Oscar Breakdown/#OccupyOscar!/Editors' Speak/Wim Speaks/Oscar Surprises

OSCAR PREDICTION BREAKDOWN.

If the nominations were announced this morning and The FAC was 100% accurate, the nomination totals for feature films would look like this:

The Artist                              11

Hugo                                      10

War Horse                               9 (but I think that’s on the high side)

The Help                                  7

The Descendants                      5

Moneyball                                5

With three nominations each: Midnight in Paris, The Tree of Life, My Week with Marilyn, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo (I’ll bet it has more than three), Rise of the Planet of the Apes, Albert Nobbs, The Adventures of Tintin and Transformers.

With two apiece: The Iron Lady, Bridesmaids, Harry Potter/Deathly Hallows, and The Muppets.

Single nominations for: J. Edgar, Beginners, Drive, Warrior, Win Win, 50/50, Tinker Tailor, Extremely Loud, Super 8 and Jane Eyre.

#OCCUPY OSCAR

How are my #occupyoscar projects faring a week away from nominations???

Michael Fassbender for Best Actor in Shame…looks reasonably likely.

Carey Mulligan for Best Supporting Actress in Shame…her chances exist but are slim.

Janet McTeer for Best Supporting Actress in Albert Nobbs…she has a decent shot.

Ezra Miller for Best Supporting Actor for We Need to Talk About Kevin…not happening.

Corey Stoll for Best Supporting Actor for Midnight in Paris…also not happening.

Asghar Farhadi for Best Original Screenplay for A Separation…it could happen, but it’s a stretch.

Mike Mills for Best Original Screenplay for Beginners…slim chance, very slim.

EDITORS SPEAK

The American Cinema Editors announced their nominees for excellence this year and they are (according to Awards Daily):

NOMINEES FOR 62nd ANNUAL ACE EDDIE AWARDS

BEST EDITED FEATURE FILM (DRAMATIC):

The Descendants
Kevin Tent, A.C.E.

The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Angus Wall, A.C.E. & Kirk Baxter, A.C.E.

Hugo
Thelma Schoonmaker, A.C.E.

Moneyball
Christopher Tellefsen, A.C.E.

War Horse
Michael Kahn, A.C.E.

BEST EDITED FEATURE FILM (COMEDY OR MUSICAL):

The Artist
Anne-Sophie Bion & Michel Hazanavicius

Bridesmaids
William Kerr & Michael L. Sale

Midnight in Paris
Alisa Lepselter

My Week with Marilyn
Adam Recht

Young Adult
Dana E. Glauberman, A.C.E.

BEST EDITED ANIMATED FEATURE FILM:

The Adventures of Tintin
Michael Kahn, A.C.E. 

Puss in Boots
Eric Dapkewicz

Rango
Craig Wood, A.C.E. 

This actually probably aids The Descendants in its uphill struggle to win Best Picture from The Artist.  It probably hurts the chances of The Help.  Our FAC metric for Editing Oscar looked like this prior to the A.C.E. announcement:

EDITING

1)       The Artist

2)       War Horse

3)       Hugo

4)       Girl with the Dragon Tattoo

5)       Moneyball

Also in play:

6)       Drive

7)       The Descendants

8)       Extremely Loud

9)       The Tree of Life

10)   The Ides of March

Other possibles: The Help, Tinker Tailor, J. Edgar, Contagion, Rise of the Planet of the Apes, Midnight in Paris, Warrior

WIM SPEAKS

A Guy Lodge interview with director Wim Wenders on the possible double Oscar nominee “Pina” here:

http://www.hitfix.com/blogs/in-contention/posts/interview-wim-wenders-on-overcoming-loss-and-meeting-3d-in-pina

OSCAR SURPRISES???

Steve Pond at The Wrap wrote an interesting “what if” post last Friday (the day Oscar nomination ballots were due) about weird things that could happen.  Take a look; it’s kind of entertaining:

http://www.thewrap.com/awards/column-post/10-oscar-shocks-could-probably-wont-happen-34362?page=0,3

Good Morning America, How Are You?  (Thanks, Arlo!)

WHERE WE STAND:

Oscar nominations will be announced one week from tomorrow and if The Clearinghouse metric is correct, the following statements would be true…

There would be 7 or 8 Best Picture nominees and they would be (in order of likelihood): The Artist, The Descendants, The Help, War Horse, Hugo, Midnight in Paris, Moneyball and maybe The Tree of Life.

