And Finally, It's Oscar Time

Labor Day weekend 2010 in the San Juans of southwest Colorado seems like a long, long time ago. Since our incredible experience at the 37th Telluride Film Festival, Michael's Telluride Film Blog/The Oscar Clearinghouse has been tracking the possible outcomes for tonight's Oscar presentation and now it's time for the final pre-Oscar run-down of what we expect to happen after crunching numbers from Movie City News' The Guru's of Gold, Incontention.com, Scott Feinberg, Awards Daily, Awards Circuit, The Gold Derby.Com and Dave Karger at Entertainment Weekly. In all 24 categories (with TFF #37 in CAPS AND BOLD). And the Oscar will go to:

(Absolutely no real number crunching on these first three categories, so based on a limited range of "expert" opinion)

Short Doc: Killing in the Name

Short Animated: Madagascar: A Journey Diary

Short Live Action: GOD OF LOVE

Sound Mixing: The OC says: Inception...

Sound Editing: The OC says: Inception...

Visual Effects: The OC says: Inception...

Makeup: The OC says: The Wolfman...

And I have to agree.

Original Score: The OC says: Alexandre Desplat, THE KING'S SPEECH...

Original Song: The OC says: Randy Newman, "We Belong Together" from Toy Story 3...

Again, I agree that this is what will happen, but, you could see The OC wrong in both of these categories pretty easily. In Score, there is still significant feeling for The Social Network and Inception. And in the Best Song category, you can find supporters in the Oscar prediction community for any of the four nominated songs.

Foreign Film: The OC says: In a Better World/Denmark

And I will agree...but it is a tiny, tiny favorite with INCENDIES/Canada and BIUTIFUL/Mexico very, very close.

Documentary: The OC says: INSIDE JOB...

Again, I'm buying this, but it's also a really tight category. Serious heat exists for the art doc Exit Through the Gift Shop (and the attendant curiosity as to what Banksy might try in accepting...or declining...or both? Undoubtedly it would be entertaining)...and just as it is for Best Song, each of the five nominees has some serious Oscar prognosticators on its side.

Animated Film: The OC (and everyone on the planet that tries to divine this stuff) says: Toy Story 3...

Uh...Yes.

Costume: The OC says: Alice in Wonderland...

THE KING'S SPEECH is a close second in our analysis, and it's my actual pick...my first divergence from The OC.

Art Direction: The OC says:THE KING'S SPEECH...

Yes. But watch out for Alice or Inception...they also have a lot of support here.

Film Editing: The OC says: The Social Network...

I'm going to agree, but you can make a good case for any of the other four nominees and if it turns into a TKS Sweep...who knows?

Cinematography: The OC says: Roger Deakins/True Grit...

Again...yes. Deakins should finally win an Oscar for his great camera work. And it was impressive in True Grit. Possible spoiler would be Wally Pfister for Inception.

THE BIG EIGHT CATEGORIES:

Adapted Screenplay: The OC says: Aaron Sorkin/The Social Network...

Not much doubt here.

Original Screenplay: The OC says: David Seidler/THE KING'S SPEECH...

Close to a lock

Supporting Actor: The OC says: Christian Bale/The Fighter...

Again, close to a lock...except if TKS is in sweep mode, which could force Geoffrey Rush into an acceptance speech.

Supporting Actress: The OC says: Melissa Leo/The Fighter...

The predictors have come back around to Leo after a brief stretch were she was perceived as having lost some momentum. But Leo has bounced back in the last ten days in the estimation of most Oscar pundits. Still, I'm going to buck The Clearinghouse. I'm going with Hailee Steinfeld in True Grit. And, as you might expect, here's the added caveat that Helena Bonham Carter could surprise here if the TKS sweep is more of a tsunami.

Actress: The OC says: Natalie Portman/BLACK SWAN...

Yes. And she should win it too. There's still some Oscar picker love for Annette Bening, but I don't think that it's going to happen for her tonight.

Actor: The OC says: Colin Firth/THE KING'S SPEECH.

Ummm...if Firth doesn't win, then the Academy needs to start looking for new accountants for the Oscars...because he only loses if they count it wrong or bribery is involved.

Director: Maybe this has become the hottest race of the night. Big support for a Best Picture/Best Director split in the Oscar pundit club. Also significant support for the notion that if a film is the Best Picture, then it's Director has to have been the best as well...and most years that is the path that Oscar follows.

The OC says: David Fincher/The Social Network...

I say: Tom Hooper/THE KING'S SPEECH

BEST PICTURE: THE OC SAYS: THE KING'S SPEECH...

And I agree.

If the OC is right:

THE KING'S SPEECH-5

The Social Network-3

Inception-3

The Fighter-2

Toy Story 3-2

One each for: BLACK SWAN, INSIDE JOB, True Grit, The Wolfman, Alice in Wonderland, and In a Better World.

TFF #37 total: 7 (maybe up to 2 more depending on the outcome in Short Film categories)

If I'm right:

THE KING'S SPEECH-7

Inception-3

True Grit-2

Toy Story 3-2

The Social Network-2

One each for: BLACK SWAN, INSIDE JOB, The Fighter, The Wolfman, In a Better World

TFF #37 total: 9 (and again, maybe a couple more in Short Films).

Comments anyone?

I'll be tweeting during the Oscar cast tonight if anyone is interested set your Twitter search for @Gort2 and follow me.

MTFB/The OC will have preliminary reaction tomorrow and more in depth response from my actual industry source types and Academy members Tuesday or Wednesday.

So, now, we wait.

Telluride Film #37, The OC, BAFTA and Oscar

The British Academy of Film and Television Arts named their 2011 winners two nights ago and, as you might expect, "The King's Speech" did very well. But there was a surprise or two along the way...

Here's the complete BAFTA run-down from Hollywood.com:

Best Film- The King’s Speech

Director - The Social Network - David Fincher

Leading Actor - Colin Firth - The King’s Speech

Leading Actress - Natalie Portman - Black Swan

Supporting Actor - Geoffrey Rush - The King’s Speech

Supporting Actress - Helena Bonham Carter - The King’s Speech

Adapted Screenplay- The Social Network - Aaron Sorkin

Original Screenplay - The King’s Speech - David Seidler

Animated Film - Toy Story 3 - Lee Unkrich

Outstanding British Film - The King’s Speech

Film Not In The English Language - The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo

Outstanding Debut By A British Writer, Director Or Producer - Four Lions - Chris Morris (Director/Writer)

Cinematography - True Grit - Roger Deakins

Editing - The Social Network - Angus Wall, Kirk Baxter

Production Design - Inception - Guy Hendrix Dyas, Larry Dias, Doug Mowat

Sound - Inception - Richard King, Lora Hirschberg, Gary A Rizzo, Ed Novick

Special Visual Effects - Inception - Chris Corbould, Paul Franklin, Andrew Lockley, Peter Bebb

Make Up & Hair - Alice In Wonderland - Valli O'Reilly, Paul Gooch

Original Music - The King’s Speech - Alexandre Desplat

Costume Design - Alice In Wonderland - Colleen Atwood

Short Film - Until The River Runs Red - Paul Wright, Poss Kondeatis

Short Animation - The Eagleman Stag - Michael Please

The Orange Wednesdays Rising Star Award (voted by the public) - Tom Hardy

Biggest surprise was that English director and TKS helmer Tom Hooper did NOT win Best Direction...David Fincher did for "The Social Network" in what was essentially an upset of the home team that was dominant in almost every other category.

It wasn't really a surprise that Geoffrey Rush won Supporting Actor but a bit of a surprise that Helena Bonham Carter did...even with the home field advantage she wasn't expected to win Supporting Actress.

