Obsessing about the Telluride Film Festival and the film awards season since 2008!
"The best blog out there for predicting what will be going to Telluride."-Matt Neglia, Next Best Picture
"The Nostradamus of Telluride"
-Tim Appelo, Movies for Grownups
"But it's our job." - Anne Thompson, Indiewire
With less than ten days before Oscar winners are revealed and with only a few days left for ballots to get in (they're due on Feb. 25th), directing nominee Alexander Payne is featured in this lengthy piece from Fade In Online by F.X. Feeney:
Animating legend and Oscar nominee Hayao Miyazaki talked to Anne Thompson about his currently nominated "The Wind Rises" and his announced retirement recently.
If you saw the same screening in Telluride that I did you saw the Oscar nominated animated short (and probable favorite to win that statue) "Get a Horse" featuring Disney legend Mickey Mouse. Steve Pond from The Wrap talks to Lauren McMullan about the short film and the re-emergence of the classic character:
I've been expecting this, especially after this past year's lineup at Telluride. Yesterday, Thompson on Hollywood reported that the Toronto Film Festival will follow a new policy concerning its decisions about which films it will choose for it's opening and closing night slots as well as which films it chooses to feature the first few days of its fest.
The new policy is a direct response to Telluride's programming success over recent years. The Thompson post is here:
Meanwhile, Telluride's Julie Huntsinger responded in an article from Variety saying, basically, "we're going to continue to do what we've always done. Here's the link to that Variety post:
It'll be interesting to see how this pans out over the next 7 months and what effect it will have on which films end up where...including Venice.
OSCAR NOMINATION REVOKED
The Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences has rescinded the Best Original Song nomination for "Alone, Yet Not Alone". The song had been at the center of a controversy from the moment of its nomination announcement two weeks ago due to some allegedly shady moves to secure its spot as one of the five nominees.
Is "Gravity" the film to beat for Best Picture now? Will there be a Best Pic/Best Director split like last year? Sasha Stone of Awards Daily tackles the Oscars in her 57th Oscar Podcast here:
I'm continuing to update Oscar categories as we get closer and closer to nomination morning (Jan. 16-one week away!), Today, I'm updating the Screenplay categories, Cinematography, Film Editing and Production Design.
THE FILM AWARDS CLEARINGHOUSE VOL. 5A
I use the publicly posted predictions of these Oscar experts:
Sasha Stone/Awards Daily
Kris Tapley/HitFix-InContention
Anne Thompson/Thompson on Hollywood
Peter Knegt/IndieWire
Alex Carlson/Film Misery
Nathaniel Rogers/Film Experience
Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter
Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit
Brad Brevet/Rope of Silicon
The films position on the last FAC is in parenthesis. Telluride #40 films areBold.
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
1) 12 Years a Slave (1)
2) Captain Phillips (2)
3) Philomena (4)
4) Before Midnight (5)
5) The Wolf of Wall Street (3)
6) August: Osage County (6)
7) Short Term 12 (8)
8) Blue is the Warmest Color (7)
9) The Spectacular Now (New)
10) The Book Thief (Semi-New)
Dropping Out: "Lone Survivor" and "Labor Day".
Comment: The top six listed seem to be the serious players with "Wolf" dropping a bit, perhaps due to the conversation about whether the film glorifies/endorses the kind of behavior it depicts. "August" still seems to be on the outside, but just barely and "Short Term 12" has a legit shot to make the field as a sleeper.
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
1) American Hustle (3)
2) Nebraska (2)
3) Her (4)
4) Inside Llewyn Davis (1)
5) Blue Jasmine (5)
6) Gravity (7)
7) Enough Said (9)
8) Dallas Buyers Club (8)
9) Fruitvale Station (New)
10) Lee Daniel's The Butler (10)
Dropping Out: "Saving Mr. Banks"
Comment: "Llewyn" takes a pretty big fall owing almost certainly to the lack of a WGA nomination last week. This category is very tight with only the top three listed above as very likely Oscar nominees.
