MTFB Oscar Update: Best Picture and More / Oscar Thoughts / Extended Trailer for Salvatore / Visitations: Women Talking, Bardo and Sr.

MTFB OSCAR UPDATE: BEST PICTURE AND MORE

Here's the last update for these major categories prior to final predictions that will post on the Sunday morning of the Oscars (March 12th).  A film's previous ranking from two weeks ago is indicated to the right in parentheses. TFF films are indicated in Bold.

 BEST PICTURE

1) Everything Everywhere All at Once (1)

2) The Banshees of Inisherin (3)

3) The Fabelmans (2)

4) Top Gun: Maverick (5)

5) All Quiet on the Western Front (7)

6) TAR (5)

7) Elvis (6)

8) Triangle of Sadness (8)

9) Avatar: The Way of Water (9)

10) Women Talking (10)

BEST DIRECTION

1) Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert/Everything Everywhere All at Once (1)

2) Steven Spielberg/The Fabelmans (2)

3) Todd Field/TAR (3)

4) Martin McDonagh/The Bnashees of Inisherin (4)

5) Ruben Ostlund/Triangle of Sadness (5)

BEST ACTRESS

1) Cate Blanchett/TAR (1)

2) Michelle Yeoh/Everything Everywhere All at Once (2)

3) Andrea Riseborough/To Leslie (5)

4) Michelle Williams/The Fabelmans (3)

5) Ana de Armas/Blonde (4)

BEST ACTOR

1) Austin Butler/Elvis (2)

2) Brendan Fraser/The Whale (1)

3) Colin Farrell/The Banshees of Inisherin (3)

4) Bill Nighy/Living (4)

5) Paul Mescal/Aftersun (5)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1) Kerry Condon/The Banshees of Inisherin (2)

2) Jamie Lee Curtis/Everything Everywhere All at Once (3)

3) Angela Bassett/Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (1)

4) Stephanie Hsu/Everything Everywhere All at Once (4)

5) Hong Chau/The Whale (5)

BEST SUPPORTNG ACTOR

1) Ke Huy Quan/Everything Everywhere All at Once (1)

2) Brendan Gleeson/The Banshees of Inisherin (2)

3) Barry Koeghan/The Banshees of Inisherin (4)

4) Judd Hirsch/The Fabelmans (3)

5) Bryan Tyree Henry/Causeway (5)

OSCAR THOUGHTS

The BAFTA win for Austin Butler seemed to have lifted him over Brendan Fraser in the Best Actor race and BAFTA also seemed to solidify Cate Blanchett's position over Michelle Yeoh, then the SGA's happened last night and it's all back up in the air again.  

DGA, PGA  and SAG Ensemble wins for Everything Everywhere All at Once have solidified its position for Best Picture and Best Direction. 

PGA- TFF nominees were wiped out across the board.  TAR, Marcel the Shell with Shoes On and Retrograde were the only TFF films nominated and none won.  You could make a bit of a case for Navalny's PGA win for Documentary being TFF-adjacent as it screened prior to the fest's start at Elk Park.  Also, TFF touches just a bit on Everything Everywhere All at Once with the special screening of Crouching Tiger Hidden Dragon and the appearance at the fest of Michelle Yeoh.

SAG- Everything Everywhere won everything everywhere.  Ensemble, Actress (Yeoh), Supporting Actress (Curtis) and Supporting Actor (Quan).  Brendan Fraser gained back some ground with his SAG win over Austin Butler.  That goes back to being a tight race.  Yeoh's win did the same in Best Actress with Blanchett and Jamie Lee Curtis's win throws Supporting Actress into a real tizzy.  

Quan's win means he is locked and the Ensemble prize seems to lock Everything Everywhere for Best Picture.  EEAAO could end up with six Oscars in two weeks time.

this next two weeks are going to be crazy.

EXTENDED TRAILER FOR SALVATORE

Sony Pictures Classics released an extended trailer this week for Luca Guadagnino's documentary Salvatore: Shoemaker of Dreams.  The film has already been released.

VISITATIONS

Women Talking: Sarah Polley with Indiewire and Ben Whishaw with The Standard.

Sr. : Chris Smith with The National Board of Review.

Bardo: Alejandro Inarritu and Darius Khondji with Indiewire.

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com

TWITTER @TheMTFB OR @Gort2 

MTFB's Facebook Page

MTFB is published on Mondays and Thursdays

MTFB Oscar Update / More on the Passing of Tom Luddy / Visitations: Sarah Polley on Women Talking

MTFB OSCAR UPDATE

Here's a second pass at predicting Visual Effects, Sound and the Shorts categories   Previous rankings are to the right of each film in parentheses.  TFF films are in Bold.

