Indiewire's Anne Thompson posted on Thursday a story called "Film Festivals 2020: Here's What We Do Know". Within the article she counts down a list of films that she attributes to "sources" that will be on the list of 20 or so films that Telluride has said they will announce as those that would have been selected for TFF #47.
Here's the Thompson rundown:
The Telluride 2020 program, sources say, includes such titles as Francis Lee’s lesbian romance “Ammonite” (also a TIFF selection, as well as Cannes), Gianfranco Rosi’s Middle East documentary “Notturno,” Chloe Zhao’s road movie “Nomadland” (Searchlight) starring Oscar-winner Frances McDormand, Wes Anderson’s “The French Dispatch” (October 16, Searchlight), Steve McQueen’s anthology films “Mangrove” and “Lovers Rock” (BBC, Amazon Prime), and Pixar’s animated “Soul” (November 20, Disney).
The list here looks reasonable and comports pretty well with what I had on last week's Ten Bets. Reviewing Anne's list and the last Ten Bets finds that both lists include:
Ammonite
Notturno
Nomadland
Mangrove
Lover's Rock
I'd also point out that I've been sniffing around about The French Dispatch being in the possibility column for TFF #47 since the film's premiere date was pushed to October.
The real surprise to me is the inclusion of Pete Docter's Pixar release Soul. That's a film that I would have never tripped to on my own. If it shows up on the list of TFF #47 films that Telluride organizers say will be revealed in the next few days, then that is quite the plum for the Telluride that might have been.
The complete article is linked here.
TEN BETS #3
Updating the Ten Bets this Monday with the new information from the Indiewire story referenced above. But before I do that, here's a look at last week's Ten Bets:
10) Undine
9) Forgotten We'll Be
8) The Secrets We Keep
7) Notturno
6) Small Axe (Mangrove and/or Lover's Rock)
5) John Prine: Hello In There
4) Fireball
3) Nomadland
2) There Is No Evil
1) Ammonite
Before this week's Ten Bets, a quick note: this could be the last Ten Bets for 2020. That will be true should TFF announce their list of selected films this week. I think it's very possible for that announcement to come as early as today. So, that said, here's the latest Ten Best for MTFB:
10) Fireball
9) John Prine: Hello In There
8) There Is No Evil
7) Soul
6) The French Dispatch
5) Lover's Rock (Small Axe)
4) Mangrove (Small Axe)
3) Notturno
2) Nomadland
1) Ammonite
Other possibilities: Undine, Forgotten We'll Be, Untitled Garbus/Cortes Voting Rights Documentary, The Secrets We Keep, American Utopia and French Exit.
Look for a MTFB SPECIAL POST should the TFF announcement happen this week.
OSCAR RAMBLINGS
I'm kind of wondering if "Oscar Season" is really already locked for this year despite The Academy bumping the eligibility window of the end of February 2021 and the actual Oscar date to the end of April. Here me out...
What if Tenet gets delayed all the way to Summer 2021? I think that's a real possibility especially in light of rumors swirling that the last Daniel Craig Bond film-No Time to Die- will be headed to a Summer 2021 date. I also think that's a real possibility for Spielberg's West Side Story, Villenueve's Dune, Greengrass' News of the World, Caro's Mulan, Jenkins' Wonder Woman 1984 and Scott's The Last Duel. I can't see any of these films being debuted in anything but a theatrical release of some kind and increasingly I think that's unlikely to happen in any meaningful sense by Feb. 28, 2021.
So posit that the above scenario is true... what films become Oscar players with the films that are already known?
Start with the idea that I'm right about them and eliminating the films listed above: Clayton Davis at Awards Circuit currently has Tenet at #7, West Side Story at #10, Dune at #4, News of the World at #18, Mulan at #17, Wonder Woman 1984 #26, No Time to Die at #44 and The Last Duel as an "Unranked Contender".
What films then do become players? Again, I'm including Awards Circuit rankings for each film.
Films that we believe will be on the TFF #47 list when it's announced: Nomadland #1, Ammonite #3, Soul #6, The French Dispatch #8.