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
1) Gravity (1)
2) 12 Years a Slave (2-TIE)
2) Inside Llewyn Davis (2-TIE)
4) Prisoners (4)
5) Nebraska (6)
6) Captain Phillips (5)
7) Rush (7)
8) Her (8)
9) The Grandmaster (New)
10) All is Lost (9)
Comment: Every few years some category appears to have the possibility of a complete Telluride slate of nominees. This years it's Cinematography which, if these numbers don't lie, would happen next week. Realistically, almost any of the top ten could end up with a nomination.
BEST FILM EDITING
1) Gravity (1)
2) 12 Years a Slave (2)
3) Captain Phillips (3)
4) American Hustle (4)
5) Rush (5)
6) The Wolf of Wall Street (6)
7) Inside Llewyn Davis (8)
8) All is Lost (7)
9) Her (9)
10) Lone Survivor (New)
Dropping Out: "Nebraska"
Comment: A very competitive category as well through the first six places with both "Llewyn " and "Lost" also realistic possibilities to sneak into a nomination.
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
1) 12 Years a Slave (1)
2) The Great Gatsby (2)
3) Saving Mr. Banks (3)
4) The Hobbit: Smaug (4)
5) Inside Llewyn Davis (5)
6) Gravity (6)
7) Her (7)
8) American Hustle (8)
9) The Invisible Woman (9)
10) Oz The Great and Powerful (10)
Comment: That's right, a category with absolutely no movement in the past couple of weeks. This category seems ultra-competitive through the top seven spots and I have a feeling the #8 "American Hustle" might sneak in.
Overall, in these five categories Telluride #40 would have 12 additional nominations (if the metric is 100% accurate) and another 7 possibilities.
Beginning Monday I will post Oscar category updates each day leading up to Oscar Nomination announcement morning (Thursday). Monday and Tuesday I'll update the remaining "under the line categories. On Monday: The Shorts: Animated, Documentary, Live Action as well as Sound Mixing, Sound Editing, Costumes and Makeup/Hair. On Tuesday: Original Song, Original Score, Animated Feature, Documentary Feature, Foreign Language Film and Visual Effects.
THE OTHER METRIC
A week ago, I added another metric as a way of looking at the Best Picture race. It utilized the results from Golden Globe nominations, The Screen Actors Guild, The American Film Institute, The Los Angeles Critics, The New York Film Critics Circle and The National Board of Review. In the last week, three other guilds (Producers, Directors and Writers) have announced as well as The National Society of Film Critics and The British Association of Film and Television Arts. That's a total of 10 organizational announcements that I have compiled. If we believe that success among these organizations is indicative of Oscar nomination potential then here's what they tell us (if they tell us anything).
7 films get nominated for Best Picture
Leading the way is "American Hustle" named by nine of these groups (Golden Globes, SAG, AFI, NYFCC, DGA, PGA, WGA, NSFC and BAFTA).
Next is "12 Years a Slave" named eight times (Golden Globes, SAG, AFI, NBR, DGA, PGA, NSFC, BAFTA)
Two films were named seven times:
"Gravity" (Golden Globes, AFI, LAFCA, NBR, DGA, PGA, BAFTA)
"Her" (Golden Globes, AFI, LAFCA, NBR, PGA, WGA, NSFC)
Two films have six mentions:
"Captain Phillips" (Golden Globes, AFI, DGA, PGA, WGA, BAFTA)
"The Wolf of Wall Street" (Golden Globes, AFI, NBR, DGA, PGA, WGA)
"Nebraska" has five mentions (Golden Globes, AFI, NBR, PGA, WGA)
"Inside Llewyn Davis" has four mentions (Golden Globes, AFI, NBR, NSFC)
So this metric suggests that these are the eight most likely Best Picture nominees a week from today.
Films with three mentions and potential spoilers/additions:
It will be interesting to see how this metric plays out next week.
