Obsessing about the Telluride Film Festival and the film awards season since 2008!
"The best blog out there for predicting what will be going to Telluride."-Matt Neglia, Next Best Picture
"The Nostradamus of Telluride"
-Tim Appelo, Movies for Grownups
"But it's our job." - Anne Thompson, Indiewire
A quick reminder: Toronto announces their first wave of films one week from today and Venice will be right behind them two days later. We'll get our first real hard data about what could be playing over Labor Day weekend...
THE EURO PRODUCERS: THE FRENCH-FRANCE 2 CINEMA
Here are the films from France 2 Cinema that have played Telluride in recent years:
2006: Indigenes
2009: A Prophet, Coco Before Chanel
2010: The Princess of Montpensier
2011: The Kid with a Bike
2012: Rust and Bone
2013: Blue is the Warmest Color
2014: Two Days One Night,
2015: No film
After no TFF #42 appearance, France 2's only real shot at a Telluride play in 2016 seems to be Paul Verhoeven's Elle which I have slowly warmed to as a real Telluride possibility.
THE UNKNOWN GIRL GETS A NEW TRAILER
Many sources reported the appearance of a new trailer yesterday for Telluride stalwarts The Dardenne Brothers' latest film The Unknown Girl. Here it is from YouTube:
I have been including this film in my TFF #43 thinking for a long time simply because The Dardennes are such regulars of the Cannes to Telluride connection. But...the critical response at Cannes made me step back a bit. Ad today, the new trailer's drop was also tweeted out by the Toronto Fest. I have to wonder if that is significant.
Odds are still in the favor of The Unknown Girl playing Telluride but it is not the slam dunk easy prediction that Two Days One Night was.
And finally, after being teased by Variety/InContention's Kristopher Tapley early last week, we found out that Fox 2000 has dated the release of their new film, Hidden Figures, for late December. Does that mean it's an awards player? Does it's move into pre-2017 mean we should consider it for Telluride? Probably not...but you never know. Here's the news about Hidden Figures, a true story of African American women who made a huge contribution to the early U.S. space program.
Octavia Spencer, Taraji P. Henson and Kevin Costner star. Here's the IMDb entry for the film:
I had been thinking the last week or so that Open Road might be planning to drop Oliver Stone's Snowden at TFF #43 especially after the announcement of its European Premiere at the San Sebastien Film Fest opening Sept.16. The film also opens in the U.S. on that date. BUT...we found out yesterday from The Hollywood Reporter that the film will be "secretly" screened at Comic Con which would seem to move it out of T-ride consideration due to Telluride's North American premiere policy.
Here's this week's installment of my weekly guess as to what are the ten most likely films to play as a part of this year's Telluride Film Festival.
First, a look at last week's "Ten Bets":
10) "The Club"
9) "Suffragette"
8) "13 Minutes"
7) "Queen of the Desert"
6) "45 Years"
5) "I Saw the Light"
4) "Carol"
3) "Youth"
2) "Son of Saul"
1) "Dheepan"
And now, "Ten Bets" #4
10) "The Club"
9) "Truth"
8) "Queen of the Desert"
7) "Suffragette"
6) "Youth"
5) "45 Years"
4) "I Saw the Light"
3) "Carol"
2) "Dheepan"
1) "Son of Saul"
SPC's "Truth" rejoins the "Ten Bets" replacing their "13 Minutes". Also, "Mountains Amy Depart" drops a bit farther as its director is on the new "Program" jury for Toronto. "The Measure of a Man" moves to "near Ten Bets" status.
EUROPEAN PRODUCERS: LE FRENCH PART DEUX
I'm continuing my look at European/French film production firms today with looks at Telluride legacies for France2 Cinema and France 3 as a way of looking for possible shows for The SHOW.
FRANCE2 CINEMA
Here are the films from France2 Cinema that have played Telluride in recent years:
2006: Indigenes
2009: A Prophet, Coco Before Chanel
2010: The Princess of Montpensier
2011: The Kid with a Bike
2012: Rust and Bone
2013: Blue is the Warmest Color
2014: Two Days One Night
TFF #42 possibilities:
"Youth"
"Mon Roi"
"Lolo"
are the best bets from France2.
