Happy New Year to those in the Central Time Zone!

News from the OC-Goodbye 2010

ThePlaylist ThePlaylist
In Theaters: 'Blue Valentine,' 'Another Year,' 'Biutiful,' 'The Way Back' http://dlvr.it/CQzg3

All but "Blue Valentine" palyed as a part of TFF #37.

Also, we're in Telluride for New Year's. Looking forward to the celebration tonight at the New Sheridan and on Colorado Ave. in front of the courthouse. But it is going to be very, very COLD. 5 to 10 below zero!!!

Reportedly celebs in town include Justin Timberlake, Mark Wahlberg and Jerry Seinfeld.

Happy New Year everyone!

The Oscar Clearinghouse #5 Pre-Holiday Edition

How many nominations for "The King's Speech" on January 25th?

Here's one more Clearinghouse in a big way before the end of 2011. TFF #37 films in CAPS AND BOLD.

The Clearinghouse is using data gathered from Scott Feinberg, The Gold Derby, Awards Daily, Dave Karger at Entertainment Weekly, Film Misery, InContention.com, Gurus of Gold from the LA Times, Awards Circuit and Film Experience for this latest chart.

BEST PICTURE: 1) The Social Network, 2) THE KING'S SPEECH, 3) Inception, 4) The Fighter, 5) Toy Story 3, 6) BLACK SWAN, 7) The Kids Are All Right, 8) True Grit, 9) 127 HOURS, 10) Winter's Bone.

Next Five: The Town, ANOTHER YEAR, THE WAY BACK, Rabbit Hole, Blue Valentine.

Hot: The Fighter and Black Swan

Not: 127 Hours

Thought: The bunching at the top between "Social Network" and "King's Speech" could not be tighter. My current theory is that "Social" has peaked too soon and with so much unanimity (so many critic's accolades...) that "King's" will still win Best Picture. A lot of conventional wisdom says lately that "127 Hours" will slide off the list of 10 nominees and be replaced by "The Town." That would also mean that Danny Boyle would slip off the Best Director list of 5 nominees. "Black Swan" and "The Fighter" are both getting some good boost in the last month. It would also appear that the only other film hovering under the current ten likely nominees that has any realistic chance of stealing a Best Picture nomination is "Another Year." I'd be completely OK with that. As I have said in this space it was one of my favorites at Telluride this year. Certainly a better film than "The Kids Are All Right' "Toy Story 3" and, dare I say it "The Social Network."

BEST DIRECTOR 1) David Fincher/The Social Network, 2) TOM HOOPER/THE KING'S SPEECH, 3) DARREN ARONOFSKY/BLACK SWAN, 4) Christopher Nolan/Inception, 5) DANNY BOYLE/127 HOURS

Next Five: David O. Russell/The Fighter, Joel & Ethan Coen/True Grit, Debra Granik/Winter's Bone, Linda Cholodenko/Kids Are All Right, MIKE LEIGH/ANOTHER YEAR.

Hot: Aronofsky and Granik

Not: PETER WEIR/THE WAY BACK (who fell off the top ten) and Leigh.

Thought: Again, Boyle may be out next time and Russell and The Coens are the likely candidates to get the fifth nomination. For my money it should be the Coens (but I haven't seen "Winter's Bone" yet, it's sitting on my DVD player as I write). In a perfect world there would be 6 nominees and Boyle could stay on the list.

BEST ACTRESS: 1) NATALIE PORTMAN/BLACK SWAN, 2) Annete Bening/Kids Are All Right, 3) Jennifer Lawrence/Winter's Bone, 4) Nicole Kidman/Rabbit Hole, 5) LESLEY MANVILLE/ANOTHER YEAR

Next Five (well three): Michelle Williams/Blue Valentine, Julianne Moore/Kids Are All Right, Hilary Swank/Conviction and 4 others tied at the number 9 spot.