Films that I thought could be TFF players but haven't shown up on the Cannes list: Annette #11 (already off to 2021 and a rumored bow at Cannes next May). Stillwater #13 (moved off its Nov. 6th date and not yet re-dated. Waiting to see if a pre-Feb. 28th drop is useful?), C'mon C'mon #14, On the Rocks #16 (I'll bet it holds off until Cannes).
Films that played TFF #46: The Assistant #36, First Cow (UR).
Sundance 2020 films: The Father #15, Minari #20, Never Rarely Sometimes Always #37.
And then there's the load of Netflix titles: Mank #2, The Trial of the Chicago 7 #5, Hillbilly Elegy #9, The White Tiger #12, Da 5 Bloods #19 (already out, of course), Ma Rainey's Black Bottom (UR), Rebecca (UR).
I'm thinking that Netflix may not roll all of these films before Feb. 2021. Perhaps they also will hold some of these titles back for the possibility of Cannes or the Oscars for 2021.
So, an adjustment of Clayton's predictions that skip the BIG films I've listed above as well as films that appear to be off to post Feb. 2021 but includes the Netflix titles leaves us with the following top 20 (with TFF #47 possibles in Bold.
1) Nomadland
2) Mank
3) Ammonite
4) The Trial of the Chicago 7
5) Soul
6) The French Dispatch
7) Hillbilly Elegy
8) The White Tiger
9) Stillwater (???)
10) The Father
11) Da 5 Bloods
12) Minari
13) Greyhound
14) Palm Springs
15) Untitled Fred Hampton Project
16) The Glorias
17) I'm Thinking of Ending Things
18) Those Who Wish Me Dead
19) Respect
20) Onward
And, of course, if Clayton is close to right... TFF #47 films, such as they are, could still be serious players in this weird Oscar season.
The complete and unaltered list of Clayton's predictions at Awards Circuit predictions are linked here.
THE LAST DISTRIBS: COHEN MEDIA, SUNDANCE SELECTS AND IFC FILMS AND KINO LORBER
I'm closing out the summer's look at distributors that have some Telluride history and films that could be named on TFF"s forthcoming list of films that would have programmed at The 2021 version of The SHOW.
COHEN MEDIA GROUP
Cohen's TFF History:
2019: No Titles
2018: The Great Buster
2017: The Insult, Face Places
2016: Journey Through French Cinema
2015: Hitchcock/Truffaut, Marguerite, Rams
2014: Magician
2013: No Show
2012: The Attack
Possible TFF #47 titles and their chance to play:
Forgotten We'll Be 50%
Operation Mincemeat 20%
KINO LORBER
KL's TFF History:
2019: Beanpole
2018: No Titles
2017: Film Worker
2016: Fire at Sea
2015: Ixcanul, Sembene!, Taxi
2014: The Decent One
2013: Burning Bush, La Maison de la Radio, Manuscripts Don't Burn
2010: La Quattro Volte, Poetry
2007: Blind Mountain
Possible TFF #47 title and its chance to play:
There Is No Evil 50%
SUNDANCE SELECTS AND IFC FILMS
The Sundance/IFC TFF History:
2019: No titles
2018: Non-fiction
2017: Eating Animals
2016: Things to Come, Graduation, Wakefield
2015: 45 Years
2014: Two Days One Night, Seymour: An Introduction
2013: Blue Is the Warmest Color
2012: Frances Ha, The Central Park Five, Everyday
2011: Into the Abyss, Pina, The Forgiveness of Blood, The Kid with a Bike, Goodbye First Love
2010: The Princess of Montpensier, Carlos, Tabloid
2009: Fish Tank, Red Riding, Life During Wartime, Vincere
2008: Hunger, Gomorrah, Flame and Citron, Everlasting Moments, The Good the Bad and The Weird
2007: Secret Sunshine, 4 Months 3 Weeks 2 Days, Jar City
2006: Deep Water, Indigenes, Day Night Day Night
2005: Three Times
Possible TFF #47 selection and its chances:
Undine 45%
EMAIL: mpgort@gmail.com
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