Obsessing about the Telluride Film Festival and the film awards season since 2008!
"The best blog out there for predicting what will be going to Telluride."-Matt Neglia, Next Best Picture
"The Nostradamus of Telluride"
-Tim Appelo, Movies for Grownups
"But it's our job." - Anne Thompson, Indiewire
Good Thursday everyone...It's Regional One Act Week in Oklahoma...
OSCAR UPDATES AND LINCOLN
Steven Spielberg's "Lincoln" was a "surprise" screening as a part of the New York Film Festival this week and the Oscar specialists seem to be taken by the film with many recalibrating their view of awards season prospects as a result. Here's a sampling:
Ben Affleck's TFF ##9 hit and current Oscar favorite is set to open tomorrow nationally and "premiered" in NYC this week. Consequently a large number of stories/posts up this last few days about the thriller:
The deadline for entries for the Foreign Language Oscar has come and gone and a record 71 nations have entered a film for consideration. Anne Thompson, HitFix and the LA Times have coverage here:
Screenwriter and soon to be director (and friend of the blog) Casey Twenter and his writing/directing partner Jeff Robison are on the brink of shooting their first feature in Oklahoma City. Production is set to begin on Oct. 13th. They have the film budgeted and cast.
The two budding filmmakers have established a Kickstarter account for additional funding that will primarily be used for upgrading post-production items.
I am very pleased to include the link to that account here and encourage any and all to take a look and get involved. These are good guys and I am thrilled to support a "made in Oklahoma" film project.
Here's the link:
http://www.kickstarter.com/projects/1277883372/the-jogger
I'll continue to update as the film goes into production (they say they plan a 15 day shooting schedule).
More on Monday...have a good weekend!
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Good Monday Everyone, if such a thing is even possible...
Here's this week's FAC on the Oscars for Best Picture as well as Best Actress and Best Actor
BEST PICTURE
1) Argo (1)
2) Silver Linings Playbook (2)
3) Les Miserables (3)
4) The Master (4)
5) Lincoln (5)
6) Life of Pi (7)
7) Beasts of the Southern Wild (6)
8) Amour (8)
9) Zero Dark Thirty (9)
10) Flight (13)***
11) Django Unchained (10)
12) Anna Karenina (12)
13) Promised Land (14)
14) Moonrise Kingdom (11)###
15) Hitchcock (New)***
Dropping Out: The Sessions
Comment: “Flight” takes flight in the last two weeks and the Fox Searchlight announcement that “Hitchcock” will play in awards season has been met with a lot of anticipation. “The Sessions” and “Moonrise Kingdom” suffer as a result.
BEST ACTRESS
1) Jennifer Lawrence/Silver Linings Playbook (1) (Perfect Score)
2) Quevenzhane Wallis/Beasts of the Southern Wild (2)
3) Marion Cotillard/Rust and Bone (4)
4) Keira Knightley/Anna Karenina (5)
5) Emanuelle Riva/Amour (6)
6) Naomi Watts (3)###
7) Helen Mirren/Hitchcock (New)***
8) Meryl Streep/Hope Springs (7)
9) Judi Dench/Best Exotic (New)***
10) Mary Elizabeth Winstead/Smashed (New)***
Dropping Out: Viola Davis, Laura Linney, Maggie Smith
Comment: Two weeks after the first Clearinghouse and no one doubts that Jennifer Lawrence is the odds on favorite to win the category. The “Hitchcock” announcement catapults Helen Mirren into serious consideration.
BEST ACTOR
1) Joaquin Phoenix/The Master (1)
2) John Hawkes/The Sessions (2)
3) Daniel Day Lewis/Lincoln (3)
4) Denzel Washington (4)
5) Bradley Cooper/Silver Linings Playbook (5)
6) Anthony Hopkins/Hitchcock (New)***
7) Jean Louis Trintignant/Amour (7)
8) Hugh Jackman (6)###
9) Jamie Foxx/Django Unchained (9)
10) Bill Murray/Hyde Park on Hudson (8)###
Dropping Out: Philip Seymour Hoffman
Comment: “Hitchcock” momentum in this category puts Sir Anthony Hopkins into play in a serious way. Jackman and Murray seem to be fading. My bet is that the Murray balloon will continue to deflate but that we haven’t seen the last of Mr. Jackman just yet.
