Obsessing about the Telluride Film Festival and the film awards season since 2008!
"The best blog out there for predicting what will be going to Telluride."-Matt Neglia, Next Best Picture
"The Nostradamus of Telluride"
-Tim Appelo, Movies for Grownups
"But it's our job." - Anne Thompson, Indiewire
We're down to less than three weeks before they open the envelopes on March 10th. Here's is my latest update on the predicted winners in the "Big Eight" of the 23 Oscar categories. Today's listing also includes a film/performers previous MTFB rank to the right in parentheses. TFF films are indicated in Bold.
BEST PICTURE
1) Oppenheimer (1)
2) Poor Things (2)
3) The Holdovers (3)
4) Anatomy of a Fall (6)
5) American Fiction (7)
6) Killers of the Flower Moon (4)
7) Barbie (5)
8) The Zone of Interest (8)
9) Maestro (9)
10) Past Lives (10)
BEST DIRECTION
1) Christopher Nolan/Oppenheimer (1)
2) Yorgos Lanthimos/Poor Things (2)
3) Martin Scorsese/Killers of the Flower Moon (3)
4) Jonathan Glazer/The Zone of Interest (4)
5) Justine Triet/Anatomy of a Fall (5)
BEST ACTRESS
1) Lily Gladstone/Killers of the Flower Moon (1)
2) Emma Stone/Poor Things (2)
3) Sandra Huller/Anatomy of a Fall (3)
4) Annette Bening/Nyad (4)
5) Carey Mulligan/Maestro (5)
BEST ACTOR
1) Cillian Murphy/Oppenheimer (2)
2) Paul Giamatti/The Holdovers (1)
3) Bradley Cooper/Maestro (3)
4) Jeffrey Wright/American Fiction (4)
5) Colman Domingo/Rustin (5)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
1) Da'Vine Joy Randolph/The Holdovers (1)
2) Emily Blunt/Oppenheimer (2)
3) America Ferrera/Barbie (4)
4) Danielle Brooks/The Color Purple (3)
5) Jodie Foster/Nyad (3)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
1) Robert Downey, Jr./Oppenheimer (1)
2) Ryan Gosling/Barbie (2)
3) Mark Ruffalo/Poor Things (3)
4) Robert DeNiro/Killers of the Flower Moon (4)
5) Sterling K. Brown/American Fiction (5)
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
1) American Fiction (3)
2) Barbie (2)
3) Oppenheimer (1)
4) Poor Things (4)
5) The Zone of Interest (5)
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
1) Anatomy of a Fall (1)
2) The Holdovers (2)
3) Past Lives (3)
4) Maestro (4)
5) May December (5)
Comment: Seem to be locked: Oppy for Best Picture, Nolan/Direction, Randolph/Supporting Actress, Downey for Supporting Actor and new to the "locked" category, Anatomy of a Fall for Original Screenplay. The Holdovers seems to have lost steam in the past couple of weeks in its bid for Original Screenplay.
Too close to call: Lead Acting races between Lily Gladstone and Emma Stone as well as Cillian Murphy and Paul Giamatti. At the moment I am currently giving the edge to Gladstone and Murphy due to SAG Awards wins. Also to close to call is Adapted Screenplay. It has been a three horse race but American Fiction and Barbie seem to have created a little separation from Oppenheimer.
Currently I have TFF films winning in two of these eight categories: Da'Vine Joy Randolph/The Holdovers and Anatomy of a Fall for Original Screenplay.
Final predictions for these categories will be posted on Oscar morning, March 10th in a special MTFB post.
CAROL DODA HAS A TRAILER
Picturehouse has dropped a Red Band trailer for the TFF #50 Documentary Carol Doda: Topless at the Condor. That became available on Tuesday. Here it is from YouTube:
MTFB OSCAR UPDATE: SUPPORITNG ACTING AND SCREENPLAYS
Today I'm continuing my first "educated" set of predictions for who/what will win on Oscar night, March 10th. The focus for this post is initial projections for the Supporting Acting and Screenplay races. As always TFF films are in Bold.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
1) Da'Vine Joy Randolph/The Holdovers
2) Emily Blunt/Oppenheimer
3) Jodie Foster/Nyad
4) America Ferrera/Barbie
5) Danielle Brooks/The Color Purple
Comment: Randolph is the prohibitive favorite.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
1) Robert Downey, Jr./Oppenheimer
2) Ryan Gosling/Barbie
3) Robert DeNiro/Killers of the Flower Moon
4) Mark Ruffalo/Poor Things
5) Sterling K. Brown/American Fiction
Comment: I'm a bit surprised at how bid the Downey, Jr. sentiment seems to be. I would have thought that this was a close race between he and Gosling but the early buzz is almost as strong for Downey, Jr. as Randolph has for Supporting Actress.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
1) Barbie
2) American Fiction
3) Oppenheimer
4) Poor Things
5) The Zone of Interest
Comment: A very tight race between the top three and, as a result, a category that could be determinative for a lot of Oscar pools.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
1) Anatomy of a Fall
2) The Holdovers
3) Past Lives
4) Maestro
5) May December
Comment: A two horse race between Anatomy and Holdovers that Anatomy seems to be leading at the moment.
