Obsessing about the Telluride Film Festival and the film awards season since 2008!
"The best blog out there for predicting what will be going to Telluride."-Matt Neglia, Next Best Picture
"The Nostradamus of Telluride"
-Tim Appelo, Movies for Grownups
"But it's our job." - Anne Thompson, Indiewire
The 40th Telluride Film Festival is calling for entry submissions now. July 1 and July 15 are the key dates. Dear Cinema.com posted the information this weekend:
More Cannes news this past weekend as it was announced that "Zuluz' will close the fest. Additionally, we have confirmation that April 18th is the date for the announcement of the majority of the lineup. Cannes traditionally has unveiled a number of films that then are a part of the Telluride lineup 3 1/2 months later.
Here's The Hollywood Reporter story on the closing film "Zulu":
And we learned over the weekend that TFF #39 documentary "The Central Park Five" will appear on PBS nation. The film was directed by Ken Burns, his daughter Sarah and her husband David McMahon. PBS linked the YouTube trailer via Twitter this weekend:
And finally, the Oklahoma set film "Rudderless", directorial debut of William H. Macy, is reported to begin shooting in late April with the 20th rumored to be the start date. An extras casting call was held last Saturday at a mall in OKC.
Reportedly, there is still one fairly major role to be cast.
Results from today's voting by the New York Film Critics Circle: (Telluride #39 film(s) in Bold)
Best First Film: How to Survive a Plague
Best Documentary: The Central Park Five
Best Cinematography: Zero Dark Thirty
Best Supporting Actress: Sally Field/Lincoln
Best Supporting Actor: Mathew McConnaughey/Magic Mike and Bernie
Best Animated Film: Frankenweenie
Best Foreign Language Film: Amour
Best Actress: Rachel Weisz/The Deep Blue Sea
Best Actor: Daniel Day-Lewis/Lincoln
Best Screenplay: Tony Kushner/Lincoln
Best Direction: Kathryn Bigelow/Zero Dark Thirty
Best Picture: Zero Dark Thirty
Comments: Boosts for Oscar noms for ZDT, CP5, Field and McConnaughey...even Frankenweenie.
Field and McConnaughey choices are both a bit surprising. Most everyone thought Anne Hathaway was a shoe in this morning and for Oscar. Not many had McConnaughey on their radar for the NYFCC.
Pretty happy to see Bernie get some love...
I would have really liked to have seen the NYFCC peeps go with Rust and Bone in the Foreign category...
The Rachel Wiesz choice is a real surprise...maybe gets her into the Oscar conversation as well.
What was no surprise was the DDL choice for Best Actor. Indiewire reports this was DDL's fourth NYFCC Best Actor award. Mark Harris adds that he also has a Best Supporting Actor nod from NYFCC for A Room with a View/My Beautiful Launderette.
Bigelow's win is a bit of a surprise after the Lincoln log roll looked to be gathering steam.
THE FULL FAC/THE FILM AWARDS CLEARINGHOUSE 2012 #2
For the first time since Sept. 20th I have put together a complete Film Awards Clearinghouse. If you've been reading the blog over the last 5 weeks or so, you've noticed that I have done weekly updates for Best Picture and then additional category updates have come in pairs every week. IE Update #1 was Best Picture and Director. #2 was Best Pic and the Lead Acting categories...etc. But today I have put together the bigger picture...all 10 of the categories that the FAC is monitoring as we continue the run up to the Academy Awards. As always the number in parenthesis to a title is its position vis-a-vis the last posting for that category on The FAC updates and this week I have included, were possible, the films original rank on the first full FAC in brackets. Telluride #39 films are indicated in Bold. [ *** ='s HOT, ### ="s NOT]
The FAC reviews the Oscar predictions of the following to arrive at its "predictions":
Sasha Stone/Awards Daily
Scott Feinberg/The Feinberg Forecast-The Hollywood Reporter
Kristopher Tapley/InContention-HitFix
Anne Thompson/Thompson on Hollywood-IndieWire
Peter Knegt/IndieWire
Brad Brevet/Rope of Silicon
Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit
Nathaniel Rogers/Film Experience
Alex Carlson/Film Misery
So here we go...