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

1) Avatar: The Way of Water (1)

2) Top Gun: Maverick (2)

3) All Quiet on the Western Front (3)

4) The Batman (4)

5) Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (5)

BEST SOUND

1) Top Gun: Maverick (1)

2) Elvis (2)

3) All Quiet on the Western Front (3)

4) Avatar: The Way of Water (4)

5)The Batman (5)

BEST ANIMATED SHORT

1) The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse (1)

2) An Ostrich Told Me the World Is Fake... (2)

3) The Flying Sailor (3)

4) My Year of Dicks (4)

5) Ice Merchants (5)

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT

1) The Martha Mitchell Effect (3)

2) How Do You Measure a Year? (1)

3) Stranger at the Gate (4)

4) The Elephant Whisperers (2)

5) Haulout (5)

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT

1) Le Pupille (1)

2) An Irish Goodbye (2)

3) The Red Suitcase (3)

4) The Night ride (5)

5) Ivalu (4)

MORE ON THE PASSING OF TOM LUDDY

On Tuesday The Guardian posted an incredible homage to TFF co-founder, the late Tom Luddy.  It's notable for the sheer number of people included and the reverence that is reveled for Luddy.  Among those included in the memorials are: Paul Schrader, Laurie Anderson, Errol Morris, Tilda Swinton, Salman Rushdie, Alice Waters and Werner Herzog.

Take a look at the post.  It is incredible.

VISITATIONS

Women Talking: Sarah Polley with The Hollywood Reporter.

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com

TWITTER @TheMTFB OR @Gort2 

MTFB's Facebook Page

MTFB is published on Mondays and Thursdays

MTFB Oscar Update / BAFTA Winners / Directors Guild Winners / Visitations: Polley and Poitras

MTFB OSCAR UPDATE

I'm continuing my first attempts at predicting what will win Oscars on the night of March 12th.  Today's  updated categories: International, Animated and Documentary Features as well as Production Design, Costume and Makeup/Hair.  Films are ranked in order of likelihood to win with their previous ranking in parentheses. I have highlighted TFF nominees in Bold.

INTERNATIONAL FEATURE

1) All Quiet on the Western Front (1)

2) Argentina 1985 (2)

3) Close (3)

4) EO (4)

5) The Quiet Girl (5)

ANIMANTED FEATURE

1) GDT's Pinocchio (1)

2) Marcel the Shell with Shoes On (2)

3) Puss in Boots: The Last Wish (3)

4) Turning Red (4)

5) The Sea Beast (5)

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

1) Fire of Love (4)

2) Navalny (3)

3) All the Beauty and the Bloodshed (1)

4) All That Breathes (2)

5) The House of Splinters (5)

PRODUCTION DESIGN

1) Elvis (1)

2) Babylon (2)

3) All Quiet on the Western Front (4)

4) Avatar: The Way of Water (3)

5) The Fabelmans (5)

COSTUME DESIGN

1) Elvis (1)

2) Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (2)

3) Babylon (3)

4) Everything Everywhere All at Once (4)

5) Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris (5)

MAKEUP/HAIR

1) Elvis (1)

2) The Whale (2)

3) All Quiet on the Western Front (4)

4) The Batman (3)

5) Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (5)

BAFTA WINNERS

The British Academy of Film and Television Arts (BAFTA) named its "Best of" for 2022 last night and Edward Berger's All Quiet on the Western Front was the big winner picking up seven trophies including Best Film and Direction.

TFF Films that picked up hardware were:

Cate Blanchett winning Best Actress for TAR

Charlotte Wells for Best Debut for a British Writer, Director or Producer for Aftersun

TFF adjacent documentary (it was screened in Elk Park on the Wednesday night prior to TFF beginning) Navalny was named Best Documentary.

The complete BAFTA winners list is here.

DIRECTOR GUILD WINNERS

The DGA named Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert Best Director for a Feature Film for Everything Everywhere All at Once besting, among others Todd Field/TAR who was the only DGA nominee for a Feature Film from TFF.

From TFF, Charlotte Wells win Best First Feature for Aftersun.

The Directors Guild list of winners is linked here.

VISITATIONS

WOMEN TALKING: Sarah Polley at Deadline.com.

ALL THE BEAUTY AND THE BLOODSHED: Laura Poitras at NBR.

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com

TWITTER @TheMTFB OR @Gort2 

MTFB's Facebook Page

MTFB is published on Mondays and Thursdays

Tom Luddy 1943-2023 / MTFB Oscar Update: Screenplays and More / Detective Work / Visitations: Claire Foy of Women Talking

TOM LUDDY 1943-2023

(photo via Indiewire)

As we found out on Valentine's Day, Telluride Film Festival co-founder Tom Luddy died on Feb. 13th  in California.  I posted the Fest's press release on Tuesday in a special MTFB post.  You can see that here. 

Luddy's passing was duly noted by many film industry outlets:

Variety

The Hollywood Reporter

Deadline

Indiewire

The Wrap

The Los Angeles Times

 MTFB OSCAR UPDATE:SCREENPLAYS AND MORE

Here's the first update of my current predictions for what will win Oscars in the Screenplay categories as well as Score, Song, Cinematography and Editing.  Previous rank for each film is in parentheses to the right and TFF films are in Bold.

