Cannes Speculation and TFF #38

Viggo Mortensen as Sigmund Freud in David Cronenberg's "A Dangerous Method"

Cannes will announce its line up in just under three weeks and some spec pieces have begun to appear as to what might be expected to play as part of that festival. This allows us to speculate about the likelihood of those guesses insofar as Telluride's 38th edition is concerned.

I'm specifically looking at articles from Brad Brevet at Rope of Silicon (http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/article/45-potential-titles-rumored-for-the-2011-cannes-film-festival) and Mike Goodridge at Screen Daily (http://www.screendaily.com/festivals/cannes/fremaux-faces-a-list-deluge-in-countdown-to-cannes/5025131.article).

Here's what we know: Woody Allen's "Midnight in Paris"is the only confirmed film at this time for Cannes.

Now the rest is guesswork...

Interestingly there is some discord between the two articles about the availability and/or likelihood that Pedro Almodovar's new film "The Skin I Live In" will or won't play Cannes. Brevet seems to think it's a likely prospect. Goodridge claims that Almodovar won't play Cannes this year because of the Spanish premiere date on Sept. 2 and the reported twists in the film that he doesn't want out of the bag in May.

I can see Almodovar preeming it on Sept. 2 and then it being a "sneak" at Telluride.

Alexander Payne's "The Descendants" is pegged as a likely Cannes film and that would just check off another box on the "factors that lead to a Telluride slot" checklist.

Also tipped as likely Cannes films that I have previously speculated to be Telluride-likely: Eran Kolirin's "The Exchange" and Marjane Satrapi and Vincent Paronnaud's "Chicken with Plums."

A few Cannes guesses that I'm getting a Telluride vibe for are Paolo Sorrentino"s Sean Penn starrer "This Must Be the Place," "Free Men" starring "The Prophet's" Tahir Rahim and Lynne Ramsey's "We Need to Talk About Kevin."

And it seems that everyone is certain the David Cronenberg's "A Dangerous Method" with Viggo Mortensen and Michael Fassbender and Andrea Arnold's "Wuthering Heights" will not be ready for Cannes, but could and probably will be ready for the fall festival triad of Telluride, Toronto and Venice.

We'll know more in the next three weeks!

Payne Has a Date

Rope of Silicon reports tonight that Alexander Payne's "The Descendants" starring George Clooney has a release date in December. That would fit in nicely with an Oscar run attempt that could easily start at TFF #38. "The Descendants" is on our list of "possibles" for this year's film festival. You can find the complete article here:

http://is.gd/mLjTmf

Additionally, at MTFB we're waiting for spec pieces to begin to appear for the lineup at Cannes, which is always full of films that make their way to Telluride (TFF averages 6 to 10 Cannes films each year). When we find them, we'll let you know!

And Now the 38th Telluride Film Festival

George Clooney and Alexander Payne on the set of "The Descendants"

83rd Oscars done...Check

TFF #38 passes on sale (started this week)...Check

TFF #37 Yearbook arrives in mail...Check

That means it's time to begin ferreting out the possible films for next Labor Day's Film Soiree in the San Juan Mountains of southwest Colorado. T-minus 6 months and counting until TFF #38 unspools at 9,000 feet.

So, what might we see? Thanks to the fine folks at Indiewire, Awards Daily, Hollywood Elsewhere, Film Misery, Rope of Silicon, Ioncinema and Incontention.com, I'm going to try to take a stab at some of next September's lineup in Telluride.

I looked back to last year's two columns in March when I tried this and found that I hit on "127 Hours'" "Another Year," Biutiful," "Black Swan," and "Never Let Me Go." So 5 of the 15 I took a stab with actually ended up in Telluride. I'd be pretty happy if I got that lucky again this year.

So without further ado...here's what might be at Telluride in September....

"The Descendants"- I had this on the list a year ago...didn't happen because it wasn't released. Now it's on the list for 2011. Why? It's director Alexander Payne with his first feature since Sideways in 2004. Payne was the 2009 Guest Director for the festival. You have to believe that if "The Descendants" is any good and since Fox Searchlight is the distributor that if they want it to play for Oscars a year from now its chances at being in Telluride are pretty good. The film stars George Clooney as a father with family issues and is set in Hawaii. Could we see Mr. Clooney on Colorado Ave. on Labor Day weekend? Maybe. Because I have a theory that he may be trying a double whammy with his own directorial effort...which leads to guess #2...

"The Ides of March"...directed by Mr. Clooney based on the political play "Farragut North' by Beau Willmon (adapted by Clooney and writing/producing partner Grant Heslov who brought you "Good Night and Good Luck" in 2005) . Clooney is featured as well as Ryan Gosling, Phillip Seymour Hoffman and Marisa Tomei. Why? The only rationale I have is synchronicity...If "Descendants" is there, then maybe Clooney kills two birds with one festival. And he'd get to re-unite on panels with the director of our third guess (and Clooney's director in 2009's "Up in the Air")...

"Young Adult" directed by Jason Reitman and written by Diablo Cody and starring Charlize Theron. You have to think that this pair that struck like lightening in Telluride in 2007 would try to replicate that experience (and Reitman had great success 2 years later when "Up in the Air" premiered there). The only hesitance I have putting this on the list is that it seems soooo obvious as to be no surprise at all. So the greater surprise might be a decision to go some other direction. But it's hard to argue with success and also, it may depend on Reitman's sense of superstition.

"Love" Michael Haneke returns after directing 2009's brilliant "The White Ribbon." You have to think that if it's ready (IMDB has it listed as a 2012 release) and on par with "Ribbon" (TFF #36) and "Cache (TFF #32) that it would be in the mix. "Love" stars Isabelle Huppert and Jean-Louis Trintignant.

"Moneyball" the story of Billy Beane and the Oakland A's baseball team starring Brad Pitt and Phillip Seymour Hoffman (...hmmm) and directed by Bennett Miller could show at The SHOW. Miller had terrific success with "Capote" (which, of course, starred Hoffman and earned him the Oscar....again...hmmmm) at Telluride #32 in 2005. It would also allow a mini-Ocean's 11-12-13 reunion between Pitt and Clooney.

"Shame" from writer-director Steve McQueen. His "Hunger" premiered at Telluride in 2008 and featured Michael Fassbender. Fassbender re-teams with McQueen for this film. So you have to think that because McQueen has some history at Telluride, that he could return with this. Oh, and the film also stars Telluride Belle of the Ball from the past two years, Carey Mulligan...she's been in town for both "An Education" (2009) and "Never Let Me Go." (2010) Three years in a row? I think it 's a real possibility. (If you see me in Telluride in September, ask me about my funny Steve McQueen story).

And speaking of "An Education," Lone Scherfig, is back this season with "One Day" starring Anne Hathaway and "The Way Back's" Jim Sturgess. It's story blurb on IMDB makes it sound a whole lot like "Same Time, Next Year" the Alan Alda/Ellen Burstyn comedy from 1978. Put it down as a possible for TFF #38.

"Wuthering Heights" Andrea Arnold who was a part of TFF in 2009 with "Fish Tank" is back directing this adaptation of the Emily Bronte classic.

"Chicken with Plums" the newest from Marjane Satrapi and Vincent Paronnaud who charmed Telluride audiences in 2007 with their wonderful animated "Persepolis"

"The Exchange" from director Eran Kolirin who was also a part of Telluride in 2007 with the delightful "The Band's Visit."

Pedro Almodovar who has often been a participant in Telluride Film Festivals could return for the first time sine 2006's "Volver" with his latest "The Skin That I Inhabit" starring Antonio Banderas as a revenge-seeking plastic surgeon.

"The Congress" from Ari Folman who last was in Telluride with his"Waltz with Bashir" in 2008. Although IMDB lists it as a 2013 release.

Others that could show (just because I have a "vibe" that they might): "Albert Nobbs" from director Rodrigo Garcia starring Glenn Close. Michelle Williams in "My Week with Marilyn" from director Simon Curtis. "A Dangerous Method" from director David Cronenberg featuring TFF # 36 tributee Viggo Mortensen and the aforementioned Michael Fassbender as Sigmund Freud and Carl Jung. "Coriolanus" the little seen Shakespearean play from actor-turned -director Ralph Fiennes.

In the "I'd love it, but there's no way it will be in Telluride" Department: Martin Scorsese's "Hugo Cabret," Clint Eastwood's "J. Edgar'" Stephen Daldry's "Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close," Tom Hank's "Larry Crowne," and Cameron Crowe's "We Bought a Zoo."

