Showing posts with label The Way Back. Show all posts
Showing posts with label The Way Back. Show all posts

Thursday, February 24, 2011

Tff #37/The Oscar Clearinghouse and The People That Vote


I had the relatively surreal experience of getting to correspond/converse with voting members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) yesterday. Both of my “interviewees” were very gracious with their time and I, again, want to thank them for taking the time to answer a novice blogger's questions about The Oscars.

Of course we didn’t get into specifics. As one of my sources reminded me yesterday, the Academy requests confidentiality. But we did talk some generalities that I found (and you might find) interesting.

Both of my interviewees bring a good deal of experience to the table as they each have been AMPAS members for more than 20 years. Neither of them are members of the acting branch (which is the largest branch of the Academy). One of them sent their ballot in early this month while the other sent a ballot in Saturday.

Interviewee #1 indicated that s/he was hopeful that at least some of the choices s/he made would be winners on Sunday night and did express some hope that “The King’s Speech” would win Best Picture.

I also asked Interviewee #1 what it was like to be voting for the biggest prize in the profession and in categories that often include people that are known personally to the voter. The response: “It’s a tough business, but one has to be impartial.”

Interviewee #2 told me that s/he was inundated prior to nomination time with screeners. I have always been fascinated by the studio process of sending those DVDs out to voters. Interviewee #2 told me that s/he had been sent 50+ screeners in the Oscar process. Interviewee #2 also had an interesting theory about the success of “Winter’s Bone” and its multiple nominations. S/he told me that “Winter’s Bone” had been the first screener to hit and that that jump seemed to always yield positive results. The theory is that being the first pays off with nominations.

Interestingly, Interviewee #1 disagreed. The contention was that the early screeners get buried by the sheer number of DVD’s that are sent out. #1 pointed out that Peter Weir’s “The Way Back” deliberately pursued a last second screener strategy so it would be the last thing voters saw.

I asked both interviewees about anything that they might have been disappointed about once the nominations came out. One said that they weren’t thrilled with the 4 Best Song nominations. The other said that they were disappointed that Lesley Manville hadn’t been nominated for Mike Leigh’s “Another Year.”

Ultimately, I was very grateful that both of these professionals took time out to answer some questions from an Oscar Blogging babe in the woods. The upshot, I will be talking to both of them again next week as a part of the post-Oscar parsing of the results. So, I’m looking forward to that.

Coming on Sunday morning…the final look at The Oscar Clearinghouse prior to Sunday night’s presentation.

Tuesday, January 25, 2011

Oscar 83 and Telluride Film #37/The Oscar Clearinghouse


Telluride #37 with 32 Oscar nominations. The Clearinghouse gets 85 out 105 in 21 categories.


TFF #37 films with Oscar Noms:

THE KING'S SPEECH-12

127 HOURS-6

BLACK SWAN-5

BIUTIFUL-2

ANOTHER YEAR-1

THE WAY BACK-1

INSIDE JOB-1

INCENDIES-1

THE ILLUSIONIST-1

POSTER GIRL-1
GOD OF LOVE-1


THE KING'S SPEECH over-performed getting 12 nominations instead of the anticipated 9. True Grit hit its expected 10. BLACK SWAN (5 instead of the expected 7), 127 HOURS (6 instead of 7)and Inception (8 instead of 10) underperformed.


By category, here's how The Clearinghouse did.


Picture: Swan, Fighter, Inception, Kids, TKS, 127, TSN, TS3, True and Winter's. Clearinghouse goes 10 for 10. One of 4 categories that we hit 100% .


Director: 4 of 5. Aronofsky, Russell, Hooper, Fincher and The Coens. Coens a small surprise. Nolan's exclusion a BIG SURPRISE. Though we had The Coens as the first likely suspects if one of the predicted five didn't make the cut. I just never thought it would be Nolan that got the short end.


Actress: 5 of 5. Bening, Kidman, Lawrence, Portman, Williams. No Manville, though...sad face.




Actor: 4 of 5. Bardem, Bridges, Eisenberg, Firth, and Franco. Bardem in and Duvall out...again, we had Bardem as a possible spoiler.


Supporting Actress: 4 0f 5. Adams, Bonham Carter, Leo, Steinfeld, Weaver. In the last spot-Weaver. We had it as a dead heat with Mila Kunis.


Supporting Actor: 4 of 5. Bale, Hawkes, Renner, Ruffalo, and Rush. Hawkes in for Garfield. Yes!


Adapted Screenplay: 5 of 5. 127, TSN, TS3, True, Winter's


Original Screenplay: 5 of 5. Another Year (yea!), Fighter, Inception, Kids, TKS. A notoriously difficult pair of categories and The Clearinghouse got all 10 writing nominees. A little smug.


Animated: 3 of 3. Dragon, TS3 and THE ILLUSIONIST. Again...smug.


Foreign: 4 of 5. Biutiful, Dogtooth, In a Better World, Incendies, Outside the Law. Law in and S. Africa's "Life, Above All" out.


Doc: 2 of 5. One of our two worst categories. Exit thru the Gift Shop, Gasland, INSIDE JOB, Resterpo, Waste Land. The Big stunner is the absence of "Waiting for Superman."


Art Direction: 4 of 5. Alice, Harry, Inception, TKS, True. Harry for "Shutter Island"..though not really a surprise.


Cinematography: 4 of 5. Swan, Inception, TKS, TSN, True. TKS for 127 Hours...yes, that's a surprise.


Costume: 4 of 5. Alice, I am Love, TKS, Tempest, True. I am Love in for Black Swan...yes, also a surprise. One of the biggest of the day.


Film Editing: 4 of 5. Swan, Fighter, TKS, 127, TSN. King's Speech in, Inception out. A stunner and one of four or five "signs" that The King's Speech is actually the favorite to win Best Picture now. More on the "signs" below.


Makeup: 1 of 3. Barney's Version, The Way Back, The Wolfman. Barney and way Back in Alice and True Grit out. The OC was not good here, but also not awful. We had Barney and The Way Back listed as possible spoilers.


Original Score: 4 of 5. Dragon, Inception, TKS, 127, TSN. 127 Hours in and Never Let Me Go out. We did have 127 Hours listed as a possible.


Original Song: 3 of 4. Country Strong, Tangled, 127, TS3. Weirdly only 4 nominees. Country Strong in and Burlesque and Superman out.


Sound Edit: 4 of 5. Inception, TS3, Tron, True, Unstoppable. Unstop in for 127. We had Unstop as a possible.


Sound Mix: 3 of 5. Inception, TKS, Salt, TSN, True. Salt and King's in for Swan and Tron. Salt is a stunner and another "sign" that TKS may be the frontrunner.


Visual FX: 4 of 5. Alice, Harry, Hereafter, Inception, Iron Man 2. Hereafter stuns Tron.
Signs that THE KING'S SPEECH might be your frontrunner...Most nominations, Nominated for Film Editing (almost always a necessity for a film to win Best Picture is an accompanying nomination in Editing), Cinematography and SOUND MIXING??? Really????
Conventional (quick) wisdom is that The King's Speech wins Best Picture and several others and The Social Network's Fincher wins director.
Coming soon to the OC...we handicap the field of nominees for your Oscar winners.





Tuesday, January 11, 2011

The Oscar Clearinghouse #6- A Fortnight 'til Nominations



Two weeks until the Oscar nominations are announced and here is the state of the race via The Oscar Clearinghouse with data compiled from: Scott Feinberg, The Gold Derby, Awards Daily, Dave Karger at Entertainment Weekly, Film Misery, InContention.com, Gurus of Gold from the LA Times, Awards Circuit and Film Experience.




TFF #37 films in CAPS AND BOLD




Best Picture: 1) The Social Network, 2) THE KING'S SPEECH, 3) The Fighter, 4) Inception, 5) BLACK SWAN, 6) True Grit, 7) Toy Story 3, 8) The Kids Are All Right, 9) 127 HOURS, 10) The Town


Others: Winter's Bone, ANOTHER YEAR, Shutter Island, THE WAY BACK, The Ghost Writer


Hot: True Grit, Shutter Island, The Ghost Writer


Not: Toy Story 3, Rabbit Hole


Thought: TSN actually opens up its lead by a minute fraction on TKS. Meanwhile, 127 Hours, The Town and Winter's Bone are in a dead heat for the last 2 nominations.