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1) Women Talking (1)

2) All Quiet on the Western Front (2)

3) Glass Onion (4)

4) Living (3)

5) Top Gun: Maverick (5)

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1) The Banshees of Inisherin (2)

2) Everything Everywhere All at Once (1)

3) TAR (4)

4) The Fabelmans (3)

5) Triangle of Sadness (5)

SCORE

1) Babylon (1)

2) The Fabelmans (2)

3) All Quiet on the Western Front (3)

4) The Banshees of Inisherin (4)

5) Everything Everywhere All at Once (5)

SONG

1) Naatu Naatu/RRR (1)

2) Hold My Hand/Top Gun: Maverick (2)

3) Lift Me Up/Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (3)

4) This Is a Life/Everything Everywhere (4)

5) Applause/Tell It Like a Woman (5)

CINEMATOGRAPHY

1) All Quiet on the Western Front (2)

2) Elvis (1)

3) TAR (3)

4) Empire of Light (4)

5) Bardo (5)

EDITING

1) Top Gun: Maverick (1)

2) Everything Everywhere All at Once (2)

3) Elvis (3)

4) The Banshees of Inisherin (4)

5)TAR (5)

Comment:

In a couple of close races I have shuffled the top two.  In Original Screenplay I have moved Banshees ahead of Everything Everywhere and in Cinematography I have moved All Quiet ahead of Elvis.  In both instances the race is tight and fluid.  I could change back tomorrow.  As an extra side note, I could see TAR crashing the party in both of these categories as well.

I'll be updating predictions for Animated, International and Documentary features as well as Production Design, Costumes and Makeup/Hair in next Monday's post.

DETECTIVE WORK

Last year I was really a believer early on that Living would make the trip to Telluride despite having played at Sundance seven months earlier.  Some of that was a hunch but some if it was also based on recent TFF history.  

Prior to TFF #49, there had been two other recent instances where high profile awards contenders screened at Sundance originally and then moved to Telluride.  In 2016 Casey Affleck's Oscar winning turn in Manchester by the Sea bowed at Sundance and then Affleck was a tribute recipient at TFF #43.  Then in 2019 Adam Driver followed the same route with The Report at Sundance followed by a tribute and Telluride slot for the film plus Marriage Story.

In 2020, The Father was on the released list of films that would have screened at TFF #47 had it happened.  Anthony Hopkins was said to have been a tribute recipient.  Of course, Hopkins would win the Oscar for Best Actor.

In each of these cases the films also shared the distinction of being distributed by outfits that have had good ties to TFF.  In the cases of Manchester and The Report it was Amazon Studios and for The Father and Living it was Sony Pictures Classics.

All of that is to get to this which is the late January news that SPC bought distribution rights to Sundance film A Little Prayer from writer/director Angus MacLachlan (Junebug and Abundant Acreage Available) .  And what really got to me look at this was a post from Gold Derby this week mentioning 2024 Oscar buzz (yes, already) for David Strathairn's performance. 

A little bell started dinging in my head.  It fits the recent profile.  So, maybe for TFF #50, A Little Prayer from SPC starring Strathairn and a possible tribute for the longtime actor.  Don't be surprised if that is on the first "Ten Bets: for TFF #50 in June.

David Strathairn's IMDb page.

Angus MacLachan's IMDb page.

VISITATIONS

WOMEN TALKING:  Claire Foy for Harpers's Bazaar.

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com

TWITTER @TheMTFB OR @Gort2 

MTFB's Facebook Page

MTFB is published on Mondays and Thursdays

BREAKING: TOM LUDDY HAS DIED 1943-2023

The Hollywood Reporter and Deadline have reported that TFF co-founder Tom Luddy has died.  Luddy passed yesterday in California at the age of 79.   

Here is the press release from the fest:

It is with deep sorrow the Telluride Film Festival announces the passing of its founder and inspiration, Tom Luddy. Tom died peacefully on February 13, 2023, in Berkeley, California after a long illness.

 Tom was a force in the film industry for nearly six decades. He had a life-long love and passion for film, and a tireless dedication to film restoration, distribution, and exhibition. His presence will be profoundly missed by the many people whose lives were touched by his kindness, artistry, and his innate ability to bring people together to make something beautiful. 

 “The world has lost a rare ingredient that we’ll all be searching for, for some time,” reflects Julie Huntsinger, Telluride Film Festival Executive Director. “I would sometimes find myself feeling sad for those who didn’t get to know Tom Luddy properly. He had a sphinxlike quality that took a little time to get around, for some. But once you knew him, you were welcomed into a kingdom of art, history, intelligence, humor, and joie de vivre that you knew you couldn’t be without. He made life richer. Magical. He called Telluride a labor of love for a very long time. We’re so much better off because of him and that labor. We at the Festival owe it to him to carry on his legacy; his commitment to and love for cinema, above all.”  

 Born June 4, 1943, in New York City, Tom began his career in film as a student at UC Berkeley (1962-1965) where he was the program director of several student film societies including the F.W. Murnau Film Society, the Slate Film Society, and the Student Union Film Series. In 1964 he worked as the assistant to Ed Landberg at the Berkeley Cinema Guild, Repertory Cinema. 

