Oscar Nomination Predictions Updates: Effects / Present for In the Absence / A Hidden Life / The Aeronauts

OSCAR NOMINATIONS PREDICTIONS UPDATED: EFFECTS

On this Boxing Day, I take a look at my latest assessment at the Oscar nomination chances for the categories of Visual Effects as well as Sound Editing and Sound Mixing.  I last assessed these categories on Nov. 25th.  As always, TFF #46 films are indicated with Bold.



 VISUAL EFFECTS

1) Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (2)
2) The Irishman (4)
3) The Lion King (1)
4) Avengers: Endgame (3)
5) 1917 (-)
6) Alita: Battle Angel (-)

Other possibles: Gemini Man, Cats, Captain Marvel


SOUND EDITING

1) 1917 (1)
2) Ford v Ferrari (2)
3) Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (3)
4) Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood (6)
5) Avengers: Endgame (5)
6) Joker (-)

Other possibles: Ad Astra, The Irishman, Toy Story 4


SOUND MIXING

1) 1917 (1)
2) Ford v Ferrari (3)
3) Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (2)
4) Once Upon a Time... (5)
5) Rocketman (6)
6) Ad Astra (4)

Other possibles: The Irishman, Avengers: Endgame, Toy Story 4



PRESENT FOR IN THE ABSENCE

 If you read the previous post, you know that I crowed about getting my first Oscar film screener.  That came last week from the producers of the Oscar short-listed Documentary Short Subject film  In the Absence.

The 29 minute film explores the sinking of a South Korean ferry boat in 2014 that cost the lives of nearly 300 people and seeks to reveal the choices among bureaucrats that contributed to the loss of life.

I found it harrowing and moving, and of course will now keep my fingers crossed that it moves from the short list to the list of nominated doc shorts that are announced on Jan. 13th.

The IMDb page for In the Absence is linked here.


A HIDDEN LIFE

Here's a link to Anne Thompson's (Indiewire) video interview with the two lead actors from Terrence Malick's  A Hidden Life: August Diehl and Valerie Pachner.

Click here.

A Hidden Life opened in limited release on Dec. 13th.


THE AERONAUTS

Gregory Ellwood of The Playlist sat down recently with Oscar nominee Felicity Jones who stars in Amazon Studios The Aeronauts for an interview.

That interview is linked here.

The Aeronauts bowed on Amazon Prime on Dec. 20th.

Ups and Downs / Revelation from Venice / The Show

Welcome back from your last July weekend for 2019...


UPS AND DOWNS

Jeff Wells at Hollywood Elsewhere tells us that James Gray's As Astra is NOT going to be playing Telluride.  The information is not attributed but Jeff knows way more people than I do.

Wells also reported the same thing I had at the bottom of my post on Friday.  That Andreas Wiseman had written for Deadline that Tom Harper's The Aeronauts is likely headed to the San Juans for Labor Day weekend.

Jeff also links a Pamela McClintock piece from The Hollywood Reporter that makes that same claim.  That THR post is linked here.

And, for good measure, the Wells post from this weekend is linked here.

So, to re-cap, it seems that The Aeronauts is up and Ad Astra is down.



REVELATION FROM VENICE

Venice Film Festival head Alberto Barbera seems to have the "cow" out of the bag.  Barbera claimed in an interview with Screen Daily that was published Friday that the only film that he wanted to program but could not was Kelly Reichardt's First Cow (I'm considering an online petition to change the title of this film) and that A24 had decided to screen the film only in America as it has not found an international distributor as yet.  He also is flat quoted as saying that, as a consequence, the film is headed to Telluride.

First Cow also does not appear to have a U.S. release date.

Here's the Screen Daily linked.



THE SHOW

Just a bit of a rumination here.

When I began this thing in 2008 nobody else was messing around with trying to peg the films for Telluride.  Sure, there were the occasional pieces that would pop up.  One shot guesses that you'd find online but not a lot.  And certainly nothing in any official way from big time media.

As the years have gone on, and especially with the decision from the Toronto Fest to require that they know what a film's actual status is regarding which fests it's going to play and then their further decision to publicly reveal that status in their programming announcements, it seems increasingly that the reticence from media to deduce the films that will play Telluride has begun to fade.

Last week Screen Daily, for instance, included an assessment that did exactly what I do and have done for several seasons, which is to sort of reverse engineer the announcement from TIFF to make claims about what goes to Telluride.

World of Reel and Hollywood Elsewhere have been all over essentially the same list that I've put together as has BBC News, The Wrap and a couple of hints from Pete Hammond at Deadline.com,

It's generally pretty accurate unless Toronto mis-labels a film's status (which has happened rarely) or, sometimes with regard to International premieres because that designation can get a little murky.

Nevertheless, it feels to me that more outlets are willing to do the same process and publish the results.

Not sure how I feel about that...

Here's the July 23rd Screen Daily article that does what I'm talking about.


CURRENT TEN BETS...

10) The Truth
9) Ford v. Ferrari
8) The Two Popes
7) Pain and Glory
6) Uncut Gems
5) Judy
4) Motherless Brooklyn
3) Marriage Story
2) Portrait of a Lady on Fire
1) Parasite

That's the Monday MTFB.  More tomorrow...


EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com

TWITTER @Gort2 (and follow me there as well)

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COMMENT TO THE BLOG

Testing...Testing... / Venice Certainties? / Trailer for On the Basis of Sex

Good Tuesday everyone...

TESTING...TESTING...

Variety's Kris Tapley tweeted late Sunday evening that both Josie Rourke's Mary Queen of Scots and James Gray's Ad Astra starring Brad Pitt, Ruth Negga and Tommy Lee Jones will be test screening this week:

I have avoided talking/thinking about Ad Astra all summer as it has been dated as a 2019 release.  However, I have seen some mention that if 20th Century Fox thought the film had a strong play that they might move the release to compete in this season's awards melee.

