Carnage Slipping Away/Cannes Titles Reconsidered/The SPC Film List/What About?/Hammond Dittoed?

Good Morning from Colorado Springs!  Heading home today after a great show from Steve Martin and The Steep Canyon Rangers last night.

CARNAGE SLIPPING AWAY

Word from multiple sources yesterday afternoon that Roman Polanski"s "Carnage" will open the New York Film Festival.  That puts a dagger into its heart for all practical purposes in as far as Telluride is concerned.  NYFF will have required exclusivity for booking it as the opener.  So, Goodbye Jodie!  Goodbye Kate!  Goodbye Christoph and John. 

Can't say that I'm really surprised though.


CANNES RECONSIDERED

With the announcement earlier this week that the Toronto International Film Festival Special Presentation list included "Habemus Papum" (We Have a Pope), it seems we might have to reconsider some of the other titles of films that played at Cannes and that could conceivably be in Telluride in September. 

In addition to "Habemus Papum," ( IMDb: http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1456472/) I think we might give a slight chance to three other Cannes films:

Polisse (a Police procedural written and directed by one time actress Maiwenn Le Bosco..she was The Diva in "The Fifth Element")  IMDb: http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1661420/

Footnote (dueling father/son Jewish scholars dir. Joseph Cedar) IMDb: http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1445520/

and, of course, Gus Van Sant's "Restless" featuring Mia Wasikowska.  IMDb: http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1498569/

 THE SPC SLATE

Sony Pictures Classics most commonly has a significant presence at Telluride.  Last year for example:

Inside Job
The Illusionist
Of Gods and Men
Tamara Drewe
Incendies
Another Year

But this year...maybe not as much.  To wit:

Carnage...at Venice and it would be a surprise to show up anywhere else, much less Telluride.
A Dangerous Method...at Toronto and Venice and I'll bet that's it.
The Skin I Live In...after Cannes, I was dubious.  Now I think it has a 60/40 shot at T-ride
Footnote...lukewarm reception at Cannes, but a thin SPC slate makes it more likely.
Restless...the same note here as for Footnote above.
In Darkness...we know almost nothing...WWII rescue film.
Damsels in Distress...closing film for Venice...so it's off the table.

And I think that's it as far as what SPC has available in its stable right now.  Kind of hard to believe.

AND WHAT ABOUT???

Three really interesting sounding films that aren't on the Toronto list;

Angelina Jolie's directing (and writing) debut "In the Land of Blood and Honey"
John (Shakespeare in Love) Madden's "The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel"
and John Hillcoat's (The Road/The Proposition) "The Wettest County"

Where are these?  Done?  Undone?  Headed to Telluride?  Somewhere else?  New York's Film Fest perhaps.

I don't know, but I am interested.

HAMMOND DITTOED

I reported earlier this week that Pete Hammond is adamant that Jason Reitman's "Young Adult" starring Charlize Theron will NOT play ANY of the festival circuit, including what I thought was a virtually certain stop in Telluride.

Jeff Wells at Hollywood Elsewhere picked up on that report late in the week and repeated it.  But I have to say, Wells seems kind of dubious...a sliver of doubt?

Check the Wells story and see what you think:
 http://hollywood-elsewhere.com/2011/07/adult_surprise.php

Things We Know (maybe?)/Toronto First Pass

Howdy, Sports Fans...

THINGS WE KNOW (maybe?)

Toronto's International Film Festival announced a large portion of their lineup yesterday.  Not all of it.  There are likely still more films to be named to the TIFF play list over the next few weeks.  But the Canadians did name 10 Galas and 40+ Special Presentations and that churned up the waters the last 24 hours.

In that churning we found confirmation (via Ioncinema) that we can pretty confidently say that we know three films that WILL BE IN THE SHOW.

Ioncinema reports that "The Artist" written and directed by Michael Hazanavicius and starring Cannes Best Actor winner Jean Dujardin will play in Telluride (as I have been predicting since it bowed in Cannes in May).

Also reported for Telluride: Tilda Swinton's Oscar-buzzy performance in "We Need to Talk About Kevin" from Brit Lynne Ramsey (director and co-writer) and ...I'm very excited about this...Ioncinema insists that Nicolas Winding Refn's "Drive" ( Hossein Amini scripted)  starring Ryan Gosling, Cary Mulligan (Carey, come back to Telluride!) and possible Oscar nominee Albert Brooks will roll into Telluride as well.

Both "The Artist" and "Kevin" have been on my "Ten Bets" list this summer.  "The Artist" has been consistently in the top five...

Validation?  Vindication?  Some other word that starts with a V?

Initially I had discounted "Drive's" chances of playing at Telluride despite glowing reviews out of Cannes, the knock on it was that it was too much a genre piece.  But after seeing the trailer last week, I began to think it had a real shot at The SHOW.  Then I tumbled across a Kris Tapley reference to a screening and a note that it had played at the LA Film Fest and my expectations crumbled.

Now, I'm jacked up all over again.

Also, an all but certain death blow to any chances that Lars Von Trier's "Melancholia" would make the TFF #38 list.  A tweet earlier today that it would screen in LA and a friendly message from Film Blather's Eugene Novikov telling me that "Melancholia" was screening in L.A. this afternoon to qualify for Oscar consideration means that our earlier thought that it would not among the films in the San Juans this Labor Day was the correct assessment.

So..."The Artist," "Drive" and "We Need to Talk About Kevin" IN...Melancholia OUT.

TORONTO: A FIRST LOOK

TIFF announced it's first wave of films today.  I have a lot of links below.  You can gorge yourself on Torornto lists and analysis.  I'll have some as well over the next three days or so.

Here is the lineup as announced today (via Rope of Silicon)...10 Galas and 40+ Special Presentations:

Opening Film:
From the Sky Down [dir. Davis Guggenheim]

Galas:

Albert Nobbs

Albert Nobbs [dir. Rodrigo Garcia]
Butter [dir. Jim Field Smith]
A Dangerous Method [dir. David Cronenberg]
A Happy Event [dir. Remi Bezancon]
The Ides of March [dir. George Clooney]
The Lady [dir. Luc Besson]
Moneyball [dir. Bennett Miller]
Peace, Love and Misunderstanding [dir. Bruce Beresford]
Take this Waltz [dir. Sarah Polley]
W.E. [dir. Madonna]


Special Presentations:

11 Flowers [dir. Wang Xiaoshuai]
50/50 [dir. Jonathan Levine]
360 [dir. Fernando Meirelles]
The Artist [dir. Michel Hazanavicius]
Americano [dir. Mathieu Demy]
Anonymous [dir. Roland Emmerich]
A Better Life [dir. Cedric Khan]
Burning Man [dir. Jonathan Teplitzky]
Chicken with Plums [dir. Marjane Satrapi, Vincent Paronnaud]
Coriolanus [dir. Ralph Fiennes]
Countdown [dir. Huh Jong-ho]
Dark Horse [dir. Todd Solondz]
The Deep Blue Sea [dir. Terence Davies]
The Descendants [dir. Alexander Payne]
Drive [dir. Nicolas Winding Refn]
Elles [dir. Malgoska Szumowska]
The Eye of the Storm [dir. Fred Schepisi]
Friends With Kids [dir. Jennifer Westfeldt]
Habemus Papam [dir. Nanni Moretti]
Headhunters [dir. Morten Tyldum]
Hick [dir. Derick Martini]
The Hunter [dir. Daniel Nettheim]
Jeff, Who Lives at Home [dir. Jay Duplass, Mark Duplass]
Killer Joe [dir. William Friedkin]
Like Crazy [dir. Drake Doremus]
Machine Gun Preacher [dir. Marc Forster]
Martha Marcy May Marlene [dir. Sean Durkin]
Melancholia [dir. Lars von Trier]
The Oranges [dir. Julian Farino]
Pearl Jam Twenty [dir. Cameron Crowe]
Rampart [dir. Oren Moverman]
Salmon Fishing in the Yemen [dir. Lasse Hallstrom]
Shame [dir. Steve McQueen]
A Simple Life [dir. Ann Hui]
The Skin I Live In [dir. Pedro Almodovar]
Take Shelter [dir. Jeff Nichols]
Ten Year [dir. Jamie Linden]
Trishna [dir. Michael Winterbottom]
Twixt [dir. Francis Ford Coppola]
Tyrannosaur [dir. Paddy Considine]
We Need to Talk About Kevin [dir. Lynne Ramsay]
Where Do We Go Now? [dir. Nadine Labaki]
Woman in the Fifth [dir. Pawel Pawlikowski]

With the leaks of the probable films expected at Venice (Venice's official announcement comes Thursday) we can say some things with an element of certainty.

Past experience indicates that in addition to "The Artist," "Drive" and "Kevin"we can expect 5-8 of the above Toronto films to also play Telluride and maybe 2 Venice titles as well (and those can overlap...as I expect will happen with Todd Solondz's "Dark Horse")

Dark Horse

I still think Alexander Payne's "The Descendants" is a virtual certainty for Telluride. However, I have been equally certain that Jason Reitman's "Young Adult" would follow the same path he trekked with "Juno" and "Up in the Air" including its spot at # 4 on this week's Ten Bets list.  Late last night I got Pete Hammond's post at Deadline Hollywood about Toronto and the whole fall fest scene and he FLAT SAYS NO "YOUNG ADULT" at Telluride.  Quoting from his story now:

"I would have bet this film (which Paramount just dated for Dec. 9) would show up in Toronto, but I have confirmed it definitely won't be riding the fest circuit -- a first for Reitman. Don't look for it in Telluride either despite being Reitman's "good luck" festival where future Best Picture nominees Juno and Up In The Air had wildly successful unofficial premieres."

Pete's going to know more than I do.  But I have to say, it makes me sad.  I was really looking forward to seeing "YA" at T-ride and passing words with Mr. Reitman and Ms. Cody.  I did in 2007 with both (Reitman introduced me to Cody) and again with Reitman in 2009.  I also got in a really good question about the music used for the credit sequence during the Q & A which made the room laugh including Alexander Payne and former AMPAS Pres. Sid Ganis...but, alas, it would seem, not this year.

The body of Hammond's post is here (and it's pretty informative):
http://www.deadline.com/2011/07/hammond-oscar-contenders-jockey-for-prime-film-fest-exposure-or-not/



Toronto Galas also playing at Venice:
A Dangerous Method, W.E. and The Ides of March

Toronto Special Presentations also playing Venice:
Dark Horse, Chicken with Plums, Killer Joe, and Shame  and maybe Coriolanus (that's unclear and may have to wait for the official announcement on Thursday).

And then there are the films that weren't on either Toronto's list today or the sneaked Venice lists of the past two days:
Cameron Crowe's "We Bought a Zoo"
Paolo Sorrentino's "This Must Be the Place"
Jason Reitman's "Young Adult"
Phyllida Lloyd's "The Iron Lady"
Simon Curtis' "My Week with Marilyn"
John Hillcoat's "The Wettest County"
John Madden's "The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel"
Gus Van Sant's "Restless"
and Bruce Robinson's "The Rum Diary"

What about these films?  Telluride-bound?  NY Film Fest?  TBA later for Venice or Toronto?  Not ready?  All of these are possible answers.

And word from a couple of sources today the "On the Road" and "The Grandmasters" would not be ready for the fall festival threesome of Telluride/Toronto/Venice.

Also missing from either Venice or Toronto...the Big 5: "Hugo," "War Horse," "J. Edgar," "Girl with the Dragon Tattoo" and "Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close."

Links to Toronto stories and analysis:

Rope of Silicon:
http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/article/2011-toronto-international-film-festival-unveils-spectacular-selection-galas-special-presentations

The Playlist:
http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/archives/moneyball_360_butter_ides_of_march_a_dangerous_method_lead_tiff_11_line-up/

The Hollywood Reporter:
http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/toronto-film-festival-lineup-george-215274

Awards Daily:
http://www.awardsdaily.com/2011/07/george-clooney-madonna-sarah-polley-toronto-announces/

Movie City News:
http://moviecitynews.com/2011/07/toronto-international-film-festival-announces-stellar-line-up-of-galas-and-special-presentations/

Thompson on Hollywood:
http://blogs.indiewire.com/thompsononhollywood/2011/07/26/toronto_2011

Hollywood Elsewhere:
http://hollywood-elsewhere.com/2011/07/toronto_2011_ga.php

Hit Fix:
http://www.hitfix.com/blogs/awards-campaign/posts/moneyball-albert-nobbs-the-descendants-among-toronto-film-festival-2011-debuts



 More Toronto/Venice impact analysis coming tomorrow!

Venice Sneak Peek/Machine Gun Preacher/Young Adult Date

Good Morning from Middle America!

VENICE SNEAK PEEK

The interwebs were lousy yesterday with leaked lists of the majority of the expected Venetian film lineup.  Ioncinema was first with "predictions" of the lineup.  Moments later Variety had the story with the actual films.  Several other outlets then relayed the information.  I have included links to IndieWire's and Rope of Silicon's versions of the story below. 

The bottom line is that the following films are expected to play at Venice (their official announcement will come Thursday and will likely include a few other films not on the list reported today):

The Ides of March directed by George Clooney (opener)

In Competition:


“Alps,” directed by Yorgos Lanthimos
“A Burning Hot Summer,” directed by Philippe Garrel
“Carnage,” directed by Roman Polanski
“A Dangerous Method,” directed by David Cronenberg
“Dark Horse,” directed by Todd Solondz
“The Exchange,” directed by Eran Kolirin
“Faust,” directed by Alexander Sokurov
“Himizu,” directed by Sion Sono
“Killer Joe,” directed by William Friedkin
“Last Day on Earth,” directed by Abel Ferrara
“The Moth Diaries,” directed by Mary Harron
“Poulet aux prunes,” directed by Marjane Satrapi and Vincent Paronnaud
“Quando la notte,” directed by Cristina Comencini
“Seediq Bale,” directed by Wei Te-sheng
“Shame,” directed by Steve McQueen
“Terraferma,” directed by Emanuele Crialese
“Texas Killing Fields” directed by Ami Canaan Mann
“Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy,” directed by Tomas Alfredson
“L’ultimo terrestre,” directed by Gipi
“W.E.,” directed by Madonna
“Wuthering Heights,” directed by Andrea Arnold

Apparently there are strong indications that Stephen Soderbergh's "Contagion" will also play in some portion of the Venice Festival.