FRANCE 3
Here's the track record from France 3 at Telluride for the past several years:
2003: Dogville, The Tripletts of Belleville
2004:
2005: Lemming, Live and Become, Cache
2006: The Page Turner, Indigenes
2007: The Diving Bell and The Butterfly, Persepolis
2008: I've Loved You So Long
2009: The White Ribbon
2010: The Illusionist, The Princess of Montpensier, Of Gods and Men
2011: The Artist
2012: Superstar, Amour
2013: The Past
2014: Mr. Turner, The Price of Fame, The Gate
Their 2015 slate that might be Telluride possible includes:
"Diary of a Chambermaid"
"Disorder"
"Valley of Love"
These films seem like the best bets from France 3.
FIRST TRAILER FOR "THE REVENANT"
"The Revenant" trailer via YouTube
Let me be clear, Alejandro Inarritu's "The Revenant" starring Leonardo DiCaprio is almost certainly NOT going to make it to Telluride. The film is, the buzz says, NOT ready and WILL NOT be ready in time.
With a Dec. 25th release date, Inarritu has plenty of time before its theatrical release to get finished up...maybe. Honestly, I wouldn't be all that surprised if this didn't get held until 2016 with a play at Cannes and then a 2016 Telluride play.
Nevertheless, we have a trailer that dropped this morning as you can see above and here are some of the related stories from other outlets that accompanied the trailer this morning:
Hou Hsiao-Hsien's "The Assassin" won the Best Directing prize at Cannes last May and that might be enough to see it make the Telluride 2015 program. Last year's Cannes Best Director made the trip to T-ride-Bennett Miller and "Foxcatcher'. Other Cannes Best Direction winners of recent years that have then played Telluride include: Gus Van Sant ("Elephant" '03), Michael Haneke ("Cache" '05) Alejandro Inarritu ("Babel '06) and Julian Schnabel ("The Diving Bell and the Butterfly" '07). Additionally, the critical response was very, very good.
The film is being distributed by Well Go Entertainment which has no real Telluride history but that might not matter. The film also still has no U.S. release date but will have played half a dozen international festivals by the end of August.
I have linked an interview with Hsiao-Hsien from Mubi and the story from The Playlist that includes the trailer for the film:
Today I continue looking at French production houses that have been Telluride players in the recent past and also look at those films that they have been a part of that could make the upcoming list of TFF #40 films.
FRANCE2 CINEMA
Here are the films from France2 Cinema that have played Telluride in recent years:
2006: Indigenes
2009: A Prophet, Coco Before Chanel
2010: The Princess of Montpensier
2011: The Kid with a Bike
2012: Rust and Bone
As you can see, France2 has been a modest player and really only in the last four years. Still, France2 has three films with some Telluride potential: "Blue is the Warmest Color", "Mood Indigo" and "The Great Beauty".
"Blue" has the best chance of playing T-ride.
FRANCE3 CINEMA
France3 has had a larger profile than France2 at Telluride over the past few years:
2003: Dogville, The Tripletts of Belleville
2004:
2005: Lemming, Live and Become, Cache
2006: The Page Turner, Indigenes
2007: The Diving Bell and The Butterfly, Persepolis
2008: I've Loved You So Long
2009: The White Ribbon
2010: The Illusionist, The Princess of Montpensier, Of Gods and Men
2011: The Artist
2012: Superstar, Amour
So France3 is very consistently at Telluride with one or two films a year. Their current crop has two suspects: "The Past" and "Grigris". I think "The Past" is very likely and "Grigris" is a 50/50 shot to make the program.
CONSIDERING HELI
Variety reported this past weekend that Amat Escalante's film "Heli" had won the top prize at the Munich Film Festival. Up to that point I hadn't considered the film a likely Telluride prospect despite the face that it had played well in Cannes and Escalante had won Cannes' Best Director prize. Further, the lineup of the films it outpaced to win in Munich include a number of high profile projects (some of which are sure to play in the San Juans come Labor Day): "The Past", "Blue is the Warmest Color" and "The Great Beauty" among them.
That isn't to say that it's a cinch to make the lineup. The last Cannes Best Director prize winner to come to Telluride was in 2007 with Julian Schnabel's "The Diving Bell and The Butterfly". Prior to that, however, past Cannes Best Director winners includes a bevy of individuals who have been a part of Telluride:
Werner Herzog, Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, Gus Van Sant, Michael Haneke, David Lynch, Pedro Almodovar, John Boorman, Mike Leigh, Wim Wenders, Martin Scorsese, Andrei Tarkovsky and Bertrand Tavernier.