Hot: Swank...who rejoins the list after her Golden Globe nomination

Not: Nobody really nuked since the last Clearinghouse

Thought: It's a two horse race Portman and Bening neck and neck (they keep trading the top spot on the Clearinghouse and are current separated by 2 points) and likely to be that way right up to the opening of the envelope. Personally, I'd vote for Portman. I'd also like to see Manville hang on for the 5th spot, but I have a suspicion that that's not going to happen. Nobody is seeing the film and (as I've said repeatedly) it's ACTUALLY A SUPPORTING ROLE! Realistically and probably the fifth spot ends up in Michelle Williams hands.

BEST ACTOR: 1) COLIN FIRTH/THE KING'S SPEECH, 2) JAMES FRANCO/127 HOURS, 3) Jesse Eisenberg/The Social Network, 4) Robert Duvall/Get Low, 5) Jeff Bridges/True Grit.

Next Five: Ryan Gosling/Blue Valentine, Mark Wahlberg/The Fighter, JAVIER BARDEM/BIUTIFUL, Leonardo DiCaprio/Shutter Island, Paul Giamatti/Barney's Version.

Hot: Eisenberg

Not: Bridges

Thought: Increasingly becoming Firth's to lose (he has perfect score on The Clearinghouse). I think Franco's a lock and after that you have 5 guys shooting for the remaining 3 spots...and Bardem isn't in that group.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS: 1) Melissa Leo/The Fighter, 2) Amy Adams/The Fighter, 3) HELENA BONHAM CARTER/THE KING'S SPEECH, 4) Hailee Steinfeld/True Grit, 5) Jacki Weaver/Animal Kingdom.

Next Five: MILA KUNIS/BLACK SWAN, Dianne Weist/Rabbit Hole, Miranda Richardson/Made in Dagenham, Sissy Spacek/Get Low, BARBARA HERSHEY/BLACK SWAN.

Hot: Leo, Adams, Steinfeld and Kunis

Not: Weist

Thought: The most fun category of the Big 8. It's fluid, and tightly packed. And full up with terrific performances. It's going to be tough to leave some of these women off the carpet on Oscar night. Leo and Adams are riding a "Fighter" wave. Kunis is riding a "Swan" wave. Steinfeld's "Grit" is finally in theaters and it's stunning and Bonham Carter just keeps hanging in. I suspect that they'll ultimately be the five nominees and that Weaver and Weist will be on the outside looking in.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR: 1) Christian Bale/The Fighter, 2) GEOFFREY RUSH/THE KING'S SPEECH, 3) Mark Ruffalo/Kids Are All Right, 4) Andrew Garfield/Social Network, 5) Jeremy Renner/The Town

Next Five: John Hawkes/Winter's Bone, Sam Rockwell/Conviction, ED HARRIS/THE WAY BACK, Bill Murray/Get Low, Michael Douglas/Wall Street, Money Never...

Hot: Hawkes

Not: Harris

Thought: Bale's to lose. He's one point off a perfect score. I love Rush's performance in "King's Speech" but Bale is fantastic as Wahlberg's wastrel brother in "The Fighter." You really can't take your eyes off his performance. For my money you can have Ruffalo and Garfield..they're OK...but not in the same league as Bale and Rush's performances. The top four are likely nominees with Renner, Hawkes and Rockwell realistically slugging it out for the last spot. I think Harris's chances are gone because "The Way Back's" profile is so small as to be virtually invisible.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: 1) The Social Network, 2) Toy Story 3, 3) Winter's Bone, 4) 127 HOURS, 5) True Grit

Next Five: The Town, Rabbit Hole, How to Train Your Dragon, THE WAY BACK, The Ghost Writer.

Hot: Zip

Not:Also zip.

Thought: So little movement here from the last Clearinghouse. The top five are pretty solid with "Rabbit Hole" and "The Town" the only realistic spoilers.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: 1) (TIE) THE KING'S SPEECH and The Kids Are All Right, 3) ANOTHER YEAR, 4) Inception, 5) The Fighter

Next Five: BLACK SWAN, Blue Valentine, Get Low, Somewhere, Made in Dagenham.