That, in all likelihood dramatically reduces the chances we'll see these films in Telluride.  Expect to see one or two of them.  If I were guessing (and I am) I would rate these films as the most likely to play both places (in order of likelihood): 1) Dark Horse, 2) Shame, 3) Wuthering Heights, 4) Chicken with Plums, 5) The Exchange, 6) Faust , 7) Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy, 8) W.E., 9) A Dangerous Method, 10) Carnage.

Films that may have seen an increase in the chances that we'll see them at Telluride include:
Le Havre, The Wettest County, We Bought a Zoo, This Must Be the Place, Melancholia, The Artist, We Need to Talk About Kevin, Coriolanus, Moneyball, The Rum Diary, Albert Nobbs, Young Adult, The Iron Lady, The Descendants, My Week with Marilyn, The Kid with a Bike, The Skin I Inhabit (or Live In) and The Deep Blue Sea.

Big Films that are likely off the Telluride scope: Hugo, War Horse, Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, and J. Edgar...(though I could make some kind of case for any of them).

Walter Salles "On the Road" apparently won't be "ready" for Venice.  if that's true, it's also unlikely to be ready 3 days later for Telluride.

We'll have more insight when Toronto begins to announce its lineup (which appears to be just moments away) and Thursday when the official Venice lineup is announced.

Here are links to the Venice story from Rope of Silicon:
http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/article/venice-film-festival-2011-competition-titles-revealed-left-toronto?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=venice-film-festival-2011-competition-titles-revealed-left-toronto

and IndieWire:
http://www.indiewire.com/article/reports_david_cronenberg_roman_polanski_and_madonna_heading_venice_film_fes/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed

MACHINE GUN PREACHER, A TELLURIDE FEATURE?

Word  from The Playlist at IndieWire yesterday that "Machine Gun Preacher"  will open in limited release in NYC and LA on Sept. 23.  Director Marc Forster reportedly wants some awards season push for the film which stars Gerard Butler.  What makes me think it might show up at The SHOW?  It's a true life redemption tale and Forster was at Telluride in 2004 with "Finding Neverland" before he started to do a couple of big budget films (Quantum of Solace, World War Z).  Maybe he comes back this year.

Read the story form The Playlist here:
http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/archives/first_look_at_gerard_butler_in_marc_forsters_machine_gun_preacher

Machine Gun Preacher's IMDb page is here:
http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1586752/

A DATE FOR YOUNG ADULT

Jason Reitman's "Young Adult" starring Oscar winner Charlize Theron will open in limited release on Dec. 9 according to The Hollywood Reporter.  That keeps it on track as a likely candidate for being a part of this year's Telluride Film Festival.  THR reports that Paramount opened "The Fighter" the same weekend last year leading one to conclude (not surprisingly) that "Young Adult" is expected to be included in this year's awards conversation.  "Young Adult" was written by Oscar winner Diablo Cody.  She and Reitman collaborated in 2007 on "Juno".

The Hollywood Reporter story is here:
http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/charlize-theron-starrer-young-adult-215106

The Playlist also has the story here:
http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/archives/jason_reitmans_young_adult_starring_charlize_theron_patrick_wilson_hits_on/

Young Adult's IMDb page is here:
http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1625346/

Tintin Trailer/Fassbender's Jump/Dreaming/Tree of Life

Good Morning Everyone from New Mexico!

We took down Kris' one woman exhibition yesterday in Taos, NM at the fantastic Trading Post Cafe and Gallery.  Eat there.  It's terrific and tell Kimberly hello.  Sounds like Kris will have the opportunity to return with another show in the future so she was very happy after to be invited back after having the series of food still lifes hanging there for 6 weeks.  Good day.

TINTIN TRAILER

This morning The Playlist posted a link to the teaser/trailer to the "other" Steven Spielberg film coming out later this year.  The unwieldy title is :"The Adventures of Tintin: The Secret of the Unicorn" which sounds kind of goofy.  The film uses motion capture animation and Peter (Lord of the Rings) Jackson is a producer.  The trailer looks very cool, however.  The link to the story and trailer is here:
http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/archives/watch_new_tintin_trailer_looks_like_the_indiana_jones_sequel_we_should_have/

The Tintin IMDb page is here:
http://www.imdb.com/media/rm2977741056/tt0983193

Now, I don't really think that there's any chance that this will play in Telluride's 38th edition of the SHOW...but it has dominated a lot of discussion about whether it meets the AMPAS standards for being an "animated" film. 

And it looked cooler than I though it would...

FASSBENDER IS FAST

I passed along the information last week that Michael Fassbender (who has a couple of films on the list that could play T-ride this year: "A Dangerous Method" and "Shame) had exited Danny Boyle's 2013 film project "Trance" and that Boyle was looking to snag last year's Telluride tributee and Best Actor Oscar winner Colin Firth for that role.  Now comes word, also via The Playlist, that Fassbender has moved into another commitment.  He's now expected to be in Brandon Gleeson's directorial debut entitled "At Swim-Two-Birds."  You gotta love the title.

The Playlist story is linked here:
http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/archives/michael_fassbender_joins_brendon_gleesons_at-swim-two-birds/

DREAM SLATE

So what films that DO have a chance at playing Telluride this year would make my "dream" slate of films?  What am I just really hoping will be there?

Three films that have excellent prospects to be a part of the fest that I am definitely looking forward to and that would be on that "dream list" are Alexander Payne's "The Descendants," Jason Reitman's "Young Adult" and Michael Hazanavicius' "The Artist".

Films whose prospects are sketchy that I would love to see on the SHOW list are: Ralph Fiennes' directorial debut of Shakespeare's rarely performed "Coriolanus," George Clooney's sophomore directing gig "The Ides of March"  and David Cronnenberg's "A Dangerous Method."

Then there are four big Oscar baity type films that have almost 0% chance to be in Telluride, but it would be cool if any of them made a bow there:

Leo DiCaprio on the set of "J. Edgar"

Eastwood's "J. Edgar"

Spielberg's "War Horse"
Scorsese's "Hugo"
and Stephen Daldry's "Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close"

What about you?  What films are YOU looking forward to as we rush headlong into awards season?

TREE OF LIFE

Finally saw Terrence Malick's  Palme D'Or winner last night.  Still processing it.  My initial impression is that the Cannes jury was probably right.

Have a great Monday everyone!

