Updates on Oscar from The FAC: Screenplays and More / Producers Guild Nominations Announced

Good Thursday morning...Oscar nomination voting ends tomorrow and the nominations will be announced one week from today...buckle your seat belts...it's going to be bumpy ride...


UPDATES ON OSCAR FROM THE FAC: SCREENPLAYS AND MORE

Almost everyone I know in the professional Oscar Pundit Universe has commented repeatedly about the fluidity and unpredictability of the Oscar season to date.  That has not diminished over the past three weeks since I last posted the Screenplay categories.  It has made it a fun season and suggests that we're going to see some surprises a week from today.  Cool.

For the purpose of The FAC I gather data from the publicly posted predictions of the following:

Erik Anderson/Awards Watch
Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit
Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter
Joey Magidson/Hollywood News
Nathaniel Rogers/Film Experience
Sasha Stone/Awards Daily
Kristopher Tapley/Variety-InContention
Anne Thompson/Thompson on Hollywood

You may have noticed the absence of Peter Knegt from Indiewire.  He has left that website and consequently, it appears that Indiewire has doubled up on Anne Thompson's predictions.

The positions that these possible nominees had in our last look at these categories is indicated in parenthesis.

TFF #42 films are in Bold.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1) Room (1)
2) The Big Short (5)
3) The Martian (3)
4) Steve Jobs (2)
5) Carol (6)

6) Brooklyn (4)
7) Anomalisa (7)
8) The Revenant (8)
9) Trumbo (9)
10) Creed (10)

Hot: The Big Short
Not: Steve Jobs and Brooklyn

Comment: The Big Short solidifies its position in the category.  The numbers suggest that the only real threats below the top five are Brooklyn and The Revenant.


BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1) Spotlight (1)
2) Inside Out (2)
3) The Hateful Eight (3)
4) Bridge of Spies (4)
5) Ex Machina (5)

6) Straight Outta Compton (8)
7) Sicario (10)
8) Joy (6)
9) Trainwreck (7)
10) Youth (9)

Hot: Compton and Sicario
Not: Joy and Trainwreck

Comment:  Like Adapted Screenplays, the top ten remained consistent but there was good deal of jostling below the top five.


BEST FILM EDITING

1) Mad Max: Fury Road (3)chances.
2) Spotlight (2)
3) The Martian (6)
4) The Big Short (NR)
5) The Revenant (1)

6) Bridge of Spies (4)
7) Star Wars; The Force Awakens (NR)
8) Steve Jobs (5)
9) Sicario (8)
10) Creed (NR)

Hot: Mad Max: Fury Road, The Martian, Star Wars: The Force Awakens, The Big Short, Creed
Not: Joy, Jurassic World and The Hateful Eight (which all dropped out of the top ten), Bridge of Spies and Steve Jobs.

Comment:  Lots of movement here and perhaps more to come as the American Cinema Editors guild nominations dropped Tuesday and did not include Spotlight.  That could mean to Oscar nomination for the Tom McCarthy film in that category and that is very often a crucial indicator of a film's Best Picture chances.  Sicario may be the most likely film to benefit from a Spotlight snub in the editing category.

I'll actually likely run the editing numbers again next week before the nominations are announced on Thursday.


Here's the rundown of "Eddie" nominees from the A.C.E. from The Hollywood Reporter:

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/behind-screen/2016-ace-eddie-award-nominations-851748

BEST  CINEMATOGRAPHY

1) The Revenant (1)
2) Mad Max: Fury Road (3)
3) Sicario (2)
4) The Hateful Eight (6)
5) Carol (4)

6) The Martian (7)
7) Bridge of Spies (5)
8) The Danish Girl (9)
9) Son of Saul (10)
10) Creed (NR)

Hot: The Hateful Eight, Creed
Not: Bridge of Spies and In the Heart of the Sea

Comment:  Yesterday's guild announcement from the American Society of Cinematographers may well indicate that Bridge is better positioned and Hateful weaker than their respective decline and surge would indicate.

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

1) Son of Saul (1)
2) Mustang (3)
3) Labyrinth of Lies (2)
4) A War (NR)
5) Viva (7)

6) Theeb (NR)
7) A New Testament (NR)
8) Embrace of the Serpent (NR)
9) The Fencer (NR)

Comment: Since the last FAC post concerning this category, the release of the Academy's short list has turned the category topsy-turvy.  Son of Saul remains the big favorite, although Kristopher Tapley/Variety-InContention reports that "Saul" was one of the films added to semi-final list by the FLF committee rather than by the vote of the branch members which may indicate some serious weakness in its position.


BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE:

1) Amy (1)
2) The Look of Silence (2)
3) Cartel Land (10)
4) Going Clear (3)
5) He Named Me Malala (7)

6) Where Are You Miss Simone? (9)
7) Listen to Me Marlon (8)
8) Where to Invade Next (6)
9) Best of Enemies (4)
10) The Hunting Ground (5)

Hot: Cartel Land, Malala, Miss Simone
Not: Where to Invade, Enemies and Hunting Ground

Comment: Really, after the first two docs, the category is still wide open...all the way down to the 11th place film: Winter on Fire.



PRODUCERS GUILD ANNOUNCES NOMINEES

The Producers Guild of America announced its list of nominees this week and Telluride films making the feature film cut included only Spotlight.  Carol, Room, Beats of No Nation where all snubbed.  Anomalisa was nominated for Best Animated Feature and The Look of Silence added a Best Doc nomination.

Coverage is here:

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/2016-producers-guild-film-nominations-852228

http://www.thewrap.com/producers-guild-nominates-ex-machina-sicario-and-straight-outta-compton-but-not-star-wars/




That's Thursday...more on Monday included more FAC Oscar updated categories.

