New Oscar Categories Get The FAC Treatment / Like I Said on Monday...Haneke / Oscar Matters: The Latest Fienberg Forecast

Good Thursday film fans...

Oscar nomination morning is a minuscule two weeks away...the anticipation mounts!

NEW OSCAR CATEGORIES GET THE FAC TREATMENT

As we get closer to the announcement of Oscar nominations, The FAC takes its first look at the animated feature race and a number of technical categories.

For the purpose of The FAC I gather data from the publicly posted predictions of the following:

Erik Anderson/Awards Watch
Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit
Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter
Peter Knegt/Indiewire
Joey Magidson/Hollywood News
Nathaniel Rogers/Film Experience
Sasha Stone/Awards Daily
Kristopher Tapley/Variety-InContention
Anne Thompson/Thompson on Hollywood

TFF #42 films are in Bold.

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

1) Inside Out
2) Anomalisa
3) Shaun the Sheep
4) The Good Dinosaur
5) The Peanuts Movie

6) Kahlil Gibron's The Prophet
7) Minions
8) When Marnie Was There
9) Boy and the World
10) Home

Comment:  "Inside Out" and "Anomalisa" are locks.  It'll be interesting to see if the category goes a to five nominees all of which will be honored to be nominated in a year where "Inside Out" has the Oscar in a death grip.

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

1) The Danish Girl
2) Carol
3) Bridge of Spies
4) Mad Max: Fury Road
5) Star Wars: The Force Awakens

6) Cinderella
7) The Martian
8) Brooklyn
9) The Hateful Eight
10) The Revenant

Comment:  A very, very competitive category.


BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

1) The Hateful Eight
2) Star Wars: The Force Awakens
3) Carol
4) The Danish Girl
5) Bridge of Spies

6) Spotlight
7) Inside Out
8) Steve Jobs
9) Sicario
10) Mad Max: Fury Road

Comment: The films' scores listed in the 4-7 positions are probably in a real fight for the last two spots in the category.


BEST SONG

1) 'Til It Happens to You/The Hunting Ground
2) See You Again/Furious 7
3) Simple Song #3/Youth
4) Love Me Like You Do/50 Shades of Grey
5) Writing's on the Wall/Spectre

6) Earned It/50 Shades of Grey
7) So Long/Concussion
8) Flashlight/Pitch Perfect 2
9) Feels Like Summer/Shaun the Sheep
10) I'll See You in My Dreams/I'll See You in My Dreams (tie)
10) Cold One/Rikki and the Flash

Comment: Try on these phrases...Oscar nominees "50 Shades of Grey" and/or "Furious 7".  Looks like it could really happen.  Maybe twice for "50 Shades".


BEST COSTUME DESIGN

1) Carol
2) The Danish Girl
3) Cinderella
4) Brooklyn
5) Mad Max: Fury Road

6) The Hateful Eight
7) The Revenant
8) The Crimson Peak
9) Suffragette
10) Trumbo

Comment: The top four spots seem relatively certain with a big scrum for the fifth nomination.

If The FAC is 100% accurate, Telluride films in these categories will earn fur nominations with another three possibilities.


LIKE I SAID ON MONDAY...HANEKE

Michael Haneke and Isabelle Huppert at Cannes for "Amour" in 2012 (photo from Sipa Press/Rex Shutterstock and The Guardian)

Last Monday's post included a segment entitled "Ten Films that Could Be Telluride Bound".  Included on that list was one film without a title and that was the percolating Michael Haneke project.  Now, almost like magic, within the last couple of days, comes details of the new film including a title: " Happy End".

Considering the timing, I would expect that the completed film would be a likely entrant for Cannes in 2017 and, consequently, TFF #44.  Here is coverage from The Guardian, Film Stage and The Playlist:

http://www.theguardian.com/film/2015/dec/30/michael-haneke-to-reunite-with-isabelle-huppert-for-calais-set-drama

http://thefilmstage.com/news/michael-haneke-reveals-next-film-happy-end-starring-isabelle-huppert-and-jean-louis-trintignant/

http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/michael-haneke-reteams-with-amour-duo-isabelle-huppert-jean-louis-trintignant-for-refugee-film-happy-end-20151230



OSCAR MATTERS: LATEST FEINBERG FORECAST

The Hollywood Reporter's Scott Feinberg has just updated his latest Oscar predictions.  The nominations announcement is now just two weeks away.  You can look at Scott's whole list here:

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/awards/predictions/oscars/2015/academy-awards-122915/

If Feinberg is right, T-ride films are nominated as follows:

"Carol" (7): Best Film, Direction, Actress, Supporting Actress, Costume, Cinematography and Score.
"Spotlight" (6):  Best Film, Direction, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay, Score and Film Editing.
"Room" (4): Best Film, Actress, Adapted Screenplay and Production Design
"Steve Jobs" (3): Best Actor, Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay.