Finally, the American Society of Cinematographers awarded its top prize a couple of nights ago to Wally Pfister for "Inception." That leads one to second guess the expected Oscar for Roger Deakins and "True Grit."

Coming tomorrow, The OC updates the Big 8 races...

The OC/How the Oscar Race Evolved

The Telluride Film Festival along with Toronto and Venice have become the unofficial start to the Oscar season each year. Consequently, the first serious attempts at Oscar prediction occur as those festivals come to an end in September.

In today's post we take a look back at what we thought would happen and contrast that with how it all came out when the nominations were announced last week. The Clearinghouse first was up on Sept. 26. And on that day, this is what we thought:

Best Picture: Already the field was pretty well established. 9 of the 10 of the eventual Best Pic nominees were on the list. Mike Leigh's "Another Year" was the film in the 7th position that eventually gave way to "Winter's Bone." "Bone"was lurking" as the 14th film on the list.

Best Director: Again, Mike Leigh and "Another Year" was on this list ( at #2) riding a wave of positive critical response that had begun with its presentation at Cannes. And Danny Boyle's "127 Hours" was at #3. But Leigh and Boyle were supplanted by The Coen Brothers for "True Grit" (who are also popularly believed to have supplanted "Inception's" Christopher Nolan at the last minute) and by Darren Aronofsky foe "Black Swan." Both The Coens and Aronofsky were lurking in the next five at #9 and #8 respectively.

Best Actress: 3 actual nominees were on the first attempt-Bening and Portman were 1-2 and Kidman was at #4. Also on that first list-Lesley Manville and Sally Hawkins. Manville and Hawkins were replaced by the actual nominations of Jennifer Lawrence and Michelle Williams. On that first pass at prediction Lawrence was at #6 and Williams was at #8.

Best Actor: 4 of the 5 eventual nominees were on the first stab at prognostication. Firth, Franco, Eisenberg, and Bridges. Robert Duvall and Mark Wahlburg (who was tied with Bridges for the #5 spot) ended up on the outside looking in. They were replaced by Javier Bardem for "Biutiful." Bardem is believed to have bumped Duvall out at the very end of the nominating process. Bardem began on 9/26 at the # 8 spot.

Best Supporting Actress: The original guess had 3 of the 5 eventual nominees. Leo, Bonham Carter and Weaver. Also on that original list were Miranda Richardson for "Made in Dagenham" and Dianne Weist for Rabbit Hole. The other two actually nominated, of course, were Hailee Steinfeld and Amy Adams. Steinfeld was first set at the #6 spot while Adams began at #9.

Best Supporting Actor: Again a 3 of 5 category as the original prediction included actual nominees Bale, Rush and Ruffalo. Also included were Andrew Garfield and Justin Timberlake from "The Social Network." Actual nominees John Hawkes ("Winter's Bone') and Jeremy Renner ("The Town") were nowhere on the original list of ten possible nominees in what was the worst category for early prediction.

Best Adapted Screenplay: 3 for 5. The first guess got "The Social Network," "Toy Story 3, " and "Winter's Bone." "Rabbit Hole" and "Love and Other Drugs" which were on that first list failed to secure nominations. "127 Hours" (at #6 originally) and "True Grit" (at #9 originally) did.

Best Original Screenplay: 5 for 5. The first prediction had them all right..."Kids," King's," "Inception," "Another Year," and "The Fighter" were all listed as nominees on the very first chart.

For the Big 8 Categories the original Clearinghouse was 33 of 45 and of the 12 that were missing 10 were considered "possible." The only total whiffs were John Hawkes and Jeremy Renner in Supporting Actor.

Finally...the Oscar Finals Ballots went in the mail on Wednesday. The consensus at this moment would be the following:

Picture: "The King's Speech"

Director: Tom Hooper/King's (although there is still a chunk of support for the notion that Fincher could still win the thing)

Actress: Natalie Portman/Swan(still some feel for Annette Bening)

Actor: Colin Firth/TKS...not much doubt

Supporting Actress: Melissa Leo/Fighter is in the lead but Hailee Steinfeld is still regarded as having a chance.
Supporting Actor: Christian Bale/Fighter...again, not much doubt

Adapted Screenplay: Sorkin/"The Social Network" a prohibitive favorite.

Original Screenplay: David Seidler/"The King's Speech" also a prohibitive favorite.

Telluride Film #37/The OC and the SAG awards

Did you hear that door slamming 36 hours ago?

It was the door closing on anyone's thoughts that "THE KING'S SPEECH" might not be your Best Picture winner on Feb. 27.

After a week that had included surprise wins for TKS at The Producer's Guild and The Director's Guild, the SAG (Screen Actor's Guild) awards were thought to be the last chance to derail the juggernaut that was building. Some experts still holding to the notion the "The Fighter" or even "The Social Network" would prevail in the SAG"s version of"Best Picture" which is their Ensemble Award.

But when they opened the envelope, the TKS train just kept right on running.

Here (directly from the SAG website) are the winners from Sundays presentations:

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role: COLIN FIRTH / King George VI - "THE KING’S SPEECH" (The Weinstein Company)

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role:NATALIE PORTMAN / Nina Sayers – “BLACK SWAN” (Fox Searchlight Pictures)

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role: CHRISTIAN BALE / Dicky Eklund – “THE FIGHTER” (Paramount Pictures and Relativity Media)

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role: MELISSA LEO / Alice Ward – “THE FIGHTER” (Paramount Pictures and Relativity Media)

Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture: THE KING’S SPEECH (The Weinstein Company)

Firth and Bale were not surprises. Portman solidified her chances as she continues to best what was thought to be her close competitor, Annette Bening. And in the Female Supporting category, Melissa Leo's win makes her the front-runner in a category that was thought to be the most fluid of the 4 individual acting categories.

With the Ensemble win, all signs now point to TKS having a big night at the Oscars. We're talking Slumdog type numbers (Slumdog won 8 Academy Awards). You have to think that TKS wins Picture, probably Director (DGA), Actor and Original Screenplay. Costume, Art Direction and Score are also likely. Unlikely are Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress, Cinematography and Sound Mixing. Leaving Film Editing as its only chance for an 8th Oscar, and that's not terribly likely either.

Who benefits from the TKS mini-sweep? "Inception," which likely ends Oscar night with the second largest total number of Oscars and "The Fighter," which will be the only film with more than one acting winner.

Who gets hurt: well...you know.."The Social Network" which increasingly looks as if it will win one Oscar for Aaron Sorkin's script and that's all.

Next time on Michael's Telluride Film Blog/The Oscar Clearinghouse...we look at how the Oscar race mutated from September to now...and also, we'll start handicapping the Oscar categories for the winners on Feb. 27.

TFF #37/Oscar Clearinghouse and the DGA

Tom Hooper won the Director's Guild of America award late last night for Best Direction in 2010 for "The King's Speech." A whole host of Oscar watchers and critics are, again, dumbfounded this morning. Many thought that David Fincher would win for "The Social Network." Mmmmm....Nope.

The howling has been at a fever pitch for a week now. Beginning with the Producer's Guild Award to TKS last week and the "lead the pack" total of 12 nominations on Tuesday morning and culminating with last night's "surprise," The King's Speech" has been on a real roll...and it has the film "intelligentsia" up in arms..."How dare they?" has been the not-so-subtle refrain. Last night's DGA award, went the implicit narrative, will "restore some sanity" to the awards season. "Fincher gets the DGA," the thinking went, "because, surely, the directors 'get' the inherent superiority of "The Social Network." And that will also assure that the march of TKS to a Best Picture Oscar has been tempered and it's back to a real race...

And then, Boom!

