The Oscar Clearinghouse #7 Re-Post. Telluride Film and the 83rd Academy Awards

Because of some issues I have decided to re-post the Clearinghouse from this morning.

It's been four and a half months since the Telluride Film Festival concluded and after the long awards season march the Oscar nominations will be announced tomorrow morning. Here is the latest compilation of Oscar prognosticator's wisdom with our focus on the films that played as a part of the Telluride Film Festival in 2010. Categories have been limited to the appropriate number of nominees and three possible spoilers. TFF #37 films listed in CAPS AND BOLD.

Information collated from: Rope of Silicon, Incontention.com, Scott Feinberg, Dave Karger at Entertainment Weekly, The Gold Derby, Awards Daily, Film Misery, The Gurus of Gold from Movie City News, The Awards Circuit and Film Experience.

Best Picture: 8 films seem like locks: THE KING'S SPEECH, BLACK SWAN, The Social Network, The Fighter, The Kids Are All Right, Toy Story 3, Inception and True Grit. 127 HOURS has actually solidified its chances in the last couple of weeks making it a probable nominee. It looks like that the last spot is between The Town and Winter's Bone with Bone having the inside track. The only other films with a prayer of cracking the Ten Nominees are Blue Valentine and ANOTHER YEAR, but it's the slimmest of chances.
If I had a ballot: See my top ten below. Suffice it to say (as I have been) that "The Social Network," "Toy Story 3," and "The Kids Are All Right" are over-rated.

Best Director: David Fincher/The Social Network and David O. Russell/The Fighter appear to be locks with TOM HOOPER/THE KING'S SPEECH, DARREN ARONOFSKY/BLACK SWAN and Christopher Nolan/Inception looking very much like the other three nominees. If there is a surprise it would be (In order of likelihood) The Coen Brothers/True Grit, DANNY BOYLE/127 HOURS or MIKE LEIGH/ANOTHER YEAR.
If I had a ballot: Coens in and Russell OR Fincher out.

Best Actress: NATALIE PORTMAN/BLACK SWAN and Annette Bening/The Kids Are All Right have been locks for months. Jennifer Lawrence/Winter's Bone appears to have moved into that status as of the last two weeks. The other two spots look to go Nicole Kidman/Rabbit Hole and Michelle Williams/Blue Valentine. Three women who could intrude (in order of their chances) are: LESLEY MANVILLE/ANOTHER YEAR, Julianne Moore/The Kids Are All Right or a late charging Hilary Swank/Conviction.
If I had a ballot: Don't know that I'd do much different here...maybe move Manville to supporting, but that category is already filled with great work.

Best Actor: Locks: COLIN FIRTH/THE KING'S SPEECH, JAMES FRANCO/127 HOURS. Very Likely the other three are: Robert Duvall/Get Low, Jeff Bridges/True Grit and Jesse Eisenberg/The Social Network. Realistically, if a surprise occurs it would be Ryan Gosling/Blue Valentine, JAVIER BARDEM/BIUTIFUL or Mark Wahlberg/The Fighter.
If I had a ballot: Eisenberg out for Leonardo DiCaprio in "Shutter Island."

Supporting Actress: (Still the most intriguing category) Two locks are Melissa Leo/The Fighter and HELENA BONHAM CARTER/THE KING'S SPEECH. Near locks are Amy Adams/The Fighter and Hailee Steinfeld/True Grit (Steinfeld would be a lock, but she's getting shaded into the Best Actress category by a couple of Oscar predictors...Hmmmm). And the last spot is an arm wrestling match between Jacki Weaver/Animal Kingdom and MILA KUNIS/BLACK SWAN (my bet is on Kunis). Only two other women might have a shot at a nomination: Miranda Richardson/Made in Dagenham and Dianne Weist/Rabbit Hole.
If I had a ballot: I'm OK here if Kunis gets in.

Supporting Actor: Three men seem to have nominations assured. They are Christian Bale/The Fighter, GEOFFREY RUSH/THE KING'S SPEECH and Mark Ruffalo/The Kids Are All Right. The last two spots look to be comfortably in the hands of Andrew Garfield/The Social Network and Jeremy Renner/The Town. Those that might sneak in are: John Hawkes/Winter's Bone, Sam Rockwell/Conviction or Matt Damon/True Grit.
If I had a ballot: Hawkes in for Renner, Ruffalo or Garfield. And I would add that I'd be voting for both Ed Harris and Colin Farrell from THE WAY BACK.