BEST PICTURE
1) Argo (1) [1]
2) Silver Linings Playbook (2) [2]
3) Lincoln (3) [3]
4) Life of Pi (6) *** [8]
5) Les Miserables (4) [6]
6) The Master (5) [4]
7) Beasts of the Southern Wild (7) [5] 8) Amour (8) [7]
9) Hitchcock (9) [NEW]
10) Flight (11) [13]
11) Zero Dark Thirty (10) [9]
12) Django Unchained (12) [10]
13) The Sessions (14) [14]
14) Promised Land (15) [11]
15) Anna Karenina (New...sort of) *** [15]
Dropping Out: Moonrise Kingdom [12]
Comments: "Life of Pi" has become a serious player in this prediction model as more people have screened it and the latest TV trailer has begun running. The "Hitchcock" and "Promised Land" booms seem to have cooled somewhat. Again, I'm intrigued, but the trailers for both "Hitch" and "Promised Land" didn't make me immediately think "Best Picture Oscar" whereas the latest "Life of Pi" trailer did.
"Moonrise Kingdom", "The Sessions" and "Anna Karenina" continue to flirt with the bottom couple of spots.
"Argo", "Lincoln", "Silver Linings", The Master", "Life of Pi" and "Amour" were listed by all 9 experts.
BEST DIRECTION
1) Ben Affleck/Argo (2) (perfect score)
2) Steven Spielberg/Lincoln (4) ***
3) Ang Lee/Life of Pi (7) ***
4) David O. Russell/Silver Linings Playbook (3)
5) Paul Thomas Anderson/The Master (1) ###
6) Tom Hooper/Les Miserables (6) 7) Michael Haneke/Amour (5) ###
8) Kathryn Bigelow/Zero Dark Thirty (10) ***
9) Benh Zeitlin/Beasts of the Southern Wild (8)
10) Sacha Gervasi/Hitchcock (New) ***
Comments: This chart may be a better reflection of the vagaries of the Best Picture race as it more clearly shows the heat for "Lincoln" and "Life of Pi" and the reversal of fortune for "The Master" and "Amour".
Affleck did, in fact, achieve a perfect score...the top prediction in this category from the 8 experts that rank preferentially on their websites.
Others named by all 9 experts: Spielberg, Russell, Anderson, Haneke and Lee.
BEST ACTRESS
1) Jennifer Lawrence/Silver Linings Playbook (1) [1]
2) Quevenzhane Wallis/Beasts of the Southern Wild (2) [2] 3) Marion Cotillard/Rust and Bone (3) [4] 4) Emanuelle Riva/Amour (5) [6]
5) Naomi Watts/The Impossible (6) [N/L]
6) Helen Mirren/Hitchcock (7) [N/L]
7) Keira Knightley/Anna Karenina (4) [5] ###
8) Jessica Chastain/Zero Dark Thirty (NEW) [NEW] ***
9) Mary Elizabeth Winstead/Smashed (10) [N/L]
10) Meryl Streep/Hope Springs (8) [7] ###
Dropping Out: Judi Dench/Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
Comments: The top of the Best Actress chart has been pretty stable...the bottom, not so much. Additionally, two of the experts still are listing Jessica Chastain in "Supporting" but it was announced at the end of the week that she will be campaigned for "Lead" for her role in "Zero Dark Thirty". So one could reasonably expect that she'll gain a bit more traction before the next Best Actress update in two weeks.
All nine experts listed Wallis, Lawrence (who had a perfect score on our last post for this category but missed it today by 1 point...Scott Feinberg moved her to #2 behind Wallis last week), Cotillard, Watts, Riva and Knightley.
BEST ACTOR
1) Joaquin Phoenix/The Master (1) [1]
2) Daniel Day Lewis/Lincoln (3) [3]
3) Denzel Washington/Flight (4) [4]
4) John Hawkes/The Sessions (2) [2] ###
5) Anthony Hopkins/Hitchcock (New) [N/L] ***
6) Bradley Cooper/Silver Linings Playbook (5) [5]
7) Hugh Jackman/Les Miserables (8) [6] 8) Jean Louis Trintignant/Amour (7) [7]
9) Richard Gere/Arbitrage (New) [N/L] ***
10) Matt Damon/Promised Land (New) [N/L] ***
Dropping Out: Jamie Foxx/Django Unchained and Bill Murray/Hyde Park on Hudson
Comments: John Hawkes' campaign has cooled a bit and Bill Murray's has fallen off the planet (and that's reasonable..."Hyde Park" just doesn't have much spark. Hopkins, and Damon both have benefited from the decision to put their respective films into play this year and Richard Gere has gotten some notice now that "Arbitrage" is in theaters.