War Horse has been weakened and The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, The Ides of March and Bridesmaids have all improved.

Among Telluride #38 films, the metric suggests that:

 The Artist will have 11 nominations; more than any other picture and maybe the ONLY film with double digit Oscar nominations this year (though it appears increasingly likely that Hugo will have 10):  Picture, Actor, Supporting Actress, Director, Original Screenplay, Editing, Cinematography, Art Direction, Costumes, Original Score and Makeup.

The Descendants will have five nominations with an outside shot at two others.  Nominations for: Picture, Actor, Supporting Actress, Director and Adapted Screenplay.  Possibles for Editing and Cinematography.

Surprisingly, the next most potentially nominated TFF #38 film may be Albert Nobbs.  I liked it a lot (you can read my review for The Playlist from T-ride here: http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/telluride_11_review_albert_nobbs_glenn_close_mia_wasikowska  ), but many critics were not bowled over by it.  Nevertheless, as it stands this morning, my analysis suggests three nominations for Actress, Song and Makeup with a strong possibility for an additional nomination for Supporting Actress.

Pina looks to be dual nominated as Best Foreign Language Film and Best Documentary.

Shame and A Separation each look to get a single nomination and a possible second nod as well.  For Shame, Fassbender looks pretty solid for Best Actor and Carey Mulligan has an outside shot at a Supporting Actress nod.  For A Separation, a virtual certain nomination as Best Foreign Language Film and a possible Original Screenplay nom.

Single nominations are likely for We Need to Talk About Kevin (Swinton/Actress) and In Darkness and Le Havre, both for Foreign Language Film.

Films with outside shots but NOT expected to be nominated are A Dangerous Method in Best Supporting Actor and Art Direction and Footnote as Best Foreign Language Film.

All told, as of this morning, The FAC says 26 nominations for Telluride 2011 with another 8 possibilities and that does not include any of the “short” categories: Live Short, Animated Short and Documentary Short where T-ride will almost certainly add a couple of additional nominations.

For a festival that has seemed likely to max out at about two dozen nominations for most of the season, the end result is looking rosier and could (and I stress “could”) end up close to last year’s  30+ nominations.

Tomorrow we’ll look at the latest rankings for the BIG 4 categories in detail one week away from Announcement morning.

GOLDEN GLOBES IN THE REARVIEW…

Last night’s Golden Globes results are listed below:

Song: Masterpiece/Madonna et. al./W.E.

Score: Ludovic Bource/The Artist

Screenplay: Woody Allen/Midnight in Paris

Direction: Martin Scorsese/Hugo

 Foreign Language: A Separation

Animated: Adventures of Tintin

Supporting Actress: Octavia Spencer/The Help

Supporting Actor: Christopher Plummer/Beginners

Actress (Comedy or Musical): Michele Williams/My Week with Marilyn

Actor: (Comedy or Musical): Jean Dujardin/The Artist

Actress (Drama): Meryl Streep/The Iron Lady

Actor (Drama): George Clooney/The Descendants

Film (Comedy or Musical): The Artist

Film (Drama): The Descendants

Telluride finished the night with 6 Globes.

The Breakdown:

The Artist-3

The Descendants-2

One each for The Help, W.E., Midnight in Paris, Hugo, Tintin, Beginners, My Week with Marilyn,  A Separation and The Iron Lady.

Surprises?  No big ones.  Maybe the song choice or Tintin…

Bumps/Fails?  Since the Oscar nomination ballots are in, obviously no affect there.  Williams and Streep maybe got a little PR boost in their contest with Viola Davis.  The Artist looks like the film to beat.

 A look tomorrow at the Oscar breakdown and more "below the line" Oscar info.

Follow me on Twitter @Gort2

FLASH: GOLDEN GLOBES PREDICTIONS FOR TONIGHT

GOLDEN GLOBES PREDICTIONS FROM THE FILM AWARDS CLEARINGHOUSE

There are 14 film categories that will be announced tonight between japes from host Ricky Gervais.  Here are The FAC predictions for them:

Song: The Living Proof/The Help
Score: Ludovic Bource/The Artist
Screenplay: Michel Hazanavicius/The Artist
Direction: Michael Hazanavicius/The Artist
Foreign Language: A Separation
Animated: Rango
Supporting Actress: Jessica Chastain/The Help
Supporting Actor: Christopher Plummer/Beginners
Actress (Comedy or Musical): Michele Williams/My Week with Marilyn
Actor: (Comedy or Musical): Jean Dujardin/The Artist
Actress (Drama): Viola Davis/The Help
Actor (Drama): George Clooney/The Descendants
Film (Comedy or Musical): The Artist
Film (Drama): The Descendants

Should this come to pass Telluride #38 claims 8 of the 14 awards.  Multiple Globe winners would be:

The Artist with 5
The Help with 3
and The Descendants with 2

We'll see what happens tonight....