OSCAR'S LOOK FOR 2014
Here's the official poster for this year's Oscars featuring host Ellen Degeneres. I have also links the HitFix story that goes with the poster/announcement:
The Playlist posted a story this week with new images and television spots for Jason Reitman's "Labor Day". According to my latest FAC, "Labor Day" has the smallest of shots at two Oscar nominations next week: Best Actress for Kate Winslet and Best Adapted Screenplay. Here's the story from The Playlist:
THE FAC AND THE GOLD DERBY ( AND A LITTLE BIT FROM THE GURUS OF GOLD)
Here’s a comparative
look at where the major Oscar categories are between The Film Awards
Clearinghouse and The Gold Derby and in the case of Best Picture and Director,
where they are ranked by Movie City News’ Gurus of Gold.
BEST PICTURE
FILM/FAC RANK/GOLD DERBY/GURUS OF GOLD
12 Years a Slave (1)
(1) (1)
Gravity (2)
(2) (2)
Capt. Phillips (3) (4) (3)
Saving Mr. Banks (4) (5) (4)
American Hustle (5) (3) (6)
Nebraska (6) (9) (5)
Inside Llewyn Davis (7) (8) (7)
The Wolf of Wall St. (8) (6) (9)
LD’s The Butler (9) (7) (8)
All is Lost (10) (15) (11)
Her (11) (13) (10)
August: Osage (12) (11) (13)
Blue Jasmine (13) (12) (12)
Dallas Buyers Club (14) (13) (16)
Fruitvale Station (15) (10) (15)
BEST DIRECTION
Cuaron/Gravity (1) (2) (1)
McQueen/12 Years (2) (1) (2)
Greengrass/Phillips (3) (4) (3)
Russell/Hustle (4) (3) (4)
Coens/Llewyn Davis (5) (7) (6)
Payne/Nebraska (6) (6) (5)
Hancock/Mr. Banks (7) (9) (10)
Scorsese/Wolf (8) (5) (8)
Chandor/Lost (9) (8) (9)
Jonze/Her (10) (11) (7)
BEST ACTOR
Ejiofor/12 Years (1) (1)
Redford/Lost (2) (2)
McConnaughey/DBC (3) (3)
Hanks/Phillips (4) (4)
Dern/Nebraska (5) (5)
Whitaker/Butler (6) (6)
Bale/Hustle (7) (11)
DiCaprio/Wolf (8) (10)
Isaac/Llewyn Davis (9) (12)
Jordan/Fruitvale (10) (7)
Gold Derby also has Phoenix and Elba in its Top Ten
BEST ACTRESS
Blanchett/Jasmine (1) (1)
Bullock/Gravity (2) (2)
Streep/August Osage (3) (5)
Thompson/Banks (4) (4)
Dench/Philomena (5) (3)
Adams/Hustle (6) (7)
Excharopolous/Blue (7) (6)
Delpy/Midnight (8) (12)
Winslet/Labor Day (9) (11)
Bejo/Past (10) (10)
Gold Derby also has Larson and Louis-Dreyfuss in its Top Ten.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Fassbender/12 Years (1) (2)
Leto/DBC (2) (1)
Hanks/Banks (3) (3)
Addi/Phillips (4) (4)
Bruhl/Rush (5) (5)
Gandolfini/Enough (6) (6)
B. Cooper/Hustle (7) (10)
Hill/Wolf (8) (14)
Goodman/Llewyn (9) (7)
Renner/Hustle (10) (13)
Gold Derby has Oyelowo and McConnaughey in its Top Ten.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Nyong’o/12 Years (1) (1)
WinfreyButler (2) (2)
Squibb/Nebraska (3) (4)
Roberts/August (4) (5)
Lawrence/Hustle (5) (7)
Martindale/August (6) (6)
Spencer/Fruitvale (7) (3)
Hawkins/Jasmine (8) (8)
Mulligan/Llewyn (9) (18)
Paulson/12 Years (10) (9)
Gold Derby also has Johansson in its Top Ten.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
12 Years (1) (1)
Capt. Phillips (2) (5)
Before Midnight (3) (2)
August: Osage (4) (4)
Philomena (5) (7)
Wolf of Wall St. (6) (3)
Blue is Warmest (7) (10)
Labor Day (8) (11)
Short Term 12 (9) (NR)
Book Thief (10) (8)
Gold Derby has Walter Mitty and Lone Survivor in its Top
Ten.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Blue Jasmine (1) (2)
Inside Llewyn Davis (2) (3)
Nebraska (3) (4)
American Hustle (4) (1)
Her (5) (7)
Saving Mr. Banks (6) (8)
Gravity (7) (5)
Fruitvale Station (8) (6)
The Butler (9) (13)
Enough Said (10) (9)
Gold Derby has
Dallas Buyers Club in its Top Ten.
