I'm Not Official / Ten Bets 2019 #4 / New Trailer and Poster for Ad Astra / Ruimy Ruminates on Telluride

Hello from Salem, Oregon...

I'M NOT OFFICIAL 

And by that I mean...I have been denied media accreditation for the 46th Telluride Film Festival.  

I was first accredited in 2011 and have been accredited each year since then.  Eight straight.  This year...not so much.

The email notification came a week ago and said that the fest was"unfortunately unable" to offer me the accreditation.  The email went on to say that I'd be able to apply as a "new applicant" next year.

I responded with an email asking two questions:  Is there a specific reason I was denied and is there an appeal process.  

Let me be honest here.  I understand that the accreditation isn't a given and that the fest fully has the right to accredit whomever and whatever in any manner they choose.

And, as a practical matter, the accreditation means only a couple of things.  Media accreditation allows those that receive it to have priority access to the tributes as well as an additional four films of the holder's choosing and an invite to the Patron Preview on Friday afternoon.  It has also meant that I have received email notices from the fest about such items as the Guest Director, Poster Artist etc.

Also, as a side benefit, accredited journalists are placed on a list which results in direct notifications from the film distributors and publicists.  In turn, that has meant invitations to parties from Fox Searchlight, Netflix and Cohen Media.  I know that that's a shallow thing to get hung up on...but it has been nice for an Oklahoma guy to get invited to Hollywood parties.

Ultimately, the denial of accreditation stings especially after eight years of having been approved.  

TEN BETS 2019 #4

Here's the latest installment of MTFB's Ten Bets and that last one before announcements from other film fests (Toronto, Venice, London and New York...maybe Fantastic Fest) begin to give us a clear-eyed version of what we might expect to see over Labor Day weekend.

Here's last week's Ten Bets:

10) Nomadland
9) Judy
8) Motherless Brooklyn
7) Portrait of a Lady on Fire
6) Untitled Noah Baumbach Project
5) The Climb
4) Little Women
3) Family Romance LLC
2) Agnes by Varda
1) Parasite


Others in Play: The Good Liar, Jojo Rabbit, The Goldfinch, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood, Untitled Todd Haynes Project, Atlantics, The Laundromat, Radioactive, Country Music/Ryman Concert, The Lighthouse, Harriet, The Truth, Synonyms, Ad Astra, Molly, Lucy in the Sky.

This week's Ten Bets:


10) Country Music/Ryman Concert
9) The Truth
8) Judy
7) Motherless Brooklyn
6) Marriage Story (Previously Untitled Baumbach)
5) Portrait of a Lady on FIre
4) The Climb
3) Parasite
2) Family Romance LLC
1) Varda by Agnes

Little Women drops into the "Others in Play" category due to a bunch of buzz this past week that it might forgo festivals altogether.  Also on that list: The Good Liar, Jojo Rabbit, The Goldfinch, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood, Untitled Todd Haynes Project, Atlantics, The Laundromat, Radioactive, The Lighthouse, Harriet, Nomaland, Synonyms, Ad Astra, Molly, Lucy in the Sky, Uncut Gems, The Personal History of David Copperfield.

We'll get a big set of answers next week.


NEW TRAILER AND POSTER FOR AD ASTRA


Ahead of next week's announcements from Venice and Toronto came a new poster and trailer for James Gray's Ad Astra which suggest that we're likely to hear some news about that film in those announcements.

Here's the new poster:

And here's the link to the trailer via YouTube:

Additionally, Anton Volkov has reported via his Trailer Track website that we can expect to see trailers within a few days for A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood, Harriet and The Goldfinch.

RUIMY RUMINATES ON TELLURIDE

Jordan Ruimy at his website World of Reel was one of the places that out me onto the Jeff Sneider Tweet that teases the possibility of Uncut Gems playing TFF that I reported yesterday,

Jordan put that same pic on his website along with a list pf films that he has an inkling might play Telluride in the same post:

These films look Telluride-bound:

The Safdies’ Uncut Gems
James Gray's Ad Astra
Taika Waititi’s Jojo Rabbit
Fernando Meirelles' The Pope
Pablo Larrain's Ema
Hirokazu Kore-eda's The Truth
Bill Condon’s The Good Liar
Noah Baumbach’s Marriage Story
Steven Soderbergh’s The Laundromat
Noah Hawley’s Lucy in the Sky
Michael Angeo Covino’s The Climb
Celine Sciamma’s  Portrait of a Lady on Fire
Werner Herzog’s Family Romance LLC
Agnes Varda’s Varda by Agnes
Bong Joon-Ho’s Parasite

As you can see, Jordan's list looks a lot like mine...

Here's the link to Jordan's full story.


