Telluride #39 Isn't Over/Another 2014 Oscar List

ONLY TWELVE HOURS LATE, BUT HERE IT IS...

Good Thursday.

TFF #39 ISN'T OVER

Films that were are a part of The SHOW lineup in 2012 are still rolling out and making news as they do.  Just this week we've seen the first trailer for Sarah Polley's very well received documentary "Stories We Tell".  I've posted a couple of stories that accompanied that film's roll out from The Playlist as well as Rope of Silicon:

http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/watch-trailer-for-sarah-polleys-amazing-family-documentary-stories-we-tell-20130305

http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/stories-we-tell-trailer-2014-oscar-contender-for-best-documentary/

As you cab see ROS writer Brad Brevet thinks "Stories" is already a Best Doc contender for next year's Oscars.

I've posted the trailer from YouTube:

Another documentary that got a lot of attention at TFF #39 was Dror Moreh's "The Gatekeepers" which was Oscar nominated but dropped to "Searching for Sugarman".  Moreh has been a gadfly as he has been promoting the film.  I've linked interview's with the director from Vice and PBS:

http://www.vice.com/read/the-director-of-the-gatekeepers-talks-about-israels-terrifying-security-state

http://www.pbs.org/newshour/art/blog/2013/02/the-oscar-documentaries-part-3the-gatekeepers.html


Here's the trailer for it too:

And in an effort to be a full service Telluride Film Blog, "At Any Price", the Dennis Quaid, Zac Efron melodrama has released an official poster:

  

I've linked an accompanying story from collider.com:

http://collider.com/at-any-price-poster/

ANOTHER 2014 OSCAR LIST

HitFix has put together a gallery featuring 25 films that the staff thinks have 2014 Oscar potential.  What's on it?

The not complete list includes: 

"August: Osage County**", "Captain Phillips"**, "The Counselor", "Diana"**,  "The Fifth Estate**", "Foxcatcher"**,"Inside Llewyn Davis", "Labor Day"**, "Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom"**, "The Monuments Men", "A Most Wanted Man"**, "Nebraska"**, "Oldboy"**and "Twelve Years a Slave".

Those films with an ** are some of the films on the HitFix list that they think have at least a theoretical chance of playing at Telluride.

The complete gallery is here:

http://www.hitfix.com/galleries/25-potential-oscar-contenders-for-2014/more-galleries

That's it for now, more on Monday.

Follow me on Twitter @Gort2.

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The FAC: 15 Oscar Categories and Where We Stand/Oscar Matters/TFF #39: This and That/Big Dates

Good Martin Luther King, Jr. Day to All...

THE FAC: 15 OSCAR CATEGORIES

Here’s the first look from The Film Awards Clearinghouse at the Oscar field since the nominations were announced and in light of The Golden Globes that were awarded last weekend.  This week, I’m taking a look at 15 of the 24 Oscar categories that will be awarded on Feb. 24^th.  Films/Individuals ranked in order of the likelihood of winning.

The FAC reviews the Oscar predictions of the following to arrive at its "predictions":

Sasha Stone/Awards Daily
Scott Feinberg/The Feinberg Forecast-The Hollywood Reporter
Kristopher Tapley/InContention-HitFix
Anne Thompson/Thompson on Hollywood-IndieWire
Peter Knegt/IndieWire
Brad Brevet/Rope of Silicon
Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit
Nathaniel Rogers/Film Experience
Alex Carlson/Film Misery

Telluride #39 films are indicated in Bold.

BEST PICTURE

1)      Lincoln

2)      Silver Linings Playbook

3)      Life of Pi

4) Argo

5)      Zero Dark Thirty

6)      Les Miserables

7)      Beasts of the Southern Wild

8) Amour

9)      Django Unchained

Comment:  The BIG category is still generally regarded by our panel of Oscar experts as “Lincoln’s” to lose.  Its lead is substantial.  If there is a challenge, different experts have different theories about where that might come from. 

“Silver Linings” has all the right boxes checked off with acting nominations in each of the four categories plus nominations for directing, writing and editing…all of which generally are regarded as crucial to Best Picture Oscar success. 

“Life of Pi’s” claim to be the usurper comes from being the second most nominated film with 11, only 1 behind “Lincoln”.

“Argo’s” theory of upset is a little more of a labyrinth…involving the rectification of the perceived slight to Ben Affleck in not being nominated for Best Direction…again, some think that many in the directing branch thought his nomination was assured and looked elsewhere to spread the nominations around.  The theory goes that so many voters did that that Ben was left off the list entirely…Maybe. 

Actually, a buddy of mine who’s  a member of that branch of The Academy has suggested as much himself.  And, realistically, I think that had Affleck been nominated, “Argo” would be the easy upset pick…maybe even edging into a co-favorite position with “Lincoln”  My understanding is that trend of thinking has captured a number of the Oscar experts that are surveyed by The Gold Derby and Movie City News’ Gurus of Gold.

Nevertheless, it hasn’t turned up that way in my first review of the nine Oscarologists that I use for The Film Awards Clearinghouse as “Argo” sits at #4, though the spread between #2 and #4 is very small.

None of the other five films are remotely close.

BEST DIRECTION

1)      Steven Spielberg/Lincoln

2)      Ang Lee/Life of Pi

3)      David O. Russell/Silver Linings Playbook

4)      [tie] Michael Haneke/Amour and Benh Zeitlin/Beasts of the Southern Wild

Comment:  As goes “Lincoln” so goes the directing category.  Spielberg’s lead is substantial over Lee.