ALL THINGS ARGO
With its release this week the "Argo" hype is building dramatically. I have included multiple links to interviews and other pieces about the film, Ben Affleck and its Oscar status...
A big splash of news out of New York this week that the city had subpoenaed unused film from the TFF #39/Ken Burns Documentary "The Central Park Five". Movieline included a couple of posts that explained:
This week's "Coming Attractions" focuses on recent announcements about the next (well, maybe after "Jane Got a Gun") Lynne Ramsay (We Need to Talk About Kevin). Because it's Ramsay and because she's been a Telluride player and because it just sounds...odd...here it is:
Ramsay is setting up to direct a "Moby Dick" adaptation set in space...I do not lie.
Today marks the 600th post of Michael's Telluride Film Blog/The Film Awards Clearinghouse. Thanks for playing! Hope that some of you have enjoyed it these last four years and found it informative and occasionally entertaining.
ARGO NEWS
Bryan Cranston's character poster for "Argo" (Supporting Actor nom please!)
Ben Affleck's "Argo" was the toast of Telluride this year and continues to ride a wave of buzz and popularity following the Toronto Festival. Its roll out is complete next week when it opens nationally on Oct. 12th. I'm looking forward to it as I will likely see it again.
WB has released 6 clips that together provide the set up for the Iranian hostage crisis set thriller that finds itself in the thick of the early awards conversation. You can access those clips below via either Cinema Blend or The Playlist:
Also available is this interview with Affleck from Hollywood News in the midst of the ongoing New York Film Festival (where Ang Lee's "Life of Pi" has been very well received):
And the conclusion you should draw is that Telluride, for better or worse, has the MOST TANGIBLE EFFECT ON THE OSCAR RACE! More than Venice, Cannes, Sundance and even Toronto. Just look at the front runners at this point in 2009, 2010 and 2011. Then there's the whole "Slumdog Millionaire" phenomena that happened in 2008. Some won, some ultimately did not. But if you're a producer/distributor/director and you want/think your film is Oscar worthy, Telluride is almost indispensable as THE PLACE you want your film to drop...
Now, you can argue with whether that's what Telluride should be, is intended to be...whatever...but the proof is in the pudding. And I know there is some resistance in some quarters about Telluride's place in the scheme of awards season. Further, I know that there are some film outlets/individuals that resist going to Telluride for whatever reasons (time, distance, etc.). Bu, seriously, how can you argue with the recent past?
2012 Gurus of Gold Best Picture chart leader the first week of October: "Argo"
In 2011: "The Descendants" (Eventual winner "The Artist" was at #3...still proving my point)
In 2010: "The King's Speech"
In 2009: "Up in the Air"
In part Two, the Gurus weigh in on Best Actress, Actor, Supporting Actress and Actor:
Jeff Wells has a version of Oscar Poker up this week without past partner Sahsa Stone. Scott Feinberg has stepped in for a one time/stand alone appearance. I don't have a clue what went down between Stone and Wells...but it appears that that relationship is very, very done. Stone has said she's moving onto another podcast and Wells is saying Oscar Poker will continue in some capacity...
Here's this week's link to the Wells/Feinberg edition:
Well, you have to hand it to the Academy. They clearly wanted to shake things up for this year's Oscars and almost certainly have done it by tapping comedian/actor/producer/writer/director...etc. Seth MacFarlane as this year's host.
I'm of a split mind here. I've never been a big fan of MacFarlane's "work'. I think the mix of topical satire and gross out humor doesn't play particularly well. Though I do have to say, I mostly enjoyed his hosting gig on Saturday Night Live a couple of weeks ago. Additionally, I understand that the Academy wants a draw for the telecast and is obviously wanting the demographics to go a bit younger...but still...I don't think that this is the way I would have gone.
