MTFB Oscar Update: Picture, Direction and Lead Acting / Clip from Totem / Interviews and Profiles

MTFB OSCAR UPDATE: FIRST WINNER PREDICTIONS: PICTURE, DIRECTION, LEAD ACTING

Here's my first "educated" set of predictions for who/what will win on Oscar night, March 10th.  TFF films are in Bold.

BEST PICTURE

1) Oppenheimer

2) The Holdovers

3) Poor Things

4) American Fiction

5) Barbie

6) Killers of the Flower Moon

7) Anatomy of a Fall

8) The Zone of Interest

9) Maestro

10) Past Lives

Comment: It looks like, as has seemed true for months, that Best Picture is Oppenheimer's to lose.  I had thought that if The Holdovers could have gotten nominations for Payne, Sessa and Editing that we might have a real race.  With that scenario not coming to fruition it doesn't feel like any film is going to catch Oppy.

BEST DIRECTION

1) Christopher  Nolan/Oppenheimer

2) Yorgos Lanthimos/Poor Things

3) Martin Scorsese/Killers of the flower Moon

4) Justine Triet/Anatomy of a Fall

5) Jonathan Glazer/The Zone of Interest

Comment: If anything, Nolan has a tighter grip on this Oscar than Oppy has on Best Picture.

BEST ACTRESS

1) Lily Gladstone/Killers of the Flower Moon

2) Emma Stone/Poor Things

3) Sandra Huller/Anatomy of a Fall

4) Annette Bening/Nyad

5) Carey Mulligan/Maestro

Comment: Where Best and Direction seem foregone conclusions, this race is, at the moment, a barn-burner.  It really could go either way.  For the moment I gave Gladstone winning by the slimmest of margins.

BEST ACTOR

1) Paul Giamatti/The Holdovers

2) Cillian Murphy/Oppenheimer

3) Bradley Cooper/Maestro

4) Jeffrey Wright/American Fiction

5) Colman Domingo/Rustin

Comment: Giamatti is looking strong but Murphy is certainly still in play.

TFF films with 12 nominations in theses six categories and a projected win for Best Actor.

Next post: Supporting Acting and Screenplays. 

CLIP FROM TOTEM

Janus Films has released a clip from Mexico's entry for Oscar's International Feature award.  Totem, however, did not make the list of five nominees announced last week.  Here's the clip from YouTube:

INTERVIEWS AND PROFILES

Writer/Director Lila Aviles for Totem from Inocinema.

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Oscar Update: Supporting Acting / DOC NYC Announces Short Lists / Totem Trailer / Interviews and Profiles: Domingo, Payne, Dafoe and More

OSCAR UPDATE: SUPPORTING ACTING

Here's your Oscar Update for today's post.  This is a check on predicted nominees for the Supporting Acting categories.  They were last posted here on Oct. 30th.  Previous positions on the MTFB Oscar Update is listed to the right in parentheses.  As always TFF films are Bold.

 BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1) Da'Vine Joy Randoplh/The Holdovers (1)

2) Emily Blunt/Oppenheimer (2)

3) Jodie Foster/Nyad (3)

4) Danielle Brooks/The Color Purple (4)

5) Julianne Moore/May December (5)

Alternates: Taraji P. Henson/The Color Purple, Penelope Cruz/Ferrari and America Ferrera/Barbie

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1) Robert Downey, Jr./Oppenheimer (1)

2) Ryan Gosling/Barbie (2)

3) Robert DeNiro/Killers of the Flower Moon (3)

4) Mark Ruffalo/Poor Things (4)

5) Willem Dafoe/Poor Things (5)

Alternates: Charles Melton/May December, Dominic Sessa/The Holdovers, Sterling K. Brown/American Fiction.

I'll have updated Screenplay predictions in Monday's post.

DOC NYC ANNOUNCES SHORT LISTS

DOC NYC has announced three lists of documentaries for inclusion in its fest.  The choices are often seen as being predictive of eventual Oscar nominations.  The fest concludes today. These are the TFF films included on the various lists:

Documentary Feature:

American Symphony

Bobi Wine: The People's President

The Pigeon Tunnel

Shorts:

The Last Repair Shop

Winner's Circle:

Beyond Utopia

The complete lists are linked here from Variety.

TOTEM TRAILER

From Janus Films we saw the release this week of the official U.S. trailer for Totem, Mexico's selection for consideration for the International Film Oscar.  Here it is from YouTube:

INTERVIEWS AND PROFILES:

Colman Domingo for Rustin from Awards Radar.