BEST ACTRESS

1)      Jennifer Lawrence/Silver Linings

2)      Jessica Chastain/Zero Dark Thirty

3) Emmanuelle Riva/Amour

4)      Quvenzhane Wallis/Beasts

5)      Naomi Watts/The Impossible

Comments:  A category that is regarded as being tight, wasn’t as close as I thought it would be when I ran the numbers.  It’s close, but Lawrence has an edge.

BEST ACTOR

1)      Daniel Day Lewis/Lincoln

2)      Hugh Jackman/Les Miserables

3)      Bradley Cooper/Silver Linings

4)      Denzel Washington/Flight

5)      Joaquin Phoenix/The Master

Comment: DDL for the win…

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1)      Anne Hathaway/Les Miserables

2)      Sally Field/Lincoln

3)      Helen Hunt/The Sessions

4)      Amy Adams/The Master

5)      Jacki Weaver/Silver Linings

Comment:  Anne Hathaway…start planning a place for your trophy…she’s way out front.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1)      Philip Seymour Hoffman/The Master

2)      Tommy Lee Jones/Lincoln

3)      Robert DeNiro/Silver Linings

4)      Christoph Waltz/Django

5) Alan Arkin/Argo

Comment:  This is a great and very competitive category.  I was surprised to find Hoffman with a slight lead over Tommy Lee Jones using my metric, but it’s very, very close.  Waltz and DeNiro aren’t all that far behind either.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1)      Tony Kushner/Lincoln

2)      David O. Russell/Silver Linings

3) Chris Terrio/Argo

4)      David Magee/Life of Pi

5)      Lucy Alibar and Benh Zeitlin/Beasts

Comment: Looks like Kushner’s to lose.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1)      Quentin Tarantino/Django Unchained

2)      Mark Boal/Zero Dark Thirty

3) Michael Haneke/Amour

4)      Wes Anderson and Roman Coppola/Moonrise Kingdom

5)      John Gatins/Flight

Comment: This is a very close category among the top three contenders.  3 points separate them.  Fun to watch this over the next few weeks.

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

1) Amour

2) A Royal Affair

3) No

4)      War Witch

5)      Kon Tiki

Comment: “Amour” FTW.

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

1)      Brave

2)      Frankenweenie

3)      Wreck It Ralph

4)      ParaNorman

5)      Pirates: Band of Misfits

Comment: Another category that’s very tight among the top 3.

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

1)      Searching for Sugarman

2) The Gatekeepers

3)      How to Survive a Plague

4)      The Invisible War

5)      5 Broken Cameras

Comment: “Sugarman’s” search for an Oscar ends in victory on Feb. 24…it’s way, way out front.

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

1)      Life of Pi

2)      Skyfall

3)      Lincoln

4)      Anna Karenina

5)      Django Unchained

Comment: “Pi” looks solidly in the lead with Roger Deakins looking to finally win an Oscar (for “Skyfall”) apparently its only real threat.

BEST FILM EDITING

1) Argo

2)      Zero Dark Thirty

3)      Lincoln

4)      Life of Pi

5)      Silver Linings Playbook

Comment: A close race between William Goldenberg (Argo) and himself (with Dylan Tichenor for Zero Dark Thirty).  Lincoln also has a shot.

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

1)      Life of Pi

2)      Lincoln

3)      Anna Karenina

4) Argo

5)      Skyfall

Comment: Actually, this is a tie between “Pi” and “Lincoln”…with “Anna” and “Argo” close enough to steal it away.

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

1)      Skyfall (Skyfall)

2)      Les Miserables (Suddenly)

3)      Chasing Ice (Before My Time)

4)      Ted (Everybody Needs a Friend)

5)      Life of Pi (Pi’s Lullaby)

Comment: What has been perceived as a close contest between “Skyfall” and “Les Miz” is perceived now as a fairly comfortable lead for “Skyfall” after The Golden Globes.

Next week, I’ll update the Top 6 categories and take a look at the other feature categories left out in this post…Sound Mixing and Editing, Costume, Makeup and Hair, Production Design and Visual Effects.

OSCAR MATTERS

Taking a look at the Oscar predictions and analysis from some of the best in the business...


     +GOLD DERBY...TWO PODCASTS...

http://ec.libsyn.com/p/c/9/5/c95b1fbb7c423cea/Oscar_Predictions_USA_Today.mp3?d13a76d516d9dec20c3d276ce028ed5089ab1ce3dae902ea1d01cd8f30d1cc5dad2f&c_id=5321391

http://ec.libsyn.com/p/b/f/d/bfd18a54722c3576/LAT_Oscars_Predictions.mp3?d13a76d516d9dec20c3d276ce028ed5089ab1ce3dae902ea1d01cd8f30d1cf5b5f91&c_id=5327818

Gold Derby also reports that the race is narrowing with "Argo" sneaking up on "Lincoln".  I haven't seen that...yet but Gold Derby has a larger sample of Oscarologists.  Here's that post:

http://www.goldderby.com/news/3872/argo-oscars-academy-awards-lincoln-zero-dark-thirty-les-miserables-silver-linings-playbook-entertainment-news-718593624.html


     +FEINBERG FORECAST

The latest predictions for Oscar from The Hollywood Reporters' Scott Feinberg:

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/race/feinberg-forecast-updated-projections-5-413908

     +THE HOLLYWOOD REPORTERS

Scott Feinberg and Gregg Kilday look at the Oscar race post-Globes in this video:

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/race/best-picture-oscar-frontrunner-hollywood-413423


TFF #39: THIS AND THAT (about films that played at this year's fest)

     +AFFLECK ON 'ARGO"

YouTube has this up with Ben Affleck talking about the process of making the film that has 7 Oscar nominations:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=6TAn6j9OKcI