MORE REGARDING VENICE (AND TORONTO)

At the very bottom of yesterday's post you might have seen the late breaking blurb that Hirokazu Kore-eda's The Truth is the opening film.  That bodes well for a TFF screening.

The past six years of Venice openers suggest that The Truth is a very real possibility:

2018- First Man
2017- Downsizing
2016- La La Land
2015- Everest
2014- Birdman
2013- Gravity

That's five of the last six openers that went on to TFF.


Meanwhile Variety's Nick Vivarelli posted on Tuesday a string of films that he suggests will probably play at Venice.  Among those he lists that are best bets for Telluride as well are:

Ad Astra
Marriage Story
Joker
The Aeronauts
The Pope
The King
Against All enemies
Ema
Wasp Network

That Variety post is here.

Finally, Toronto announced its opening film will be a Canadian produced documentary about Robbie Robertson and The Band titled Once Were Brothers: Robbie Robertson and The Band.  That choice should have zero impact in terms of TFF 2019 films.


That's today's MTFB from Oregon.  I'll have more next week including the analysis of the first flight of announced films from Toronto and what those choices tell us about TFF #46,


EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com

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The Distributors 2019: Amazon Studios / The Report Release / Just Off the "If I Had To"

Welcome back from your Father's Day weekend.  Twas also my dad's birthday weekend...he's 83!


THE DISTRIBUTORS 2019: AMAZON STUDIOS

Last Friday I talked about Netflix and it's no secret that streaming platforms have changed the landscape when it comes to film festivals, Oscar and T-ride.  Amazon Studios has also been a huge player in that transition and as such has become, over the last three years, an outfit to be noticed when trying to handicap The SHOW as well as the Oscar race.

Amazon had serious Oscar players last year with Cold War (Three Oscar nominations including Best Director) and in 2016 with Manchester by the Sea (which allowed Casey Affleck to win the Oscar for Best Actor and Kenneth Lonergan to win for Best Original Screenplay).

Amazon Studios Telluride resume is small but mighty:

2018: Peterloo, Cold War
2017: Wonderstruck
2016: Manchester by the Sea

And here were my numbers attempting to predict their chances at Telluride for 2018.  I posted the Amazon picks on June 21st last year.

Peterloo- 75%
Cold War- 50%
Beautiful Boy 40%
Photograph- 30%
Life Itself- 20%


And, as you can see, the high percentages for Peterloo and Cold War panned out.

Looking at this year, Amazon's potential for T-ride inclusion is substantial.  As of today, they have at least five films that are part of the conversation:

Against All Enemies/Andrews
The Goldfinch/Crowley
Les Miserables/Ly
Radioactive/Satrapi
The Report/Burns

Andrews, Crowley and Satrapi have all had films play at Telluride previously each with a single film:

Andrews: 2016: Una
Crowley: 2003: Intermission
Satrapi: 2007: Persepolis

On Friday last week, you may have noticed that I listed Crowley's The Goldfinch as one of my ten "If I Had To" list.  The Goldfinch is actually split between Amazon and Warner Bros.

Consequently, The Goldfinch leads the Amazon list in terms of chances to play T-ride in 2019 but each of the five films have a serious chance to make it.

The chances:

The Goldfinch 60%
Radioactive 50%
Les Miserables 40% (Cannes prize winner: Jury Prize)
Against All Enemies 40%
The Report 35% (played Sundance but so did Manchester by the Sea...see below)


Tomorrow, I'll take a stab at evaluating the lineup from Focus Features.



THE REPORT RELEASE

Adam Driver in The Report (via IMDb)

The Report was very well received at its original screening at Sundance in February (94% at Rotten Tomatoes) and since then I have been suggesting that it might be one of the films for which the programmers at Telluride might make an exception.

Telluride rarely...and I mean rarely...programs a film that has played previously at Sundance.  It happened a couple of years back with Manchester by the Sea which was produced by Amazon Studios.  The Report is being distributed this year by Amazon as well.

Not surprisingly, we found out over the weekend that The Report will have a theatrical release prior to its streaming debut on Sept. 27th.  Tom Bruggeman at Indiewire, among others, posted that on Thursday.  You can find more details in the Indiewire story linked here.

That date would certainly allow The Report to make the lineup at The SHOW as well as Toronto.   New York seems unlikely as that fest opens on the 27th as well.


JUST OFF THE "IF I HAD TO"

Friday I kind of did an unofficial list of films that I was spitballing as possible TFF #46 films.  If you missed them, that list again was:

Atlantics
The Climb
Country Music
Family Romance LLC
The Goldfinch
Nomadland
Parasite
Portrait of a Lady on Fire
Untitled Todd Haynes Project
Varda by Agnes

In addition to those ten films there are a few others that I feel like may also be semi-serious potentials:

Harriet, Motherless Brooklyn, Synonyms, Little Women, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood, The Truth.


More to come on Tuesday...

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com

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