OSACR UPDATE: THE BIG EIGHT AND THE SHORTS
Here I am updating Oscar nomination predictions with a week left until the nominees are announced. As usual, you'll see the last position of the film/performer in parentheses and when the category was last predicted. TFF films are in Bold.
BEST PICTURE (last predicted Mar. 1st)
1) Nomadland (2)
2) The Trial of the Chicago 7 (1)
3) Minari (3)
4) Promising Young Woman (5)
5) Mank (4)
6) One Night in Miami (6)
7) Ma Rainey's Black Bottom (7)
8) News of the World (9)
9) Sound of Metal (8)
10) The Father (-)
Other Possibles: Da 5 Bloods, Judas and the Black Messiah
BEST DIRECTOR (Last predicted Feb. 22)
1) Chloe Zhao/Nomadland (1)
2) David Fincher/Mank (2)
3) Emerald Fennell/Promising Young Woman (3)
4) Aaron Sorkin/The Trial of the Chicago 7 (4)
5) Lee Isaac Chung/Minari (5)
6) Regina King/One Night in Miami (6)
7) Spike Lee/Da 5 Bloods (7)
8) Paul Greengrass/News of the World (9)
9) Florian Zeller/The Father (8)
10) Shaka King/Judas and the Black Messiah (-)
Other Possibles: Darius Marder/Sound of Metal, George C. Wolfe/Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
BEST ACTRESS (Last predicted on Feb. 11th)
1) Carey Mulligan/Promising Young Woman (1)
2) Frances McDormand/Nomadland (2)
3) Viola Davis/Ma Rainey's Black Bottom (3)
4) Andra Day/The united States vs. Billie Holiday (6)
5) Vanessa Kirby/Pieces of a Woman (4)
6) Sophia Loren/The Life Ahead (7)
7) Amy Adams/Hillbilly Elegy (9)
8) Zendaya/Malcolm and Marie (5)
9) Sidney Flanigan/Never Rarely Sometimes Always (8)
10) Michelle Pfeiffer/French Exit (-)
Other Possibles: Meryl Streep/The Prom, Nichole Behaire/Miss Juneteenth
BEST ACTOR (Last predicted Feb. 11th)
1) Chadwick Boseman/Ma Rainey's Black Bottom (1)
2) Anthony Hopkins/The Father (2)
3) Riz Ahmed/Sound of Metal (3)
4) Gary Oldman/Mank (5)
5) Steven Yeun/Minari (6)
6) Delroy Lindo/Da 5Bloods (4)
7) Tahar Rahim/The Mauritanian (10)
8) Tom Hanks/News of the World (8)
9) Ben Affleck/The Way Back (7)
10) Mads Mikkelsen/Another Round (-)
Other Possibles: Kingsley Ben-Adir/One Night in Miami, John David Washington/Malcolm and Marie
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS (Last predicted Feb. 18th)
1) Glenn Close/Hillbilly Elegy (1)
2) Yuh-jung Youn/Minari (2)
3) Olivia Colman/The Father (3)
4) Maria Bakalova/Borat Subsequent Movie Film (5)
5) Amanda Seyfried/Mank (4)
6) Jodie Foster/The Mauritanian (8)
7) Helena Zengel/News of the World (7)
8) Ellen Burstyn/Pieces of a Woman (6)
9) Dominique Fishback/Judas and the Black Messiah (9)
10) Saoirse Ronan/Ammonite (-)
Other Possibles: Olivia Cooke/Sound of Metal, Talia Ryder/Never rarely Sometimes Always
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR (Last predicted Feb. 18th)
1) Daniel Kaluuya/Judas and the Black Messiah (1)
2) Sacha Baron Cohen/The Trial of the Chicago 7 (2)
3) Leslie Odom, Jr./One Night in Miami (3)
4) Chadwick Boseman/Da 5 Bloods (4)
5) Paul Raci/Sound of Metal (4)
6) Jared Leto/The Little Things (8)
7) David Strathairn/Nomadland (7)
8) Bill Murray/On the Rocks (6)
9) Stanley Tucci/Supernova (-)
10) Bo Burnham/Promising Young Woman (-)
Other Possibles: Frank Langella/The Trail of the Chicago 7, Mark Rylance/The Trial of the Chicago7, Glynn Turman/Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY (Last predicted Feb. 18th)
1) The Trial of the Chicago 7 (1)
2) Promising Young Woman (2)
3) Minari (3)
4) Mank (4)
5) Sound of Metal (5)
6) Never Rarely Sometimes Always (7)
7) Judas and the Black Messiah (8)
8) Soul (9)