Here are a couple of links concerning the MacFarlane choice from The Playlist and The Hollywood Reporter:
Scott Feinberg re-tweeted news yesterday that the producers of the Ken Burns led documentary "The Central Park Five" have had he film subpoenaed in the lawsuit that has been brought against New York as a consequence of that case. Here's the link to the New York Times from Scott's tweet with those details:
Earlier this week the Screen Actor's Guild ruled that "Beasts of the Southern Wild", which has been considered a strong contender for recognition this awards season, was ineligible for the SAG ensemble award. Will that affect its Oscar chances? Hard to tell, but Scott Feinberg at The Hollywood Reporter thinks it could. Two stories and links from The New York Times and from THR:
FILM AWARDS CLEARINGHOUSE: UPDATING BEST PICTURE AND DIRECTOR
With this year's Oscar season underway, I have decided to try a new approach to The Film Awards Clearinghouse. What I will attempt is a weekly update of the Best Picture race and added to that a rotation of the other 9 Oscar races (today it's Best Picture and Director) I'll be following until we get to the turn of the new year. At that point, I'll begin to expand to eventually include all 24 categories.
This week's BEST PICTURE and BEST DIRECTION race as determined by collating the predictions of :
Film Experience
Film Misery
Anne Thompson/Thompson on Hollywood
Brad Brevet/Rope of Silicon
Sasha Stone/Awards daily
Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit
Kristopher Tapley/InContention-HitFix
Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter
Peter Knegt/IndieWire
Trailer for "Argo"
BEST PICTURE
1) Argo (last week's spot-1)
2) Silver Linings Playbook (2)
3) Les Miserables (6)***
4) The Master (4)
5) Lincoln (3)###
6) Beasts of the Southern Wild (5)
7) Life of Pi (8)
8) Amour (7)
9) Zero Dark Thirty (9)
10) Django Unchained (10)
11) Moonrise Kingdom (12)
12) Anna Karenina (15)***
13) Flight (13)
14) Promised Land (11)###
15) The Sessions (14)
*** = RED HOT
### = COOLING OFF
"Amour" director Michael Haneke
BEST DIRECTOR:
1) Ben Affleck (2)
2) Paul Thomas Anderson (1)
3) David O. Russell (3)
4) Tom Hooper (6)***
5 ) Steven Spielberg (4)
6) Ang Lee (7)
7) Michael Haneke (5)###
8) Behn Zeitlin (8)
9) Quentin Tarantino (9)
10) Kathryn Bigelow (10)
NEW ADDITION TO TFF HISTORY
I have taken a few moments to add the basic information from TFF #39 top the TFF history page you can find as a part of this blog. That entry is as follows:
2012- Tributes: Marion Cotillard, Mads Mikkelsen,
Roger Corman
Shows:
Argo, Amour, No, The Gatekeepers, Stories We Tell, Rust and Bone, The
Sapphires, Ginger and Rosa, At Any Price, Love, Marilyn, Midnight's Children,
Barbara, The Central Park Five, A Royal Affair, The Hunt, Frances Ha, The
Iceman, Hyde Park on Hudson, The Attack
Guests:
Laura Linney, Ben Affleck, Bill Murray, Dennis Quaid, Ramin Bahrani, Salman
Rushdie, Ken Burns, Wayne Blair, Noah Baumbach, Greta Gerwig, Gael Garcia
Bernal, Peter Sellars, Serge Bromberg, Ray Liotta, Mark Cousins, Roger Michell,
Ariel Vromen, Michael Winterbottom, Shirley Henderson, Leonard Maltin,
Alexander Payne
Click on the link above to look at a brief hsitory of the festival year by year.
SPC AT 20
Sony Pictures Classics is 20 years old and The Hollywood Reporter has a retrospective about the history of the film distributor/production company. It's interesting and reminds one of how much SPC and TFF have been intertwined the past two decades. Take a look:
I've been filing away articles for over a year now on films that I think sound like they might be a Telluride possibility for 2013 or even 2014 and I decided to inventory them this past week to get an idea of what had really caught my eye and what I've already begun to obsess over. I found that I had stashed some info on over 60 films. So over the next few weeks I'll be passing along the 10-12 or so films that have really sparked my interest/curiosity and that I think or hope (or both) may show up at The SHOW in the next couple of years.