Overall, from these four categories it looks likely that TFF films will pick up wins in two categories: Supporting Actress and Original Screenplay.
The Screen Actors Guild and the Directors Guild of America announced their nominees for excellence in film in 2023 yesterday. Four TFF films received nominations from SAG for acting excellence totaling seven nominations:
The Holdovers: Paul Giamatti-Lead Actor, Da'Vine Joy Randolph-Supporting Actress.
Poor Things: Emma Stone-Lead Actress and Willem Dafoe-Supporting Actor
Nyad: Annette Bening-Lead Actress and Jodie Foster-Supporting Actress
Rustin: Colman Domingo-Lead Actor
I was surprised that Mark Ruffalo was not nominated for Poor Things and that PT also missed for Best Ensemble.
Meanwhile, the Directors' Guild also announced their five nominees yesterday and two TFFers made the list of five names. Alexander Payne for The Holdovers and Yorgos Lanthimos for Poor Things were each nominated. They were joined Martin Scorsese (Killers of the Flower Moon), Christopher Nolan (Oppenheimer) and Greta Gerwig (Barbie).
The Sag Awards will be presented on Feb. 24th and the DGA will announce their winners on Feb. 10th.
The Producers Guils announces their nominees tomorrow.
MTFB OSCAR UPDATE: SCREENPLAYS AND MORE
Today I'm updating the Screenplay, International Feature, Documentary Feature, Cinematography and Editing categories. As usual TFF #50 films are in Bold. A film's previous position on the MTFB Oscar chart is listed in parentheses.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
1) The Holdovers (1)
2) Past Lives (3)
3) Anatomy of a Fall (4)
4) May December (5)
5) Maestro (-)
Alternates: Air, Saltburn, The Iron Claw.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
1) Oppenheimer (1)
2) Poor Things (3)
3) American Fiction (2)
4) Barbie (-)
5) Killers of the Flower Moon (4)
Alternates: All of Us Strangers, The Zone of Interest, and Are You There God, It's Me Margaret.
BEST DOCUMENTARY
1) American Symphony (1)
2) 20 Days in Mariupol (2)
3) Beyond Utopia (3)
4) Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie (4)
5) Four Daughters (5)
Alternates: The Eternal Memory, Going to Mars: The Nikki Giovanni Project and Stamped from the Beginning.
BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE
1) The Zone of Interest (1)
2) Society of the Snow (3)
3) The Taste of Things (2)
4) The Teachers' Lounge (4)
5) Fallen Leaves (5)
Alternates: Perfect Days, 20 Days in Mariupol and Totem.
CINEMATOGRAPHY
1) Oppenheimer (1)
2) Killers of the Flower Moon (2)
3) Poor Things (3)
4) Maestro (4)
5) The Zone of Interest (5)
Alternates: Saltburn, Barbie and The Color Purple.
Here's MTFB's Oscar Update. As we move to within a month of nomination announcements I am consolidating categories for each post. Today I'm updating the Best Picture, Direction and Acting categories. As usual TFF #50 films are in Bold. A film's previous position on the MTFB Oscar chart is listed in parentheses.
BEST PICTURE
1) Oppenheimer (1)
2) Barbie (2)
3) Killers of the Flower Moon (4)
4) Poor Things (5)
5) The Holdovers (6)
6) American Fiction (3)
7) Maestro (7)
8) Past Lives (8)
9) Anatomy of a Fall (-)
10) The Zone of Interest (10)
Alternates: The Color Purple, Air and May December.
BEST DIRECTION
1) Christopher Nolan/Oppenheimer (1)
2) Martin Scorsese/Killer of the Flower Moon (2)
3) Yorgos Lanthimos/Poor Things (4)
4) Greta Gerwig/Barbie (3)
5) Jonathan Glazer/The Zone of Interest (-)
Alternates: Bradley Cooper/Maestro, Alexander Payne/The Holdovers and Celine Song/Past Lives.