 Contact me at:

michael_speech@hotmail.com OR

mpgort@gmail.com OR

via Twitter @Gort2 OR to

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Four More Oscar Tech Categories and The FAC / Sasha and Kris are Saying... / "Spotlight" Wins NSFC

Good First Monday of 2016 Everyone...  back to the grind... real and imagined...


FOUR MORE OSCAR TECH CATEGORIES AND THE FAC

As we edge ever closer to Oscar nomination morning, the Film Awards Clearinghouse takes a look at the positioning of the films in the only categories that I haven't enumerated as yet: Makeup/Hair, Visual Effects, Sound Editing and Sound Mixing.

For the purpose of The FAC I gather data from the publicly posted predictions of the following:

Erik Anderson/Awards Watch
Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit
Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter
Peter Knegt/Indiewire
Joey Magidson/Hollywood News
Nathaniel Rogers/Film Experience
Sasha Stone/Awards Daily
Kristopher Tapley/Variety-InContention
Anne Thompson/Thompson on Hollywood

TFF #42 films are in Bold.

MAKEUP/HAIR

1) Mad Max: Fury Road
2) Black Mass
3) The Revenant

4) Mr. Holmes
5) The 100 Year Old Man...
6) Concussion
7) Legend


Comment:  The only possible Telluride connected nominee from the four categories that the blog examines today as "Black Mass" has a chance to be nominated here.


VISUAL EFFECTS

1) Star Wars; The Force Awakens
2) The Martian
3) Mad Max; Fury Road
4) The Walk
5) Jurassic World

6) Transformers: Age of Ultron
7) Ex Machina
8) The Revenant
9) Ant Man
10) Tomorrowland

Comment;  The top three films look solid for a nomination here.  After them, it's up for grabs for the last two spots.

SOUND MIXING

1) Mad Max: Fury Road
2) Star Wars: The Force Awakens
3) The Martian
4) The Revenant
5) The Hateful Eight

6) Sicario
7) Spectre
8) Jurassic World
9) Straight Outta Compton
10) Creed


SOUND EDITING

1) Mad Max: Fury Road
2) The Martian
3) The Revanant
4) Star Wars: The Force Awakens
5) The Hateful Eight

6) Jurassic World
7) Spectre
8) Inside Out
9) Sicario
10) In the Heart of the Sea

Comment:The top three in Mixing and the top four in Editing seem to be solid.  Oft times a musical film will nose its way into one or both of these categories, especially Mixing.  "Compton" and "Love and Mercy" might sneak in, but even that appears unlikely.


Oscar nomination announcement day is now just 10 days away and as I post the next three MTFB/FACs, I'll update the categories so that we'll have an up to date picture as we arrive at Nomination morning on Jan. 14.


I'll update  these categories on Thursday: Screenplays, Cinematography, Editing, Documentary and Foreign Language Film.



SASHA AND KRIS ARE SAYING...



Last Thursday I looked specifically at the latest Oscar predictions from The Hollywood Reporter's Oscar ace Scott Feinberg to see how Telluride films would pan out if he's 100% correct.  Today I'm posting the same process to Kristopher Tapley of Variety's InContention and Sasha Stone of Awards Daily.  Here are their latest picks for each T-ride film:

From Tapley:

"Spotlight" (7): Best Picture, Direction, Supporting Actor (Keaton), Supporting Actress (McAdams), Original Screenplay, Editing and Score.

"Carol" (5) Best Actress, Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography and Costumes.

"Steve Jobs" (4) Best Actor, Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay, Score

"Room" (3) Best Picture, Actress, Adapted Screenplay

"Black Mass" (2) Best Actor, Makeup/Hair

Singles for:

"45 Years" Best Actress
"Anomalisa" Best Animated Feature
"Beasts of No Nation" Best Supporting Actor
"Son of Saul" Best Foreign Language Film
"Viva" Best Foreign Language Film
"The Look of Silence" (TFF #41) Best Documentary

T-ride total = 26 for TFF #42 (27 if you count the TFF #41 "Look of Silence")


From Stone:

"Carol" (8) Best Picture, Actress, Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, Production Design, Costumes, Score.

"Spotlight" (5) Best Picture, Director, Original Screenplay, Editing, Score

"Room" (4) Best Picture, Actress, Supporting Actor, Adapted Screenplay

"Steve Jobs" (3) Best Actor, Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay

Singles for:

"Beasts of No Nation" Supporting Actor
"Son of Saul" Best Foreign Language Film
"Viva" Best Foreign Language Film
"He Named Me Malala" Best Documentary
"Anomalisa" Best Animated Feature
"The Look of Silence" Best Documentary (TFF #41)

T-ride total from Stone: 25 (with a 26th if you count TFF #41's "Look of Silence")

Here's the material I blogged about from Feinberg last Thursday:

 If Feinberg is right, T-ride films are nominated as follows:

"Carol" (7): Best Film, Direction, Actress, Supporting Actress, Costume, Cinematography and Score.
"Spotlight" (6):  Best Film, Direction, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay, Score and Film Editing.
"Room" (4): Best Film, Actress, Adapted Screenplay and Production Design
"Steve Jobs" (3): Best Actor, Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay.

All other films from Telluride would be single nominated films:

"45 Years" Best Actress
"Beasts of No Nation" Best Supporting Actor
"Anomalisa" Best Animated Feature
"Son of Saul" Best Foreign Language Film
"Viva" Best Foreign Language Film

And from TFF #41:

"The Look of Silence" Best Documentary
"99 Homes" Best Supporting Actor.