Special to the FAC: Documentary, Art Direction, Costumes and The Golden Globes

SPECIAL TO THE FAC: DOCUMENTARY, ART DIRECTION, COSTUMES AND THE GOLDEN GLOBES!

Here’s a snapshot of where the Oscar race is in three “below the line/non-Big 8” categories.   Information collected from: Awards Daily, Incontention.com, The Hollywood Reporter, Film Misery, The Film Experience, Awards Circuit and Rope of Silicon.

DOCUMENTARY (FEATURE LENGTH)

1)       Project Nim

2)       Paradise Lost 3

3)       Buck

4)       We Were Here

5)       Pina

Also in play:

6)       If a Tree Falls

7)       Bill Cunningham

8)       Semper Fi

9)       Loving Story

10)   To Hell and Back

Other possibles: The Undefeated, Sing Your Song, Battle for Brooklyn

Comment: Pina has the distinction of possibly being a dual nominee for Doc and Best Foreign Language Film and is, of course, a graduate of Telluride #38

ART DIRECTION

1)       Hugo

2)       The Artist

3)       Harry Potter/Deathly Hallows

4)       Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy

5)       War Horse

In play:

6)       Anonymous

7)       The Tree of Life

8)       The Help

9)       Girl with the Dragon Tattoo

10)   A Dangerous Method

Outside shots: Capt. America, Midnight in Paris, Drive

Comment: We’ll see if the War Horse dive affects its chances at a nomination here.

COSTUMES

1)       Hugo

2)       The Artist

3)       Jane Eyre

4)       My Week with Marilyn

5)       The Help

Also playing:

6)       Anonymous

7)       W. E.

8)       Midnight in Paris

9)       The Iron Lady

10)   War Horse

Others that could sneak in: Albert Nobbs, J. Edgar, Tinker Tailor

Comment:  Back in September, I thought Albert Nobbs had a pretty good shot in this category as well as Art Direction and Makeup.  Now, makeup looks like its best shot at an additional nomination beyond Actress, Supporting Actress and Best Song.

GOLDEN GLOBES

The golden Globes are tonight.  What will the results from this wing-ding put on by The Hollywood Foreign Press Association tell us…almost zip….but it could give a jump start to someone’s or some film’s flagging Oscar campaign.  Check back here tomorrow…

Here's the list of GG nominees:

Best Motion Picture — Drama
"The Descendants"
"The Help"
"Hugo"
"The Ides of March"
"Moneyball"
"War Horse"

Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture — Drama
Glenn Close, "Albert Nobbs"
Viola Davis, "The Help"
Rooney Mara, "The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
Meryl Streep, "The Iron Lady"
Tilda Swinton, "We Need to Talk About Kevin

Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture — Drama
George Clooney, "The Descendants"
Leonardo DiCaprio, "J. Edgar"
Michael Fassbender, "Shame
Ryan Gosling, "The Ides of March"
Brad Pitt, "Moneyball"

Best Motion Picture — Comedy or Musical
"50/50"
"The Artist"
"Bridesmaids"
"Midnight in Paris"
"My Week With Marilyn"

Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture — Comedy or Musical
Jodie Foster, "Carnage
Charlize theron, "Young Adult"
Kristen Wiig, "Bridesmaids"
Michelle Williams, "My Week With Marilyn"
Kate Winslet, "Carnage"

Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture — Comedy or musical
Jean Dujardin, "The Artist
Brendan Gleeson, "The Guard"
Joseph Gordon-Levitt, "50/50"
Ryan Gosling, "Crazy, Stupid, Love."
Owen Wilson, "Midnight in Paris"

Best Animated Feature Film
"The Adventures of Tintin"
"Arthur Christmas"
"Cars 2"
"Puss in Boots"
"Rango"

Best Foreign Language Film
"The Flowers of War" (China)
"In the Land of Blood and Honey" (USA)
"The Kid With a Bike" (Belgium)
"A Separation" (Iran)
"The Skin I Live In" (Spain)

Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role in a Motion Picture
Berenice Bejo, "The Artist"
Jessica Chastain, "The Help"
Janet McTeer, "Albert Nobbs"
Octavia Spencer, "The Help"
Shailene Woodley, "The Descendants"

Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role in a Motion Picture
Kenneth Branagh, "My Week with Marilyn"
Albert Brooks, "Drive"
Jonah Hill, "Moneyball"
Viggo Mortensen, "A Dangerous Method"
Christopher Plummer, "Beginners"

Best Director — Motion Picture
Woody Allen, "Midnight in Paris"
George Clooney, "The Ides of March"
Michel Hazanavicius, "The Artist"
Alexander Payne, "The Descendants"
Martin Scorsese, "Hugo"

Best Screenplay — Motion Picture
Woody Allen, "Midnight in Paris"
George Clooney, Grant Heslov, Beau Willimon - "The Ides of March"
Michel Hazanavicius - "The Artist"
Alexander Payne, Nat Faxon, Jim Rash - "The Descendants"
Steven Zaillian, Aaron Sorkin - "Moneyball"

Best Original Score — Motion Picture
Ludovic Bource - "The Artist"
Abel Korzeniowski - "W.E."
Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross - "The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo"
Howard Shore - "Hugo"
John Williams - "War Horse"

Best Original Song — Motion Picture
"Hello Hello" — "Gnomeo & Juliet," music by Elton John, lyrics by Bernie Taupin
"The Keeper"— "Machine Gun Preacher," music and lyrics by Chris Cornell
"Lay Your Head Down" — "Albert Nobbs," music by Brian Byrne, lyrics by Glenn Close
"The Living Proof" — "The Help"; music by Mary J. Blige, Thomas Newman, Harvey Mason Jr.; lyrics by Mary J. Blige, Harvey Mason Jr., Damon Thomas
"Masterpiece" — W.E., music and lyrics by Madonna, Julie Frost, Jimmy Harry

Follow me on Twitter @Gort2

Special to the FAC: Foreign, Editing, Cinematography

SPECIAL TO THE FAC: FOREIGN, CINEMATOGRAPHY, EDITING 9 DAYS OUT

Continuing to look at “below the line” Oscar categories and the state of the Oscar race in each of them as we get closer and closer to nomination morning.  The Oscar predictors utilized for this analysis:

Scott Feinberg (The Hollywood Reporter

Sasha Stone (Awards Daily)

Kris Tapley (Incontention/Hit Fix)

Brad Brevet, Rope of Silicon

Film Experience

Film Misery

Awards Circuit

BEST FOREIGN FILM

1)       A Separation

2)       Where do We Go Now

3)       In Darkness

4)       Le Havre

5)       Pina

Other possibles:

6)       Happy Happy

7)       Footnote

8)       Miss Bala

9)       Monsieur Lazhar

10)   Flowers of War

Others: Once Upon a Time in Anatolia, Superclassico, Postcard, Declaration of War, A Simple Life, and Colors of the Mountain

Comment: A Separation is the only absolute lock in this category and is the odds on favorite to win the Oscar.   As I have said, it should also be a contender for Best Original Screenplay (and maybe it will get one of those five nods, the odds are better today than they were a month ago, #occupyoscar).  The LA film critics awarded it Best Screenplay at their soiree last night.  Of course, Oscar ballots for the nomination process were due yesterday, I believe.

After A Separation 2 thru 4 are likely, but not 100% definite by any means.  Pina could well get the fifth slot, but so could ANY of the next 6 films or even Anatolia…

And then there is the possibility that Footnote bumps out Where Do We Go Now and all five films that get nominated played at TFF #38…it’s not likely…but it could happen.

Also, the level of success of “Telluride” films in this category is likely to raise the number of total Oscar noms from this year’s fest.  I have been saying, almost since the Tuesday after the close of the festival that TFF #38 would produce in the neighborhood of 20-24 nominees this year.  This category may pump that number up by a couple….we’ll see Jan. 24

EDITING

1)       The Artist

2)       War Horse

3)       Hugo

4)       Girl with the Dragon Tattoo

5)       Moneyball

Also in play:

6)       Drive

7)       The Descendants

8)       Extremely Loud

9)       The Tree of Life

10)   The Ides of March

Other possibles: The Help, Tinker Tailor, J. Edgar, Contagion, Rise of the Planet of the Apes, Midnight in Paris, Warrior

Comment:  Conventional wisdom holds (and the history of the Oscars tends to prove) that it is very difficult to win Best Picture without a nomination in this category.  That’s why there was some interweb scuttlebutt this week about Fox Searchlight pushing hard for The Descendants in this category and also in Cinematography.  You can see from the above list that the “push” looks likes it has had at least some success. 

