FINAL OSCAR NOMINATION PREDICTIONS-SUNDAY, MAR. 14TH
A couple of quick notes here...
Over the years of predicting Oscar nominations, I've worked out that my average rate of success over the last five years has been 79.4 % which in most categories translates roughly to getting four out of the five nominees correctly. I've also found that in the 20-25% of cases where I miss, the fifth nominee is the film/performer that I have picked in the sixth spot about 37.5% of the time.
Of course, with the weirdness that is this year's Oscar season, anything is possible.
So...here they be. As always, TFF films are in Bold.
BEST PICTURE
1) Nomadland
2) The Trial of the Chicago 7
3) Minari
4) Promising Young Woman
5) Mank
6) One Night in Miami
7) Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
8) Judas and the Black Messiah
9) Sound of Metal
10) The Father
Other Possibles: Da 5 Bloods, News of the World
BEST DIRECTOR (Last predicted Feb. 22)
1) Chloe Zhao/Nomadland
2) David Fincher/Mank
3) Emerald Fennell/Promising Young Woman
4) Aaron Sorkin/The Trial of the Chicago 7
5) Lee Isaac Chung/Minari
6) Regina King/One Night in Miami
7) Spike Lee/Da 5 Bloods
8) Paul Greengrass/News of the World
9) Florian Zeller/The Father (8)
10) Shaka King/Judas and the Black Messiah
Other Possibles: Darius Marder/Sound of Metal, George C. Wolfe/Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
BEST ACTRESS
1) Carey Mulligan/Promising Young Woman
2) Frances McDormand/Nomadland
3) Viola Davis/Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
4) Andra Day/The United States vs. Billie Holiday
5) Vanessa Kirby/Pieces of a Woman
6) Sophia Loren/The Life Ahead
7) Amy Adams/Hillbilly Elegy
8) Zendaya/Malcolm and Marie
9) Sidney Flanigan/Never Rarely Sometimes Always
10) Michelle Pfeiffer/French Exit
Other Possibles: Meryl Streep/The Prom, Nichole Behaire/Miss Juneteenth
BEST ACTOR
1) Chadwick Boseman/Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
2) Anthony Hopkins/The Father
3) Riz Ahmed/Sound of Metal
4) Gary Oldman/Mank
5) Steven Yeun/Minari
6) Delroy Lindo/Da 5Bloods
7) Tahar Rahim/The Mauritanian
8) Mads Mikkelsen/Another Round
9) Ben Affleck/The Way Back
10) Tom Hnaks/News of the World
Other Possibles: Kingsley Ben-Adir/One Night in Miami, John David Washington/Malcolm and Marie
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
1) Glenn Close/Hillbilly Elegy
2) Yuh-jung Youn/Minari
3) Maria Bakalova/Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
4) Olivia Colman/The Father
5) Amanda Seyfried/Mank
6) Jodie Foster/The Mauritanian
7) Helena Zengel/News of the World
8) Ellen Burstyn/Pieces of a Woman
9) Dominique Fishback/Judas and the Black Messiah
10) Saoirse Ronan/Ammonite
Other Possibles: Olivia Cooke/Sound of Metal, Talia Ryder/Never rarely Sometimes Always
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
1) Daniel Kaluuya/Judas and the Black Messiah
2) Sacha Baron Cohen/The Trial of the Chicago 7
3) Leslie Odom, Jr./One Night in Miami
4) Chadwick Boseman/Da 5 Bloods
5) Paul Raci/Sound of Metal
6) Jared Leto/The Little Things
7) David Strathairn/Nomadland
8) Bill Murray/On the Rocks
9) Stanley Tucci/Supernova
10) Bo Burnham/Promising Young Woman
Other Possibles: Frank Langella/The Trail of the Chicago 7, Mark Rylance/The Trial of the Chicago7, Glynn Turman/Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
1) The Trial of the Chicago 7
2) Promising Young Woman
3) Minari
4) Mank
5) Sound of Metal
6) Never Rarely Sometimes Always
7) Judas and the Black Messiah
8) Soul
9) Da 5 Bloods
10) Palm Springs
Other Possibles: On the Rocks, The 40 Year Old Version
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
1) Nomadland
2) One Night in Miami
3) The Father
4) Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
5) News of the World
6) Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
7) First Cow
8) The White Tiger
9) I'm Thinking of Ending Things
10) Emma
Other Possibles: The Mauritanian, Pieces of a Woman
DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
1) Crip Camp; a Disability Revolution
2) Time
3) Collective
4) Dick Johnson Is Dead
5) All In: The Fight for Democracy
6) The Truffle Hunters
7) Boys State
8) Welcome to Chechnya
9) My Octopus Teacher
10) Gunda
INTERNATIONAL FEATURE
1) Another Round
2) Quo Vadis, Aida
3) Two of Us
4) Collective
5) La Llorona
6) I'm No Longer Here
7) A Sun
8) Night of the Kings
9) Dear Comrades
10) Sun Children
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
1) Soul
2) Wolfwalkers
3) Over the Moon
4) Onward
5) Croods: The New Age
6) A Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon
7) Earwig and the Witch
8) The Willoughbys
9) Trolls: World Tour
10) Demon Slayer
Other Possibles: Lupin, Bombay Rose, On-Gaku, Calamity
CINEMATOGRAPHY
1) Nomadland
2) Mank
3) News of the World
4) Tenet
5) Minari
6) Judas and the Black Messiah
7) The Trial of the Chicago 7
8) First Cow
9) One Night in Miami
10) I'm Thinking of Ending Things
EDITING
1) The Trial of the Chicago 7
2) Nomadland
3) Mank
4) News of the World
5) Tenet
6) Sound of Metal
7) The Father
8) Promising Young Woman
9) One Night in Miami
10) Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
ORIGINAL SCORE
1) Soul
2) News of the World
3) Mank
4) The Midnight Sky
5) Tenet
6) Minari
7) The Trial of the Chicago 7
8) Da 5 Bloods
9) The Little Things
10) Blizzard of Souls
ORIGINAL SONG
1) Io Si/The Life Ahead
2) Speak Now/One Night in Miami
3) Hear My Voice/The Trial of the Chicago 7
4) Husavik/Eurovision Song Contest
5) Fight for You/Judas and the Black Messiah
6) Turntables/All In: The Fight for Democracy
7) Wuhan Flu/Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
8) Never Break/Giving Voice
9) Rain Song/Minari
10) See What You've Done/Belly of the Beast
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
1) Mank
2) News of the World
3) Tenet
4) Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
5) Emma
6) The Midnight Sky
7) The Personal History of David Copperfield
8) Mulan
9) The Trial of the Chicago 7
10) One Night in Miami
Other Possibles: Judas and the Black Messiah, First Cow, Jingle-Jangle: A Christmas Journey
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
1) Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
2) Emma
3) Mank
4) News of the World
5) Mulan
6) Promising Young Woman
7) Ammonite
8) Jingle Jangle: A Christmas Journey
9) The United States vs. Billie Holiday
10) The Personal History of David Copperfield
Other Possibles: The Glorias, The Trial of the Chicago 7
BEST MAKEUP/HAIR
1) Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
2) Hillbilly Elegy
3) Birds of Prey
4) Mank
5) Emma
6) Pinocchio
7) One Night in Miami
8) The Glorias
9) Jingle Jangle: A Christmas Journey
10) The Little Things
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
1) Tenet
2) The Midnight Sky
3) Mank
4) Mulan
5) Welcome to Chechnya
6) The One and Only Ivan
7) Birds of Prey
8) Soul
9) Love and Monsters
10) Bloodshot
BEST SOUND
1) Sound of Metal
2) Tenet
3) Mank
4) News of the World
5) The Midnight Sky
6) Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
7) Soul
8) The Trial of the Chicago 7
9) Da 5 Bloods
10) The Outpost
Other Possibles: Greyhound, Nomadland, The Prom, The Invisible Man
BEST ANIMATED SHORT
1) If Anything Happens I Love You
2) Out
3) Burrow
4) Kapaemahu
5) The Snail and the Whale
6) Opera
7) To Gerard
8) Genius Loci
9) Yes-People
10) Traces
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT
1) A Love Song for Latasha
2) Hysterical Girl
3) A Concerto Is a Conversation
4) Colette
5) What would Sophia Loren Do?
6) Hunger Ward
7) Abortion Helpline
8) Speed Cubers
9) Do Not Split
10) Call Center Blues
BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT
1) The Human Voice
2) Two Distant Strangers
3) The Letter Room
4) Feeling Through
5) Da Yie
6) The Present
7) White Eye
8) The Kicksled
9) The Van
10) Bittu
FINAL OSCAR PICKS FROM THE EXPERTS
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