With the Munich win, I think I've got to take Heli's chances of playing Telluride a lot more seriously. Is it a "Ten Bets" film this week? No, but it's a lot closer today than it was last Friday.
Here's a re-post of what I thought was the best material from the last week here on MTFB/FAC.
This week's Ten Bets for TFF #39
1) Amour
2) Rust and Bone
3) Beyond the Hills
4) Hyde Park on Hudson
5) Song for Marion
6) No
7) Something in the Air
8) The East
9) Midnight's Children
10) The Central Park Five (see below)
Floating just below: "Like Someone in Love", "Reality", "On the Road and "The Hunt".
I'm a little more bullish on Olivier Assasyas' "Something in the Air" this week and a little less on Walter Salles' "On the Road".
IFC
Continuing what I started last week with a view toward distribution/production companies that have some connection to Telluride in the past and what that could portend for 2012. Today it's IFC.
Past IFC films that have played TFF:
2011: Into the Abyss, Pina
2010: Carlos, The Princess of Montpensier
2009: Life During Wartime, Vincere, Fish Tank, Red Riding Trilogy
2008: The Good, The Bad and The Weird, Gomorrah, Hunger, Flame and Citron
2007: 4 Months, 3 Weeks, 2 Days
2006: Jar City
So IFC has evolved into a consistent presence with films at Telluride over the past 5 years. Based on the recent past, one might expect 2-3 IFC distributed films in the San Juans over Labor Day weekend. What's in their quiver that has some Telluride-y essence?
Olivier Assasyas' "Something in the Air". Assasyas has been repped at T-ride in the past with "Irma Vep" in 1996 and with "Carlos" in 2010. IMDb: http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1846472/
Walter Salles' "On the Road". Salles' T-ride resume: "Central Station" in 1998 and "The Motorcycle Diaries" in 2004. IMDb: http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0337692/
There are other films in the IFC stable but these appear to be the 3 with the best chance of being in Telluride.
CENTRAL PARK FIVE
Don't be surprised if Ken Burns' "The Central Park Five" Doc shows up at Telluride. His "Dust Bowl" was shown as a part of Mountainfilm so that takes it off the table in all likelihood. But CPF looks primed to be on the TFF slate. CPF was co-written, co-produced and co-directed by Burns, David McMahon (his son-in -law) and Sarah Burns (his daughter).
CPF looks at a case of criminal system malfeasance in NYC in 1989.
Today our focus on production companies turns overseas as I begin to look at European firms that have had films on the program at Telluride and what their past participation may mean for 2012.
Today we look at the French firm Canal+
Canal+'s recent Telluride presence includes:
CANAL+ (French production company)
2011: Crazy Horse, Goodbye First Love, Le Havre, The Kid with a Bike, The Artist
2010: Carlos, Of Gods and Men, The Princess of Montpensier, The Illusionist
2009: Farewell, The White Ribbon, Inferno, A Prophet, Coco Before Chanel
2008: Flame and Citron, I’ve Loved You So Long
2007: The Diving Bell and the Butterfly, Terror’s Advocate
2005: Cache
As you can see, Canal+ has increased its presence over the last 3 years with 4-5 films on the program. So what do they have their fingers in that could provide a signal as to what we'll see Labor Day weekend?
Here's the most likely Telluride-ish films on the Canal+ 2012 slate:
Leo Carax's "Holy Motors"
Walter Salles' "On the Road"
Alain Renais' "You Ain't Seen Nothing Yet"
Michael Haneke's "Amour"
Matteo Garrone's "Reality"
Jacques Audiard's "Rust and Bone"
As regular readers are aware, I think that the Haneke and the Audiard are locks for Telluride. Any of the other 4 (and perhaps all of them) could well be on the T-ride playlist as well.
FRANCE 2 CINEMA
I continue the procession through European film production companies that have had a presence at Telluride festivals lately as a means to assessing what films could play there this year and today's examination focuses on France 2 Cinema.
Here's their recent track record at TFF:
2011: The Kid with a Bike
2010: The Princess of Montpensier
2009: Farewell, Inferno, Coco Before Chanel, A Prophet
Prior to that I can't find any other films prior to 2004.