And finally, Terrence Malick's "The Tree of Life" which I have been stalking obsessively for nearly two years is set to open May 27th...right after the Cannes Festival. So, now, maybe I start stalking the movie he just shot here in Oklahoma! IMDB lists it as a 2012 release. TFF #39 anyone?

The OC and What They Are Saying About Oscar

Can't wait to find "the way back" to Telluride for TFF #38

After a couple of days to reflect, I spoke with some of the people that I have met over the past 3 years since starting this blog. People that are Academy members and Industry insiders... and asked them some questions about the 83rd edition of Oscar. Here are some of the things they had to say...

Universally, there was keen disappointment in the "show" itself. "Lifeless" was a term I heard more than once and I couldn't agree more. A good deal of scorn was heaped on James Franco, who seemed to just give up abut 1/2 way through the telecast. Anne Hathaway escaped being tarred as heavily as Franco, but my sources weren't exactly falling all over themselves to praise her work either. One of my peeps said, "It was like an episode of SNL where none of the skits is working." Good point.

Reflecting the general consensus from the Oscar blogosphere, my sources echoed the notion that there were no upsets or real surprises. Aside from mild (and I do mean mild) "surprises" in Cinematography and in terms of The King's Speech not winning as many statues as some of my source folk (and I) though would happen (I.E. Art Direction, Costume and Score). There was a little bit of surprise from one source that Melissa Leo won Supporting Actress over Hailee Steinfeld.

I had one passionate defense of The Social Network as the film of our time and the one film that would be remembered down the road.

I also had a source that commented on the success of Harvey Weinstein in terms of the actual Oscar campaign for "The King's Speech." In recent years Weinstein hasn't been able to put that together like he had in the past (think "Shakespeare in Love"). But this year's success makes one think that he's found his mojo again.

Lot's of praise for acceptance speeches of Colin Firth and Tom Hooper. And one note about how funny Randy Newman was.

Disappointment? One source was dismayed that "Inside Job" won out over "Restrepo." Another just said he wasn't all that passionate about any of Sunday night's results. Another was disappointed in Best Animated Short Subject.

I asked everyone to look forward one year and predict a film that we'd be talking about the day after the 84th Oscar ceremony...huge response for David Fincher's re-make of "The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo."

I'm dubious.

Coming Friday...the first look at what might play at Telluride's 38th Film Festival. Passes went on sale yesterday. My hookup says I'm solid for Labor Day! Counting down the days!!!

Oscar 83 Post-Mortem/The Oscar Clearinghouse

Move along, there's nothing to see here.

It was the Oscar Night of no surprises. The biggest "surprise," if you could call it that, was the Inception/Wally Pfister win for Cinematography over Roger Deakins for True Grit. And even that wasn't much of a stunner as Pfister had won the Guild award from cinematographers a few days ago. Otherwise, it was according to expectations.

The Clearinghouse was 17 of 21 in the non-Short subject categories. In the three categories where I personally differed from the Clearinghouse numbers, I was 1 of 3 (The OC got Costume and Supporting Actress right, I missed those. I got Tom Hooper's Directing Oscar right, The OC said it would be David Fincher). So, personally, I was 16 of 21...17 of 24 when you throw in the Short Subject categories.

Overall, both The OC analysis and I improved over last year's 14 of 24 so maybe we're getting better.

End of the night numbers:

The King's Speech-4

Inception-4

The Social Network-3

Alice in Wonderland-2

The Fighter-2

Toy Story 3-2

One each for Black Swan, Inside Job, In a Better World, & The Wolfman.

7 Oscars from Telluride #37 films (TKS-4, Black Swan-1, Inside Job-1, God of Love-1)

The King's Speech wave did not really materialize, but The Social Network didn't/couldn't take advantage of that (except, perhaps in the Best Score Category). The biggest beneficiaries were Alice in Wonderland and Inception.

And...James Franco...No, Anne Hathaway...Yes.

Later this week on MTFB/The OC...post Oscar interviews with Academy voters and industry insiders. Check back in!

And Finally, It's Oscar Time

Labor Day weekend 2010 in the San Juans of southwest Colorado seems like a long, long time ago. Since our incredible experience at the 37th Telluride Film Festival, Michael's Telluride Film Blog/The Oscar Clearinghouse has been tracking the possible outcomes for tonight's Oscar presentation and now it's time for the final pre-Oscar run-down of what we expect to happen after crunching numbers from Movie City News' The Guru's of Gold, Incontention.com, Scott Feinberg, Awards Daily, Awards Circuit, The Gold Derby.Com and Dave Karger at Entertainment Weekly. In all 24 categories (with TFF #37 in CAPS AND BOLD). And the Oscar will go to:

(Absolutely no real number crunching on these first three categories, so based on a limited range of "expert" opinion)

Short Doc: Killing in the Name

Short Animated: Madagascar: A Journey Diary

Short Live Action: GOD OF LOVE

Sound Mixing: The OC says: Inception...

Sound Editing: The OC says: Inception...

Visual Effects: The OC says: Inception...

Makeup: The OC says: The Wolfman...

And I have to agree.

Original Score: The OC says: Alexandre Desplat, THE KING'S SPEECH...

Original Song: The OC says: Randy Newman, "We Belong Together" from Toy Story 3...

Again, I agree that this is what will happen, but, you could see The OC wrong in both of these categories pretty easily. In Score, there is still significant feeling for The Social Network and Inception. And in the Best Song category, you can find supporters in the Oscar prediction community for any of the four nominated songs.

Foreign Film: The OC says: In a Better World/Denmark

And I will agree...but it is a tiny, tiny favorite with INCENDIES/Canada and BIUTIFUL/Mexico very, very close.

Documentary: The OC says: INSIDE JOB...

Again, I'm buying this, but it's also a really tight category. Serious heat exists for the art doc Exit Through the Gift Shop (and the attendant curiosity as to what Banksy might try in accepting...or declining...or both? Undoubtedly it would be entertaining)...and just as it is for Best Song, each of the five nominees has some serious Oscar prognosticators on its side.

Animated Film: The OC (and everyone on the planet that tries to divine this stuff) says: Toy Story 3...

Uh...Yes.

Costume: The OC says: Alice in Wonderland...

THE KING'S SPEECH is a close second in our analysis, and it's my actual pick...my first divergence from The OC.

Art Direction: The OC says:THE KING'S SPEECH...

Yes. But watch out for Alice or Inception...they also have a lot of support here.

Film Editing: The OC says: The Social Network...

I'm going to agree, but you can make a good case for any of the other four nominees and if it turns into a TKS Sweep...who knows?

Cinematography: The OC says: Roger Deakins/True Grit...

Again...yes. Deakins should finally win an Oscar for his great camera work. And it was impressive in True Grit. Possible spoiler would be Wally Pfister for Inception.

THE BIG EIGHT CATEGORIES:

Adapted Screenplay: The OC says: Aaron Sorkin/The Social Network...

Not much doubt here.

Original Screenplay: The OC says: David Seidler/THE KING'S SPEECH...

Close to a lock

Supporting Actor: The OC says: Christian Bale/The Fighter...

Again, close to a lock...except if TKS is in sweep mode, which could force Geoffrey Rush into an acceptance speech.

Supporting Actress: The OC says: Melissa Leo/The Fighter...

The predictors have come back around to Leo after a brief stretch were she was perceived as having lost some momentum. But Leo has bounced back in the last ten days in the estimation of most Oscar pundits. Still, I'm going to buck The Clearinghouse. I'm going with Hailee Steinfeld in True Grit. And, as you might expect, here's the added caveat that Helena Bonham Carter could surprise here if the TKS sweep is more of a tsunami.

Actress: The OC says: Natalie Portman/BLACK SWAN...

Yes. And she should win it too. There's still some Oscar picker love for Annette Bening, but I don't think that it's going to happen for her tonight.

Actor: The OC says: Colin Firth/THE KING'S SPEECH.

Ummm...if Firth doesn't win, then the Academy needs to start looking for new accountants for the Oscars...because he only loses if they count it wrong or bribery is involved.

Director: Maybe this has become the hottest race of the night. Big support for a Best Picture/Best Director split in the Oscar pundit club. Also significant support for the notion that if a film is the Best Picture, then it's Director has to have been the best as well...and most years that is the path that Oscar follows.

The OC says: David Fincher/The Social Network...