A lot of people this week have been moaning that it's "Crash" beats "Brokeback" all over again...well...maybe.

But I'd submit the following:

1) I've been saying that TSN has been over-rated from the get go...I'd argue that it's overwhelming success with critics groups this past few months is at least as much a result of group-think and, really, a fear by some critics of an astonishing level of vitriol directed at any of them who dared to suggest that it might not actually be the year's best film.

2) As has been said in a lot of places, TSN certainly has a stronger appeal generationally to a younger demographic, and even older critics want to be regarded as hip...doesn't mean it's actually the best film or that it will win the Oscar...or should.

3) The "Crash/Brokeback" comparison stems, at least in part from the perception that the"Academy" is old and stodgy and scared of anything new or "controversial" and just doesn't "get it" which might explain why "Crash" won and probably does. But TSN "controversial"? Not really. And this week started with the PGA and ended with the DGA...NOT the Academy...I contend you can't use their results to paint that picture of the Academy..."the DGA doesn't get it?" Really???

4) Harvey Weinstein makes a salient point this week when he talks about "feeling" a movie...TSN celebrates its emotional distance...it's central to the film...how can anyone be surprised that that might not resonate with feeling, non-automatonic human beings?

5) Then there's this, maybe the majority of critics are just plain wrong...and make no mistake, I'm almost always on the side of critics...I live in a part of the world wherein the "celebration of film" is dwarfed by "what's on at the movies." Admittedly, I'm on the other side of the "generational" analysis mentioned above in point #2...and, further, I'm not even saying "The King's Speech" IS the year's Best Picture...I'd be inclined to vote for "True Grit." But, I have been pleased that the hubris of so many who had decided that it was all over months ago has been soundly shaken this past week.

"The King's Speech" opened (finally) in my town Friday night...of course, I saw it in September at Telluride...but I'm pleased to tell you that I'm going to go see it again tonight. I will be happy when it wins the Oscar for Best Picture in a month.

Telluride Film and The PGA/The Oscar Clearinghouse

PRODUCER'S GUILD PRODUCES A STUNNER!!!

Last night the Producers Guild of America awarded its awards for motion picture achievement and threw a big monkey wrench into the stately march of "The Social Network" to Oscar glory as the producers named producers Emile Sherman and Gareth Unwin of "THE KING'S SPEECH" the winner of its "Producer of the Year" award.

This morning all of the Oscar handicappers are abuzz with whether or to what extent this changes the race. Personally, I don't know if this portends the downfall of "The Social Network" (hope so, because I've been saying for months that it has been hugely over-rated), but I do know that it just made the next month a whole lot more interesting and that a race that many Oscar prognosticator's had asserted was done...isn't.

Also winning last night were "Toy Story 3" as animated film and "Waiting for Superman" as documentary.

Tomorrow The Oscar Clearinghouse will be up with its last evaluation of the Oscar race before the nominations are announced on Tuesday morning. Tuesday we'll post the breakdown of nominees and assess Telluride #37's impact on this year's Oscar race.

Stay tuned. This just got a whole lot more fun.

The Oscar Clearinghouse #7 (Telluride Film)- FINAL Pre-Nomination Edition

It's been four and a half months since the Telluride Film Festival concluded and after the long awards season march the Oscar nominations will be announced tomorrow morning. Here is the latest compilation of Oscar prognosticator's wisdom with our focus on the films that played as a part of the Telluride Film Festival in 2010. Categories have been limited to the appropriate number of nominees and three possible spoilers. TFF #37 films listed in CAPS AND BOLD.

Information collated from: Rope of Silicon, Incontention.com, Scott Feinberg, Dave Karger at Entertainment Weekly, The Gold Derby, Awards Daily, Film Misery, The Gurus of Gold from Movie City News, The Awards Circuit and Film Experience.

Best Picture: 8 films seem like locks: THE KING'S SPEECH, BLACK SWAN, The Social Network, The Fighter, The Kids Are All Right, Toy Story 3, Inception and True Grit. 127 HOURS has actually solidified its chances in the last couple of weeks making it a probable nominee. It looks like that the last spot is between The Town and Winter's Bone with Bone having the inside track. The only other films with a prayer of cracking the Ten Nominees are Blue Valentine and ANOTHER YEAR, but it's the slimmest of chances.

If I had a ballot: See my top ten below. Suffice it to say (as I have been) that "The Social Network," "Toy Story 3," and "The Kids Are All Right" are over-rated.

Best Director: David Fincher/The Social Network and David O. Russell/The Fighter appear to be locks with TOM HOOPER/THE KING'S SPEECH, DARREN ARONOFSKY/BLACK SWAN and Christopher Nolan/Inception looking very much like the other three nominees. If there is a surprise it would be (In order of likelihood) The Coen Brothers/True Grit, DANNY BOYLE/127 HOURS or MIKE LEIGH/ANOTHER YEAR.

If I had a ballot: Coens in and Russell OR Fincher out.

Best Actress: NATALIE PORTMAN/BLACK SWAN and Annette Bening/The Kids Are All Right have been locks for months. Jennifer Lawrence/Winter's Bone appears to have moved into that status as of the last two weeks. The other two spots look to go Nicole Kidman/Rabbit Hole and Michelle Williams/Blue Valentine. Three women who could intrude (in order of their chances) are: LESLEY MANVILLE/ANOTHER YEAR, Julianne Moore/The Kids Are All Right or a late charging Hilary Swank/Conviction.

If I had a ballot: Don't know that I'd do much different here...maybe move Manville to supporting, but that category is already filled with great work.

Best Actor: Locks: COLIN FIRTH/THE KING'S SPEECH, JAMES FRANCO/127 HOURS. Very Likely the other three are: Robert Duvall/Get Low, Jeff Bridges/True Grit and Jesse Eisenberg/The Social Network. Realistically, if a surprise occurs it would be Ryan Gosling/Blue Valentine, JAVIER BARDEM/BIUTIFUL or Mark Wahlberg/The Fighter.

If I had a ballot: Eisenberg out for Leonardo DiCaprio in "Shutter Island."

Supporting Actress: (Still the most intriguing category) Two locks are Melissa Leo/The Fighter and HELENA BONHAM CARTER/THE KING'S SPEECH. Near locks are Amy Adams/The Fighter and Hailee Steinfeld/True Grit (Steinfeld would be a lock, but she's getting shaded into the Best Actress category by a couple of Oscar predictors...Hmmmm). And the last spot is an arm wrestling match between Jacki Weaver/Animal Kingdom and MILA KUNIS/BLACK SWAN (my bet is on Kunis). Only two other women might have a shot at a nomination: Miranda Richardson/Made in Dagenham and Dianne Weist/Rabbit Hole.

If I had a ballot: I'm OK here if Kunis gets in.

Supporting Actor: Three men seem to have nominations assured. They are Christian Bale/The Fighter, GEOFFREY RUSH/THE KING'S SPEECH and Mark Ruffalo/The Kids Are All Right. The last two spots look to be comfortably in the hands of Andrew Garfield/The Social Network and Jeremy Renner/The Town. Those that might sneak in are: John Hawkes/Winter's Bone, Sam Rockwell/Conviction or Matt Damon/True Grit.

If I had a ballot: Hawkes in for Renner, Ruffalo or Garfield. And I would add that I'd be voting for both Ed Harris and Colin Farrell from THE WAY BACK.

Adapted Screenplay: Locks: Aaron Sorkin/The Social Network, Michael Arndt/Toy Story 3, Debra Granik & Anne Rosellini/Winter's Bone. The other two nominees would appear to be Joel & Ethan Coen/True Grit and DANNY BOYLE & SIMON BEAUFOY/127 HOURS. The three most likely spoilers are: Ben Affleck, Peter Craig & Aaron Stockard/The Town. David Lindsay-Abaire/Rabbit Hole and Roman Polanski & Robert Harris/The Ghost Writer.