Direction: 1) David Fincher/The Social Network, 2) TOM HOOPER/THE KING'S SPEECH, 3) DARREN ARONOFSKY/BLACK SWAN, 4) Christopher Nolan/Inception 5) David O. Russell/The Fighter


Others: The Coen Brothers/True Grit, DANNY BOYLE/127 HOURS, Debra Granik/Winter's Bone, MIKE LEIGH/ANOTHER YEAR, Linda Cholodenko/Kids Are All Right


Hot: Zip


Not: Boyle


Thought: Fincher has a perfect score. Coens for Russell would be my guess for how the actual nominations shake out at this point.




Actress: 1) NATALIE PORTMAN/BLACK SWAN, 2) Annette Bening/Kids Are All Right, 3) Jennifer Lawrence/Winter's Bone, 4) Nicole Kidman/Rabbit Hole, 5) LESLEY MANVILLE/ANOTHER YEAR


Others: Michelle Williams/Blue Valentine, Hilary Swank/Conviction, Julianne Moore/Kids, Halle Berry/Frankie & Alice, Tilda Swinton/I Am Love, Naoomi Rapace/Girl Who Played with Fire


Hot: Rapace


Not: Zip


Thought: Portman is one point off of a perfect score and has edged Bening to be the frontrunner for now. Inside the numbers, I think there's still a good possibility that Williams edges Manville for the 5th spot. Also, an interesting note, this was the first time this season that I saw one of the prognosticators put True Grit's Hailee Steinfeld in this race rather than Supporting Actress...hmmm.




Actor: 1) COLIN FIRTH/THE KING'S SPEECH, 2) JAMES FRANCO/127 HOURS, 3) Jesse Eisenberg/The Social Network, 4) Jeff Bridges/True Grit, 5) Robert Duvall/Get Low


Others: Ryan Gosling/Blue Valentine, Mark Wahlberg/The Fighter, JAVIER BARDEM/BIUTIFUL, Leonardo DiCaprio/Shutter Island


Hot: Zip


Not: Zip


Thought: An incredibly stable category. Firth racks up a perfect score. He plus Franco and Eisenberg appear locks for nominations..then it's a free for all between Bridges, Duvall, Gosling and Wahlberg for the last two spots.




Supporting Actress: 1) Melissa Leo/The Fighter, 2) Hailee Steinfeld/True Grit, 3) Amy Adams/The Fighter, 4) HELENA BONHAM CARTER/THE KING'S SPEECH, 5) Jacki Weaver/Animal Knigdom


Others: MILA KUNIS/BLACK SWAN, Dianne Weist/Rabbit Hole, Sissy Spacek/Get Low, Miranda Richardson/Made in Dagenham, BARBARA HERSHEY/BLACK SWAN


Hot: Steinfeld


Not: Zip


Thought: 6 women for 5 spots...Inside the numbers, Kunis has been gaining ground. Weist has probably stopped being a realistic possibility.




Supporting Actor: 1) Christian Bale/The Fighter, 2) GEOFFREY RUSH/THE KING'S SPEECH, 3) Mark Ruffalo/Kids Are All Right, 4) Jeremy Renner/The Town, 5) Andrew Garfield/The Social Network


Others: John Hawkes/Winter's Bone, Sam Rockwell/Conviction, Matt Damon/True Grit, Michael Douglas/Wall Street, ED HARRIS/THE WAY BACK


Hot: Damon


Not: Harris, Bill Murray


Thought: Bale has a perfect score. Hawkes and Rockwell are still a part of the conversation, but Damon, Douglas and Harris don't really stand a chance of a nomination.




Original Screenplay: 1) DAVID SEIDLER/THE KING'S SPEECH, 2) Cholodenko & Blumberg/Kids Are All right, 3) Christopher Nolan/Inception, 4) MIKE LEIGH/ANOTHER YEAR, 5) Silver & Tamasy/The Fighter


Others: HEINZ/HEYMAN/BLACK SWAN, Cianfrance, Curtis & DeLavigne/Blue Valentine, Provenzano & Mitchell/Get Low, Sofia Coppola/Somewhere, William Ivory/Made in Dagenham


Hot: Zip


Not: Zip


Thought: King's is one point off a perfect score. King's and Kids are locks, I think...then...pick 'em. 3 spots for 5 scripts.






Adapted Screenplay: 1) Aaron Sorkin/The Social Network, 2) Michael Arndt/Toy Story 3, 3) Granik & Rosselini/Winter's Bone, 4) The Coens/True Grit, 5) BOYLE & BEAUFOY/127 HOURS


Others: Criag, Affleck & Stoddard/The Town, Roman Polanski/The Ghost Writer, David Lindsay-Abaire/Rabbit Hole, Cowell & Davies/How to Train Your Dragon, PETER WEIR/THE WAY BACK


Hot: Polanski/Ghost Writer


Not: Zip


Thought: TSN has a perfect score. After that, maybe even more of a crapshoot than Original Screenplay with the next 6 scripts with a real shot at the 4 remaining spots.






The Breakdown (for the Big 8 categories):


Predicted Nominations:


6 nominations- THE KING'S SPEECH and The Fighter


5 nominations- The Social Network


4 nominations- True Grit, The Kids Are All Right


3 nominations- Inception, BLACK SWAN, 127 HOURS


2 nominations- Toy Story 3, The Town, Winter's Bone, ANOTHER YEAR




Collective Nominations and Possible Nominations:


7 combined- The Fighter


6 combined- THE KING'S SPEECH, BLACK SWAN, True Grit, The Kids Are All Right


5 combined- The Social Network, Winter's Bone


4 combined- 127 HOURS, ANOTHER YEAR, Get Low


3 combined- Inception, The Town, THE WAY BACK, Blue Valentine, Rabbit Hole




As of this post TFF #37 accounts for 14 nominations and 10 other possibles in the Big 8 categories.




Check out The Clearinghouse post from Jan. 7th to see where the race stand in the technical and foreign categories.




Friday, January 7, 2011

Tellurdie Film Festival/The Oscar Clearinghouse-Tech and More


Less than three weeks until Oscar nominations are announced and here's a look at the trends in the Technical/Doc/Foreign/Animated categories....We'll forgo the Short Subject categories (Live, Animated, Doc)...TFF #37 in CAPS AND BOLD




ART DIRECTION: 1) Inception, 2) THE KING'S SPEECH, 3) Alice in Wonderland, 4) Shutter Island, 5) True Grit


Players: Tron:Legacy, Harry Potter/Deathly Hallows




CINEMATOGRAPHY: 1) True Grit, 2) Inception, 3) 127 HOURS, 4) BLACK SWAN, 5) Shutter Island


Players: THE WAY BACK, The Social Network


Notes: Roger Deakins...please.




