Obsessing about the Telluride Film Festival and the film awards season since 2008!
"The best blog out there for predicting what will be going to Telluride."-Matt Neglia, Next Best Picture
"The Nostradamus of Telluride"
-Tim Appelo, Movies for Grownups
Here's an update for my predictions of the lead acting categories for the 94th Academy Awards. As always, TFF #48 performers are in Bold. The performers' last position in these predictions is indicated to the right in parentheses. These categories were last predicted on Oct. 21st.
LEAD ACTING
BEST ACTRESS
1) Kristen Stewart/Spencer (1)
2) Jessica Chastain/The Eyes of Tammy Faye (2)
3) Lady Gaga/House of Gucci (5)
4) Olivia Colman/The Lost Daughter (4)
5) Frances McDormand/The Tragedy of Macbeth (3)
Alternates: Penelope Cruz/Parallel Mothers and Jodie Comer/The Last Duel
BEST ACTOR
1) Will Smith/King Richard (1)
2) Denzel Washington/The Tragedy of Macbeth (2)
3) Benedict Cumberbatch/The Power of the Dog (3)
4) Pere Dinklage/Cyrano (4)
5) Andrew Garfield/tick, tick...BOOM (5)
Alternates: Joaquin Phoenix/C'mon C'mon and Clifton Collns/Jockey
NEW CATEGORIES:
CINEMATOGRAPHY
1) Dune
2) The Tragedy of Macbeth
3) Belfast
4) The Power of the Dog
5) West Side Story
Alternates: Nightmare Alley and Spencer
EDITING
1) Belfast
2) Dune
3) King Richard
4) The Power of the Dog
5) Nightmare Alley
Alternates: West Side Story and Licorice Pizza
PRODUCTION DESIGN
1) Dune
2) Nightmare Alley
3) The French Dispatch
4) West Side Story
5) The Tragedy of Macbeth
Alternates: The Power of the Dog and Belfast
BIFA NOMINATIONS AND TFF #48
The British Independent Film Awards announced nominees for its 2021 edition and Kenneth Branagh's Belfast (and TFF #48 selection) co-lead the haul with 11 total nominations. Boiling Point also had 11 nominations. Other TFF #48 films picking up BIFA noms included: Encounter, The Electrical Life of Louis Wain, Cow, Flee, Petite Maman and TFF #47 selection First Cow. TFF films had a total of 26 nominations.
Here's the breakdown by film:
Belfast (11): Actress (Balfe), Supporting Actress (Dench), Supporting Actor (Hinds), Breakthrough Performer (Hill), Casting, Cinematography, Costumes, Music, Editing, Makeup/Hair and Production Design.
Encounter (4): Actor (Ahmed), Supporting Actor (Chauhan), Music and Sound.
The Electrical Life of Louis Wain (4): Costume, Effects, Makeup/Hair and Production Design.
Cow (4): Documentary, Cinematography, Editing and Sound.
Flee (1): International Independent Film.
Petite Maman (1): International Independent Film.
First Cow (1) (TFF #47): International Independent Feature.
Indiewire's crew this past week has profiled actor Benedict Cumberbatch (The Power of the Dog and The Electrical Life of Louis Wain) and multi-hypenate Kenneth Branagh (Belfast). Passing those along to you with the following links:
So another TFF is in the books. We arrived back home about 9:30 on Monday night. I had planned to catch King Richard and attend the picnic and then leaving but decided at the last minute to head home early. I hate that we missed the picnic and the chance to hobnob one last time but it also felt good to get home before midnight especially since I was back in my classroom on Tuesday.
Fest stuff:
I saw fewer films (even with the extra day) this year than normal. Chalk it up to a more leisurely approach to the fest. In order of preference they were:
The Power of the Dog
Belfast
Marcel the Shell with Shoes On
Cyrano
Land of Gold
Julia
The French Dispatch
The Velvet Underground
BLOG BIZ
With the addition of The Card Counter to the program that meant that MTFB went 24/25 for the Final Bets with an additional couple of correct predictions from the "Other Possibles" category: Bergman Island and Unclenching the Fists.
The single miss was The First 54 Years.
Additionally, from the original Ten Bets list back in June, MTFB had eight titles on that list that played the fest. Here's a re-look at those predictions from June 24:
1) The Power of the Dog/Campion
2) Muhammad Ali/Burns, Burns and McMahon
3) The Card Counter/Schrader
4) Nightmare Alley/Del Toro
5) The Velvet Underground/Haynes
6) Bergman Island/Hansen-Love
7) Cow/Arnold
8) A Hero/Farhadi
9) Blonde/Dominik
10) The Story of Looking/Cousins
Don't discount the possibility of: Dune, Julia, Mothering Sunday, Petite Maman, Where Is Anne Frank?, Paris 13th District and The Eyes of Tammy Faye.