 Upon graduating, Luddy was hired at Brandon Films in New York as its director of national distribution from 1966 – 1967 where he worked with Pier Paolo Pasolini on the US release of ACCATONE and with Alain Resnais on the US release of LA GUERRE EST FINI. He then made the move to the Telegraph Repertory Cinema in Berkeley as its program director (1967 – 1969) while also assisting artistic director Albert Johnson at the San Francisco International Film Festival (l967 – 1973). In 1968 Luddy curated a complete (to date) retrospective of the films of Jean-Luc Godard for the Pacific Film Archive, and in 1969 he organized two US college tours for the university art museum in Berkeley with Jean-Luc Godard and Jean-Pierre Gorin for the Dziga Vertov Group. From 1970 – 1972 Luddy, along with Mel Novikoff, was program director for Surf Interplayers Cinema in San Francisco. In 1972 he joined the Pacific Film Archive in Berkeley as its program director and curator of film until 1979. 

 Together with Bill and Stella Pence and James Card, Tom co-founded the Telluride Film Festival in l974. Their vision, which began in a small opera house theatre, has evolved over the past fifty years into one of the most revered film festivals in the world. Luddy had remained with the Festival as co-director, then artistic director and advisor until the end of 2022.  

 Luddy was the American jury member at the 46th Cannes Film Festival under jury chairman Louis Malle. He also served on the juries of the 11th Moscow Film Festival, the 38th Berlin Film Festival and several others including the Cartegena, Mexico City, Morelia, Tehran, and San Paolo Film Festivals. Luddy served as a member of the five-person selection committee for the New York Film Festival  (l979 – 1982) as well as West Coast programming consultant in 1978, 1983 – 1984. He served as the associate director for the San Francisco International Film Festival from 1980 – 1983, was a multiyear member and president of the board of directors under chairman George Gund and continued as a member of its advisory board from 1980 through 2022. Luddy also served over a decade as both program curator for the Documentary Film Institute at San Francisco State University beginning in 2005 and as an official consultant to the Berlin Film Festival beginning in 2007.

 Tom Luddy was associated with American Zoetrope as an executive and/or film producer since l979. As Zoetrope’s Director of Special Projects, he was instrumental in Zoetrope’s support for Akira Kurosawa’s KAGEMUSHA (l980), co-executive produced by Francis Coppola and George Lucas. He developed and supervised the presentation across America of Hans-Jurgen Syberberg’s seven-hour OUR HITLER--A FILM FROM GERMANY in l980, as well as the l98l-82 worldwide revival of Abel Gance’s l927 masterpiece NAPOLEON. Luddy coordinated two collaborations with Jean-Luc Godard: EVERYMAN FOR HIMSELF (l980) and PASSION (l982), as well as Zoetrope’s sponsorship of Godfrey Reggio’s KOYAANISQATSI (l983), and the theatrical release of Fielder Cook’s TOO FAR TO GO (1983). 

 As an executive at Zoetrope in the early 80s, Luddy arranged and obtained the US Distribution rights for ten years to three Chinese classic films: THE SPRING RIVER FLOWS EAST, CROSSROADS, and STREET ANGEL. In 1982 he acquired and distributed Kidlat Tahimik’s THE PERFUMED NIGHTMARE.

 In l985 Luddy produced, with Mata Yamamoto, the remarkable film MISHIMA: A LIFE IN FOUR CHAPTERS, directed by Paul Schrader, featuring sets by Eiko Ishioka and Music by Phillip Glass.  He also served as executive producer on TOUGH GUYS DON’T DANCE (l987), written and directed by Norman Mailer. Together with Fred Roos and Barbet Schroeder, he produced BARFLY (l987) directed by Barbet Schroeder from an original screenplay by Charles Bukowski starring Mickey Rourke and Faye Dunaway.  He served as associate producer on Jean-Luc Godard’s KING LEAR (l987), and on Godfrey Reggio’s POWAQQATSI (1988). In l988, he served as executive producer on Dusan Makavejev’s MANIFESTO. Together with Fred Roos and Erwin Provoost, he produced the John Fante adaptation WAIT UNTIL SPRING, BANDINI (l989), directed by Dominique Deruddere and starring Joe Mantegna, Faye Dunaway, and Ornella Muti.

 In l992, Tom Luddy reunited with Japanese producer Mata Yamamoto to produce WIND for Zoetrope & Filmlink International, directed by Carroll Ballard, starring Matthew Modine, Jennifer Grey, Stellan Skarsgaard, Jack Thompson, Cliff Robertson, and Rebecca Miller. In l993, together with Fred Roos and Fred Fuchs, he produced Agnieszka Holland’s THE SECRET GARDEN. In l995, he served as Zoetrope’s executive producer on Gregory Nava’s MI FAMILIA/MY FAMILY, starring Jimmy Smits, Esai Morales Edward James Olmos, and Jennifer Lopez. 

 Tom is survived by his wife Monique Montgomery, his siblings Brian Luddy, James Luddy , Jeanne Van Duzer, nephews Stevens and Will Van Duzer, and nieces Dierdre Pino, Megan Archer and Caroline Van Duzer  

 Funeral service information to be announced at a later date. Donations in Luddy’s memory may be made to Telluride Film Festival’s General Support Fund or the National Film Preserve’s Nugget Project. 

I'll have more in Thursday's regularly scheduled blog post. 

