MTFB Final Oscar Nomination Update / Notes on Oscar #96 /The Oscar Experts Final Predictions

MTFB FINAL OSCAR NOMINATION UPDATE

Welp. here there are my final Oscar nomination predictions before tomorrow morning's announcement..  General notes:  Oppenheimer is the favorite to win and win big on Oscar night.  The Holdovers and Saltburn seem to surging.  May December seems to have faded and The Color Purple and Origin never seemed to catch fire.

I'll have a special post up tomorrow after the nominations are announced with the full list and probably a comment or two.

BEST PICTURE

1) Oppenheimer (1)

2) The Holdovers (5)

3) Barbie (2)

4) Killers of the Flower Moon (3)

5) Poor Things (4)

6) American Fiction (6)

7) Maestro (7)

8) Anatomy of a Fall (9)

8) Past Lives (8)

10) The Zone of Interest (10)

Alternates:  Saltburn, The Color Purple, All of Us Strangers.

BEST DIRECTION

1) Christopher Nolan/Oppenheimer (1)

2) Martin Scorsese/Killer of the Flower Moon (2)

3) Greta Gerwig /Barbie (4)

4) Alexander Payne/The Holdovers (-)

5) Yorgos Lanthimos/Poor Things (3)

Alternates: Jonathan Glazer/The Zone of Interest, Justine Triet/Anatomy of a Fall and Bradley Cooper/Maestro.

BEST ACTRESS

1) Emma Stone/Poor Things (2)

2) Lily Gladstone/Killers of the Flower of Moon (1)

3) Carey Mulligan/Maestro (3)

4) Sandra Huller/Anatomy of a Fall (4)

5) Margot Robbie/Barbie (5)

Alternates: Annette Bening/Nyad, Greta Lee/Past Lives and Fantasia Barrino/The Color Purple.

BEST ACTOR

1) Paul Giamatti/The Holdovers (2)

2) Cillian Murphy/Oppenheimer (3)

3) Bradley Cooper/Maestro (1)

4) Jeffrey Wright/American Fiction (4)

5) Colman Domingo/Rustin (-)

Alternates: Leonardo DiCaprio/Killers of the Flower Moon, Andrew Scott/All of Us Strangers and Barry Keoghan/Saltburn.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1) Da'Vine Joy Randolph/The Holdovers (1)

2) Emily Blunt/Oppenheimer (3)

3) Danielle Brooks/The Color Purple (2)

4) Jodie Foster/Nyad (4)

5) Penelope Cruz/Ferrari (-)

Alternates: Julianne Moore/May December, Sandra Huller/The Zone of Interest, America Ferrera/Barbie and Rosamund Pike/Saltburn.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1) Robert Downey, Jr./Oppenheimer (2)

2) Ryan Gosling (1)

3) Robert DeNiro/Killers of the Flower Moon (4)

4) Willem Dafoe/Poor Things (-)

5) Mark Ruffalo/Poor Things (3)

Alternates: Dominic Sessa/The Holdovers, Sterling K. Brown/American Fiction and Charles Melton/May December.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1) The Holdovers (1)

2) Past Lives (2)

3) Anatomy of a Fall (3)

4) May December (4)

5) Maestro (5)

Alternates: Saltburn, Air and The Boy and the Heron. 

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1) Oppenheimer (1)

2) Barbie (4)

3) American Fiction (3)

4) Poor Things (2)

5) Killers of the Flower Moon (5)

Alternates: All of Us Strangers, The Zone of Interest, and Origin. 

BEST DOCUMENTARY 

1) American Symphony (1)

2) 20 Days in Mariupol (2)

3) Beyond Utopia (3)

4) Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie (4)

5) Four Daughters (5)

Alternates: The Eternal Memory, 32 Sounds and Desperate Souls, Dark City and the Legend of Midnight Cowboy.

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE

1) The Zone of Interest (1)

2) Society of the Snow (2)

3) The Taste of Things (3)

4) The Teachers' Lounge (4)

5) 20 Days in Mariupol (-)

Alternates: Fallen Leaves, Perfect Days and Totem.

