian Ken Burns (personal hero) and critic/reporter/bloggers Anne Thompson and Eugene Hernandez.

Girding up for the Patron Brunch in the morning at Skyline Ranch. Purportedly Viggo Mortensen (The Road) and Nicolas Cage (Bad Lieutenant) are already in town and we hope to see them there.

Finally...still pretty sure Jason Reitman's "Up in the Air" will "sneak" on Sunday or Monday...and can't wait to see it.

Can't believe I get to do this...

Thanks Larry and Mitzi...

And Away We Go

Leaving in about an hour. Word is that the official schedule will be released at noon today...but if you're following the chatter on the web you probably already have a pretty good idea of what's likely to show up...

But if not...here is an incomplete list of what to expect...

"Coco Before Chanel" (starring the incandescent Audrey Tautou), "Bright Star" (new from Jane Campion of "The Piano" fame), "Life During Wartime" (Todd Soldonz's newest...with Ally Sheedy and Allison Janney among others), "A Prophet" (Cannes entry), "The Road" (Viggo Mortensen in Cormac McCarthy's post-apocalyptic story...also has Guy Pearce, Charlize Theron, and Robert Duvall), "Bad Lieutenant: Port of Call New Orleans" (Werner Herzog directs Nicolas Cage in a re-imagining of the Abel Ferrera original), "Up in the Air" (Jason Reitman's post-Juno project starring George Clooney), "An Education" ( a Sundance favorite with Peter Sarrsgard) and "The Last Station" with an incredible cast: Christopher Plummer, Helen Mirren, Paul Giamatti and James McAvoy....

Can't wait to hit the road, and hope to see and talk to some of you in Telluride!

Two Days

Well, some interesting tidbits here and there tonight...

Jeffrey Wells at Hollywood Elsewhere all but confirms: "Up in the Air," "The Road," "Bad Lieutenant," and "An Education" and claims that the "other" Herzog film..."My Son, My Son..." will NOT be playing Telluride.

At this point "Up in the Air" seems to be a lock...we've seen some other pretty compelling evidence that it's a-happenin'.

Additionally, the internet has been burning up the last 24 hours or so with the rumor that Edgar Wright's "Scott Pilgrim vs. The World" with Michael Cera will pop up in Telluride...we think that rumor is more than just a rumor!

As to "Amelia" and "Broken Embraces" nary a breath...so maybe I don't know what I'm talking about after all!

An Echo Chamber

Anne Thompson, writing in her blog "Thompson on Hollywood" for IndieWire.com is up with her Telluride guess list... and that of Chris Willman of Entertainment Weekly...here's that link:http://blogs.indiewire.com/thompsononhollywood/2009/08/30/festival_watch_new_moon_pics/

Thompson and Willman's lists share "The White Ribbon," "The Road," "An Education," and "Up in the Air" before differing.

From both lists, I concur with all of Thompson's guesses and take issue only with one of Willman's. That disagreement is with "Bad Lieutenant". Willman includes it on his list and I never have. I've always thought it was unlikely and Werner Herzog (who is tied into the Festival) has another film I have mentioned in this post..."My Son, My Son, What Have Ye Done?"

My guess is that it's in and "Bad Lieutenant" is out...Of course, I could be completely wrong. Wouldn't be the first time.