Oscar Clearinghouse #13...And On With The Show

Overture, curtain, lights,

This is it, the night of nights

No more rehearsing and nursing our parts

We know every part by heart

Overture, curtain, light

This is it, we'll hit the heights

And oh what heights we'll hit

On with the show this is it

Tonight what heights we'll hit

On with the show this is it.

2 days left before Oscar!!!

And the expectations addressed last week have not really changed...My picks remain the same

Picture: SLUMDOG (TFF 2008)

Director: DANNY BOYLE/SLUMDOG

Actor: Mickey Rourke/Wrestler (edging out Sean Penn...my TFF buddy from 2007)

Actress: Kate Winslet/Reader

Supporting Actor: Heath Ledger/Dark Knight

Supporting Actress: Penelope Cruz (TFF 2006)/VC Barcelona

Original Script: Dustin Lance Black/Milk

Adapted Script: SIMON BEAUFOY/SLUMDOG

Additionally look for Slumdog to get Film Editing, Cinematography, Score and Song...and if it's a real sweep...Sound Mixing and Sound Editing...most pundits don't think the last two are going to happen...but maybe...

I'm guessing Button wins 2 or 3 tech awards...

WALTZ WITH BASHIR (TFF 2008) wins for Foreign Film

Check back next week...I'll do an Oscar post mortem for 2008's films in what will probably be the last post until sometime after the State Speech Tournament here in Oklahoma...I have a small part to play in its execution...

Oscar Clearinghouse # 10...Last Call!

Less than 24 hours from nomination announcements and here is the last post prior to that. I have checked the charts one last time and compiled the information from: The Envelope (LA Times), And the Winner Is, Everything Oscar, In Contention, Gurus of Gold (Movie City News), Awards Circuit, Film Experience, Film Misery and The Oscar Guy. Here's what they tell us and my guesses going into tomorrow morning's announcement...

THE BIG EIGHT

Best Picture: Slumdog, Button, Milk, Frost/Nixon and The Dark Knight are the cumulative chart picks...Doubt and Wall-E are your best chances at an upset. My picks mirror the 5 from the charts.

Best Director: Boyle/Slumdog, Fincher/Button, Van Sant/Milk, Howard/Frost/Nixon, Nolan/Dark Knight. The charts now point to Darren Aronofsky/The Wrestler as the ONLY chance at a surprise in this category. My picks are the charted 5. And this would be a relatively rare case of the 5 Best Picture nominees matching the 5 directing nominees.

Best Actor: Penn/Milk, Rourke/Wrestler, Langella/Frost/Nixon, Eastwood/Gran Torino, Jenkins/The Visitor... I've been pointing at these 5 for a while now. I've thought for quite some time that Brad Pitt was going to miss out and the charts say that now as well. I agree with the charted 5 and in addition to Pitt being a possible "surprise" also add Leonardo DiCaprio...

Beat Actress: The charted 5 get messy after the first 3. Streep/Doubt, Winslet/Rev Road and Hathaway/Rachel Getting Married seem certain. The last two spots chart-wise at this point go to Jolie/Changeling and Hawkins/Happy-Go-Lucky. Melissa Leo and Cate Blanchett would be your "surprises". My picks are Streep, Hathaway, Winslet, Jolie and Leo/Frozen. I've thought for some time that the Telluride trio of Blanchett, Hawkins and Thomas would be shut out and I still think that's likely.

Best Supporting Actor: Ledger/Dark Knight, Brolin/Milk, Hoffman/Doubt, Downey, jr./Tropic Thunder, and Franco/Milk. "surprise" nominees: Michael Shannon and Dev Patel. My guess is that Patel knocks Franco out of the nominations and the rest of the charted four remain your nominees.

Best Supporting Actress: Charts say: Cruz,/VC Barcelona, Davis/Doubt, Tomei/Wrestler, Henson/Button and Winslet/Reader..."surprise"...Amy Adams or Rosemarie DeWitt...My guess...Cruz, Davis, Winslet, Tomei and Adams bumping out Henson

Original Script: Charts say: Milk, Rachel Getting Married, VC Barcelona, Wall-E, and Happy-Go-Lucky. Surprises...The Visitor, The Wrestler, Burn After Reading. I think this is the hardest category to call this year. Especially since the WGA announced their nominees in the category. My picks (staying with what I've said before) remain: Milk, VC Barcelona, Wall-E, The Wrestler and Happy-Go-Lucky.