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE FILM

1) Spiderman: Across the Spider-Verse (1)

2) The Boy and the Heron (2)

3) Elemental (3)

4) Nimona (4)

5) Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem (5)

Alternates: Suzume, Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget and Wish.

CINEMATOGRAPHY

1) Oppenheimer (1)

2) Killers of the Flower Moon (2)

3) Poor Things (3)

4) Maestro (4)

5) The Zone of Interest (5)

Alternates: Saltburn, El Conde and Barbie.

FILM EDITING

1) Oppenheimer (1)

2) Killers of the Flower Moon (3)

3) Poor Things (2)

4) Barbie (4)

5) The Holdovers (5)

Alternates: Anatomy of a Fall, Maestro and The Zone of Interest.

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

1) What Was I Made For/Barbie (1)

2) I'm Just Ken/Barbie (2)

3) Road to Freedom/Rustin (3)

4) The Fire Inside/Flamin' Hot (4)

5) It Never Went Away/American Symphony (5)

Dance the Night Away/Barbie, Can't Catch me Now/The Hunger Games and Superpower (I)/The Color Purple.

BEST SCORE

1) Oppenheimer (1)

2) Killers of the Flower Moon (2)

3) Poor Things (3)

4) Spiderman: Across the Spider-Verse (4)

5) The Zone of Interest (5)

Alternates: Society of the Snow, Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny and The Boy and the Heron.

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

1) Barbie (1)

2) Poor Things (2)

3) Oppenheimer (3)

4) Killers of the Flower Moon (4)

5) Maestro (5)

Alternates: Asteroid City, Napoleon and The Zone of Interest.

VISUAL EFFECTS

1) The Creator (1)

2) Guardians of the Galaxy: Vol. 3 (3)

3) Poor Things (2)

4) Society of the Snow (5)

5) Godzilla Minus One (4)

Alternates: Spiderman Across the Spider-Verse, Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny and Mission Impossible: Dead Reckoning.

SOUND

1) Oppenheimer (1)

2) Maestro (2)

3) Ferrari (3)

4) The Zone of Interest (4)

5) Barbie (-)

Alternates: Killers of the Flower Moon, Napoleon and The Killer.

COSTUMES 

1) Barbie (1)

2) Poor Things (2)

3) Killers of the Flower Moon (3)

4) Oppenheimer (5)

5) Napoleon (-)

Alternates: Maestro, the Little Mermaid and Ferrari.

MAKEUP AND HAIR

1) Maestro (1)

2) Poor Things (2)

3) Oppenheimer (3)

4) Golda (4)

5) Killers of the Flower Moon (5)

Alternates: Society of the Snow, Napoleon and Ferrari.

ANIMATED SHORT

1) Once Upon a Studio (1)

2) Letter to a Pig (4)

3) War Is Over Inspired by the Music of John and Yoko (2)

4) Ninety-Five Senses (-)

5) Humo (-)

Alternates: Koerkerter, Pete, Eeva.

LIVE ACTION SHORT

1) The Wonderful Life of Henry Sugar (1)

2) The Anne Frank Gift Shop (2)

3) The After (5)

4) Strange Way of Life (4)

5) Red, White and Blue (-)

Alternates: Knight of Fortune, Yellow and Good Boy.

DOCUMENTARY SHORT

1) The Last Repair Shop (1)

2) The ABCs of Book Banning (2)

3) Deciding Vote (3)

4) Last Song from Kabul (4)

5) The Barber of Little Rock (5)

Alternates: Camp Courage, Black Girls Play: The Story of Hand Games and Oasis.

NOTES ON OSCAR #96

If  I'm 100% accurate, these are the nominations on Tuesday for TFF films:

Poor Things (13- tied with Oppenheimer for the most nominations): Best Picture, Direction, Actress, Supporting Actor x 2, Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, Editing, Score, Production Design, Costumes, Makeup/Hair and Visual Effects.