Meanwhile, the race at the top between Phoenix and Day Lewis is about as close as its possible to be. They're separated by one point in my system. DDL is the top choice of 5 of the experts while Phoenix is top for 3 of them. Phoenix catches DDL because he's #2 on every preferential list where he's not listed #1. Day Lewis is not.
It will be interesting to see if Phoenix's comments about the uselessness of acting awards budges the feelings of theses experts in any way...whether they feel it will harm his Oscar shot or have no effect at all.
All nine predictors included: Day Lewis, Phoenix, Washington, Hawkes, Cooper and Trintignant.
Dropping Out: Jessica Chastain/Zero Dark Thirty (see above note).
Comments: Anne Hathaway's fall from #1 to #3 is attributable to her absence altogether in the latest listing from Awards Daily. Jacki Weaver benefits from the continued positive buzz building around "Silver Linings Playbook" and Ann Dowd, who has been getting some mention on the lower end of some experts predictions has finally generated enough heat to make the chart.
Receiving mention from all 9 experts: Amy Adams, Helen Hunt and Sally Field.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
1) Philip Seymour Hoffman/The Master (1) [2]
2) Tommy Lee Jones/Lincoln (5) [N/L] *** 3) Alan Arkin/Argo (3) [3]
4) Leonardo DiCaprio/Django Unchained (2) [1] ###
5) Robert DeNiro/Silver Linings Playbook (4) [8]
6) Russell Crowe/Les Miserables (6) [N/L]
7) Dwight Henry/Beasts of the Southern Wild (7) [4]
8) Matthew McConnaughey/Magic Mike (8) [6]
9) Ewan MacGregor/The Impossible (New) [N/L] *** 10) Bryan Cranston/Argo (New) [N/L] ***
Dropping Out: William H. Macy/The Sessions and David Stratharin/Lincoln
Comments: Nobody is hotter than Tommy Lee Jones right now. DiCaprio suffers some positioning because of Jones rise. And Bryan Cranston makes the list, along with Ewan MacGregor, for the first time. Cranston is one of my "Oscar Underground" picks this year. So the question naturally becomes...if he's on the list, can he really be an Oscar underdog? Ummm...yes, he can and is...
The remaining 4 categories were updated last week and so I have reprinted those results here
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
1) Argo (1)
2) Silver Linings Playbook (2)
3) Lincoln (4)
4) Beasts of the Southern Wild (3)
5) The Sessions (8)+++
6) Life of Pi (5)
7) Les Miserables (6)
8) Anna Karenina (7)
9) On the Road (New)***
10) Hitchcock (New)***
Out: The Dark Knight Rises, Killing Them Softly
+++ The Sessions is still receiving some votes in the "Original" screenplay category. I believe it will be a player in the "Adapted" category. So, for the time being, those votes are counted in the "Adapted" category.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
1) The Master (2)
2) Moonrise Kingdom (1)
3) Amour (4)
4) Django Unchained (3)
5) Zero Dark Thirty (5)
6) Promised Land (6)
7) Looper (New)***
8) Flight (8)
9) Seven Psychopaths (9)
10) Arbitrage (New)***
Out: Frances Ha
Comment: A lot of love for "Looper" since its release. Personally, I'm not nearly as enamored of it as many are.
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
1) Life of Pi (2)
2) The Master (1)
3) Lincoln (3)
4) Anna Karenina (6)***
5) Les Miserables (8)***
6) Django Unchained (7)
7) Beasts of the Southern Wild (4)###
8) The Dark Knight Rises (5)###
9) Cloud Atlas (9)
10) Skyfall (New)
Out: The Hobbit
BEST FILM EDITING
1) Argo (1)
2) Lincoln (2)
3) Zero Dark Thirty (4)
4) Les Miserables (7)***
5) The Master (3)###
6) Life of Pi (6)
7) The Dark Knight Rises (5)###
8) Silver Linings Playbook (9)
9) Django Unchained (8)
10) Beasts of the Southern Wild (10)
No Drop Outs
And so the Telluride # 39 presence right now looks like this in the Big Ten categories:
Argo: 6 nominations and 1 more possible.