Telluride totals would be 27 nominations (with two of those from TFF 2014).


If you combine all three of these Oscar pundits to look for the maximum Telluride bang for the buck you could see "Carol" with 10 nominations, "Spotlight" with seven (eight, if it gets three acting nominations), "Room" with five, "Steve Jobs" with four, "Black Mass" with two and TFF #41 with an additional six nominations for one offs for "Beasts", "Saul", "Viva", "45 Years", Anomalisa and "Malala" and an additional two nominations dating back to TFF #41 films.



"SPOTLIGHT" WINS NSFC

Tom McCarthy's "Spotlight" was named Best Picture of the year by the National Society of Film Critics yesterday.  Other Telluride-centric films that were winners or runners-up yesterday in the NSFC voting were:

Best Picture 1st RU: "Carol"
Best Director: Todd Haynes/ "Carol", 1st RU: Tom McCarthy/"Spotlight"
Best Actor 1st RU: Geza Rorhig/"Son of Saul", 2nd RU: Tom Courtenay/"45 Years"
Best Actress: Charlotte Rampling/"45 Years"
Best Supporting Actor: Michael Shannon/"99 Homes" (TFF #41)
Best Supporting Actress; 2nd RU Kate Winslet/"Steve Jobs"
Best Screenplay: "Spotlight", 1st RU: "Anomalisa"
Best Cinematography: "Carol"
Best Non-Fiction Film: 2nd RU "Seymour: An Introduction" (TFF #41)

Full coverage f the NSFC results are here:

http://variety.com/2016/film/news/national-society-of-film-critics-awards-2016-full-list-1201670781/

http://blogs.indiewire.com/criticwire/national-society-of-film-critics-awards-2015-20160103

http://blogs.indiewire.com/thompsononhollywood/national-society-of-film-critics-gives-best-picture-to-oscar-frontrunner-spotlight-20160103

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/national-society-film-critics-2016-851756


That's all for Monday.  More updated Oscar categories will be here on Thursday...


  Contact me at:

michael_speech@hotmail.com OR

mpgort@gmail.com OR

via Twitter @Gort2 OR to


Michael's Telluride Film Blog's Facebook page: https://www.facebook.com/pages/Michaels-Telluride-Film-Blog-and-The-Film-Awards-Clearinghouse/107846269309712

New Oscar Categories Get The FAC Treatment / Like I Said on Monday...Haneke / Oscar Matters: The Latest Fienberg Forecast

Good Thursday film fans...

Oscar nomination morning is a minuscule two weeks away...the anticipation mounts!

NEW OSCAR CATEGORIES GET THE FAC TREATMENT

As we get closer to the announcement of Oscar nominations, The FAC takes its first look at the animated feature race and a number of technical categories.

For the purpose of The FAC I gather data from the publicly posted predictions of the following:

Erik Anderson/Awards Watch
Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit
Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter
Peter Knegt/Indiewire
Joey Magidson/Hollywood News
Nathaniel Rogers/Film Experience
Sasha Stone/Awards Daily
Kristopher Tapley/Variety-InContention
Anne Thompson/Thompson on Hollywood

TFF #42 films are in Bold.

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

1) Inside Out
2) Anomalisa
3) Shaun the Sheep
4) The Good Dinosaur
5) The Peanuts Movie

6) Kahlil Gibron's The Prophet
7) Minions
8) When Marnie Was There
9) Boy and the World
10) Home

Comment:  "Inside Out" and "Anomalisa" are locks.  It'll be interesting to see if the category goes a to five nominees all of which will be honored to be nominated in a year where "Inside Out" has the Oscar in a death grip.

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

1) The Danish Girl
2) Carol
3) Bridge of Spies
4) Mad Max: Fury Road
5) Star Wars: The Force Awakens

6) Cinderella
7) The Martian
8) Brooklyn
9) The Hateful Eight
10) The Revenant

Comment:  A very, very competitive category.


BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

1) The Hateful Eight
2) Star Wars: The Force Awakens
3) Carol
4) The Danish Girl
5) Bridge of Spies

6) Spotlight
7) Inside Out
8) Steve Jobs
9) Sicario
10) Mad Max: Fury Road

Comment: The films' scores listed in the 4-7 positions are probably in a real fight for the last two spots in the category.


BEST SONG

1) 'Til It Happens to You/The Hunting Ground
2) See You Again/Furious 7
3) Simple Song #3/Youth
4) Love Me Like You Do/50 Shades of Grey
5) Writing's on the Wall/Spectre

6) Earned It/50 Shades of Grey
7) So Long/Concussion
8) Flashlight/Pitch Perfect 2
9) Feels Like Summer/Shaun the Sheep
10) I'll See You in My Dreams/I'll See You in My Dreams (tie)
10) Cold One/Rikki and the Flash

Comment: Try on these phrases...Oscar nominees "50 Shades of Grey" and/or "Furious 7".  Looks like it could really happen.  Maybe twice for "50 Shades".


BEST COSTUME DESIGN

1) Carol
2) The Danish Girl
3) Cinderella
4) Brooklyn
5) Mad Max: Fury Road

6) The Hateful Eight
7) The Revenant
8) The Crimson Peak
9) Suffragette
10) Trumbo

Comment: The top four spots seem relatively certain with a big scrum for the fifth nomination.

If The FAC is 100% accurate, Telluride films in these categories will earn fur nominations with another three possibilities.