BEST ACTRESS
1) Lily Gladstone/Killers of the Flower Moon (1)
2) Emma Stone/Poor Things (2)
3) Carey Mulligan/Maestro (3)
4) Sandra Huller/Anatomy of a Fall (4)
5) Margot Robbie/Barbie (-)
Alternates: Greta Lee/Past Lives, Annette Bening/Nyad and Fantasia Barrino/The Color Purple.
BEST ACTOR
1) Bradley Cooper/Maestro (1)
2) Paul Giamatti/The Holdovers (3)
3) Cillian Murphy/Oppenheimer (2)
4) Jeffrey Wright/American Fiction (5)
5) Leonardo DiCaprio/ Killers of the Flower Moon (-)
Alternates: Colman Domingo/Rustin, Andrew Scott/All of Us Strangers and Barry Keoghan/Saltburn.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
1) Da'Vine Joy Randolph/The Holdovers (1)
2) Danielle Brooks/The Color Purple (2)
3) Emily Blunt/Oppenheimer (3)
4) Jodie Foster/Nyad (5)
5) Julianne Moore/May December (4)
Alternates: America Ferrera/Barbie, Rosamund Pike/Saltburn and Sandra Huller/The Zone of Interest.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
1) Ryan Gosling/Barbie (2)
2) Robert Downey, Jr./Oppenheimer (1)
3) Mark Ruffalo/Poor Things (3)
4) Robert DeNiro/Killers of the Flower Moon (4)
5) Charles Melton/May December (5)
Alternates: Willem Dafoe/Poor Things,Dominic Sessa/The Holdovers, Sterling K. Brown/American Fiction.
From these six categories, here's how TFF films are predicted:
Poor Things with four nominations and one other possibility: Picture, Direction, Actress (Stone) and Supporting actor (Ruffalo), Willem Dafoe is the added possibility for Supporting Actor.
The Holdovers with three nominations and two other possibilities: Picture, Actor (Giamatti), Supporting Actress (Randolph). The other two possibilities are Direction and Supporting Actor (Sessa).
The Zone of Interest with two nominations and an added possibility: Picture, Direction and a possible shot at Supporting Actress (Huller).
Anatomy of a Fall with two nominations: Picture and actress (Huller).
Nyad with one nomination and one other possibility. The nomination for Supporting Actress (Foster) and the possibility for Lead Actress (Bening).
Saltburn with no nominations but possible in two categories: Actor (Keoghan) and Supporting Actress (Pike).
All of Us Strangers possible for Actor (Scott).
Rustin possible for Actor(Colman).
Thursday's categories to be updated will be Screenplays, International Film, Documentary Feature, Cinematography and Editing.
THE OSCAR SHORT LISTS AND TFF
The Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences announced the Oscar Shortlists for 10 categories on Thursday. Those 10 categories: Documentary Feature, Documentary Short, International Feature, Makeup and Hair Styling, Original Score, Original Song, Animated Short, Live Action Short, Sound and Visual Effects.
Making the short list in these ten categories means that a film is eligible for nomination in them.
Here's where TFF films landed on the various lists:
Poor Things, The Zone of Interest and American Symphony each made it to three of the lists.
Poor Things: Score, Makeup/Hair and Visual Effects.
The Zone of Interest: International Feature, Score and Sound.
American Symphony: Documentary Feature, Score and Song.
No other TFF films made multiple lists but 18 other TFF films were shortlisted in various categories. Most impressive was in the International Feature category which had nine TFF films listed. In addition to the above mentioned The Zone of Interest these films also made that shortlist:
The Monk and the Gun
The Promised Land
Fallen Leaves
The Taste of Things
The Teachers' Lounge
Godland (from TFF #49)
Perfect Days
Totem.
In addition to American Symphony three other TFF docs made that shortlist:
Beyond Utopia
Bobi Wine: Ghetto President (TFF #49)
Desperate Souls, Dark City and the Legend of Midnight Cowboy (TFF #49)
In addition to Poor Things and American Symphony, two TFF films are also on the shortlist for Best Score:
The Holdovers
Saltburn
Three TFF films made the Documentary Shortlist:
If Dreams Were Lightning
The Last Repair Shop
Last Song from Kabul
And finally 27 made it to the Animated Short List and Strange Way of Life made it onto the Live Action Short list.
In all 27 TFF films are still alive in these 10 categories. Nominations are announced on Jan. 23rd.