All other films from Telluride would be single nominated films:

"45 Years" Best Actress
"Beasts of No Nation" Best Supporting Actor
"Anomalisa" Best Animated Feature
"Son of Saul" Best Foreign Language Film
"Viva" Best Foreign Language Film
 
And from TFF #41:

"The Look of Silence" Best Documentary
"99 Homes" Best Supporting Actor.


Telluride totals would be 27 nominations (with two of those from TFF 2014).


More to come on Monday...HAPPY NEW YEAR EVERYONE!

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mpgort@gmail.com OR

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Newest Numbers for Supporting and Screenplays from The FAC / Foreign Language Short List / Criticwire Weighs In

Good Monday to Everyone...and Happy Holidays...

NEWEST NUMBERS FROM SUPPORTING AND SCREENPLAYS

Here is the latest update foe the Supporting Acting and Screenplay categories from The FAC.

For the purpose of The FAC I gather data from the publicly posted predictions of the following:

Erik Anderson/Awards Watch
Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit
Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter
Peter Knegt/Indiewire
Joey Magidson/Hollywood News
Nathaniel Rogers/Film Experience
Sasha Stone/Awards Daily
Kristopher Tapley/Variety-InContention
Anne Thompson/Thompson on Hollywood

TFF #42 films are in Bold.

The positions that these possible nominees had in our last look at these categories is indicated in parenthesis.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS



1) Alicia Vikander/The Danish Girl (1)
2) Kate Winslet/Steve Jobs (3)
3) Rooney Mara/Carol (2)
4) Jennifer Jason Leigh/The Hateful Eight (5)
5) Rachel McAdams/Spotlight (7)

6) Helen Mirren/Trumbo (NR)
7) Jane Fonda/Youth (4)
8) Elizabeth Banks/Love and Mercy (6)
9) Kristen Stewart/Clouds of Sils Maria (NR)
10) Alicia Vikander/Ex Machina (NR)

Hot: McAdams, Mirren, Stewart and Vikander for "Ex Machina"
Not: Fonda, Banks, Allen, Walters and Chastain.

Comment: Another category that has been turned upside down over the past three weeks despite the pundits claims that precursors and critics groups don't move the Oscar needle... they sure have changed the experts perceptions.  Mirren is the perfect example as she has never been in the top ten of the FAC and suddenly appears at #6 in the latest number crunching.  That's NOT because the Oscar predictors have changed their minds about the quality of her performance.  It's because she's popped up over the last couple of weeks with a SAG nomination and a Golden Globe nomination.

Meanwhile, Joan Allen (Room), Julie Walters (Brooklyn) and Jessica Chastain (The Martian) disappear from the top ten.


BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR


1) Mark Rylance/Bridge of Spies (3)
2) Sylvester Stallone/Creed (8)
3) Idris Elba/Beasts of No Nation (9)
4) Michael Shannon/99 Homes (NR)
5) Jacob Tremblay/Room (5)

6) Michael Keaton/Spotlight (2)
7) Paul Dano/Love and Mercy (6)
8) Mark Ruffalo/Spotlight (1)
9) Christian Bale/The Big Short (NR)
10) Tom Hardy/The Revenant (4)

Hot: Rylance, Stallone, Elba, Shannon and Bale
Not: Keaton, Ruffalo, Hardy, Del Toro and Keitel

Comment: Another category that illustrates in stark terms how volatile the season is and how little confidence the experts have in their grasp of the season.  When you have ten people listed in the "Hot/Not" list above, that tells you every thing you need to know about the categories fluidity.  Fully four of the five men that are now listed as the top five (and your presumptive nominees) were NOT in the top five on our last FAC check of the category.

Open Roads' play to have the entire "Spotlight" cast as "Supporting" players may have hurt both Keaton and Ruffalo who had seemed likely to both get a nomination up until the last couple of weeks. Now, neither man may get in and, ironically, Rachel McAdams, who has been regarded as the biggest stretch to be nominated from the cast might now be the film's best shot at an acting nomination.


BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1) Room (2)
2) Steve Jobs (1)
3) The Martian (4)
4) Brooklyn (3)
5) The Big Short (8)

6) Carol (7)
7) Anomalisa (6)
8) The Revenant (5)
9) Trumbo (NR)
10) Creed (NR)

Hot: The Big Short, Trumbo, Creed
Not: The Revenant, The Danish Girl, 45 Years

Comment:  The resilience of "Jobs" here and in the Best Actor and Supporting Actress categories continues to impress me.  "Jobs" also sits at #11 on last Thursday's FAC Best Picture list.  I'm still thinking it could be a wild card Best Pic nominee...

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1) Spotlight (1)
2) Inside Out (2)
3) The Hateful Eight (3)
4) Bridge of Spies (4)
5) Ex Machina (NR)

6) Joy (5)
7) Trainwreck (10)
8) Straight Outta Compton (NR)
9) Youth (6)
10) Sicario (7)

Hot: Ex Machina, Trainwreck, Compton
Not: Youth, Sicario, Love and Mercy and Son of Saul

Comment: My desire that "Son of Saul" get into the Best Picture conversation isn't helped as it drops out of the original screenplay top ten.