Missed on Nightmare Alley and Blonde. From the "possibility" list that also made the TFF #48 lineup: Julia and Petite Maman. Without backtracking...that might be the best initial Ten Bets since I started predicting in that manner.
WHAT'S NEXT?
The Professionals and the People's Telluride film ratings will coming in the next week or so. After they post I'll do what I call the Combination Telluride. As is the usual case, I'll also begin to talk about the Oscar season with the focus being on the films that played at TFF #48.
Also, per suggestion of an MTFB reader, I'm going to work on adding a section that contains all of the ratings that I have compiled over the years.
POSTERS
***BELFAST
***THE CARD COUNTER
***THE HAND OF GOD
***BERGMAN ISLAND
***C'MON C'MON
***ENCOUNTER
TEASERS AND TRAILERS
***BELFAST
***BERGMAN ISLAND
***C'MON C'MON
***ENCOUNTER
THE PEOPLE'S TELLURIDE
For the ninth non-consecutive year MTFB is soliciting your input for The People's Telluride. All you have to do is watch films during the fest and then, when it's all over, report to me your assessment of each film on a 1-5 scale with 1 being "UGH!" and 5 being "GREAT". This years People's cutoff date is SUNDAY, SEPT. 12TH.
Report your ratings with any of the following contact methods:
EMAIL: mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com
Mike Fleming writing for Deadline.com writes that:
"I hear he (Coppola) will be at Telluride this weekend to unveil restored versions of his films The Rain People, and The Outsiders: The Complete Novel. After doing the work and feeling at peace with those past great films, as Coppola holds court at that festival, I expect the dominant conversation will be about how he is looking forward, toward Megalopolis."
So add The rain People and The Outsiders to your list as probable titles to be announced later today.
According to Deadline.com's Pete Hammond, Nat Geo's documentary about Dr. Anthony Fauci will be a part of the Telluride lineup. Will the Good Doctor be in the San Juans/ That would blow my mind.
Here's a look at the trailer for the doc from YouTube:
BUZZ BUZZ BELFAST
Late buzz is that Kenneth Branagh's Belfast could land in Telluride over this Labor Day weekend. Billed as a World Premiere for the Toronto Fest, something would need to be off for this to be true. On the other hand, the buzz is pretty loud.
AND THEN THERE'S THIS...
Jason Osiason of Fantastic Film Fans tweeted this late yesterday afternoon:
If that doesn't get you excited about this weekend, I don't know what would.
I'll add anything more to update here prior to the lineup announcement...if there IS anything more to post.
TFF has denied my application to be an accredited journalist again this year. Here's the wording of the denial email:
"We unfortunately unable to offer you media accreditation for the 2021 Telluride Film Festival".
It's been exactly the same language for three years running. They last accredited me in 2018.
Here's a question- anyone else reading this been denied or know of someone who has been denied?
Never a reason. Just "unfortunately unable". And believe me, I've asked for a rationale.
I've been fairly sure that it really comes down to a couple of posts that specifically upset TFF leadership. So, I've tried to be more sensitive to how what I write might be viewed by TFF leadership. Tried very hard after a couple of things that the fest let me know that they were not fond of. Over the last year or so, I have sat on a couple of stories that I felt that the fest would rather not be out of the bag until they were ready. Just a two-three weeks back, I became aware of a situation wherein a film's IMDb listings had it playing at Telluride. Rather than report that, I sent a heads up email to the festival. Those efforts seem to have cut zero ice.
And then there's the general acrimony about what the central organizing principle of this space has been for 13 years.
But, you know, lots of other outlets speculate about possible Telluride selections. Of recent vintage I would point to Pete Hammond's June 18th Deadline post concerning TFF's annual L.A,. party. In that piece Hammond mentions no less than half a dozen films by name and hints at another four from Netflix. Yet, I have little doubt that Mr. Hammond and Deadline will receive accreditation and I wonder if Telluride emailed him a note of approbation like they've emailed me in the past.
Same with Jeff Wells at Hollywood Elsewhere yesterday (citing the Jordan Ruimy/World of Reel piece you'll see below, in which he rattles off more than a dozen titles of potential T-ride titles.