COSTUME: 1) Alice in Wonderland, 2) THE KING'S SPEECH, 3) The Tempest, 4) True Grit, 5) Burlesque


Players: Get Low, Made in Dagenham




FILM EDITING: 1) The Social Network, 2) Inception, 3) 127 HOURS, 4) BLACK SWAN, 5) True Grit


Players: The Fighter




MAKEUP: 1) Alice in Wonderland, 2) The Wolfman, 3) BLACK SWAN




ORIGINAL SCORE: 1) Inception, 2) How to Train Your Dragon, 3) NEVER LET ME GO, 4) THE KING'S SPEECH, 5) True Grit


Players: The Ghost Writer




ORIGINAL SONG: 1) Tangled, 2) Toy Story 3, 3) Waiting for Superman, 4) Burlesque, 5) 127 HOURS


Player: Country Strong




SOUND EDITING: 1) Inception, 2) 127 HOURS, 3) Tron:Legacy, 4) Toy Story 3, 5) How to Train Your Dragon


Players: Iran Man 2, Unstoppable




SOUND MIXING: 1) Inception, 2) True Grit, 3) 127 HOURS, 4) Tron:Legacy, 5) Unstoppable


Players: Iron Man 2, BLACK SWAN, Toy Story 3




VISUAL EFFECTS: 1) Inception, 2) Tron:Legacy, 3) Iron Man 2, 4) Harry Potter/Deathly Hallows, 5) Alice in Wonderland






ANIMATED FEATURE: 1) Toy Story 3, 2) How to Train Your Dragon, 3) Tangled


Players: THE ILLUSIONIST, Despicable Me




DOCUMENTARY: 1) INSIDE JOB, 2) Waiting for Superman, 3) The Tillman Story, 4) Wasteland, 5) Restrepo


Players: Exit Through the Gift Shop, Gasland




FOREIGN FILM: 1) Outside the Law/Algeria, 2) OF GODS AND MEN/FRANCE, 3) INCENDIES/CANADA, 4) Life Above All/South Africa,5) Son of Babylon/Iraq


Players: BIUTIFUL/MEXICO, In a Better World/Denmark




Notes:


If the above were 100% accurate TFF #37 will have 30 nominations and 13 other possibles (including the Big 8 categories).


Breakdown by TFF #37:




The King's Speech and 127 Hours 9 noms and 0 possibles


Black Swan 6 noms and 4 possibles


Another Year 2 noms and 2 possible


Inside Job 1 nom


Never Let Me Go 1 nom


The Way Back 4 possibles


Biutiful 2 possibles


The Illusionist 1 possible



Foreign Films 2 noms (Of Gods and Men and Incendies) and 1 possible (Biutiful)


Th Clearinghouse says that the films with the most nominations would be (if the nominations were announced today and irrespective of TFF #37):

1) True Grit 10 (with another possible)

2) Inception 10

3) THE KING'S SPEECH 9

3) 127 HOURS 9

5) BLACK SWAN 6 (with 4 more possible)

6) The Social Network 6 (with another possible)

7) Toy Story 3 5 (with another possible)

8) The Fighter 4 (with 3 more possible)

9) The Kids Are All Right 4 (with 2 more possible)

10) Winter's Bone 3 (with 2 more possible)


Others with 4 or more possibles:

THE WAY BACK, ANOTHER YEAR, Rabbit Hole, Get Low, Alice in Wonderland, Tron: Legacy, How to Train Your Dragon...Honorable Mention: Shutter Island and The Town.


Next Week...an updated Big 8 Categories.

Sources: InContention.com, Film Misery, The Awards Circuit










Friday, December 31, 2010

News from the OC-Goodbye 2010


ThePlaylist
In Theaters: 'Blue Valentine,' 'Another Year,' 'Biutiful,' 'The Way Back'


All but "Blue Valentine" palyed as a part of TFF #37.


Also, we're in Telluride for New Year's. Looking forward to the celebration tonight at the New Sheridan and on Colorado Ave. in front of the courthouse. But it is going to be very, very COLD. 5 to 10 below zero!!!


Reportedly celebs in town include Justin Timberlake, Mark Wahlberg and Jerry Seinfeld.


Happy New Year everyone!

Wednesday, December 1, 2010

News from the OC

ThePlaylist
Watch: New Trailer For Peter Weir's 'The Way Back' With Colin Farrell, Ed Harris & Jim Sturgess http://dlvr.it/82S0b

MovieCityNews
A Conversation with Tamara Drewe Director Stephen Frears: We shot it late in the year--in September, not in mid-su... http://bit.ly/cOuzO6

Variety_Film
Bonham Carter feels fit for a queen: Film News: 'Speech' gets actress talking up royal role -- Royal leads Colin F... http://bit.ly/cm6jBT

Tuesday, November 30, 2010

The Oscar Clearinghouse #4


"The Fighter" has come out swinging...


It helps when people have actually seen your film. David O. Russell's "The Fighter" featuring Mark Wahlburg, Christian Bale, Melissa Leo and Amy Adams has stormed into contention after press screenings were generally positive. Also warming up some over the last 4 weeks..."The Town," "Winter's Bone" (which is likely to get more boosts from its success at the Gotham Awards and Independent Spirit Nominations) and "Get Low." Losing some steam..."True Grit" (although I really expect that to change in the next week or so as screenings have occurred and the press embargo for that is supposed to end tomorrow...) and "Another Year" (which is too bad, because I really liked "Another Year" a lot).


Here's the breakdown on the last day of November using the source material from: Movie City News Gurus of Gold, Awards Daily, Film Misery, InContention.com, Scott Feinberg, Awards Circuit and Film Experience.


TELLURIDE #37 FILMS IN CAPS AND BOLD.


Best Picture: 1) The Social Network, 2) THE KING'S SPEECH, 3) 127 HOURS, 4) Toy Story 3, 5) Inception, 6) The Kids Are All Right, 7) True Grit, 8) The Fighter, 9) BLACK SWAN, 10) Winter's Bone

Close: The Town, THE WAY BACK, ANOTHER YEAR, Rabbit Hole, Blue Valentine

Out: Fair Game, Hereafter

Hot: 127 HOURS, The Fighter, The Town

Not: True Grit, ANOTHER YEAR

Thought: Social Network and King's Speech continue to jockey for the top spot despite what I think is still an almost subliminal decline foe Social Network. I continue to think that this category is a four horse race with those two plus True Grit and Inception battling for the prize. Also, finally saw The Kids Are All Right...and it's all right...over-rated, over-hyped, but all right.


Best Director: 1) David Fincher/Social Network, 2) TOM HOOPER/KING'S SPEECH, 3) Christopher Nolan/Inception, 4) DANNY BOYLE/127 HOURS, 5) DARREN ARONOFSKY/BLACK SWAN

Close: The Coen Brothers/True Grit, David O. Russell/The Fighter, MIKE LEIGH/ANOTHER YEAR, Linda Cholodenko/Kids Are All Right, PETER WEIR/THE WAY BACK

Out: Debra Granik/Winter's Bone

Hot: Russell

Not: Weir

Thought: What an ugly category. 7 players for the 5 spots. I still think the Coens get in and Aronofsky will be on the outside looking in.


Best Actress: 1) Anette Bening/Kids Are All Right, 2) NATALIE PORTMAN/BLACK SWAN, 3) Jennifer Lawrence/Winter's Bone, 4) Nicole Kidman/Rabbit Hole, 5) LESLEY MANVILLE/ANOTHER YEAR

Close: Michelle Williams/Blue Valentine, Julianne Moore/Kids Are All Right, Anne Hathaway/Love and Other Drugs, Tilda Swinton/I Am Love, Naomi Watts/Fair Game

Out: Diane Lane, Sally Hawkins

Hot: Swinton

Not: Manville...look out. The droop of Another Year's fortunes seems to be dragging her out of the race.

Thought:See above


Best Actor: 1) COLIN FIRTH/THE KING'S SPEECH, 2) Jeff Bridges/True Grit, 3) JAMES FRANCO/127 HOURS, 4) Robert Duvall/Get Low, 5) Ryan Gosling/Blue Valentine

Close: Jesse Eisenberg/Social Network, JAVIER BARDEM/BIUTIFUL, Mark Wahlberg/The Fighter, Leonardo DiCaprio/Shutter Island, Pau Giamatti/Barney's Version

Out: Sean Penn

Hot: Bridges and DiCaprio

Not: Giamatti

Thought: Bridges continued assault may be a better indicator that True Grit is a serious player as opposed to the movement in the Best Picture category.


Best Supporting Actress: 1) HELENA BONHAM CARTER/THE KING'S SPEECH, 2)Diane Weist/Rabbit Hole, 3) Melissa Leo/The Fighter, 4) Amy Adams/The Fighter, 5) Jacki Weaver/Animal Kingdom

Close: Miranda Richardson/Made in Dagenham, Hailey Steinfeld/True Grit, Sissy Spacek/Get Low, MILA KUNIS/BLACK SWAN, Marion Cotillard/Inception

Out: Kristin Scott Thomas

Hot: Adams and Kunis

Not: Steinfeld

Thought: Nothing shows the jump that The Fighter has made more clearly than the leap the Amy Adams has enjoyed in the last couple of weeks.