PAYNE AND DERN
Alexander Payne told us in Telluride that there was a color version of "Nebraska". Now he's telling The Dissolve the same thing and explaining why it exists:
The Playlist posted a story that includes a new clip from the Coen Brothers' film as well as a trailer for the Showtime presentation of the concert "Another Day Another Time". The concert will air on Showtime on Dec. 13. Here's the post:
There were a couple of key stories this week about William H. Macy's Rudderless this week. The film, written by Oklahomans (friend of the blog) Casey Twenter and Jeff Robison and filmed in Oklahoma, was highlighted by a story about the first look at stills from the film and was also tipped as a hot prospect for The Sundance Film Festival by IndieWire. Here are the links to those stories:
HitFix/InContention's Kristopher Tapley and Thompson on Hollywood's Anne Thompson have posted their latest version of Oscar Talk. Links to it on either of their sites are here:
I have loaded up on the "Llewyn Davis" soundtrack this week as the 6 copies of the vinyl arrived as did the CD which I have ripped to the various digital platforms I have. I sort of like the soundtrack...a lot!
Now, on with this week's Telluride Film Festival news items...
LABOR DATE
Jason Reitman's "Labor Day" will get an Oscar qualifying run the lat week of December but won't open wide until January 2014. The Wrap (with apologies to the earlier spelling error and thanks to Chris Schiller who caught it...color me embarrassed), The Playlist and The Hollywood Reporter filed these stories:
The Bruce Dern/Nebraska celebration continued this past week with a screening of the Alexander Payne film at the AFI Fest. Dern talked to a bunch of outlets including The Hollywood Reporter, The Playlist and The Dissolve:
Only six days left until Oscar season is over and if you're an observer who doesn't have a horse in the race, it has been a fascinating ride these past 5 1/2 months since the Telluride Film Festival's 39th edition came to an end.
Now we're to the end game. Consequently, MTFB/FAC will post every day this week and include a final look at Oscar predictions next Sunday morning before the Oscar broadcast. It's going to be a bumpy week.
Here's a start, a look at the Big 8 categories and where they stand after the number crunching using data from the published predictions of the following:
Sasha Stone/Awards Daily
Scott Feinberg/The Feinberg Forecast-The Hollywood Reporter
Kristopher Tapley/InContention-HitFix
Anne Thompson/Thompson on Hollywood-IndieWire
Peter Knegt/IndieWire
Brad Brevet/Rope of Silicon
Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit
Alex Carlson/Film Misery
Telluride #39 films are indicated in Bold.
+BEST PICTURE
1) Argo (1)
2) Lincoln (2)
3) Silver Linings Playbook (3)
4) Life of Pi (4) 5) Amour (6)
6) Zero Dark Thirty (7)
7) Les Miserables (5)
8) Beasts of the Southern Wild (8)
9) Django Unchained (9)
Comment: The "Argo" trend is all but complete sweeping the predictors. Looks like its Ben's to lose at this point. And here's kind of an amazing note..."Amour" has steadily moved up the chart in the estimation of the prognosticators I check on to sit at #5. Almost in a position for a case to be made that IT could be a spoiler although better cases can be made for "Lincoln", "Silver Linings" and "Life of Pi".