Amour: 2 nominations and 3 more possible (I am classifying its current #8 ranking for Best Picture as a "possible" rather than a nomination)
Rust and Bone: 1 nomination.
That's all folks... 9 nominations and another 4 possible. It's the least Telluride-ish impact since I started doing this blog 4 years ago. That being said, there will still be some tech noms here and there...maybe...and certainly we'll see some of the TFF #39 playlist emerge on the Foreign Language final five as well as long form documentary but the simple truth is that Telluride will not be as big an influence on Oscar this year as it has been in the recent past. All that being said, there's still a really good chance that Best Picture and Best Director will come from Telluride in the form of wins in those two categories for Ben Affleck's "Argo".
Other notes...if these predictions were true and nominations were announced today the following would be true:
"Lincoln" and "The Master" would each have 8 nominations among the Big Ten categories and others could be expected in the "below the line" categories. It seems, at least for the moment, that that's where the competition is going to be for the film the earns the most nominations. I give the edge to "Lincoln".
Next is "Silver Linings Playbook" with 5 nominations and another 3 possibles.
"Les Miserables" is looking at 4 nominations with 5 more possibles.
"Beasts of the Southern Wild" is set for 3 nominations and has 5 more possibles.
"Life of Pi" also is looking at 3 nominations with another 2 possible.
Also with 3 nominations would be "The Sessions" with another one possible.
"Django Unchained" is at 2 nominations with 4 more possible and "Zero Dark Thirty" is set for 2 nominations with another 3 possible.
One nomination films that have a significant presence in the number of possible nominations that they might add are :
"Hitchcock" with5 more possible, and "Anna Karenina" with 3 more possible.
"Promised Land" currently has no nominations projected but does have 3 possibilities.
THE JOGGER AT KICKSTARTER
Casey Twenter and Jeff Robison's "The Jogger" is winding down filming in OKC but its Kickstarter campaign for additional post-production funds continues until Nov. 4th. Take a look here:
You hardly ever see this happen but it did this weekend. "Argo" won the Box Office for the first time since its release...that's in its third weekend...which is unheard of. Strong word of mouth and less than stellar performances from the new films that opened (including "Cloud Atlas") combined to give "Argo" the weekend. Maybe I mentioned "word of mouth" as a factor when it opened in 2nd place two weeks ago...
George Clooney's next directing gig? Bill Murray in it? Maybe also "The Artist's" Jean Dujardin? Sounds like a lot of Telluride connectivity in all of that and it could all be true asClooney prepares "The Monuments Men" a drama centered on the attempt to save art from Hitler's wrath in WWII. Clooney is listed by IMDb as writer, producer and actor. No one is yet listed as director.
Here's some coverage of the early moves toward making this film:
Casey Twenter and Jeff Robison's "The Jogger" continues to lense in and around the Oklahoma City area. Here's what they posted on "The Jogger's" Facebook page on Tuesday:
"That's a day 3 wrap. The footage Michael Stine has shot looks fantastic. The work ethic and demeanor of the crew is inspiring. Acting is aces. Time for some sleep and then we're on at 6 again tonight!" Here's the link to that page: http://www.facebook.com/pages/The-Jogger/359188407489402?fref=ts
As I have been saying...support Oklahoma film a drop a dime (or two) into Casey and Jeff's project.
ARGO OPENS
TFF #39 sneak preview "Argo" has been tearing up the festival scene since its debut in Telluride 6 weeks ago. It opened nationwide last Friday and has benefited from terrific reviews. Dollar-wise, I gather that the WB folks would have liked it to have done a little better business last weekend (it opened as the #2 film of the weekend behind the second week of "Taken 2") but I think that word of mouth is going to keep it going for a while.
As you might expect there aren't quite as many posts/stories today as there were Monday in the glow of its opening weekend but there are still quite a few "Argo" tidbits to pass along to you.