This sounds as if that process is on-going.  The other 20th Century Fox player is Bradley Cooper's A Star Is Born.

Could it play at The SHOW?  Still very unlikely but the fact that it's testing this week suggests that it's not entirely outside the realm of possibility.

Similarly, Tapley later added that Backseat (the Dick Cheney film with Christian Bale) is also testing.  The film is being distributed by Annapurna which I am morally certain will be at TFF with If Beale Street Could Talk.  I could see them bringing a second film and they have a deep bench of other possible films: Backseat, Destroyer, The Sisters Brothers.

VENICE CERTAINTIES?

Jordan Ruimy's World of Reel posted "Venice Certainties" on Sunday night.  Ruimy says he's (as I mentioned yesterday) that he's hearing the same Venice rumor about The Other Side of the Wind opening that fest. 

He also says he's heard four films are locks for Venice:

Luca Guadagnino's Suspiria

Jacques Audiard's The Sisters Brothers

Alfonso Cuaron's Roma

and Francois Ozon's Alexandre.

The inclusion of the films from Audiard and Cuaron would not surprise nor would they preclude a double play at Telluride.  Frankly, I doubt that we'll see Suspiria.  However, the Ozon is another matter.  That popped up from nowhere.  Alexandre is dated for 2019 according to IMDb.  

It's worth noting that Ozon's Frantz played at TFF in 2015.

The Ruimy post at World of Reel is here.

TRAILER FOR ON THE BASIS OF SEX

We got word last week that the trailer for Mimi Leder's Ruth Bader Grinsburg flick starring Felicity Jones as the young but eventual Supreme Court justice would be dropping soon.  "Soon" was yesterday.

Here's the trailer via YouTube:

On the Basis of Sex is set to open on Dec. 25th.

I have linked coverage of the trailer release from:

The Film Stage

Indiewire

Variety

BTW: rumors are swirling that trailers for Biy Earsed and Bohemian Rhapsody will appear tomorrow.  Stay tuned!

That's your Tuesday wrap for MTFB.

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com

TWITTER @Gort2 (and follow me there as well)

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COMMENT TO THE BLOG

Foreign Oscar Shortlist/Dern and Nebraska/Behind Inside/The Past's Farhadi/The Visible Felicity Jones

Good Christmas Eve Eve...or Monday...

OSCAR FOREIGN SHORTLIST

The Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences winnowed the list of 70+ Foreign Language Film submissions down to 9 titles this past week and what as noticeable as the films that made the cut were the omissions and that left a number of Telluride films that had been hotly tipped as Oscar nominees out.

Pre-announcement Telluride films that were snubbed included "The Past", "Gloria" and TFF #39's "Wadjda"

Telluride wasn't totally left unrepresented in the shortlist as "The Missing Picture" made the cut and last year's Mads Mikkelsen starrer "The Hunt" was also listed.

The final nine also included:

"The Broken Circle Breakdown"
"An Episode in the Life of an Iron Picker"
"Two Lives"
"The Grandmaster"
"The Notebook"
"The Great Beauty"
"Omar"

Next, the Academy members have to knock the list down to five.  If I were handicapping it (like I know anything about this), I'd guess that "The Hunt", "The Grandmaster", "The Great Beauty" and "The Broken Circle" Breakdown" are likely nominees with the fifth film up in the air.

The Playlist has the story about this week's announcement:

http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/the-grandmaster-the-hunt-the-great-beauty-more-make-oscar-foreign-language-film-shortlist-20131220

DERN AND NEBRASKA

The Bruce Dern Oscar campaign continues full force.  Dern's interview with AwardsLine's (Deadline.com) Anna Lisa Raya was posted this week and you can find that here:

http://www.deadline.com/2013/12/oscars-2014-bruce-dern-nebraska-interview/


BEHIND INSIDE

One of my favorite moments in The Coen Brothers' "Inside Llewyn Davis" is the recording session that produces "Please Mr. Kennedy".  It sums up a number of the themes of the film and is just a hoot.

In the scene Adam Driver appears as a specialty background singer and is a highlight.  Driver recently talked to Nigel M. Smith for IndieWire about "Inside Llewyn Davis" and other topics here:

http://www.indiewire.com/article/adam-driver-on-singing-for-the-coen-brothers-on-inside-llewyn-davis-and-why-he-keeps-coming-back-to-girls


THE PAST'S FARHADI

Asghar Farhadi's follow up to his Oscar winning " A Separation", "The Past" was very well received at Telluride over Labor Day weekend.  As mentioned above, the film was snubbed by The Academy FLF committee and to the surprise of many, including me, it was not shortlisted for this year's Oscar.

Nevertheless, Film Journal's (And friend of MTFB) Tomris Laffly talked to the auteur about the new film:

http://www.filmjournal.com/filmjournal/content_display/news-and
features/features/movies/e3id1e1bc718e4cd0f322b8201ded442ba9

THE VISIBLE FELICITY JONES

The actress at the center of Ralph Fiennes Charles Dickens film, "The Invisible Woman" is Felicity Jones. She is the "invisible" woman referenced in the title.  Reactions to the film was divided in Telluride but ones generally received high marks for her portrayal of the younger woman that captured Dickens heart.

Jones recently sat down with Drew Taylor for this interview with The Playlist:

 http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/interview-the-invisible-womans-felicity-jones-talks-her-dickensian-drama-what-it-was-like-working-with-ralph-fiennes-and-how-much-she-loves-spider-man-20131217


That's all for this Monday.  I'm hoping to catch David O. Russell's "American Hustle" today...really looking forward to it!

For those that celebrate it, Merry Christmas!

More on Thursday!