9) Da 5 Bloods (6)
10) Palm Springs (10)
Other Possibles: On the Rocks, The 40 Year Old Version
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY (Last predicted Feb. 18th)
1) Nomadland (1)
2) One Night in Miami (2)
3) The Father (4)
4) Ma Rainey's Black Bottom (3)
5) News of the World (6)
6) First Cow (5)
7) Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (8)
8) The White Tiger (-)
9) I'm Thinking of Ending Things (7)
10) Emma (9)
Other Possibles: The Mauritanian, Pieces of a Woman
BEST ANIMATED SHORT (First prediction)
1) If Anything Happens I Love You
2) Out
3) Burrow
4) Kapaemahu
5) The Snail and the Whale
6) Opera
7) To Gerard
8) Genius Loci
9) Yes-People
10) Traces
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT (First prediction)
1) A Love Song for Latasha
2) Hysterical Girl
3) A Concerto Is a Conversation
4) Colette
5) What would Sophia Loren Do?
6) Hunger Ward
7) Abortion Helpline
8) Speed Cubers
9) Do Not Split
10) Call Center Blues
BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT (First prediction)
1) The Human Voice
2) Two Distant Strangers
3) The Letter Room
4) Feeling Through
5) Da Yie
6) The Present
7) White Eye
8) The Kicksled
9) The van
10) Bittu
THE CRITICS CHOICE AWARDS
The Critics Choice Awards were held last night. TFF films were nominated for a dozen of them.
Nomadland (6): Best Picture, Director, Actress, Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography and Editing
The Father (4): Best Actor, Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay and Editing
First Cow (2): Adapted Screenplay and Cinematography
Nomadland was the evening's big winner with four awards: Best Picture, Best Director, Best Adapted Screenplay and Best Cinematography. The Father and First Cow did not secure any trophy from the occasion.
Acting winners were: Carey Mulligan-Best Actress/Promising Young Woman, Chadwick Boseman-Best Actor/Ma Rainey's Black Bottom, Maria Bakalova/Supporting Actress/Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, Daniel Kaluuya-Supporting Actor/Judas and the Black Messiah, Alan Kim/Young Actor/Minari and The Trial of the Chicago 7 won for Best Ensemble.
The BFCA spread the wealth with only four films winning more than one of the prizes: Nomandlan-4, Ma Rainey's-3, Promising Young Woman-2 and Minari-2.
A BUFFET OF TRUFFLES
As Oscar nomination voting is ongoing, TFF #47 documentary selection, The Truffle Hunters continues to have a high profile. There were three separate interviews posted this week that I came across with the film's directors Michael Dweck and Gregory Kershaw.
The film is definitely in Oscar contention for Best Feature Documentary (and maybe ought to also be in the conversation for cinematography). Fully eight of Gold Derby's 24 experts are currently predicting it to be nominated.
I have linked all three of the interviews with Dweck and Kershaw below:
LATEST GURUS FOCUSES ON THE BIG EIGHT
The latest Gurus of Gold forecast focuses on the Big Eight categories. Picture, Director, the the acting and Screenplay categories. in an interesting twist, we were asked to name just the top two contenders in all but the Best Picture category.
Take a look at the new charts. They were posted on Friday. As you may note, my latest Best Picture forecast from above has Nomadland back in the lead. The race between it and Chicago 7 is tight and fluid. Enough so that in the space of 72 hours, my prediction has changed.
EMAIL: mpgort@gmail.com
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