     +A ROYAL AFFAIR

Now that it has secured an Oscar nomination for Best Foreign Language Film, Magnolia is re-releasing Denmark's Mads Mikkelsen starrer, "A Royal Affair" according to Anne Thompson/Thompson on Hollywood:

http://blogs.indiewire.com/thompsononhollywood/a-royal-affair-re-released

     +"AT ANY PRICE"

It's won't surprise readers of this blog when I repeat that I thought this film was borderline awful when I caught it at this year's SHOW...This year's "Butter" or "Fur"...just not a good movie.  Although that sentiment wasn't universal.  Alex Billington at FirstShowing.net loved it, for example.  Nevertheless, in an effort to be a full service blog...here's the news: Sony Pictures Classics has released the official trailer for the film that stars Dennis Quaid and Zac Efron.  Here's the note from SPC:

http://movies.yahoo.com/movie/at-any-price/trailers/price-trailer-171017552.html

And here's the trailer:

BIG DATES

So, what's left on the calendar of import between now and the Oscar presentation?  Here are the dates that may still hold some clues for Oscar diviners (per Sasha Stone at Awards Daily):

Oscar final voting runs from Feb. 8-19.
Producers Guild announces: Jan. 26.
Screen Actor's Guild announces: Jan. 27
Director's Guild announces: Feb. 2
British Academy (BAFTA) announces: Feb. 10
Writers Guild announces Feb. 17
OSCARS Feb. 24


More on Thursday...

Follow me on Twitter @Gort2.

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TFF #39 is a Wrap/Critical Consensus/Monday Viewings/Remember TFF #40/And Thanks/And Finally

Good Tuesday Everyone!  It's done and I am rolling back to Oklahoma...

TFF #39 IS A WRAP

I tweeted at one point yesterday that Monday of the Film Fest is always kind of a bummer...tinged with melancholy because I know that the magic that has been created in this beautiful place is coming to a close and that I have to return to my real life.  Now, don't get me wrong...I love what I do and the kids I get to teach...but this weekend...it is very, very special.  Here's the closing press release in its entirety:

39^TH TELLURIDE FILM FESTIVAL’S FOUR-DAY EVENT COMES TO A CLOSE

Telluride, CO, September 3, 2012 – Telluride Film Festival (August 31 – September 3, 2012), presented by the National Film Preserve, draws to a close today following a spectacular weekend of diverse programming, surprise screenings and special guests.

“As the 39^th Telluride Film Festival closes, we are energized by the talent we’ve seen by both emerging and established filmmakers,” said Festival Co-Directors Julie Huntsinger, Gary Meyer and Tom Luddy. “Following what has been a bountiful cinematic feast, we look toward next year’s 40^th Anniversary of TFF with anticipation of what’s yet to come.”

Telluride Film Festival screened twenty-five new feature films in its main program, seven film revivals selected by Guest Director Geoff Dyer, twelve Backlot programs, six revival programs, 29 shorts and student films, and hosted ten seminars and conversations between festival guests.

Ben Affleck presented his newest film ARGO (U.S., 2012) as an unofficial part of the Telluride Film Festival program known to attendees as a “Sneak Preview.”

39^th Telluride Film Festival guests and program participants include: Oskar Alegria, Nikolaj Arcel, Ramin Bahrani, Noah Baumbach, Gael García Bernal, Satya Bhabha, Wayne Blair, Katriné Boorman, Serge Bromberg, Ken Burns, Sarah Burns, Roger Corman, Marion Cotillard, Mark Cousins, C. Chapin Cutler Jr., Christine Cynn, Ziad Doueiri, Geoff Dyer, Shivendra Singh Dungarpur, Dave Eggers, Michael Fitzgerald, Scott Foundas, Liz Garbus, Jack Garfein, Greta Gerwig, Shirley Henderson, John Horn, Viktor Denes Huszar, Katrina Kirk, Robert Kirk, Shaun Kirk, Stephanie Kirk, Ed Lachman, Pablo Larraín, Valentina Leduc, Laura Linney, Ray Liotta, Leonard Maltin, Haifaa Al Mansour, Todd McCarthy, David McMahon, Deepa Mehta, Kad Merad, Mads Mikkelsen, The Mont Alto Motion Picture Orchestra, Dror Moreh, Kim Morgan, Errol Morris, David Moynihan, Bill Murray, Marielle Nitoslawska, Alessandro Nivola, Joshua Oppenheimer, Alexander Payne, Christian Petzold, Sarah Polley, Sally Potter, Juan Carlos Rulfo, Salman Rushdie, Carolee Schneeman, Matthias Schoenaerts, Donald Sosin, Mickey Sumner, Margarete Tiesel, Paolo Cherchi Usai, Ariel Vroman and Michael Winterbottom.

Previously announced Telluride Film Festival Silver Medallion awards, given to recognize an artist’s significant contribution to the world of cinema, went to Roger Corman, Marion Cotillard and Mads Mikkelsen. The Special Medallion award, given to a hero of cinema who preserves, honors and presents great movies, went to C. Chapin Cutler Jr. and Boston Light & Sound.