Best Supporting Actor: 1) Christian Bale/The Fighter, 2) GEOFFREY RUSH/THE KING'S SPEECH, 3) Mark Ruffalo/The Kids Are All Right, 4) Andrew Garfield/The Social Network, 5) ED HARRIS/THE WAY BACK

Close: Sam Rockwell/Conviction, Justin Timberlake/Social Network, Matt Damon/True Grit, Jeremy Renner/The Town, Bill Murray/Get Low

Out: Josh Brolin

Hot: Garfield, Damon

Not: Rockwell

Thought: Bale and Rush continue to duke it out...


Adapted Screenplay: 1) The Social Network, 2) Toy Story 3, 3) 127 HOURS, 4) Winter's Bone, 5) True Grit

Close: Rabbit Hole, The Town, THE WAY BACK, How to Train Your Dragon, The Ghost Writer

Out: Love and Other Drugs


Original Screenplay: 1) THE KING'S SPEECH, 2) The Kids Are All Right, 3) ANOTHER YEAR, 4) Inception, 5) Blue Valentine

Close: The Fighter, BLACK SWAN, Get Low, Made in Dagenham, Somewhere

Out: How Do You Know

Hot: Get Low

Thought: Maybe Another Year's only nomination.


Telluride films are losing some ground as they sit at this counting with 16 predicted nominations in the Big Eight categories and 8 other possible nominations...


NOMS:

THE KING'S SPEECH-6,

The Fighter, Kids Are All Right, The Social Network, 127 HOURS-4,

Inception, True Grit, BLACK SWAN, Winter's Bone-3

Toy Story3, ANOTHER YEAR, Rabbit Hole, Blue Valentine-2


NOMS + POSSIBLES

The Fighter-7

THE KING'S SPEECH, The Social Network, The Kids Are All Right, True Grit-6

BLACK SWAN-5

127 HOURS, Inception, THE WAY BACK, ANOTHER YEAR, Rabbit Hole, Blue Valentine, Get Low-4


And later this week...The National Board of Review releases its list of the Best Films of 2010...



Thursday, November 4, 2010

News from the Clearinghouse

ThePlaylist
Watch: New Trailer For Sylvain Chomet's 'The Illusionist' http://dlvr.it/82Tg7

ThePlaylist
Watch: New Trailer For Peter Weir's 'The Way Back' With Colin Farrell, Ed Harris & Jim Sturgess http://dlvr.it/82S0b

Tuesday, November 2, 2010

The OC #3

Danny Boyle, Aron Ralston and James Franco of 127 HOURS

The Third Edition of The Oscar Clearinghouse...featuring some backlash and a charge or two.




Sources: Awards Daily, Film Misery, In Contention, David Poland/Gurus of Gold/Movie City News, Scott Feinberg, Awards Circuit, and Film Experience.




TELLURIDE FILMS IN CAPS AND BOLD




Best Picture: 1) [TIE] THE KING'S SPEECH and The Social Network, 3) True Grit, 4) Toy Story 3, 5) [TIE] 127 HOURS and Inception, 7) The Kids Are All Right, 8) ANOTHER YEAR, 9) BLACK SWAN, 10) The Fighter


Next Five: Winter's Bone, THE WAY BACK, Fair Game, Hereafter, Rabbit Hole.


Dropping Out: Secretariat


Hot: True Grit, Winter's Bone, THE WAY BACK


Not: Hereafter


Comment: True Grit continues its assault on the top ten list...despite having been seen by no one. I mentioned in the last post that this is showing us the power of a really good trailer...and I think that continues to be true. And despite its continued place atop the Best Picture list, The Social Network may be suffering from some backlash. That's showing itself more in the other races...But even in the Best Pix race, it's been caught by THE KING'S SPEECH in the last 2 weeks after enjoying a fairly substantial lead in the category. Big boosts to Winter's Bone and THE WAY BACK the last 2 weeks. And Hereafter is dropping like a stone.


Director: 1) David Fincher/Social Network, 2) TOM HOOPER/KING'S SPEECH, 3) DANNY BOYLE/127 HOURS, 4) Christopher Nolan/Inception, 5) DARREN ARONOFSKY/BLACK SWAN.

The Next Five: Coen Brothers/True Grit, MIKE LEIGH/ANOTHER YEAR, PETER WEIR/THE WAY BACK, Debra Granik/Winter's Bone, Linda Cholodenko/Kids Are All Right

Dropping Out: Doug Liman and David O. Russell

Hot: ARONOFSKY, WEIR and Granik

Not: LEIGH, Cholodenko

Comment: The Fighter's fortunes maybe on the wane as well as Russell's status would indicate. The Winter's Bone boom also shows up in this category with Granik on the list for the first time. And Mike Leigh takes a hit...which I think portends some bad future news for ANOTHER YEAR which is too bad because it's one of my favorite films of the year.


Actress: 1) Annette Bening/Kids Are All Right, 2) NATALIE PORTMAN/BLACK SWAN, 3) LESLEY MANVILLE/ANOTHER YEAR, 4) Jennifer Lawrence/Winter's Bone, 5) Nicole Kidman/Rabbit Hole

The Next Five: Julianne Moore/Kids Are All Right, Michelle Williams/Blue Valentine, Anne Hathawy/Love and Other Drugs, Diane Lane/Secretariat, Sally Hawkins/Made in Dagenham

Dropping Out: Naomi Watts

Hot: Diane Lane

Not: Watts

Comment: I saw some critical advocacy last week for the notion that I've held since I saw ANOTHER YEAR in Telluride... that Lesley Manville should be in the Supporting Category...so we'll see.


Actor: 1) COLIN FIRTH/KING'S SPEECH, 2) JAMES FRANCO/127 HOURS, 3) Robert Duvall/Get Low, 4) Jeff Bridges/True Grit, 5) Ryan Gosling/Blue Valentine

The Next Five: JAVIER BARDEM/BIUTIFUL, Jesse Eisenberg/Social Nework, Paul Giamatti/Barney's Version, Mark Wahlberg/Fighter, Sean Penn/Fair Game

No one dropped out

Hot: No one

Not: Bridges and Eisenberg

Comment: The first inkiling we have that the bloom may be coming off The Social Network rose. Eisenberg drops from # 5 to #7...and, listen, I've seen The Social Network since the last OC...and I'm a moderate fan of Fincher's and a BIG FAN of Sorkin. But...it's NOT a great film and Eisenberg's performance is the same thing he always does. Seriously, I see no definable character difference between his Zuckerberg and the kid he plays in Zombieland! I know I'm speaking heresy here...but it's just an OK film with OK performances...


Supporting Actress: 1) Diane Weist/Rabbit Hole, 2) HELENA BONHAM CARTER/THE KING'S SPEECH, 3) Melissa Leo/The Fighter, 4) Hailee Stienfeld/True Grit, 5) Jacki Weaver/Animal Kingdom

The Next Five: Miranda Richardson/Dagenham, Sissy Spacek/Get Low, Kristin Scott Thomas/Nowhere Man, Amy Adams/The Fighter, Marion Cotillard/Inception

Dropping Out: Fanning, Hershey, Hall

Hot: Weaver, Spacek, Thomas, and Cotillard

Not: Richardson

Comment: An incredibly fluid category. At this point Weist and Carter seem likely locks (although I even wonder about Weist). It's a category up for grabs.


Supporting Actor: 1) GEOFFREY RUSH/THE KING'S SPEECH, 2) Christian Bale/The Fighter, 3) Mark Ruffalo/Kids Are All Right, 4) Sam Rockwell/Conviction, 5) ED HARRIS/THE WAY BACK

The Next Five: Andrew Garfield/Social Network, Justin Timberlake/Social Network, Josh Brolin/True Grit, Bill Murray/Get Low, Jeremy Renner/The Town

Dropping out: Damon, Cassel

Hot: Rockwell, Murray and Renner

Not: Garfield

Comment: Another category that seems to indicate that there's a backlash against Social Network. A month ago when we published the first OC for this year both Garfield and Timberlake were among the likely nominees. Now they're both in the "lurking" category...and Garfield, who has always been the more likely of the two to actually get a nomination slid a good piece in the last 2 weeks. BTW, I still think Colin Farrell deserves a nod for THE WAY BACK.


