A Master Passes / Oscar Biz Buzz: Business Insider, Variety and Awrads Daily / Telluride Filmmakers in The NY

Welcome to the next the third Monday in October...


A MASTER PASSES

Pierre Etaix in The Dardennes' Le Havre-TFF #38-2011

Film aficionados from around the world paused in sadness this week as French film comedy master Pierre Etaix died Indiewire reported on Friday.  Etaix was one of Telluride's tribute recipients in 2011. Etaix won an Oscar in 1963 for his short film Happy Anniversary.  Etaix was venerated by film makers from Jerry Lewis to Woody Allen and is frequently compared to Chaplin, Keaton and Tati.

Here's the text from TFF's 2011 program about Etaix and the tribute:

And his IMDb page is here.

Additionally, here's the Indiewire story about his passing.

OSCAR BIZ BUZZ: BUSINESS INSIDER, VARIETY LOOKS AT FOREIGN AND AWARDS DAILY UPDATES

As we count down the second half of October, we're beginning to finally see the plans studios have for their Oscar possibles.  We learned, for example, just this past week that 20th Century Fox has dated Hidden Figures for a limited (and therefore Oscar qualifying release) on Dec. 25th.

We also found out that Martin Scorsese has trimmed the running time for Silence , which was originally going to run over three hours, to a meager 2 hrs. 39 min.  Reportedly more than a half an hour of the original cut has disappeared.  Wow.  That's a lot of film to have been edited out.

Ang Lee's much anticipated Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk received decidedly mixed reviews at its premiere at the New York Film Festival.  A lot of Oscary types think that it's probably toast in the major categories but Awards Daily's Sasha Stone says "not so fast" reminding everyone that Lee's Life of Pi also opened to mixed responses and was discounted by Oscar pundits and ended up with 11 nominations and four wins.

In as afar as Oscar Biz Buzz that relates to Telluride films this week, I offer the following...

Business Insiders Entertainment section offered their take on what they believe are the most likely Oscar winners in several categories at the midpoint of October.  To wit:

Best Picture: La La Land.  Also in contention according to BI: Arrival, Moonlight, Manchester by the Sea and Sully.

Best Director: Damien Chazelle/La La Land.  Others in the mix: Eastwood/Sully, Jenkins/Moonlight, Lonergan/Manchester, and Villenueve/Arrival

Best Actress: Emma Stone/La La Land.  Also in play from TFF #43: Amy Adams/Arrival

Best Actor: Casey Affleck/Manchester by the Sea.  In the running: Ryan Gosling/La La Land, Tom Hanks/Sully

Supporting Actress: Naomie Harris/Moonlight.  Also in play: Michelle Williams/Manchester

Supporting Actor: Michael Shannon/Nocturnal Animals.  TFFers: Mahershala Ali/Moonlight

Original Screenplay: Hell or High Water.  TFF #43 peeps: Chazelle/La La Land, Jenkins and 

McCraney/Moonlight and Lonergan/Manchester 

Adapted Screenplay: Lion.  BI lists no TFF candidates for Adapted Screenplay although I think they're overlooking Eric Heisserer fro Arrival.

Animated Feature: Zootopia.  Nada from TFF.

Cinematography: Billy Lynn.  TFF possibles; La La Land, Moonlight, Arrival

Documentary Feature: OJ: Made in America.  Telluride docs in the mix: Into the Inferno and The Eagle Huntress

Take a look at the entire article here.

Also in the Oscar Biz Buzz today...Variety's Guy Lodge takes an impressive deep look at the possible players for Best Foreign Language Film.  He does make mention of the three TFF #43 films that have the best shot at making the final five: Toni Erdmann, Neruda and Fire at Sea.  Check Lodge's assessment here.

And, as she always does, Sasha Stone at Awards Daily put up her latest Oscar assessment of Friday. Her focus this week was on the Best Actor race.  Look at Sasha's latest Oscar musings here.