Hot: Zip

Not: Blue Valentine

Thought: Kings and Kids are locks. After that it gets dicey in this category with the next 5 listed films all real possibilities to get one of the three remaining nominations.

UNDERVIEWS:

Telluride #37 films have 15 of the 45 nominations in the Big 8 categories if The Clearinghouse is to be believed at this moment and another 9 possibles. There will be further nominations in the technical categories (one source thinks that "The King's Speech" could get up to 12 nominations by itself) as well as the Foreign Film category (Biutiful) and Documentary/Shorts categories... I still think TFF #37 could end up with 30 plus nominations.

And to repeat..."Social Network," Kids Are All Right" and "Toy Story 3"...over rated!

"True Grit, " "The King's Speech" and "Another Year"...see them now!

After the New Year (which we plan to spend back in Telluride...woo hoo!), The Clearinghouse will begin to include prognostications on the technical and other categories as well.

Have a great Holiday, everyone!

Follow on Twitter @Gort2 and Facebook.

True Grit...Coens hit a home run. Bridges and Steinfeld are fantastic. Beautifully shot by Roger Deakins. See it now!

SAG Nominations and the OC

"The King's Speech" and "Black Swan" continue their awards assault with this morning's announcement from the Screen Actor's Guild. Here is the complete list from USA Today:

Film Ensemble:
Black Swan
The Fighter
The Kids Are All Right
The King's Speech
The Social Network

Lead actor
Jeff Bridges, True Grit
Robert Duvall, Get Low
Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network
Colin Firth, The King's Speech
James Franco, 127 Hours

Lead actress
Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right
Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole
Jennifer Lawrence, Winter's Bone
Natalie Portman, Black Swan
Hilary Swank, Conviction

Supporting Actor
Christian Bale, The Fighter
John Hawkes, Winter's Bone
Jeremy Renner, The Town
Mark Ruffalo, The Kids Are All Right
Geoffrey Rush, The King's Speech

Supporting Actress
Amy Adams, The Fighter
Helena Bonham Carter, The King's Speech
Mila Kunis, Black Swan
Melissa Leo, The Fighter
Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit

Comment: "Ensemble" is what approximates Best Picture for the SAG Awards, so this almost certainly closes the deal for "Black Swan," "The Fighter," and "The Kids Are All Right" to be on the Oscar list of 10 nominees. "King's Speech" and "Social Network" have been considered locks...but these other three haven't been nearly the consensus picks that Kings and Social have been.

Actor: Nice boost for Duvall and for Bridges...after the Globe snub from earlier this week. Still likely Firth's to lose.

Actress: Hilary Swank...really? OK...Still likely a two horse race between Bening and Portman.

Supporting Actor: Hawkes and Renner are creeping into the conversation in a serious way for Oscar nominations...But it's between Bale and Rush for the win.

Supporting Actress: What an interesting category...Adams and Leo in "The Fighter" coming on like gangbusters. Steinfeld and Kunis are gathering some serious steam as well...and Bonham Carter maybe the lone lock in the category at this point...not to win, but to get a nomination. Anyone who says they think they know who's going to win this Oscar...don't believe them.

5 Categories/25 total nominees...8 for TFF #37 films.

King's Speech-4

Black Swan-3

127 Hours-1

Other non-Telluride films with multiple noms:

Social Network-2, Winter's Bone-2, The Fighter-4, Kids-3, True Grit-2

More Guilds still to come...Producers, Directors and Writers among others. we'll try to have a new comprehensive look at the Oscar race on The Clearinghouse within the next few days.

SAG Nominations

Screen Actor's Guild nominations will be out this morning. What will they tell us? The actor's branch is the largest branch in the Academy...so, perhaps some insight this morning for the 4 acting races as well as Best Picture.

