The Distributors: Sony Pictures Classics / Trailer for Goodbye Christopher Robin

Welcome to Friday everyone...leaving La La Land today to head back to Casa Patterson...

THE DISTRIBUTORS: SONY PICTURES CLASSICS

As I wrote yesterday, I'm beginning the annual summer assessment of film distribution companies as a way to try to read the Telluride tea leaves.

I tend to begin this each summer with Sony Pictures Classics because, certainly in my time as an attendee, no other distributor has had as strong and continuous presence at TFF than SPC.  As I reminded everyone yesterday, here is the legacy of SPC over the past several years:

2016: The Eagle Huntress, Maudie, Norman, Toni Erdmann (4)
2015: Son of Saul (1)
2014: Foxcatcher, Leviathan, Red Army, Mr. Turner, Wild Tales, Salt of the Earth and Merchants of Doubt (7)
2013: The Invisible Woman, The Lunchbox, The Past, Tim's Vermeer and Jodorowsky's Dune (5)
2012: The Gatekeepers, At Any Price, Rust and Bone, No, Wadjda, Amour (6)
2011: A Dangerous Method, In Darkness, Footnote, A Separation (4)
2010: Incendies, Of Gods and Men, Tamara Drewe, Another Year, The Illusionist, Inside Job (6)
2009: The Last Station, The White Ribbon, Coco Before Chanel, A Prophet, An Education (5)
2008: Waltz with Bashir, I've Loved You So Long, O'Horten (3)
2007: Brick Lane, When Did You Last See Your Father, Persepolis, The Band's Visit, The Counterfeiters, Steep! (6)
2006: Jindabyne, The Lives of Others, Volver, The Italian (4)
2005: Breakfast on Pluto, Capote, Cache, The Child (4)
2004: Being Julia, House of Flying Daggers, Bad Education, Merchant of Venice, Up and Down, Yes (6)
2003: The Fog of War, My Life Without Me, The Triplets of Belleville, Young Adam (4)


SPC averages 4-5 films per year at the fest. Looking at the films that are listed as under the SPC umbrella at IMDb...here's a thought or two about those SPC films:

Initially, I'm not gong to assess films from SPC that played Sundance but are not yet in release (ex: Call Me By Your Name, Novitiate) due to Telluride's "first North American showing" policy but I will have a note about that below.  That leaves eight films to evaluate.

In order of TFF likelihood (at least for right now):

1) Loveless/Zvyagnistev.  The factors:  Played Cannes were it won awards and was well reviewed (88 Metascore).  Zvyagnistev played T-ride in '14 with Leviathan.  Chances: 80%.

2) A Fantastic Woman/Lelio.  The factors: Played Berlin where it won awards and was really well reviewed (96 Metascore).  Lelio played T-ride in '13 with Gloria.  Chances: 75%.

3) The Rider/Zhao.  The factors: An SPC purchase at Cannes after a very good play in the Director's Fortnight (86 Metascore).  Despite a young director and a cast of unprofessional actors, this is a film that I just have a gut instinct about in as far as TFF is concerned.  Chances: 60%.

4) Happy End/Haneke.  The factors:  Despite some critical disgruntlement, the film has a respectable Metascore (78) and Haneke's history is very strong with TFF (Amour, The White Ribbon , Cache). Chances: 55%.

After those four, the SPC slate seems a bit murkier as far as predicting films with a possible Telluride fest play.

5) Final Portrait/Tucci.  The factors: The biopic about artist Alberto Giacometti stars Geoffrey Rush (who was in T-ride in '10 with The King's Speech).  Stanley Tucci wrote and directed the film which played Berlin.  That plus a good Metascore (76) give it the #5 spot.  Chances: 40%.

6) The Silent Man/Landesman.  The factors: Liam Neeson stars as Mark Felt, the Deep Throat of Watergate fame.  It hasn't played festivals to this point.  If TFF is looking to program a film that "feels" reflective of the current environment in Washington; this could be a way to do that.  Chances: 25%

7) The Leisure Seeker/Virzi.  The factors: Like Silent Man, The Leisure Seeker has not played at a fest as yet.  It stars Helen Mirren (The Last Station '09) and Donald Sutherland.  Chances: 20%

Note about The Silent Man and The Leisure Seeker.  Though neither has played a festival, neither did SPC films Norman nor Maudie last year...so don't count either film out.

8) Based on a True Story/Polanski.  The factors:  The film was not reviewed well following its Cannes play (Metascore 43) and Polanski's inability to accompany the film to the U.S.  makes it the least likely of the eight SPC films listed here.  Chances: 5%.

One final note:  Although I doubt that Telluride plays another Sundance film this year, it's not impossible.  Last year both Manchester by the Sea and The Eagle Huntress played Sundance first and there was a lot of buzz that Birth of a Nation might make the same journey until the film got mired in director Nate Parker's controversy.  Sooo...2% chances for Call Me By Your Name and Novitiate.


Monday's look will be The Weinstein Company.


TRAILER FOR GOODBYE CHRISTOPHER ROBIN

If you didn't see it yesterday, Fox Searchlight dropped a trailer for Simon Curtis' Goodbye Christopher Robin starring Domnhall Gleeson as Winnie the Pooh creator A.A. Milne.  Margot Robbie co-stars as his wife.

Here's the trailer from YouTube:

The scenes look lovely and obviously, Fox Searchlight, which has dated the film for an Oct. 13th release, thinks it has an awards player on its hands.