Previously announced new feature films that played in the official 39th Telluride Film Festival main program: THE ACT OF KILLING (d. Joshua Oppenheimer, Denmark, 2012); AMOUR (d. Michael Haneke, Austria, 2012); AT ANY PRICE (d. Ramin Bahrani, U.S., 2012); THE ATTACK (d. Ziad Doueiri, Lebanon-France, 2012); BARBARA (d. Christian Petzold, Germany, 2012); THE CENTRAL PARK FIVE (d. Ken Burns, Sarah Burns, David McMahon, U.S., 2012);EVERYDAY (d. Michael Winterbottom, U.K., 2012); FRANCES HA (d. Noah Baumbach, U.S., 2012); THE GATEKEEPERS (d. Dror Moreh, Israel, 2012);GINGER AND ROSA (d. Sally Potter, England, 2012); THE HUNT (d. Thomas Vinterberg, Denmark, 2012); HYDE PARK ON HUDSON (d. Roger Michell, U.S., 2012); THE ICEMAN (d. Ariel Vromen, U.S., 2012); LOVE, MARILYN (d. Liz Garbus, U.S., 2012); MIDNIGHT’S CHILDREN (d. Deepa Mehta, Canada-Sri Lanka, 2012); NO (Pablo Larraín, Chile, 2012); PARADISE: LOVE (d. Ulrich Seidl, Austria, 2012); PIAZZA FONTANA (d. Marco Tullio Giordana, Italy, 2012); A ROYAL AFFAIR (d. Nikolaj Arcel, Denmark, 2012); RUST & BONE (d. Jacques Audiard, France, 2012); THE SAPPHIRES (d. Wayne Blair, Australia, 2012); STORIES WE TELL (d. Sarah Polley, Canada, 2012); SUPERSTAR (d. Xavier Giannoli, France, 2012); WADJDA (d. Haifaa Al-Mansour, Saudi Arabia, 2012); WHAT IS THIS FILM CALLED LOVE? (d. Mark Cousins, Ireland-Mexico, 2012).

Previously announced film screened in The Backlot, venue: BREAKING THE FRAME (d. Marielle Nitoslawska, Canada, 2012); CARRIÈRE 250 METERS (d. Juan Carlos Rulfo, Mexico, 2012); CELLULOID MAN: A FILM ON P.K. NAIR (d. Shivendra Singh Dungarpur, India, 2012); CINEMA JENIN (d. Marcus Vetter, Germany-Israel-Occupied Palestinian Territory, 2012); FINAL CUT: LADIES AND GENTLEMAN (d. György Pálfi, Hungary, 2012); IN SEARCH OF EMAK BAKIA (d. Oskar Alegria, Spain, 2012); JONATHAN MILLER (d. David Thompson, U.K., 2012); JOURNAL DE FRANCE (d. Raymond Depardon and Claudine Nougaret, France, 2012); ME AND ME DAD (d. Katriné Boorman, U.K., 2012); MIKIS THEODORAKIS, COMPOSER (d. Klaus Salge and Asteris Kutulas, Germany, 2012); ON BORROWED TIME (d. David Bradbury, Australia, 2012); THE SHORT FILMS OF JEAN NEGULESCO.

Telluride Film Festival celebrated the 100^th birthday of its friend Chuck Jones (who died in 2002). Classic cartoons and his words of wisdom were included at screenings throughout the Festival. Animator-artist Jones, who received his first retrospective at Telluride in 1976, made regular visits to Telluride with his characters – The Road Runner, Wile E. Coyote, Pepe Le Pew, Speedy Gonzales, Marvin Martian, Michigan J. Frog plus those he directed including Bugs Bunny, Daffy Duck, Yosemite Sam and Elmer Fudd. Jones’s daughter, Linda Jones Clough, was present for a special animation conversation, which took place at the Chuck Jones Cinema.

39^th Telluride Film Festival was dedicated to Bingham Ray (1954-2012) and Jan Sharp (1946-2012).

The 39^th Telluride Film Festival program is available in its entirety at www.telluridefilmfestival.org.

Film stills available upon request. Email shannongmitchell@gmail.com for more information.

Festival photos available at www.wireimage.com.

40^th Anniversary of the Telluride Film Festival

Next year Telluride Film Festival will be celebrating its 40^th Anniversary, scheduled for August 29 – September 2, 2013.  To commemorate this special occasion an additional day has been added to the usual four-day Festival, making room for a five-day bounty of special programming and festivities. Passes will be available for purchase beginning in March 2013.  

About Telluride Film Festival

The prestigious Telluride Film Festival ranks among the world’s best film festivals and is an annual gathering for film industry insiders, cinema enthusiasts, filmmakers and critics. TFF is considered a major launching ground for the fall season’s most talked-about films. Co-founded in 1974 by Tom Luddy, James Card, and Bill and Stella Pence, Telluride Film Festival, presented in the beautiful mountain town of Telluride, Colorado, is a four-day international educational event celebrating the art of film. Telluride Film Festival’s long-standing commitment is to join filmmakers and film connoisseurs together to experience great cinema. The exciting schedule, kept secret until Opening Day, consists of over two dozen filmmakers presenting their newest works, special Guest Director programs, three major Tributes to guest artists, special events and remarkable treasures from the past. Telluride Film Festival is a 501 (c)(3) non-profit educational program. Festival headquarters are in Berkeley, CA.

CRITICAL CONSENSUS

I'm putting together a critical consensus from the weekend from a number of critics and bloggers of this weekend's films and will report the results later this week.  I've asked a number of people who spent the last few days in the Colorado Rockies to rank the films they saw and I'm going to collate the results and pass them on to you readers.  I'm pretty excited about this mini-project.  Stay tuned...I already have some excellent people who have agreed to participate.

MONDAY VIEWINGS

Still from Baumbach and Gerwig's "Frances Ha"

The Art Director and I caught Noah Baumbach and Greta Gerwig's collaboration" France Ha" Monday morning and found it engaging and well constructed.  Something of a  departure for Baumbach.  We enjoyed it a great deal...as parents of a 27 year old, it rang true.

Midday was a screening of  "The Attack" which was beyond sold out at The Nugget.  Personally, I felt it was a good not great piece of film making.  Frankly, I had a hard time believing that Israeli intell would be that far behind the story's protagonist.  Some good scenes and fine acting make it something that I'd recommend, but I'll bet I'm not as enthusiastic as others.