TFF #37 and the Golden Globes

Here from Incontention.com is this morning's nominee list from the Golden Globes.

Best Picture – Drama “Black Swan” “The Fighter” “Inception” “The King’s Speech” “The Social Network”

Best Picture – Musical/Comedy “Alice in Wonderland” “Burlesque” “The Kids Are All Right” “Red” “The Tourist”

Best Director-Darren Aronofsky, “Black Swan” David O. Russell, “The Fighter” Christopher Nolan, “Inception” Tom Hooper, “The King’s Speech” David Fincher, “The Social Network”

Best Actor – Drama Jesse Eisenberg, “The Social Network”Colin Firth, “The King’s Speech”James Franco, “127 Hours”Ryan Gosling, “Blue Valentine”Mark Wahlberg, “The Fighter”

Best Actress – Drama Halle Berry, “Frankie and Alice” Nicole Kidman, “Rabbit Hole”Jennifer Lawrence, “Winter’s Bone” Natalie Portman, “Black Swan” Michelle Williams, “Blue Valentine”

Best Actor – Musical/Comedy Johnny Depp, “Alice in Wonderland”Johnny Depp, “The Tourist” Paul Giamatti, “Barney’s Version”Jake Gyllenhaal, “Love and Other Drugs” Kevin Spacey, “Casino Jack”

Best Actress – Musical/Comedy Annette Bening, “The Kids Are All Right”Anne Hathaway, “Love and Other Drugs”Angelina Jolie, “The Tourist”Julianne Moore, “The Kids Are All Right” Emma Stone, “Easy A”

Best Supporting Actor-Christian Bale, “The Fighter” Michael Douglas, “Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps”Andrew Garfield, “The Social Network”Jeremy Renner, “The Town” Geoffrey Rush, “The King’s Speech”

Best Supporting Actress-Amy Adams, “The Fighter” Helena Bonham Carter, “The King’s Speech” Mila Kunis, “Black Swan” Melissa Leo, “The Fighter”Jacki Weaver, “Animal Kingdom”

Best Screenplay-Christopher Nolan, “Inception” Lisa Cholodenko and Stuart Blumberg, “The Kids Are All Right” David Seidler, “The King’s Speech” Danny Boyle and Simon Beaufoy, “127 Hours” Aaron Sorkin, “The Social Network”

Best Foreign Language Film-“Biutiful” “The Concert”“The Edge”“I Am Love”“In a Better World”

Best Animated Feature-“Despicable Me”“How to Train Your Dragon” “The Illusionist” “Tangled” “Toy Story 3”

Best Original Score-Danny Elfman, “Alice in Wonderland” Hans Zimmer, “Inception” Alexandre Desplat, “The King’s Speech”A.R. Rahman, “127 Hours” Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross, “The Social Network”

Best Original Song-“Bound to You” from “Burlesque” “You Haven’t Seen the Last of Me” from “Burlesque” “There’s a Place for Us” from “The Chronicles of Narnia: The Voyage of the Dawn Treader” “Coming Home” from “Country Strong” “I See the Light” from “Tangled”

And a few notes...

16 nominations from among this year's Telluride films...

The King's Speech-7 (the most of any film)

Black Swan-4

127 Hours-3

The Illusionist-1

Biutiful-1

Best Pic Drama-Boost for "The Fighter" Ding for "True Grit" (no Grit anywhere, and the HFPA usually loves the Coens) and "127 Hours" (but maybe not too much...it gets nominations for Actor and Screenplay, so...)

Best Pic Music/Comedy- This category is even worse than normal...(and I'm one of the 8 people on the planet that actually liked "Alice"). Further, if "Kids Are All Right" is a comedy, I'll eat my hat!

Best Director-Again...boost for Russell and "The Fighter". No nom for Danny Boyle, though.

Best Actor-Drama-The boost for "The Fighter" lifts Marky Mark Wahlberg into the Best Actor race. Up to this point the supporting players were getting all the press.