First, Vulture.com explores the value/utility of all the character actors that make up the "Argo' ensemble and have many thinking that it's the favorite for the ensemble acting award that will be presented by the Screen Actors Guild. Here's that post:
Another common thread among "Argo" stories has been the commentary concerning the "comeback' of actor/writer/director Ben Affleck. The Herald Mail looks at that here:
Another common thread through any number of posts about the film has been comparing the fictionalized world of the film to the actual events it is based on. Screenrant is among the sites that have taken that on and here is their examination:
And interviews continue to be posted/published. Below you'll find The Hollywood Reporter's talk with "Argo' screen scribe Chris Terrio and Anne Thompson's talk with Affleck and film editor William Goldenberg:
Good Monday Everyone, if such a thing is even possible...
Here's this week's FAC on the Oscars for Best Picture as well as Best Actress and Best Actor
BEST PICTURE
1) Argo (1)
2) Silver Linings Playbook (2)
3) Les Miserables (3)
4) The Master (4)
5) Lincoln (5)
6) Life of Pi (7)
7) Beasts of the Southern Wild (6)
8) Amour (8)
9) Zero Dark Thirty (9)
10) Flight (13)***
11) Django Unchained (10)
12) Anna Karenina (12)
13) Promised Land (14)
14) Moonrise Kingdom (11)###
15) Hitchcock (New)***
Dropping Out: The Sessions
Comment: “Flight” takes flight in the last two weeks and the Fox Searchlight announcement that “Hitchcock” will play in awards season has been met with a lot of anticipation. “The Sessions” and “Moonrise Kingdom” suffer as a result.
BEST ACTRESS
1) Jennifer Lawrence/Silver Linings Playbook (1) (Perfect Score)
2) Quevenzhane Wallis/Beasts of the Southern Wild (2)
3) Marion Cotillard/Rust and Bone (4)
4) Keira Knightley/Anna Karenina (5)
5) Emanuelle Riva/Amour (6)
6) Naomi Watts (3)###
7) Helen Mirren/Hitchcock (New)***
8) Meryl Streep/Hope Springs (7)
9) Judi Dench/Best Exotic (New)***
10) Mary Elizabeth Winstead/Smashed (New)***
Dropping Out: Viola Davis, Laura Linney, Maggie Smith
Comment: Two weeks after the first Clearinghouse and no one doubts that Jennifer Lawrence is the odds on favorite to win the category. The “Hitchcock” announcement catapults Helen Mirren into serious consideration.
BEST ACTOR
1) Joaquin Phoenix/The Master (1)
2) John Hawkes/The Sessions (2)
3) Daniel Day Lewis/Lincoln (3)
4) Denzel Washington (4)
5) Bradley Cooper/Silver Linings Playbook (5)
6) Anthony Hopkins/Hitchcock (New)***
7) Jean Louis Trintignant/Amour (7)
8) Hugh Jackman (6)###
9) Jamie Foxx/Django Unchained (9)
10) Bill Murray/Hyde Park on Hudson (8)###
Dropping Out: Philip Seymour Hoffman
Comment: “Hitchcock” momentum in this category puts Sir Anthony Hopkins into play in a serious way. Jackman and Murray seem to be fading. My bet is that the Murray balloon will continue to deflate but that we haven’t seen the last of Mr. Jackman just yet.
ALL THINGS ARGO
With its release this week the "Argo" hype is building dramatically. I have included multiple links to interviews and other pieces about the film, Ben Affleck and its Oscar status...
A big splash of news out of New York this week that the city had subpoenaed unused film from the TFF #39/Ken Burns Documentary "The Central Park Five". Movieline included a couple of posts that explained:
This week's "Coming Attractions" focuses on recent announcements about the next (well, maybe after "Jane Got a Gun") Lynne Ramsay (We Need to Talk About Kevin). Because it's Ramsay and because she's been a Telluride player and because it just sounds...odd...here it is:
Ramsay is setting up to direct a "Moby Dick" adaptation set in space...I do not lie.
Today marks the 600th post of Michael's Telluride Film Blog/The Film Awards Clearinghouse. Thanks for playing! Hope that some of you have enjoyed it these last four years and found it informative and occasionally entertaining.
ARGO NEWS
Bryan Cranston's character poster for "Argo" (Supporting Actor nom please!)
Ben Affleck's "Argo" was the toast of Telluride this year and continues to ride a wave of buzz and popularity following the Toronto Festival. Its roll out is complete next week when it opens nationally on Oct. 12th. I'm looking forward to it as I will likely see it again.