"But, Mike, maybe it's just because MTFB has such a small readership?" I hear you asking. And sure, I'll be the first to admit that the blog's numbers aren't big but I would argue that among that number, it lands with some impact. I won't get into followers and industry folks who have reached out over the years to remark to me how valuable a resource this thing has been and is, but it's substantial. And, again, I can imagine someone saying..."well, sure, anyone can claim that what they do has influence-show me the proof." And I'll say...won't name names...but you know who you are.
Also, if it's about smallish numbers...why where my numbers big enough for the eight years I was accredited?
And then there's the point that maybe there are limited spots for journalists. Could be, but they accredited a brand new Oscar outlet in 2019 which had had absolutely no previous experience at the fest.
TEN BETS #5 FOR TFF #48
Well, this is weird. Normally. the first Ten bets after Toronto's first announcement of titles causes a massive re-organization of the Ten Bets in the following post. This year...not so much. Last week's ten Bets and other possibilities were:
1) Something from Mark Cousins***
2) Muhammad Ali/Burns. Burns and McMahon
3) The Card Counter/Schrader
4) The Power of the Dog/Campion
5) Madres Paralelas (Parallel Mothers)/Almodovar
6) The Velvet Underground/Haynes
7) Nightmare Alley/Del Toro
8) A Hero/Farhadi
9) Julia/Cohen and West
10) Spencer/Larrain
Other Possibles: Dune, Where Is Anne Frank?, Paris 13th District and The Eyes of Tammy Faye, Blonde, Cow, House of Gucci, The Last Duel, Mothering Sunday and Bergman Island.
***Mark Cousins projects that could play:
The Story of Looking
The Storms of Jeremy Thomas
The Story of Film: The Next Generation
With the addition of information from Toronto our fifth edition of "Ten Bets" looks like this:
1) The Electrical Life of Louis Wain/Sharpe
2) Petite Maman/Sciamma
3) The Card Counter/Schrader
4) Something from Mark Cousins***
5) The Power of the Dog/Campion
6) The Velvet Underground/Haynes
7) Madres Paralelas (Parallel Mothers)/Almodovar
8) Julia/Cohen and West
9) A Hero/Farhadi
10) Spencer/Larrain
Other Possibles: Dune, The French Dispatch, Nightmare Alley, Where Is Anne Frank?, Blonde, Cow, House of Gucci, The Last Duel, Mothering Sunday, Encounter, The Velvet Underground, Muhammad Ali, The Hand of God, Don't Look Up, tick, tick..BOOM, Antlers, Being the Ricardos, Titaine, Pig, C'mon C'mon, The Humans, The Tragedy of Macbeth, Red Rocket, Last Exit: Space, Flee, King Richard.
***Mark Cousins projects that could play:
The Story of Looking
The Storms of Jeremy Thomas
The Story of Film: The Next Generation
Paris 13th District, Bergman Island and The Eyes of Tammy Faye all drop from the "Other Possibles" list as their premiere designation for Toronto indicates that they will not have played Telluride but nary a one of the Ten Bets from last week completely disappears this week and that's remarkably unusual.
Also of interest (to me anyway) is that the only film from this year's initial Ten Bets that looks to be out so far is Mia Hansen-Love's Bergman Island.
LOOKS AT POTENTIALS INCLUDING NEW DUNE TRAILER
Continuing to pass along sporadic looks at films that could make the TFF #48 lineup.
***LATE BREAKING: NEW DUNE TRAILER
***TRAILER AND POSTER FOR RIDLEY SCOTT'S THE LAST DUEL
THE CARD COUNTGER POSTER
TRAILER FOR FLEE
VENICE IS COMING
The Venice film Festival is set to announce the bulk of their lineup next week and the reality is that announcement really doesn't rule anything in or out for Telluride. The real info from Venice will be when they announce their schedule because that will tell you more about what's possible in an overlap between T-ride and Venice. We won't see the schedule until August, though.
We know that Almodover's Madres Paralelas is opening Venice on Sept. 1 and that Denis Villenueve's Dune is set for Sept. 3. Both of those are early enough in the Venetian sked to make a cross Atlantic jaunt and be at Telluride. Films have made that kind of schedule work in the past.
GOOD NEWS/BAD NEWS
Jordan Ruimy at World of Reel, just yesterday posted a "likely for Telluride" list and also some titles that he thinks will NOT play. Among other notes, he's very confident that Del Toro's Nightmare Alley and Dominik's Blonde will not be on the Telluride list. That bums me out as they were two of most hoped for Telluride titles.
The good news is that, in his estimation, Wes Anderson's The French Dispatch is back in Telluride play as well as a number of other films...many of which (seven to be exact) are on the Ten Bets list above.