Adapted Screenplay: Locks: Aaron Sorkin/The Social Network, Michael Arndt/Toy Story 3, Debra Granik & Anne Rosellini/Winter's Bone. The other two nominees would appear to be Joel & Ethan Coen/True Grit and DANNY BOYLE & SIMON BEAUFOY/127 HOURS. The three most likely spoilers are: Ben Affleck, Peter Craig & Aaron Stockard/The Town. David Lindsay-Abaire/Rabbit Hole and Roman Polanski & Robert Harris/The Ghost Writer.
If I had a ballot: Let this category stand.

Original Screenplay: Locks are: DAVID SEIDLER/THE KING'S SPEECH, Christopher Nolan/Inception and Lisa Cholodenko & Stuart Blumberg/The Kids Are All Right. Also likely nominees are: Scott Silver, Paul Tamasy & Eric Johnson/The Fighter and MIKE LEIGH/ANOTHER YEAR. Three which could surprise are: Derek Cianfrance, Joey Curits & Cami Delavigne/Blue Valentine, MARK HEYMAN, ANDRES HEINZ & JOHN J. MC LAUGHLIN/BLACK SWAN, or Chris Provenzano & C. Gaby Mitchell/Get Low. Personally, I think Black Swan gets in instead of The Fighter and if I had a ballot I would certainly vote it in over "The Kids Are All Right."

Animated Film: Locks: Toy Story 3 and How to Train Your Dragon. Probable: THE ILLUSIONIST. Possible spoilers: Tangled, Despicable Me, Megamind. (Parenthetical comment: What a switch in the last 2 weeks as "The Illusionist" has surged ahead of "Tangled" to look like the third nominee. 14 days ago, "Tangled" looked like a cinch.)

Foreign Film: Locks: Nada. Probable: INCENDIES/CANADA, BIUTIFUL/MEXICO, In a Better World/Denmark, Life, Above All/South Africa and Dogtooth/Greece. Possible spoilers...any of the other 4 films still alive after the Academy cut the foreign list down to 9. (from Japan, Sweden, Spain and Algeria). The stunner was the exclusion of France's "OF GODS AND MEN."
Documentary: Only Lock: INSIDE JOB. Other probable nominees: Waiting for Superman, The Tillman Story, Resterpo and Client 9. Possible spoilers: The Waste Land, Exit Through the Gift Shop and The Lottery.

Film Editing: Locks: Inception, The Social Network, The Fighter. Likely: BLACK SWAN and 127 HOURS. Could Slide in: THE KING'S SPEECH, Shutter Island, True Grit.

Cinematography: Locks: Inception and True Grit. Likely: BLACK SWAN, The Social Network and 127 HOURS. Spoilers: Shutter Island, Harry Potter/Deathly Hallows or THE KING'S SPEECH.

Art Direction: Locks: Alice in Wonderland, Inception and THE KING'S SPEECH. Probable nominees: Shutter Island and True Grit. Possible spoilers: Tron:Legacy and Harry Potter/Deathly Hallows or THE WAY BACK.

Original Score: Locks: Inception is the only lock in this category. Probable nominees are: The Social Network, How to Train Your Dragon, THE KING'S SPEECH and NEVER LET ME GO. Possible spoilers: 127 HOURS, The Ghost Writer and True Grit.

Original Song: Locks: "I See the Light"/Tangled, "Shine"/Waiting for Superman, "We Belong Together"/Toy Story 3, and "You Haven't Seen the Last of Me"/Burlesque. The other likely nominee is "IF I RISE"/127 HOURS. Possible spoilers: "Coming Home"/Country Strong, "Despicable Me"/Despicable Me or "CHASON ILLUSIONIST"/THE ILLUSIONIST.

Costuming: Locks: Alice in Wonderland and THE KING'S SPEECH. Probable nominees: BLACK SWAN, True Grit, The Tempest. Spoilers: Burlesque, Harry Potter/Deathly Hallows, Made in Dagenham.

Sound Editing: Inception is the only lock. Probable nominees are: 127 HOURS, Tron:Legacy, True Grit and Toy Story 3. Potential spoilers: How to Train Your Dragon, Iron Man 2 or Unstoppable.