In a surprise move, Telluride's Silver Medallion that was to have been presented last Labor Day weekend to actress Annette Bening will, instead be presented at a special event in Los Angeles on January 6th.
Bening, like most actors, was unable to attend TFF #50 due to the SAG/Aftra Strike that was ongoing at the time of the fest.
The Hollywood Reporter, among other outlets, reports that the event will include a career retrospective complete with clips from Bening's films as well as moderation from her Nyad co-star Jodie Foster. Meg Ryan will present the Silver Medallion.
MTFB OSCAR UPDATE: SUPPORTING ACTING, ORIGINAL SCORE AND SONG
Here's your Oscar Update for today's post. This is a check on predicted nominees for the Supporting Acting categories. They were last posted here on Nov. 30th. Previous positions on the MTFB Oscar Update is listed to the right in parentheses. Additionally, I have included my first predicitons in the categories of Best Original Song and Best Score. As always TFF films are Bold.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
1) Da'Vine Joy Randoplh/The Holdovers (1)
2) Danielle Brooks/The Color Purple (3)
3) Emily Blunt/Oppenheimer (2)
4) Julianne Moore/May December (5)
5) Jodie Foster/Nyad (4)
Alternates:Taraji P. Henson/The Color Purple, Rosamund Pike/Saltburn and America Ferrera/Barbie
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
1) Robert Downey, Jr./Oppenheimer (2)
2) Ryan Gosling/Barbie (1)
3) Mark Ruffalo/Poor Things (3)
4) Robert DeNiro/Killers of the Flower Moon (4)
5) Charles Melton/May December (5)
Alternates: Willem DaFoe/Poor Things,Dominic Sessa/The Holdovers, Sterling K. Brown/American Fiction.
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
1) What Was I Made For/Barbie
2) I'm Just Ken/Barbie
3) This Wish/Wish
4) Road to Freedom/Rustin
5) The Fire Inside/Flamin' Hot
Alternates: It Never Went Away/American Symphony, Dance the Night Away/Barbie and For the First Time/The Little Mermaid.
BEST SCORE
1) Oppenheimer
2) Killers of the Flower Moon
3) Spiderman: Across the Spiderverse
4) The Zone of Interest
5) Poor Things
Alternates: Society of the Snow, Elemental and Asteroid City.
CRITICS' CHOICE NOMINEES ANNOUNCED
The Critics' Choice Awards nominees for film were announced yesterday. Poor Things was the leader among TFF films with 13 nominations tying Oppenheimer for the second most nominations. Barbie was the leader overall with a staggering 18 nominations. The Holdovers showed very strong with eight nominations. In all TFF films earned 34 nominations for 10 films.
Here's The TFF breakdown:
Poor Things (13): Best Picture, Best Comedy Film, Direction, Actress (Stone), Supporting Actor (Ruffalo), Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, Editing, Production Design, Costumes, Makeup/Hair, Score and Visual Effects.
The Holdovers (8): Best Picture, Best Comedy, Direction, Actor (Giamatti), Supporting Actress (Randolph), Young Actor (Sessa), Ensemble, Original Screenplay.
Anatomy of a Fall (3): Best Foreign Language Film, Actress (Huller), Young Actor (Graner).
Saltburn (3): Best Picture, Cinematography, Production Design.
Rustin (2): Best Actor (Domingo), Song.
Nyad (1): Best Supporting Actress (Foster).
All of Us Strangers (1): Best Adapted Screenplay.
Perfect Days (1): Best Foreign Language Film.
The Taste of Things (1): Best Foreign Language Film.
The Zone of Interest (1): Best Foreign Language Film.
MTFB acquaintance Tomris Lafflly lead a post-screening conversation in New York on Monday night for The Holdovers. In attendance for the Q+A were Alexander Payne, Paul Giamatti, Da'Vine Joy Randolph and Dominic Sessa. Here's that via YouTube and Next Best Picture:
THREE TFF DOCS PGA NOMINATED
Three documentaries from TFF #50 and TFF #49 made the list of non-fiction films nominated by the Producers Guild of America as the outstanding doc for 2023.
Matthew Heineman's American Symphony and Madeleine Gavin's Beyond Utopia from TFF #50 were among the six docs announced by the PGA on Tuesday. Also nominated from TFF #49 was Anton Corbijn's Squaring the Circle: The Story of Hipgnosis.
The PGA documentary winner will be announced on Feb. 25th.