We closed out the fest with Ramin Bahrani's "At Any Price" which I found almost insufferable.  It's over-acted, telegraphically scripted and as subtle as a hammer.  I think there might be a good film in there somewhere, but this is not it.

REMEMBER TFF #40

Yes, it's me.  Already trying to figure out next year's films

I'm starting the reminders right now.  TFF #40 will be a 5 day affair next year.  Organizers plan to start on Thursday next year as they add an extra day to celebrate the festival's 40th anniversary.  Obviously, as you can tell from my moaning above, an extra day of paradise will be welcomed.

AND THANK YOU!

My gratitude to the Telluride Film Festival and in particular Muffy Deslaurier, Erica Gioga, Shannon Goodwin Mitchell and the phenomenal Julie Huntsinger...you make this special weekend even more special for this small town Oklahoma boy.

Thanks to all the readers out there who spend some time looking at these pages.  I am still honestly stunned that someone reads it besides me, my wife and my mom.  It's for you!

And speaking of family...a big thank you to The Art Director who puts up with this endeavor/obsession.  The woman has patience.
 

AND FINALLY...

Michael's Telluride Film Blog will continue for just a few more days as a daily blog...certainly until the critic's project is complete but there will be a couple of transitions coming soon.  First, as has been the custom, MTFB will transition to The Film Awards Clearinghouse as I track this year's Telluride slate of films through the awards season including Critic's kudos, the Guilds, the Golden Globes and ultimately the Oscars (TM).

Additionally, I'll go back to a twice a week posting schedule until and when awards season conditions warrant.  Starting Monday, Sept. 10th, I'll be going back to a Monday/Thursday posting schedule with special additional posts as news/conditions warrant.

More later...

Follow me on Twitter @Gort2.

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An Invitation/Last Call/Ten Bets/Ten More Bets/Maybe the Third Tribute?

Good Thursday...SHOW in ONE...Ride to the 'Ride leaves today at noon!


AN INVITATION (in case you've missed it)...

Larry and Mitzi Mallard of The River Club (550 Depot in Telluride) are hosting yours truly for The Second Annual (?) Guide to the 'Ride; Flow of the SHOW at 5:00pm tomorrow.  Come by.  Grab some refreshment.  We'll hob, and nob...talk a little film...should be fun!

LAST CALL

The 39th Telluride Film Festival should drop their official lineup around noon today.  That's about the time the CEO and I will be making tracks in a westerly direction.  I anticipate being able to post the lineup soon after it goes up even if  I'm on the road.  Nevertheless, it's been a great time this last few months trying to ferret out what we might see this coming weekend.  Below will be the last "Ten Bets" for this   SHOW (actually, more than ten, as you will see).

My thanks to all of you who have read this thing at any point...and also to those people who do this professionally who I shamelessly mine for nuggets that I then try to turn into some sort of map for the T-ride lineup.

As always a big thanks to Mitzi and Larry Mallard who really do make the whole thing possible.

Also thanks to the CEO...who really does put up with this obsession with a stunning amount of grace and good will.  I don't know that I'd be as patient should the shoe be on the other foot.

TEN BETS...

Monday's posted bets were:


1) Rust and Bone
2) Hyde Park on Hudson
3) Midnight's Children
4) The Central Park Five
5) Frances Ha
6) Ginger and Rosa
7) No
8) The Iceman
9) Bromberg's Chaplin
10) Amour

and the additional "Bets" were:


11) Argo
12) Rainy City Tales
13) Something in the Air
14) The Sapphires
15) Beyond the Hills
16) Song for Marion
17) Ernest and Celestine
18) To the Wonder (I know I'm crazy to put the Malick here...but some smart peeps think it's possible)
19) The Hunt
20) Hannah Arendt

And here's the FINAL "TEN BETS"

1) Rust and Bone
2) Hyde Park on Hudson
3) The Central Park Five
4) Frances Ha
5) Ginger and Rosa
6) No
7) Argo
8) Amour
9) Midnight's Children
10) The Hunt

TEN MORE (FINAL) BETS

11) At Any Price
12) On the Road
13) Passion
14) The Gatekeepers
15) The Sapphires
16) The Iceman
17) A Royal Affair
18) Ernest and Celestine
19) Bromberg's Chaplin Restoration
20) Populaire


Just outside: "Beyond the Hills" and "Something in the Air"

And here is what the original "Ten Bets" were from back in June:


1) Amour
2) Rust and Bone
3) Beyond the Hills
4) Hyde Park on Hudson
5) Song for Marion
6) No
7) Midnight's Children
8) The East
9) Something in the Air
10) On the Road




MAYBE THE THIRD TRIBUTE???

It has been reported that actors Marion Cotillard and Mads Mikkelsen are two Tributees this year leaving us to wonder who might be the third (assuming Telluride does what it has done in the past and honors three people)...then some news yesterday sent up my radar.

Often the Fest warms up the locals and early-arrivers (and their outdoor equipment) with films in the Elks Park on Wednesday and Thursday nights prior to the fest.  These film choices can act as clues to Tributees.  Last year "Michael Clayton" was a choice starring George Clooney and Tilda Swinton both of whom were feted at Tributes.  The year before saw the presentation of "Once Upon a Time in the West" Starring Claudia Cardinale...a Tributee.

Last night in Telluride they showed the new version of the James Bond flick "Casino Royale" starring Daniel Craig...wait, it's NOT Craig...and Mads Mikkelsen as the villain...now you see...

Tonight's scheduled film in the park...from 1979 "Rock and Roll High School"

Huh?

It starred Vincent Van Patten and P.J. Soles and Clint Howard (Ron's brother...can't see a tribute for any of these fine people) and Dick Miller who made something of a name as a guy in a ton of Roger Corman "B" flicks...wait...Roger Corman executive produced "R and R High"!