Best Actress-Drama-Halle Berry from almost out of nowhere...

Best Actor-Music/Comedy-Not a soul here who will play for an Oscar nom

Best Actress-Music/Comedy-Boost for Jullianne Moore who has been getting the lesser speculation as compared to her co-star Annette Bening. Maybe a bit of a boost for Hathaway.

Supporting Actor-A little surprise for Michael Douglas

Supporting Actress-Mila Kunis...how about that.

Screenplay-Nice notice for "127 Hours"

Glad to see "The Illusionist" in the mix. It's Oscar chances, though are probably still slim.

News from the OC-Globes

Golden Globe (the Oscar wanna-be) nominations are announced this morning...more later

Just gonna say it, Social Network, Toy Story 3 and Kids Are All Right all incredbly over-rated.

News from the OC- NY Film Critics Circle

NYFCC has announced. According to E! Online, here are their results:

• Best Film: The Social Network
• Best Director: David Fincher, The Social Network
• Best Screenplay: Lisa Cholodenko & Stuart Blumberg, The Kids Are All Right
• Best Actor: Colin Firth, The King's Speech
• Best Actress: Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right
• Best Supporting Actor: Mark Ruffalo, The Kids Are All Right
• Best Supporting Actress: Melissa Leo, The Fighter
• Best Cinematography: Matthew Libatique, The Black Swan
• Best Animated Film: The Illusionist
• Best Non-Fiction Film: Inside Job
• Best Foreign Language Film: Carlos
• Best First Feature: Animal Kingdom

Read more: http://www.eonline.com/uberblog/b215953_social_network_tops_ny_critics_circle.html#ixzz181kHVJji

As you can see, Telluride #37 films were named in 5 categories.

News from the OC...BFCA's

Something like 35 Telluride-centric nominations from the Broadcast Film Critic Association. Black Swan with 12, King's Speech with 11 and 127 Hours with 8. Here's a link to the story from Kris Tapley at Incontention:

http://incontention.com/2010/12/13/black-swan-leads-bfca-field-with-a-record-12-nominations/

News from the OC

"The Social Network" cleans up today. Best Pic from LA Film Critics, NY Film Critics Online, Boston Society of Film Critics...and AFI Top Ten. I've said it before...ehhh?

Here's the AFI Top Ten and a couple of extras. Telluride Film Festival 37 does all right.

BLACK SWAN

THE FIGHTER

INCEPTION

THE KIDS ARE ALL RIGHT

127 HOURS

THE SOCIAL NETWORK

THE TOWN

TOY STORY 3

TRUE GRIT

WINTER'S BONE

and...

AFI SPECIAL AWARDS
THE KING'S SPEECH

WAITING FOR SUPERMAN

New York's Online Critics awarded Natalie Portman of Black Swan Best Actress. Swan also was cited for Cinematography and Score. James Franco of 127 Hours was honored for Best Actor.

LA's Film Critics awarded Colin Firth of The King's Speech Best Actor and Niels Arestrup of the French prison drama A Prophet (TFF #36) Best Supporting Actor. Best Direction was shared by Olivier Assayas for Carlos. Carlos was also named Runner-Up for Best Film and Best Foreign Film. Edgar Ramirez , who played the title role, was runner-up to Firth. The King's Speech also scored as the runner-up in a number of categories including Geoffrey Rush as Supporting Actor as well as in Production Design and for David Seidler's Screenplay. The Illusionist was runner-up as Best Animated Film.

Boston's Society of Film Critics only cited Portman as Best Actress and the Film Editing of Black Swan from Telluride 37 films in their year end awards.

New York's Film Critics Circle announces tomorrow.

News from the OC

ebertchicago
"Black Swan" opens wider today. Natalie Portman may be Oscar-bound. My review: http://j.mp/f3Wcrn

News from the OC

THR_Movies
'The King's Speech' Poster and Queen Bonham Carter's Oscar Problem http://bit.ly/dH39Ht

The OC Looks at the NBR

Lesley Manville wins NBR Best Actress for Mike Leigh's "Another Year." Does it boost her Oscar chances???