MTFB Oscar Update: Best Picture, Direction and Acting / Oscar Thoughts / Visitations: Bill Nighy on Living

Here are my latest predictions for who/what will win Oscars on March 12th for Best Picture, Direction and the four acting categories.

BEST PICTURE

1) Everything Everywhere All at Once (1)

2) The Banshees of Inisherin (3)

3) The Fabelmans (2)

4) TAR (5)

5)  Top Gun: Maverick (4)

6) Elvis (6)

7) All Quiet on the Western Front (7)

8) Triangle of Sadness (8)

9) Avatar: The Way of Water (9)

10) Women Talking (10)

BEST DIRECTION

1) Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert/Everything Everywhere All at Once (2)

2) Steven Spielberg/The Fabelmans (1)

3) Todd Field/TAR (4)

4) Martin McDonagh/The Bnashees of Inisherin (3)

5) Ruben Ostlund/Triangle of Sadness (5)

BEST ACTRESS

1) Cate Blanchett/TAR (1)

2) Michelle Yeoh/Everything Everywhere All at Once (2)

3) Andrea Riseborough/To Leslie (5)

4) Michelle Williams/The Fabelmans (3)

5) Ana de Armas/Blonde (4)

BEST ACTOR

1) Brendan Fraser/The Whale (1)

2) Austin Butler/Elvis (2)

3) Colin Farrell/The Banshees of Inisherin (3)

4) Bill Nighy/Living (4)

5) Paul Mescal/Aftersun (5)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1) Angela Bassett/Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (1)

2) Kerry Condon/The Banshees of Inisherin (2)

3) Jamie Lee Curtis/Everything Everywhere All at Once (3)

4) Stephanie Hsu/Everything Everywhere All at Once (5)

5) Hong Chau/The Whale (4)

BEST SUPPORTNG ACTOR

1) Ke Huy Quan/Everything Everywhere All at Once (1)

2) Brendan Gleeson/The Banshees of Inisherin (2)

3) Judd Hirsch/The Fabelmans (4)

4) Barry Keoghan/The Banshees of Inisherin (3)

5) Bryan Tyree Henry/Causeway (5)

OSCAR THOUGHTS:

Only one substantial change and that is in Best Direction where I have moved The Daniels of Everything Everywhere ahead of Steven Spielberg for the win on March 12th.

Otherwise, two weeks after I originally predicted these six categories, the leaders remain the same with Everything Everywhere winning Best Pic and the acting awards going to Blanchett, Fraser, Bassett and Quan.

We'll  re-visit these six categories in on Feb. 26th and then again for my final predictions.

What are the tightest categories at present, at least from my perspective:

Picture: Giving  Everything Everywhere a serious fight are: Banshees, Fabelmans, Maverick and maybe even TAR. Heck, even Elvis and All Quiet are outside shots.

Direction: It appears to be down to The Daniels and Spielberg.

Actress: Blanchett and Yeoh.  Tight.

Actor: Fraser, Butler and Farrell.  Also tight.

Original Screenplay: Everything Everywhere and Banshees.

Score: Babylon and Fabelmans

Documentary: Any of them except House of Splinters.

Cinematography: Elvis, All Quiet and TAR.

Editing: Maverick and Everything Everywhere

Makeup/Hair: Elvis and The Whale.

And, as always, the three Shorts categories.

You can hear Anne Thompson and Eric Kohn talk about what they believe are the tightest categories as a part of this week's Screen Talk podcast from Indiewire.  That's linked here.

VISTATTIONS

LIVING: Bill Nighy from SPC's Twitter account.

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com

TWITTER @TheMTFB OR @Gort2 

MTFB's Facebook Page

MTFB is published on Mondays and Thursdays

MTFB Oscar Update: First Winner Predictions Part Four / Visitations: Polley, Whishaw, Buckley and More

MTFB OSCAR UPDATE FIRST WINNER PREDICTIONS PART FOUR

Here's the last of my first pass at predicting what films and performances will win Oscars on March 12th.  Over the past two weeks I have predicted the other 18 categories.  Going forward I will continue to update categories at the same intervals culminating in a final set of predictions on Oscar morning.  Today's initial predictions for the final five categories follow.  TFF films in Bold.

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

1) Avatar: The Way of Water

2) Top Gun: Maverick

3) All Quiet on the Western Front

4) The Batman

5) Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

BEST SOUND

1) Top Gun: Maverick

2) Elvis

3) All Quiet on the Western Front

4) Avatar: The Way of Water

5)The Batman

BEST ANIMATED SHORT

1) The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse

2) An Ostrich Told Me the World Is Fake...

3) The Flying Sailor

4) My Year of Dicks

5) Ice Merchants

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT

1) How Do You Measure a Year?

2) The Elephant Whisperers

3) The Martha Mitchell Effect

4) Stranger at the Gate

5) Haulout

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT

1) Le Pupille

2) An Irish Goodbye

3) The Red Suitcase

4) Ivalu

5) The Night Ride

Comments:

The Visual Effects win for Avatar/Water and Sound win for TG: Maverick seem pretty likely at this point. 

As always the Short Films categories are really anyone's guess, though the buzz for The Boy, the Mole etc. has it feeling like the most certain winner in any of the three shorts categories.  The Doc and Live Action Shorts categories are totally up in the air.