If I had a ballot: Let this category stand.

Original Screenplay: Locks are: DAVID SEIDLER/THE KING'S SPEECH, Christopher Nolan/Inception and Lisa Cholodenko & Stuart Blumberg/The Kids Are All Right. Also likely nominees are: Scott Silver, Paul Tamasy & Eric Johnson/The Fighter and MIKE LEIGH/ANOTHER YEAR. Three which could surprise are: Derek Cianfrance, Joey Curits & Cami Delavigne/Blue Valentine, MARK HEYMAN, ANDRES HEINZ & JOHN J. MC LAUGHLIN/BLACK SWAN, or Chris Provenzano & C. Gaby Mitchell/Get Low. Personally, I think Black Swan gets in instead of The Fighter and if I had a ballot I would certainly vote it in over "The Kids Are All Right."

Animated Film: Locks: Toy Story 3 and How to Train Your Dragon. Probable: THE ILLUSIONIST. Possible spoilers: Tangled, Despicable Me, Megamind. (Parenthetical comment: What a switch in the last 2 weeks as "The Illusionist" has surged ahead of "Tangled" to look like the third nominee. 14 days ago, "Tangled" looked like a cinch.)

Foreign Film: Locks: Nada. Probable: INCENDIES/CANADA, BIUTIFUL/MEXICO, In a Better World/Denmark, Life, Above All/South Africa and Dogtooth/Greece. Possible spoilers...any of the other 4 films still alive after the Academy cut the foreign list down to 9. (from Japan, Sweden, Spain and Algeria). The stunner was the exclusion of France's "OF GODS AND MEN."

Documentary: Only Lock: INSIDE JOB. Other probable nominees: Waiting for Superman, The Tillman Story, Resterpo and Client 9. Possible spoilers: The Waste Land, Exit Through the Gift Shop and The Lottery.

Film Editing: Locks: Inception, The Social Network, The Fighter. Likely: BLACK SWAN and 127 HOURS. Could Slide in: THE KING'S SPEECH, Shutter Island, True Grit.

Cinematography: Locks: Inception and True Grit. Likely: BLACK SWAN, The Social Network and 127 HOURS. Spoilers: Shutter Island, Harry Potter/Deathly Hallows or THE KING'S SPEECH.

Art Direction: Locks: Alice in Wonderland, Inception and THE KING'S SPEECH. Probable nominees: Shutter Island and True Grit. Possible spoilers: Tron:Legacy and Harry Potter/Deathly Hallows or THE WAY BACK.

Original Score: Locks: Inception is the only lock in this category. Probable nominees are: The Social Network, How to Train Your Dragon, THE KING'S SPEECH and NEVER LET ME GO. Possible spoilers: 127 HOURS, The Ghost Writer and True Grit.

Original Song: Locks: "I See the Light"/Tangled, "Shine"/Waiting for Superman, "We Belong Together"/Toy Story 3, and "You Haven't Seen the Last of Me"/Burlesque. The other likely nominee is "IF I RISE"/127 HOURS. Possible spoilers: "Coming Home"/Country Strong, "Despicable Me"/Despicable Me or "CHASON ILLUSIONIST"/THE ILLUSIONIST.

Costuming: Locks: Alice in Wonderland and THE KING'S SPEECH. Probable nominees: BLACK SWAN, True Grit, The Tempest. Spoilers: Burlesque, Harry Potter/Deathly Hallows, Made in Dagenham.

Sound Editing: Inception is the only lock. Probable nominees are: 127 HOURS, Tron:Legacy, True Grit and Toy Story 3. Potential spoilers: How to Train Your Dragon, Iron Man 2 or Unstoppable.

Sound Mixing: Again, Inception is the only lock. Probable nominees are: BLACK SWAN, True Grit, The Social Network and Tron:Legacy. Potential surprises: Unstoppable, Iron Man 2 or Toy Story 3.

Makeup (3 noms only): Locks: Alice in Wonderland and The Wolfman. Other likely nominee: True Grit. Spoilers: THE WAY BACK, Jonah Hex, Barney's Version.

Visual Effects: Locks: Inception and Tron:Legacy. Likely nominees: Alice in Wonderland, Harry Potter/Deathly Hallows, and Iron Man 2. Potential spoilers: Scott Pilgrim or Hereafter.

And, of course, there will be nominations for short form live action, animation and documentary.

The Breakdown: If the Clearinghouse nails it Telluride #37 films earn 30 nominations with 11 more potentially in the mix as spoilers.

The most nominated film(s) will be (according to The Clearinghouse): True Grit and Inception with 10 each (Grit is in play in four other categories and so could end up being the most nominated on its own). The rest of the multiple nominees look like this (with additional possible nominations in parenthesis):

10 nominations: True Grit (4), Inception (0)

9 nominations: THE KING'S SPEECH (2), The Social Network (0)

8 nominations: BLACK SWAN (2)

7 nominations: 127 HOURS (2), The Fighter (1)

4 nominations: The Kids Are All Right (1), Toy Story 3 (1), Alice in Wonderland (0)

Other TFF #37 films earning nominations: ANOTHER YEAR-1, BIUTIFUL-1, INCENDIES-1, NEVER LET ME GO-1, THE ILLUSIONIST-1, INSIDE JOB-1.

And finally, my top ten films for 2010...if I was voting, this would be my Best Picture ballot:

10) The Fighter

9) THE ILLUSIONIST

8) THE WAY BACK

7) Shutter Island

6) 127 HOURS

5) ANOTHER YEAR

4) BLACK SWAN

3) Inception

2) THE KING'S SPEECH

1) True Grit

Back tomorrow with the breakdown and analysis of what the nominations have been....

Brits, Telluride Film #37 and The OC

The British version of the Academy (BRITISH ACADEMY OF FILM AND TELEVISION ARTS or BAFTA) nominations were announced early this morning. TFF #37 was strongly represented. Here are their nominations with Telluride films in Bold and Large

(Thanks to Incontention.com)

Best Film: “Black Swan” “Inception” “The King’s Speech” “The Social Network” “True Grit”

Best British Film: “Another Year” “Four Lions” “The King’s Speech” “Made In Dagenham” “127 Hours”

Best Director: Darren Aronofsky, “Black Swan” Christopher Nolan, “Inception” Tom Hooper, “The King’s Speech” Danny Boyle, “127 Hours” David Fincher, “The Social Network”

Best Actor: Javier Bardem, “Biutiful” Jeff Bridges, “True Grit” Jesse Eisenberg, “The Social Network” Colin Firth, “The King’s Speech” James Franco, “127 Hours”

Best Actress: Annette Bening, “The Kids Are All Right” Julianne Moore, “The Kids Are All Right” Natalie Portman, “Black Swan” Noomi Rapace, “The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo” Hailee Steinfeld, “True Grit”

Best Supporting Actor: Andrew Garfield, “The Social Network” Christian Bale, “The Fighter” Pete Postlethwaite, “The Town” Geoffrey Rush, “The King’s Speech” Mark Ruffalo, “The Kids Are All Right”

Best Supporting Actress: Amy Adams, “The Fighter” Barbara Hershey, “Black Swan” Helena Bonham Carter, “The King’s Speech” Lesley Manville, “Another Year” Miranda Richardson, “Made In Dagenham”

Best Adapted Screenplay: “The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo” “127 Hours” “The Social Network” “Toy Story 3″ “True Grit”

Best Original Screenplay: “Black Swan” “The Fighter” “Inception” “The Kids Are All Right” “The King’s Speech”