Here is the press release from the National Board of Review's announcement today TFGF#37 films are Big and Bold):

New York, NY – December 2, 2010 – The National Board of Review named The Social Network the 2010 Best Film of the Year. Directed by David Fincher, this timeless drama explores the moment at which Facebook, the most revolutionary social phenomenon of the new century, was invented and the resulting lawsuits. The film was released on October 1st by Columbia Pictures.
Below is a full list of the awards given by the National Board of Review:

Best Film: The Social Network
Best Director: David Fincher, The Social Network
Best Actor: Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network
Best Actress: Lesley Manville, Another Year
Best Supporting Actor: Christian Bale, The Fighter
Best Supporting Actress: Jacki Weaver, Animal Kingdom
Best Foreign Language Film: Of Gods and Men
Best Documentary: Waiting for "Superman"
Best Animated Feature: Toy Story 3
Best Ensemble Cast: The Town
Breakthrough Performance: Jennifer Lawrence, Winter’s Bone
Best Directorial Debut: Sebastian Junger and Tim Hetherington, Restrepo
Spotlight Award: Sylvain Chomet and Jacques Tati, The Illusionist
Best Original Screenplay: Chris Sparling, Buried
Best Adapted Screenplay: Aaron Sorkin, The Social Network
Special Filmmaking Achievement Award: Sofia Coppola for writing, directing, and producing Somewhere
William K. Everson Film History Award: Leonard Maltin (not a film, but a Telluride fixture)
NBR Freedom of Expression: Fair Game, Conviction, Howl
Production Design Award: Dante Ferretti, Shutter Island

Ten Best Films
(in alphabetical order)
Another Year

The Fighter

Hereafter

Inception

The King’s Speech

Shutter Island

The Town

Toy Story 3

True Grit

Winter’s Bone

Five Best Foreign-Language Films
(in alphabetical order)

I Am Love

Incendies

Life, Above All

Soul Kitchen

White Material

Five Best Documentaries
(in alphabetical order)
A Film Unfinished

Inside Job

Joan Rivers: A Piece of Work

Restrepo

The Tillman Story

Top Ten Independent Films
(in alphabetical order)
Animal Kingdom

Buried

Fish Tank (TFF #36)

The Ghost Writer

Greenberg

Let Me In

Monsters

Please Give

Somewhere

Youth in Revolt

Boy, the NBR has swallowed "The Social Network" Kool-Aid.

Glad to see the accolades for "The King's Speech" and very glad for "Another Year" on the list of 10 and very pleased there is some recognition for "The Illusionist." I'm also happy for Mr. Leonard Maltin with whom I had a great conversation about 3D in film while in Telluride. Congratulations Mr. M!

...but no mention of "Black Swan," "The Way Back," or "127 Hours" seems criminal. Personally, I think that "TS3", and "Social Network" are pretty over-rated anyway (as is the NBR snubbed "Kids Are All Right").

Most Oscarologists don't think the NBR really is much of a harbinger or has much effect...I can only hope that's true.

News from the OC

ThePlaylist
Watch: New Trailer For Peter Weir's 'The Way Back' With Colin Farrell, Ed Harris & Jim Sturgess http://dlvr.it/82S0b

MovieCityNews
A Conversation with Tamara Drewe Director Stephen Frears: We shot it late in the year--in September, not in mid-su... http://bit.ly/cOuzO6

Variety_Film
Bonham Carter feels fit for a queen: Film News: 'Speech' gets actress talking up royal role -- Royal leads Colin F... http://bit.ly/cm6jBT

News from the OC

firstshowing Black Swan is a masterpiece. Absolutely love that movie holy crap love it so much. Just as amazing a second time!