TELLURIDE FILMMAKERS IN NY

  

I have appended a couple of interviews that have occurred as a result of TFF #43 films that have played at the New York Film Festival over the past two weeks.  Two form Moonlight's writer/director Barry Jenkins and another from Manchester by the Sea writer/director Kenneth Lonergan;

Here's your look at the Mary Kate O'Toole interview of Barry Jenkins.  And another from New York featuring Jenkins with Nicholas Kemp.

And the interview with Lonergan by O'Toole.

That'll be a wrap for this Monday.  Return to MTFB/FAC on Thursday for more.

And contact me via:

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com

TWITTER @Gort2 (and follow me there as well)

FACEBOOK Message me on FB MTFB's Facebook Page

COMMENT to the Blog itself.

The People's Telluride Revealed / A Week Removed and Some Reflections / The Gold Derby Says...

Welcome to Monday and the return for MTFB to a more manageable, less crazed twice-a-week posting schedule (Mondays and Thursdays) with extra posts when news warrants...

Call your friends and neighbors because it's time for...


THE PEOPLE'S TELLURIDE REVEALED

After collecting data from MTFB readers for a week I have the results of this year's People's Telluride film festival ratings.  Using a 1-5 scale with 1 being "not-so-good" and 5 being "a masterpiece".

The People's Telluride had its largest participation since I started it a few years back which is gratifying.  For the purposes of the ratings and to maintain some semblance of balance, I have limited the list of films included to those that were rated by at least a third of respondents.  Over 40 films/programs were rated by at least one respondent and 21 received enough votes to be included in the final ratings.  The films that were the hottest tickets based on the fact that they were the most rated/viewed were:

1) Arrival
2) La La Land
3) Moonlight
4) Sully
5) Bleed for This

The People's Telluride Ratings for 2016 (the number in parentheses is the film's average rating)

1) Moonlight (4.37)
2) La La Land (4.33)
3) Maudie (4.29)
4) The Eagle Huntress (4.21)
5) Manchester by the Sea (4.18)
6) Arrival (4.13)
7) Bright Lights (3.90)
8) Frantz (3.89)
9) Toni Erdmann (3.80)
10) Sully (3.79)
11) Lost in Paris (3.69)
12) Wakefield (3.59)
13) California Typewriter (3.53)
14) Bleed for This (3.413)
15) Una (3.406)
16) Norman (3.30)
17) Chasing Trane (3.29)
18) Through the Wall (3.17)
19) Things to Come (3.05)
20) Graduation (2.90)
21) Into the Inferno (2.86)

It's worth noting that the film that has finished in the SECOND spot of this poll for the last four years has won the Oscar for Best Picture;

2012- Argo wins Oscar (Stories We Tell was #1 in The Peep's T-ride)
2013- 12 Years a Slave wins Oscar (Tim's Vermeer was #1)
2014- Birdman wins Oscar (The Imitation Game was #1)
2015- Spotlight wins Oscar (Room was #1)

In 2016 La La Land finishes #2 in The Peep's poll and Moonlight is #1.  Does this portend La La Land winning Best Picture?

One other La La Land note, over the weekend Emma Stone who I last saw with my own eyeballs eight days ago in Town Park won Venice's Vest Actress Award for La La Land.

Some other history...none of this year's films crack the Top Ten People's rated films in the five year history of its existence.  Here are the ten best rated films of the past five years according to the People:

1) Stories We Tell-12 (4.80)
2) Argo-12 (4.75)
3) The Imitation Game-14  (4.73)
4) The Attack-12  (4.70)
5) Tim's Vermeer-13 (4.67)
6) 12 Years a Slave -13 (4.55)
7) Room -15 (4.47)
8) Birdman-14 (4.46)
9) Spotlight-15 (4.45)
10) The Act of Killing-12 (4.41)

Moonlight's 4.37 rating would put it at #12 just behind Gravity (4.40) and just ahead of Beasts of No Nation (4.35).

The lowest all time (well for these five years) is from 2012...Paradise: Love with a 1.1 rating and over that time span 98 films have gotten enough responses to be included in The People's Telluride.

COMING THURSDAY...The Professionals Telluride.




A WEEK REMOVED AND SOME REFLECTIONS

The 43rd edition of the Telluride Film Festival came to a close a week ago today.  My wife and I stayed through Monday evening for the first time in years and I have to say I'm glad we did.  It allowed us to get a couple of more films and it also allowed us to stay for the Labor Day Picnic which turned out to be a big deal to me (see below).