Diablo Directs/Tinker Tailor Has A Trailer/Pathe at Telluride

Diablo Cody purportedly the morning after her Oscar win for Juno (via Thompson on Hollywood)

DIABLO WILL DIRECT

We have been speculating for a long time that we're pretty likely to see "Young Adult," the Diablo Cody penned, Jason Reitman directed dramedy featuring Charlize Theron at this year's Telluride Film Festival.  The Pair teamed up in 2007 at T-ride to put "Juno" on the path to success.  And Reitman returned to Telluride in 2009 with "Up in the Air."  So, although I don't think that it's a lock, I do think it's very likely. 

In the midst of all of this speculation came the news last week that Reitman was already set for his next project..."Labor Day."  I immediately slated it as a possible selection for TFF #39. 

Now word all over the Internet yesterday that Cody will slide into the director's chair herself for her next script.  Cody has penned a comedy entitled "Lamb of God" that she will calling the shots for (word is that Reitman will also be a producer for this film).  Consequently, I'll be adding it to the "possibles" list for next year's Telluride Film Festival.

Here are a couple of links to posts about the announcement yesterday:

From HitFix:
http://www.hitfix.com/blogs/awards-campaign/posts/diablo-cody-will-make-her-directorial-debut-with-lamb-of-god

The Wrap:
http://www.thewrap.com/movies/column-post/diablo-cody-make-feature-directorial-debut-lamb-god-28699

Thompson on Hollywood:
http://blogs.indiewire.com/thompsononhollywood/2011/06/29/mandate_buys_diablo_cody_script_lamb_of_god_for_her_to_direct

And from Cody herself:
http://honesttoblr.tumblr.com/post/7073255285/change-of-direction

TINKER TAILOR SOLDIER TRAILER

Tomas Alfredson's "Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy" has already started to generate a lot of buzz for possible Oscar love, especially Gary Oldman who plays the role of George Smiley.  There has been some thought that it could possibly be on the list of films for the 38th Telluride Film Festival or perhaps a "sneak".  Yesterday, a teaser/trailer started popping up in many places and it looks terrific. 

I have included the link for the embedded trailer at The Playlist.  Playlist also says that TTSS is a virtual lock for the Venice Film Festival, which, as I've said before in this space, isn't a death sentence in as far as playing at T-ride, but probably reduces the chances that will happen.  Expect one or two films to make the crossover between Venice and Telluride.

Here's the link to The Playlist post and the trailer...enjoy.
http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/archives/watch_get_all_kinds_of_goosebumps_with_outstanding_teaser_trailer_for_tinke/

The TTSS IMDb page is here:
http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1340800/

OUR CONTINUING LOOK AT STUDIOS/PRODUCTION HOUSE/DISTRIBUTORS

I've been looking this week at various film companies and their recent connections to TFF to attempt to expose links and make deductive guesses at what we could see in September.  Today let's examine the French film outfit Pathe...

Pathe films at the Telluride Film Festival over the past 4-5 years:

2006: Volver
2007: The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
2008: Slumdog Millionaire
2009: Farewell, Bright Star
2010: The Illusionist, 127 Hours

So what do they have their fingers on that could play in 2011?  Two films are possible.  Both played at the Cannes Film Festival, but neither is a cinch.  More likely is probably Pedro Almodovar's "The Skin I Inhabit."  It was generally well received at Cannes and Almodovar films have had a significant presence at Telluride over the years...but remember, his last film "Broken Embraces" did NOT play at TFF.

The other Pathe possibility is "Pater" (Father) directed by Alain Cavalier which was a virtual non-entity as far as response from Cannes was concerned.  "Lukewarm" might be the best way to sum up the reaction it received there.  Ioncinema's collective critical scorecard had it with an anemic 2.1.  So, my feeling s that it is an unlikely presence at TFF #38.

Tomorrow we'll look at another French film company that also plays at Telluride and see what they have to offer as TFF #38 possibilities.

Ten Bets/Diablo's Dream Deferred/War Horse???/12,000 Views

Any chance we'll see this at Telluride?

TEN BETS

The Telluride Film Festival's 38th edition starts in just a hair over 2 months (Sept. 2 to be exact) and I thought I'd take a whack today at a list of the ten films that I think have the most likelihood of playing as a part of the festival.  Then, over the next 8 weeks I'll try to update it each week and see how close we can actually get to the films that show at The SHOW.  In order of greatest likelihood (at least according to me):

1) The Descendants
2) The Artist
3) The Kid with a Bike
4) Young Adult
5) Le Havre
6) A Trip to the Moon
7) Gazing Into the Abyss
8) Dark Horse
9) We Have to Talk About Kevin
10) Shame

Check back next Monday and see if there are any changes.

DIABLO'S DREAM DEFERRED

Last week (June 20) I passed on the information that Oscar winning writer Diablo Cody dreamed of penning a screenplay based on the life of Beach Boy Brian Wilson.  Now, it seems she's been beaten to the punch.  News this week that River Road in the person of Bill Pohlad in addition to John Wells were going forward with the same idea with Oren Moverman  (The Messenger) to do the script.  You can find that story from The Wrap here:
http://www.thewrap.com/movies/column-post/river-road-make-brian-wilson-biopic-28538

Telluride chances for #39 or #40 would be pretty good as Pohlad has been a prime supporter of the Festival over the years. 

WAR HORSE AT TELLURIDE???

Made you look.  Seriously, I don't really think it's a likely candidate to show during Labor Day Weekend, but if I had to I could make a case for considering the possibility and here it is:
1) Wants to be Oscar Bait
2) But has no "names"  in the cast to speak of (biggest "name" is probably Emily Watson)...
3) Based on a play...with big horse puppets...no puppets in the movie, so it's dicey...
4) The Kennedy/Marshal Company is involved (no surprise, they often are involved in Spielberg's projects)
5) Kathleen Kennedy and Frank Marshall are big supporters of the Telluride Film Festival
6) No other Festival buzz that I've tripped to...So...

Still, I'd be stunned if it's playing at The Chuck...


"MISSING PIECES"

Watched Kenton Bartlett's very personal film last night and am still mulling it over.  Review to come shortly...

12,000 VIEWS

Over the weekend this blog passed it's 12,000th view.  You can tell that TFF #38 is getting closer because my traffic is picking up...

Among items in tomorrow's blog...a focus on two companies and what they may have for The SHOW this year.