Adapted Screenplay: 1) The Social Network, 2) Toy Story 3, 3) Winter's Bone, 4) 127 HOURS, 5) True Grit

The Next Five: Rabbit Hole, How to Train a Dragon, The Town, THE WAY BACK, Love and Other Drugs

Dropping Out: Miral

Hot: 127 HOURS, How to Train Your Dragon and The Town

Not: THE WAY BACK, Love and Other Drugs

Comment: A big charge from 127 HOURS the last two weeks. This category is one that DOESN'T show any real loss of ground for Social Network.


Original Screenplay: 1) THE KING'S SPEECH, 2) The Kids Are All Right, 3) ANOTHER YEAR, 4) Inception, 5) Blue Valentine

The Next Five: How Do You Know, The Fighter, BLACK SWAN, Made in Dagenham, Somewhere

Hot: KING'S SPEECH, How Do You Know, and Blue Valentine

Not: BLACK SWAN, Somewhere

Comment: James Brook's new film (How Do You Know) makes its first appearance on the OC...it's a real joker in the deck...will we see it elsewhere in the next update? Rudd, Witherspoon, Nicholson???


And the numbers...if the above was correct...


Nominations in the Big 8 categories:

THE KING'S SPEECH-6

127 HOURS, True Grit, The Kids Are All Right-4

The Social Network, Inception, ANOTHER YEAR, BLACK SWAN, The Fighter-3

Toy Story 3, Winter's Bone, Rabbit Hole, Blue Valentine-2


Combined "nominations" and "near nominations":

THE KING'S SPEECH, The Social Network, True Grit, The Fighter and The Kids Are All Right-6

127 HOURS, Inception, ANOTHER YEAR, BLACK SWAN, Winter's Bone, THE WAY BACK, Rabbit Hole-4

Get Low, Blue Valentine, Made in Dagenham-3

Fair Game, Love and Other Drugs, The Town, Toy Story 3-2


Telluride "nominations"- 17... "near nominations"- 6...


And, of course, the ritual reminder...there will be other nominations for Telluride films in technical categories, documentary categories and perhaps even animation...


Back around Thanksgiving!





Tuesday, October 19, 2010

The OC #2


Post-Toronto and half way through October, here is the updated Oscar Clearinghouse.






This issue uses the source material from: The Envelope, Awards Daily, In Contention, Gurus of Gold, Scott Feinberg, CinemaSight, The Film Experience and Film Misery






Telluride Pics in CAPS AND BOLD.






Best Picture: 1) The Social Network, 2) THE KING'S SPEECH, 3) Toy Story 3 4, ) Inception, 5) True Grit, 6) 127 HOURS, 7) The Kids Are All Right, 8) ANOTHER YEAR, 9) The Fighter, 10) BLACK SWAN.



The Next Five: Hereafter, Fair Game, Winter's Bone, Secretariat and Rabbit Hole.



Dropping Out: Made in Dagenham, The Way Back



HOT: Toy Story 3, True Grit, Secretariat and Rabbit Hole



COLD: 127 Hours, The Kids Are All Right



COMMENT: Man, what a good trailer can do. This list (and several others on the Clearinghouse this time around) shows that True Grit is Red Hot! And one assumes it's a result of the release of its teaser and theatrical trailers...and they are good. Rabbit Hole is finally getting some heat after its generally warm reception at Toronto. I'm going to say right now that the Best Picture race is between four films: Social Network, King's Speech, True Grit and Inception.






Best Director: 1) David Fincher/Social Network, 2) TOM HOOPER/KING'S SPEECH, 3) DANNY BOYLE/127 HOURS, 4) MIKE LEIGH/ANOTHER YEAR, 5) Christopher Nolan/Inception.



The Next Five: Coens/True Grit, Linda Cholodenko/Kids Are All Right, David O. Russell/The Fighter, DARREN ARONOFSKY/BLACK SWAN, Doug Liman/Fair Game



Dropping Out: John Cameron Mitchell/Rabbit Hole, PETER WEIR/THE WAY BACK



Hot: Coens



Cold: Russell



Comment: I think Boyle and Leigh are shaky in this category and that Fincher, Hooper and Nolan are probable locks even this far out. I'd almost bet money on the Coens getting a nomination if True Grit is half as good as I think it's going to be. So, either Leigh or Boyle would be the one's to suffer.






Best Actress: 1) Annette Bening/Kids Are All Right, 2) NATALIE PORTMAN/BLACK SWAN, 3) LESLEY MANVILLE/ANOTHER YEAR, 4) Nicole Kidman/Rabbit Hole, 5) Jennifer Lawrence/Winter's Bone



Next Five: Julianne Moore/Kids, Anne Hathaway/Love and Other Drugs, Michelle Williams/Blue Valentine, Naomi Watts/Fair Game, Sally Hawkins/Dagenham



Dropping Off: None



Hot: Julianne Moore



Cold: Hawkins



Comment: A real charge from Moore to snag a second best acting nom for Kids...




Best Actor: 1) COLIN FIRTH/KING'S SPEECH, 2) Jeff Bridges/True Grit, 3) JAMES FRANCO/127 HRS., 4) Robert Duvall/Get Low, 5) Jesse Eisenberg/Social Network.


Next Five: Ryan Gosling/Blue Valentine, JAVIER BARDEM/BIUTIFUL, Paul Giamatti/Barney's Version, Mark Wahlberg/The Fighter, Sean Penn/Fair Game.


Dropping Out: None


Hot: Jeff Bridges


Not: Mark Wahlberg


Comment: Bridges is a BIG beneficiary of the burgeoning True Grit surge.




Best Supporting Actress: 1) Diane Weist/Rabbit Hole, 2) HELENA BONHAM CARTER/KING'S SPEECH, 3) Miranda Richardson/Made in Dagenham, 4) Melissa Leo/The Fighter, 5) Hailee Stienfeld/True Grit.


Next Five: Elle Fanning/Somewhere, Jacki Weaver/Animal Kingdom, Amy Adams/ The Fighter, BARBARA HERSHEY/BLACK SWAN, Rebecca Hall/The Town.


Dropping Out: Sissy Spacek


Hot: Diane Weist and Rebecca Hall


Not: Melissa Leo and Jacki Weaver


Comment: Diane Weist has gone from barely in the nominee section all the way to the top of this category after the reception for Rabbit Hole following Toronto.




Best Supporting Actor: 1) GEOFFREY RUSH/KING'S SPEECH, 2) Christian Bale/The Fighter, 3) Mark Ruffalo/Kids Are All Right, 4) Andrew Garfield/The Social Network, 5) ED HARRIS/THE WAY BACK.


Next Five: Sam Rockwell/Conviction, Justin Timberlake/The Social Network, James Brolin/True Grit, Matt Damon/True Grit, VINCENT CASSEL/BLACK SWAN.


Dropping Out: Bill Murray and Dustin Hoffman


Hot: Ed Harris and Matt Damon


Not: Well...Murray and Hoffman


Comment: I won't be surprised if both Brolin and Damon continue to move up the list if the True Grit groundswell continues. I also think Rush is the only lock at this point in this category.




Best Adapted Screenplay: 1) The Social Network, 2) Toy Story 3, 3) Winter's Bone, 4) Love and Other Drugs, 5) True Grit


Next Five: Rabbit Hole, THE WAY BACK, 127 HOURS, Miral, The Town.


Dropping Out: How to Train Your Dragon

Hot: True Grit

Not: Rabbit Hole

Comment: True Grit moving like gangbusters in this category too.


Best Original Screenplay: 1) ANOTHER YEAR, 2) The Kids Are All Right, 3) THE KING'S SPEECH, 4) Inception, 5) The Fighter

Next Five: BLACK SWAN, Somewhere, And 4 tied at the next spots: THE ILLUSIONIST, How Do You Know, Made in Dagenham, and Hereafter

Dropping Out: Blue Valentine

Hot: BLACK SWAN

Not: Nada

Comment: The only surprise to me here is that King's Speech isn't sitting at the #1 spot.