I say: Tom Hooper/THE KING'S SPEECH

BEST PICTURE: THE OC SAYS: THE KING'S SPEECH...

And I agree.

If the OC is right:

THE KING'S SPEECH-5

The Social Network-3

Inception-3

The Fighter-2

Toy Story 3-2

One each for: BLACK SWAN, INSIDE JOB, True Grit, The Wolfman, Alice in Wonderland, and In a Better World.

TFF #37 total: 7 (maybe up to 2 more depending on the outcome in Short Film categories)

If I'm right:

THE KING'S SPEECH-7

Inception-3

True Grit-2

Toy Story 3-2

The Social Network-2

One each for: BLACK SWAN, INSIDE JOB, The Fighter, The Wolfman, In a Better World

TFF #37 total: 9 (and again, maybe a couple more in Short Films).

Comments anyone?

I'll be tweeting during the Oscar cast tonight if anyone is interested set your Twitter search for @Gort2 and follow me.

MTFB/The OC will have preliminary reaction tomorrow and more in depth response from my actual industry source types and Academy members Tuesday or Wednesday.

So, now, we wait.

Tff #37/The Oscar Clearinghouse and The People That Vote

I had the relatively surreal experience of getting to correspond/converse with voting members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) yesterday. Both of my “interviewees” were very gracious with their time and I, again, want to thank them for taking the time to answer a novice blogger's questions about The Oscars.

Of course we didn’t get into specifics. As one of my sources reminded me yesterday, the Academy requests confidentiality. But we did talk some generalities that I found (and you might find) interesting.

Both of my interviewees bring a good deal of experience to the table as they each have been AMPAS members for more than 20 years. Neither of them are members of the acting branch (which is the largest branch of the Academy). One of them sent their ballot in early this month while the other sent a ballot in Saturday.

Interviewee #1 indicated that s/he was hopeful that at least some of the choices s/he made would be winners on Sunday night and did express some hope that “The King’s Speech” would win Best Picture.

I also asked Interviewee #1 what it was like to be voting for the biggest prize in the profession and in categories that often include people that are known personally to the voter. The response: “It’s a tough business, but one has to be impartial.”

Interviewee #2 told me that s/he was inundated prior to nomination time with screeners. I have always been fascinated by the studio process of sending those DVDs out to voters. Interviewee #2 told me that s/he had been sent 50+ screeners in the Oscar process. Interviewee #2 also had an interesting theory about the success of “Winter’s Bone” and its multiple nominations. S/he told me that “Winter’s Bone” had been the first screener to hit and that that jump seemed to always yield positive results. The theory is that being the first pays off with nominations.

Interestingly, Interviewee #1 disagreed. The contention was that the early screeners get buried by the sheer number of DVD’s that are sent out. #1 pointed out that Peter Weir’s “The Way Back” deliberately pursued a last second screener strategy so it would be the last thing voters saw.

I asked both interviewees about anything that they might have been disappointed about once the nominations came out. One said that they weren’t thrilled with the 4 Best Song nominations. The other said that they were disappointed that Lesley Manville hadn’t been nominated for Mike Leigh’s “Another Year.”

Ultimately, I was very grateful that both of these professionals took time out to answer some questions from an Oscar Blogging babe in the woods. The upshot, I will be talking to both of them again next week as a part of the post-Oscar parsing of the results. So, I’m looking forward to that.

Coming on Sunday morning…the final look at The Oscar Clearinghouse prior to Sunday night’s presentation.

Coming Soon...and Costumes

The Costume Designer's Guild awarded their trophies last night. Telluride films did well. "The King's Speech" and "Black Swan" were both winners. Here is the link to that story from The Hollywood Reporter.

THR_Movies
'King's Speech,' 'Black Swan,' 'Glee' Among Costume Designers Guild Award Winners http://j.mp/f2IvXy

Coming tomorrow: a surprise from The Oscar Clearinghouse...an interview with a member of the Academy of Motion Pictures Arts and Sciences.

The Oscar Clearinghouse/Telluride Film #37 and Tech/Doc/Foreign Oscars

Ten days...

Here is the latest compilation of the smartest of the smart when it comes to Oscar prediction for the 13 categories outside the Big 8 (we haven't included the Short Film nominees...not enough experts weighing in to get an objective conclusion). Data was gathered from Incontention.com, Awards Daily, Scott Feinberg and the Gurus of Gold from Movie City News.

Telluride #37 films in CAPS AND BOLD.

Film Editing: 1) The Social Network, 2) THE KING'S SPEECH, 3) The Fighter, 4) THE BLACK SWAN, 5) 127 HOURS.
Comment: A relatively close race between the top two. Although, you can make a pretty good case for any of the 5.

Cinematography: 1) True Grit, 2) Inception, 3) THE KING'S SPEECH, 4) BLACK SWAN, 5) The Social Network.
Comment: Roger Deakins was thought to be a shoo-in to get his first Oscar for "True Grit" and he's still a pretty solid favorite. But Wally Pfister's ASC win for "Inception" last weekend has made this a tighter race than expected.

Art Direction: 1) THE KING'S SPEECH, 2) Alice in Wonderland, 3) Inception, 4) True Grit, 5) Harry Potter/Deathly Hallows.
Comment: A pretty close race between King's and Alice. And Inception winning wouldn't be a shocker either.

Foreign Film: 1) INCENDIES/CANADA, 2) In a Better World/Denmark, 3) BIUTIFUL/MEXICO, 4) Outside the Law/Algeria, 5) Dogtooth/Greece.
Comment: A volatile category that any of the top three contenders could win.

Animated Film: 1) Toy Story 3, 2) How to Train a Dragon, 3) THE ILLUSIONIST.
Comment: TS3 has had this locked up for months.

Documentary: 1) INSIDE JOB, 2) Exit Through the Gift Shop, 3) Restrepo, 4) Waste Land, 5) Gasland.
Comment: This seems to be a two horse race between the top two.

Costume: 1) Alice in Wonderland, 2) THE KING'S SPEECH, 3) True Grit, 4) I Am Love, 5) The Tempest.
Comment: This category mirrors Art Direction...Alice or TKS...

Score: 1) (TIE) THE KING'S SPEECH and The Social Network, 3) Inception, 4) 127 HOURS, 5) How to Train Your Dragon.
Comment: Very close between TKS and TSN and an Inception win here wouldn't surprise either.

Song 1) Toy Story 3, 2) Tangled, 3) 127 HOURS, 4) Country Strong.
Comment: TS3 is likely, but not a lock to win this. Actually, this might be the most tightly bunched category from top to bottom out of the 21 major categories.

Sound Editing: 1) Inception, 2) True Grit, 3) Toy Story 3, 4) Tron: Legacy, 5) Unstoppable.
Comment: Inception has this locked up.

Sound Mixing: 1) Inception, 2) The Social Network, 3) THE KING'S SPEECH, 4) True Grit, 5) Salt.
Comment: Again, Inception is the prohibitive favorite.

Visual Effects: 1) Inception, 2) Alice in Wonderland, 3) Harry Potter/Deathly Hallows, 4) Hereafter, 5) Iron Man 2
Comment: Inception in a walk.

Makeup: 1) The Wolfman, 2) THE WAY BACK, 3) Barney's Version.
Comment: Wolfman has a substantial edge here.

Sooooo, if the Clearinghouse is 100 % accurate (Ha!)...This is the what the Oscar winning
breakdown would be on Feb. 27th:

The King's Speech wins 5 or 6 depending on Score ( and could get a 7th for Costume).

Inception wins 3.

The Social Network wins 2 or 3 (also depending on Score and could steal a 3rd or 4th if Fincher snags the Directing prize).

The Fighter and Toy Story 3 win 2 apiece.

And one Oscar each for: True Grit, Incendies, Inside Job, Alice in Wonderland, The Wolfman, and Black Swan.

Categories that are fluid: Director, Supporting Actress, Art Direction, Costume, Film Editing, Score, Song, Documentary and Foreign Film.

More next week...

The Oscar Clearinghouse/Telluride Film #37...11 Days

With only 11 days left until they open the envelopes in LA, here is the latest analysis for the Big 8 categories from The Clearinghouse. The data is from Incontention.com, Awards Daily, Dave Karger at entertainment Weekly, Movie City News' Gurus of Gold, Scott Feinberg and Awards Circuit.

Telluride Film #37 films in CAPS AND BOLD.

