Those of you that have followed this space for a few years know that a fairly strong overlap has developed over time between the Telluride and Venice fests. Last year no less than nine different films played both festivals including: First Man, Roma, The Favourite and The Front Runner. In 2017 they shared eight films including: The Shape of Water and Downsizing.
Venice opening night films that have moved on to play at Telluride in recent years have included:
2018- First Man
2017- Downsizing
2016- La La Land
2014- Birdman
2013- Gravity
2010- Black Swan
So, as you can see...there is a substantial connection.
And key to our ability to read the Venice tea leaves is scheduling. In order to make both Venice and Telluride films have to be either front loaded or back loaded at Venice in order to have time to make it to southwest Colorado. Further, the most sought after titles are front loaded as Venice will desire to world premiere them. That's why today's release of the screening schedule for Venice is interesting.
We think we know, for example, that Hirokazu Kore-eda's The Truth will be in Telluride and we also know that it is this year's opener for Venice on Aug. 28. That works. Other films that more or less confirm the theory are Noah Baumbach's Marriage Story which we think i splaying Telluride and which Venice has scheduled for Aug. 29th. Laura Greenfield's documentary about Imelda Marcos is another film we think makes it to T-ride and its Venice screening date of Aug. 30th makes it possible.
All of that to get to this...there are four Venice films that aren't currently claimed by Toronto or New York that fit the profile:
James Gray's Ad Astra (Aug. 29)
Benedict Andrews' Seberg (Aug. 30)
Roman Polanski's J'accuse (Aug. 30)
Haifa al-Mansour's The Perfect Candidate (Aug. 29)
The theory of schedule dates indicate at least some chance of the Venice/Telluride double play is further under-girded by the screenings of Pablo Larrain's Ema and Todd Phillips' Joker on Aug. 31. Since we think we know from Toronto news that those two films will not play Telluride, it looks like Aug. 30th is our Venice cut off date this year.
So...
It feels to me like The Perfect Candidate and Seberg are the better bets for Telluride inclusion. You may remember that a couple of weeks back Jeff Wells at Hollywood Elsewhere said that he had been told that Ad Astra was NOT playing Telluride. So, despite its Telluride-friendly date at Venice...it's still "iffy" at best.
And, frankly, I'd be surprised if Polanski's film screens.
Other nuggets...looks like we can scratch David Michod's The King from Telluride speculation as it is scheduled to screen initially in Venice on Sept. 2nd.
Here's the link to the Venice schedule.
Have a good weekend...
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