FOREIGN FILMS SHORT LIST

The Academy has winnowed all of the Best Foreign Language Film entrants down to nine films.  Two of those films played at TFF #42:  "Son of Saul" and "Viva" made the cut.  "Rams", which was thought to have a strong chance at being a semi-finalist.  It also played as a part of the TFF #42 lineup.

The complete list of films still alive for the Foreign Language Oscar:

"The Brand New Testament"/Belgium
""Embrace of the Serpent"/Colombia
"A War"/Denmark
"The Fencer"/Finland
"Mustang"/France
"Labyrinth of Lies"/Germany
"Son of Saul"/Hungary
"Viva"/Ireland
"Theeb"/Jordan

Coverage:


http://awardswatch.com/news/mustang-son-of-saul-the-fencer-make-foreign-language-film-oscar-shortlist/


CRITICWIRE WEIGHS IN

Criticwire/Indiewire published their collection of rankings of 200+ critics this week.  Telluride films ended up as follows on their list of the 50 best films of 2015:

#2 "Carol"
#3 "Spotlight"
#7 "Anomalisa"
#9 "The Look of Silence" (TFF #41)
#10 "Son of Saul"
#14 "45 Years"
#15 "Room"
#21 "Taxi"
#30 "Steve Jobs"
#35 "Heart of a Dog"





Find complete coverage and analysis and other lists for direction and performances here:

http://www.indiewire.com/article/critics-pick-the-best-films-and-performances-of-2015-in-indiewires-annual-poll-20151214



Contact me at:

michael_speech@hotmail.com OR

mpgort@gmail.com OR

via Twitter @Gort2 OR to


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Golden Globes Nominations Announced / SAG Nominations andTelluride /The Pre-Globes and SAG Gurus of Gold

, Good Thursday everyone...


GOLDEN GLOBES NOMINATIONS ANNOUNCED

Telluride Film Festival Golden Globe nominations:

“Spotlight”: Best Picture (Drama), Best Director/Tom McCarthy, Best Screenplay

“Carol”: Best Picture (Drama), Best Director Todd Haynes, Best Actress (Drama)/Cate Blanchett, Best Actress (Drama) Rooney Mara, Best Score

“Room”: Best Picture (Drama), Best Actress (Drama)/Brie Larson, Best Screenplay

“Steve Jobs”: Best Actor (Drama)/Michael Fassbender, Best Screenplay, Best Supporting Actress/Kate Winslet, Best Score

“Beasts of No Nation”: Best Supporting Actor/Idris Elba,

“99 Homes” (TFF #41): Best Supporting Actor/Michael Shannon

“Anomalisa”: Best Animated Film

"Son of Saul": Best Foreign Film

Complete coverage here:

http://www.latimes.com/entertainment/envelope/la-et-mn-golden-globes-2016-nominees-winners-list-story

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/arts-and-entertainment/wp/2015/12/10/golden-globes-nominations-2016-complete-coverage/

 Big surprises included no acting nominations for any of the ensemble of "Spotlight" and the placement of Rooney Mara in the lead drama actress category.  Though that category placement is becoming less and less shocking.

SCREEN ACTORS GUILD NOMINATIONS AND TELLURIDE

The Screen Actors Guild announced their nominees for acting excellence yesterday and there were some surprises in the mix.  For Telluride fans it was a good morning as TFF films pulled down 12 of the 25 nominations.  Here's the breakdown from those nominations:

Telluride and The SAG nominations:

Best Actor: Johnny Depp/”Black Mass”, Michael Fassbender/”Steve Jobs”

Best Actress: Cate Blanchett/”Carol”, Brie Larson/”Room”

Best Supporting Actor: Jacob Tremblay/”Room”, Idris Elba/”Beasts of No Nation”, Michael Shannon/”99 Homes” (TFF #41)

Best Supporting Actress: Rooney Mara/”Carol”, Kate Winslet/”Steve Jobs”, Rachel McAdams/”Spotlight”

Best Ensemble: “Beasts of No Nation”, “Spotlight”,

Maybe the biggest surprises as far as Telluride went were the Jacob Tremblay nomination for "Room" and the Best Ensemble nomination for Cary Fukunaga's "Beasts of No Nation".

"Trumbo" lead the field with three nominations (Cranston/Best Actor, Mirren/Supporting Actress and Ensemble).

Complete lists of nominees and analysis is here:

http://variety.com/2015/film/news/sag-award-nominations-2016-screen-actors-guild-2-1201657179/

http://www.ew.com/article/2015/12/09/sag-awards-2016-nominees

http://blogs.indiewire.com/thompsononhollywood/sag-awards-nominations-full-list-20151209

http://www.awardsdaily.com/2015/12/09/sifting-through-the-wreckage-of-da-fuq-sag-award-nominations/

NEW PRE-SAG/GLOBES GURUS 

Movie City News was up yesterday with the latest Gurus of Gold poll just before the nomination announcements from The Golden Globes and The Screen Actors Guild.  The Gurus updated the six biggest categories.