LIKE I SAID ON MONDAY...HANEKE

Michael Haneke and Isabelle Huppert at Cannes for "Amour" in 2012 (photo from Sipa Press/Rex Shutterstock and The Guardian)

Last Monday's post included a segment entitled "Ten Films that Could Be Telluride Bound".  Included on that list was one film without a title and that was the percolating Michael Haneke project.  Now, almost like magic, within the last couple of days, comes details of the new film including a title: " Happy End".

Considering the timing, I would expect that the completed film would be a likely entrant for Cannes in 2017 and, consequently, TFF #44.  Here is coverage from The Guardian, Film Stage and The Playlist:

http://www.theguardian.com/film/2015/dec/30/michael-haneke-to-reunite-with-isabelle-huppert-for-calais-set-drama

http://thefilmstage.com/news/michael-haneke-reveals-next-film-happy-end-starring-isabelle-huppert-and-jean-louis-trintignant/

http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/michael-haneke-reteams-with-amour-duo-isabelle-huppert-jean-louis-trintignant-for-refugee-film-happy-end-20151230



OSCAR MATTERS: LATEST FEINBERG FORECAST

The Hollywood Reporter's Scott Feinberg has just updated his latest Oscar predictions.  The nominations announcement is now just two weeks away.  You can look at Scott's whole list here:

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/awards/predictions/oscars/2015/academy-awards-122915/

If Feinberg is right, T-ride films are nominated as follows:

"Carol" (7): Best Film, Direction, Actress, Supporting Actress, Costume, Cinematography and Score.
"Spotlight" (6):  Best Film, Direction, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay, Score and Film Editing.
"Room" (4): Best Film, Actress, Adapted Screenplay and Production Design
"Steve Jobs" (3): Best Actor, Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay.

All other films from Telluride would be single nominated films:

"45 Years" Best Actress
"Beasts of No Nation" Best Supporting Actor
"Anomalisa" Best Animated Feature
"Son of Saul" Best Foreign Language Film
"Viva" Best Foreign Language Film
 
And from TFF #41:

"The Look of Silence" Best Documentary
"99 Homes" Best Supporting Actor.


Telluride totals would be 27 nominations (with two of those from TFF 2014).


More to come on Monday...HAPPY NEW YEAR EVERYONE!

Contact me at:

michael_speech@hotmail.com OR

mpgort@gmail.com OR

via Twitter @Gort2 OR to


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The Cumulative FAC Recap (at This Point) / Oscar Matters: Podcasting Oscar / Interviews and Profiles: "Carol", "Suffragette", "Son of Saul", "Room", "Steve Jobs" and "Spotlight"

Welcome to Monday and here's hoping that everyone had a safe and joyful Thanksgiving holiday...

THE CUMULATIVE FAC RECAP (AT THIS POINT)

Over the past two weeks or so, I have posted the third update for the "Big Eight" Oscar categories (Picture, Director, Actor, Actress, Supporting Actress and Actor and Adapted and Original Screenplays) as well as four additional categories (Film Editing, Cinematography, Documentary Feature and Foreign Language Film).  I haven't yet tackled the other dozen categories that Oscar will reward in February (Animated Feature, Original Song and Score, Production Design, Costumes, Makeup/Hair, Visual Effects, Sound Mixing and Editing, and the Shorts: Live Action, Animation and Documentary).  Those will come later as we get closer to nomination time (Jan. 14).

As we find ourselves on the cusp of end-of-the-year lists of the best in film making (The National Board of Review announces their top films tomorrow while the New York Film Critics Circle announces on Wednesday, The Los Angeles critics announce this coming weekend), I thought it'd be useful to collect all twelve of the categories that have been posted here in the last two weeks in one post.  So here they are:

For the purpose of The FAC I gather data from the publicly posted predictions of the following:

Erik Anderson/Awards Watch
Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit
Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter
Peter Knegt/Indiewire
Joey Magidson/Hollywood News
Nathaniel Rogers/Film Experience
Sasha Stone/Awards Daily
Kristopher Tapley/Variety-InContention
Anne Thompson/Thompson on Hollywood

TFF #42 films are in Bold.

The positions that these possible nominees had in our last look at these categories is indicated in parenthesis.


BEST PICTURE

"Spotlight" trailer via YouTube

1) Spotlight (1)
2) The Revenant (3)
3) The Martian (12)
4) Room (5)
5) Bridge of Spies (6)
6) Brooklyn (4)
7) Joy (7)
8) Steve Jobs (2)

9) Inside Out (11)
10) Carol (10)
11) The Hateful Eight (9)
12) The Big Short (NR)

Hot: "The Martian", "Inside Out", "The Big Short"
Cold: "Brooklyn", Steve Jobs", "The Hateful Eight" and "The Danish Girl" which dropped off the list entirely.
Comment:  "The Martian" change and the "Steve Jobs" box office debacle have really shaken this race up.  I'm not so sure that "Jobs" is completely out of this as Fassbender still has a lot of Best Actor support (see below).  At this point, I could see any of the top four films taking the big prize...and yes, I'm including "Room" in that assessment.  People really love the film and its strength is reflected in Lenny Abrahamson's climb in the director's race and Brie Larson's support in the Best Actress race.  Remember too, that it won the Toronto audience award and finished in the top spot in my collection of viewers' ratings for The People's Telluride.