Best Picture: 1) THE KING'S SPEECH, 2) The Social Network, 3) The Fighter, 4) True Grit, 5) BLACK SWAN, 6) Inception, 7) Toy Story 3, 8) 127 HOURS, 9) The Kids Are All Right, 10) Winter's Bone.

Comment: King's is the solid favorite at this point. But there are still pockets of guessperts that are holding out for Social Network and an apparently aggressive campaign for The Fighter. Still, TKS looks like the winner.

Best Director: 1) TOM HOOPER/TKS, 2) David Fincher/TSN, 3) (tie) Joel & Ethan Coen/True Grit and David O. Russell/The Fighter, 5) DARREN ARONOFSKY/BLACK SWAN.

Comment: Despite Hooper's DGA win, the race between he and Fincher is regarded by the experts as essentially a toss-up. Fincher's BAFTA win earlier this week puts an exclamation point on it. In this most recent crunching of the numbers Hooper has a lead of a whisper-thin 1 point. Could we see a split with TKS winning Best Picture and Fincher winning Director? The numbers suggest that that could happen on Oscar night.

Best Actress: 1) NATALIE PORTMAN/BLACK SWAN, 2) Annette Bening/Kids Are All Right, 3) Jennifer Lawrence/Winter's Bone, 4) Nicole Kidman/Rabbit Hole, 5) Michelle Williams/Blue Valentine.

Comment: In a race that was considered close for most of this awards season, Portman has grabbed solid lead among the prognosticators. Bening is reportedly waged a really solid campaign since The Golden Globes but Portman is still seen as a clear front-runner.

Best Actor: 1) COLIN FIRTH/TKS, 2) JAMES FRANCO/127 HOURS, 3) Jesse Eisenberg/TSN, 4) Jeff Bridges/True Grit, 5) JAVIER BARDEM/BIUTIFUL.

Comment: This really is the "honor just to be nominated" category this year (and Supporting Actor is close to being he same way). No one is going to beat Firth.

Best Supporting Actress: 1) Melissa Leo/The Fighter, 2) Hailee Steinfeld/True Grit, 3) HELENA BONHAM CARTER/TKS, 4) Amy Adams/The Fighter, 5) Jacki Weaver/Animal Kingdom.

Comment: A category that looked all but done a few weeks ago has suddenly opened up. Leo's lead over Steinfeld has shrunk precipitously due to Leo's personal campaign for the award and what has been perceived as some awkwardness from her during the run through awards season. Consequently, the door has opened and young Ms. Steinfeld would appear to be a beneficiary. Additionally, if there is a really big King's sweep, Bonham Carter might sneak in. This is one of the categories that will actually make Oscar night have some suspense.

Best Supporting Actor: 1) Christian Bale/The Fighter, 2) GEOFFREY RUSH/TKS, 3) Mark Ruffalo/Kids Are All Right, 4) John Hawkes/Winter's Bone, 5) Jeremy Renner/The Town.

Comment: Bale is a prohibitive favorite and has been for a long time. The only shot at a disruption in this category is if "The King's Speech" is having a tsunami-like wave. That might get Rush his second Oscar...but don't hold your breath.

Best Original Screenplay: 1) THE KING'S SPEECH (David Seidler), 2) The Kids Are All Right, 3) Inception, 4) The Fighter, 5) ANOTHER YEAR.

Comment: It's Seidler's to lose at this point.

Best Adapted Screenplay: 1) The Social Network (Aaron Sorkin), 2) True Grit, 3) Toy Story 3, 4) Winter's Bone, 5) 127 HOURS.

Comment: Like Seidler, it's Sorkin's to lose.

Tomorrow we'll look at the other Oscar categories and assess where they are with a week and a half left to go before the big night.

Telluride Film #37, The OC, BAFTA and Oscar

The British Academy of Film and Television Arts named their 2011 winners two nights ago and, as you might expect, "The King's Speech" did very well. But there was a surprise or two along the way...

Here's the complete BAFTA run-down from Hollywood.com:

Best Film- The King’s Speech

Director - The Social Network - David Fincher

Leading Actor - Colin Firth - The King’s Speech

Leading Actress - Natalie Portman - Black Swan

Supporting Actor - Geoffrey Rush - The King’s Speech

Supporting Actress - Helena Bonham Carter - The King’s Speech

Adapted Screenplay- The Social Network - Aaron Sorkin

Original Screenplay - The King’s Speech - David Seidler

Animated Film - Toy Story 3 - Lee Unkrich

Outstanding British Film - The King’s Speech

Film Not In The English Language - The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo

Outstanding Debut By A British Writer, Director Or Producer - Four Lions - Chris Morris (Director/Writer)

Cinematography - True Grit - Roger Deakins

Editing - The Social Network - Angus Wall, Kirk Baxter

Production Design - Inception - Guy Hendrix Dyas, Larry Dias, Doug Mowat

Sound - Inception - Richard King, Lora Hirschberg, Gary A Rizzo, Ed Novick

Special Visual Effects - Inception - Chris Corbould, Paul Franklin, Andrew Lockley, Peter Bebb

Make Up & Hair - Alice In Wonderland - Valli O'Reilly, Paul Gooch

Original Music - The King’s Speech - Alexandre Desplat

Costume Design - Alice In Wonderland - Colleen Atwood

Short Film - Until The River Runs Red - Paul Wright, Poss Kondeatis

Short Animation - The Eagleman Stag - Michael Please

The Orange Wednesdays Rising Star Award (voted by the public) - Tom Hardy

Biggest surprise was that English director and TKS helmer Tom Hooper did NOT win Best Direction...David Fincher did for "The Social Network" in what was essentially an upset of the home team that was dominant in almost every other category.

It wasn't really a surprise that Geoffrey Rush won Supporting Actor but a bit of a surprise that Helena Bonham Carter did...even with the home field advantage she wasn't expected to win Supporting Actress.

Finally, the American Society of Cinematographers awarded its top prize a couple of nights ago to Wally Pfister for "Inception." That leads one to second guess the expected Oscar for Roger Deakins and "True Grit."

Coming tomorrow, The OC updates the Big 8 races...

The OC/How the Oscar Race Evolved

The Telluride Film Festival along with Toronto and Venice have become the unofficial start to the Oscar season each year. Consequently, the first serious attempts at Oscar prediction occur as those festivals come to an end in September.

In today's post we take a look back at what we thought would happen and contrast that with how it all came out when the nominations were announced last week. The Clearinghouse first was up on Sept. 26. And on that day, this is what we thought:

Best Picture: Already the field was pretty well established. 9 of the 10 of the eventual Best Pic nominees were on the list. Mike Leigh's "Another Year" was the film in the 7th position that eventually gave way to "Winter's Bone." "Bone"was lurking" as the 14th film on the list.

Best Director: Again, Mike Leigh and "Another Year" was on this list ( at #2) riding a wave of positive critical response that had begun with its presentation at Cannes. And Danny Boyle's "127 Hours" was at #3. But Leigh and Boyle were supplanted by The Coen Brothers for "True Grit" (who are also popularly believed to have supplanted "Inception's" Christopher Nolan at the last minute) and by Darren Aronofsky foe "Black Swan." Both The Coens and Aronofsky were lurking in the next five at #9 and #8 respectively.

Best Actress: 3 actual nominees were on the first attempt-Bening and Portman were 1-2 and Kidman was at #4. Also on that first list-Lesley Manville and Sally Hawkins. Manville and Hawkins were replaced by the actual nominations of Jennifer Lawrence and Michelle Williams. On that first pass at prediction Lawrence was at #6 and Williams was at #8.

Best Actor: 4 of the 5 eventual nominees were on the first stab at prognostication. Firth, Franco, Eisenberg, and Bridges. Robert Duvall and Mark Wahlburg (who was tied with Bridges for the #5 spot) ended up on the outside looking in. They were replaced by Javier Bardem for "Biutiful." Bardem is believed to have bumped Duvall out at the very end of the nominating process. Bardem began on 9/26 at the # 8 spot.

Best Supporting Actress: The original guess had 3 of the 5 eventual nominees. Leo, Bonham Carter and Weaver. Also on that original list were Miranda Richardson for "Made in Dagenham" and Dianne Weist for Rabbit Hole. The other two actually nominated, of course, were Hailee Steinfeld and Amy Adams. Steinfeld was first set at the #6 spot while Adams began at #9.