I was talking to a friend of mine this week who is an Academy member and an editor and he said that the best editing happens in a film where you don’t notice it.  He also said that Descendants had, in fact, been very well edited…so…

Personally, my guess is that if there is a departure from these five listed at the top, it would be Drive.

The A.C.E. announces its nominees for its Guild award on Monday…that might provide some clarity.

You also have to wonder if the War Horse swoon continues here.  Again, Monday’s guild announcement will be enlightening.

CINEMATOGRAPHY

1)       The Tree of Life

2)       Hugo

3)       War Horse

4)       The Artist

5)       The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo

Others with a shot (heh heh):

6)       Drive

7)       Harry Potter/Deathly Hallows

8)       Tinker Tailor

9)       The Descendants

10)   Extremely Loud

Outside shots (again, heh heh): Moneyball, Melancholia, Rise of the Planet of the Apes, Jane Eyre, J. Edgar, and A Dangerous Method.

Comment: The list is a tad behind events as some of my prognosticators haven’t updated in light of the guild announcement from the ASC earlier this week that left War Horse off the list (and if it can’t get some love in this category, where is it going to come from?)  The ASC nominated: Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy instead.  Will that be how it comes down on Oscar announcement day?  Probably.

Coming Sunday….Documentary, Art Direction and Costumes…

Follow me on Twitter @Gort2

Special to the FAC: Best Animated Film and Critic's Choice Awards

SPECIAL TO THE FAC: BEST ANIMATED FEATURE FILM 10 DAYS OUTWINNERS OF THE 17TH ANNUAL CRITICS’ CHOICE MOVIE AWARDS VIA MOVIE CITY NEWS ( Telluride #38 films in bold)




With just 10 days left until the Oscar nominations are announced here are the films most likely to named on Jan. 24 are ( one TFF #38 film is bold and large:



1) Rango

2) Puss in Boots

3) The Adventures on Tintin

4) Arthur Christmas

5) Kung Fu Panda 2



In the running:

6) Rio

7) Winnie the Pooh

8) Cars 2

9) Happy Feet 2

10) Chico and Rita



Others receiving notice: Wrinkles and Gnomeo and Juliet.



In a year that has been less than stellar in as far as animated films are concerned this category seems a lock for Rango. After that it’s simply which other films will be able to advertise that they were nominated. Rio has a reasonable shot to bump something out of the top five and snag a nomination.





BEST PICTURE
“The Artist”

BEST ACTOR
George Clooney – “The Descendants”

BEST ACTRESS
Viola Davis – “The Help”

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Christopher Plummer – “Beginners”

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Octavia Spencer – “The Help”

BEST YOUNG ACTOR/ACTRESS
Thomas Horn – “Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close”

BEST ACTING ENSEMBLE
“The Help”

BEST DIRECTOR
Michel Hazanavicius – “The Artist”

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
“Midnight in Paris” – Woody Allen

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
“Moneyball” – Steven Zaillian and Aaron Sorkin, Story by Stan Chervin

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY (TIE)
“The Tree of Life”
AND
“War Horse”

BEST ART DIRECTION
“Hugo”

BEST EDITING
“The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo”

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
“The Artist”

BEST MAKE-UP
“Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2”

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
“Rise of the Planet of the Apes”

BEST SOUND
“Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2”

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
“Rango”

BEST ACTION MOVIE
“Drive”

BEST COMEDY
“Bridesmaids”

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
“A Separation”

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
“George Harrison: Living in the Material World”

BEST SONG
“Life’s a Happy Song” – The Muppets
Performed by Jason Segel, Amy Adams and Walter
Written by Bret McKenzie and The Muppets

BEST SCORE
“The Artist”

JOEL SIEGEL AWARD
Sean Penn

CRITICS’ CHOICE MUSIC+FILM AWARD
Martin Scorsese

To view the Movie City News complete story abput last night's awards go here: http://moviecitynews.com/2012/01/the-17th-annual-critics%E2%80%99-choice-movie-awards-select/