Sound Mixing: Again, Inception is the only lock. Probable nominees are: BLACK SWAN, True Grit, The Social Network and Tron:Legacy. Potential surprises: Unstoppable, Iron Man 2 or Toy Story 3.

Makeup (3 noms only): Locks: Alice in Wonderland and The Wolfman. Other likely nominee: True Grit. Spoilers: THE WAY BACK, Jonah Hex, Barney's Version.

Visual Effects: Locks: Inception and Tron:Legacy. Likely nominees: Alice in Wonderland, Harry Potter/Deathly Hallows, and Iron Man 2. Potential spoilers: Scott Pilgrim or Hereafter.

And, of course, there will be nominations for short form live action, animation and documentary.

The Breakdown: If the Clearinghouse nails it Telluride #37 films earn 30 nominations with 11 more potentially in the mix as spoilers.

The most nominated film(s) will be (according to The Clearinghouse): True Grit and Inception with 10 each (Grit is in play in four other categories and so could end up being the most nominated on its own). The rest of the multiple nominees look like this (with additional possible nominations in parenthesis):
10 nominations: True Grit (4), Inception (0)
9 nominations: THE KING'S SPEECH (2), The Social Network (0)
8 nominations: BLACK SWAN (2)
7 nominations: 127 HOURS (2), The Fighter (1)
4 nominations: The Kids Are All Right (1), Toy Story 3 (1), Alice in Wonderland (0)

Other TFF #37 films earning nominations: ANOTHER YEAR-1, BIUTIFUL-1, INCENDIES-1, NEVER LET ME GO-1, THE ILLUSIONIST-1, INSIDE JOB-1.

And finally, my top ten films for 2010...if I was voting, this would be my Best Picture ballot:
10) The Fighter
9) THE ILLUSIONIST
8) THE WAY BACK
7) Shutter Island
6) 127 HOURS
5) ANOTHER YEAR
4) BLACK SWAN
3) Inception
2) THE KING'S SPEECH
1) True Grit

Back tomorrow with the breakdown and analysis of what the nominations have been....

Tellurdie Film Festival/The Oscar Clearinghouse-Tech and More

Less than three weeks until Oscar nominations are announced and here's a look at the trends in the Technical/Doc/Foreign/Animated categories....We'll forgo the Short Subject categories (Live, Animated, Doc)...TFF #37 in CAPS AND BOLD

ART DIRECTION: 1) Inception, 2) THE KING'S SPEECH, 3) Alice in Wonderland, 4) Shutter Island, 5) True Grit

Players: Tron:Legacy, Harry Potter/Deathly Hallows

CINEMATOGRAPHY: 1) True Grit, 2) Inception, 3) 127 HOURS, 4) BLACK SWAN, 5) Shutter Island

Players: THE WAY BACK, The Social Network

Notes: Roger Deakins...please.

COSTUME: 1) Alice in Wonderland, 2) THE KING'S SPEECH, 3) The Tempest, 4) True Grit, 5) Burlesque

Players: Get Low, Made in Dagenham

FILM EDITING: 1) The Social Network, 2) Inception, 3) 127 HOURS, 4) BLACK SWAN, 5) True Grit

Players: The Fighter

MAKEUP: 1) Alice in Wonderland, 2) The Wolfman, 3) BLACK SWAN

ORIGINAL SCORE: 1) Inception, 2) How to Train Your Dragon, 3) NEVER LET ME GO, 4) THE KING'S SPEECH, 5) True Grit

Players: The Ghost Writer

ORIGINAL SONG: 1) Tangled, 2) Toy Story 3, 3) Waiting for Superman, 4) Burlesque, 5) 127 HOURS

Player: Country Strong

SOUND EDITING: 1) Inception, 2) 127 HOURS, 3) Tron:Legacy, 4) Toy Story 3, 5) How to Train Your Dragon

Players: Iran Man 2, Unstoppable

SOUND MIXING: 1) Inception, 2) True Grit, 3) 127 HOURS, 4) Tron:Legacy, 5) Unstoppable

Players: Iron Man 2, BLACK SWAN, Toy Story 3

VISUAL EFFECTS: 1) Inception, 2) Tron:Legacy, 3) Iron Man 2, 4) Harry Potter/Deathly Hallows, 5) Alice in Wonderland