Could it play Telluride?  I'll be assessing its chances as I look at the FS slate next week.

Here's additional coverage of the releases of the trailer from:

Indiewire

The Playlist

The Film Stage

FirstShowing


Come back on Monday...


EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com

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Cannes Concludes and Awards Are Announced / The Telluride Analysis / Oscar Players in the Cannes Afterglow / Non-Cannes Trailers

Good Memorial Day Monday to all...


CANNES CONCLUDES AND AWARDS ARE ANNOUNCED

The 70th edition of the Cannes Film Festival came to its conclusion last night with the awarding of prizes in the main competition category.

The winners:

Palme d'Or: The Square (Ruben Ostlund)

Grand Prix: 120 BPM. (Robin Campillo)

Jury Prize: Loveless (Andrey Zvyaginstev)

Director:  Sofia Coppola-The Beguiled

Actress: Diane Kruger-In the Fade 

Actor-Joaquin Phoenix- You Were Never Really Here

Special 70th Anniversary Honors- Nicole Kidman

Screenplay- You Were Never Really Here (Lynne Ramsay) and The Killing of a Sacred Deer (Yorgos Lanthimos)

In the Un Certain Regard section past Telluride tribute recipient Mohammad Rasoulof's A Man of Integrity took the top prize and Taylor Sheridan's Wind River won the award for Best Direction. April's Daughter was the winner of the Jury Prize.

Of note among the winners was Coppola's historic win for direction as well as the rare double win for actor and screenplay for Ramsay's film.  A bit of a surprise was the lack of any mention for a Todd Haynes' Wonderstruck which Indiewire had listed as having the third best odds for the Palme.

THE TELLURIDE ANALYSIS

So here's my best quick Telluride assessment of the winners' chances in as far as T-ride is concerned:

The Square- Magnolia is the distributor which was last at Telluride with Viva in 2015.  Magnolia hasn't had a deep relationship with the fest.  That combined with The fact that Ostlund hasn't played there either makes me think that 2017 may well be the fourth consecutive TFF at which the Palme d'Or winner does not play.  Cannes at TFF- 25%

120 BPM- A solid critical darling of Cannes #70 and with U.S. distribution from The Orchard, which scored well at Telluride last year with Pablo Larrain's Neruda have it in good position as a T-tide possible.  Probably gets the biggest boost of any Cannes film  that I haven't already had my eye on. Chances- 55%.

Loveless- Zvyagnistev's Leviathan played in the San Juans three years ago and so Loveless was already a hot prospect to get to The SHOW this Labor Day.  Its Jury Award probably boosts to shot. That and the fact that it's distributor is frequent Telluride player Sony Pictures  Classics suggests a high likelihood of a return for Mr. Z.  Chances- 70%.

The Beguiled- 0% chance as it opens at the end of June.

In the Fade- Could this crack the T-ride lineup?  Fatih Akin's lack of Telluride history, the film's lack of U.S. distribution and a middling critical response makes me think that the film's chances are small.  Chances- 20%.

You Were Never Really Here-  A double award win, Lynne Ramsay and coming from a Amazon Studios, this film, which I already thought had a reasonable shot at Telluride, moves even closer, I think.  Chances- 70%.

The Killing of a Sacred Deer- After a couple of great years at Telluride, I have no doubt that A24 will be back with something this year.  I'm just not sure that it will be this Lanthimos film.  It could happen but my guess is that other A24 films may have a better shot (Woodshock, Good Time and especially The Florida Project).  Still, a T-ride play could happen.  Chances- 35%.

A couple of other notes...I imagine that Rasoulof's Man of Integrity has an even chance of playing and despite its awards shut out, I still believe that Todd Haynes' Wonderstruck is a likely Show for The SHOW.

Finally, don't be surprised if Chloe Zhao's The Rider makes the T-ride lineup.

 Additionally, Faces/Places from Agnes Varda and JR looks like a very good bet.

Complete coverage and analysis of Cannes award winners can be found at the following links:

The New York Times

Deadline.com

Entertainment Weekly

Indiewire

OSCAR PLAYERS IN THE CANNES AFTERGLOW

The general consensus coming from France as the Cannes Fest concluded was that the Croisette was low on Oscar potential with most observers suggesting that the only real player in terms of Best Picture might be Wonderstruck.

Though there may well some other players as well, especially in the foreign language category...I'm looking at you Loveless...take a look at where some of the sages of Oscar come down as Cannes was coming to an end:

Guy Lodge for Variety

Pete Hammond for Deadline

Anne Thompson from Indiewire

NON-CANNES TRAILERS FOR FILMS WE COULD SEE 

And as Cannes was winding down, there was the release of trailers for two films that did not play in France but that could find their way onto the lineup over Labor Day weekend.

We found out this week that Sony Pictures Classics had picked up the Liam Neeson starrer The Silent Man and that the story of the real Watergate Deep Throat had a trailer.  Here it is from YouTube:

Along with the trailer, here are some posts that accompanied its release and the SPC pickup news:

The Hollywood Reporter

Deadline

The Playlist

Additionally, Wonder, starring Julia Roberts and Room's Jacob Tremblay, released its first look video this week.  From Lionsgate, the film is slated to open in mid-November.  Both factors suggest the possibility of serious festival and awards play.

Here's that video, also from YouTube:

Deadline provides some of the details for the film.

That will do it for this Monday in May...more to come on Thursday...

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com

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