Here's a look at where I'm at predicting what films will win Oscars on Sunday night for Costumes, Makeup/Hair, Visual Effects, Sound Mixing, Sound Editing and the three Shorts categories.
My FINAL OSCAR PREDICTIONS for all 24 categories will be posted SUNDAY MORNING...because it's all still fluid. The predictions below even post date some of those I have for the latest Gurus of Gold at Movie City News (see below).
As always TFF #46 films are in Bold
COSTUMES
1) Little Women
2) Once Upon a Time...
3) Jojo Rabbit
4) The Irishman
5) Joker
MAKEUP/HAIR
1) Bombshell
2) 1917
3) Joker
4) Judy
5) Maleficent
VISUAL EFFECTS
1) 1917
2) The Irishman
3) Avengers: Endgame
4) The Lion King
5) Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
SOUND MIXING
1) 1917
2) Ford v Ferrari
3) Once Upon a Time...
4) Joker
5) Ad Astra
SOUND EDITING
1) Ford v Ferrari
2) 1917
3) Joker
4) Once Upon a Time...
5) Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
LIVE ACTION SHORT
1) Brotherhood
2) The Neighbors Window
3) Nefta Football Club
4) Saria
5) A Sister
DOCUMENTARY SHORT
1) Learning to Skateboard in a War Zone (If You're a Girl)
2) St. Louis Superman
3) Life Overtakes Me
4) In the Absence
5) Walk Run Cha Cha
ANIMATED SHORT
1) Hair Love
2) Kitbull
3) Dcera (Daughter)
4) Sister
5) Memorable
THE FINAL GURUS OF GOLD
The last Gurus of Gold predictions for Oscar Night are up over at Movie City News. In addition to yours truly, other Gurus this season have included: Thelma Adams, Gregory Ellwood, Mark Johnson, Dave Karger, David Poland, Steve Pond, Sasha Stone and Jeff Sneider.
According to the Gurus' collective wisdom TFF #46 films will have wins in the following categories:
Best Actress: Renee Zellweger/Judy
Best Supporting Actress: Laura Dern/Marriage Story
Best Original Screenplay: Parasite
Best International Film: Parasite
Best Film Editing: Ford v Ferrari
There are a few categories where TFF #46 films are in the #2 spot and, at least in theory, pose the greatest chance to knock off the predicted winners. They are:
Best Picture: Parasite
Best Director: Bong Joon-ho/Parasite
Best Actress: Scarlett Johansson/Marriage Story
Best Actor: Adam Driver/Marriage Story
Best International Film: Pain and Glory
Best Editing: Parasite
Best Makeup/Hair: Judy
Best Sound Editing: Ford v Ferrari
Best Sound Mixing: Ford v Ferrari
At most, TFF #46 films could win 14 Oscars Sunday night as at least one TFF #46 film is competing in that many categories. Categories with zero TFF #46 nominees are: Best Supporting Actor, Documentary Feature, Animated Feature, Cinematography, Costumes, Visual Effects, Song and the three Shorts categories.
I want to give a quick shout of gratitude to Ray Pride and Movie City News for asking me back for a second season as one of the Gurus of Gold. Hope to be back again next season.
RUIMY TAKES A STAB AT CANNES
Jordan Ruimy at World of Reel has posted what he terms a "Cannes Spitball" as he takes an educated guess at a number of films that seem to stand a good chance of making the lineup for the Cannes Film Fest. Cannes runs this year from May 12-23.
as readers of this space know, the Cannes/Telluride share list is usually considerable. If you look at the lineups of the two fests over the past ten
years, you can definitely see the connection:
In 2019, eight films played both fests
2018-7
2017-8
2016-7
2015-6
2014-9
2013-9
2012-10
2011-5
2010-9
That's an average of 7.8 films per year that crossover.
So, thinking about what will play at Cannes and then ultimately evaluating the titles that do eventually get chosen is a good way to make some guesses about a potential TFF #47 set of film choices.
Soooo...what does Jordan have to say in his post and, ultimately, which titles does he suggest for Cannes that seem a potential pick of TFF programmers?
Here are some films from his list that, at least this far out, might be TFF possibles:
Mia Hansen-Love's Bergman Island
Chloe Zhao's Nomadland
Sophia Coppola's On the Rocks
Nanni Moretti's Tre Piani
Ulrich Seidel's Bose Spiele
Jordan's complete post is linked here.
EMAIL: mpgort@gmail.com
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