ANIMATED FEATURE: 1) Toy Story 3, 2) How to Train Your Dragon, 3) Tangled

Players: THE ILLUSIONIST, Despicable Me

DOCUMENTARY: 1) INSIDE JOB, 2) Waiting for Superman, 3) The Tillman Story, 4) Wasteland, 5) Restrepo

Players: Exit Through the Gift Shop, Gasland

FOREIGN FILM: 1) Outside the Law/Algeria, 2) OF GODS AND MEN/FRANCE, 3) INCENDIES/CANADA, 4) Life Above All/South Africa,5) Son of Babylon/Iraq

Players: BIUTIFUL/MEXICO, In a Better World/Denmark

Notes:

If the above were 100% accurate TFF #37 will have 30 nominations and 13 other possibles (including the Big 8 categories).

Breakdown by TFF #37:

The King's Speech and 127 Hours 9 noms and 0 possibles

Black Swan 6 noms and 4 possibles

Another Year 2 noms and 2 possible

Inside Job 1 nom

Never Let Me Go 1 nom

The Way Back 4 possibles

Biutiful 2 possibles

The Illusionist 1 possible

Foreign Films 2 noms (Of Gods and Men and Incendies) and 1 possible (Biutiful)

Th Clearinghouse says that the films with the most nominations would be (if the nominations were announced today and irrespective of TFF #37):

1) True Grit 10 (with another possible)

2) Inception 10

3) THE KING'S SPEECH 9

3) 127 HOURS 9

5) BLACK SWAN 6 (with 4 more possible)

6) The Social Network 6 (with another possible)

7) Toy Story 3 5 (with another possible)

8) The Fighter 4 (with 3 more possible)

9) The Kids Are All Right 4 (with 2 more possible)

10) Winter's Bone 3 (with 2 more possible)

Others with 4 or more possibles:

THE WAY BACK, ANOTHER YEAR, Rabbit Hole, Get Low, Alice in Wonderland, Tron: Legacy, How to Train Your Dragon...Honorable Mention: Shutter Island and The Town.

Next Week...an updated Big 8 Categories.

Sources: InContention.com, Film Misery, The Awards Circuit

TFF 37 Post Mortem

Still recovering. It's a looooong drive back to the Oklahoma Panhandle from southwest Colorado.

We had a terrific time in Telluride. I got in 11 films...and , of course, didn't see everything I wanted to see. Still saw some great stuff...and a couple of films I wasn't all that impressed with.

Here's the rundown of the films and a couple of other notes...

"Black Swan"...Portman is terrific. There was a lot of Oscar speculation on her behalf during the weekend...and with good reason. Aronofsky is brash and bold. He's painting with big, broad strokes (no surprise there). The buzz seemed to be fairly strong and largely positive. For me, the film seemed like it was going through the motions for the first two acts...but then Aronofsky really starts playing with the Portman character in terms of reality/surreality...and it gets pretty interesting from that point on. There was also some speculation that it could get into the Best Picture race...but I don't know that it's going to play all that well with older members of the Academy...it's pretty violent and the lesbian sex scene between Portman and Mila Kunis could also curb some voters enthusiasm. ***

"127 Hours"...James Franco is fantastic as Aron Ralston and Danny Boyle is very creative in bringing a really static story to life and doing so in a way so that our attention is always commanded by the screen. Franco seems like a sure Oscar bet...the film was also getting good buzz as a possible Best Picture contender. I thought it was really good, but not great. Franco is very good and Boyle's direction is impressive. That being said, for me...it's no Slumdog and if I heard a knock on it this weekend it was about the gruesomeness of the arm amputation and that stylistically Boyle seemed to use too many of the same tricks that he employed in Slumdog. ***

"Never Let Me Go"...this seemed to be the most polarizing film of the weekend. People in line seemed to either love it or hate it. Oddly, I was somewhere in the middle which was frustrating, because it was pretty high on my list to see. It seemed to me that Romanek aimed for a cool detached telling of the story so as to underscore the control over the lives of the main characters and the inevitable conclusion of their existence. And while that's a valid choice, it also seemed to leach away much of a chance that the actors had many places to go. It also seems to me that that choice makes it a real challenge for the audience to care very much about what happens to these people. Finally, with the exception of Carey Mulligan, I don't think that Andrew Garfield or Keira Knightley have the chops or maturity to do this kind of subtlety and pull it off. And even Mulligan is forced to be pretty one note.**