The Holdovers (6): Best Picture, Direction, Actor, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay and Editing.  Also, a possible shot at Supporting Actor.  If this lands Payne, and Sessa and the Editing nomination...lookout Oppy.

The Zone of Interest (5): Best Picture, International Feature, Cinematography, Score and Sound.  Plus it could be a factor in five other categories: Direction, Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography and Production Design.  Imagine a world in which Zone has nominations tomorrow morning.

Anatomy of a Fall (3): Best Picture, Actress and Original Screenplay.  Plus possible shots at Direction and Editing.

Rustin (2): Best Actor and Original Song.

American Symphony (2): Best Doc Feature and Original Song.

Single nominations for:

Nyad: Best Supporting Actress and a possible Best Actress nom.

Beyond Utopia: Doc Feature.

The Taste of Things: Best International Feature.

The Teachers' Lounge: Best International Feature

TFF films that I'm not predicting with any nominations but could pop up:

Saltburn has a shot in five categories: Best Picture, Actor, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay and Cinematography.

All of Us Strangers maybe in three places: Best Picture, Actor and Adapted Screenplay.

Single "maybes" include:

Desperate Souls, Dark City and the Legend of Midnight Cowboy-Doc Feature

Fallen Leaves: International Feature

Perfect Days: International Feature

Totem: International Feature

El Conde: Cinematography

Strange Way of Life: Live Action Short

The Last Repair Shop: Doc Short

Last Sing from Kabul: Doc Short

So I'm predicting 38 nominations with another 22 possibly in play.

Non-TFF films that'll have big nomination totals tomorrow:

Oppenheimer (13): Best Picture, Direction, Actor, Supporting Actress, Supporting Actor, Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, Editing, Score, Production Design, Sound, Costumes and Makeup/Hair.

Barbie (11): Best Picture, Direction, Actress, Supporting Actor, Adapted Screenplay, Editing, Original Song x 2, Production Design, Sound and Costumes.  Barbie could get to 13 with possible nominations for Supporting actress and Cinematography.

Killers of the Flower Moon (11): Best Picture, Direction, Actress, Supporting Actor, Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, Editing, Score, Production Design, Costumes and Makeup/Hair.  If Leo sneaks into Best Actor, KOTFM could get a 12th nomination.

Maestro (8): Best Picture, Actress, Actor, Original Screenplay, Cinematography, Production Design, Sound and Makeup.  Maestro has a chance to get to double digit nominations if it could also land Direction, Editing and Costumes.

As a side note, my track record for nomination predictions over the last five years has averaged a 76.5% success rate.

2023: 93 0f 120-77.5%

2022: 87 of 120-72.5%

2021: 87 of 118-73.7%

2020: 100 of 124-80.6%

2019: 95 of 122-77.9%

Total 462 of 604-76.5%

Additionally, in about 25% of the categories where I miss one nomination, my first alternate gets in.

THE OSCAR EXPERTS FINAL PREDICTIONS

Here are links to several Final Predictions from Oscar Experts:

Clayton Davis/Variety

Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter

Sasha Stone/Awards Daily

Erik Anderson Awards Watch

Matt Neglia/Next Best Picture

Anne Thompson/Indiewire

Joey Magidson/Awards Radar

Mark Johnson/Good as Gold

Gregory Ellwood/The Playlist

Kyle Buchanan/The New York Times

Glenn Whipp/The Los Angeles Times

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com

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MTFB Oscar Update: Screenplays, International and Documentary Features, Cinematography and Editing / Interviews and Profiles: Dafoe, Mescal. Pike, Randolph and More

MTFB OSCAR UPDATE: SCREENPLAYS, INTERNATIONAL AND DOCUMENTARY FEATURES, CINEMATOGRAPHY AND EDITING.