Best Foreign Language Film: “Biutiful” “The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo” “I Am Love” “Of Gods and Men” “The Secret In Their Eyes”

Best Animated Film: “Despicable Me” “How To Train Your Dragon” “Toy Story 3″

Best Cinematography: “Black Swan” “Inception” “The King’s Speech” “127 Hours” “True Grit”

Best Production Design: “Alice In Wonderland” “Black Swan” “Inception” “The King’s Speech” “True Grit”

Best Costume Design: “Alice In Wonderland” “Black Swan” “The King’s Speech” “Made In Dagenham” “True Grit”

Best Editing: “Black Swan” “Inception” “The King’s Speech” “127 Hours” “The Social Network”

Best Make Up & Hair: “Alice In Wonderland” “Black Swan” “Harry Potter And The Deathly Hallows Part 1″ “The King’s Speech” “Made In Dagenham”

Best Original Music: “Alice In Wonderland” “How To Train Your Dragon” “Inception” “The King’s Speech” “127 Hours”

Best Sound: “Black Swan” “Inception” “The King’s Speech” “127 Hours” “True Grit”

Best Special Visual Effects: “Alice In Wonderland” “Black Swan” “Harry Potter And The Deathly Hallows Part 1″ “Inception” “Toy Story 3″

Rising Star Award: Gemma Arterton Andrew Garfield Tom Hardy Aaron Johnson Emma Stone

Carl Foreman Award: (best debut by a British writer, director or producer)Clio Barnard, “The Arbor” Banksy and Jaime D’Cruz, “Exit Through the Gift Shop” Chris Morris, “Four Lions” Gareth Edwards, “Monsters” Nick Whitfield, “Skeletons”

The Breakdown:

THE KING'S SPEECH-14

BLACK SWAN-12

Inception-9

127 HOURS and True Grit-8

The Social Network-6

Kids Are All Right and Made in Dagenham-4

The Fighter and Girl with the Dragon Tattoo-3

ANOTHER YEAR and BIUTIFUL-2

OF GODS AND MEN-1

Telluride rakes 39 BAFTA nominations.

Comment: Maybe I am an anglophile, because this seems a lot more accurate to me than the conventional wisdom here in the States concerning the likely dominance of The Social Network.

A couple of interesting notes...Lesley Manville (Another Year) is nominated in Supporting Actress...which is where she should be instead of lead, which is where Oscar prognosticators have been putting her. Similarly, Hailee Steinfeld (True Grit) is nominated as a Lead rather than Supporting which is also opposite of where she's being listed here in the US of A.

Barbara Hershey gets a BAFTA Supporting nomination for "Black Swan" instead of Mila Kunis who has had the majority of Oscar buzz in this country.

"Tamara Drewe's" Gemma Arterton and "Never Let Me Go's" Andrew Garfield are nominated as "Rising Stars."

The BAFTA Awards will be revealed Feb. 13.

The Oscar Clearinghouse #6- A Fortnight 'til Nominations

Two weeks until the Oscar nominations are announced and here is the state of the race via The Oscar Clearinghouse with data compiled from: Scott Feinberg, The Gold Derby, Awards Daily, Dave Karger at Entertainment Weekly, Film Misery, InContention.com, Gurus of Gold from the LA Times, Awards Circuit and Film Experience.

TFF #37 films in CAPS AND BOLD

Best Picture: 1) The Social Network, 2) THE KING'S SPEECH, 3) The Fighter, 4) Inception, 5) BLACK SWAN, 6) True Grit, 7) Toy Story 3, 8) The Kids Are All Right, 9) 127 HOURS, 10) The Town

Others: Winter's Bone, ANOTHER YEAR, Shutter Island, THE WAY BACK, The Ghost Writer

Hot: True Grit, Shutter Island, The Ghost Writer

Not: Toy Story 3, Rabbit Hole

Thought: TSN actually opens up its lead by a minute fraction on TKS. Meanwhile, 127 Hours, The Town and Winter's Bone are in a dead heat for the last 2 nominations.

Direction: 1) David Fincher/The Social Network, 2) TOM HOOPER/THE KING'S SPEECH, 3) DARREN ARONOFSKY/BLACK SWAN, 4) Christopher Nolan/Inception 5) David O. Russell/The Fighter

Others: The Coen Brothers/True Grit, DANNY BOYLE/127 HOURS, Debra Granik/Winter's Bone, MIKE LEIGH/ANOTHER YEAR, Linda Cholodenko/Kids Are All Right

Hot: Zip

Not: Boyle

Thought: Fincher has a perfect score. Coens for Russell would be my guess for how the actual nominations shake out at this point.

Actress: 1) NATALIE PORTMAN/BLACK SWAN, 2) Annette Bening/Kids Are All Right, 3) Jennifer Lawrence/Winter's Bone, 4) Nicole Kidman/Rabbit Hole, 5) LESLEY MANVILLE/ANOTHER YEAR

Others: Michelle Williams/Blue Valentine, Hilary Swank/Conviction, Julianne Moore/Kids, Halle Berry/Frankie & Alice, Tilda Swinton/I Am Love, Naoomi Rapace/Girl Who Played with Fire

Hot: Rapace

Not: Zip

Thought: Portman is one point off of a perfect score and has edged Bening to be the frontrunner for now. Inside the numbers, I think there's still a good possibility that Williams edges Manville for the 5th spot. Also, an interesting note, this was the first time this season that I saw one of the prognosticators put True Grit's Hailee Steinfeld in this race rather than Supporting Actress...hmmm.

Actor: 1) COLIN FIRTH/THE KING'S SPEECH, 2) JAMES FRANCO/127 HOURS, 3) Jesse Eisenberg/The Social Network, 4) Jeff Bridges/True Grit, 5) Robert Duvall/Get Low

Others: Ryan Gosling/Blue Valentine, Mark Wahlberg/The Fighter, JAVIER BARDEM/BIUTIFUL, Leonardo DiCaprio/Shutter Island

Hot: Zip

Not: Zip

Thought: An incredibly stable category. Firth racks up a perfect score. He plus Franco and Eisenberg appear locks for nominations..then it's a free for all between Bridges, Duvall, Gosling and Wahlberg for the last two spots.

Supporting Actress: 1) Melissa Leo/The Fighter, 2) Hailee Steinfeld/True Grit, 3) Amy Adams/The Fighter, 4) HELENA BONHAM CARTER/THE KING'S SPEECH, 5) Jacki Weaver/Animal Knigdom

Others: MILA KUNIS/BLACK SWAN, Dianne Weist/Rabbit Hole, Sissy Spacek/Get Low, Miranda Richardson/Made in Dagenham, BARBARA HERSHEY/BLACK SWAN

Hot: Steinfeld

Not: Zip

Thought: 6 women for 5 spots...Inside the numbers, Kunis has been gaining ground. Weist has probably stopped being a realistic possibility.

Supporting Actor: 1) Christian Bale/The Fighter, 2) GEOFFREY RUSH/THE KING'S SPEECH, 3) Mark Ruffalo/Kids Are All Right, 4) Jeremy Renner/The Town, 5) Andrew Garfield/The Social Network

Others: John Hawkes/Winter's Bone, Sam Rockwell/Conviction, Matt Damon/True Grit, Michael Douglas/Wall Street, ED HARRIS/THE WAY BACK

Hot: Damon

Not: Harris, Bill Murray

Thought: Bale has a perfect score. Hawkes and Rockwell are still a part of the conversation, but Damon, Douglas and Harris don't really stand a chance of a nomination.

