Updated Oscar Predictions: Best Actress and Actor / Can You Ever Forgive Me? Emerges / Destroyer Has a Trailer / The Favourite Categorized

Good Thursday Film Friends...


UPDATED OSCAR PREDICTIONS: BEST ACTRESS AND BEST ACTOR

Here are my latest thoughts for the Lead Acting categories.  Each individual's position in my last predictions is in parentheses.  Those from TFF #45 films are Bold.


BEST ACTRESS

1) Glenn Close/The Wife (1)
2) Lady Gaga/A Star Is Born (2)
3) Melissa McCarthy/Can You Ever Forgive Me? (3)
4) Olivia Colman/The Favourite (4)
5) Viola Davis/Widows (-)

Others: Yalitza Aparicio/Roma, Julia Roberts/Ben Is Back, Toni Collette/Hereditary, Nicole Kidman/Destroyer


BEST ACTOR

1) Bradley Cooper/A Star Is Born (1)
2) Viggo Mortensen/Green Book (2)
3) Ryan Gosling/First Man (3)
4) Christian Bale/Vice (-)
5) Lucas Hedges/Boy Erased (4)

Others: Hugh Jackman/The Front Runner, Rami Malek/Bohemian Rhapsody, Ethan Hawke/First Reformed***, Lucas Hedges/Ben Is Back, John David Washington/BlacKkKlansman

***Played TFF #44

And, by the by, you might look for the a new Gurus of Gold at Movie City News tomorrow.  It will be my second contribution as a "Guru".


CAN YOU EVER FORGIVE ME? EMERGES

The fantastic Can You Ever Forgive Me? gets its U.S. release tomorrow.  The film was well received at TFF #45 finishing as the #5 film in The Composite Ratings for MTFB.  It was #5 among the Pros and #8 in The People's Telluride.

With the film's release, as you'd expect, has been a focus in media circles this week on it and its star Melissa McCarthy.

I have linked a couple of the profiles that have her appeared about her this week from:

The Hollywood Reporter

Indiewire

I am currently predicting McCarthy to earn her second Oscar nomination for her work in the film as real life forger Lee Daniels.  I also think the film will be nominated for Best Picture, Best Adapted Screenplay and Richard E. Grant getting a nomination for Best Supporting Actor.

Here's the trailer for it from YouTube:

DESTROYER HAS A TRAILER

Annapurna Pictures has released a trailer for Karyn Kusama's gritty detective drama Destroyer starring a nearly unrecognizable Nicole Kidman who is likely to be a part of the Best Actress conversation for the role.

Here's the trailer from YouTube:

Destroyer is currently slated to open domestically on Dec. 25th.

THE FAVOURITE CATEGORIZED

 After a good deal of consternation and speculation Scott Feinberg of The Hollywood Reporter tells us this week that the acting categorization for Awards consideration for the three ladies of Yorgos Lanthimos' The Favourite have been determined.

Feinberg reports that Olivia Colman, who plays England's Queen Anne in the film, will be the lone consideration for the Lead Actress category with both Emma Stone and Rachel Weisz competing in the Best Supporting Actress Category.

Feinberg also reports on a number of other categorization decisions that have been made as we get ready to swing into the full awards season melee.

Feinberg's article can be found here.


That's MTFB for this Thursday.  I'll have another post on Monday in which I will update Oscar predictions for the supporting acting categories.  And don't forget to take a peek at Movie City News and the new Gurus of Gold post tomorrow.


EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com

TWITTER @Gort2 (and follow me there as well)

FACEBOOK Message me on FB MTFB's Facebook Page

COMMENT TO THE BLOG

The FAC Assesses Support / Shortlists / Berlin 2017 Begins Revealing

Good Monday everyone and welcome to Michael's Telluride Film Blog and The Film Awards Clearinghouse.  I hope everyone enjoyed and survived their weekend.

THE FAC ASSESSES SUPPORT

Supporting Acting categories that is.  The last FAC look at the Supporting races was a month ago (Nov. 17) and a lot has changed since then on the men's side.  The women's side is remarkably stable. Let's take a look at the latest assessment...