Here's where Telluride films are in the latest Gurus poll:

Best Picture: "Spotlight" #1, "Carol" #4, "Room" #6, "Steve Jobs" #11.

Best Direction: Tom McCarthy/"Spotlight" #2, Todd Haynes/"Carol" #3, Lenny Abrahamson/"Room" #7.

Best Actress: Brie Larson/"Room" #1, Cate Blanchett/"Carol" #3, Charlotte Rampling/"45 Years"/#4, Carey Mulligan/"Suffragette" #6, Rooney Mara/"Carol" #8.

Best Actor: Michael Fassbender/"Steve Jobs" #3, Johnny Depp/"Black Mass #5.

Best Supporting Actress: Rooney Mara/"Carol" #1, Kate Winslet/"Steve Jobs" #3.

Best Supporting Actor: Michael Keaton/"Spotlight" #1, Mark Ruffalo/"Spotlight" #3, Idris Elba/"Beasts of No Nation" #5, Jacob Tremblay/"Room" #8.

The complete new Gurus of Gold chart is here:

http://moviecitynews.com/2015/12/gurus-o-gold-its-getting-hot-in-here/

Contact me at:

michael_speech@hotmail.com OR

mpgort@gmail.com OR

via Twitter @Gort2 OR to

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News from Los Angeles, Boston and New York / Director's from TFF #42 / Charlotte Rampling Up Close

Good Monday everyone...


NEWS FROM LOS ANGELES, BOSTON AND NEW YORK

Critics groups from L.A., Beantown and The Big Apple all weighed in on Sunday with their superlatives for the 2015 motion picture season.  Of the three groups, the most notable is the Los Angeles Film Critics Association.  The Boston Society of Film Critics and The New York Film Critics Online also passed judgement yesterday.  I include their assessments here as well, thought they probably don't carry the same gravitas as the LAFCA (or the New York Film Critics Circle or the National Board of Review which named their "Best Of" earlier this week.

Here's how TFF #42 films fared for each critic's group.

L.A.F.C.A...

"Spotlight" Best Picture, Best Screenplay
"Son of Saul": Best Foreign Film, Geza Rorhig; Best Actor Runner Up
"45 Years": Charlotte Rampling: Best Actress
"Carol": Todd Haynes: Best Director Runner Up, Best Production Design Runner Up, Best Musical Score, Best Cinematography Runner Up
"Anomalisa": Best Animation, Best Screenplay Runner Up, Best Musical Score
"Steve Jobs": Michael Fassbender: Best Actor
"The Look of Silence" (TFF #41) Best Documentary Runner Up
"99 Homes" (TFF #41) Michael Shannon: Best Supporting Actor

Complete L.A. critics' analysis is here:
http://www.lafca.net/years/2015.html


http://variety.com/2015/film/in-contention/los-angeles-film-critics-association-winners-in-progress-1201655037/

http://blogs.indiewire.com/thompsononhollywood/los-angeles-film-critics-vote-updated-20151206

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/spotlight-named-best-picture-by-846239

http://www.awardscircuit.com/2015/12/06/99986/


NYFCO...

"Spotlight": Best Ensemble Cast, Best Screenplay, Best Direction, Best Picture
"Son of Saul" Foreign Language Picture
"Carol" Rooney Mara: Best Supporting Actress
"Room": Brie Larson: Best Actress

Analysis:

http://variety.com/2015/film/news/new-york-film-critics-online-winners-list-spotlight-1201655190/

http://moviecitynews.com/2015/12/new-york-online-film-critics-also-shine-spotlight/

http://www.thewrap.com/spotlight-named-best-picture-by-new-york-film-critics-online/


BSFC...

"Spotlight": Best Picture, Tom McCarthy; Best Direction Runner Up, Best Screenplay, Best Editing Runner Up, Best Ensemble Cast
"Carol" Todd Haynes: Best Direction, Best Screenplay Runner Up, Best Cinematography
"45 Years" Charlotte Rampling: Best Actress
"Anomalisa" Best Animated Film
"The Look of Silence" (TFF #$1) Best Documentary Runner Up, Best Foreign Film

Analysis:

http://variety.com/2015/film/in-contention/spotlight-named-best-film-of-2015-by-boston-society-of-film-critics-1201655050/

http://blogs.indiewire.com/criticwire/boston-society-of-film-critics-awards-2015-20151206

http://awardswatch.com/news/boston-society-of-film-critics-winners-spotlight-is-best-pic-kristen-stewart-wins-again/



DIRECTORS FROM TFF #42

Ongoing interviews included here from various sources with directors whose work was screened at the 42nd Telluride Film Festival"

Danny Boyle/"Steve Jobs" from The Wrap:

http://www.thewrap.com/steve-jobs-director-danny-boyle-talks-about-his-action-movie-with-words/


Kent Jones/"Hitchcock/Truffaut" from The Film Stage:

http://thefilmstage.com/features/kent-jones-talks-hitchcocktruffaut-finding-the-right-people-shaping-a-documentary-more/