Original Screenplay: 1) DAVID SEIDLER/THE KING'S SPEECH, 2) Cholodenko & Blumberg/Kids Are All right, 3) Christopher Nolan/Inception, 4) MIKE LEIGH/ANOTHER YEAR, 5) Silver & Tamasy/The Fighter

Others: HEINZ/HEYMAN/BLACK SWAN, Cianfrance, Curtis & DeLavigne/Blue Valentine, Provenzano & Mitchell/Get Low, Sofia Coppola/Somewhere, William Ivory/Made in Dagenham

Hot: Zip

Not: Zip

Thought: King's is one point off a perfect score. King's and Kids are locks, I think...then...pick 'em. 3 spots for 5 scripts.

Adapted Screenplay: 1) Aaron Sorkin/The Social Network, 2) Michael Arndt/Toy Story 3, 3) Granik & Rosselini/Winter's Bone, 4) The Coens/True Grit, 5) BOYLE & BEAUFOY/127 HOURS

Others: Criag, Affleck & Stoddard/The Town, Roman Polanski/The Ghost Writer, David Lindsay-Abaire/Rabbit Hole, Cowell & Davies/How to Train Your Dragon, PETER WEIR/THE WAY BACK

Hot: Polanski/Ghost Writer

Not: Zip

Thought: TSN has a perfect score. After that, maybe even more of a crapshoot than Original Screenplay with the next 6 scripts with a real shot at the 4 remaining spots.

The Breakdown (for the Big 8 categories):

Predicted Nominations:

6 nominations- THE KING'S SPEECH and The Fighter

5 nominations- The Social Network

4 nominations- True Grit, The Kids Are All Right

3 nominations- Inception, BLACK SWAN, 127 HOURS

2 nominations- Toy Story 3, The Town, Winter's Bone, ANOTHER YEAR

Collective Nominations and Possible Nominations:

7 combined- The Fighter

6 combined- THE KING'S SPEECH, BLACK SWAN, True Grit, The Kids Are All Right

5 combined- The Social Network, Winter's Bone

4 combined- 127 HOURS, ANOTHER YEAR, Get Low

3 combined- Inception, The Town, THE WAY BACK, Blue Valentine, Rabbit Hole

As of this post TFF #37 accounts for 14 nominations and 10 other possibles in the Big 8 categories.

Check out The Clearinghouse post from Jan. 7th to see where the race stand in the technical and foreign categories.

Cinematogrphy Guild and Telluride Film/News from the OC

The American Society of Cinematographers announced their 5 nominees for 2010 late yesterday afternoon. According to Incontention.com they are...

“Black Swan” (Matthew Libatique)

“Inception” (Wally Pfister)

“The King’s Speech” (Danny Cohen)

“The Social Network” (Jeff Cronenweth)

“True Grit” (Roger Deakins)

Maybe the surprise "in" here is "The King's Speech" while the surprise "out" would probably be "127 Hours" or "The Fighter." This Oscar is Roger Deakins to lose.

Two weeks until nomination morning and the Golden Globes are coming up Sunday...a new Oscar Clearinghouse for the Big 8 categories is coming in the next 24 hours.

News from the OC-More Guilds

"127 Hours" gets a couple of nudges.

The Art Directors Guild had their say yesterday with 15 nominations in 3 categories. Three Telluride #37 films get nominated. Here they are (thanks to Incontention.com):

Period Film

“Get Low”

“The King’s Speech”

“Robin Hood”

“Shutter Island”

“True Grit”

Fantasy Film

“Alice in Wonderland”

“The Chronicles of Narnia: The Voyage of the Dawn Treader”

“Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part I”

“Inception”

“TRON Legacy”

Contemporary Film

“Black Swan”

“The Fighter”

“127 Hours”

“The Social Network”

“The Town”

Also, USC announced its finalists for its Adapted Screenplay Award. Only "127 Hours" of the TFF #37 playlist made the cut.

“The Ghost Writer”Roman Polanski, screenwriter Robert Harris, author (novel, “The Ghost”)

“127 Hours”Danny Boyle, Simon Beaufoy, screenwriters Aron Ralston, author (novel, “Between a Rock and a Hard Place”)

“The Social Network”Aaron Sorkin, screenwriter Ben Mezrich, author (book, “The Accidental Billionaires: The Founding of Facebook, A Tale of Sex, Money, Genius and Betrayal”)

“True Grit”Ethan Coen, Joel Coen, screenwriters Charles Portis, author (novel, “True Grit”)

“Winter’s Bone”Debra Granik, Anne Rosellini, screenwriters Daniel Woodrell, author (novel, “Winter’s Bone”)

News from the OC: Guilds

Helena Bonham Carter and Colin Firth in "The King's Speech"

The Producers Guild and The Writer's Guild announced their nominations today.

Producers nominated these 10 as Best Picture:

Darryl F. Zanuck Producer of the Year Award in Theatrical Motion Pictures

“Black Swan” (Scott Franklin, Mike Medavoy, Brian Oliver)

“The Fighter” (David Hoberman, Todd Lieberman, Mark Wahlberg)

“Inception” (Christopher Nolan, Emma Thomas)

“The Kids Are All Right” (Gary Gilbert, Jeffrey Levy-Hinte, Celine Rattray)

“The King’s Speech” (Iain Cunning, Emile Sherman, Gareth Unwin)

“127 Hours” (Danny Boyle, Christian Colson)

“The Social Network” (Dana Brunetti, Ceán Chaffin, Michael De Luca, Scott Rudin)

“The Town” (Basil Iwanyk, Graham King)

“Toy Story 3″ (Darla K. Anderson)

“True Grit” (Ethan Coen, Joel Coen, Scott Rudin)

Writer's Guild Nominees are:

Adapted Screenplay

“127 Hours”

“I Love You Phillip Morris”

“The Social Network”

“The Town”

“True Grit”

Original Screenplay

“Black Swan”

“The Fighter”

“Inception”

“The Kids Are All Right”

“Please Give”

Of course there were a number of scripts that were ineligible for consideration due to Writer's Guild requirements that they did not meet such as "The King's Speech," "Another Year," "Never Let Me Go," and "The Way Back" among others.

What to take from these guild noms? "The Town" and "127 Hours" are widely considered to be in serious competition with "Winter's Bone" for the 10th Best Picture Oscar nomination. Today's nominations would seem to give them (Town, 127) the edge with 8 spots seemingly solidly locked with 3 weeks to go before the announcement.

Art Directors Guild and USC Scripter nominations are expected tomorrow...we'll see what they tell us.

The Oscar Clearinghouse #5 Pre-Holiday Edition

How many nominations for "The King's Speech" on January 25th?

Here's one more Clearinghouse in a big way before the end of 2011. TFF #37 films in CAPS AND BOLD.

The Clearinghouse is using data gathered from Scott Feinberg, The Gold Derby, Awards Daily, Dave Karger at Entertainment Weekly, Film Misery, InContention.com, Gurus of Gold from the LA Times, Awards Circuit and Film Experience for this latest chart.

BEST PICTURE: 1) The Social Network, 2) THE KING'S SPEECH, 3) Inception, 4) The Fighter, 5) Toy Story 3, 6) BLACK SWAN, 7) The Kids Are All Right, 8) True Grit, 9) 127 HOURS, 10) Winter's Bone.

Next Five: The Town, ANOTHER YEAR, THE WAY BACK, Rabbit Hole, Blue Valentine.