Eureka!


Now, I don't know that Corman's going to be in town (but there's a rumor...) and I don't know who the third tribute is...but...

King of the B's anyone?

"R and R High's" IMDb entry:
http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0079813/

And the one for the mighty Roger himself:
http://www.imdb.com/name/nm0000339/

And here's the link to the complete Telluride Inside post about the pre-fest films:
http://www.tellurideinside.com/2012/08/telluride-film-festival-2012-no-pass-dont-pass.html


See you in the "Ride!!!

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Invitation/Wells Says/Ten More That Could Play

Good Thursday to Everybody...8 Days...(7 til the bus leaves the Oklahoma Panhandle!)...

INVITATION

Please consider yourself officially invited to a brief "meet and greet and discussion of film" as The River Club kindly presents my "Second Annual(?) Guide to the 'Ride; Flow of the SHOW".  Refreshments, re-acquaintances, new acquaintances all at 5:00 pm at The River Club at 550 Depot in Telluride.  Should be fun.



WELLS SAYS...

I make no secret that I'm an amateur when it comes to this whole film blog universe and am not in the same league as a good number of other folks who really do play the game in a serious fashion.  One of those is Jeffrey Wells of Hollywood Elsewhere.  Mr. Wells will be attending Telluride and usually does and clearly he has sources...so when he drops some T-ride info...best pay attention.  And he did yesterday as I was kindly alerted by Film Blather's Eugene Novikov, Mr. Wells seems to nail down some of the Telluride lineup.  He says, cryptically, that we'll see Ben Affleck's "Argo", Roger Michell's "Hyde Park on Hudson", Noah Baumbach's "Frances Ha", Ken Burns "Central Park Five" and Jacques Audiard's "Rust and Bone".  He implies we're also likely to see Terrence Malick's "To the Wonder".  And he mentions Robert Lorenz's "Trouble with the Curve" in such a way that I can't tell if he's debunking the thought that it will be there...or implying that it will obviously be there.  Mr. Novikov thinks it's likely the former...

Check the whole entry here:
http://hollywood-elsewhere.com/2012/08/loose_talk_1.php

"Rust", "Hyde Park" and "Central Park Five" are on this week's "Ten Bets".  The rest have been or will be on this week's progressive "Thirty That Could Play" list that concludes with the final 10 today.  See below...

Frankly, the big surprise, to me anyway, would be the Malick...but it would be on my short list of films to catch at the festival if Wells is right.

Also, I have to admit that I had become pretty convinced that "Trouble with the Curve" was happening...but as I said, Wells sentence structure and emphasis make me uncertain as to what he's really saying...


TEN (OF THIRTY) THAT COULD PLAY

I've spent the week outlining 30 films in addition to this week's "Ten Bets" that could find their way onto screens in Telluride next week and assigning a percentage of chance to each one.  In all honesty, the Wells blurb yesterday has altered how I have written this final installment.  Here are 10 more that could play:

"The Impossible" trailer

"The Impossible" from Juan Antonio Bayona...the film focuses on the aftermath of the 2004 tsunami in southeast Asia and the true story of one family.  Ewna MacGregor and Naomi Watts star and attention to it has risen very rapidly over the last 2-3 weeks.  Chances-50%

"To the Wonder" from Terrence Malick.  The master has turned around a film just months after "The Tree of Life" which for Malick is historically unprecedented.  It's reportedly a love story set in part in Europe and Oklahoma...and shot to some extent here in the Sooner State.  To be truthful, I have been low balling any chance that it would be in Telluride...until the Wells post yesterday (and credit where due, InContention/HitFix's Kris Tapley said he thought it was a "possible"..so...Chances-60%.

"Yellow" from Nick Cassavettes...also shot partly in Oklahoma, I've thought it might be Telluride material from the first moment I heard about it...still think it could be.  Chances-50%

"Frances Ha" from Noah Baumbach.  Baumbach has played Telluride before and though I recently put this film on my radar, still thought its chances were small...again, the Wells post makes me reconsider.  Chances-60%.

Trailer for "Quartet"

"Quartet" from first time director Dustin Hoffman...mostly on my radar as it's from The Weinstein Company...Hoffman directing an adaptation of a Roland Harwood play...Chances-25%

"At Any Price" from Ramin Bahrani and starring Dennis Quaid, Zac Efron and Heather Graham in an agricultural family drama.  Decent buzz and Tapley's inclusion as a "probable" makes it one to consider.  Chances-40%.

"Passion" from Brian DePalma.  A lot of people think this is going to make the cut and play at Telluride next week so I have to take it seriously, but I have to say I've been dubious about its chances all summer.  Chances-40%

Trailer for "The Sessions"

"The Sessions" from Ben Lewin starring John Hawkes and Helen Hunt.  This Sundance hit is one of two films that really hit a nerve from that festival (the other being "Beasts of the Southern Wild" and "Beasts is in release).  I've been campaigning in my own tiny way for its inclusion at Telluride despite the fact that it preemed in Utah.  Its distributor, Fox Searchlight reportedly wanted it to play Telluride, so my hope is that sentiment (and a lean Fox Search cupboard) makes that a reality.  Chances-45%

"Great Expectations"  Mike Newell with the latest adaptation of the Dickens classic with Ralph Fiennes and Helena Bonham Carter.  Tapley says its a "maybe".  I'm not that optimistic.  Chances-30%

"Ernest and Celestine"  It's French...it's animated...I'll bet it plays.  Chances-55%
 

And beyond these 40 films there are still others that could (and will) play...for example: "The Company You Keep", "A Late Quartet", "Arthur Newman", "Dangerous Liaisons", "Caesar Must Die" (look out for this one), "Everybody Has a Plan", "The Gatekeepers" (also this), "In the Fog", "Laurence Anyways", "Love is All You Need", "Much Ado About Nothing", "The Place Beyond the Pines", "Populaire", "Post Tenebras Lux", "Room 237", "Seven Psychopaths" and "The We and the I".