Laszlo Nemes/"Son of Saul" from The Film Stage:

http://thefilmstage.com/news/watch-interviews-with-the-son-of-saul-team-as-laszlo-nemes-prepares-new-feature-sunset/



CHARLOTTE RAMPLING UP CLOSE:

Anne Thompson/Thompson on Hollywood profiles the Berlin Best Actress winner and Oscar candidate:

http://blogs.indiewire.com/thompsononhollywood/icon-of-cool-charlotte-rampling-talks-45-years-sculpting-her-acting-muscles-and-working-with-woody-allen-20151201


Contact me at:

michael_speech@hotmail.com OR

mpgort@gmail.com OR

via Twitter @Gort2 OR to

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The FAC: Supporting Players and Screenplays / The Independent Spirit Nominations and Telluride

Good Thanksgiving Day to everyone and thanks for reading...


THE FAC: SUPPORTING PLAYERS AND SCREENPLAYS

I ran the last FAC analysis of the Supporting Acting  and Screenplay categories on Oct. 26th so here;s the latest status for those categories.

For the purpose of The FAC I gather data from the publicly posted predictions of the following:

Erik Anderson/Awards Watch
Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit
Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter
Peter Knegt/Indiewire
Joey Magidson/Hollywood News
Nathaniel Rogers/Film Experience
Sasha Stone/Awards Daily
Kristopher Tapley/Variety-InContention
Anne Thompson/Thompson on Hollywood

TFF #42 films are in Bold.

The positions that these possible nominees had in our last look at these categories is indicated in parenthesis.

SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1) Alicia Vikander/The Danish Girl (1)
2) Rooney Mara/Carol (2)
3) Kate Winslet/Steve Jobs (3)
4) Jane Fonda/Youth (5)
5) Jennifer Jason Leigh/The Hateful Eight (4)

6) Elizabeth Banks/Love and Mercy (7)
7) Rachel McAdams/Spotlight (6)
8) Joan Allen/Room (8)
9) Julie Walters/Brooklyn (9)
10) Jessica Chastain/The Martian (NR)

Hot: Chastain
Not: Kristen Stewart/Clouds of Sils Maria
Comment: Chastain's jump onto the list might signal the strength of "The Martian" while the resilience of Vikander suggests that my theory that "Danish Girl" is weak may be compeltely off. Additionally, Winslet stays steady, so "Steve Jobs" may not be as weak as a lot of people have been thinking.  Finally, Rooney Mara's Indie Spirit nomination in the lead category might signal that she could move out of this category come Oscar nomination morning.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1) Mark Ruffalo/Spotlight (3)
2) Michael Keaton/Spotlight (1)
3) Mark Rylance/Bridge of Spies (4)
4) Tom Hardy/The Revenant (2)
5) Jacob Tremblay/Room (6)

6) Paul Dano/Love and Mercy
7) Bencio Del Toro/Sicario (8)
8) Sylvester Stallone/Creed (NR)
9) Idris Elba/Beasts of No Nation (5)
10) Harvey Keitel/Youth (10)

Hot: Ruffalo and Stallone
Not: Hardy, Elba and Joel Edgerton/Black Mass-who dropped off the top ten.
Comment:  The big story here is there serious emergence of Stallone as a player in the category.  As I write this on Thanksgiving morning, "Creed" is reportedly opened to banging box office and the reviews have been good.  Lookout for Stallone!

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1) Steve Jobs (1)
2) Room (3)
3) Brooklyn (2)
4) The Martian (7)
5) The Revenant (4)

6) Anomalisa (6)
7) Carol (5)
8) The Big Short (9)
9) The Danish Girl (8)
10) 45 Years (NR)

Hot: "The Martian" and "45 Years"
Not: "Carol" and "Beats of No Nation"
Comment: "Beasts falls out of the top ten.  It'll be interesting to see if it gets a boost from its Indy Spirit nominations (see below)


BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1) Spotlight (1)
2) Inside Out (2)
3) The Hateful Eight (4)
4) Bridge of Spies (5)
5) Joy (3)

6) Youth (6)
7) Sicario (7)
8) Love and Mercy (9)
9) Son of Saul (8)
10) Trainwreck (NR)

Hot: "Trainwreck"
Not: "Joy" and "Suffragette" which drops way off the top ten list.
Comment:"Spotlight" in this category is the only leader in any of the dozen categories that The FAC has looked at over these past three months since Telluride concluded to hit a perfect score.


If The FAC is 100% accurate, TFF #42 films would earn seven nominations in these four categories and have the potential for another seven.


INDEPENDENT SPIRIT AWARDS

The Independent Spirit Awards nominations were announced earlier this week and Telluride was very well represented. Telluride films that scored nominations were:

"Carol" (6 nominations, the most of any film): Best Feature, Director, Screenplay, Best Lead Actress for both Cate Blanchett and Rooney Mara, and Cinematography.