Best Supporting Actor: Again a 3 of 5 category as the original prediction included actual nominees Bale, Rush and Ruffalo. Also included were Andrew Garfield and Justin Timberlake from "The Social Network." Actual nominees John Hawkes ("Winter's Bone') and Jeremy Renner ("The Town") were nowhere on the original list of ten possible nominees in what was the worst category for early prediction.

Best Adapted Screenplay: 3 for 5. The first guess got "The Social Network," "Toy Story 3, " and "Winter's Bone." "Rabbit Hole" and "Love and Other Drugs" which were on that first list failed to secure nominations. "127 Hours" (at #6 originally) and "True Grit" (at #9 originally) did.

Best Original Screenplay: 5 for 5. The first prediction had them all right..."Kids," King's," "Inception," "Another Year," and "The Fighter" were all listed as nominees on the very first chart.

For the Big 8 Categories the original Clearinghouse was 33 of 45 and of the 12 that were missing 10 were considered "possible." The only total whiffs were John Hawkes and Jeremy Renner in Supporting Actor.

Finally...the Oscar Finals Ballots went in the mail on Wednesday. The consensus at this moment would be the following:

Picture: "The King's Speech"

Director: Tom Hooper/King's (although there is still a chunk of support for the notion that Fincher could still win the thing)

Actress: Natalie Portman/Swan(still some feel for Annette Bening)

Actor: Colin Firth/TKS...not much doubt

Supporting Actress: Melissa Leo/Fighter is in the lead but Hailee Steinfeld is still regarded as having a chance.
Supporting Actor: Christian Bale/Fighter...again, not much doubt

Adapted Screenplay: Sorkin/"The Social Network" a prohibitive favorite.

Original Screenplay: David Seidler/"The King's Speech" also a prohibitive favorite.

Telluride Film #37/The OC and the SAG awards

Did you hear that door slamming 36 hours ago?

It was the door closing on anyone's thoughts that "THE KING'S SPEECH" might not be your Best Picture winner on Feb. 27.

After a week that had included surprise wins for TKS at The Producer's Guild and The Director's Guild, the SAG (Screen Actor's Guild) awards were thought to be the last chance to derail the juggernaut that was building. Some experts still holding to the notion the "The Fighter" or even "The Social Network" would prevail in the SAG"s version of"Best Picture" which is their Ensemble Award.

But when they opened the envelope, the TKS train just kept right on running.

Here (directly from the SAG website) are the winners from Sundays presentations:

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role: COLIN FIRTH / King George VI - "THE KING’S SPEECH" (The Weinstein Company)

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role:NATALIE PORTMAN / Nina Sayers – “BLACK SWAN” (Fox Searchlight Pictures)

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role: CHRISTIAN BALE / Dicky Eklund – “THE FIGHTER” (Paramount Pictures and Relativity Media)

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role: MELISSA LEO / Alice Ward – “THE FIGHTER” (Paramount Pictures and Relativity Media)

Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture: THE KING’S SPEECH (The Weinstein Company)

Firth and Bale were not surprises. Portman solidified her chances as she continues to best what was thought to be her close competitor, Annette Bening. And in the Female Supporting category, Melissa Leo's win makes her the front-runner in a category that was thought to be the most fluid of the 4 individual acting categories.

With the Ensemble win, all signs now point to TKS having a big night at the Oscars. We're talking Slumdog type numbers (Slumdog won 8 Academy Awards). You have to think that TKS wins Picture, probably Director (DGA), Actor and Original Screenplay. Costume, Art Direction and Score are also likely. Unlikely are Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress, Cinematography and Sound Mixing. Leaving Film Editing as its only chance for an 8th Oscar, and that's not terribly likely either.

Who benefits from the TKS mini-sweep? "Inception," which likely ends Oscar night with the second largest total number of Oscars and "The Fighter," which will be the only film with more than one acting winner.

Who gets hurt: well...you know.."The Social Network" which increasingly looks as if it will win one Oscar for Aaron Sorkin's script and that's all.

Next time on Michael's Telluride Film Blog/The Oscar Clearinghouse...we look at how the Oscar race mutated from September to now...and also, we'll start handicapping the Oscar categories for the winners on Feb. 27.

TFF #37/Oscar Clearinghouse and the DGA

Tom Hooper won the Director's Guild of America award late last night for Best Direction in 2010 for "The King's Speech." A whole host of Oscar watchers and critics are, again, dumbfounded this morning. Many thought that David Fincher would win for "The Social Network." Mmmmm....Nope.

The howling has been at a fever pitch for a week now. Beginning with the Producer's Guild Award to TKS last week and the "lead the pack" total of 12 nominations on Tuesday morning and culminating with last night's "surprise," The King's Speech" has been on a real roll...and it has the film "intelligentsia" up in arms..."How dare they?" has been the not-so-subtle refrain. Last night's DGA award, went the implicit narrative, will "restore some sanity" to the awards season. "Fincher gets the DGA," the thinking went, "because, surely, the directors 'get' the inherent superiority of "The Social Network." And that will also assure that the march of TKS to a Best Picture Oscar has been tempered and it's back to a real race...

And then, Boom!

A lot of people this week have been moaning that it's "Crash" beats "Brokeback" all over again...well...maybe.

But I'd submit the following:

1) I've been saying that TSN has been over-rated from the get go...I'd argue that it's overwhelming success with critics groups this past few months is at least as much a result of group-think and, really, a fear by some critics of an astonishing level of vitriol directed at any of them who dared to suggest that it might not actually be the year's best film.

2) As has been said in a lot of places, TSN certainly has a stronger appeal generationally to a younger demographic, and even older critics want to be regarded as hip...doesn't mean it's actually the best film or that it will win the Oscar...or should.

3) The "Crash/Brokeback" comparison stems, at least in part from the perception that the"Academy" is old and stodgy and scared of anything new or "controversial" and just doesn't "get it" which might explain why "Crash" won and probably does. But TSN "controversial"? Not really. And this week started with the PGA and ended with the DGA...NOT the Academy...I contend you can't use their results to paint that picture of the Academy..."the DGA doesn't get it?" Really???

4) Harvey Weinstein makes a salient point this week when he talks about "feeling" a movie...TSN celebrates its emotional distance...it's central to the film...how can anyone be surprised that that might not resonate with feeling, non-automatonic human beings?

5) Then there's this, maybe the majority of critics are just plain wrong...and make no mistake, I'm almost always on the side of critics...I live in a part of the world wherein the "celebration of film" is dwarfed by "what's on at the movies." Admittedly, I'm on the other side of the "generational" analysis mentioned above in point #2...and, further, I'm not even saying "The King's Speech" IS the year's Best Picture...I'd be inclined to vote for "True Grit." But, I have been pleased that the hubris of so many who had decided that it was all over months ago has been soundly shaken this past week.

"The King's Speech" opened (finally) in my town Friday night...of course, I saw it in September at Telluride...but I'm pleased to tell you that I'm going to go see it again tonight. I will be happy when it wins the Oscar for Best Picture in a month.

Oscar 83 and Telluride Film #37/The Oscar Clearinghouse

Telluride #37 with 32 Oscar nominations. The Clearinghouse gets 85 out 105 in 21 categories.

TFF #37 films with Oscar Noms:

THE KING'S SPEECH-12

127 HOURS-6

BLACK SWAN-5

BIUTIFUL-2

ANOTHER YEAR-1

THE WAY BACK-1

INSIDE JOB-1

INCENDIES-1

THE ILLUSIONIST-1

POSTER GIRL-1

GOD OF LOVE-1

THE KING'S SPEECH over-performed getting 12 nominations instead of the anticipated 9. True Grit hit its expected 10. BLACK SWAN (5 instead of the expected 7), 127 HOURS (6 instead of 7)and Inception (8 instead of 10) underperformed.

By category, here's how The Clearinghouse did.

Picture: Swan, Fighter, Inception, Kids, TKS, 127, TSN, TS3, True and Winter's. Clearinghouse goes 10 for 10. One of 4 categories that we hit 100% .

Director: 4 of 5. Aronofsky, Russell, Hooper, Fincher and The Coens. Coens a small surprise. Nolan's exclusion a BIG SURPRISE. Though we had The Coens as the first likely suspects if one of the predicted five didn't make the cut. I just never thought it would be Nolan that got the short end.

Actress: 5 of 5. Bening, Kidman, Lawrence, Portman, Williams. No Manville, though...sad face.

Actor: 4 of 5. Bardem, Bridges, Eisenberg, Firth, and Franco. Bardem in and Duvall out...again, we had Bardem as a possible spoiler.