WB has released 6 clips that together provide the set up for the Iranian hostage crisis set thriller that finds itself in the thick of the early awards conversation. You can access those clips below via either Cinema Blend or The Playlist:
Also available is this interview with Affleck from Hollywood News in the midst of the ongoing New York Film Festival (where Ang Lee's "Life of Pi" has been very well received):
And the conclusion you should draw is that Telluride, for better or worse, has the MOST TANGIBLE EFFECT ON THE OSCAR RACE! More than Venice, Cannes, Sundance and even Toronto. Just look at the front runners at this point in 2009, 2010 and 2011. Then there's the whole "Slumdog Millionaire" phenomena that happened in 2008. Some won, some ultimately did not. But if you're a producer/distributor/director and you want/think your film is Oscar worthy, Telluride is almost indispensable as THE PLACE you want your film to drop...
Now, you can argue with whether that's what Telluride should be, is intended to be...whatever...but the proof is in the pudding. And I know there is some resistance in some quarters about Telluride's place in the scheme of awards season. Further, I know that there are some film outlets/individuals that resist going to Telluride for whatever reasons (time, distance, etc.). Bu, seriously, how can you argue with the recent past?
2012 Gurus of Gold Best Picture chart leader the first week of October: "Argo"
In 2011: "The Descendants" (Eventual winner "The Artist" was at #3...still proving my point)
In 2010: "The King's Speech"
In 2009: "Up in the Air"
In part Two, the Gurus weigh in on Best Actress, Actor, Supporting Actress and Actor:
Jeff Wells has a version of Oscar Poker up this week without past partner Sahsa Stone. Scott Feinberg has stepped in for a one time/stand alone appearance. I don't have a clue what went down between Stone and Wells...but it appears that that relationship is very, very done. Stone has said she's moving onto another podcast and Wells is saying Oscar Poker will continue in some capacity...
Here's this week's link to the Wells/Feinberg edition:
Well, you have to hand it to the Academy. They clearly wanted to shake things up for this year's Oscars and almost certainly have done it by tapping comedian/actor/producer/writer/director...etc. Seth MacFarlane as this year's host.
I'm of a split mind here. I've never been a big fan of MacFarlane's "work'. I think the mix of topical satire and gross out humor doesn't play particularly well. Though I do have to say, I mostly enjoyed his hosting gig on Saturday Night Live a couple of weeks ago. Additionally, I understand that the Academy wants a draw for the telecast and is obviously wanting the demographics to go a bit younger...but still...I don't think that this is the way I would have gone.
Here are a couple of links concerning the MacFarlane choice from The Playlist and The Hollywood Reporter:
Scott Feinberg re-tweeted news yesterday that the producers of the Ken Burns led documentary "The Central Park Five" have had he film subpoenaed in the lawsuit that has been brought against New York as a consequence of that case. Here's the link to the New York Times from Scott's tweet with those details:
Earlier this week the Screen Actor's Guild ruled that "Beasts of the Southern Wild", which has been considered a strong contender for recognition this awards season, was ineligible for the SAG ensemble award. Will that affect its Oscar chances? Hard to tell, but Scott Feinberg at The Hollywood Reporter thinks it could. Two stories and links from The New York Times and from THR:
Good Wednesday to All...2 days...1 day...if you've been reading...you know.
WELCOME
And by that I mean that you are welcome to attend the Second Annual(?) Guide to the 'Ride; Flow of the SHOW" at 5:00pm Friday at The River Club, 550 Depot in Telluride for a conversation about this year's festival lineup, the blog...and whatever else might come up. Hosts Mitzi and Larry Mallard will open The River Club's doors and provide some drinks and snacks...come by...say hello!
LEANING TOWARDS...
Coming down the stretch this week and there seems fairly strong buzz/indications that we almost certainly can count on Ben Affleck's "Argo", Brian DePalma's "Passion" and Walter Salles "On the Road". All three have been on the MTFB radar and "Argo" was listed Monday on the "Additional Ten Bets" List at #11. These three join "Rust and Bone", "Hyde Park on Hudson", "The Central Park Five", "Frances Ha', "Ginger and Rosa" and "Midnight's Children" as virtual certainties for this weekend.
What this means is that I will, in fact, do a final "Ten Bets" tomorrow and post it before I get in the car and head to the mountains.
VENICE FILMS???