After the initial prognostications over the past two weeks I have TFF films winning four statues on March 12th:

Cate Blanchett/Best Actress/TAR

Women Talking/Adapted Screenplay

All the Beauty and the Bloodshed/Best Doc

Le Pupille/Best Live Action Short

And among the 20 feature categories, win totals predicted:

Films with multiple predicted wins:

Everything Everywhere wins three Oscars for Best Picture,  Ke Huy Quan/Supporting Actor and Original Screenplay.

Elvis with four: Cinematography, Production Design, Costumes and Makeup/Hair.

The Fabelmans with one: Steven Spielberg/Best Direction.

Top Gun: Maverick with two: Editing and Sound

Films with single predicted wins:

TAR: Cate Blanchett/Lead Actress.

The Whale: Brendan Fraser/Lead Actor.

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever: Angela Bassett/Supporting Actress.

Women Talking: Adapted Screenplay.

Babylon: Original Score.

RRR: Original Song.

All Quiet on the Western Front: International Feature.

Guillermo Del Toro's Pinocchio: Animated Feature.

All the Beauty and the Bloodshed: Documentary Feature.

Avatar: The Way of Water: Visual Effects.

I can still see the possibility of Everything Everywhere winning up to six.  The three I have predicted at this point plus Direction, Actress and Editing.

I have Banshees being shut out, but it's still very much alive for Original Screenplay and Colin Farrell is still a viable Best Actor winner.  We'll see how that evolves over the next few weeks.

VISITATIONS

WOMEN TALKING: Sarah Polley and Ben Whishaw for London Live.  Jesse Buckley on the BBC Women's Hour.

ARMAGEDDON TIME: James Gray for FLC Luminaries (YouTube).

ONE FINE MORNING: Mia Hansen-Love for FLC Luminaries (YouTube).

SR.: Chris Smith for FLC Luminaries (YouTube).

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com

TWITTER @TheMTFB OR @Gort2 

MTFB's Facebook Page

MTFB is published on Mondays and Thursdays

MTFB Oscar Update: First Oscar Winner Predictions Part Three / The Film Stage's 100 Most Anticipated

MTFB OSCAR UPDATE: OSCAR WINNER PREDICTIONS PART THREE

I'm continuing my first attempts at predicting what will win Oscars on the night of March 12th.  Today I'm adding these categories to the 12 I have previously predicted in the last two posts:  International Feature, Animated Feature, Documentary Feature, Production Design, Costume Design and Makeup/Hair.  Films are ranked in order of likelihood to win. I have highlighted TFF nominees in Bold.

INETRNATIONAL FEATURE

1) All Quiet on the Western Front

2) Argentina 1985

3) Close

4) EO

5) The Quiet Girl

ANIMANTED FEATURE

1) GDT's Pinocchio

2) Marcel the Shell with Shoes On

3) Puss in Boots: The Last Wish

4) Turning Red

5) The Sea Beast

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

1) All the Beauty and the Bloodshed

2) All That Breathes

3) Navalny

4) Fire of Love

5) The House of Splinters

PRODUCTION DESIGN

1) Elvis

2) Babylon

3) Avatar: The Way of Water

4) All Quiet on the Western Front

5) The Fabelmans

COSTUME DESIGN

1) Elvis

2) Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

3) Babylon

4) Everything Everywhere All at Once

5) Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris

MAKEUP/HAIR

1) Elvis

2) The Whale

3) The Batman

4) All Quiet on the Western Front

5) Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Through 18 predicted categories here's the rundown of what Oscar night looks like if I'm 100% accurate:

Everything Everywhere wins three Oscars for Best Picture,  Ke Huy Quan/Supporting Actor and Original Screenplay.

Elvis with four: Cinematography, Production Design, Costumes and Makeup/Hair.

The Fabelmans with one: Steven Spielberg/Best Direction.

TAR with one: Cate Blanchett/Lead Actress.

The Whale with one: Brendan Fraser/Lead Actor.

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever with one: Angela Bassett/Supporting Actress.

Women Talking with one: Adapted Screenplay.

Babylon with one: Original Score.

RRR with one: Original Song.

Top Gun: Maverick with one: Editing.

All Quiet on the Western Front with one: International Feature

Guillermo Del Toro's Pinocchio with one: Animated Feature.

All the Beauty and the Bloodshed with one: Documentary Feature

Only two more feature categories remain to be initially predicted: Sound and Visual Effects.  Those along with the three shorts categories will be predicted in Thursday's post.

Couple of notes here.  

Everything Everywhere could easily add three more Oscars to its haul: Direction, Lead Actress and Editing.

Categories that seem most "locked" at the moment are Supporting Actor: Quan, Song: Naatu Naatu from RRR, International Feature: All Quiet...

Categories that seem to be the most contentious: Picture, Direction (Spielberg and The Daniels), Actress (Blanchett and Yeoh), Actor (Fraser and Butler with Farrell also possible), Original Screenplay (Everything Everywhere and Banshees), Documentary (literally any of them except House of Splinters),Cinematography (Again, any of the five except for Bardo), Editing (TG: Maverick and Everything Everywhere) and Makeup/Hair (Elvis and The Whale).