Beginning with "Child of God" directed co-written and starring James Franco (who was in Telluride in 2009 with "127 Hours") and Tim Blake Nelson (who supported "American Violet" in 2008).
IMDb lists it as a 2013 release and Rabbit Bandini is listed as the lone production company. Rabbit Bandini had a presence at Telluride this year with "The Iceman".
"The Counselor" stars Michael Fassbender ("Hunger" 2008 and "A Dangerous Method" and "Shame" 2011) and Brad Pitt ("Babel" 2006 and "Benjamin Button" 2009). It's directed by Ridley Scott which may cut against its Telluride chances but is written by Cormac McCarthy which could be a lure. It's distributor is 20th Century Fix which distributed 2011's "The Descendants". It's currently scheduled for a Nov. 15, 2013 release.
Sally Potter's "Ginger and Rosa" was a modest success at best at Telluride based on my informal survey of patrons where it ranked #23 out of #26 shows that were seen by enough respondents to earn a rating/ranking. Most of the positive commentary came for Elle Fanning's performance and that seems to be the motivating factor behind the acquisition of the title by A24 and the buzz that they want to try to position her for Oscar consideration. Seems like a long stretch to me. Links for a multitude of stories/posts about the a24 acquisition and plans from Anne Thompson, The Daily Mail, The Hollywood Reporter, The Chicago Tribune, Screen Daily, ComingSoon.net and Variety are all included here:
The deadline for submissions for consideration for the Foreign Language Oscar is looming (Oct. 1)...and the number of announced films is growing. Rope of Silicon runs the list down for you:
"Amour"
"No"
"A Royal Affair"
"Barbara"
But no "Rust and Bone" as France has chosen "The Intouchables" instead.
INTERVIEW WITH COTILLARD AND SCHOENAERTS AND MCN
The stars of what I thought was ine of the 3-4 best films at this year's Telluride Film Fest, tributee Marion Cotillard and Matthias Schoenarets have been interviewd by David Poland at Movie City News. Check that out here:
With the news that Fox Searchlight is going to release "Hitchcock" (see below), Scott Feinberg of The Hollywood Reporter factors that into his latest Oscar predictions...I've looked at them. He thinks it will have some significant impact. Check it: http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/race/oscars-scott-feinberg-forecast-371171
CANNES HAS A DATE
The Cannes Film Festival has released the date for the 66th Edition along with a peculiarly American take on their promotional poster:
The Independent Film Channel peeps have nabbed distribution for Telluride (and Toronto) hit from Noah Baumbach and Greta Gerwig, "Frances Ha". Reports below from The Movie City News, The Chicago Tribune and Movie Scope:
Denmark has chosen "A Royal Affair" which played at Telluride a few weeks back as a part of the Mads Mikkelsen tribute, as its official entry for the Foreign Language Oscar. It edged out Susan Bier's "Love is All You Need". Mikkelsen was very pleasant to talk to wen I caught him Sunday night of the festival at The New Sheridan Bar. He said he had been amazed at how friendly the entire atmosphere of the festival was.
Here's a post from The Hollywood Reporter about Denmark's announcement:
Metacritic.com posted a lengthy round-up of critical response to a number of films that have played the fest circuit (Telluride, Venice, Toronto) so I have provided that link here: I also included a link to their Cannes round-up from last May that includes a number of films that played at Telluride. You can see the films and links below:
"Amour"
"The Hunt"
"No"
"Paradise: Love"
"Rust and Bone"
"The Sapphires"
NEW OSCAR PLAYERS
There has always been some thought that Gus Van Sant's "Promised Land" might get a shot at an Oscar run and we now know hat is true. What was more surprising this past week was the announcement from Fox Searchlight that they're going to drop the Sacha Gervasi directed Anthony Hopkins starring "Hitchcock" in time for an Oscar run as well.
