UPDATES ON OSCAR FROM THE FAC: SCREENPLAYS AND MORE
Almost everyone I know in the professional Oscar Pundit Universe has commented repeatedly about the fluidity and unpredictability of the Oscar season to date. That has not diminished over the past three weeks since I last posted the Screenplay categories. It has made it a fun season and suggests that we're going to see some surprises a week from today. Cool.
For the purpose of The FAC I gather data from the publicly posted predictions of the following:
Erik Anderson/Awards Watch
Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit
Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter
Joey Magidson/Hollywood News
Nathaniel Rogers/Film Experience
Sasha Stone/Awards Daily
Kristopher Tapley/Variety-InContention
Anne Thompson/Thompson on Hollywood
You may have noticed the absence of Peter Knegt from Indiewire. He has left that website and consequently, it appears that Indiewire has doubled up on Anne Thompson's predictions.
The positions that these possible nominees had in our last look at these categories is indicated in parenthesis.
TFF #42 films are in Bold.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
1) Room (1)
2) The Big Short (5)
3) The Martian (3)
4) Steve Jobs (2)
5) Carol (6)
6) Brooklyn (4)
7) Anomalisa (7)
8) The Revenant (8)
9) Trumbo (9)
10) Creed (10)
Hot: The Big Short
Not: Steve Jobs and Brooklyn
Comment: The Big Short solidifies its position in the category. The numbers suggest that the only real threats below the top five are Brooklyn and The Revenant.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
1) Spotlight (1)
2) Inside Out (2)
3) The Hateful Eight (3)
4) Bridge of Spies (4)
5) Ex Machina (5)
6) Straight Outta Compton (8)
7) Sicario (10)
8) Joy (6)
9) Trainwreck (7)
10) Youth (9)
Hot: Compton and Sicario
Not: Joy and Trainwreck
Comment: Like Adapted Screenplays, the top ten remained consistent but there was good deal of jostling below the top five.
BEST FILM EDITING
1) Mad Max: Fury Road (3)chances.
2) Spotlight (2)
3) The Martian (6)
4) The Big Short (NR)
5) The Revenant (1)
6) Bridge of Spies (4)
7) Star Wars; The Force Awakens (NR)
8) Steve Jobs (5)
9) Sicario (8)
10) Creed (NR)
Hot: Mad Max: Fury Road, The Martian, Star Wars: The Force Awakens, The Big Short, Creed
Not: Joy, Jurassic World and The Hateful Eight (which all dropped out of the top ten), Bridge of Spies and Steve Jobs.
Comment: Lots of movement here and perhaps more to come as the American Cinema Editors guild nominations dropped Tuesday and did not include Spotlight. That could mean to Oscar nomination for the Tom McCarthy film in that category and that is very often a crucial indicator of a film's Best Picture chances. Sicario may be the most likely film to benefit from a Spotlight snub in the editing category.
I'll actually likely run the editing numbers again next week before the nominations are announced on Thursday.
Here's the rundown of "Eddie" nominees from the A.C.E. from The Hollywood Reporter:
http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/behind-screen/2016-ace-eddie-award-nominations-851748
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
1) The Revenant (1)
2) Mad Max: Fury Road (3)
3) Sicario (2)
4) The Hateful Eight (6)
5) Carol (4)
6) The Martian (7)
7) Bridge of Spies (5)
8) The Danish Girl (9)
9) Son of Saul (10)
10) Creed (NR)
Hot: The Hateful Eight, Creed
Not: Bridge of Spies and In the Heart of the Sea
Comment: Yesterday's guild announcement from the American Society of Cinematographers may well indicate that Bridge is better positioned and Hateful weaker than their respective decline and surge would indicate.
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
1) Son of Saul (1)
2) Mustang (3)
3) Labyrinth of Lies (2)
4) A War (NR)
5) Viva (7)
6) Theeb (NR)
7) A New Testament (NR)
8) Embrace of the Serpent (NR)
9) The Fencer (NR)
Comment: Since the last FAC post concerning this category, the release of the Academy's short list has turned the category topsy-turvy. Son of Saul remains the big favorite, although Kristopher Tapley/Variety-InContention reports that "Saul" was one of the films added to semi-final list by the FLF committee rather than by the vote of the branch members which may indicate some serious weakness in its position.
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE:
1) Amy (1)
2) The Look of Silence (2)
3) Cartel Land (10)
4) Going Clear (3)
5) He Named Me Malala (7)
6) Where Are You Miss Simone? (9)
7) Listen to Me Marlon (8)
8) Where to Invade Next (6)
9) Best of Enemies (4)
10) The Hunting Ground (5)
Hot: Cartel Land, Malala, Miss Simone
Not: Where to Invade, Enemies and Hunting Ground
Comment: Really, after the first two docs, the category is still wide open...all the way down to the 11th place film: Winter on Fire.
PRODUCERS GUILD ANNOUNCES NOMINEES
The Producers Guild of America announced its list of nominees this week and Telluride films making the feature film cut included only Spotlight. Carol, Room, Beats of No Nation where all snubbed. Anomalisa was nominated for Best Animated Feature and The Look of Silence added a Best Doc nomination.
Coverage is here:
http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/2016-producers-guild-film-nominations-852228
http://www.thewrap.com/producers-guild-nominates-ex-machina-sicario-and-straight-outta-compton-but-not-star-wars/
That's Thursday...more on Monday included more FAC Oscar updated categories.
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