"Biutiful"...here I seemed to be the odd man out...I'm a moderate fan of Inarritu's previous work. I liked Babel quite a lot. And I like Bardem quite a bit too...and I know that he co-won Best Actor at Cannes for this... but...this just didn't work for me (and I gather that the reviews were pretty split in Cannes). It seemed to me that his film hit every possible cliche in the display of Bardem's suffering till he dies. I thought it telegraphed almost every single plot development and that Bardem was awfully one note in his performance. But, hey, that's just me...most of the rest of the folks I had conversation with thought it was good and that Bardem was fantastic...**

"The King's Speech"...by now, I'm sure that you've heard that this was the biggest buzz coming out of the fest. And I hate to be a "me-tooer"...but this is a really, really good, maybe great film. Colin Firth and Geoffrey Rush are stunningly good. Oscar noms for both are going to happen. Helena Bonham Carter also seems to be getting some attention for Supporting Actress...though it's not nearly as showy a role as the two male leads. Tom Hooper's direction is impressive. Expect noms for him and costuming as well as screenplay at a minimum...This is the film that has the heat that Juno, Slumdog and Up in the Air had coming out of Telluride each of the past few years.****

My second favorite film of the weekend was Mike Leigh's "Another Year." I've never been a huge Leigh fan, but this is a fine, fine piece of work. It looks at a year in the lives of an older couple and their orbit of friends and relatives. Jim Broadbent and Ruth Sheen are graceful and lovely as the couple at the center of the story. I understand that it got a really warm reception at Cannes and that a lot of the critic types were surprised it didn't win any prize...I'd like to think it has a shot at one of the ten Best Picture slots and director and screenplay nods as well. Everyone seems to think Lesley Manville will play for a Best Actress nom, although she might more properly be considered Supporting.***1/2

"The Way Back"...Peter Weir's story of a 4000 mile trek of a group escaping from a Soviet gulag in 1940. They walked out. It's stirring, well made, well acted...Beautiful and purportedly shot for only $29 million. Jim Sturgess is the lead and is good. Ed Harris is in support and is really good and Colin Farrell is fantastic. One of the best things he's ever done. After his little turn last year in "Crazy Heart" and this, I'm beginning to think he's turning into a pretty fine actor. Some Oscar buzz for this last weekend...but I think it got really squeezed out of the buzz because of all the hoopla for King's Speech, Black Swan and 127 Hours.***

"The Illusionist"...Sylvain Chomet's follow up to "The Triplets of Belleville"...beautifully done. It was delightful. Often a perfect example of words over rated as method of communication. It's clever, warm, funny and touching. ***1/2

"Tamara Drewe"...a lot of people on line really loved this comedy from Stephen Frears...I liked it, didn't love it. It's a mildly amusing sex comedy and nothing more. Bill Camp steals the movie from Gemma Arterton (as the title character) as an American writer struggling to finish his opus on Thomas Hardy.**1/2

"Tabloid"...Errol Morris' doc about...well...Joyce McKinney and her "love" for a young Mormon in the 1960's that led to charges of kidnapping and rape...her rape of the young man???? Truth IS stranger than fiction...repeatedly. And the film is hysterical in the bargain. Morris continually finds ways to make your jaw drop and to elicit uproarious laughter. Recommended!***

Finally from South Korea.."Poetry" This won the screenplay award at Cannes. It's too long and could use some judicious editing. Jeong-hee Yoon is lovely as the grandmother trying to find some beauty in her existence and dealing with and grandson that is less than stellar.**1/2

Additional notes:I was surprised that Julian Schnabel's "Miral" didn't show. I was sure it would. And people that are a lot smarter than I am about this stuff had said that it would.

I heard that Kelly Reichardt's "Meek's Cutoff" starring Michelle Williams just missed being a part of the festival lineup; that they just ran out of places to put stuff in the program. Too bad, I would have liked to have seen it since the early word is really positive and I really like Michelle Williams.

I also heard good things about "Inside Job'" "Incendies" and "Precious Life."

I'll do a comparative wrap-up of the success of this Blog's prognostications in the next couple of days. Just a quick note: It was pretty good this year!