THE FILM STAGE'S 100 MOST ANTICIPATED AND TFF

Last month The Film Stage posted the 100 films that it have the most anticipation for in 2023.  I kind of spaced that out as I was focused on Oscar season.  Nevertheless, a month later, I have finally run through their list for possible players for TFF #50.

Last year, six films that I highlighted from The Film Stage list actually made it to TFF #49:

The Wonder

Bones and All

Broker

One Fine Morning

Women Talking 

TAR

Several films were on the 2022 list and reappear this year as they weren't released in 2022 including:

Maestro, The Holdovers, Poor Things, The Killer, Zone of Interest and Killers of the Flower Moon.

Here are maybe the best possibilities from their 2023 list:

100) El Conde

98) My Crime

93) The Royal Hotel

81) Emilia Perez

77) Butterfly Jam

72) Monster

60) Poor Things

59) AND

57) Nightbitch

48) Strangers

40) The Holdovers

38) The Island

36) Maestro

20) Fallen Leaves

19) Stone Mattress

18) Die My Love

16) The Killer

15) The End

13) The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar

12) Priscilla

8) Zone of Interest

6) May/December

3) The Way of the Wind

2) Killers of the Flower Moon

1) How Do You Live?

The complete two part article is linked here.

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com

TWITTER @TheMTFB OR @Gort2 

MTFB's Facebook Page

MTFB is published on Mondays and Thursdays

MTFB Oscar Update: Winners Predictions Part 2 / The Unofficial TFF Oscar Page Update

MTFB OSCAR UPDATE: WINNERS PREDICTIONS PART TWO

Today we take a first pass at predicting what films will win for Adapted and Original Screenplay as well as Score. Song, Cinematography and Editing.  TFF films are indicated in Bold.

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1) Women Talking

2) All Quiet on the Western front

3) Living

4) Glass Onion

5) Top Gun: Maverick

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1) Everything Everywhere All at Once

2) The Banshees of Inisherin

3) The Fabelmans

4) TAR

5) Triangle of Sadness

SCORE

1) Babylon

2) The Fabelmans

3) All Quiet on the Western Front

4) The Banshees of Inisherin

5) Everything Everywhere All at Once

SONG

1) Naatu Naatu/RRR

2) Hold My Hand/Top Gun: Maverick

3) Lift Me Up/Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

4) This Is a Life/Everything Everywhere

5) Applause/Tell It Like aWoman

CINEMATOGRAPHY

1) Elvis

2) All Quiet on the Western Front

3) TAR

4) Empire of Light

5) Bardo

EDITING

1) Top Gun: Maverick

2) Everything Everywhere

3) Elvis

4) The Banshees of Inisherin

5)TAR

Through 12 categories of predicting, including the first six categories from last Monday's post, Everything Everywhere All at Once is the only film with more than a single predicted nomination.  I have it winning three: Picture, Supporting Actor and Original Screenplay(barely edging Banshees-so that could evolve over the next few weeks).

Through these first 12 categories I have TFF films winning two Oscars, Blanchett for Best Actress for TAR and Sarah Polley for Best Adapted Screenplay for Women Talking.

Next Monday, predictions for International Feature, Documentary Feature, Animated Feature, Production Design, Makeup/Hair and Costumes.

THE UNOFFICIAL OSCAR PAGE UPDATE

MTFB's Unofficial TFF Oscar History Page has been updated to reflect the most recent set of nominations involving TFF films.  The Oscar History page is divided into to four sections:

TFF Oscar Nominations by Year

TFF Oscar Nominations and Wins by Category and Year

TFF Nominations for Each Category from Most to Least

TFF Films with Six or More Nominations

Here's a quick jump to that page and, of course you can always access it and all of the other MTFB Bonus Pages by clicking on the links at the top of each post.

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com

TWITTER @TheMTFB OR @Gort2 

MTFB's Facebook Page

MTFB is published on Mondays and Thursdays

MTFB Oscar Update: First Oscar Winner Predictions / Visitations : Blanchett and More

FIRST OSCAR WINNER PREDICITONS

We're headed for March 12th and the 95th Academy Awards and now that nominations are known (with the possible exception of Andrea Riseborough) here's your first look at predicted winners.  I'll start today with six  major categories and then add six more for each of the next three posts.  Each set will then be updated every two weeks until the final set of predictions on Oscar Sunday.

As always, films from TFF are in Bold.