Herzog on Death/Moneyball Trailer/Skin/Diablo's Dream/Noah

Charlize Theron starring in "Young Adult"

After a quiet Sunday, a number of items to pass on to you today:

WERNER'S DOC ABOUT DEATH ROW

Variety reported this morning that  German Production company ZDF has signed onto the Werner Herzog documentary "Gazing into the Abyss."  The doc is being produced by The Discovery Channel folks for American television.  But I would not be surprised to see at least some of it on the playbill for TFF #38.  Herzog is a constant on the Telluride Film playlist and the festival likes to have docs on the bill of fare.  As for it being developed for TV rather than theatrical release, well, TFF has peeked at some of Ken Burns TV documentary projects over the years.  So it wouldn't be out of line for Herzog's doc to show there.
The project focuses on interviews with Texas death row inmates.  The IMDB site for the Herzog project (where it's still listed by the title "Death Row') is here:
http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1843894/

MONEYBALL TRAILER

Last week we saw the first bits of the trailer for "Moneyball," the baseball film from Bennett Miller starring Brad Pitt, Jonah Hill and Philip Seymour Hoffman.  Here's the full trailer without the Entertainment Tonight stuff:
http://movies.yahoo.com/movie/1810166670/video/25625800

The "Moneyball" IMDB page:
http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1210166/

SKIN TRAILER

Speaking of trailers, here's the teaser for Pedro Almodovar's "The Skin I Inhabit (or "Live In"...depending)."  Thanks to Anne Thompson:
http://blogs.indiewire.com/thompsononhollywood/2011/06/20/trailer_watch_the_skin_i_live_in_teaser_is_crazy_sexy_scary/?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter&utm_content=Twitter

Skin's IMDB:
http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1189073/


DIABLO'S DREAM

Oscar winner and former Telluride guest (2007/Juno) Dibalo Cody was a guest on a panel yesterday where she revealed that her dream gig/screenplay would be a Brian Wilson (Beach Boys) biopic.  Cody (who I met in 2007 at the festival thanks to an introduction from Jason Reitman) is set to see the releases of her next film "Young Adult" this fall.  It's another collaboration with Reitman and stars Charlize Theron and Patrick Wilson.  I think there's a reasonable chance that we'll see it in T-ride.  The Playlist has a nice post about the panel:
http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/archives/diablo_cody_dreams_of_brian_wilson_biopic_teases_her_own_directorial_ambit/

The "Young Adult" IMDB page:
http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1625346/


ARONOFSKY'S "NOAH"

Darren Aronofsky was the toast of last year's festival with his "Black Swan" for which Natalie Portman won the Best Actress Oscar.  Now he says that his NEXT BIG THING  may be his magnum opus...a re-telling of the story of Noah.  The IFC website has some interesting tidbits along those lines here:
http://www.ifc.com/news/2011/06/darren-aronofsky-noahs-ark-christian-bale.php

Dangerous Method/More Reitman News/Tree of LOOOOOONG Life/Another Coen's Musical

Kate Winslet and Josh Brolin...The Cast of "Labor Day"? 

Maybe I spoke too soon...

"A DANGEROUS METHOD" RECONSIDERED

Earlier this week, I all but wrote off the chances that we'd see David Cronenberg's study of Sigmund Freud and Carl Jung starring Viggo Mortensen and Michael Fassbender as a part of the program at Telluride this year.  My thinking: Cronenberg's film is in place for a Venice unveiling and, acknowledging Cronenberg's Canadian roots, I expect that the film will be front and center at Toronto.  That, I assumed would probably be enough as far as the fall fests are concerned. 
Until yesterday, that is...
Multiple sources reported a Sony Pictures Classics release saying that the specialty film house has nabbed the U.S. rights for the film.  I have included the link to the Kris Tapley/Incontention.com version of the story here:
http://incontention.com/2011/06/16/sony-classics-picks-up-cronenbergs-dangerous-method/#more-39932
That, alone, would have made me pause to reconsider my thinking as SPC has had a very good relationship with the Telluride Film Festival.  but there was more...
Tapley tweeted just a little while after posting the story the following:

Kristopher Tapley (@kristapley)
Can't wait to see Dangerous Method at Telluride. Surely it'll play peek-a-boo there (but maybe @guylodge will get a look in Venice first).

Well...
Now, I'm not saying that Tapley already has some inside dope, but...his guess is always going to be better than mine because he's wired in...so...put "A Dangerous Method" back on the list of possibles..
And, parenthetically, I'm really glad too, because this film is high on my list of Oscar contenders to see this year.

JASON REITMAN: BUSY DUDE.

Yesterday we had the story that Jason Reitman was positioning himself to direct "Labor Day" and was in pursuit of Kate Winslet and Josh Brolin to star (with various sources reporting the two stars participation at varying levels of certitude...[Weiner reference]).  A higher level of certitude came from Brad Brevet at Rope of Silicon this morning that Winslet and Brolin are on board, but (like me) less certitude that we'll actually see "Young Adult" at Telluride.  The link to the Brevet article is here:
 http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/article/winslet-brolin-join-jason-reitmans-labor-day
Now comes this nugget, again from a number of sources, that Reitman is about to become a script doctor.  He's expected to take a stab at working on the script for Steve Carell's "magician" film project tentatively titled "Burt Wonderstone."  I've included the link to the Hollywoodnews.com version of that story here:
http://www.hollywoodnews.com/2011/06/17/jason-reitman-hired-to-polish-steve-carell-comedy/
So sounds like Reitman will be very, very busy in what's left of 2011.

THE TREE OF LIIIIIIIIFFFFFE...
News from The Playlist this morning that Terrence Malick is STILL not done tinkering with "The Tree of Life."  The film, which we were talking about in terms of release and Oscar potential 2 years ago was the Cannes Palme D'Or winner last month and officially went into release on May 27th with the nationwide rollout continuing through June.  The Playlist post this morning says Malick wants to do a 6 hour version of the film.  Check the story at:
http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/archives/too_much_of_a_good_thing_terrence_malick_preparing_6_hour_cut_of_the_tree/

AND TODAY'S COEN BROTHER'S MUSICAL: NO COUNTRY FOR OLD MEN: THE MUSICAL
Featuring the hit showtunes: "Call It, Friendo!" "The Ultimate Badass," "Agua!" and "Hard to Take Its Measure."

Jason Reitman News/Moneyball/Oscar Calculations and BIG LEBOWSKI:THE MUSICAL

Jason Reitman's next project: "Labor Day."  Will we see it Labor Day 2012?

Always looking ahead is where we start today...

JASON REITMAN'S NEXT PROJECT AFTER "YOUNG ADULT"

I'm obviously including Jason Reitman's "Young Adult" on the 2011 Tellruride Film Festival "probable" list.  After all, he's had such great success with "Juno" (4 Oscar noms including Picture and Director, Diablo Cody wins Original Screenplay, makes a bazillion dollars) and "Up in the Air" (6 Oscar Noms including Picture, Actor, Original Screenplay and Director) at TFF that I'd be goofy not to think it'll play this fall (though I'm not as sure of that as you might think).  Now, The Playlist is reporting this morning that Reitman's next project is set.  Entitled "Labor Day," The Playlist says that Josh Brolin and Kate Winslet are attached to star in the adaptation of the book by Joyce Maynard.  The link for The Playlist story is here:
http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/archives/kate_winslet_josh_brolin_join_jason_reitmans_labor_day/
And, as I'm sure you've guessed...put it on our Telluride 2012 speculation list.