Adapted Script: Charts: Slumdog, Button, Frost/Nixon, Doubt, The Dark Knight. Possible stunners: The Reader, Revolutionary Road. My picks are the chart (as was the pick for the WGA noms).

TECHNICALS:

Art Direction: Charts: Button, Dark Knight, Australia, Changeling, The Reader.

My Picks: Button, Dark Knight, Changeling, Doubt, Milk

Cinematography: Charts: Slumdog, Dark Knight, Button, Rev Road, Australia

My Picks: Slumdog, Dark Knight, Button, Rev Road, The Reader

Costumes: Button, The Duchess, Rev Road, Changeling, Australia

My Picks: Button, Duchess, Rev Road, Changeling, Milk

Film Editing:Charts: Slumdog, Button, Dark Knight, Frost/Nixon, Milk

My Picks: Ditto

Score: Charts: Button, Slumdog, Wall-E, Milk, Rev Road

My Picks: Button, Slumdog, Wall-E, Milk, Dark Knight

Song: Wrestler, Wall-E, Slumdog, Bolt, Cadillac Records

My Picks: Wrestler, Wall-E, Slumdog, Bolt, Gran Torino

Sound Editing: Charts: Wall-E, Iron Man, Dark Knight, Button, Quantum of Solace

My Picks: Ditto (but come on Slumdog!)

Sound Mixing: Iron Man, Wall-E, Dark Knight, Button, Slumdog

My Picks: Iron Man, Dark Knight, Quantum of Solace, Wall-E, Slumdog

Make Up: Charts: Button, The Reader, Synecdoche NY

My Picks: Button, The Reader, Dark Knight

Visual Effects: Charts: Button, Iron Man, Dark Knight

My Picks: Ditto

Overall the Charts say:

Button 13 noms, Dark Knight 10, Slumdog 8, Milk 8, Frost/Nixon 5, Doubt 4 and The Wrestler 3

My Predictions: Button 12, Dark Knight 12, Slumdog 9, Milk 9, Doubt 6, Frost/Nixon 5 and The Wrestler 4.

Telluride gets 21 or so from Button and Slumdog and adds another 2 for Waltz with Bashir (Animation and Foreign) plus another Foreign (Everlasting Moments)...for a truly stunning showing at Oscar time...

Can't wait for tomorrow morning...

Oscar Clearinghouse #9 Jan. 16...Tech!

Here are the compilations of charts for the 10 technical categories using data from In Contention, Awards Circuit, Film Experience and The Oscar Guy. Also included are Guild nominations where appropriate...as always Telluride films in CAPS AND BOLD:

Art Direction: BUTTON, Dark Knight, Australia, Changeling, The Reader

Lurkers (with a prayer): Revolutionary Road, Indiana Jones 3, Doubt

Guild Notes: Art Director's Guild Noms:

Period Art Direction: Changeling, THE CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON, Doubt, Frost/Nixon, Milk

Fantasy Art Direction: The Dark Knight, Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull, Iron Man, The Spiderwick Chronicles, Wall-E.

Comment: Button, Dark Knight and Changeling seem sure bets. Doubt is probable. Give the last spot to Milk.

Winner: Button

Cinematography: SLUMDOG, The Dark Knight, BENJAMIN BUTTON, Revolutionary Road, Australia.

Lurkers: The Reader, Milk, Defiance

Guild Notes: American Society of Cinematographers:

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, The Dark Knight, The Reader, Revolutionary Road, Slumdog Millionaire.

Comment: Follow the Guild and replace Australia with The Reader for your nominations.

Winner: Slumdog

Costumes: BUTTON, The Duchess, Revolutionary Road, Changeling, and Australia.