Supporting Actress: 4 0f 5. Adams, Bonham Carter, Leo, Steinfeld, Weaver. In the last spot-Weaver. We had it as a dead heat with Mila Kunis.

Supporting Actor: 4 of 5. Bale, Hawkes, Renner, Ruffalo, and Rush. Hawkes in for Garfield. Yes!

Adapted Screenplay: 5 of 5. 127, TSN, TS3, True, Winter's

Original Screenplay: 5 of 5. Another Year (yea!), Fighter, Inception, Kids, TKS. A notoriously difficult pair of categories and The Clearinghouse got all 10 writing nominees. A little smug.

Animated: 3 of 3. Dragon, TS3 and THE ILLUSIONIST. Again...smug.

Foreign: 4 of 5. Biutiful, Dogtooth, In a Better World, Incendies, Outside the Law. Law in and S. Africa's "Life, Above All" out.

Doc: 2 of 5. One of our two worst categories. Exit thru the Gift Shop, Gasland, INSIDE JOB, Resterpo, Waste Land. The Big stunner is the absence of "Waiting for Superman."

Art Direction: 4 of 5. Alice, Harry, Inception, TKS, True. Harry for "Shutter Island"..though not really a surprise.

Cinematography: 4 of 5. Swan, Inception, TKS, TSN, True. TKS for 127 Hours...yes, that's a surprise.

Costume: 4 of 5. Alice, I am Love, TKS, Tempest, True. I am Love in for Black Swan...yes, also a surprise. One of the biggest of the day.

Film Editing: 4 of 5. Swan, Fighter, TKS, 127, TSN. King's Speech in, Inception out. A stunner and one of four or five "signs" that The King's Speech is actually the favorite to win Best Picture now. More on the "signs" below.

Makeup: 1 of 3. Barney's Version, The Way Back, The Wolfman. Barney and way Back in Alice and True Grit out. The OC was not good here, but also not awful. We had Barney and The Way Back listed as possible spoilers.

Original Score: 4 of 5. Dragon, Inception, TKS, 127, TSN. 127 Hours in and Never Let Me Go out. We did have 127 Hours listed as a possible.

Original Song: 3 of 4. Country Strong, Tangled, 127, TS3. Weirdly only 4 nominees. Country Strong in and Burlesque and Superman out.

Sound Edit: 4 of 5. Inception, TS3, Tron, True, Unstoppable. Unstop in for 127. We had Unstop as a possible.

Sound Mix: 3 of 5. Inception, TKS, Salt, TSN, True. Salt and King's in for Swan and Tron. Salt is a stunner and another "sign" that TKS may be the frontrunner.

Visual FX: 4 of 5. Alice, Harry, Hereafter, Inception, Iron Man 2. Hereafter stuns Tron.

Signs that THE KING'S SPEECH might be your frontrunner...Most nominations, Nominated for Film Editing (almost always a necessity for a film to win Best Picture is an accompanying nomination in Editing), Cinematography and SOUND MIXING??? Really????

Conventional (quick) wisdom is that The King's Speech wins Best Picture and several others and The Social Network's Fincher wins director.

Coming soon to the OC...we handicap the field of nominees for your Oscar winners.

The Oscar Clearinghouse #7 Re-Post. Telluride Film and the 83rd Academy Awards

Because of some issues I have decided to re-post the Clearinghouse from this morning.

It's been four and a half months since the Telluride Film Festival concluded and after the long awards season march the Oscar nominations will be announced tomorrow morning. Here is the latest compilation of Oscar prognosticator's wisdom with our focus on the films that played as a part of the Telluride Film Festival in 2010. Categories have been limited to the appropriate number of nominees and three possible spoilers. TFF #37 films listed in CAPS AND BOLD.

Information collated from: Rope of Silicon, Incontention.com, Scott Feinberg, Dave Karger at Entertainment Weekly, The Gold Derby, Awards Daily, Film Misery, The Gurus of Gold from Movie City News, The Awards Circuit and Film Experience.

Best Picture: 8 films seem like locks: THE KING'S SPEECH, BLACK SWAN, The Social Network, The Fighter, The Kids Are All Right, Toy Story 3, Inception and True Grit. 127 HOURS has actually solidified its chances in the last couple of weeks making it a probable nominee. It looks like that the last spot is between The Town and Winter's Bone with Bone having the inside track. The only other films with a prayer of cracking the Ten Nominees are Blue Valentine and ANOTHER YEAR, but it's the slimmest of chances.
If I had a ballot: See my top ten below. Suffice it to say (as I have been) that "The Social Network," "Toy Story 3," and "The Kids Are All Right" are over-rated.

Best Director: David Fincher/The Social Network and David O. Russell/The Fighter appear to be locks with TOM HOOPER/THE KING'S SPEECH, DARREN ARONOFSKY/BLACK SWAN and Christopher Nolan/Inception looking very much like the other three nominees. If there is a surprise it would be (In order of likelihood) The Coen Brothers/True Grit, DANNY BOYLE/127 HOURS or MIKE LEIGH/ANOTHER YEAR.
If I had a ballot: Coens in and Russell OR Fincher out.

Best Actress: NATALIE PORTMAN/BLACK SWAN and Annette Bening/The Kids Are All Right have been locks for months. Jennifer Lawrence/Winter's Bone appears to have moved into that status as of the last two weeks. The other two spots look to go Nicole Kidman/Rabbit Hole and Michelle Williams/Blue Valentine. Three women who could intrude (in order of their chances) are: LESLEY MANVILLE/ANOTHER YEAR, Julianne Moore/The Kids Are All Right or a late charging Hilary Swank/Conviction.
If I had a ballot: Don't know that I'd do much different here...maybe move Manville to supporting, but that category is already filled with great work.

Best Actor: Locks: COLIN FIRTH/THE KING'S SPEECH, JAMES FRANCO/127 HOURS. Very Likely the other three are: Robert Duvall/Get Low, Jeff Bridges/True Grit and Jesse Eisenberg/The Social Network. Realistically, if a surprise occurs it would be Ryan Gosling/Blue Valentine, JAVIER BARDEM/BIUTIFUL or Mark Wahlberg/The Fighter.
If I had a ballot: Eisenberg out for Leonardo DiCaprio in "Shutter Island."

Supporting Actress: (Still the most intriguing category) Two locks are Melissa Leo/The Fighter and HELENA BONHAM CARTER/THE KING'S SPEECH. Near locks are Amy Adams/The Fighter and Hailee Steinfeld/True Grit (Steinfeld would be a lock, but she's getting shaded into the Best Actress category by a couple of Oscar predictors...Hmmmm). And the last spot is an arm wrestling match between Jacki Weaver/Animal Kingdom and MILA KUNIS/BLACK SWAN (my bet is on Kunis). Only two other women might have a shot at a nomination: Miranda Richardson/Made in Dagenham and Dianne Weist/Rabbit Hole.
If I had a ballot: I'm OK here if Kunis gets in.

Supporting Actor: Three men seem to have nominations assured. They are Christian Bale/The Fighter, GEOFFREY RUSH/THE KING'S SPEECH and Mark Ruffalo/The Kids Are All Right. The last two spots look to be comfortably in the hands of Andrew Garfield/The Social Network and Jeremy Renner/The Town. Those that might sneak in are: John Hawkes/Winter's Bone, Sam Rockwell/Conviction or Matt Damon/True Grit.
If I had a ballot: Hawkes in for Renner, Ruffalo or Garfield. And I would add that I'd be voting for both Ed Harris and Colin Farrell from THE WAY BACK.

Adapted Screenplay: Locks: Aaron Sorkin/The Social Network, Michael Arndt/Toy Story 3, Debra Granik & Anne Rosellini/Winter's Bone. The other two nominees would appear to be Joel & Ethan Coen/True Grit and DANNY BOYLE & SIMON BEAUFOY/127 HOURS. The three most likely spoilers are: Ben Affleck, Peter Craig & Aaron Stockard/The Town. David Lindsay-Abaire/Rabbit Hole and Roman Polanski & Robert Harris/The Ghost Writer.
If I had a ballot: Let this category stand.