MORE MONEYBALL SCUTTLEBUTT
Bennett Miller's "Moneyball" has been on my radar as a Telluride film possibility for some time and with the peak at it via Entertainment Tonight that has happened this week, interest elsewhere has been heightened.  Jeffrey Wells at Hollywood Elsewhere is the latest to comment.  His take is here:
http://hollywood-elsewhere.com/2011/06/brad_and_jonah.php?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter&utm_term=Daily/Hourly+Hollywood+Meditation&utm_content=Opinion,+wisdom,+tin+foil,+attitude


OSCAR CLEARINGHOUSE...THE INCREDIBLY EARLY EDITION
Over this past week, I've tumbled across a couple of Oscar Best Picture predictions since we're about half way through the year.  I've started the process of compilation and put it together, because I'm a little crazy?  Herewith your early, early line on the Best Picture race with information drawn from Incontention.com, Scott Feinberg, Film Misery and The Envelope at the LA Times (and roughly using each sources top 20 or so and what I think are Telluride possibles in CAPS AND BOLD):

ON ALL FOUR LISTS: 9 films..."THE DESCENDANTS," "The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo," "Hugo Cabret," "THE IDES OF MARCH," "THE IRON LADY," "J. Edgar," "The Tree of Life," "War Horse," "YOUNG ADULT."

ON THREE OF THE LISTS: "CARNAGE," "MONEYBALL," "THE ARTIST," "EXTREMELY LOUD AND INCREDIBLY CLOSE."

ON TWO OF THE LISTS: "Super 8," "We Bought a Zoo," Contagion," "Like Crazy," "TINKER, TAILOR, SOLDIER, SPY," " THE BEST EXOTIC MARIGOLD HOTEL."

ONE VOTE WONDERS: "50/50," "Harry Potter/Deathly Hallows #2," "CORIOLANUS," "DRIVE," "The Help," "Martha Marcy May Marlene," "Midnight in Paris," "One Day," "Take Shelter," and "THE WETTEST COUNTY IN THE WORLD."

And with yesterday's announcement from the Academy peeps, who knows how many Best Picture nominations we will ultimately see (somewhere between 5 and 1o under the new rules).

TODAY'S BROADWAY MUSICAL BASED ON A COEN BROTHERS FILM..."THE BIG LEBOWSKI: THE MUSICAL"
Hit songs will include: "Gutterball of Love," "Not on the Rug, Man," "I'm the Dude, Duder, Duderino," "You Want a Toe, I Can Get You a Toe," "Not on the Shabbos," and "Nihilists on Parade!"

How Many Nominations?/Moneyball/Rudderless/COENS MUSICAL #4

George Clooney and Ryan Gosling on the set of "The Ides of March" (thanks to thehollywoodstory.com)

A busy 24 hours in terms of news and such that may or does have a bearing on the Telluride Film Festival. 

I DON'T KNOW HOW MANY BEST PICTURES THERE ARE!
First, the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS...the Oscar people) announced in the middle of last night that beginning this year there will be between 5 and 10 Best Picture nominees.  For most of its existence the Academy had nominated 5 films each year.  Then the last two years, they have nominated 10 (they used to nominate more than 5 way back in the beginning days of Oscar as well). 

Well, now, this year if will be at least 5, not more than 10 and could be any number of films in between.  So in a "down" year...(like 2008) maybe only 5 get nominated.  In a good year (like last year) maybe 7 or 8 or 9.  In a great year you might get 10.  Apparently it will all hinge of the percentage of first place votes a picture gets during the nominating process.  The threshold is going to be 5% if I'm reading their press release correctly.  You can read that release here:
http://www.oscars.org/press/pressreleases/2011/20110614a.html

Most critical reaction this morning seems generally positive, but it will make prognostication a bit trickier...

ANOTHER EARLY, EARLY OSCAR PREDICTION!
Next, The LA Times is out today with its list of 15 films it says are possible Oscar contenders.  That list and descriptions of the films are here:
http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/awards/2011/06/oscars-preview-15-front-runners-for-best-picture.html
TFF#38 suspects on The Envelope's list are: "The Artist," "The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel," "Carnage," "The Descendants," "Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close," "The Ides of March," "The Iron Lady," and "Young Adult."
Also on their list that I don't realistically think will be at Telluride (and why):
"War Horse"-Spielberg doesn't need to festival and hasn't "Tellurided" (though his compadres Kathleen Kennedy and Frank Marshall are both members of the festival's Board of Advisors and are frequently in Telluride for it).
"The Tree of Life"-Terrence Malick's film was released May 27.
"Like Crazy"-a Sundance Festival hit...which almost totally precludes it (though not 100%- "An Education" played both Sundance then Telluride, but it's unlikely).
"J. Edgar"-Clint Eastwood's biopic about the former FBI director starring Leonardo DiCaprio. It's been a long time since Clint has been to Telluride and he doesn't need to "festival" for people to pay attention to this film.
"Hugo Cabret"-Martin Scorsese also doesn't need the T-ride exposure..and it's in 3D...which I'm guessing is not something that Telluirde has prepared technically to project.
"The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo"-Despite the fact that director David Fincher was a tributee in 2008, I have to doubt that he'll return with this American adaptation of the Swedish phenomena..if he didn't pop "The Social Network" at Telluride, I have a difficult time believing he'd bring "Tattoo" to the San Juans.
"A Dangerous Method"-David Cronenberg's film about Freud and Jung starring Viggo Mortensen and Michael Fassbender.  I believe Cronenberg will play Venice and Toronto and be happy with that (despite Viggo being a Tributee in 2009).

MONEYBALL!
One film NOT on the LA Times Envelope list today is Bennett Miller's "Moneyball."  I think it has a shot to play at Telluride because it IS Bennett Miller's first feature since "Capote" which was at Telluride in 2005.  The Playlist has a nice story about its trails and tribulations and a set of clips shown on last night's Entertainment Tonight...here that is:
http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/archives/watch_first_brief_clips_from_moneyball_starring_brad_pitt_jonah_hill/

RUDDERLESS!
Yesterday we teased our minuscule connection to the film "Rudderless."  We already know that William H. Macy is set to direct, but perusing the IMDB entry we also find that casting director and music supervisor (and the music is crucial to the film) are signed on as well.  Casting is in the hands of Ronnie Yeskel whose previous credits include: "Reservoir Dogs," "Pulp Fiction," and "The Long Kiss Goodnight" among others.  The music supervisor is Debra Baum who has been involved with the music for "The Divine Secrets of the Ya Ya Sisterhood," "A Walk to Remember," and "3000 Miles to Graceland' again among others.

COENS BROTHERS MUSICALS CONTINUE...
Despite the fact that I'm pretty sure most of you are tired of the joke...it's till making me laugh, so, with apologies...as you are now  aware the next Coen Brothers film may be a musical.  I've had some fun this week with suggesting that we go back over the Coen canon and re-make all their films as musicals...today's example: "Burn After Reading: The Musical" featuring such hit tunes as: "Intelligence is Relative,"  "Raw Data," "Osborne Cox:Secret Agent Man" and "I Did Not See That Coming."