Hot: The Fighter and Black Swan

Not: 127 Hours

Thought: The bunching at the top between "Social Network" and "King's Speech" could not be tighter. My current theory is that "Social" has peaked too soon and with so much unanimity (so many critic's accolades...) that "King's" will still win Best Picture. A lot of conventional wisdom says lately that "127 Hours" will slide off the list of 10 nominees and be replaced by "The Town." That would also mean that Danny Boyle would slip off the Best Director list of 5 nominees. "Black Swan" and "The Fighter" are both getting some good boost in the last month. It would also appear that the only other film hovering under the current ten likely nominees that has any realistic chance of stealing a Best Picture nomination is "Another Year." I'd be completely OK with that. As I have said in this space it was one of my favorites at Telluride this year. Certainly a better film than "The Kids Are All Right' "Toy Story 3" and, dare I say it "The Social Network."

BEST DIRECTOR 1) David Fincher/The Social Network, 2) TOM HOOPER/THE KING'S SPEECH, 3) DARREN ARONOFSKY/BLACK SWAN, 4) Christopher Nolan/Inception, 5) DANNY BOYLE/127 HOURS

Next Five: David O. Russell/The Fighter, Joel & Ethan Coen/True Grit, Debra Granik/Winter's Bone, Linda Cholodenko/Kids Are All Right, MIKE LEIGH/ANOTHER YEAR.

Hot: Aronofsky and Granik

Not: PETER WEIR/THE WAY BACK (who fell off the top ten) and Leigh.

Thought: Again, Boyle may be out next time and Russell and The Coens are the likely candidates to get the fifth nomination. For my money it should be the Coens (but I haven't seen "Winter's Bone" yet, it's sitting on my DVD player as I write). In a perfect world there would be 6 nominees and Boyle could stay on the list.

BEST ACTRESS: 1) NATALIE PORTMAN/BLACK SWAN, 2) Annete Bening/Kids Are All Right, 3) Jennifer Lawrence/Winter's Bone, 4) Nicole Kidman/Rabbit Hole, 5) LESLEY MANVILLE/ANOTHER YEAR

Next Five (well three): Michelle Williams/Blue Valentine, Julianne Moore/Kids Are All Right, Hilary Swank/Conviction and 4 others tied at the number 9 spot.

Hot: Swank...who rejoins the list after her Golden Globe nomination

Not: Nobody really nuked since the last Clearinghouse

Thought: It's a two horse race Portman and Bening neck and neck (they keep trading the top spot on the Clearinghouse and are current separated by 2 points) and likely to be that way right up to the opening of the envelope. Personally, I'd vote for Portman. I'd also like to see Manville hang on for the 5th spot, but I have a suspicion that that's not going to happen. Nobody is seeing the film and (as I've said repeatedly) it's ACTUALLY A SUPPORTING ROLE! Realistically and probably the fifth spot ends up in Michelle Williams hands.

BEST ACTOR: 1) COLIN FIRTH/THE KING'S SPEECH, 2) JAMES FRANCO/127 HOURS, 3) Jesse Eisenberg/The Social Network, 4) Robert Duvall/Get Low, 5) Jeff Bridges/True Grit.

Next Five: Ryan Gosling/Blue Valentine, Mark Wahlberg/The Fighter, JAVIER BARDEM/BIUTIFUL, Leonardo DiCaprio/Shutter Island, Paul Giamatti/Barney's Version.

Hot: Eisenberg

Not: Bridges

Thought: Increasingly becoming Firth's to lose (he has perfect score on The Clearinghouse). I think Franco's a lock and after that you have 5 guys shooting for the remaining 3 spots...and Bardem isn't in that group.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS: 1) Melissa Leo/The Fighter, 2) Amy Adams/The Fighter, 3) HELENA BONHAM CARTER/THE KING'S SPEECH, 4) Hailee Steinfeld/True Grit, 5) Jacki Weaver/Animal Kingdom.

Next Five: MILA KUNIS/BLACK SWAN, Dianne Weist/Rabbit Hole, Miranda Richardson/Made in Dagenham, Sissy Spacek/Get Low, BARBARA HERSHEY/BLACK SWAN.

Hot: Leo, Adams, Steinfeld and Kunis

Not: Weist

Thought: The most fun category of the Big 8. It's fluid, and tightly packed. And full up with terrific performances. It's going to be tough to leave some of these women off the carpet on Oscar night. Leo and Adams are riding a "Fighter" wave. Kunis is riding a "Swan" wave. Steinfeld's "Grit" is finally in theaters and it's stunning and Bonham Carter just keeps hanging in. I suspect that they'll ultimately be the five nominees and that Weaver and Weist will be on the outside looking in.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR: 1) Christian Bale/The Fighter, 2) GEOFFREY RUSH/THE KING'S SPEECH, 3) Mark Ruffalo/Kids Are All Right, 4) Andrew Garfield/Social Network, 5) Jeremy Renner/The Town

Next Five: John Hawkes/Winter's Bone, Sam Rockwell/Conviction, ED HARRIS/THE WAY BACK, Bill Murray/Get Low, Michael Douglas/Wall Street, Money Never...

Hot: Hawkes

Not: Harris

Thought: Bale's to lose. He's one point off a perfect score. I love Rush's performance in "King's Speech" but Bale is fantastic as Wahlberg's wastrel brother in "The Fighter." You really can't take your eyes off his performance. For my money you can have Ruffalo and Garfield..they're OK...but not in the same league as Bale and Rush's performances. The top four are likely nominees with Renner, Hawkes and Rockwell realistically slugging it out for the last spot. I think Harris's chances are gone because "The Way Back's" profile is so small as to be virtually invisible.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: 1) The Social Network, 2) Toy Story 3, 3) Winter's Bone, 4) 127 HOURS, 5) True Grit

Next Five: The Town, Rabbit Hole, How to Train Your Dragon, THE WAY BACK, The Ghost Writer.

Hot: Zip

Not:Also zip.

Thought: So little movement here from the last Clearinghouse. The top five are pretty solid with "Rabbit Hole" and "The Town" the only realistic spoilers.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: 1) (TIE) THE KING'S SPEECH and The Kids Are All Right, 3) ANOTHER YEAR, 4) Inception, 5) The Fighter

Next Five: BLACK SWAN, Blue Valentine, Get Low, Somewhere, Made in Dagenham.

Hot: Zip

Not: Blue Valentine

Thought: Kings and Kids are locks. After that it gets dicey in this category with the next 5 listed films all real possibilities to get one of the three remaining nominations.

UNDERVIEWS:

Telluride #37 films have 15 of the 45 nominations in the Big 8 categories if The Clearinghouse is to be believed at this moment and another 9 possibles. There will be further nominations in the technical categories (one source thinks that "The King's Speech" could get up to 12 nominations by itself) as well as the Foreign Film category (Biutiful) and Documentary/Shorts categories... I still think TFF #37 could end up with 30 plus nominations.

And to repeat..."Social Network," Kids Are All Right" and "Toy Story 3"...over rated!

"True Grit, " "The King's Speech" and "Another Year"...see them now!

After the New Year (which we plan to spend back in Telluride...woo hoo!), The Clearinghouse will begin to include prognostications on the technical and other categories as well.

Have a great Holiday, everyone!

Follow on Twitter @Gort2 and Facebook.

SAG Nominations and the OC

"The King's Speech" and "Black Swan" continue their awards assault with this morning's announcement from the Screen Actor's Guild. Here is the complete list from USA Today:

Film Ensemble:
Black Swan
The Fighter
The Kids Are All Right
The King's Speech
The Social Network

Lead actor
Jeff Bridges, True Grit
Robert Duvall, Get Low
Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network
Colin Firth, The King's Speech
James Franco, 127 Hours

Lead actress
Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right
Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole
Jennifer Lawrence, Winter's Bone
Natalie Portman, Black Swan
Hilary Swank, Conviction

Supporting Actor
Christian Bale, The Fighter
John Hawkes, Winter's Bone
Jeremy Renner, The Town
Mark Ruffalo, The Kids Are All Right
Geoffrey Rush, The King's Speech

Supporting Actress
Amy Adams, The Fighter
Helena Bonham Carter, The King's Speech
Mila Kunis, Black Swan
Melissa Leo, The Fighter
Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit

Comment: "Ensemble" is what approximates Best Picture for the SAG Awards, so this almost certainly closes the deal for "Black Swan," "The Fighter," and "The Kids Are All Right" to be on the Oscar list of 10 nominees. "King's Speech" and "Social Network" have been considered locks...but these other three haven't been nearly the consensus picks that Kings and Social have been.