THE SESSIONS

Hollywood News makes noise about the Sundance hit and my wish list #2 film for Telluride as it preps to go to Toronto. 
http://www.hollywoodnews.com/2012/08/22/the-sessions-gets-an-official-poster-toronto-2012/


BEYOND THE HILLS

Christian Munigu's follow up to his Cannes Palme D'or winning "4 Months, 3 Weeks, 2 Days" is sitting at #10 on this week's "Ten Bets".  The writer/director recently talked to Anne Thompson of Thompson on Hollywood about the Telluride possible film:

http://blogs.indiewire.com/thompsononhollywood/cannes-interview-cristian-mungiu-talks-beyond-the-hills

More later...

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Best of the Week/Master Shows/New at SPC/Pictures...Many

Good Saturday from L.A.

BEST OF THE WEEK





INVITATION

Another reminder to join me at The River Club on Friday, Aug. 31 at 5:00PM for the Second Annual "Guide to the Ride; Flow of the SHOW".  Last year was a lot of fun and we're going to try our level best to have a great time again this year.  So, come, enjoy.  We may have a special guest or two...we're trying anyway.


TEN BETS


This week's "Ten Bets" on Monday were:



1) Amour
2) Rust and Bone
3) Midnight's Children
4) On the Road
5) Beyond the Hills
6) The Central Park Five
7) Bromberg's Chaplin
8) Hyde Park on Hudson
9) The Reluctant Fundamentalist
10) Hannah Arendt

Still solidly in the mix: "No", Something in the Air", "Song for Marion".  This past week saw the eruption of rumor that "Cloud Atlas" and "The Master" are still possibilities for Telluride.

GUESSING TELLURIDE

I do this "guessing" Telluride thing for about 6 months of the year and then do awards season in the context of those films that do play Telluride the other 6 months of the year.  But now, with only a month left to some of the serious peeps in the business of film blogging are casting their   Kris Tapley of HitFix/InContention is among the very best and he has his Telluride prognostication post (along with Oscar spec).  You can find it here:

http://www.hitfix.com/in-contention/fall-fests-set-to-fire-the-oscar-starting-gun

Highlights of his prognostications include his feel that "Rust and Bone" "No" and "Amour" all have a good shot..as have I.

He also have a vibe for "The Silver Linings Playbook"...I agree and Tapley suggests Dustin Hoffman's directorial debut "Quartet" which would thrill me...I'd love nothing more than to see Hoffman on Colorado Ave.  But I have reservations that it's likely to occur.

Tapley also goes with "Midnight's Children" and Matteo Garrone's "Reality" as likely to show in addition to "Hyde Park on Hudson".  I'm pretty high on MC and "Hyde Park" being there, less so about "Reality".

And finally, Tapley has one big surprise guess, and he admits it really is just a hunch...that Robert Lorenz's "Trouble with the Curve" appears along with Mr. Eastwood.  That would be incredible!

MASTER DISASTER

It was a roller coaster day yesterday.  I'm on the road...literally driving from Flagstaff, AZ. to San Diego, CA. yesterday...while catching the occasional tweet at gas stops and at lunch...

And so as the day evolved, I got the news that "The Master" WILL play Venice after all...despite not being announced last week and even reported denials that it would...

The Playlist: http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/paul-thomas-andersons-the-master-will-play-the-venice-film-festival-after-all-20120730

As you know, I have often pointed out that Venice and Telluride have little overlap...so  this probably means the death knell for its Telluride chances...which had begun to look somewhat promising in light of the lack of the film on Venice's list nor Toronto's.

Then late yesterday the word that IT WILL PLAY TORONTO TOO!

The Wrap: http://www.thewrap.com/movies/column-post/master-added-toronto-film-festival-lineup-49936

Now virtually every pundit that plays this game has agreed that Telluride is a non-starter...and they're very likely right...but...the addition of Toronto dates actually gives me a bit of hope...what few films that do make the Venice to Telluride run generally play Toronto as well...so maybe...

And then there has been a good deal of discussion that part of the Venice/Toronto sluggishness in announcing has been the result of Anderson's desire to present it in the 70mm format he shot it in.  Some commenters think that, too, could complicate it's possibility of Telluride.  But The Playlist points out (and an MTFB reader confirms) that Telluride can actually and has shown 70mm in the past...so...

Finally, there's also a lot of talk about the impossibility of dates and doubt about simultaneous play dates and locations of Anderson, Phoenix, Hoffman etc.  I'm not all that sure that is really much of an impediment.  If everyone wants it to happen in all three locales, I'm pretty sure that all involved could find a way to make it happen.  And I really do think Harvey Weinstein likes to have his big pony in the San Juans...

I'm saying, yes, "The Master" is probably not going to play T-ride...but all hope is NOT lost.

NO?

Gael Garcia Bernal in Pablo Larrain's "No"

I still have a strong feeling that Pablo Larrain's "No" which played to very good review out of competition in Cannes last May will turn up in Telluride.  This despite the fact that it was once a "Ten Bets" film but has slipped to somewhere in the 11-20 spots.

That being said, I have included a post that popped up in the last 48 hours concerning the film which stars Gael Garcia Bernal.  Here it is...