Encounters with readers throughout the weekend really made me think that MTFB has gained a modestly substantial following.  I kept running into people through the fest that would mention that they were readers.  I am always thrilled and also disconcerted at that.  The notion that people would recognize me as a result of the blog never entered my mind when I started writing in this space eight years ago.  It is humbling and esteeming all at the same time.

Last year I was stunned when Malala's Yousefzai's father reached out to me to arrange a meeting because he had been a reading the blog.  This year's head turner came on Monday when, as I was congratulating Barry Jenkins for his direction I mentioned that I "wrote a little blog about the festival" at which point he stopped me to ask "Are you Michael?"

Well, I was floored.  This is a young man who is right on the cusp of his big breakout with Moonlight and he knows who I am?  Craziness.

We continued the short conversation and I went on my merry way (actually to the Gondola to The Chuck to catch Bleed for This...Oscar nom for Aaron Eckhardt please).

Later I contacted Mr. Jenkins through Twitter and also friend requested him on Facebook.  We're friends now.  I promised that I wouldn't be a stalker.

Other items...

***The final Ten (Plus) Bets list from day before the lineup for this year was announced was 20 for 20. That's right.  For those keeping score, every film on that last list made the TFF #43 lineup.

Here's how MTFB has done with last posted predictions over these past few years:

2016-20/20
2015-19/20
2014-15/15
2013-14/15
2012-15/20
2011-12/18


As you can see, I've gotten better and to be fair, the process is easier since Toronto laid down their "honest premiere status" policy in 2014.


***With today's posting of the results of The People's Telluride Ratings, and since you have shared your ratings with me,  I thought I'd share my ratings with you:

1) La La Land 4.5
2) Moonlight 4
3) Arrival 4
4) Sully 4
5) Toni Erdmann 4
6) Bright Lights 4
7) Manchester by the Sea 3.5
8) Norman 3.5
9) Una 3.5
10) Wakefield
11) Bleed for This 3
12) Through the Wall 3



THE GOLD DERBY SAYS...

If you've followed this blog for awhile you know that it's about to switch its focus for the next six months or so and report on the Oscar race with particular focus on the films that played at TFF #43.

To that end, here's a breakdown of the leaders in the major six categories at the conclusion of the fest (but before Toronto and Venice have finished) from The Gold Derby.

Best Picture nominations would go to: Manchester by the Sea, La La Land, Moonlight and Arrival (assuming at least eight films are nominated.  Sully is also a possibility.

Best Direction nominations would go to: Kenneth Lonergan/Manchester by the Sea and Damien Chazelle/La La Land.  Close: Denis Villenueve/Arrival, Barry Jenkins/Moonlight and Clint Eastwood/Sully.

Best Actress: Emma Stone/La La Land with Amy Adams/Arrival as a possibility.

Best Actor: Casey Affleck/Manchester by the Sea, Ryan Gosling/La La Land with Tom Hanks/Sully  as a possibility.

Best Supporting Actress: Michelle Williams/Manchester by the Sea, Naomie Harris/Moonlight

Best Supporting Actor: Lucas Hedges/Manchester by the Sea, Marhershala Ali/Moonlight and Kyle Chandler/Manchester by the Sea

From these six categories Manchester would earn six nominations, La La Land would get four, Moonlight would get four with another possibility, Arrival would get one with another two possible and Sully has three possible.

Check the complete odds for the current Gold Derby predictions here.

Contact me at:

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com

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COMMENT to the Blog itself.

SATURDAY TBA'S

TBA'S FOR SATURDAY:

I'm taking these TBAs from what is appearing on the TFF #43 App as of late last night:

By Venue:

The Galaxy:
1:15 Manchester by the Sea
7:45 Arrival

The Zog
1:00 Wakefield
4:00 The Eagle Huntress
10:00 Lost in Paris

The Masons
3:00 Things to Come
8:00 Great Expectations
10:30 End of Eden

Le Pierre
8:15pm Fire at Sea
10:30pm Maudie

Hints and Allegations / Tributes Anyone? / Sully Shots

Good Monday everyone.  The 43rd Telluride Film Festival begins in 4 days!