At some point this last summer I had mentioned both of these as possible Telluride programs depending on whether they were complete or not. Looks like it was close on both of them.
For the second consecutive year Stephen Spielberg will have a film concluding the AFI Film Fest. "Lincoln" has been announced for that spot. Here are links to that story via IndieWire and The Wrap:
My first FAC for the year and I’ve
added and changed a few things. First, I have included Cinematography and Film Editing for as a part of the FAC starting
with this first post. That expends from
what I’ve called The Big 8 categories the last three years to “The Big Ten”.
Also, I took a look back this week
at the predictive success of The FAC for its first four years. I compared the initial projections for 2008,
09, 10, and 11 with the actual nominees for each of those years and found that,
on average, 60% of the predicted nominees actually become nominees. Further, another 21% of actual nominees get
listed as “possible” in the first FAC. 19%
of all nominees don’t show up either place on the first pass.
Also, The FAC was great in 2010
with a 95% success rate for predicted nominees and possible. 2009 was awful with only a 62% success rate.
So, some facts to ponder as we head to the first actual predictions…
Mining the Predictive power of
Kristopher Tapley (InContention/HitFix), Sasha Stone (Awards Daily), Peter
Knegt (IndieWire), Anne Thompson (Thompson on Hollywood), Scott Feinberg (The
Hollywood Reporter), Nathaniel Rogers (Film Experience) , Alex Carlson (Film
Misery), and Clayton Davis (Awards Circuit).
Telluride Films are Bold!
BEST PICTURE (Again this year there
will be 5 to 10 nominees. Last year
there were 9.)
1) Argo
2) Silver Linings Playbook
3) Lincoln
4) The Master
5) Beasts of the Southern Wild
6) Les
Miserables
7) Amour
8) Life of Pi
9) Zero Dark Thirty
10) Django Unchained
11) Promised Land
12) Moonrise Kingdom
13) Flight
14) The Sessions
15) Anna Karenina
Comment: I would bet that the first four are locks
even this early and that one of them win. This could be the most competitive
Best Picture race we’ve seen in a long, long time. After the first four , it’s anyone’s guess. Frankly, I’ll be a bit surprised if Michael
Haneke’s “Amour” is a BP nominee.
BEST DIRECTOR
1) Paul Thomas Anderson/The Master
2) Ben Affleck/Argo
3) David O. Russell/Silver Linings
Playbook
4) Steven Spielberg/Lincoln
5) Michael Haneke/Amour
6) Tom Hooper/Les Miserables
7) Ang Lee/Life of Pi
8) Behn Zeitlein/Beasts of the
Southern Wild
9) Quentin Tarantino/Django
Unchained
10) Kathryn Bigelow/Zero Dark
Thirty
Comment: The top five look
good. I might trade Zeitlein for Haneke.
BEST ACTRESS
1) Jennifer Lawrence/Silver Linings
Playbook
2) Quvenzhane Wallis/Beasts of the
Southern Wild
3) Naomi Watts/The Impossible
4) Marion
Cotillard/Rust and Bone
5) Keira Knightley/Anna Karenina
6) Emanuelle Riva/Amour
7) Meryl Streep/Hope Springs
8) Viola Davis/Won’t Back Down***
9) Laura Linney/Hyde
Park on Hudson
10) Maggie Smith/Quartet
(***it’s unclear whether Davis will
be considered in Lead or Supporting)
Comment: At this point, I think the
only sure bet is Lawrence. Although I
have to say I’d be surprised to see a nomination for any of the women in the 6
through 10 spots.
BEST ACTOR
1) Joaquin Phoenix/The Master
2) John Hawkes/The Sessions
3) Daniel Day Lewis/Lincoln
4) Denzel Washington/Flight
5) Bradley Cooper/Silver Linings
Playbook
6) Hugh Jackman/Les Miserables
7) Jean
Trintignant/Amour
8) Bill Murray/Hyde
Park on Hudson
9) Jamie Foxx/Django Unchained
10) Philip Seymour Hoffman/The
Master***
(***Hoffman is also splitting votes
between Lead and Supporting)
Comment: This is a category that
has been very Telluride-centric over the past several years but that same dominance
doesn’t look likely this year. The top
three guys are probably locks. I’m leery
of a Denzel nomination with no others likely for “Flight”. Cooper is pretty hot coming out of Toronto.