BEST DIRECTION

"Room" trailer via YouTube

1) Tom McCarthy/Spotlight (1)
2) Alejandro Inarritu/The Revenant (3)
3) Ridley Scott/The Martian (7)
4) Steven Spielberg/Bridge of Spies (5)
5) Lenny Abrahamson/Room (NR)

6) David O. Russell/Joy (4)
7) George Miller/Mad Max: Fury Road (10)
8) Todd Haynes/Carol (8)
9) Danny Boyle/Steve Jobs (2)
10) Quentin Tarantino/The Hateful Eight (6)

Hot: Scott, Abrahamson and Miller.
Cold: Russell, Boyle and Tom Hooper (Danish Girl)
Comment:Danny Boyle's fall also underscores the drop in prospects for "Steve Jobs" as Abrahamson's ascendance emphasizes the popularity of "Room".  Also, "The Danish Girl" is taking a hit in both Picture and Directing categories.  Eddie Redmayne still seems to be competitive in the Best Actor category (see below).


BEST ACTRESS

"Carol" trailer via YouTube

1) Brie Larson/Room (1)
2) Jennifer Lawrence/Joy (2)
3) Saorise Ronan/Brooklyn (3)
4) Cate Blanchett/Carol (4)
5) Charlotte Rampling/45 Years (6)

6) Carey Mulligan/Suffragette (5)
7) Blythe Danner/I'll See You in My Dreams (10)
8) Lily Tomlin/Grandma (7)
9) Maggie Smith/The Lady in the Van (9)
10) Cate Blanchett/Truth (8)

Hot: Danner
Cold: Blanchett in "Truth"
Comment: A remarkably steady category.  Larson is the closest thing to a lock in any of the four major categories in a year where "locks" have been few and far between.


BEST ACTOR

"Steve Jobs" trailer via YouTube

1) Leonardo DiCaprio/The Revenant (3)
2) Michael Fassbender/Steve Jobs (1)
3) Eddie Redmayne/The Danish Girl (2)
4) Johnny Depp/Black Mass (4)
5) Matt Damon/The Martian (6)

6) Michael Caine/Youth (5)
7) Will Smith/Concussion (8)
8) Tom Hanks/Bridge of Spies (7)
9) Ian McKellen/Mr. Holmes (9)
10) Steve Carell/The Big Short (10)


Hot: DiCaprio
Cold:  No one really.
Comment:  Both Fassbender and Redmayne stay in the thick of the race despite their films having suffered some serious doubts in the Picture and Directing categories.  The same could be said for Johnny Depp.

SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1) Alicia Vikander/The Danish Girl (1)
2) Rooney Mara/Carol (2)
3) Kate Winslet/Steve Jobs (3)
4) Jane Fonda/Youth (5)
5) Jennifer Jason Leigh/The Hateful Eight (4)

6) Elizabeth Banks/Love and Mercy (7)
7) Rachel McAdams/Spotlight (6)
8) Joan Allen/Room (8)
9) Julie Walters/Brooklyn (9)
10) Jessica Chastain/The Martian (NR)

Hot: Chastain
Not: Kristen Stewart/Clouds of Sils Maria
Comment: Chastain's jump onto the list might signal the strength of "The Martian" while the resilience of Vikander suggests that my theory that "Danish Girl" is weak may be completely off. Additionally, Winslet stays steady, so "Steve Jobs" may not be as weak as a lot of people have been thinking.  Finally, Rooney Mara's Indie Spirit nomination in the lead category might signal that she could move out of this category come Oscar nomination morning.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1) Mark Ruffalo/Spotlight (3)
2) Michael Keaton/Spotlight (1)
3) Mark Rylance/Bridge of Spies (4)
4) Tom Hardy/The Revenant (2)
5) Jacob Tremblay/Room (6)

6) Paul Dano/Love and Mercy
7) Bencio Del Toro/Sicario (8)
8) Sylvester Stallone/Creed (NR)
9) Idris Elba/Beasts of No Nation (5)
10) Harvey Keitel/Youth (10)

Hot: Ruffalo and Stallone
Not: Hardy, Elba and Joel Edgerton/Black Mass-who dropped off the top ten.
Comment:  The big story here is there serious emergence of Stallone as a player in the category.  As I write this on Thanksgiving morning, "Creed" is reportedly opened to banging box office and the reviews have been good.  Lookout for Stallone!

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1) Steve Jobs (1)
2) Room (3)
3) Brooklyn (2)
4) The Martian (7)
5) The Revenant (4)

6) Anomalisa (6)
7) Carol (5)
8) The Big Short (9)
9) The Danish Girl (8)
10) 45 Years (NR)

Hot: "The Martian" and "45 Years"
Not: "Carol" and "Beats of No Nation"
Comment: "Beasts falls out of the top ten.  It'll be interesting to see if it gets a boost from its Indy Spirit nominations (see below)


BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1) Spotlight (1)
2) Inside Out (2)
3) The Hateful Eight (4)
4) Bridge of Spies (5)
5) Joy (3)

6) Youth (6)
7) Sicario (7)
8) Love and Mercy (9)
9) Son of Saul (8)
10) Trainwreck (NR)

Hot: "Trainwreck"
Not: "Joy" and "Suffragette" which drops way off the top ten list.
Comment:"Spotlight" in this category is the only leader in any of the dozen categories that The FAC has looked at over these past three months since Telluride concluded to hit a perfect score.


BEST FILM EDITING

1) The Revenant
2) Spotlight
3) Mad Max: Fury Road
4) Bridge of Spies
5) Steve Jobs

6) The Martian
7) Joy
8) Sicario
9) The Hateful Eight
10) Jurassic Park

Comment: The category that has become semi-mythical in terms of its pairing with the eventual Best Picture winner seems to be among the top six films here.  Though, any of these ten could get in.


BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

1) The Revenant
2) Sicario
3) Mad Max; Fury Road
4) Carol
5) Bridge of Spies

6) The Hateful Eight
7) The Martian
8) In the Heart of the Sea
9) The Danish Girl
10) Son of Saul

Comment:  The five nominees probably come from the top seven listed here.