HINTS AND ALLEGATIONS

I ran across a lot of revealing information over the weekend pointing to confirmations or near confirmations of a number of films that dot the latest Ten (Plus) Bets list from last Friday.

The most telling is the all but certainty now that Clint Eastwood's Sully is part of the fest this week.

Jeff Wells of Hollywood Elsewhere nudged up against declaring it to be a part of the lineup on Friday afternoon in this HE Post .  Then Saturday evening Wells went all in saying that Sully "will premiere at next weekend's Telluride Film Festival."  That post is Here .

So count Sully as an in...and more about some possible ramifications below...

Also buttressing the Sully claim was the latest Screen Talk podcast from Indiewire featuring Anne Thomson and Eric Kohn (both of whom will join in from Telluride this week as part of The Professionals who will rate films that they see for MTFB).  The first part of the podcast deals with Telluride and its influence and though they go to great pains to stress that they "know nothing" they suggest a number of "possibilities".  I suspect that they "know" more than they can admit.

They run out five titles including Sully.  The other four currently are in the last Ten Bets list and they are: Arrival, Manchester by the Sea, La La Land and Bleed for This.  So, though they can't tell us any more than that these titles are speculative, it is my belief that they are all but confirming them for this weekend.

That podcast is here: Indiewire Screen Talk: Telluride

Additionally, Pete Hammond writing for Deadline.com mentions in his review of the just opened Hands of Stone mentions the wave of boxing pics arriving at nearly the same time writing "Bleed for this which debuts next week at the Telluride Film Festival".  That review is here: Deadline.com

And still there is more...

A number of sharp eyed individuals contacted MTFB in the past couple of days to give me a heads up with regard to this year's TFF app.

If you downloaded the app already, then you will have seen the tab to click for the map.  If you do that or look at this screen grab:

You're going to see mention of The Eagle Huntress for the Abel Gance Outdoor Theater (letter B) and The Elsa Dorfman Gallery at The Courthouse (letter D).

These clues tell us that the documentary The Eagle Huntress (From Sony Pictures Classics) will be playing the festival in some capacity and that the Elsa Dorfman Gallery presence confirms that Errol Morris' The B-Side will be playing as well.  A note about The Eagle Huntress: it played Sundance back in January and its presence along with the now-expected Manchester by the Sea will mark the first time that I'm aware that TFF has programmed two Sundance films in a single year.

So, taken altogether, we can add two more films to the "we're pretty sure" will play list: Sully and The Eagle Huntress and we believe that five others are all but confirmed: The B-Side, La La Land, Manchester, Arrival and Bleed for This.

And don't forget, we added Bright Lights: Starring Carrie Fischer and Debbie Reynolds last Friday via Anne Thompson.

Remember the final Ten (Plus) Bets will be posted Wednesday morning.

TRIBUTES ANYONE?

I've touched on possible tributes a few times this summer and now, with so few days remaining, it seems like a good time to get really serious about assessing who might get Silver Medallions this weekend.

To start, let's look at the list of possible attendees I posted on Aug. 23:

From Things to Come: Isabelle Huppert

From La La Land: Emma Stone  and Ryan Gosling (JK Simmons would be cool too)

From Arrival: Amy Adams, Forest Whitaker and Jeremy Renner

From Moonlight: Mahershala Ali, Naomie Harris and Janelle Monae

From Bleed for This: Miles Teller, Katey Sagal and Aaron Eckhardt (Ted Levine would be cool too)

From Neruda: Gael Garcia Bernal

From Una: Rooney Mara and Ben Mendelsohn

From Maudie: Sally Hawkins and Ethan Hawke

From: Manchester by the Sea: Casey Affleck and Michelle Williams (producer Matt Damon would be cool too)

From: Norman: The Moderate Rise... Richard Gere (Steve Buscemi and Hank Azaria would be cool too)

From: Wakefield: Bryan Cranston and Jennifer Garner

From other possibles and still outside shots:

From Sully: Tom Hanks, Laura Linney, Aaron Eckhardt and director Clint Eastwood

From: The Accountant: Ben Affleck and Anna Kendrick (JK Simmons, John Lithgow and Jeffrey Tambor would also be cool)

From Live by Night: Ben Affleck, Scott Eastwood, Zoe Saldana and Elle Fanning (Chris Cooper, Chris Medina, Brendan Gleeson would also be cool)

From Eternity: Audrey Tautou, Berenice Bejo and Melanie Laurent

From The Founder: Michael Keaton, Laura Dern (Nick Offerman would be cool)

From The Circle:Tom Hanks and Emma Watson (Patton Oswalt would be cool)

From Gold: Matthew McConnaughey, Bryce Dallas Howard and Edgar Ramirez (Corey Stoll and Bill Camp would be very, very cool)

From Miss Sloane: Jessica Chastain (Mark Strong, Michael Stuhlbarg, John Lithgow and Sam Waterston would be cool)

From The Sense of an Ending: Emily Mortimer (Jim Broadbent would be cool)

From this list we can move Sully from the "other possibles and outside shots" to the "probable" category and see what we can discern.

Let's focus on the films listed here that seem "probable" now for T-ride.

First, we can dispel both Clint Eastwood and Isabelle Huppert from tribute consideration as each have already been feted by TFF (Huppert in 1986 and Eastwood in 1990).  Rooney Mara was tributed last year, so mark her off.  Lauara Linney was also a tributee (2004).

Of the actors in the probable list...I can see the possibility of wither Forest Whitaker or Amy Adams from Arrival getting a tribute.  Whitaker's Best Actor Oscar in 2007 came from Last King of Scotland which made a big splash at the 2006 TFF.

Neruda offers Telluride regular Gael Garcia Bernal who could easily be set for a tribute for his now fairly lengthy career.

Maybe Ethan Hawke or for that matter Sally Hawkins both of whom are in Maudie.

From Manchester by the Sea, I could actually see producer Matt Damon getting a tribute.

Richard Gere would be a terrific tribute candidate and I expect that if Norman: The Rise and Fall plays, he could well be in town.

Wakefield's Bryan Cranston is red hot right now but as most of his experience has been in television up to the last few years, I suspect a tribute for him is farther down the road.

And, of course, if Sully is in play, Tom Hanks seems to scream for a tribute.  But remember, I was all in for a Michael Keaton tribute last year.  Was really certain that would happen and...um...I was wrong.  So even what seems like an obvious choice might not be the actual choice.

Tributes at Telluride are rarely completely actor focused.  Directors are also a big favorite for the honors but finding a director from the "probable" list that isn't relatively early in their career is a bit difficult (Chazelle, Hansen-Love, Villeneuve for examples).  So, maybe TFF looks eleswhere for a tribute.

Or, I'd still like the fest to honor the film Taxi Driver on its 40th anniversary in much the same way that they did Apocalypse Now a couple of years ago.

Nevertheless, the above paragraphs could contain the names of each of the three recipients or none at all.  TFF tributes are notoriously difficult to anticipate.

You have any ideas or guesses?  Shoot me a line.  My contact info is below.


SULLY SHOTS

Tom Hanks in Sully (via The Playlist)

Now that we're thinking that Sully is a probable lock to play the fest, it seems like The Playlist's post from yesterday with a ton of stills from the film might be fun for those of you looking forward to it, here's a link to that post.  Sully Pics from The Playlist


One other note about Sully; I suspect that its inclusion means that we will not see Warners other two possible films that I have been keeping tabs on this summer: Live by Night and The Accountant.


REMINDER...

Don't forget to relay your film ratings for The People's Telluride this weekend.  I'd suggest that you wait until we get through the whole of the fest and then contact me with your complete list of films and your ratings of them on a 1 to 5 scale with 1 being poor and 5 being wonderful!  Use any of the contact methods below:

Contact MTFB at:

mpgort@gmail.com

OR on Twitter @Gort2

OR check out Michael's Telluride Film Blog on Facebook:

Michael's Telluride Film Blog Facebook Page

Or leave a comment.