And finally, I don't think it was 2007 (which, for me, is the measure of the quality of the fest...Juno, Into the Wild, Diving Bell, Persepolis, The Savages, Band's Visit and more)...but it certainly may have been the 2nd best overall of the five that I have attended.

Now, as we have for the past couple of years, this blog will morph into an awards season tracker for the films that played at TFF #37. From the early buzz, it seems that Telluride may play it's biggest role in Oscar night in many a year...maybe its biggest ever.

And as always...I can't wait till next year and TFF 38!

Let It Go

The first two films are in for TFF #37 and neither one created much heat.

First of the evening was Stephen Frear's English Rom Com "Tamara Drewe." Some laughs. Serviceable performances...except for Bill Camp as the American writer focused on the work of Thomas Hardy. Camp is the standout performance here. 2 and 1/2 stars.

Next up: Mark Romanek's "Never Let Me Go" featuring Carey Mulligan, Andrew Garfield and Keira Knightley. I've been intrigued about this film for some time...but...it just doesn't deliver. You can sense that Romanek is shooting for an understated emotional tone and a leisurely pace banking on a big emotional wallop/payoff at the end...problem is, that never happens. It's slow. It telegraphs the story. It doesn't engage and it just doesn't allow its cast to do much. 2 stars...

Not a surprise is the announcement tonight that the fest is sneaking Danny Boyle's "127 Hours" In attendance (as we surmised) Boyle, actor James Franco and climber/film subject Aron Ralston. "127 Hours" is scheduled twice tomorrow.

The Calm Before...

Taking the opportunity to rest after a late night last night and what will probably be another one tonight. Opted not to see Patron's Special Screening of "Chico and Rita" The plan, for now is to hit the Opening Night Feed on Colorado Ave. then get in Stephen Frears "Tamara Drewe" and Mark Romanek's "Never Let Me Go" tonight.

Tomorrow will probably include Peter Weir's "The Way Back." That will depend (as so much of the rest of the weekend will) on the TBAs...

And a quick shout out to two wonderful Kentuckians we met this morning Jim and Kay Park...lovely people and big film fans!

3 Hours Til Go Time

"Official" release of Telluride lineup is starting to be revealed. Kris Tapley of Incontention.com tweets:

From: @kristapleySent: Sep 2, 2010 12:34p
Confirmed for Telluride: The Way Back, Never Let Me Go, Biutiful, King's Speech, Illusionist, Carlos, Another Year, Tamara Drewe, Tabloid.

The Bus Pulls Out in 28 Hours

Natalie Portman in "Black Swan and Jim Sturgess in "The Way Back."

We're very close to headin' west. Contacted all my Telluride peeps and started the process of loading the car. Buzzing with excitement!

The latest news is continuing references that both "Black Swan" and "The Way Back" will be part of the Telluride film program this weekend. YES...

So...as an academic exercise...let's ask the question, "WHO" will be at Telluride this weekend as opposed to what films...because, of course, I am hopelessly starstruck.

The following are some of the most anticipated films that have been bandied about as being on Telluride's list this year, their directors (who are almost always at Telluride for at least part of the weekend) and the main talent associated with the film (who may or may not be there...but it would be cool if they were).

"127 Hours" Dir: Danny Boyle. Talent: James Franco...note...wouldn't surprise me to see the actual hiker Aron Ralston there.

"Black Swan" Dir: Darren Aronofsky. Talent: Natalie Portman (Oscar Buzz?), Mila Kunis, Vincent Cassel.

"Miral" Dir: Julian Schnabel. Talent: Frieda Pinto, Willem Dafoe.

"Never Let Me Go" Dir: Mark Romanek. Talent: Carey Mulligan, Andrew Garfield, Keira Knightley.

"The Way Back" Dir: Peter Weir. Talent: Colin Farrell, Ed Harris, Jim Sturgess.

"The King's Speech" Dir: Tom Hooper. Talent: Colin Firth (Osar Buzz), Geoffrey Rush (Oscar Buzz), Helena Bonham Carter

"Biutiful" Dir: Alejandro Gonzalez Innaritu. Talent: Javier Bardem (Oscar Buzz) (and wouldn't it be cool if past TFF tributee and current Mrs. Bardem...Penelope Cruz...tagged along???)