AND FINALLY...
The Playlist has an article about David Lynch and his opening a "Mullholland Drive" based theme night spot in Paris...and what they think would be a better use of Lynch's time.  It's kind of funny.  Here's the link:
http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/archives/five_things_wed_rather_see_david_lynch_do_then_open_his_mulholland_drive/

More Early Oscar Predix/Le Havre Goes Weinstein/Rudderless/AND ANOTHER COEN MUSICAL!

Poster for Simon Curtis' Telluride possible: "My Week with Marilyn"

Ioncinema is hinting this morning that The Weinstein Company will be picking up "Le Havre."  It was a critically and publicly popular film at Cannes last month and a film that I think has a better than average chance of being at this year's Telluride Film Festival.

Also, The Playlist is reporting that Christian Bale and Darren Aronofsky may be getting together for Aronofsky's "Noah" project.  http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/archives/christian_bale_in_talks_to_star_in_darren_aronofskys_noah/

Film Misery has its first stab at Oscar predictions up this morning.  You can find those here:
http://www.filmmisery.com/?p=7500
On the list there are these TFF#38 possibles: "The Descendants," "The Iron Lady," "The Ides of March," "We Need to Talk About Kevin," and "Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy."  Other TFF #38 "maybes" on his list of other possible Best Picture nominations would be: "Drive," "Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close," "The Artist," "Moneyball," "The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel," (John Madden's new film, Fox Searchlight is involved) "Young Adult," "My Week with Marilyn," and "Carnage."

I also discovered that Scott Feinberg had his first attempt up a couple of weeks ago.  You can find that here:
http://scottfeinberg.com/2011projections1
Added films from the Feinberg list of Telluride interest that are not included in Film Misery's list: "Coriolanus" and"The Wettest County in the World."

And now for something completely different (and I feel OK about including this in the blog because it is such a Telluride Film Festival story)...In November 2009 I received an email from someone who actually read this blog in the run-up to TFF#36.  He said he enjoyed it and was an aspiring screenwriter, had some things working, etc. etc.  His name: Casey Twenter.  Would I want to read the script he was currently working on?  Me...I said sure.  Entitled "Rudderless," I read it, liked it and we struck up an email, twitter, facebook friendship.  Got to meet Casey last summer in Kansas City (during the National Speech Tournament).  We had lunch and a really pleasant discussion about film, and the background about how "Rudderless" had come to be up to that point.

Back in 2009, Casey (and his writing partner Jeff Robison) were looking for financing to independently produce the film.  Over the last year and a half, that effort has ebbed and flowed and taken on a number of different forms.  Now, it looks increasingly like the film will get made and not just out of Casey and Jeff's pockets and fund raising.  Some big, BIG names are already on board and there are other names in the mix.  Some of them I can talk about, some not.

The biggest reveal that I am allowed to pass on is that veteran actor/writer/director and Oscar nominee (for Fargo..which fits right in with this week's Coen Brothers musical rant that I've been on) William H. Macy has signed on to direct and produce.  You read that right.  WILLIAM H. MACY!

There are other Oscar nominee/winner types in talks for the male lead and the main female supporting character that I can't get into...yet. But it is all terribly exciting.  As things progress I'll pass it on when I can.

My hope is that "Rudderless" gets made, is great and in a Kharmic full circle ends up at Telluride's 39th Film Festival next year.

You can find the "Rudderless" IMDB page here:   http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1798243/
The "Rudderless" facebook page is here: http://www.facebook.com/#!/pages/Rudderless-The-Movie/194390831736

Again, as more information becomes available, I'll pass it along in this space.

Now...as you're almost certainly aware, we've had hints the last few days that the Coen Brothers next film might be a musical, which necessarily has caused me to speculate that if it were successful that we should go back and re-imagine their body of work in that light.  I've already made some suggestions for "Raising Arizona:The Musical" and "Fargo:The Musical. 

And now...the next Coen Brothers musical..."O Brother, Where Art Thou?" which is already got some music that you'll just have to include like: "Down to the River to Pray," and "Man of Constant Sorrow."  But because it'll be a big Broadway style musical it will have to include new musical numbers such as: "I'm with you Fellas," "Gopher, Everett?," "I'm a Dapper Dan Man," "Dumber than a Bag of Hammers," and "Damn, We're in a Tight Spot."

More Coen's musicals to come...

The Wettest County???

Shia LaBeouf and extras on the set of "The Wettest County in the World"

A really interesting post from The Hollywood Reporter yesterday about the upcoming Oscar race.  That article necessarily includes a ton of films that I've put on the Telluride film watch list.  Including: "The Artist'" "Young Adult," "The Descendants," "The Ides of March," "The Iron Lady," "Moneyball," "Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close," "My Week with Marilyn," "Carnage," and new to the discussion in the article is John Hillcoat's ("The Road'" "The Proposition,") "The Wettest County in the World."

 "Wettest County" is listed by IMDB (http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1212450/) as having a 2012 release date but author Greg Kilday apparently thinks there is at least some possibility that it might be in play for a 2011 Oscar qualifying run.  Hillcoat's presence at Telluride in 2009 and The Weinstein Company's participation make it a possibility if it's ready for a run at TFF #38.

You can see all of Kilday's article here:
http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/oscars-2012-why-meryl-streep-197024

Meanwhile, as obsessed as I am becoming with the new Paul Thomas Anderson project, I noticed this post from The Playlist yesterday which hints that the next Coen Brothers project may include a serious music component...a Coen Brothers Musical?  What would that be like?  Here's a link to that article as well:
http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/archives/the_coen_brothers_say_they_are_working_on_a_new_music-based_film/

Another film to stalk incessantly for the next few months...YES!  And maybe I can compose the score  for some of the Coen's past films.  After all, if this new thing is a success, why not "Raising Arizona:The Musical"  featuring such hits as: "Boy, You Got a Panty on Your Head," "Not Unless Round is Funny,"  "The Huggies Shuffle," and the show stopping closer, "Maybe It Was Utah."

I can see it now...http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lBVesAXZPzA

Some Films Reconsidered for TFF #38

Ralph Fiennes modern version of Shakespeare's "Coriolanus"

Kris Tapley at Incontention.com has his first stab at Oscar contenders up and it makes us pause and take another look at some films that we have previously mentioned as Telluride possibles but are currently lost in the fog that surrounds the upcoming Cannes Film Festival (starting up a week from today).

You can find Tapley's entire initial Oscar Contender list at:

http://incontention.com/the-contenders-best-picture/

On his list we are reminded of the following that might make their way to TFF #38:

"Carnage" with Jodie Foster, Christoph Waltz, Kate Winslet and John C. Reilly. Based on Yasmina Reza's award winning play (God of Carnage) and directed by Roman Polanski. You have to think that this could be a big time contender for Oscar next February. Although IMDB has it scheduled to release in 2012. The fact that it is set to be distributed by Sony Pictures Classics raises its profile as a possible Telluride film.