"Beasts of No Nation (5): Best Feature, Director, Lead Actor (Abraham Attah),  Supporting Actor (Elba) and Cinematography.

"Spotlight" (4 plus a special honor): Best Feature, Director, Screenplay and Editing.  "Spotlight" will also receive the Robert Altman Award for Ensemble Acting.

Anomalisa (4): Best Feature, Director, Screenplay and Supporting Actress (Jennifer Jason Leigh).

"Room" (3): Best Lead Female (Larson), First Screenplay and Editing.

"Heart of a Dog" was nominated for Best Documentary.

"Son of Saul" was nominated as Best International Film.

Michael Shannon picked up a Best Supporting Actor nomination for TFF #41 film "99 Homes".   TFF #41 was also represented by a Best Documentary nomination for Joshua Oppenheimer's "The Look of Silence".

The complete list of nominations and analysis can be found via these links to Variety, Awards Daily, Indiewire and Thompson on Hollywood:

http://variety.com/2015/film/news/spirit-awards-nominees-2016-carol-1201647728/

http://www.awardsdaily.com/2015/11/24/unpacking-the-spirit-award-nominations-what-they-might-mean-for-the-oscar-race/

http://www.indiewire.com/article/carol-spotlight-and-beasts-of-no-nation-lead-31st-film-independent-spirit-awards-nominees-20151124

http://blogs.indiewire.com/thompsononhollywood/what-the-indie-spirit-nominations-tell-us-about-the-oscars-20151124



That's do for Turkey Day!  More to come on Monday.  Have a safe, happy and healthy Thanksgiving weekend...

The Final Fifteen/150,000/IndieWire's 19 Films/Trash Trailer/Parenthetically: Birdman/Looks at 99 Homes and Look of Silence

Good morning from Salida, CO.  We're on the road and two-thirds of the way to Telluride.  Very exciting indeed.  We have lunch and dinner plans today with our hosts and then good friends.  I also expect to run into some of the acquaintances that we've made over the last 8 years we've been attending.  Looking forward to these next five days.


THE FINAL FIFTEEN

Here's the last installment of what has been the "Ten Bets" list throughout the summer.  I posted the first "Ten Bets" for 2014 on June 27th and here's what that initial list looked like:

10) Salt of the Earth (Wenders)
9) Winter Sleep (Ceylan)
8) Red Army (Polsky)
7) Coming Home (Yimou)
6) Foxcatcher (Miller)
5) The Roosevelts (Burns)
4) Leviathan (Zvyagintsev)
3) Birdman (Inarritu)
2) Two Days, One Night (Dardennes)
1) Mr. Turner (Leigh)

If my current list is right, it means that the original "Ten Bets" will have had seven correct films.  We'll see...

Last week's "Ten (Plus) Bets"

15) Mommy
14) '71
13) 99 Homes
12) Red Army
11) Merchants of Doubt
10) The Look of Silence
9) Leviathan
8) Two Days, One Night
7) Rosewater
6) Wild Tales
5) Foxcatcher
4) Wild
3) The Imitation Game
2) Birdman
1) Mr. Turner

Here's the "Final Fifteen":

15) The Homesman
14) Red Army
13) '71
12) 99 Homes
11) The Look of Silence
10) Merchants of Doubt
9) Rosewater
8) Two Days, One Night
7) Wild Tales
6) Wild
5) Leviathan
4) Foxcatcher
3) The Imitation Game
2) Birdman
1) Mr. Turner

Additionally, I'm hoping for "Slow West", "A Most Violent Year" to magically appear on the schedule as well and am slightly optimistic that Sundance hit "Whiplash" might actually make the lineup as well.  Finally, I'm pretty sure there's a surprise or two left to be unveiled.

As you might expect, if this lineup is remotely accurate, there will be too much to get to in four days.  Prioritize!


150,000

Michael's Telluride Film Blog rolled over its 150,000th view yesterday.  Thanks for reading.


INDIEWIRE'S 19 FILMS

IndieWire posted its choice of 19 films with, as they put it, "the most awards potential".  On that list five films from the above "Final Fifteen" list:

"Birdman"
"Foxcatcher"
"Mr. Turner"
"The Imitation Game" and
"Wild"

Also on the list is "Whiplash"...see my note above...

And I'm going to venture a guess that at least one more film on their list of 19 makes the Telluride lineup.

Here's the link:

http://www.indiewire.com/article/the-indiewire-2014-fall-preview-the-20-films-with-the-most-awards-potential-20140826



TRASH TRAILER...NOT TRAILER TRASH

Rooney Mara in "Trash" (The Playlist)

The Playlist dropped a trailer for Stephen Daldry film "Trash".  There's still a chance that the film pops up at Telluride this weekend.  Daldry's track record is impressive indeed.  Check the story and trailer at The Playlist here:

http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/watch-new-trailer-for-trash-starring-rooney-mara-starts-a-revolution-20140827


PARENTHEICALLY...BIRDMAN

Michael Keaton and Edward Norton in "Birdman" (The Playlist)

I have still not read a complete review from Venice about Inarritu's "Birdman" but...the Twitter reactions and summaries alone over the last 24 hours have me even more excited, should we see it in Telluride, than I already was...and I was already counting it on my list of the five films I'd have to see this weekend.