First shameless plug for someone
from The FAC…Jack Black in “Bernie”.
SUPPORTING ACTRESS
1) Anne Hathaway/Les Miserables
2) Amy Adams/The Master
3) Helen Hunt/The Sessions
4) Sally Field/Lincoln
5) Maggie Smith/Exotic Marigold
Hotel
6) Samantha Barks/Les Miserables
7) Kerry Washington/Django
Unchained
8) Vanessa Redgrave/Song for Marion
9) Judi Dench/Exotic Marigold
Hotel***
10) Annette Bening/Imogene
(***Dench also is possible as
either Lead or Supporting)
Comment: Not one Telluride possibility to be found in
this category in our first iteration. I’d
guess Hathaway, Adams, Hunt and Field are all very likely.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
1) Leonardo DiCaprio/Django
Unchained
2) Philip Seymour Hoffman/The
Master***
3) Alan Arkin/Argo
4) David Stratharin/Lincoln
5) Dwight Henry/Beast of the
Southern Wild
6) Matthew McConnaghey/Magic Mike
7) William H. Macy/The Sessions
8) Robert DeNiro/Silver Linings
Playbook
9) Hal Holbrook/Promised Land
10) John Goodman/Argo
(***see Best Actor note above)
Comment: It’s possible that “Argo”
could land more than one nomination in this category. My personal plug here would be for Bryan
Cranston who had some notice form some of the predictors but not enough to
crawl onto the chart. Maybe next time. I’m not sure that any of the top five are
truly locks at this point.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
1) Argo
2) Silver Linings Playbook
3) Beasts of the Southern Wild
4) Lincoln
5) Life of Pi
6) Les Miserables
7) Anna Karenina
8) The Sessions***
9) The Dark Knight Rises
10) Killing Them Softly
(***The Sessions is also getting
substantial votes in the Original Screenplay category. I think it will be in the Adapted category)
Comment: The screenplay nominations are notoriously
difficult to predict even when you get close to the nomination announcement. Still, I might place money on the top four. I'll be pumping for a nomination here for "The Sapphires" if The Weinstein Company decides to drop it into the 2012 awards season.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
1) Moonrise Kingdom
2) The Master
3) Django Unchained
4) Amour
5) Zero Dark Thirty
6) Promised Land
7) The Sessions***
8) Flight
9) Seven Psychopaths
10) Frances Ha
(***See note above concerning “The
Sessions”)
Comment: See note above… This category seems very, very fluid as we
begin. I’m not sure that anything is a
lock except maybe “The Master”. I'm pushing for a nomination for "Frances Ha".
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
1) The Master
2) Life of Pi
3) Lincoln
4) Beasts of the Southern Wild
5) The Dark Knight Rises
6) Anna Karenina
7) Django Unchianed
8) Les Miserables
9) Cloud Atlas
10) The Hobbit
Comment: New category to start this
early and all 10 seem reasonable possibilities.
BEST FILM EDITING
1) Argo
2) Lincoln
3) The Master
4) Zero Dark Thirty
5) The Dark Knight Rises
6) Life of Pi
7) Les Miserables
8) Django Unchained
9) Silver Linings Playbook
10) Beasts of the Southern Wild
Comment: The other new category for this early and
often a key indicator of Best Picture success.
I’m thinking the top five are good guesses but not necessarily carved
into stone.
OTHER OSCAR NOTES
The Gold Derby is up with its first lineup of predictions as well. Find it here:
The first post Telluride Oscar Poker podcast from Sasha Stone (Awards Daily) and Jeff Wells (Hollywood Elsewhere) with guest Tom O'Neil (Gold Derby) has been posted. You can find it at both of these places: http://www.awardsdaily.com/podcasts/oscarpoker/episode92.mp3