Actor: Nice boost for Duvall and for Bridges...after the Globe snub from earlier this week. Still likely Firth's to lose.

Actress: Hilary Swank...really? OK...Still likely a two horse race between Bening and Portman.

Supporting Actor: Hawkes and Renner are creeping into the conversation in a serious way for Oscar nominations...But it's between Bale and Rush for the win.

Supporting Actress: What an interesting category...Adams and Leo in "The Fighter" coming on like gangbusters. Steinfeld and Kunis are gathering some serious steam as well...and Bonham Carter maybe the lone lock in the category at this point...not to win, but to get a nomination. Anyone who says they think they know who's going to win this Oscar...don't believe them.

5 Categories/25 total nominees...8 for TFF #37 films.

King's Speech-4

Black Swan-3

127 Hours-1

Other non-Telluride films with multiple noms:

Social Network-2, Winter's Bone-2, The Fighter-4, Kids-3, True Grit-2

More Guilds still to come...Producers, Directors and Writers among others. we'll try to have a new comprehensive look at the Oscar race on The Clearinghouse within the next few days.

TFF #37 and the Golden Globes

Here from Incontention.com is this morning's nominee list from the Golden Globes.

Best Picture – Drama “Black Swan” “The Fighter” “Inception” “The King’s Speech” “The Social Network”

Best Picture – Musical/Comedy “Alice in Wonderland” “Burlesque” “The Kids Are All Right” “Red” “The Tourist”

Best Director-Darren Aronofsky, “Black Swan” David O. Russell, “The Fighter” Christopher Nolan, “Inception” Tom Hooper, “The King’s Speech” David Fincher, “The Social Network”

Best Actor – Drama Jesse Eisenberg, “The Social Network”Colin Firth, “The King’s Speech”James Franco, “127 Hours”Ryan Gosling, “Blue Valentine”Mark Wahlberg, “The Fighter”

Best Actress – Drama Halle Berry, “Frankie and Alice” Nicole Kidman, “Rabbit Hole”Jennifer Lawrence, “Winter’s Bone” Natalie Portman, “Black Swan” Michelle Williams, “Blue Valentine”

Best Actor – Musical/Comedy Johnny Depp, “Alice in Wonderland”Johnny Depp, “The Tourist” Paul Giamatti, “Barney’s Version”Jake Gyllenhaal, “Love and Other Drugs” Kevin Spacey, “Casino Jack”

Best Actress – Musical/Comedy Annette Bening, “The Kids Are All Right”Anne Hathaway, “Love and Other Drugs”Angelina Jolie, “The Tourist”Julianne Moore, “The Kids Are All Right” Emma Stone, “Easy A”

Best Supporting Actor-Christian Bale, “The Fighter” Michael Douglas, “Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps”Andrew Garfield, “The Social Network”Jeremy Renner, “The Town” Geoffrey Rush, “The King’s Speech”

Best Supporting Actress-Amy Adams, “The Fighter” Helena Bonham Carter, “The King’s Speech” Mila Kunis, “Black Swan” Melissa Leo, “The Fighter”Jacki Weaver, “Animal Kingdom”

Best Screenplay-Christopher Nolan, “Inception” Lisa Cholodenko and Stuart Blumberg, “The Kids Are All Right” David Seidler, “The King’s Speech” Danny Boyle and Simon Beaufoy, “127 Hours” Aaron Sorkin, “The Social Network”

Best Foreign Language Film-“Biutiful” “The Concert”“The Edge”“I Am Love”“In a Better World”

Best Animated Feature-“Despicable Me”“How to Train Your Dragon” “The Illusionist” “Tangled” “Toy Story 3”

Best Original Score-Danny Elfman, “Alice in Wonderland” Hans Zimmer, “Inception” Alexandre Desplat, “The King’s Speech”A.R. Rahman, “127 Hours” Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross, “The Social Network”

Best Original Song-“Bound to You” from “Burlesque” “You Haven’t Seen the Last of Me” from “Burlesque” “There’s a Place for Us” from “The Chronicles of Narnia: The Voyage of the Dawn Treader” “Coming Home” from “Country Strong” “I See the Light” from “Tangled”

And a few notes...

16 nominations from among this year's Telluride films...

The King's Speech-7 (the most of any film)

Black Swan-4

127 Hours-3

The Illusionist-1

Biutiful-1

Best Pic Drama-Boost for "The Fighter" Ding for "True Grit" (no Grit anywhere, and the HFPA usually loves the Coens) and "127 Hours" (but maybe not too much...it gets nominations for Actor and Screenplay, so...)

Best Pic Music/Comedy- This category is even worse than normal...(and I'm one of the 8 people on the planet that actually liked "Alice"). Further, if "Kids Are All Right" is a comedy, I'll eat my hat!

Best Director-Again...boost for Russell and "The Fighter". No nom for Danny Boyle, though.

Best Actor-Drama-The boost for "The Fighter" lifts Marky Mark Wahlberg into the Best Actor race. Up to this point the supporting players were getting all the press.

Best Actress-Drama-Halle Berry from almost out of nowhere...

Best Actor-Music/Comedy-Not a soul here who will play for an Oscar nom

Best Actress-Music/Comedy-Boost for Jullianne Moore who has been getting the lesser speculation as compared to her co-star Annette Bening. Maybe a bit of a boost for Hathaway.

Supporting Actor-A little surprise for Michael Douglas

Supporting Actress-Mila Kunis...how about that.

Screenplay-Nice notice for "127 Hours"

Glad to see "The Illusionist" in the mix. It's Oscar chances, though are probably still slim.

News from the OC

"The Social Network" cleans up today. Best Pic from LA Film Critics, NY Film Critics Online, Boston Society of Film Critics...and AFI Top Ten. I've said it before...ehhh?

Here's the AFI Top Ten and a couple of extras. Telluride Film Festival 37 does all right.

BLACK SWAN

THE FIGHTER

INCEPTION

THE KIDS ARE ALL RIGHT

127 HOURS

THE SOCIAL NETWORK

THE TOWN

TOY STORY 3

TRUE GRIT

WINTER'S BONE

and...

AFI SPECIAL AWARDS
THE KING'S SPEECH

WAITING FOR SUPERMAN

New York's Online Critics awarded Natalie Portman of Black Swan Best Actress. Swan also was cited for Cinematography and Score. James Franco of 127 Hours was honored for Best Actor.

LA's Film Critics awarded Colin Firth of The King's Speech Best Actor and Niels Arestrup of the French prison drama A Prophet (TFF #36) Best Supporting Actor. Best Direction was shared by Olivier Assayas for Carlos. Carlos was also named Runner-Up for Best Film and Best Foreign Film. Edgar Ramirez , who played the title role, was runner-up to Firth. The King's Speech also scored as the runner-up in a number of categories including Geoffrey Rush as Supporting Actor as well as in Production Design and for David Seidler's Screenplay. The Illusionist was runner-up as Best Animated Film.

Boston's Society of Film Critics only cited Portman as Best Actress and the Film Editing of Black Swan from Telluride 37 films in their year end awards.

New York's Film Critics Circle announces tomorrow.