The Venice Film Festival opens today with Mira Nair's "The Reluctant Fundamentalist" and if the past is any guide , somewhere between 2-4 films will cross over from Venice to southwest Colorado. The most likely possibilities are:
Among competition films: "At Any Price", "Something in the Air", "Passion".
"To the Wonder" and "The Master" now are unlikely Telluride candidates.
Among the out of competition films: "Love is All You Need", "The Reluctant Fundamentalist", "The Company You Keep", "The Iceman".
And if I were forced to chose I'd rank the five most likely as: "Passion", "At Any Price", "The Iceman", "Something in the Air" and "The Company You Keep".
CENTRAL PARK FIVE
I don't think it's much of a secret that I've had this Ken Burns and Co. documentary on the "Ten Bets" list all summer. It's going to play, I say.
A new clip from Sundance hit and one of my personal hopes for this weekend "The Sessions" emerged yesterday. Here it is:
NATIVE SILENCE
And put this down in your notebook for Telluride #40...a restored silent film starring Native Americans discovered and restored here in my home state of Oklahoma. The article says that it's headed to Telluride which would have to mean 2013 and has the support of the above-mentioned Mr. Burns. It's sounds fascinating!
Here's the link to the article from IndianCountryTodaymedianetwork.com:
HitFix has a very nice pictorial up of 20 films it isolates as the films it most anticipates this fall. A number of probable/possible Telluride titles make their list including: "Passion", "Argo", "Frances Ha", "Something in the Air", "The Iceman" and "At Any Price". And some less likely T-ride possibilities such as: "Cloud Atlas", "Anna Karenina", "Great Expectations", "Much Ado About Nothing", "Quartet", "The Place Beyond the Pines", "Seven Psychopaths" and "The Impossible".
Here's a re-post of what I thought was the best material from the last week here on MTFB/FAC.
This week's Ten Bets for TFF #39
1) Amour
2) Rust and Bone
3) Beyond the Hills
4) Hyde Park on Hudson
5) Song for Marion
6) No
7) Something in the Air
8) The East
9) Midnight's Children
10) The Central Park Five (see below)
Floating just below: "Like Someone in Love", "Reality", "On the Road and "The Hunt".
I'm a little more bullish on Olivier Assasyas' "Something in the Air" this week and a little less on Walter Salles' "On the Road".
IFC
Continuing what I started last week with a view toward distribution/production companies that have some connection to Telluride in the past and what that could portend for 2012. Today it's IFC.
Past IFC films that have played TFF:
2011: Into the Abyss, Pina
2010: Carlos, The Princess of Montpensier
2009: Life During Wartime, Vincere, Fish Tank, Red Riding Trilogy
2008: The Good, The Bad and The Weird, Gomorrah, Hunger, Flame and Citron
2007: 4 Months, 3 Weeks, 2 Days
2006: Jar City
So IFC has evolved into a consistent presence with films at Telluride over the past 5 years. Based on the recent past, one might expect 2-3 IFC distributed films in the San Juans over Labor Day weekend. What's in their quiver that has some Telluride-y essence?
Olivier Assasyas' "Something in the Air". Assasyas has been repped at T-ride in the past with "Irma Vep" in 1996 and with "Carlos" in 2010. IMDb: http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1846472/
Walter Salles' "On the Road". Salles' T-ride resume: "Central Station" in 1998 and "The Motorcycle Diaries" in 2004. IMDb: http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0337692/
There are other films in the IFC stable but these appear to be the 3 with the best chance of being in Telluride.
CENTRAL PARK FIVE
Don't be surprised if Ken Burns' "The Central Park Five" Doc shows up at Telluride. His "Dust Bowl" was shown as a part of Mountainfilm so that takes it off the table in all likelihood. But CPF looks primed to be on the TFF slate. CPF was co-written, co-produced and co-directed by Burns, David McMahon (his son-in -law) and Sarah Burns (his daughter).
CPF looks at a case of criminal system malfeasance in NYC in 1989.
Today our focus on production companies turns overseas as I begin to look at European firms that have had films on the program at Telluride and what their past participation may mean for 2012.