Lurkers: The Other Boleyn Girl and Brideshead Revisited

Guild Notes: Costume Designers Guild:

Period Costume Design: Changeling, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, The Duchess, Milk, Revolutionary Road

Fantasy Costume Design: The Dark Knight, The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian, The Mummy: Tomb of the Dragon Emperor

Contemporary Costume Design: Iron Man, Mamma Mia!, Sex and the City, Slumdog Millionaire, The Wrestler

Comment: Button, Duchess, Rev Road, and Changeling are pretty good bets...The 5th spot...let's say: Milk

Winner: The Duchess

Film Editing: SLUMDOG, BUTTON, The Dark Knight, Frost/Nixon, Milk

Lurkers: Iron Man, The Reader

Guild Notes: American Cinema Editors Society:

Drama Film Editing: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, The Dark Knight, Frost/Nixon, Milk, Slumdog Millionaire

Comedy/Musical Film Editing: In Bruges, Mamma Mia, Tropic Thunder, Vicky Cristina Barcelona, Wall-E

Comment: The chart should lead you to the five nominees.

Winner: Slumdog

Score: BUTTON, SLUMDOG, Wall-E, Milk, Revolutionary Road.

Lurkers: Defiance, Indiana Jones 3, Frost/Nixon, The Reader, The Dark Knight.

Comment: I think Dark Knight replaces Rev Road for the nominees.

Winner: Button

Song: The Wrestler, Wall-E, SLUMDOG, Bolt, Cadillac Records

Lurking: Gran Torino, Hamlet 2, Quantum of Solace

Comment: I think the compiled charts get the first four right and that the 5th spot is a real tussle between Cadillac and Gran Torino...I lean toward Gran Torino for the fifth nomination.

Winner: The Wrestler/Springsteen

Sound Editing: Wall-E, Iron Man, Dark Knight, BUTTON, Quantum of Solace

Lurking: Indiana Jones 3, Defiance, SLUMDOG, Valkyrie

Comment: I will default to the chart...but this note: If Slumdog is really steaming along, I wouldn't be all that surprised at another nomination in this category.

Winner: Iron Man

Sound Mixing: Iron Man, Wall-E, Dark Knight, BUTTON, SLUMDOG.

Lurking: Quantum of Solace, Defiance

Guild Nominations: Cinema Audio Society:

Sound: The Dark Knight, Iron Man, Quantum of Solace, Slumdog Millionaire, Wall-E

Comment: Go with the Guild here...

Winner: Iron Man

Make-Up: BUTTON, The Reader, Synecdoche, NY

Lurking: Dark Knight, Hellboy II, Tropic Thunder, The Wrestler

Winner: Button

Visual Effects: BUTTON, Iron Man, Dark Knight

Lurking: Hellboy II, Journey to the Center of the Earth, Australia

Winner: Button

The combined charts say the nomination totals are as follows:

Benjamin Button 13

The Dark Knight 10

Slumdog and Milk 8

Frost/Nixon and Wall-E 5

Doubt 4

The Wrestler, Rev Road, The Reader, Changeling, Australia, and Iron Man 3

Total Telluride nominations excluding Doc, Short Doc and Foreign (which could be 3 more): 24

And finally: If you've read the previous posts you know that I'm guessing that Button loses at least one or two of it's charted nominations and Slumdog picks up one or two...so my prediction is 12 for Button and 9 for Slumdog...Also, I expect Waltz with Bashir to be a certain Foreign nominee and likely Everlasting Moments as well. Revanche is probably unlikely.

The Countdown

Of course, the fun right now is speculating/guessing what films might be in the Festival...and who might be there with those films or as one of the tributees. The only solid guesses that I have run across are Jonathan Demme's first fictional film in some time featuring Anne Hathaway and entitled "Rachel Getting Married". And also Paul Schrader's new directorial effort featuring Jeff Goldblum and Willem Dafoe entitled "Adam Resurrected"...What I'd like to see would include "Revolutionary Road" from Sam Mendes, the new film from the Coen Brothers, Charlie Kaufman's first attempt at directing (with Phillip Seymour Hoffman) called "Synedoche,New York" and "Milk" directed by Gus Van Sant with Sean Penn and Josh Brolin.