LOOKS AT "99 HOMES" AND "THE LOOK OF SILENCE" FROM THE PLAYLIST

Andrew Garfield and Michael Shannon in "99 Homes" (Entertainment Weekly)

The Playlist posted a number of items yesterday related to films that very well might play at Telluride this weekend.  I have linked material specifically to Joshua Oppenheimer's documentary sequel to his "The Act of Killing", "The Look of Silence".  Also, there's an article about Ramin Bahrani's "99 Homes".  The links are here:

http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/watch-first-clip-from-joshua-oppenheimers-venice-premiering-doc-the-look-of-silence-20140827

http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/watch-andrew-garfield-gets-the-house-back-in-first-clip-from-ramin-bahranis-99-homes-20140827


More tomorrow including the official list of films for the 41st Telluride Film Festival!

Finally, last quick note: Congratulations to Brad Pitt and Angelina Jolie who appear to have gotten married Saturday.  Honeymoon in Telluride?

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/brad-pitt-angelina-jolie-are-728810

Follow me on Twitter @Gort2

New for Saturday: The Playlist's 20 Fall Film List/ScreenTalk with Thompson and Kohn/Best of the Week: Ten Bets #9; Toronto; Leviathan; Variety; Rosewater

Welcome to the last weekend before TFF #41 takes flight.  We leave on Wednesday afternoon and cover about two thirds of the distance and then will finish on Thursday morning.  Planning to be in Telluride around noon in time to lunch with our generous hosts Mitzi and Larry Mallard.  Then pre-fest errands, and dinner with fest friends.  Can't wait.


NEW FOR SATURDAY


THE PLAYLIST'S 20 FALL FILM LIST

The Playlist has posted the 20 films that they're looking forward to for this fall.  The list includes seven films that seem like relatively good Telluride possibilities: "Birdman", "Rosewater", "Foxcatcher", "The Imitation Game", "Wild", "Mr. Turner" and "Leviathan".  See the entire post and list of 20 films here:

http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/fall-film-preview-20-of-our-most-anticipated-films-20140821


SCREENTALK WITH THOMPSON AND KOHN

Anne Thompson (Thompson on Hollywood) and Eric Kohn (IndieWire) posted their latest episode of Screen Talk yesterday and it's almost exclusively Telluride-oriented.  The two (who will be rating films at T-ride for MTFB) mention eleven films that they feel are likely Telluride-bound.  (and three that aren't).

The films they name in order are:
"Wild"
"Rosewater"
"The Imitation Game"
"The Homesman"
"Leviathan"
"Whiplash"
"Mr. Turner"
"Foxcatcher"
"Wild Tales"
"99 Homes"
"Birdman"

Two notes...I've been back and forth on whether "The Homesman" will actually play...they seem to think it will.  Also, yet here's yet another suggestion that Sundance hit (and Cannes film as well) "Whiplash" plays TFF #41.  Interesting.

Check out the nearly 18 min. podcast here:

http://blogs.indiewire.com/thompsononhollywood/screen-talk-telluride-film-festival-predictions-and-preview-20140822

Anne and Eric say their next cast will be from Telluride as the fest is going...so look for that too.

BEST OF THE WEEK


TEN BETS #9

Last week's "Ten Bets" was actually 15...here that list is:

15) The Homesman
14) Life May Be
13) Merchants of Doubt
12) 99 Homes
11) Red Army
10) Two Days, One Night
9) The Look of Silence
8) Rosewater
7) Wild Tales
6) Leviathan
5) Wild
4) The Imitation Game
3) Birdman
2) Mr. Turner
1) Foxcatcher

This week...the "Ten Bets" look like this:

15) Mommy
14) '71
13) 99 Homes
12) Red Army
11) Merchants of Doubt
10) The Look of Silence
9) Leviathan
8) Two Days, One Night
7) Rosewater
6) Wild Tales
5) Foxcatcher
4) Wild
3) The Imitation Game
2) Birdman
1) Mr. Turner

NEW TORONTO TITLES


The Toronto International Film Festival announced its final titles this yesterday and there, again, are conclusions that we can reach.  We can't guarantee that these conclusions are 100% correct but we're probably pretty close.  Takeaways:

The announcement of " '71" and "The New York Review of Books: The 50 Year Argument" as Canadian Premieres is a good indication that both of those titles are headed to Telluride.  We've been thinking that was probably the case the last couple of weeks.  I'm particularly excited about " '71" which has a trailer that was associated with its play at the Berlin Film Fest back in February.  Here's that trailer:

" '71" trailer via YouTube

Here's the story that The Playlist ran yesterday with the release of the trailer:

http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/watch-first-trailer-for-berlin-sensation-71-led-by-rising-star-jack-oconnell-20140819

We also found that three films that we had continued to think might be Telluride possibilities will NOT be as they are either World or North American premieres.  As reported earlier, "St. Vincent" starring Bill Murray is a World premiere and so will not be in T-ride.  TIFF has announced that Sept. 5th will be Bill Murray Day.