Original Screenplay: Locks are: DAVID SEIDLER/THE KING'S SPEECH, Christopher Nolan/Inception and Lisa Cholodenko & Stuart Blumberg/The Kids Are All Right. Also likely nominees are: Scott Silver, Paul Tamasy & Eric Johnson/The Fighter and MIKE LEIGH/ANOTHER YEAR. Three which could surprise are: Derek Cianfrance, Joey Curits & Cami Delavigne/Blue Valentine, MARK HEYMAN, ANDRES HEINZ & JOHN J. MC LAUGHLIN/BLACK SWAN, or Chris Provenzano & C. Gaby Mitchell/Get Low. Personally, I think Black Swan gets in instead of The Fighter and if I had a ballot I would certainly vote it in over "The Kids Are All Right."

Animated Film: Locks: Toy Story 3 and How to Train Your Dragon. Probable: THE ILLUSIONIST. Possible spoilers: Tangled, Despicable Me, Megamind. (Parenthetical comment: What a switch in the last 2 weeks as "The Illusionist" has surged ahead of "Tangled" to look like the third nominee. 14 days ago, "Tangled" looked like a cinch.)

Foreign Film: Locks: Nada. Probable: INCENDIES/CANADA, BIUTIFUL/MEXICO, In a Better World/Denmark, Life, Above All/South Africa and Dogtooth/Greece. Possible spoilers...any of the other 4 films still alive after the Academy cut the foreign list down to 9. (from Japan, Sweden, Spain and Algeria). The stunner was the exclusion of France's "OF GODS AND MEN."
Documentary: Only Lock: INSIDE JOB. Other probable nominees: Waiting for Superman, The Tillman Story, Resterpo and Client 9. Possible spoilers: The Waste Land, Exit Through the Gift Shop and The Lottery.

Film Editing: Locks: Inception, The Social Network, The Fighter. Likely: BLACK SWAN and 127 HOURS. Could Slide in: THE KING'S SPEECH, Shutter Island, True Grit.

Cinematography: Locks: Inception and True Grit. Likely: BLACK SWAN, The Social Network and 127 HOURS. Spoilers: Shutter Island, Harry Potter/Deathly Hallows or THE KING'S SPEECH.

Art Direction: Locks: Alice in Wonderland, Inception and THE KING'S SPEECH. Probable nominees: Shutter Island and True Grit. Possible spoilers: Tron:Legacy and Harry Potter/Deathly Hallows or THE WAY BACK.

Original Score: Locks: Inception is the only lock in this category. Probable nominees are: The Social Network, How to Train Your Dragon, THE KING'S SPEECH and NEVER LET ME GO. Possible spoilers: 127 HOURS, The Ghost Writer and True Grit.

Original Song: Locks: "I See the Light"/Tangled, "Shine"/Waiting for Superman, "We Belong Together"/Toy Story 3, and "You Haven't Seen the Last of Me"/Burlesque. The other likely nominee is "IF I RISE"/127 HOURS. Possible spoilers: "Coming Home"/Country Strong, "Despicable Me"/Despicable Me or "CHASON ILLUSIONIST"/THE ILLUSIONIST.

Costuming: Locks: Alice in Wonderland and THE KING'S SPEECH. Probable nominees: BLACK SWAN, True Grit, The Tempest. Spoilers: Burlesque, Harry Potter/Deathly Hallows, Made in Dagenham.

Sound Editing: Inception is the only lock. Probable nominees are: 127 HOURS, Tron:Legacy, True Grit and Toy Story 3. Potential spoilers: How to Train Your Dragon, Iron Man 2 or Unstoppable.

Sound Mixing: Again, Inception is the only lock. Probable nominees are: BLACK SWAN, True Grit, The Social Network and Tron:Legacy. Potential surprises: Unstoppable, Iron Man 2 or Toy Story 3.

Makeup (3 noms only): Locks: Alice in Wonderland and The Wolfman. Other likely nominee: True Grit. Spoilers: THE WAY BACK, Jonah Hex, Barney's Version.

Visual Effects: Locks: Inception and Tron:Legacy. Likely nominees: Alice in Wonderland, Harry Potter/Deathly Hallows, and Iron Man 2. Potential spoilers: Scott Pilgrim or Hereafter.

And, of course, there will be nominations for short form live action, animation and documentary.

The Breakdown: If the Clearinghouse nails it Telluride #37 films earn 30 nominations with 11 more potentially in the mix as spoilers.

The most nominated film(s) will be (according to The Clearinghouse): True Grit and Inception with 10 each (Grit is in play in four other categories and so could end up being the most nominated on its own). The rest of the multiple nominees look like this (with additional possible nominations in parenthesis):
10 nominations: True Grit (4), Inception (0)
9 nominations: THE KING'S SPEECH (2), The Social Network (0)
8 nominations: BLACK SWAN (2)
7 nominations: 127 HOURS (2), The Fighter (1)
4 nominations: The Kids Are All Right (1), Toy Story 3 (1), Alice in Wonderland (0)

Other TFF #37 films earning nominations: ANOTHER YEAR-1, BIUTIFUL-1, INCENDIES-1, NEVER LET ME GO-1, THE ILLUSIONIST-1, INSIDE JOB-1.

And finally, my top ten films for 2010...if I was voting, this would be my Best Picture ballot:
10) The Fighter
9) THE ILLUSIONIST
8) THE WAY BACK
7) Shutter Island
6) 127 HOURS
5) ANOTHER YEAR
4) BLACK SWAN
3) Inception
2) THE KING'S SPEECH
1) True Grit

Back tomorrow with the breakdown and analysis of what the nominations have been....

Telluride Film and The PGA/The Oscar Clearinghouse

PRODUCER'S GUILD PRODUCES A STUNNER!!!

Last night the Producers Guild of America awarded its awards for motion picture achievement and threw a big monkey wrench into the stately march of "The Social Network" to Oscar glory as the producers named producers Emile Sherman and Gareth Unwin of "THE KING'S SPEECH" the winner of its "Producer of the Year" award.

This morning all of the Oscar handicappers are abuzz with whether or to what extent this changes the race. Personally, I don't know if this portends the downfall of "The Social Network" (hope so, because I've been saying for months that it has been hugely over-rated), but I do know that it just made the next month a whole lot more interesting and that a race that many Oscar prognosticator's had asserted was done...isn't.

Also winning last night were "Toy Story 3" as animated film and "Waiting for Superman" as documentary.

Tomorrow The Oscar Clearinghouse will be up with its last evaluation of the Oscar race before the nominations are announced on Tuesday morning. Tuesday we'll post the breakdown of nominees and assess Telluride #37's impact on this year's Oscar race.

Stay tuned. This just got a whole lot more fun.

The Oscar Clearinghouse #7 (Telluride Film)- FINAL Pre-Nomination Edition

It's been four and a half months since the Telluride Film Festival concluded and after the long awards season march the Oscar nominations will be announced tomorrow morning. Here is the latest compilation of Oscar prognosticator's wisdom with our focus on the films that played as a part of the Telluride Film Festival in 2010. Categories have been limited to the appropriate number of nominees and three possible spoilers. TFF #37 films listed in CAPS AND BOLD.

Information collated from: Rope of Silicon, Incontention.com, Scott Feinberg, Dave Karger at Entertainment Weekly, The Gold Derby, Awards Daily, Film Misery, The Gurus of Gold from Movie City News, The Awards Circuit and Film Experience.

Best Picture: 8 films seem like locks: THE KING'S SPEECH, BLACK SWAN, The Social Network, The Fighter, The Kids Are All Right, Toy Story 3, Inception and True Grit. 127 HOURS has actually solidified its chances in the last couple of weeks making it a probable nominee. It looks like that the last spot is between The Town and Winter's Bone with Bone having the inside track. The only other films with a prayer of cracking the Ten Nominees are Blue Valentine and ANOTHER YEAR, but it's the slimmest of chances.

If I had a ballot: See my top ten below. Suffice it to say (as I have been) that "The Social Network," "Toy Story 3," and "The Kids Are All Right" are over-rated.

Best Director: David Fincher/The Social Network and David O. Russell/The Fighter appear to be locks with TOM HOOPER/THE KING'S SPEECH, DARREN ARONOFSKY/BLACK SWAN and Christopher Nolan/Inception looking very much like the other three nominees. If there is a surprise it would be (In order of likelihood) The Coen Brothers/True Grit, DANNY BOYLE/127 HOURS or MIKE LEIGH/ANOTHER YEAR.

If I had a ballot: Coens in and Russell OR Fincher out.