Here's the latest MTFB Oscar Update.  As we move to less than a month before nomination announcements I am consolidating categories for each post. Today I'm updating the Screenplay, International Feature, Documentary Feature, Cinematography and Editing categories.  As usual TFF #50 films are in Bold.  A film's previous position on the MTFB Oscar chart is listed in parentheses.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1) The Holdovers (1)

2) Barbie (2)

3) Past Lives (3)

4) Anatomy of a Fall (4)

5) May December (-)

Alternates: Maestro, Air, Saltburn.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1) Oppenheimer (1)

2) American Fiction (2)

3) Poor Things (3)

4) Killers of the Flower Moon (4)

5) All of Us Strangers (5)

Alternates: The Zone of Interest,  Spiderman  Across the Spider-Verse and Are You There God, It's Me Margaret. 

BEST DOCUMENTARY 

1) American Symphony (1)

2) 20 Days in Mariupol (2)

3) Beyond Utopia (4)

4) Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie (3)

5) Four Daughters (5)

Alternates: The Eternal Memory, Going to Mars: The Nikki Giovanni Project and Stamped from the Beginning.

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE

1) The Zone of Interest (1)

2) The Taste of Things (2)

3) Society of the Snow (5)

4) The Teachers' Lounge (3)

5) Fallen Leaves (-)

Alternates: Perfect Days, 20 Days in Mariupol and Totem.

CINEMATOGRAPHY

1) Oppenheimer (1)

2) Killers of the Flower Moon (2)

3) Poor Things (3)

4) Maestro (4)

5) The Zone of Interest (5)

Alternates: Saltburn, Barbie and The Color Purple.

FILM EDITING

1) Oppenheimer (1)

2) Killers of the Flower Moon (2)

3) Poor Things (3)

4) Barbie (4)

5) Maestro (5)

Alternates: The Holdovers, Anatomy of a Fall and Air.

In all from 13 TFF films are represented in these categories with a predicted overall total of 13 nominations with another seven possibilities.  Here's the inventory from these six categories of nominations or possible nominations involving TFF films:

Poor Things with three nominations: Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography and Editing.

The Zone of Interest with two nominations: International Feature and Cinematography with another possible nomination for Adapted Screenplay.

The Holdovers with one nomination for Original Screenplay and another possible in Editing.

Anatomy of a Fall with one nomination for Original Screenplay and another possible for Editing.

Single predicted nominations for:

All of Us Strangers: Adapted Screenplay

American Symphony: Documentary 

Beyond Utopia: Documentary

The Taste of Things: International Feature

The Teachers' Lounge: International Feature

Fallen Leaves: International Feature

Films just outside the predicted nominations but still possible:

Saltburn with two possibilities: Original Screenplay and Cinematography.

Perfect Days could sneak into International Feature.

Totem could also slide into International Feature.

MTFB's Oscar Update will look at Animated Feature, Score, Song, Production Design, Visual Effects and Sound in the next post on New Year's day.

INTERVIEWS AND PROFILES: DAFOE, MESCAL, PIKE, RANDOLPH AND MORE

FOR ALL OF US STRANGERS:

Andrew Scott from Awards Watch.

Paul Mescal from Awards Watch.

Claire Foy from Awards Watch.

Jamie Bell from Awards Watch.

Jamie Bell and Claire Foy from Awards Daily.

Andrew Haigh from Wmagazine.com.

Claire Foy from The Playlist.

FOR POOR THINGS

Willem Dafoe from The Playlist.

Willem Dafoe from Awards Watch.

FOR THE HOLDOVERS

Da'Vine Joy Randolph from The Film Stage.

FOR FALLEN LEAVES

Alma Poysti from Awards Watch.

Alma Poysti from The Film Stage.

FOR THE ZONE OF INTEREST

Jonathan Glazer from Rolling Stone.

Sandra Huller from Backstage.com (also includes some talk of Anatomy of a Fall)

FOR SALTBURN

Rosamund Pike from Awards Watch.

Rosamund Pike from The Hollywood Reporter.