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

1) Son of Saul
2) Labyrinth of Lies
3) Mustang
4) Second Mother
5) The Assassin

6) Rams
7) Viva
8) Goodnight Mommy
9) The Club
10) A Pigeon Sat on a Branch...

Comment:  This category is largely believed to be about narrowing the field down to the four films that eventually lose to "Son of Saul".  In a year where most categories are still fairly unpredictable, "Saul" might be the surest bet for Oscar of any film in any category.


BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

1) Amy
2) The Look of Silence (TFF #41)
3) Going Clear
4) Best of Enemies
5) The Hunting Ground

6) Where Do We Invade Next?
7) He Named Me Malala
8) Listen to Me Marlon
9) Miss Simone
10) Cartel Land


Comment: Reflecting the sense that I got at Telluride this year, there's only one TFF #42 documentary that seems to have a shot this year and "Malala" is playing from behind.  TFF #41's "Look of Silence" looks solid.

If The FAC is 100% on the money, TFF #42 films would earn 22 nominations from these 12 categories with another 15 possibilities.

Since I started doing The FAC, Telluride films average 27 nominations each year.  This year looks like it should end up with about that number of nominations.


OSCAR MATTERS: PODCASTING OSCARS

Here are links to the most popular and influential podcasts that focus on the Oscar Race including Oscar Poker with Sasha Stone ans Jeffrey Wells (Awards Daily and Hollywood Elsewhere), Screen Talk with Anne Thompson and Eric Kohn (Thompson on Hollywood and Indiewire), Awards Chatter with Scott Feinberg (The Hollywood Reporter), Erik Anderson (Awards Watch) and Oscar Predictions Smackdown with Tom O'Neill (Gold Derby) and Sasha Stone as his guest:

http://www.hollywood-elsewhere.com/2015/11/begins-with-anger-ends-with-acceptance/

http://blogs.indiewire.com/thompsononhollywood/screen-talk-spirit-awards-surprises-whither-inarritus-the-revenant-20151125

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/race/awards-chatter-podcast-benicio-del-844097

http://awardswatch.com/podcasts/oscar-podcast-31-nbr-and-nyfcc-predix-plus-the-revenant-and-joy-finally-screen/

http://www.goldderby.com/news/10968/oscar-prediction-revenant-leonardo-dicaprio-leo-danish-girl-618372594.html


OSCAR MATTERS: THE PUNDITS' LATEST

Here's the latest in Oscar prognostications for the best in the business both individually and collectively:

Individuals: Sasha Stone/Awards Daily, Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter, Kristopher Tapley/Variety's InContention:


http://www.awardsdaily.com/2015/11/27/predictions-friday-creed-lands/

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/awards/predictions/oscars/2015/academy-awards-112515/

http://variety.com/2015/film/in-contention/oscar-predictions-oscars-academy-awards-1201600870/

And collectively from The Gurus of Gold and Gold Derby:

http://www.awardsdaily.com/2015/11/27/gurus-goldderby-check-in-thanksgiving-edition/

http://moviecitynews.com/2015/11/gurus-o-gold-14-weeks-to-oscar/

http://moviecitynews.com/2015/11/gurus-o-gold-the-picture-the-men-the-turkey-day-reccomendation/

http://www.goldderby.com/odds/experts/300/



INTERVIEWS AND PROFILES: "CAROL", "SUFFRAGETTE", "SON OF SAUL", "ROOM", "STEVE JOBS" AND "SPOTLIGHT"


"CAROL"

http://www.rollingstone.com/movies/news/cate-blanchett-on-why-carol-is-not-your-average-love-story-20151119

http://www.indiewire.com/article/todd-haynes-explains-the-cinematic-influences-that-impacted-his-carol-20151123

http://www.fandango.com/carol_184244/movieoverview

http://www.indiewire.com/article/watch-rooney-mara-and-cate-blanchett-forbidden-romance-blossoms-in-these-carol-clips-20151123

https://amp.twimg.com/v/c4bb3e9d-0133-4b7f-8c84-0994f96d33a6


'SUFFRAGETTE"

http://www.hitfix.com/the-dartboard/check-out-an-exclusive-featurette-featuring-carey-mulligan-in-suffragette

http://variety.com/video/suffragette-carey-mulligan-watch/

http://www.wearemoviegeeks.com/2015/11/suffragette-star-carey-mulligan-talks-about-film-womens-rights/


'SON OF SAUL"

http://deadline.com/2015/11/son-of-saul-laszlo-nemes-geza-rohrig-the-contenders-video-1201637711/

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/features/how-son-saul-defied-dangers-838149

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/features/how-son-saul-defied-dangers-838149


"ROOM"

http://www.awardscircuit.com/2015/11/16/interview-brie-larson-discusses-emotional-power-room/


"STEVE JOBS"

http://thefilmstage.com/news/criterions-february-line-up-roger-deakins-jonathan-rosenbaum-danny-boyle-talks-and-more/


"SPOTLIGHT"

http://thefilmstage.com/news/watch-extensive-talks-with-the-real-life-journalists-behind-spotlight-and-the-cast/



That'll do for this Monday.  Come back for more Telluride-centric awards coverage on Thursday...


Contact me at:

michael_speech@hotmail.com OR

mpgort@gmail.com OR

via Twitter @Gort2 OR to

Michael's Telluride Film Blog's Facebook page: https://www.facebook.com/pages/Michaels-Telluride-Film-Blog-and-The-Film-Awards-Clearinghouse/107846269309712

The FAC and Other Oscar Categories / Oscar Matters: Pods / Focus On: "Spotlight", "Suffragette" and "Black Mass"

It's Thursday.