"Coriolanus" directed by and starring Ralph Fiennes. Also starring Gerard Butler, Jessica Chastain (The Tree of Life), Vanessa Redgrave and Brian Cox in one of Shakespeare's least produced plays. From The Weinstein Company...which you figure has to have at least one film play at Telluride.

"The Descendants" Despite having not been chosen for Cannes, you still have to think that Alexander Payne's first directorial effort since 2004's "Sideways" is still a pretty good bet to be in Telluride. Also, it's a Fox Searchlight project...so that boosts its chances too.

"My Week with Marilyn" Michelle Williams as Norma Jean from The Weinstein Company.

And the Jason Reitman/Diablo Cody collaboration starring Charlize Theron, "Young Adult."

In the "still wishful thinking dept." Clint Eastwood's "J. Edgar, " Martin Scorsese's "Hugo Cabret," and George Clooney's "The Ides of March."

Next week, Cannes and the critical response to what's happening there...

And Now the 38th Telluride Film Festival

George Clooney and Alexander Payne on the set of "The Descendants"

83rd Oscars done...Check

TFF #38 passes on sale (started this week)...Check

TFF #37 Yearbook arrives in mail...Check

That means it's time to begin ferreting out the possible films for next Labor Day's Film Soiree in the San Juan Mountains of southwest Colorado. T-minus 6 months and counting until TFF #38 unspools at 9,000 feet.

So, what might we see? Thanks to the fine folks at Indiewire, Awards Daily, Hollywood Elsewhere, Film Misery, Rope of Silicon, Ioncinema and Incontention.com, I'm going to try to take a stab at some of next September's lineup in Telluride.

I looked back to last year's two columns in March when I tried this and found that I hit on "127 Hours'" "Another Year," Biutiful," "Black Swan," and "Never Let Me Go." So 5 of the 15 I took a stab with actually ended up in Telluride. I'd be pretty happy if I got that lucky again this year.

So without further ado...here's what might be at Telluride in September....

"The Descendants"- I had this on the list a year ago...didn't happen because it wasn't released. Now it's on the list for 2011. Why? It's director Alexander Payne with his first feature since Sideways in 2004. Payne was the 2009 Guest Director for the festival. You have to believe that if "The Descendants" is any good and since Fox Searchlight is the distributor that if they want it to play for Oscars a year from now its chances at being in Telluride are pretty good. The film stars George Clooney as a father with family issues and is set in Hawaii. Could we see Mr. Clooney on Colorado Ave. on Labor Day weekend? Maybe. Because I have a theory that he may be trying a double whammy with his own directorial effort...which leads to guess #2...

"The Ides of March"...directed by Mr. Clooney based on the political play "Farragut North' by Beau Willmon (adapted by Clooney and writing/producing partner Grant Heslov who brought you "Good Night and Good Luck" in 2005) . Clooney is featured as well as Ryan Gosling, Phillip Seymour Hoffman and Marisa Tomei. Why? The only rationale I have is synchronicity...If "Descendants" is there, then maybe Clooney kills two birds with one festival. And he'd get to re-unite on panels with the director of our third guess (and Clooney's director in 2009's "Up in the Air")...

"Young Adult" directed by Jason Reitman and written by Diablo Cody and starring Charlize Theron. You have to think that this pair that struck like lightening in Telluride in 2007 would try to replicate that experience (and Reitman had great success 2 years later when "Up in the Air" premiered there). The only hesitance I have putting this on the list is that it seems soooo obvious as to be no surprise at all. So the greater surprise might be a decision to go some other direction. But it's hard to argue with success and also, it may depend on Reitman's sense of superstition.

"Love" Michael Haneke returns after directing 2009's brilliant "The White Ribbon." You have to think that if it's ready (IMDB has it listed as a 2012 release) and on par with "Ribbon" (TFF #36) and "Cache (TFF #32) that it would be in the mix. "Love" stars Isabelle Huppert and Jean-Louis Trintignant.

"Moneyball" the story of Billy Beane and the Oakland A's baseball team starring Brad Pitt and Phillip Seymour Hoffman (...hmmm) and directed by Bennett Miller could show at The SHOW. Miller had terrific success with "Capote" (which, of course, starred Hoffman and earned him the Oscar....again...hmmmm) at Telluride #32 in 2005. It would also allow a mini-Ocean's 11-12-13 reunion between Pitt and Clooney.

"Shame" from writer-director Steve McQueen. His "Hunger" premiered at Telluride in 2008 and featured Michael Fassbender. Fassbender re-teams with McQueen for this film. So you have to think that because McQueen has some history at Telluride, that he could return with this. Oh, and the film also stars Telluride Belle of the Ball from the past two years, Carey Mulligan...she's been in town for both "An Education" (2009) and "Never Let Me Go." (2010) Three years in a row? I think it 's a real possibility. (If you see me in Telluride in September, ask me about my funny Steve McQueen story).

And speaking of "An Education," Lone Scherfig, is back this season with "One Day" starring Anne Hathaway and "The Way Back's" Jim Sturgess. It's story blurb on IMDB makes it sound a whole lot like "Same Time, Next Year" the Alan Alda/Ellen Burstyn comedy from 1978. Put it down as a possible for TFF #38.

"Wuthering Heights" Andrea Arnold who was a part of TFF in 2009 with "Fish Tank" is back directing this adaptation of the Emily Bronte classic.

"Chicken with Plums" the newest from Marjane Satrapi and Vincent Paronnaud who charmed Telluride audiences in 2007 with their wonderful animated "Persepolis"

"The Exchange" from director Eran Kolirin who was also a part of Telluride in 2007 with the delightful "The Band's Visit."

Pedro Almodovar who has often been a participant in Telluride Film Festivals could return for the first time sine 2006's "Volver" with his latest "The Skin That I Inhabit" starring Antonio Banderas as a revenge-seeking plastic surgeon.

"The Congress" from Ari Folman who last was in Telluride with his"Waltz with Bashir" in 2008. Although IMDB lists it as a 2013 release.

Others that could show (just because I have a "vibe" that they might): "Albert Nobbs" from director Rodrigo Garcia starring Glenn Close. Michelle Williams in "My Week with Marilyn" from director Simon Curtis. "A Dangerous Method" from director David Cronenberg featuring TFF # 36 tributee Viggo Mortensen and the aforementioned Michael Fassbender as Sigmund Freud and Carl Jung. "Coriolanus" the little seen Shakespearean play from actor-turned -director Ralph Fiennes.

In the "I'd love it, but there's no way it will be in Telluride" Department: Martin Scorsese's "Hugo Cabret," Clint Eastwood's "J. Edgar'" Stephen Daldry's "Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close," Tom Hank's "Larry Crowne," and Cameron Crowe's "We Bought a Zoo."

And finally, Terrence Malick's "The Tree of Life" which I have been stalking obsessively for nearly two years is set to open May 27th...right after the Cannes Festival. So, now, maybe I start stalking the movie he just shot here in Oklahoma! IMDB lists it as a 2012 release. TFF #39 anyone?