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National Board of Review Announces Film Superlatives / Independent Spirit Nominees Announced / MTFB Oscar Update: Best Picture and Direction (Plus First Predix for International and Documentary Features) / New Trailer and One Sheet for The Zone of Interest / International Trailer for All of Us Strangers / Interviews and Profiles: Giamatti, Bening, Keoghan and More

NBR ANNOUNCES FILM SUPERLATIVES

The National Board of Review announced its choices for film excellence for the year yesterday.  TFF films that made a mark in these categories:

The Holdovers: Paul Giamatti/Best Actor, Da'Vine Joy Randolph/Best Supporting Actress, Best Original Screenplay.

Poor Things: Mark Ruffalo/Best Supporting Actor, Best Adapted Screenplay.

Anatomy of a Fall: Best International Feature.

From the 10 Best Films list: The Holdovers and Poor Things.

From the 5 Best International Features list (all five played Telluride): La Chimaera, Fallen Leaves, The Teachers' Lounge, Totem and The Zone of Interest.

From the 10 Best Independent Films list: All of Us Strangers.

From the 5 Best Documentaries list: The Pigeon Tunnel.

Killers of the Flower Moon was named Best Film of the Year with Martin Scorsese named Best Director.

The complete NBR list is here.

INDEPENDENT SPIRIT NOMINEES ANNOUNCED

Seven Telluride Films garnered 11 Independent Spirit Award nominations.  Those nominees were announced last Tuesday morning.

The T-ride titles earning nominations were:

The Holdovers (4): Best Supporting Performance: Da'Vine Joy Randolph, Breakthrough Performance: Dominic Sessa, Screenplay and Cinematography.

All of Us Strangers (3): Best Feature, Direction and Lead Performance: Andrew Scott.

And four TFF films were nominated for Best International Feature: Anatomy of a Fall, The Zone of Interest, Godland and Totem.

May December, Past Lives and American Fiction tied for the highest total of five nominations.

The complete listing of nominees is linked here from Film Independent's website.

MTFB OSCAR UPDATE: BEST PICTURE AND DIRECTION PLUS FIRST PREDIX FOR INTERNATIONAL FEATURE AND DOC FEATURE

OSCAR UPDATE: BEST PICTURE AND DIRECTION

Here's MTFB's  Oscar Update.  Today I'm updating the Best Picture and Direction categories.  The last prediction for these two categories were posted on Nov. 23rd.  In addition, I am including my first guesses at nominees for Best Documentary and Best International Feature.  As usual TFF #50 films are in Bold.  A film's previous position on the MTFB Oscar chart is listed in parentheses.

BEST PICTURE

1) Oppenheimer (1)

2) Barbie (3)

3) American Fiction (6)

4) Killers of the Flower Moon (2)

5) Poor Things (4)

6) The Holdovers (5)

7) Maestro (7)

8) Past Lives (9)

9) The Color Purple (8)

10) The Zone of Interest (10)

Alternates:  Anatomy of a Fall, May December and Air.

BEST DIRECTION

1) Christopher Nolan/Oppenheimer (1)

2) Martin Scorsese/Killer of the Flower Moon (2)

3) Greta Gerwig/Barbie (3)

4) Yorgos Lanthimos/Poor Things (4)

5) Bradley Cooper/Maestro (-)

Alternates: Cord Jefferson/American Fiction, Jonathan Glazer/The Zone of Interest and Alexander Payne/The Holdovers

BEST DOCUMENTARY 

1) American Symphony

2) 20 Days in Mariupol

3) Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie

4) Beyond Utopia

5) Four Daughters

Alternates: Kokomo City, Silver Dollar Road and Anselm.

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE

1) The Zone of Interest

2) The Taste of Things

3) The Teachers' Lounge

4) Perfect Days

5) Society of the Snow

Alternates: Fallen Leaves, Shayda, 20 Days in Mariupol

 NEW TRAILER AND ONE SHEET FOR THE ZONE OF INTEREST

A24 has released a new trailer and one sheet for Jonathan Glazer's The Zone of Interest.  Here's the trailer via YouTube:

And the new one sheet:

INTERNATIONAL TRAILER FOR ALL OF US STRANGERS

INTERVIEWS AND PROFILES: GIAMATTI, BENING, KEOGAHN AND MORE

Paul Giamatti for The Holdovers from AP News.