kristapley Black Swan even better the second time. A true opus. Someone outside just said, "I don't even know what emotion to feel."

akstanwyck Black swan: it is portman vs. Bening now.

hitfix Contender Countdown: Who will mount a challenge to 'King's Speech' and 'Social Network'? http://bit.ly/coQRP8

ebertchicago "127 Hours." He cuts off his arm because what else was he gonna do? My 4-star review, just posted: http://j.mp/deT3JX

ThePlaylist Watch: New Trailer For Sylvain Chomet's 'The Illusionist' http://dlvr.it/82Tg7

News from the OC

Variety_Film

Boyle aims for the visceral in '127 Hours': Film News: Helmer takes many directions to achieve impact -- Danny B... http://bit.ly/eA3FQX
Variety_Film

For Aronofsky, 'Swan' is personal: Film News: Despite horror overtones, pic is about 'girl becoming a woman' --... http://bit.ly/g4jZMG


Variety_Film
Leigh's brand of improvised cinema: Film News: 'Year' director brings vision to drama -- A Mike Leigh film is cr... http://bit.ly/hAn0mr

The Oscar Clearinghouse #4

"The Fighter" has come out swinging...

It helps when people have actually seen your film. David O. Russell's "The Fighter" featuring Mark Wahlburg, Christian Bale, Melissa Leo and Amy Adams has stormed into contention after press screenings were generally positive. Also warming up some over the last 4 weeks..."The Town," "Winter's Bone" (which is likely to get more boosts from its success at the Gotham Awards and Independent Spirit Nominations) and "Get Low." Losing some steam..."True Grit" (although I really expect that to change in the next week or so as screenings have occurred and the press embargo for that is supposed to end tomorrow...) and "Another Year" (which is too bad, because I really liked "Another Year" a lot).

Here's the breakdown on the last day of November using the source material from: Movie City News Gurus of Gold, Awards Daily, Film Misery, InContention.com, Scott Feinberg, Awards Circuit and Film Experience.

TELLURIDE #37 FILMS IN CAPS AND BOLD.

Best Picture: 1) The Social Network, 2) THE KING'S SPEECH, 3) 127 HOURS, 4) Toy Story 3, 5) Inception, 6) The Kids Are All Right, 7) True Grit, 8) The Fighter, 9) BLACK SWAN, 10) Winter's Bone

Close: The Town, THE WAY BACK, ANOTHER YEAR, Rabbit Hole, Blue Valentine

Out: Fair Game, Hereafter

Hot: 127 HOURS, The Fighter, The Town

Not: True Grit, ANOTHER YEAR

Thought: Social Network and King's Speech continue to jockey for the top spot despite what I think is still an almost subliminal decline foe Social Network. I continue to think that this category is a four horse race with those two plus True Grit and Inception battling for the prize. Also, finally saw The Kids Are All Right...and it's all right...over-rated, over-hyped, but all right.

Best Director: 1) David Fincher/Social Network, 2) TOM HOOPER/KING'S SPEECH, 3) Christopher Nolan/Inception, 4) DANNY BOYLE/127 HOURS, 5) DARREN ARONOFSKY/BLACK SWAN

Close: The Coen Brothers/True Grit, David O. Russell/The Fighter, MIKE LEIGH/ANOTHER YEAR, Linda Cholodenko/Kids Are All Right, PETER WEIR/THE WAY BACK

Out: Debra Granik/Winter's Bone

Hot: Russell

Not: Weir

Thought: What an ugly category. 7 players for the 5 spots. I still think the Coens get in and Aronofsky will be on the outside looking in.

Best Actress: 1) Anette Bening/Kids Are All Right, 2) NATALIE PORTMAN/BLACK SWAN, 3) Jennifer Lawrence/Winter's Bone, 4) Nicole Kidman/Rabbit Hole, 5) LESLEY MANVILLE/ANOTHER YEAR

Close: Michelle Williams/Blue Valentine, Julianne Moore/Kids Are All Right, Anne Hathaway/Love and Other Drugs, Tilda Swinton/I Am Love, Naomi Watts/Fair Game

Out: Diane Lane, Sally Hawkins

Hot: Swinton

Not: Manville...look out. The droop of Another Year's fortunes seems to be dragging her out of the race.