Announced as North American premieres were the Cannes Palme d'Or winner "Winter Sleep" and another Cannes standout, "The Tribe".  That means neither of those will play in the San Juans.  Too bad, especially about "The Tribe" which I have been really intrigued by.

Finally, four titles were announced as International premieres that we may need to consider for Telluride. There is limited screening history information about each of the four which, at least at the moment, leaves them as theoretical Telluride possibilities.

The most intriguing is the filmed version of Julie Taymor's stage production of Shakespeare's "A Midsummer Night's Dream".

Also in play: "Life in a Fishbowl", "The Little Death" and "Senza Nessuna Pieta".

Here's the Variety report on yesterday's Toronto announcement:

http://variety.com/2014/film/news/toronto-film-festival-completes-lineup-1201285802/

TALE OF TORONTO AND LEVIATHAN PART TWO

Over the weekend, I mentioned that a reader had alertly noticed that the TIFF website had listed "Leviathan" as a North American premiere and was asking if that meant no Telluride play.  It was a reasonable question. I did some research and source work and couldn't find any explanation for why a film that I was pretty sure had been announced as a Canadian premiere was listed as North American.

I contacted an acquaintance or two that have a way better knowledge of Toronto's workings than I do and they suggested that the "Canadian" designation was probably correct.

Yesterday, I checked back in to the TIFF.net website and someone had changed the designation.  So, suffice to say that "Leviathan" IS a Canadian premiere for Toronto and a very likely film for Telluride.

Check this link to "Leviathan's" TIFF page:

http://www.tiff.net/festivals/thefestival/programmes/masters/leviathan-1


NEW YORK TIMES POST KILLS BIG TITLES FOR TFF

The New York Times put up a lengthy post yesterday that dissected the Telluride/Toronto situation.  In the course of the story, the Times nukes the notion of three major films making their appearance at Telluride:

David  Ayers' "Fury"
Angelina Jolie's "Unbroken" and
Christopher Nolan's "Interstellar"

The Times story says that the three films are, "sitting out the season's opening festivals, according to people briefed on the films, who spoke on condition of anonymity because of confidentiality rules."

The Times says the reasons range from not being ready to differing marketing and awards season strategies.

Makes me sad to mark them off the prospective list though "Fury" was really gone already and I was always dubious about "Interstellar".

That leaves "Big Eyes" and "Exodus: Gods and Kings" as the biggest fish out there without an announced festival.

Here's the story from the Times:

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/08/20/movies/in-the-race-for-oscars-toronto-puts-up-a-hurdle.html

CHANG AND VARIETY DISSECT TELLURIDE AND TORONTO (AND VENICE TOO)

Variety's Justin Chang was up yesterday with a lengthy piece that goes to great lengths to outline the current skirmish between film festivals.  The article/story/post zinged around the Internet with great velocity so there's a good chance you've already seen it.  If not it's linked here:

http://variety.com/2014/film/news/new-toronto-fest-strategy-puts-telluride-on-the-defensive-in-awards-buzz-films-battle-1201286444

Makes for an interesting read.

NOT SO FAST "FOXCATCHER"

"Foxcatcher" trailer from YouTube and Coming Soon

Jeff Wells at Hollywood Elsewhere was commenting at his site on the same Justin Chang/Variety story reference above.  In a piece called "Close Tabs" he says that he's heard " 'Foxcatcher' wasn't going to Telluride".

Now, that flies in the face of most of what we've been seeing/hearing for a long while.  "Foxcatcher" has been at or near the top of this summer's "Ten Bets" but, remember, this enterprise is still mostly guesswork and deduction...so you never know.

That said, I still feel pretty good about our chances to see the Bennett Miller film next week.  It was just last week that we inferred from a Deadline.com post that it was likely to make the trip to the San Juans.

Still, you can expect that "Foxcatcher" may not be in the #1 spot on tomorrow's "Ten Bets".

Here's the complete Jeff Wells story:

http://www.hollywood-elsewhere.com/2014/08/53721/


NEW PICS OF STEWART'S "ROSEWATER"

Director Jon Stewart on the set of "Rosewater" via The Playlist

A much anticipated potential Telluride title is this directorial debut from comedian and Daily Show host Jon Stewart.  "Rosewater" tells the true story of Iranian journalist Maziar Bahari and his detention in Iran in 2009. The Playlist had a couple of new photos from the film yesterday.  I have reposted them above and below.

Stewart also reveals that he picked the brains of Ron Howard and J.J. Abrams in his preparation for the film. Check The Playlist story here:

http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/new-pics-from-rosewater-jon-stewart-says-he-got-input-on-the-script-from-jj-abrams-and-ron-howard-20140820

More on Monday...have a great weekend!

Follow me on Twitter @Gort2