I have used the publicly available Oscar predictions from the following pundits:

Erik Anderson/Awards Watch
Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit
Greg Ellwood/The Playlist-Awards Campaign
Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter
Joey Magidson/Hollywood News
Nathaniel Rogers/Film Experience
Sasha Stone/Awards Daily
Kristopher Tapley/Variety-InContention
Anne Thompson/Indiewire

TFF #43 films are in Bold.  The person's previous position follows its title in parentheses.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1) Viola Davis/Fences (1)
2) Michelle Williams/Manchester by the Sea (3)
3) Naomie Harris/Moonlight (2)
4) Nicole Kidman/Lion (4)
5) Octavia Spencer/Hidden Figures (6)

6) Greta Gerwig/20th Century Women (5)
7) Janelle Monae/Hidden Figures (8)
8) Molly Shannon/Other People (10)
9) Helen Mirren/Eye in the Sky (7)
10) Felicity Jones/A Monster Calls (9)

Hot: Shannon
Not: Mirren
On the Cusp: Lily Gladstone/Certain Women
Comment:  As I wrote above, a very stable category over the past month with no additions pr deletions from the top ten and only minor movement among them.  Viola Davis is clearly the prohibitive favorite.  It increasingly seems that the only person with a chance to pull the upset is Michelle Williams who has taken a number of critic's prizes in the category.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1) Mahershala Ali/Moonlight (1)
2) Jeff Bridges/Hell or High Water (2)
3) Dev Patel/Lion (3)
4) Hugh Grant/Florence Foster Jenkins (4)
5) Lucas Hedges/Manchester by the Sea (6)

6) Ben Foster/Hell or High Water (NR)
7) Michael Shannon/Nocturnal Animals (7)
8) Kevin Costner/Hidden Figures (NR)
9) Issei Ogata/Silence (NR)
10) Aaron Eckhart/Bleed for This (8)

Hot: Foster, Costner and Ogata who jump into the top ten for the first time this season.
Not: Eckhart, and Stephen Henderson, Liam Neeson and Peter Saarsgard who dropped out of the top ten over the past month.
On the Cusp; Ralph Fiennes/A Bigger Splash
Comment: Ali has become a juggernaut of sorts as he has won critic's prize after critic's prize for his work in Moonlight.  He's not as prohibitive a favorite as Davis is among the women but he's getting there.

Thursday...a look at the screenplay categories and we'll measure the effect of Moonlight and Loving being moved from the Original to the Adapted category.


SHORTLISTS



The Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences narrowed a number of categories this past week and those decisions had immediate ramifications for films that played at Telluride in September.

For example, the Foreign Language field was pared down to nine films:

Australia: Tanna
Canada: It's Only the End of the World
Denmark: Land of Mine
Germany: Toni Erdmann
Iran: The Salesman
Norway: The King's Choice
Russia: Paradise
Sweden: A Man Called Ove
Switzerland: My Life as a Zucchini

The field includes only one T-ride title-and possibly the ultimate favorite for the trophy-Toni Erdmann.  Left off were both Neruda and Fire at Sea which played TFF #43 and were thought to be serious players for a FLF Oscar nomination.  The final five nominees will be announced Jan. 24th.

Coverage of the shortlist announcement is here from:

Awards Daily

Gold Derby

Indiewire

Deadline

Awards Watch

Also, The Academy pared down the list of films still eligible for the Visual Effects nomination and Telluride still has a player in that race as Denis Villenueve's Arrival was named one of the ten films still under consideration.  Having a Telluride film in contention for the Visual Effects Oscar is a rare but not unheard of occurrence (Gravity was nominated and won in 2013).

Entertainment Weekly has the story which includes all of the films still alive in addition to Arrival.

Additionally, The Oscar Documentary shortlist was announced last week.  Among the 15 films making the shortlist were  a number that screened at TFF #43.  The Eagle Huntress, The Ivory Game and Fire at Sea made the list that will be whittled to five films on Jan. 24th.

The New York Times  has coverage here of the announcement.


BERLIN 2017 BEGINS REVEALING

We heard this week a few of the titles that will debut at the Berlin International Film Festival which runs Feb. 9-19, 2017.

Here's why that matters to readers of this space.  You can make a safe bet that a couple of Berlin titles make their way to Telluride in nine months.  Last year, for example, Mia Hansen-Love's Things to Come and Gianfranco's Fire at Sea both premiered at Berlin and then made the trip to the San Juans. In 2015 Taxi and 45 Years did the same thing.  So, we can cast a glance at the few announced films from this week and pick out some films that make the most sense for a Telluride play and there are a few that have some characteristics (i.e. directors that have had films play TFF in the past) that make them prime suspects:

The Party/Sally Potter (TFF 2012- Ginger and Rosa)
Spoor/Angnieska Holland (TFF 2013-Burning Bush, TFF 2011-In Darkness)
The Other Side of Hope/Aki Kaurismaki (TFF 2011-Le Havre)
A Fantastic Woman/Sebastian Lelio (TFF 2013-Gloria)

Coverage of the Berlin reveals is here from:

Variety

The Playlist

The Film Stage


That's Monday's post.  Come back for more on Thursday.


EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com

TWITTER @Gort2 (and follow me there as well)

FACEBOOK Message me on FB MTFB's Facebook Page

COMMENT to the blog.