Thought:See above

Best Actor: 1) COLIN FIRTH/THE KING'S SPEECH, 2) Jeff Bridges/True Grit, 3) JAMES FRANCO/127 HOURS, 4) Robert Duvall/Get Low, 5) Ryan Gosling/Blue Valentine

Close: Jesse Eisenberg/Social Network, JAVIER BARDEM/BIUTIFUL, Mark Wahlberg/The Fighter, Leonardo DiCaprio/Shutter Island, Pau Giamatti/Barney's Version

Out: Sean Penn

Hot: Bridges and DiCaprio

Not: Giamatti

Thought: Bridges continued assault may be a better indicator that True Grit is a serious player as opposed to the movement in the Best Picture category.

Best Supporting Actress: 1) HELENA BONHAM CARTER/THE KING'S SPEECH, 2)Diane Weist/Rabbit Hole, 3) Melissa Leo/The Fighter, 4) Amy Adams/The Fighter, 5) Jacki Weaver/Animal Kingdom

Close: Miranda Richardson/Made in Dagenham, Hailey Steinfeld/True Grit, Sissy Spacek/Get Low, MILA KUNIS/BLACK SWAN, Marion Cotillard/Inception

Out: Kristin Scott Thomas

Hot: Adams and Kunis

Not: Steinfeld

Thought: Nothing shows the jump that The Fighter has made more clearly than the leap the Amy Adams has enjoyed in the last couple of weeks.

Best Supporting Actor: 1) Christian Bale/The Fighter, 2) GEOFFREY RUSH/THE KING'S SPEECH, 3) Mark Ruffalo/The Kids Are All Right, 4) Andrew Garfield/The Social Network, 5) ED HARRIS/THE WAY BACK

Close: Sam Rockwell/Conviction, Justin Timberlake/Social Network, Matt Damon/True Grit, Jeremy Renner/The Town, Bill Murray/Get Low

Out: Josh Brolin

Hot: Garfield, Damon

Not: Rockwell

Thought: Bale and Rush continue to duke it out...

Adapted Screenplay: 1) The Social Network, 2) Toy Story 3, 3) 127 HOURS, 4) Winter's Bone, 5) True Grit

Close: Rabbit Hole, The Town, THE WAY BACK, How to Train Your Dragon, The Ghost Writer

Out: Love and Other Drugs

Original Screenplay: 1) THE KING'S SPEECH, 2) The Kids Are All Right, 3) ANOTHER YEAR, 4) Inception, 5) Blue Valentine

Close: The Fighter, BLACK SWAN, Get Low, Made in Dagenham, Somewhere

Out: How Do You Know

Hot: Get Low

Thought: Maybe Another Year's only nomination.

Telluride films are losing some ground as they sit at this counting with 16 predicted nominations in the Big Eight categories and 8 other possible nominations...

NOMS:

THE KING'S SPEECH-6,

The Fighter, Kids Are All Right, The Social Network, 127 HOURS-4,

Inception, True Grit, BLACK SWAN, Winter's Bone-3

Toy Story3, ANOTHER YEAR, Rabbit Hole, Blue Valentine-2

NOMS + POSSIBLES

The Fighter-7

THE KING'S SPEECH, The Social Network, The Kids Are All Right, True Grit-6

BLACK SWAN-5

127 HOURS, Inception, THE WAY BACK, ANOTHER YEAR, Rabbit Hole, Blue Valentine, Get Low-4

And later this week...The National Board of Review releases its list of the Best Films of 2010...

Oscar goes in a new direction with hosts Franco and Hathaway. Some thoughts on the bold choice. http://bit.ly/fnGh2N