George C. Wolfe for Rustin from The Hollywood reporter's Awards Chatter Podcast.

Willem Dafoe for Poor Things from The Hollywood Reporter.

Alexander Payne for The Holdovers from Filmmakermagazine.com.

Errol Morris for The Pigeon Tunnel from Pop Culture Confidential.

Christos Nikou for Fingernails from The Academy Conversations via YouTube.

Cinematographer Lukasz Zal for The Zone of Interest from The Hollywood Reporter.

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Gotham Awards Nominations / Occupied City Poster and Trailer / Interviews and Profiles: Payne, Hawke and More

GOTHAM AWARDS NOMINATIONS

The Gotham Awards nominees for 2023 were revealed on Tuesday.  It's the first of many, many awards groups and critics' group's recognitions for film of the year.

Seven TFF #50 films combined to earn 13 nominations lead by Andrew Haigh's All of Us Strangers with four.  Here's the nomination breakdown as reported by Next Best Picture. 

All of Us Strangers: Best International Feature, Lead Performance (Andrew Scott), Supporting Performance (Claire Foy) and Screenplay.

The Zone of Interest: Best International Feature, Supporting Performance (Sandra Huller), Screenplay.

Anatomy of a Fall: Best International Feature, Screenplay.

Poor Things: Best International Feature.

Totem: Best International Feature.

The Taste of Things: Best Supporting Performance (Juliette Binoche)

The Holdovers: Best Supporting Performance (Da'Vine Joy Randolph)

The Gotham Awards will be presented on Nov. 27th.

OCCUPIED CITY POSTER AND TRAILER

A24 has released a poster and a trailer for Steve McQueen's four hour long documentary focusing on the city of  Amsterdam; its occupation during World War II and the after effects of that.

Here's the poster:

And the trailer from YouTube:

INTERVIEWS AND PROFILES: PAYNE, HAWKE AND MORE

Alexander Payne on The Holdovers from The Upcoming on YouTube.

Ethan Hawke on Wildcat from The Atlanta Journal-Constitution.

Koji Yakusho on Perfect Days from The Hollywood Reporter.

Jimmy Chin and Elizabeth Chai Vasarhelyi on Nyad from Vanity Fair.

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Indiewire's Fall Film Fest Assessment / Mexico Chooses Totem / Poster for All of Us Strangers

INDIEWIRE'S FALL FILM FEST ASSESSMENT

Late last week Indiewire's Anne Thompson and Marcus Jones posted their assessment of fall film fest titles that they characterize "key players in the Oscar race".  Here are the Telluride titles that made that list arranged in order of their Metacritic score (included here in parentheses):

All of Us Strangers/Andrew Haigh (96)

The Zone of Interest/Jonathan Glazer (95)

Poor Things/Yorgos Lanthimos (91)

Anatomy of a Fall/Justine Triet (88)

Beyond Utopia/Madeliene Gavin (85)

The Holdovers/Alexander Payne (83)

The Taste of Things/Tran Anh Hung (80)

The Pigeon Tunnel/Errol Morris (78)

Cassandro/Roger Ross Williams (76)

The Teachers' Lounge/Ilker Catak (75)

The Promised Land/Nicolaj Arcel (74)

The Bikeriders/Jeff Nichols (74)

Perfect Days/Wim Wenders (72)

Rustin/George C. Wolfe (68)

Nyad/Jimmy Chin and Elizabeth Chai Vasarhelyi (65)

Saltburn/Emerald Fennell (59)

MEXICO CHOOSES TOTEM

Deadline, among other outlets, reports that Mexico has chosen Lila Aviles' Totem for consideration for the International Film Oscar.  The film joins a number of TFF #50 (and one TFF #49) titles that have entered the race.  As of this past weekend, here are the TFF films that have been put forward thus far:

The Monk and the Gun/Bhutan

The Promised Land/Denmark

Fallen Leaves/Finland

The Taste of Things/France

The Teachers' Lounge/Germany

Godland/Iceland (TFF #49)

Perfect Days/Japan

Totem/Mexico

The Zone of Interest/United Kingdom

POSTER FOR ALL OF US STRANGERS

Searchlight has dropped a new poster for Andrew Haigh's All of Us Strangers.  The film stars Andrew Scott and Paul Mescal and is currently set for release on Dec. 22nd.  Here's the poster:

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