THE FAC LOOKS AT SOME OTHER OSCAR CATEGORIES

As we hit the mid-point of November, we're edging ever closer to the releases of a slew of year end critic's Ten Best lists.  December is rife with those and that's just around the corner.  They act as a constant reminder that the race for Oscar is about to get really serious.

Consequently, I thought I'd take the time today to run the numbers on a four Oscar categories that we haven't considered here at the FAC thus far for this season.  So today we look at Film Editing, Cinematography, Foreign Language Film and Documentary Feature.


For the purpose of The FAC I gather data from the publicly posted predictions of the following:

Erik Anderson/Awards Watch
Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit
Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter
Peter Knegt/Indiewire
Joey Magidson/Hollywood News
Nathaniel Rogers/Film Experience
Sasha Stone/Awards Daily
Kristopher Tapley/Variety-InContention
Anne Thompson/Thompson on Hollywood

TFF #42 films are in Bold.


BEST FILM EDITING

1) The Revenant
2) Spotlight
3) Mad Max: Fury Road
4) Bridge of Spies
5) Steve Jobs

6) The Martian
7) Joy
8) Sicario
9) The Hateful Eight
10) Jurassic Park

Comment: The category that has become semi-mythical in terms of its pairing with the eventual Best Picture winner seems to be among the top six films here.  Though, any of these ten could get in.


BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

1) The Revenant
2) Sicario
3) Mad Max; Fury Road
4) Carol
5) Bridge of Spies

6) The Hateful Eight
7) The Martian
8) In the Heart of the Sea
9) The Danish Girl
10) Son of Saul

Comment:  The five nominees probably come from the top seven listed here.

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

1) Son of Saul
2) Labyrinth of Lies
3) Mustang
4) Second Mother
5) The Assassin

6) Rams
7) Viva
8) Goodnight Mommy
9) The Club
10) A Pigeon Sat on a Branch...

Comment:  This category is largely believed to be about narrowing the field down to the four films that eventually lose to "Son of Saul".  In a year where most categories are still fairly unpredictable, "Saul" might be the surest bet for Oscar of any film in any category.


BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

1) Amy
2) The Look of Silence (TFF #41)
3) Going Clear
4) Best of Enemies
5) The Hunting Ground

6) Where Do We Invade Next?
7) He Named Me Malala
8) Listen to Me Marlon
9) Miss Simone
10) Cartel Land


Comment: Reflecting the sense that I got at Telluride this year, there's only one TFF #42 documentary that seems to have a shot this year and "Malala" is playing from behind.  TFF #41's "Look of Silence" looks solid.

If The FAC is 100% on the money, TFF #42 films earn another five nominations from these four categories with another four possibilities.


OSCAR MATTERS: PODS

Continuing our Thursday theme focused on the latest Oscar info, here are links to Oscar Poker with hosts Sasha Stone of Awards Daily and Jeffrey Wells of Hollywood Elsewhere and with special guest Erik Anderson of Awards Watch:

http://www.awardsdaily.com/podcasts/oscarpoker/episode115.mp3

and Awards Chatter featuring The Hollywood Reporter's Scott Feinberg:

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/race/awards-chatter-podcast-michael-moore-838623


And here's a handy overview of over thirty films culled by the staff at Variety that they believe have the largest Oscar potential.  The list includes Telluride #42 films: "Anomalisa", "Beasts of No Nation", "Black Mass", "Carol", "45 Years", "Room", "Son of Saul", "Spotlight", "Steve Jobs" and "Suffragette".  Here's the link to the complete list:


http://variety.com/gallery/best-pictures-oscar-contenders-2015/


FOCUS ON: "SPOTLIGHT", "SUFFRAGETTE" AND "BLACK MASS"

This section includes interviews from "Suffragette" director Sarah Gavron, "Black Mass' star Johnny Depp and "Spotlight" director Tom McCarthy.  There's also a link to a dissection of "Spotlight" from Uproxx:


Sarah Gavron:

http://theyoungfolks.com/review/sarah-gavron-interview-suffragette/66460

Johnny Depp:

http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/afi-fest-johnny-depp-talks-black-mass-auditioning-for-the-coen-brothers-working-with-scott-cooper-more-20151109

Tom McCarthy:

http://blogs.indiewire.com/thompsononhollywood/telluride-director-tom-mccarthy-puts-spotlight-on-sexually-predatory-catholic-priests-20150908

"Spotlight" feature:

http://uproxx.com/movies/2015/11/spotlight-inside-story/


That's the Thursday edition of MTFB/FAC.  Come back on Monday for more and have a great weekend...

Contact me at:

michael_speech@hotmail.com OR

mpgort@gmail.com OR

via Twitter @Gort2 OR to

Michael's Telluride Film Blog's Facebook page: https://www.facebook.com/pages/Michaels-Telluride-Film-Blog-and-The-Film-Awards-Clearinghouse/107846269309712

The Composite Telluride / Telluride Films Dominate in Toronto / Viva for Ireland / Notes from a Telluride First Timer

Welcome back from the weekend, my friends...It's Monday and we're all back at it (if we ever actually stopped)...


THE COMPOSITE TELLURIDE

 I have been collecting a semblance of critical response about Telluride's films each if the last four years with both The Professionals (called The Critic's Telluride in the first incarnation in  2012) and the People.  In 2013, I also began combining the ratings from both sets of responses to get and even broader perspective on the films that had played the festival.