Here's your Oscar Update for today's post. This is a check on predicted nominees for the Supporting Acting categories. They were last posted here on Nov. 16th. Previous positions on the MTFB Oscar Update is listed to the right in parentheses. As always TFF films are Bold.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
1) Da'Vine Joy Randoplh/The Holdovers (1)
2) Emily Blunt/Oppenheimer (2)
3) Danielle Brooks/The Color Purple (4)
4) Jodie Foster/Nyad (3)
5) Julianne Moore/May December (5)
Alternates: Penelope Cruz/Ferrai, Taraji P. Henson/The Color Purple, and America Ferrera/Barbie
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
1) Ryan Gosling/Barbie (2)
2) Robert Downey, Jr./Oppenheimer (1)
3) Mark Ruffalo/Poor Things (4)
4) Robert DeNiro/Killers of the Flower Moon (3)
5) Charles Melton/May December (-)
Alternates: Willem DaFoe/Poor Things,Dominic Sessa/The Holdovers, Sterling K. Brown/American Fiction.
I'll have Screenplays predictions up on Monday as well as updated totals for TFF films in the eight big categories.
GOTHAM AWARDS AND TFF
The Gotham Awards were announced last Monday evening. Of TFF films the only film to take home a win was Justine Triet's Anatomy of a Fall which snagged two awards: one for best International Feature and the other Screenplay.
Celine Song's Past Lives was named Best Feature Film of 2023.
TFF films had been nominated for a total of 13 awards with Andrew Haigh's All of Us Strangers up for four which was made it the most nominated film of the bunch.
Here's your Oscar Update for today's post. This is a check on predicted nominees for the Supporting Acting categories. They were last posted here on Oct. 30th. Previous positions on the MTFB Oscar Update is listed to the right in parentheses. As always TFF films are Bold.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
1) Da'Vine Joy Randoplh/The Holdovers (1)
2) Emily Blunt/Oppenheimer (2)
3) Jodie Foster/Nyad (3)
4) Danielle Brooks/The Color Purple (4)
5) Julianne Moore/May December (5)
Alternates: Taraji P. Henson/The Color Purple, Penelope Cruz/Ferrari and America Ferrera/Barbie
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
1) Robert Downey, Jr./Oppenheimer (1)
2) Ryan Gosling/Barbie (2)
3) Robert DeNiro/Killers of the Flower Moon (3)
4) Mark Ruffalo/Poor Things (4)
5) Willem Dafoe/Poor Things (5)
Alternates: Charles Melton/May December, Dominic Sessa/The Holdovers, Sterling K. Brown/American Fiction.
I'll have updated Screenplay predictions in Monday's post.
DOC NYC ANNOUNCES SHORT LISTS
DOC NYC has announced three lists of documentaries for inclusion in its fest. The choices are often seen as being predictive of eventual Oscar nominations. The fest concludes today. These are the TFF films included on the various lists:
From Janus Films we saw the release this week of the official U.S. trailer for Totem, Mexico's selection for consideration for the International Film Oscar. Here it is from YouTube:
Here's MTFB's first Oscar Update for the Supporting Acting categories since the original set of predictions On Sept. 25th. As usual TFF #50 films are in Bold. A film's previous position on the MTFB Oscar chart is listed in parentheses.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
1) Da'Vine Joy Randoplh/The Holdovers (1)
2) Emily Blunt/Oppenheimer (2)
3) Jodie Foster/Nyad (3)
4) Danielle Brooks/The Color Purple (5)
5) Julianne Moore/May December (4)
Alternates: America Ferrera/Barbie, Rosamund Pike/Saltburn, Viola Davis/Air and Taraji P. Henson/The Color Purple
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
1) Robert Downey, Jr./Oppenheimer (1)
2) Ryan Gosling/Barbie (3)
3) Robert DeNiro/Killers of the Flower Moon (4)
4) Mark Ruffalo/Poor Things (2)
5) Willem Dafoe/Poor Things (5)
Alternates: Charles Melton/May December, Dominic Sessa/The Holdovers, Sterling K. Brown/American Fiction.
I'll update the screenplay categories next week.
TRAILERS: WERNER HERZOG-RADICAL DREAMER
From Shout Studios we have the U.S. trailer for TFF #49 entrant Werner Herzog-Radical Dreamer. The documentary is set for release on Dec. 5th. Here's the trailer from YouTube:
INTERVIEWS AND PROFILES: PAYNE, HAIGH AND MORE
Jimmy Chin and Elizabeth Chai Vasarhelyi on the set of Free Solo