Today we look at the French firm Canal+
Canal+'s recent Telluride presence includes:
CANAL+ (French production company)
2011: Crazy Horse, Goodbye First Love, Le Havre, The Kid with a Bike, The Artist
2010: Carlos, Of Gods and Men, The Princess of Montpensier, The Illusionist
2009: Farewell, The White Ribbon, Inferno, A Prophet, Coco Before Chanel
2008: Flame and Citron, I’ve Loved You So Long
2007: The Diving Bell and the Butterfly, Terror’s Advocate
2005: Cache
As you can see, Canal+ has increased its presence over the last 3 years with 4-5 films on the program. So what do they have their fingers in that could provide a signal as to what we'll see Labor Day weekend?
Here's the most likely Telluride-ish films on the Canal+ 2012 slate:
Leo Carax's "Holy Motors"
Walter Salles' "On the Road"
Alain Renais' "You Ain't Seen Nothing Yet"
Michael Haneke's "Amour"
Matteo Garrone's "Reality"
Jacques Audiard's "Rust and Bone"
As regular readers are aware, I think that the Haneke and the Audiard are locks for Telluride. Any of the other 4 (and perhaps all of them) could well be on the T-ride playlist as well.
FRANCE 2 CINEMA
I continue the procession through European film production companies that have had a presence at Telluride festivals lately as a means to assessing what films could play there this year and today's examination focuses on France 2 Cinema.
Here's their recent track record at TFF:
2011: The Kid with a Bike
2010: The Princess of Montpensier
2009: Farewell, Inferno, Coco Before Chanel, A Prophet
Prior to that I can't find any other films prior to 2004.
As you can see, a big year for France 2 Cinema in 2009 with 4 films then just one in 2010 and 2011. What's got Telluride potential on the F2C plate:
Olivier Assasyas' "Something in the Air", Walter Salles' "On the Road", Alain Renais' "You Ain't Seen Nothing Yet" and Jacques Audiard's "Rust and Bone".
All are real possibilities with "Rust" and "Something" the more likely (I think).
NEW VIEW OF DJANGO
Quentin Tarantino's "Django Unchained" continues its steady drip of publicity with the release of a new TV spot that grabbed a good deal of attention the last few days. Here it is:
FRANCE 3 CINEMA
Today's European film production house to focus on is France 3 Cinema. F3C's recent Telluride past looks like this:
2011: The Artist
2010: The Princess of Montpensier, Of Gods and Men, The Illusionist
2009: The White Ribbon
2008: I've Loved You So Long
2007: Persepolis, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
2006: The Page Turner
2005: Cache
F3C generally has one film in play at Telluride and rarely two. This year they are involved with Michael Haneke's "Amour" so my bet is that will be the one (and only) F3C film in Telluride...but it's a good bet. Haneke's previous two films ( The White Ribbon, Cache) played T-ride and F3C had a hand in both.
Tomorrow a look at British firm Film4.
THE MASTER AS PRISM
"The Master" is Paul Thomas Anderson's take on, among other things, a "belief system" that may or may not (but probably does) seem something like Scientology and with the recent implosion of the Tom Cruise/Katie Holmes marriage and Cruise's high profile position within Scientology, Kris Tapley naturally wonders if "the Master" will be the "zeitgeist" movie of the year.
Come on PTA/TWC and TFF...let's get "the Master" locked down for this year's festival!
FILM4
We start today with British film producing companies and specifically with Film4. Film4's track record at Telluride recently looks like this:
2011: Shame
2010: Never Let Me Go, Another Year, 127 Hours
2008: Slumdog Millionaire, Happy Go Lucky
2007: Brick Lane, When Did You Last See Your Father
Film4 had no presence in 2008 and only began producing in 2004.
For 2012 the only film that seems like a Telluride fit is Walter Salles "On the Road" which actually might boost its profile enough to be back on my "Ten Bets" list for next week. We'll see on Monday.
CANNES LURKERS
The Playlist highlighted two Cannes competition films yesterday. Both of them have some potential to be on Telluride's program this year.
Thomas Vintenberg's "The Hunt" features Cannes Best Actor winner Mads Mikkelsen as a teacher accused of abuse. It is probably the more likely of the two. As a matter of fact I have it floating just below the "Ten Bets" list.
The other film that The Playlist featured is Xavier Dolan's "Laurence Anyways" which is looking for distribution (which could be a key as to whether we see it in the San Juans. "Laurence" deals with roles and identity following a sex change operation.