From The Washington Post:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/the_americas/actor-gael-garcia-bernal-says-no-film-taught-him-about-chiles-pain-during-dictatorship/2012/07/30/gJQATEKkLX_story.html


"No's" IMDb entry: http://www.imdb.com/title/tt2059255/

VIEW TO A "KILLING"

We got a trailer yesterday for Andrew Dominik's "Killing Them Softly" starring Brad Pitt.  "KTS" has some Telluride potential as it has checked off a couple of Telluride "boxes" in that it played Cannes and it is distributed by The Weinstein Company.  Those two factors are pro-Telluride appearance, however the complete uncertainty about how TWC  and Telluride are playing together this year (TWC has so many possible players for awards season: "The Master", "Django", ""Silver Linings", "Quartet"...there are others) means that I put KTS's chances of a T-ride appearance at 20%.

Nevertheless, here's the trailer:

For more KTS information check out these posts:

The Playlist:

http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/watch-first-trailer-for-andrew-dominiks-killing-them-softly-starring-brad-pitt-20120801

FirstShowing.net:

http://www.firstshowing.net/2012/brad-pitt-james-gandolfini-in-dominiks-killing-them-softly-trailer/

Rope of Silicon:

http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/watch-killing-them-softly-trailer/

"Killing Them Softly's" IMDb entry: http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1764234/

SING FOR MARION LATER

Meanwhile, a film I thought was almost dead certain to play Telluride now may be doubtful for 2012 altogether.  I thought Paul Andrew Williams' "Song for Marion" seemed almost too certain to play T-ride.  Again, it's a TWC distributed film and features Terrence Stamp and Vanessa Redgrave.  I had even thought that a Stamp or Redgrave Tribute was a very real possibility.  "Song" has even appeared on the "Ten Bets" list this summer, albeit not lately because maybe I have begun to get a bit suspicious too about the lack of "noise" concerning the film..  Much like KTS above, this doesn't absolutely preclude its inclusion but...

The Playlist is raining all over that notion and any notion that we'll see the film this year at all.

Check their post:

http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/gemma-arterton-conducts-in-new-image-from-song-for-marion-20120801

"Song's" IMDb entry: http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1047011/

From a "Ten Bets" film to what I now think is only a 30% chance it's going to appear at Telluride.



SOMETHING IN THE AIR

"Something in the Air"

Olivier Assassyas's film finally has some new images via The Playlist.  The film has been announced for Venice but is not on Toronto's list of film as yet.

I still have had it listed high on my "Ten Bets" list though it has moved off the "Bets" in the last two weeks as it has been relatively quiet in terms of buzz about it.  Bottom line is that I still think it's a likely choice to make it to Telluride...in the 65% range.

Nevertheless, here's the link to the new pics and story from The Playlist:
http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/first-look-at-olivier-assayas-70s-coming-of-age-drama-something-in-the-air-20120802#

"Something's" IMDb entry:
http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1846472/


CENTRAL PARK FIVE

Ken Burns and Company/"The Central Park Five"

Ken Burns and family are credited with this new documentary (Ken and his daughter and son-in-law) and I'd be shocked if it's not in T-ride.  It currently sits at #6 on this week's "Ten Bets".  The film has also been announced as a part of Toronto's doc section...so expect the Burns clan in Colorado in 4 weeks and the Toronto the week after. Check out this Ioncinema rundown of the TIFF Doc selections...and also add into your perusal of that story that 2-4 of those choices will probably join "The Central Park Five" in Telluride:

http://www.ioncinema.com/news/film-festivals/2012-tiff-docs-ken-burns-julien-temple-marina-zenovich-and-alex-gibney-load-up-doc-section

CP5's IMDb entry:
http://www.imdb.com/title/tt2380247/


MASTER SHOWS

Late last night Paul Thomas Anderson screened "The Master" in Santa Monica, CA. just down the hill from where I am...seriously!

Could have been there?  The film was shown as a "secret screening" after a presentation of Stanley Kubrick's "The Shining".  HitFix/InContention's Kris Tapley with the late night details:

http://www.hitfix.com/in-contention/first-public-screening-of-paul-thomas-andersons-the-master-happening-right-now-in-santa-monica

Also, a smattering of ecstatic reactions have been tweeted and such and Kris Tapley and Jeffrey Wells both had contacts on the inside that have commented on the film.  You an find those reactions collected by the Paul Thomas Anderson fan site Cigarettes and Red Vines here: http://cigsandredvines.blogspot.com/2012/08/the-master-premieres-secretly-in-la.html

PS...Tapley per this post still believes that Telluride is a possibility...


NEW AT SPC


Sony Pictures Classics has added new films to their slate this week...a documentary and a hot new prospect making both of them possible Telluride contenders.  The Wrap has both stories.

The "hot" prospect is Raman Bahrani's "At Any Price" starring Dennis Quaid and Zac Efron.

http://www.thewrap.com/deal-central/column-post/sony-pictures-classics-acquires-zac-efron-dennis-quaid-film-any-price-50751


"At Any Price's" IMDb entry: http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1937449/

The other is the Israeli documentary "The Gatekeepers":
http://www.thewrap.com/movies/article/sony-pictures-classics-nabs-israeli-secret-service-documentary-gatekeepers-49851

That IMDb entry is here: http://www.imdb.com/title/tt2309788/


MANY PICTURES

If you're looking for stills for fall releases you might want to look at this post from Rope of Silicon.  Over 150 stills from a wide variety of films including:

"Cloud Atlas"
"The Silver Linings Playlist"
"The Master"
"Great Expectations"
"Seven Psychopaths"
"Argo"
:The Company You Keep"
"Quartet"
"The Impossible"
"End of Watch"
"Frances Ha"
"The Reluctant Fundamentalist"


There are many:
http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/over-150-new-pictures-from-great-expectations-the-master-total-recall-looper-and-more/


Have a great weekend everyone!

More later (Monday from San Francisco!)...


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