The Numbers: If the nominations were announced today and these picks were accurate...


Big Eight Noms:

THE KING'S SPEECH 6,

The Social Network 5,

True Grit, Kids Are All Right, ANOTHER YEAR 4,

127 HOURS, Inception, The Fighter 3

Toy Story 3, BLACK SWAN, Winter's Bone, Rabbit Hole 2


Noms and Near Noms added together:

True Grit 7

KING'S SPEECH, Social Network, Kids Are All Right, The Fighter, BLACK SWAN 6

127 HOURS, Fair Game, ANOTHER YEAR, Rabbit Hole 4


Telluride Noms Total 16 plus another 8 near noms
















Wednesday, October 6, 2010

The Way Back to the Oscars?

Variety_Film reports that:
Newmarket sets date for Telluride Film Fetival pick 'The Way Back': Film News: Peter Weir's prison drama set for awards-qualifying run -- Newmarke... http://bit.ly/aH2Cwy

Sunday, September 26, 2010

The Oscar Clearinghouse #1 for 2010




Well...










We're post-Telluride, post-Venice and post-Toronto...it's time!





Here's your first look at The Oscar Clearinghouse for 2010. The focus from now until Oscar night is to track what's hot and what's not and, most importantly, how the films from Telluride #37 are playing in the sweepstakes for Oscar success. We try to do that by combining and assessing the Oscar prognostication work done through traditional and internet media. As we start this year's analysis, we utilized the predictions already out there from the following:










Film Misery





Scott Feinberg





Gurus of Gold at Movie City News





The Envelope from the LA Times





InContention.com





Film Experience










We'll add others as the Oscar season picks up speed.










As always, Telluride films will be in CAPS and in BOLD.










Best Picture:





The second year for ten nominees and here are your leaders at this point: 1) The Social Network, 2) THE KING'S SPEECH, 3) 127 HOURS, 4) The Kids Are Allright, 5) Inception, 6) Toy Story 3, 7) ANOTHER YEAR, 8) True Grit, 9) The Fighter, 10) BLACK SWAN.





And the next five lurking are: Made in Dagenham, Hereafter, Fair Game, Winter's Bone and THE WAY BACK.










Comment: The separation between Social Network and King's Speech is negligible. I was a bit surprised that Rabbit Hole didn't get enough juice to be on the initial list of 15. I expect that will change. I was also a little surprised that Scorsese's Shutter Island got no mention.










Best Director: 1) David Fincher/The Social Network, 2) MIKE LEIGH/ANOTHER YEAR, 3) DANNY BOYLE/127 HOURS, 4) TOM HOOPER/THE KING'S SPEECH, 5) David O. Russell/The Fighter.





The next five (well six, actually): Christopher Nolan/Inception, Lisa Cholodenko/Kids Are Allright, DARREN ARONOFSKY/BLACK SWAN, The Coen Brothers/True Grit, John Cameron Mitchell/Rabbit Hole, PETER WEIR/THE WAY BACK.










Comment: The Social Network and The King's Speech may be neck and neck in the Best Picture category but Fincher has a commanding early lead on the field for Best Director. Personally, I suspect that we'll eventually see Nolan jump into the top 5 and Russell fall.










Best Actress: 1) Annette Bening/The Kids Are Allright, 2) NATALIE PORTMAN/BLACK SWAN, 3) LESLEY MANNVILLE/ANOTHER YEAR, 4) Nicole Kidman/Rabbit Hole, 5) Sally Hawkins/Made in Dagenham




The next five: Jennifer Lawrence/Winter's Bone, Anne Hathaway/Love and Other Drugs, Michelle Williams/Blue Valentine, Julianne Moore/The Kids Are Allright, Naomi Watts/Fair Game.








Comment: It seems that the "Kids Are Allright" folks have opted to place both Bening and Moore in the lead category. I don't know if that's honesty, reflecting the relative equal size of the roles or if they really think they've got a shot to land 2 Best Actress noms from the same film. Bening seems a lock as does Portman. The other three spots...up for grabs.








Best Actor: 1) COLIN FIRTH/THE KING'S SPEECH, 2) JAMES FRANCO/127 HOURS, 3) Robert Duvall/Get Low, 4) Jesse Eisenburg/The Social Network, 5) (tie) Jeff Bridges/True Grit and Mark Wahlberg/The Fighter.




The next four: Paul Giamatti/Barney's Version, JAVIER BARDEM/BIUTIFUL, Ryan Gosling/Blue Valentine, Sean Penn/Fair Game.








Comment: Firth is a solid first. Franco also seems a near lock. I'm a little surprised that Eisenberg is in the top 5...even though the hype for Social Network is huge.








Best Supporting Actress: 1) Melissa Leo/The Fighter, 2) HELENA BONHAM CARTER/THE KING'S SPEECH, 3) Melinda Richardson/Made in Dagenham, 4) Jacki Weaver/Animal Kingdom, 5) Dianne Weist/Rabbit Hole




The next five: Hailee Steinfeld/True Grit, Elle Fanning/Somewhere, Sissy Spacek/Get Low, Amy Adams/The Fighter, BARBARA HERSHEY/BLACK SWAN.








Comment: My surprise here is that there isn't any love for Marion Cotillard in Inception. She gets the best acting moments in what is one of the biggest films of the year and an almost certain best picture nominee. I would have thought that she might be the lone acting aspirant from that film...but nary a breath of that from any of our predictors. This may be the most competitive race of them all.








Best Supporting Actor: 1) Christian Bale/The Fighter, 2) GEOFFREY RUSH/THE KING'S SPEECH, 3) Mark Ruffalo/The Kids Are Allright, 4) Andrew Garfield/The Social Network, 5) Justin Timberlake/The Social Network




The next six: Bill Murray/Get Low, Sam Rockwell/Conviction, ED HARRIS/THE WAY BACK, Josh Brolin/True Grit, Dustin Hoffman/Barney's Version and VINCENT CASSEL/BLACK SWAN.








Comment: Like Supporting Actress, this is a very competitive category...at least right now. I think Rush is a lock despite sitting at #2 behind Bale...who I don't think IS a lock at this point. Social Network would pull off quite the coup if it can snag noms for both Garfield and Timberlake. Last note here...I'm campaigning for Colin Farrell from The Way Back!








Original Screenplay: 1) The Kids Are Allright, 2) ANOTHER YEAR, 3) THE KING'S SPEECH, 4) The Fighter, 5) Inception




The next five: Hereafter, THE ILLUSIONIST, Toy Story 3, BLACK SWAN, Blue Valentine








Comment: I'm wondering if The Illusionist is really an "original" script since it's a Tati script that was intended to be live action the Sylvain Chomet has made as an animated film.








Best Adapted Screenplay: 1) The Social Network, 2) Rabbit Hole, 3) Toy Story 3, 4) Winter's Bone, 5) Love and Other Drugs




The next six: 127 HOURS, THE WAY BACK, Miral, True Grit, The Town, How to Train Your Dragon.








Comment: If the heat continues to build for 127 Hours, it will likely slip up the ladder here.








AND THE NUMBERS:




If the nominees for the Big Eight categories were announced today and these prognosticators were 100% correct there would be:




6 Nominations each for The Social Network, The King's Speech and The Fighter.




4 apiece for Another Year, True Grit, 127 Hours and The Kids Are Allright




3 for Toy Story 3.








When combined with potential nominations the leader becomes True Grit with 7 noms and potentials. Social Network and King's Speech stay at 6 noms and are joined by: The Fighter, The Kids Are Allright and Black Swan each with a total of 6 noms or potentials. Others with 4 noms and/or potentials are: 127 Hours, Toy Story 3, and The Way Back.








As of this posting Telluride films account for 15 nominations and 11 potentials in these Big Eight categories. And of course there are a bunch more nominations to be had in the other categories as well as Foreign and Documentary. I think it's very likely that Telluride will have its largest Oscar presence in the three years I've been doing the blog.








