OSCAR UPDATE: CINEMATOGRAPHY, EDITING AND THE MUSIC
Here are my updates predictions for these four categories. As always, TFF films are in Bold.
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY (last predicted on Feb. 8th. Previous predictions for a film are in parentheses.)
1) Nomadland (1)
2) Mank (2)
3) News of the World (3)
4) Tenet (4)
5) The Trial of the Chicago 7 (7)
6) Judas and the Black Messiah (5)
7) Minari (7)
8) One Night in Miami (8)
9) First Cow (6)
10) Da 5 Bloods (10)
Other Possibles: Ma Rainey's Black Bottom, I'm Thinking of Ending Things, Midnight Sky
Hot: The Trial of the Chicago 7
Not: Da 5 Bloods
BEST FILM EDITING (last predicted on Feb. 8th. Previous predictions for a film are in parentheses.)
1) The Trial of the Chicago 7 (1)
2) News of the World (4)
3) Nomadland (2)
4) Mank (3)
5) Tenet (3)
6) Sound of Metal (-)
7) The Father (6)
8) One Night in Miami (8)
9) Da 5 Bloods (7)
10) Ma Rainey's Black Bottom (10)
Other Possibles: Judas and the Black Messiah, Minari
Hot: Sound of Metal, News of the World
Not: Judas and the Black Messiah, Tenet, Da 5 Bloods
ORIGINAL SCORE (last predicted on Feb. 8th. Previous predictions for a film are in parentheses.)
1) Soul (1)
2) News of the World (2)
3) Mank (4)
4) The Midnight Sky (3)
5) Tenet (5)
6) Minari (6)
7) The Trial of the Chicago 7 (7)
8) Da 5 Bloods (8)
9) The Little Things (10)
10) Blizzard of Souls (-)
Other Possibles: Ammonite, The Invisible Man, The Life Ahead, Mulan, Jingle Jangle-A Christmas Journey
Hot: Blizzard of Souls
Not: Jingle Jangle
BEST ORIGINAL SONG (last predicted on Feb. 8th. Previous predictions for a film are in parentheses.)
1) Speak Now/One Night in Miami (1)
2) Io Si (Seen)/The Life Ahead (2)
3) Fight for You/Judas and the Black Messiah (8)
4) Hear My Voice/The Trial of the Chicago 7 (5)
5) Husavik/Eurovision (6)
6) Turntables/All In: The Fight for Democracy (-)
7) Never Break/Giving Voice (-)
8) Wuhan Flu/Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (7)
9) See What You've Done/Belly of the Beast (-)
10) Rain Song/Minari (-)
Other Possibles: Green/Sound of Metal, Loyal Brave True/Mulan, Free/The One and Only Ivan, Show Me Your Soul/Mr. Soul, Make It Work/Jingle Jangle: A Christmas Journey
Hot: Fight for You/Judas and the Black Messiah, Turntables/All In:The Fight for Democracy
THE OSCAR INVENTORY
This is a look at the total predicted nominations that I have currently for the ten films MTFB has listed as Best Picture nominees as the announcement is just three weeks away (Mar. 15th).
Mank will lead all Best Picture nominees with a total of 13 predicted: Picture, Director, Actor, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay, Cinematography, Editing, Production Design, Costumes, Makeup/Hair, Sound, Score, Song.
Three films will have seven nominations:
The Trial of the Chicago 7: Picture, Director, Supporting Actor, Original Screenplay, Cinematography, Editing, Song.
Ma Rainey's Black Bottom: Picture, Actor, Actress, Adapted Screenplay, Production Design, Costumes, Makeup/Hair.
News of the World: Picture, Cinematography, Editing, Production Design, Sound, Costumes, Score.
Nomadland will land six nominations: Picture, Director, Actress, Adapted Screenplay, Cinelatography, Editing.
Sound of Metal will have five nominations: Picture, Actor, Supporting Actor, Original Screenplay, Sound.
The four nomination club will include:
Minari: Picture, Director, Supporting Actress and Original Screenplay.
One Night in Miami: Picture, Supporting Actor, Adapted Screenplay, Song
Promising Young Woman: Picture, Director, Actress, Original Screenplay,
Judas and the Black Messiah will land three nominations, the least of the films I have predicted for Best Picture: Picture, Supporting Actor, Song.
Other films with notable numbers of nominations per my predictions:
Tenet with 5: Cinematography, Editing, Visual Effects, Sound, Score.
The Father with 3: Actor, Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay.
The Midnight Sky with 3: Sound, Visual Effects, Score.
Best bets among the above films to add a nomination not currently predicted:
The Father: Picture, Editing
Minari: Steven Yeun/Best Actor, Score
Tenet: Production Design
News of the World: Adapted Screenplay
One Night in Miami: Regina King/Best Director
Judas and the Black Messiah: Cinematography
Sound of Metal: Editing
ANOTHER NOMAD
Bob Wells (via Vulture)
We've seen and heard a lot from Nomadland star (and producer) Frances McDormand and director/writer Chloe Zhao but Vulture this week posted an interview with Nomad lifestyle guru Bob Wells. Wells is featured prominently in the film and stars as himself.
Wells hosts the annual Rubber Tramp Rendezvous and is well known for producing videos on YouTube extolling the R.V. lifestyle.
LATEST GURUS: THE GOLDEN GLOBES
The latest Gurus of Gold post is up this afternoon and focuses on a number of categories from the Golden Globes. The Globes are set to be handed out on Sunday evening amidst a controversy over its membership and pay to said to members.
I'll be the first to admit that I am no expert when it comes to the capriciousness of the Globes and who is going to win on Sunday night. Heck, I barely think I can talk semi-intellgently about the Oscar race that I spend a lot of time and attention on.
Nevertheless, Ray Pride from Movie City News asked us to opine on the Globes and I and most of the other Gurus obliged. Check out our predictions by using this link.
My big picks: Nomadland, Borat, Zhao, Mulligan, Boseman, Bakalova, Cohen.
EMAIL: mpgort@gmail.com
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