Annette Bening for Nyad from Gold Derby.

Barry Keoghan for Saltburn from Gold Derby.

Jacob Elordi for Saltburn from The Hollywood Reporter.

Writer/Director Emerald Fennell for Saltburn from The Hollywood Reporter.

Juliette Binoche for The taste of Things from The Hollywood Reporter.

Costumer Holly Waddington for Poor Things from The Playlist and Gold Derby.

Sandra Huller for Anatomy of a Fall and The Zone of Interest from The Film Stage.

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American Symphony Leads Critics' Choice Doc Nominations / The Bikeriders Moves On /Trailer for The Zone of Interest / Featurette for Nyad / Trailer for The Last Repair Shop / Interviews: Payne, Huller, Morris, Triet and Baker / Last Note: KOTFM

AMERICAN SYMPHONY LEADS THE CRITICS CHOICE DOC NOMINATIONS

The awards season has well and truly gotten out of the starting gate with the announcement earlier this week with The Critics Choice awards nominations being announced.  American Symphony which debuted at Telluride a few weeks back led the parade with six nominations including Best Doc Feature, Best Music Doc,  Best Direction, Best Cinematography, Best Editing and Best Score according Erik Anderson of Awards Watch.

Other films that screened at TFF #50 also earned mention among the nominees including:

Beyond Utopia: Best Doc Feature, Best Political Doc, Best Direction, Best Editing

The Mission: Best Doc Feature, Best Editing, Best Score

Occupied City: Best Historical Doc, Best Direction, Best Cinematography

Orlando: My Political Biography: Best First Doc Feature

Bobi Wine: The People's President (from TFF #49): Best First Doc Feature, Best Political Doc

The Last Repair Shop: Best Short Doc, Best Score

Anselm: Best Cinematography

The Pigeon Tunnel: Best Score

The Last Song from Kabul: Best Short Doc

The Critics Choice Documentary winners win be announced on Nov. 12th.

THE BIKERIDERS MOVES ON

The word came yesterday that Jeff Nichols' The Bikeriders has moved off of its previously announced release date.  Originally the film was supposed to have debuted on Dec. 1st.  Screen Daily, among others, reported the date change.  At this point no replacement date has been announced although I did see some mention in other reports that suggest that Disney still plans to release the film in time for awards season.

TRAILER FOR GLAZER'S ZONE OF INTEREST

A24 has released a first teaser/trailer for Jonathan Glazer's brilliant The Zone of Interest.  The film is set for a limited release on Dec. 15th.  Of all of the films I saw at TFF #50, Zone is the one that has stuck with me most strongly.  Here's the teaser from YouTube:

FEATURETTE FOR NYAD

Netflix has released a "behind the scenes" featurette (3:32) for Jimmy Chin and Elizabeth Chai Vasarhelyi's Nyad.  The film is set for a limited release on Nov. 3rd.  Here's the featurette from YouTube:

TRAILER FOR THE LAST REPAIR SHOP

INTERVIEWS: PAYNE, HULLER, MORRIS, TRIET AND BAKER

Alexander Payne from Indiewire.

Alexander Payne from Gold Derby.

Annie Baker from InterviewMagazine.com

Sandra Huller from The A.Frame

Errol Morris from Pop Culture Confidential

Justine Triet from the Canadian Broadcast Company

LAST NOTE: KOTFM

If you go see Killers of the Flower Moon this weekend, like I'll be doing, look for me.  If I made it into the film as a background player it's likely in one of two scenes.  The arrests of DeNiro and DiCaprio's characters.  Those were shot separately.  The best chance you'll have to actually see me is in the DiCaprio scene as I am in a crowd clamoring as DiCaprio is put in a car and driven away.

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