Additionally, since this is the first edition of the Clearinghouse for this year, it's difficult to tell which films have momentum and which are losing momentum...that being said, I' ll take a stab: I am sensing that The Fighter is losing ground, Hereafter may never get off the ground in the Oscar derby and True Grit may be bigger than we all know at this point. Of course, that could all be wildly wrong.








I'll be back soon with an update.

Thursday, September 16, 2010

TFF #37 and Our Crystal Ball


We started this year's countdown and prognostications for TFF #37 back during the week of Mar. 16-23. At that time we listed a couple of dozen possibilities and really focused on 16 of those. Of those initial lists 5 ended up at Telluride: "127 Hours'" "Biutiful'" "Black Swan," "Never Let Me Go," and "Another Year". Some of them got bumped to 2011..."The Descendants," "The Tree of Life," "The Eagle (of the Ninth)." Some were released during the summer: "Chloe," and "Love Ranch." But we're feeling pretty good that we had 5 of Telluride's 24 features on our very first list of possibles.




Prior to Cannes in May, we further underlined "Biutiful" and"Another Year" and we added "Tamara Drewe" and "The Princess of Montpensier." Of course we also highlighted: "On Tour," "Fair Game," "You, My Joy," "Uncle Boonmee," "Blue Valentine," Godard's "Socialism," "You Will Meet a Tall Dark Stranger," and Aurora." And we overlooked "Poetry," Of Gods and Men" and "Inside Job."




Post Cannes we got "Poetry" and "Of Gods and Men" into the conversation. And despite its non-inclusion at Cannes, we continued to speculate the Julian Schnabel"s "Miral" would be part of the Telluride lineup.




Late July we got "The Way Back" and "The King's Speech on our first speculative list and we began making the transition from speculation to reportage as we tracked down tidbits from various media...including the first hints beyond our own speculation that we might see "Never Let Me Go."




And by the time we got to the middle of August, with Jay A. Fernandez's Hollywood Reporter story, we were getting a really good bead on the TFF #37 playlist.




All in all we feel pretty smug about the quality of our guesswork and information gathering for this year. Of course, we didn't get it all exactly right...we missed some that we might have gotten and included things that never showed....Really, I'd like to know the behind the scenes story on Schnabel's "Miral" because I was 100% convinced we would see it.




Now, as we have for the past couple of years, we will morph this into a clearinghouse for Oscar info and speculation centered on the films that played at Telluride. We'll be up with our first real look at that sometime in the next ten days or so as the dust settles following Toronto's fest. But just as a quick overview...Telluride may have its largest Oscar presence ever this year..."The King's Speech," "Black Swan," "127 Hours," "Inside Job," and others could swell Telluride connected film Oscar nominations past a cumulative total of 30...which would be impressive indeed.




Thanks to those who actually read the blog in the run-up to T-ride this year. If the counts can be believed, the numbers were surprisingly large this year and it looks as if THIS BLOG IS NOW THE MOST REFERENCED BLOG CONCERNING THE TELLURIDE FILM FESTIVAL...which blows my mind. And that scares me a little.


Hope you continue to drop in over the next few months and then after the Oscars...next spring...we'll start it all up again (actually we've already begun speculation for TFF #38..."The Tree of Life" and Jason Reitman's Diablo Cody penned, "Young Adult").

Thursday, September 9, 2010

TFF 37 Post Mortem


Still recovering. It's a looooong drive back to the Oklahoma Panhandle from southwest Colorado.


We had a terrific time in Telluride. I got in 11 films...and , of course, didn't see everything I wanted to see. Still saw some great stuff...and a couple of films I wasn't all that impressed with.


Here's the rundown of the films and a couple of other notes...


"Black Swan"...Portman is terrific. There was a lot of Oscar speculation on her behalf during the weekend...and with good reason. Aronofsky is brash and bold. He's painting with big, broad strokes (no surprise there). The buzz seemed to be fairly strong and largely positive. For me, the film seemed like it was going through the motions for the first two acts...but then Aronofsky really starts playing with the Portman character in terms of reality/surreality...and it gets pretty interesting from that point on. There was also some speculation that it could get into the Best Picture race...but I don't know that it's going to play all that well with older members of the Academy...it's pretty violent and the lesbian sex scene between Portman and Mila Kunis could also curb some voters enthusiasm. ***


"127 Hours"...James Franco is fantastic as Aron Ralston and Danny Boyle is very creative in bringing a really static story to life and doing so in a way so that our attention is always commanded by the screen. Franco seems like a sure Oscar bet...the film was also getting good buzz as a possible Best Picture contender. I thought it was really good, but not great. Franco is very good and Boyle's direction is impressive. That being said, for me...it's no Slumdog and if I heard a knock on it this weekend it was about the gruesomeness of the arm amputation and that stylistically Boyle seemed to use too many of the same tricks that he employed in Slumdog. ***


"Never Let Me Go"...this seemed to be the most polarizing film of the weekend. People in line seemed to either love it or hate it. Oddly, I was somewhere in the middle which was frustrating, because it was pretty high on my list to see. It seemed to me that Romanek aimed for a cool detached telling of the story so as to underscore the control over the lives of the main characters and the inevitable conclusion of their existence. And while that's a valid choice, it also seemed to leach away much of a chance that the actors had many places to go. It also seems to me that that choice makes it a real challenge for the audience to care very much about what happens to these people. Finally, with the exception of Carey Mulligan, I don't think that Andrew Garfield or Keira Knightley have the chops or maturity to do this kind of subtlety and pull it off. And even Mulligan is forced to be pretty one note.**


"Biutiful"...here I seemed to be the odd man out...I'm a moderate fan of Inarritu's previous work. I liked Babel quite a lot. And I like Bardem quite a bit too...and I know that he co-won Best Actor at Cannes for this... but...this just didn't work for me (and I gather that the reviews were pretty split in Cannes). It seemed to me that his film hit every possible cliche in the display of Bardem's suffering till he dies. I thought it telegraphed almost every single plot development and that Bardem was awfully one note in his performance. But, hey, that's just me...most of the rest of the folks I had conversation with thought it was good and that Bardem was fantastic...**



"The King's Speech"...by now, I'm sure that you've heard that this was the biggest buzz coming out of the fest. And I hate to be a "me-tooer"...but this is a really, really good, maybe great film. Colin Firth and Geoffrey Rush are stunningly good. Oscar noms for both are going to happen. Helena Bonham Carter also seems to be getting some attention for Supporting Actress...though it's not nearly as showy a role as the two male leads. Tom Hooper's direction is impressive. Expect noms for him and costuming as well as screenplay at a minimum...This is the film that has the heat that Juno, Slumdog and Up in the Air had coming out of Telluride each of the past few years.****



My second favorite film of the weekend was Mike Leigh's "Another Year." I've never been a huge Leigh fan, but this is a fine, fine piece of work. It looks at a year in the lives of an older couple and their orbit of friends and relatives. Jim Broadbent and Ruth Sheen are graceful and lovely as the couple at the center of the story. I understand that it got a really warm reception at Cannes and that a lot of the critic types were surprised it didn't win any prize...I'd like to think it has a shot at one of the ten Best Picture slots and director and screenplay nods as well. Everyone seems to think Lesley Manville will play for a Best Actress nom, although she might more properly be considered Supporting.***1/2



"The Way Back"...Peter Weir's story of a 4000 mile trek of a group escaping from a Soviet gulag in 1940. They walked out. It's stirring, well made, well acted...Beautiful and purportedly shot for only $29 million. Jim Sturgess is the lead and is good. Ed Harris is in support and is really good and Colin Farrell is fantastic. One of the best things he's ever done. After his little turn last year in "Crazy Heart" and this, I'm beginning to think he's turning into a pretty fine actor. Some Oscar buzz for this last weekend...but I think it got really squeezed out of the buzz because of all the hoopla for King's Speech, Black Swan and 127 Hours.***


"The Illusionist"...Sylvain Chomet's follow up to "The Triplets of Belleville"...beautifully done. It was delightful. Often a perfect example of words over rated as method of communication. It's clever, warm, funny and touching. ***1/2


"Tamara Drewe"...a lot of people on line really loved this comedy from Stephen Frears...I liked it, didn't love it. It's a mildly amusing sex comedy and nothing more. Bill Camp steals the movie from Gemma Arterton (as the title character) as an American writer struggling to finish his opus on Thomas Hardy.**1/2



"Tabloid"...Errol Morris' doc about...well...Joyce McKinney and her "love" for a young Mormon in the 1960's that led to charges of kidnapping and rape...her rape of the young man???? Truth IS stranger than fiction...repeatedly. And the film is hysterical in the bargain. Morris continually finds ways to make your jaw drop and to elicit uproarious laughter. Recommended!***



Finally from South Korea.."Poetry" This won the screenplay award at Cannes. It's too long and could use some judicious editing. Jeong-hee Yoon is lovely as the grandmother trying to find some beauty in her existence and dealing with and grandson that is less than stellar.**1/2


Additional notes:I was surprised that Julian Schnabel's "Miral" didn't show. I was sure it would. And people that are a lot smarter than I am about this stuff had said that it would.