Best Actress: NATALIE PORTMAN/BLACK SWAN and Annette Bening/The Kids Are All Right have been locks for months. Jennifer Lawrence/Winter's Bone appears to have moved into that status as of the last two weeks. The other two spots look to go Nicole Kidman/Rabbit Hole and Michelle Williams/Blue Valentine. Three women who could intrude (in order of their chances) are: LESLEY MANVILLE/ANOTHER YEAR, Julianne Moore/The Kids Are All Right or a late charging Hilary Swank/Conviction.

If I had a ballot: Don't know that I'd do much different here...maybe move Manville to supporting, but that category is already filled with great work.

Best Actor: Locks: COLIN FIRTH/THE KING'S SPEECH, JAMES FRANCO/127 HOURS. Very Likely the other three are: Robert Duvall/Get Low, Jeff Bridges/True Grit and Jesse Eisenberg/The Social Network. Realistically, if a surprise occurs it would be Ryan Gosling/Blue Valentine, JAVIER BARDEM/BIUTIFUL or Mark Wahlberg/The Fighter.

If I had a ballot: Eisenberg out for Leonardo DiCaprio in "Shutter Island."

Supporting Actress: (Still the most intriguing category) Two locks are Melissa Leo/The Fighter and HELENA BONHAM CARTER/THE KING'S SPEECH. Near locks are Amy Adams/The Fighter and Hailee Steinfeld/True Grit (Steinfeld would be a lock, but she's getting shaded into the Best Actress category by a couple of Oscar predictors...Hmmmm). And the last spot is an arm wrestling match between Jacki Weaver/Animal Kingdom and MILA KUNIS/BLACK SWAN (my bet is on Kunis). Only two other women might have a shot at a nomination: Miranda Richardson/Made in Dagenham and Dianne Weist/Rabbit Hole.

If I had a ballot: I'm OK here if Kunis gets in.

Supporting Actor: Three men seem to have nominations assured. They are Christian Bale/The Fighter, GEOFFREY RUSH/THE KING'S SPEECH and Mark Ruffalo/The Kids Are All Right. The last two spots look to be comfortably in the hands of Andrew Garfield/The Social Network and Jeremy Renner/The Town. Those that might sneak in are: John Hawkes/Winter's Bone, Sam Rockwell/Conviction or Matt Damon/True Grit.

If I had a ballot: Hawkes in for Renner, Ruffalo or Garfield. And I would add that I'd be voting for both Ed Harris and Colin Farrell from THE WAY BACK.

Adapted Screenplay: Locks: Aaron Sorkin/The Social Network, Michael Arndt/Toy Story 3, Debra Granik & Anne Rosellini/Winter's Bone. The other two nominees would appear to be Joel & Ethan Coen/True Grit and DANNY BOYLE & SIMON BEAUFOY/127 HOURS. The three most likely spoilers are: Ben Affleck, Peter Craig & Aaron Stockard/The Town. David Lindsay-Abaire/Rabbit Hole and Roman Polanski & Robert Harris/The Ghost Writer.

If I had a ballot: Let this category stand.

Original Screenplay: Locks are: DAVID SEIDLER/THE KING'S SPEECH, Christopher Nolan/Inception and Lisa Cholodenko & Stuart Blumberg/The Kids Are All Right. Also likely nominees are: Scott Silver, Paul Tamasy & Eric Johnson/The Fighter and MIKE LEIGH/ANOTHER YEAR. Three which could surprise are: Derek Cianfrance, Joey Curits & Cami Delavigne/Blue Valentine, MARK HEYMAN, ANDRES HEINZ & JOHN J. MC LAUGHLIN/BLACK SWAN, or Chris Provenzano & C. Gaby Mitchell/Get Low. Personally, I think Black Swan gets in instead of The Fighter and if I had a ballot I would certainly vote it in over "The Kids Are All Right."

Animated Film: Locks: Toy Story 3 and How to Train Your Dragon. Probable: THE ILLUSIONIST. Possible spoilers: Tangled, Despicable Me, Megamind. (Parenthetical comment: What a switch in the last 2 weeks as "The Illusionist" has surged ahead of "Tangled" to look like the third nominee. 14 days ago, "Tangled" looked like a cinch.)

Foreign Film: Locks: Nada. Probable: INCENDIES/CANADA, BIUTIFUL/MEXICO, In a Better World/Denmark, Life, Above All/South Africa and Dogtooth/Greece. Possible spoilers...any of the other 4 films still alive after the Academy cut the foreign list down to 9. (from Japan, Sweden, Spain and Algeria). The stunner was the exclusion of France's "OF GODS AND MEN."

Documentary: Only Lock: INSIDE JOB. Other probable nominees: Waiting for Superman, The Tillman Story, Resterpo and Client 9. Possible spoilers: The Waste Land, Exit Through the Gift Shop and The Lottery.

Film Editing: Locks: Inception, The Social Network, The Fighter. Likely: BLACK SWAN and 127 HOURS. Could Slide in: THE KING'S SPEECH, Shutter Island, True Grit.

Cinematography: Locks: Inception and True Grit. Likely: BLACK SWAN, The Social Network and 127 HOURS. Spoilers: Shutter Island, Harry Potter/Deathly Hallows or THE KING'S SPEECH.

Art Direction: Locks: Alice in Wonderland, Inception and THE KING'S SPEECH. Probable nominees: Shutter Island and True Grit. Possible spoilers: Tron:Legacy and Harry Potter/Deathly Hallows or THE WAY BACK.

Original Score: Locks: Inception is the only lock in this category. Probable nominees are: The Social Network, How to Train Your Dragon, THE KING'S SPEECH and NEVER LET ME GO. Possible spoilers: 127 HOURS, The Ghost Writer and True Grit.

Original Song: Locks: "I See the Light"/Tangled, "Shine"/Waiting for Superman, "We Belong Together"/Toy Story 3, and "You Haven't Seen the Last of Me"/Burlesque. The other likely nominee is "IF I RISE"/127 HOURS. Possible spoilers: "Coming Home"/Country Strong, "Despicable Me"/Despicable Me or "CHASON ILLUSIONIST"/THE ILLUSIONIST.

Costuming: Locks: Alice in Wonderland and THE KING'S SPEECH. Probable nominees: BLACK SWAN, True Grit, The Tempest. Spoilers: Burlesque, Harry Potter/Deathly Hallows, Made in Dagenham.

Sound Editing: Inception is the only lock. Probable nominees are: 127 HOURS, Tron:Legacy, True Grit and Toy Story 3. Potential spoilers: How to Train Your Dragon, Iron Man 2 or Unstoppable.

Sound Mixing: Again, Inception is the only lock. Probable nominees are: BLACK SWAN, True Grit, The Social Network and Tron:Legacy. Potential surprises: Unstoppable, Iron Man 2 or Toy Story 3.

Makeup (3 noms only): Locks: Alice in Wonderland and The Wolfman. Other likely nominee: True Grit. Spoilers: THE WAY BACK, Jonah Hex, Barney's Version.

Visual Effects: Locks: Inception and Tron:Legacy. Likely nominees: Alice in Wonderland, Harry Potter/Deathly Hallows, and Iron Man 2. Potential spoilers: Scott Pilgrim or Hereafter.

And, of course, there will be nominations for short form live action, animation and documentary.

The Breakdown: If the Clearinghouse nails it Telluride #37 films earn 30 nominations with 11 more potentially in the mix as spoilers.

The most nominated film(s) will be (according to The Clearinghouse): True Grit and Inception with 10 each (Grit is in play in four other categories and so could end up being the most nominated on its own). The rest of the multiple nominees look like this (with additional possible nominations in parenthesis):

10 nominations: True Grit (4), Inception (0)

9 nominations: THE KING'S SPEECH (2), The Social Network (0)

8 nominations: BLACK SWAN (2)

7 nominations: 127 HOURS (2), The Fighter (1)

4 nominations: The Kids Are All Right (1), Toy Story 3 (1), Alice in Wonderland (0)

Other TFF #37 films earning nominations: ANOTHER YEAR-1, BIUTIFUL-1, INCENDIES-1, NEVER LET ME GO-1, THE ILLUSIONIST-1, INSIDE JOB-1.

And finally, my top ten films for 2010...if I was voting, this would be my Best Picture ballot:

10) The Fighter

9) THE ILLUSIONIST

8) THE WAY BACK

7) Shutter Island

6) 127 HOURS

5) ANOTHER YEAR

4) BLACK SWAN

3) Inception

2) THE KING'S SPEECH

1) True Grit

Back tomorrow with the breakdown and analysis of what the nominations have been....