BEST PICTURE

1) Everything Everywhere All at Once

2) The Fabelmans

3) The Banshees of Inisherin

4)  Top Gun: Maverick

5) TAR

6) Elvis

7) All Quiet on the Western Front

8) Triangle of Sadness

9) Avatar: The Way of Water

10) Women Talking

BEST DIRECTION

1) Steven Spielberg/The Fabelmans

2) Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert/Everything Everywhere All at Once

3) Martin McDonagh/The Banshees of Inisherin

4) Todd Field/TAR

5) Ruben Ostlund/Triangle of Sadness

BEST ACTRESS

1) Cate Blanchett/TAR

2) Michelle Yeoh/Everything Everywhere All at Once

3) Michelle Williams/The Fabelmans

4) Ana de Armas/Blonde

5) Andrea Riseborough/To Leslie

BEST ACTOR

1) Brendan Fraser/The Whale

2) Austin Butler/Elvis

3) Colin Farrell/The Banshees of Inisherin

4) Bill Nighy/Living

5) Paul Mescal/Aftersun

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1) Angela Bassett/Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

2) Kerry Condon/The Banshees of Inisherin

3) Jamie Lee Curtis/Everything Everywhere All at Once

4) Hong Chau/The Whale

5) Stephanie Hsu/Everything Everywhere All at Once

BEST SUPPORTNG ACTOR

1) Ke Huy Quan/Everything Everywhere All at Once

2) Brendan Gleeson/The Banshees of Inisherin

3) Barry Keoghan/The Banshees of Inisherin

4) Judd Hirsch/The Fabelmans

5) Bryan Tyree Henry/Causeway

On Thursday I'll add predictions for Screenplays, Score, Song, Cinematography and Editing.

VISITATIONS

CLOSE

Lukas Dhont at The Playlist.

TAR

Cate Blanchett on Focus Features YouTube channel.

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com

TWITTER @TheMTFB OR @Gort2 

MTFB's Facebook Page

MTFB is published on Mondays and Thursdays

Post Oscar Nomination Thoughts / Writer's Guild and TFF / U.S. Trailer for Godland / Visitations: Foy, Buckley and More

POST OSCAR NOMINATION THOUGHTS

So after  last Tuesday we have moved to the final phase of the 95th Oscar season in which Academy voters will winnow nominees down to winners in the 23 categories.  Final voting runs from March 2nd and ends March 7th with the ceremony set for March 12th.

Some random thoughts about what we know and what might be coming.

Everything Everywhere All at Once was always going to have a big morning last Tuesday but even the EEAAO crew had to be a little surprised that the film picked up 11 nominations and was the only film earning double digit nominations.

All Quiet on the Western Front; I had it getting nine nominations and was pretty queasy that I had gone overboard assessing its chances.  I really did think that my predilection for picking it would wreck my overall level accuracy.  In so many of its categories I had it getting in at the fifth spot.  Shaky at best.  But all turned out fairly well.  AQOTHWF did get nine nominations.  My predictions very nearly matched nomination for nomination save for picking Edward Berger getting in for Best Direction.  That didn't happen but the film picked up a nomination for Original Score which put it at nine total nominations.

TFF:  TAR overperformed a bit with its six nominations.  I had it predicted for four (Picture, Direction, Actress and Original screenplay) all of which it got in addition to Cinematography and Editing.

I had hoped Women Talking would get a least Supporting Acting nomination and had predicted a Best Original Score nomination but those did not materialize.  I was gratified that it pulled in that Best Picture nomination.  Many thought that it would not and my prediction was shaky.

I was also very pleased to see Bill Nighy get his first ever Oscar nomination.

Ultimately I had TFF films earning 16 nominations and they ended up with 17.

I was [leased that I went 93 for 120 for a success rate of 77.5% which, I gather, was a respectable number for Oscarologists.  Over at Gold Derby I would have finished behind just two experts: Indiewire's Anne Thompson who was tops with 95/120 and Gold Derby's Joyce Eng who had 94/120.

So yeah, it's true.  I outperformed a bunch of the folks who get paid to do this stuff.  Here's the link to all of the experts scores from Gold Derby.

Now it's on to March 12th.  Several actual races to make this a fun end to the awards season.  The Best Picture front runner right now seems to be Everything Everywhere but it's certainly not a lock.  Best Actor seems like a tight race between Fraser, Butler and Farrell.  Best Actress looks like  a showdown between Blanchett and Yeoh.  Supporting Actress seems to be leaning toward Angela Bassett but I wouldn't count out Condon or Curtis.  Supporting Actor looks like a slam dunk for Ke Huy Quan.  Best Direction appears to be a battle between The Daniels (Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinart) and Steven Spielberg.  

I'll start predicting for the winners in next Monday's post.

WRITER'S GUILD AND TFF

The Writer's Guild of America announced its nominees for the best work in screenplays for 2022 yesterday.  TFF #49 films scored a nomination in each of the three categories.  Todd Field earned a nomination for Best Original Screenplay for TAR.  Sarah Polley was nominated for penning the Adapted Screenplay for Women Talking and Ondi Timoner was nominated for the best screenplay for a documentary for the Last Flight Home.

As is often the case, a number of Oscar nominated screenplays likely missed out due being ineligible for the WGA honor such as The Banshees of Inisherin, Living and All Quiet on the Western Front.

The WGA will announce its winners on March 5th.

Here is the complete list of WGA nominees.

U.S TRAILER FOR GODLAND

VISITATIONS

WOMEN TALKING

Sarah Polley on the WTF podcast.

Claire Foy and Jesse Buckley on ming5.com. 

EMPIRE OF LIGHT

Micheal Ward from Vanity Fair.

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com

TWITTER @TheMTFB OR @Gort2 

MTFB's Facebook Page

MTFB is published on Mondays and Thursdays