In 2013 the top five composite films were:

1) 12 Years a Slave (9.25)
2) Tim's Vermeer (8.97)
3) Gravity (8.75)
4) Nebraska (8.38)
5) All is Lost (8.26)

In 2014 the top five were:

1) Birdman (9.18)
2) Foxcatcher (8.83)
3) The Imitation Game (8.79)
4) Wild Tales (8.43)
5) '71 (8.15)

So...here's the Composite Telluride combining the ratings from The Pros and The Peeps.  There were a total of 11 films that were shared by sufficient ratings from both groups to make the composite list ...drum roll please...

1) Spotlight (8.86)
2) Son of Saul (8.74)
3) Beasts of No Nation (8.62)
4) Steve Jobs (8.17)
5) Carol (8.13)
6) Black Mass (7.98)
7) Room (7.97)
8) 45 Years (7.84)
9) Anomalisa (7.78)
10) Suffragette (7.07)
11) He Named Me Malala (6.22)

"Ixcanul", "Marguerite" and "Rams" made the Peoples list (the criteria being that at least a third of respondents had to have included a film in their ratings to make the list).  Meanwhile, The Pros included "Time to Choose" and "Taxi" but The People did not.

The greatest agreement between the groups was the relatively low ratings for both "Suffragette" and "He Named Me Malala".  The largest disparity came on the films "Room" and "Anomalisa".  The People loved "Room" but the Pros significantly less warm about the film.  On the other hand, The Pros loved Charlie Kaufman and Duke Johnson's "Anomalisa" (their #2) and it was the lowest rated film that made the People's list.

Other notes:

I pointed out last Thursday that the #2 spot on all three previous People's ratings had gone on to win Best Picture.  I should point out, that, as you can see above, the first 2013 and 2014 leaders in the Composite  ratings were those same films ("12 Years a Slave" and "Birdman").  Does this bode well for "Spotlight"?  That's a "Maybe".  There are still a lot of BIG films that no one has seen yet that could be big time Oscar players: "The Revenant", "Hateful 8", "Joy", "Bridge of Spies", "In the Heart of the Sea"...others.

Still, I've certainly said it since Telluride weekend, if there is a film that would keep the T-ride Oscar streak alive, "Spotlight" is it.

Something else you almost certainly noticed is that "Spotlight" is the lowest rated #1 film of these three years.  As a matter for fact, it would have been at #3 on the 2013 list behind both "12 Years a Slave" and "Tim's Vermeer".

Follow all the developments concerning Telluride 2015 films and the awards season here at MTFB/The Film Awards Clearinghouse.

I'm currently planning a preliminary first run of The FAC in the next week to ten days.


TELLURIDE FILMS DOMINATE IN TORONTO

The Toronto International Film Festival announced its prize winners yesterday and films that played as a part of Telluride's lineup did very well.  Lenny Abarhamson's "Room" took top honors, the People's Choice Award and TIFF film goers also chose TFF #42 documentary "Winter on Fire" won the People's prize for Best Doc.  Tom McCarthy's "Spotlight", also a TFF #42 choice was 2nd runner-up in the main category.

Complete TIFF winners are here:

http://www.ew.com/article/2015/09/20/tiff-2015-room-peoples-choice-award

VIVA FOR IRELAND

Ireland has announced that it will submit TFF #42 film "Viva" as its official entrant into the Best Foreign Language Oscar sweepstakes.  To the best of my knowledge, it becomes the fourth TFF #42 film to be so designated following "Son of Saul" from Hungary, "Rams" from Iceland and "Ixcanul" from Guatemala.

I have included coverage of the Irish announcement here from The Hollywood Reporter, IFTN and RTE:

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/oscars-ireland-selects-viva-foreign-824133

http://www.iftn.ie/rep_bodies/repbodiesnews/?act1=record&only=1&aid=73&rid=4288615&tpl=archnews&force=1

http://www.rte.ie/ten/news/2015/0917/728379-ireland-chooses-viva-as-foreign-language-film-osca/



NOTES FROM A TELLURIDE FIRST TIMER

Do you remember your first Telluride experience?  I remember mine.  The wife and I had really very little idea what we had been invited to.  We arrived half way through the fest in 2006 and had been gifted a handful of individual passes.  We stood in line at The Chuck on Saturday evening after some confusion about the whole "Q" process and then got in and got seated.

We knew a bit about the film we were about to see but not a ton.  We shifted in our seats anxiously and then the venues MC approached the mic to introduce the film, which I fully expected, and then, to our surprise, the director was introduced.  The director was Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu and the film was "Babel".  As Inarritu began to talk about why he made the film, I turned to Kristy and we made eye contact...big, wide-eyed eye contact...this was clearly something special.

We moved through the remainder of the weekend in awe and when our hosts if we'd like to come back in 2007, our response was an overwhelming YES!

I expect most of us who attend Telluride with regularity have some similar story.

So. with that in mind, let me direct you to Kenny Miles.  Mr. Miles attended TFF for the first time this year.  The Denver based film critic and writer also served as a part of The Professionals rating this year's films.  Kenny posted last week about his first TFF experience and also wrote a bit about his inclusion on the MTFB Pros raring cavalcade.  It's a fun read.  Check it out here:

http://themovieblog.com/2015/kennys-first-telluride-film-festival-experience-was-unforgettable/


That's a wrap for this Monday.  The next post comes Thursday with a new feature.  I'll put together the top ten films from the last three Tellurides from the composite ratings that we've seen.


And don't be afraid to contact me:

michael_speech@hotmail.com OR

mpgort@gmail.com OR

via Twitter @Gort2 OR to

Michael's Telluride Film Blog's Facebook page: https://www.facebook.com/pages/Michaels-Telluride-Film-Blog-and-The-Film-Awards-Clearinghouse/107846269309712