As you can see, a big year for France 2 Cinema in 2009 with 4 films then just one in 2010 and 2011. What's got Telluride potential on the F2C plate:
Olivier Assasyas' "Something in the Air", Walter Salles' "On the Road", Alain Renais' "You Ain't Seen Nothing Yet" and Jacques Audiard's "Rust and Bone".
All are real possibilities with "Rust" and "Something" the more likely (I think).
NEW VIEW OF DJANGO
Quentin Tarantino's "Django Unchained" continues its steady drip of publicity with the release of a new TV spot that grabbed a good deal of attention the last few days. Here it is:
FRANCE 3 CINEMA
Today's European film production house to focus on is France 3 Cinema. F3C's recent Telluride past looks like this:
2011: The Artist
2010: The Princess of Montpensier, Of Gods and Men, The Illusionist
2009: The White Ribbon
2008: I've Loved You So Long
2007: Persepolis, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
2006: The Page Turner
2005: Cache
F3C generally has one film in play at Telluride and rarely two. This year they are involved with Michael Haneke's "Amour" so my bet is that will be the one (and only) F3C film in Telluride...but it's a good bet. Haneke's previous two films ( The White Ribbon, Cache) played T-ride and F3C had a hand in both.
Tomorrow a look at British firm Film4.
THE MASTER AS PRISM
"The Master" is Paul Thomas Anderson's take on, among other things, a "belief system" that may or may not (but probably does) seem something like Scientology and with the recent implosion of the Tom Cruise/Katie Holmes marriage and Cruise's high profile position within Scientology, Kris Tapley naturally wonders if "the Master" will be the "zeitgeist" movie of the year.
Come on PTA/TWC and TFF...let's get "the Master" locked down for this year's festival!
FILM4
We start today with British film producing companies and specifically with Film4. Film4's track record at Telluride recently looks like this:
2011: Shame
2010: Never Let Me Go, Another Year, 127 Hours
2008: Slumdog Millionaire, Happy Go Lucky
2007: Brick Lane, When Did You Last See Your Father
Film4 had no presence in 2008 and only began producing in 2004.
For 2012 the only film that seems like a Telluride fit is Walter Salles "On the Road" which actually might boost its profile enough to be back on my "Ten Bets" list for next week. We'll see on Monday.
CANNES LURKERS
The Playlist highlighted two Cannes competition films yesterday. Both of them have some potential to be on Telluride's program this year.
Thomas Vintenberg's "The Hunt" features Cannes Best Actor winner Mads Mikkelsen as a teacher accused of abuse. It is probably the more likely of the two. As a matter of fact I have it floating just below the "Ten Bets" list.
The other film that The Playlist featured is Xavier Dolan's "Laurence Anyways" which is looking for distribution (which could be a key as to whether we see it in the San Juans. "Laurence" deals with roles and identity following a sex change operation.
I continue the procession through European film production companies that have had a filic presence at Telluride festivals lately as a means to assessing what films could play there this year and today's examination focuses on France 2 Cinema.
Here's their recent track record at TFF:
2011: The Kid with a Bike
2010: The Princess of Montpensier
2009: Farewell, Inferno, Coco Before Chanel, A Prophet
Prior to that I can't find any other films prior to 2004.
As you can see, a big year for France 2 Cinema in 2009 with 4 films then just one in 2010 and 2011. What's got Telluride potential on the F2C plate:
Olivier Assasyas' "Something in the Air", Walter Salles' "On the Road", Alain Renais' "You Ain't Seen Nothing Yet" and Jacques Audiard's "Rust and Bone".
All are real possibilities with "Rust" and "Something" the more likely (I think).
Tomorrow: France 3 Cinema.
NEW VIEW OF DJANGO
Quentin Tarantino's "Django Unchained" continues its steady drip of publicity with the release of a new TV spot that grabbed a good deal of attention the last few days. Here it is:
There has been a little thought that Brian DePalma's new film "Passion" might be available for fall festivals including Telluride (though I'm dubious that it will be either ready or Telluride bound). The Playlist posted a new image from the film with comment here:
Serge Bromberg is a frequent guest at Telluride with various and sundry restoration projects. Last year he presented the restored "A Trip to the Moon" and 2009 saw "Inferno".
Now, a little twitterverse trivia seems to indicate that he'll be back in Telluride this year and likely with Cahrlie Chaplin material in tow. Sounds intriguing...