I heard that Kelly Reichardt's "Meek's Cutoff" starring Michelle Williams just missed being a part of the festival lineup; that they just ran out of places to put stuff in the program. Too bad, I would have liked to have seen it since the early word is really positive and I really like Michelle Williams.



I also heard good things about "Inside Job'" "Incendies" and "Precious Life."



I'll do a comparative wrap-up of the success of this Blog's prognostications in the next couple of days. Just a quick note: It was pretty good this year!


And finally, I don't think it was 2007 (which, for me, is the measure of the quality of the fest...Juno, Into the Wild, Diving Bell, Persepolis, The Savages, Band's Visit and more)...but it certainly may have been the 2nd best overall of the five that I have attended.



Now, as we have for the past couple of years, this blog will morph into an awards season tracker for the films that played at TFF #37. From the early buzz, it seems that Telluride may play it's biggest role in Oscar night in many a year...maybe its biggest ever.





And as always...I can't wait till next year and TFF 38!

Sunday, September 5, 2010

A Good Day

Danny Boyle, Aron Ralston and James Franco of "127 Hours"


Three films today and all of them good but not great.




Started the day with "Poetry" from Korean film director Lee Chang Dong. "Poetry" won the Best Screenplay award at this year's Cannes Film Festival. It features Jeong-hee Yoon as a grandmother dealing with a troubled grandson who also has decided to write poetry. She's quite good. But the film clocks in at nearly 2 and 1/2 hours and felt like it could use some judicious editing. 2 and 1/2 stars.




Then: Peter Weir's "The Way Back" featuring Jim Sturgess, Ed Harris and Colin Farrell as three very different captives in a WWII era Soviet gulag who escape and walk their way to freedom. Based on a true story, the film does credit to the real people who made the 4,000 mile walk from Siberia to India. Sturgess is solid as the focal point of the film but Ed Harris (as you might expect) is outstanding. Matching Harris note for note is Farrell in a very nearly great performance. Couple this with his small supporting role in last year's "Crazy Heart" and you're beginning to see an actor maturing into something special. 3 stars!




And the capper on the day: Danny Boyle's "127 Hours." How do you follow a film that took the world by storm and won 8 Oscars (as Slumdog did)??? You film the true story of hiker Aron Ralston who, in order to save his life, amputated his own arm so that he could escape from a canyon in Utah in which he was trapped. James Franco plays Ralston and is onscreen 99% of the time. He's fantastic. The Oscar buzz for him started today here in Colorado. "127 Hours" is graphic and harrowing and the best thing I've seen here in Telluride so far this year. 3 stars!!!But....




Tomorrow has 5 films scheduled that I'm planning to get to including Innaritu"s "Biutiful" with Javier Bardem (and Bardem is supposed to be great), Darren Aronofsky's "Black Swan" which has just taken the Venice Film Fest by storm and may get some Oscar notice for Natalie Portman and Colin Firth and Geoffrey Rush in Tom Hooper's "The King's Speech" which seems to be the film getting the best buzz here this year.




Then there's Monday which will start with Mike Leigh's "Another Year" and will also almost certainly include the sneak of Julian Schnabel's "Miral." And the Apparition people are still very tight lipped about anything concerning"Tree of Life." But I will say I haven't personally seen Mr. Pitt and haven't actually met someone who has seen him with their own eyeballs.

Friday, September 3, 2010

The Calm Before...




Taking the opportunity to rest after a late night last night and what will probably be another one tonight. Opted not to see Patron's Special Screening of "Chico and Rita" The plan, for now is to hit the Opening Night Feed on Colorado Ave. then get in Stephen Frears "Tamara Drewe" and Mark Romanek's "Never Let Me Go" tonight.




Tomorrow will probably include Peter Weir's "The Way Back." That will depend (as so much of the rest of the weekend will) on the TBAs...




And a quick shout out to two wonderful Kentuckians we met this morning Jim and Kay Park...lovely people and big film fans!

Thursday, September 2, 2010

Tributes for TFF #37

Tributees this year: Colin Firth, Claudia Cardinale and Aussie director Peter Weir.

3 Hours Til Go Time

"Official" release of Telluride lineup is starting to be revealed. Kris Tapley of Incontention.com tweets:

From: @kristapleySent: Sep 2, 2010 12:34p
Confirmed for Telluride: The Way Back, Never Let Me Go, Biutiful, King's Speech, Illusionist, Carlos, Another Year, Tamara Drewe, Tabloid.

Wednesday, September 1, 2010

The Bus Pulls Out in 28 Hours




Natalie Portman in "Black Swan and Jim Sturgess in "The Way Back."
We're very close to headin' west. Contacted all my Telluride peeps and started the process of loading the car. Buzzing with excitement!




The latest news is continuing references that both "Black Swan" and "The Way Back" will be part of the Telluride film program this weekend. YES...




So...as an academic exercise...let's ask the question, "WHO" will be at Telluride this weekend as opposed to what films...because, of course, I am hopelessly starstruck.




The following are some of the most anticipated films that have been bandied about as being on Telluride's list this year, their directors (who are almost always at Telluride for at least part of the weekend) and the main talent associated with the film (who may or may not be there...but it would be cool if they were).




"127 Hours" Dir: Danny Boyle. Talent: James Franco...note...wouldn't surprise me to see the actual hiker Aron Ralston there.




"Black Swan" Dir: Darren Aronofsky. Talent: Natalie Portman (Oscar Buzz?), Mila Kunis, Vincent Cassel.




"Miral" Dir: Julian Schnabel. Talent: Frieda Pinto, Willem Dafoe.




"Never Let Me Go" Dir: Mark Romanek. Talent: Carey Mulligan, Andrew Garfield, Keira Knightley.




"The Way Back" Dir: Peter Weir. Talent: Colin Farrell, Ed Harris, Jim Sturgess.




"The King's Speech" Dir: Tom Hooper. Talent: Colin Firth (Osar Buzz), Geoffrey Rush (Oscar Buzz), Helena Bonham Carter




"Biutiful" Dir: Alejandro Gonzalez Innaritu. Talent: Javier Bardem (Oscar Buzz) (and wouldn't it be cool if past TFF tributee and current Mrs. Bardem...Penelope Cruz...tagged along???)






"Another Year" Dir: Mike Leigh. Talent: Jim Broadbent, Lesley Manville (Oscar Buzz).






"Tamara Drewe" Dir: Stephen Frears. Talent: Gemma Arterton






Makes your head swim a little, doesn't it? So....LOAD THE BUS..Ok, my Toyota...












Friday, August 27, 2010

One Week To Go


Colin Firth in "The King's Speech"



Anne Thompson at Indiewire (and on her way to the Venice Film Fest) essentially confirms "127 Hours," "Black Swan," Miral," "The King's Speech'" and "Never Let Me Go" on the list for TFF #37.


Those 5 would potentially make a great Telluride Film Festival all on their own.


Add to that the tantalizing hint this morning from Australia and our guess that we might see Peter Weir's "The Way Back"...could be phenomenal.