"Another Year" Dir: Mike Leigh. Talent: Jim Broadbent, Lesley Manville (Oscar Buzz).

"Tamara Drewe" Dir: Stephen Frears. Talent: Gemma Arterton

Makes your head swim a little, doesn't it? So....LOAD THE BUS..Ok, my Toyota...

One Week To Go

Colin Firth in "The King's Speech"

Anne Thompson at Indiewire (and on her way to the Venice Film Fest) essentially confirms "127 Hours," "Black Swan," Miral," "The King's Speech'" and "Never Let Me Go" on the list for TFF #37.

Those 5 would potentially make a great Telluride Film Festival all on their own.

Add to that the tantalizing hint this morning from Australia and our guess that we might see Peter Weir's "The Way Back"...could be phenomenal.

Another Day Closer...

Ben Affleck and Jeremy Renner in "The Town." Will that town be Telluride???

The 37th Telluride Film Festival is now only 16 days away and anticipation is building. Yesterday Jay A. Fernandez of The Hollywood Reporter had a big article with title guesses... Here's that link again:

http://tinyurl.com/2g6o29v

This afternoon, Kristopher Tapley at Incontention.com had a big post about Venice, Toronto, New York and (in the 5th paragraph, by extension) Telluride. That link is here:

http://tinyurl.com/2evdmbt

Putting the information together and doing some deductive reasoning you can come up with a possible Telluride list that would be potentially phenomenal. Two things stand out from the Tapley article. His comment that you can deduct the from the Toronto list and that Fernandez may have given away much of the lineup yesterday. So from that basis, what do you end up with??? Here are possibles that seem to be the logical extension of that information:

"Another Year" from Mike Leigh

"Biutiful" from Alejandro Gonzalez Innaritu

"Black Swan" from Darren Aronofsky (that also relies on inferences from Anne Thompson at Indiewire)

"The Illusionist" from Sylvan Chomet

"Inside Job" from Charles Ferguson

"The King's Speech" from Tom Hooper

"Miral" from Julian Schnabel (at Venice but could overlap and we've been saying it for months)

"Never Let Me Go" from Mark Romanek

"Tamara Drewe" from Stephen Frears

"The Town" from Ben Affleck (at Venice but could overlap)

"127 Hours" from Danny Boyle (you gotta think it plays TFF like Slumdog did)

"Casino Jack" from George Hickenlooper

"You Will Meet a Tall Dark Stranger" from Woody Allen

Tapley's article does make it pretty clear that Eastwood's "Hereafter," Goldwyn's "Conviction," Madden's "The Debt," Joffe's "Brighton Rock," Redford's "The Conspirator," and Mitchell's "Rabbit Hole" will NOT play in Telluride. And, of course, we had already pretty much ruled out Coppola's "Somewhere," Taymor's "The Tempest," and Fincher's "The Social Network."

Not on anyone's list anywhere...The Coen's "True Grit" and Malick's "The Tree of Life."

But if the above list is anywhere close...WOW!

Finally, a bunch of internet traffic agog today over the trailer for Aronofsky's "Black Swan". Here's the youtube link to it:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5jaI1XOB-bs

16 days...

Two and a Half Weeks

Will Stephen Frears comedy be playing at 9,000 feet in 2 and 1/2 weeks?

A big speculative post tonight from Jay Fernandez in The Hollywood Reporter that is very, very tantalizing. You can find the entirety of the article here:

http://tinyurl.com/2g6o29v

Check it out.

Of note: Fernandez says, among other things, that he expects to see Danny Boyle's "127 Hours" which this space has been predicting for some time now. Additionally, he suggests the likelihood of Mark Romanek's "Never Let Me Go" and Darren Aronofsky's "Black Swan" which have also appeared in this space previously as possible TFF #37 suspects.

That's not all. Fernandez also points out the possibility of Stephen Frears "Tamara Drewe," Mike Leigh's "Another Year," and Charles Ferguson's documentary "Inside Job" as possibles that we have also highlighted here.

A few surprises included for Telluride Film on Fernandez's list include Woody Allen's "You Will Meet a Tall Dark Stranger" which we had all but written off as well as Sylvan Chomet's animated "The Illusionist."

If these all showed at SHOW #37...that would be quite a festival indeed.