+BEST DIRECTION
1) Steven Spielberg/Lincoln(1)
2) Ang Lee/Life of Pi (2)
3) David O. Russell/Silver Linings (3) 4) Michael Haneke/Amour (4)
5) Behn Zeitlin/Beasts (5)
Comment: This thing has become a real horse race. Spielberg maintains a small edge over Lee, but it's very small. Also, Russell is in striking distance.
Comment: Lawrence has been the front runner for months. She was seriously challenged by Jessica Chastain but that dynamic has faded. Rather, Emanuelle Riva's stock has continued to rise over the last month and now she is a very close second and the trendy pick to win (she's the first choice of 3 of my Oscar specialists). This category has become very tight.
+BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
1) Tommy Lee Jones/Lincoln (1)
2) Robert DeNiro/Silver Linings Playbook (3)
3) Philip Seymour Hoffman/The Master (2)
4) Christoph Waltz/Django Unchained (4) 5) Alan Arkin/Argo (5)
Comment: This has also turned into a real dog fight. Jones seemed to be unbeatable 6 weeks ago, but the race has evolved to the point that any of the top 4 men could win the honor and, frankly, I wouldn't be all that shocked if Arkin sneaked in to win on the strength of the "Argo" wave.
Comment: If Hathaway doesn't win, it will also be one of the biggest Oscar "shockers' in a good long time.
+BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
1) Chris Terrio/Argo (3)
2) Tony Kushner/Lincoln (1)
3) David O. Russell/Silver Linings Playbook (2)
4) David Magee/Life of Pi (4)
5) Lucy Alibar and Behn Zeitlin/Beasts (5)
Comment: The "Argo" momentum has carried Terrio to the top of the chart with a fractional lead over Kushner (who has lead this category for months). Keep in mind, I crunched the numbers for this morning's chart prior to Terrio winning the Writer's Guild award last night (see below). It's a two horse race with Terrio the smallest of favorites now.
+BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
1) Michael Haneke/Amour (3)
2) Quentin Tarantino/Django Unchained (1)
3) Mark Boal/Zero Dark Thirty (2)
4) Wes Anderson and Roman Coppola/Moonrise Kingdom (4)
5) John Gatins/Flight (5)
Comment: Mark Boal (ZDT) won last night at the WGA but Haneke wasn't eligible for that nomination (neither was Tarantino). So, this is a three horse race and pretty close as well.
So where does this put us with 6 days to Oscar? "Argo" has won major awards from the following: PGA, DGA, WGA, SAG, ACE the Critic's Choice and Golden Globes. It's going to win Best Picture on Sunday night and likely Best Editing. It has a decent shot at Best Adapted Screenplay and I think still could get Best Original Score. All told 3 or 4 Oscars. The biggest total of wins on Sunday night may be "Life of Pi" which could end up winning 5-6 Oscars. There's a very real chance that "Lincoln" may go home without a single Oscar despite having the most nominations (12).
Ultimately, this is primarily a blog that focuses on Telluride films and as of this post, TFF #39 looks formidable. Despite a year with a relatively modest nomination total, The SHOW could end up with as many as 9 Oscars at the end of the night awarded to films that played this year (Think: "Argo" 4-Picture, Adapted Script, Score and Editing, "Amour" 3-Foreign Language, Original Screenplay and Actress and wins for "Paperman" and "Asad" in the shorts categories).
FINAL PRECURSORS: WRITERS AND EDITORS
The Writer's Guild of America awarded their top prizes for the year last night and as mentioned above TFF #39 Sneak Preview "Argo" was awarded for Best Adapted Screenplay. "Zero Dark Thirty" won for Original Screenplay. Hers' the report filed by USA Today:
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