With only 11 days left until they open the envelopes in LA, here is the latest analysis for the Big 8 categories from The Clearinghouse. The data is from Incontention.com, Awards Daily, Dave Karger at entertainment Weekly, Movie City News' Gurus of Gold, Scott Feinberg and Awards Circuit.
Telluride Film #37 films in CAPS AND BOLD.
Best Picture: 1) THE KING'S SPEECH, 2) The Social Network, 3) The Fighter, 4) True Grit, 5) BLACK SWAN, 6) Inception, 7) Toy Story 3, 8) 127 HOURS, 9) The Kids Are All Right, 10) Winter's Bone.
Comment: King's is the solid favorite at this point. But there are still pockets of guessperts that are holding out for Social Network and an apparently aggressive campaign for The Fighter. Still, TKS looks like the winner.
Best Director: 1) TOM HOOPER/TKS, 2) David Fincher/TSN, 3) (tie) Joel & Ethan Coen/True Grit and David O. Russell/The Fighter, 5) DARREN ARONOFSKY/BLACK SWAN.
Comment: Despite Hooper's DGA win, the race between he and Fincher is regarded by the experts as essentially a toss-up. Fincher's BAFTA win earlier this week puts an exclamation point on it. In this most recent crunching of the numbers Hooper has a lead of a whisper-thin 1 point. Could we see a split with TKS winning Best Picture and Fincher winning Director? The numbers suggest that that could happen on Oscar night.
Best Actress: 1) NATALIE PORTMAN/BLACK SWAN, 2) Annette Bening/Kids Are All Right, 3) Jennifer Lawrence/Winter's Bone, 4) Nicole Kidman/Rabbit Hole, 5) Michelle Williams/Blue Valentine.
Comment: In a race that was considered close for most of this awards season, Portman has grabbed solid lead among the prognosticators. Bening is reportedly waged a really solid campaign since The Golden Globes but Portman is still seen as a clear front-runner.
Best Actor: 1) COLIN FIRTH/TKS, 2) JAMES FRANCO/127 HOURS, 3) Jesse Eisenberg/TSN, 4) Jeff Bridges/True Grit, 5) JAVIER BARDEM/BIUTIFUL.
Comment: This really is the "honor just to be nominated" category this year (and Supporting Actor is close to being he same way). No one is going to beat Firth.
Best Supporting Actress: 1) Melissa Leo/The Fighter, 2) Hailee Steinfeld/True Grit, 3) HELENA BONHAM CARTER/TKS, 4) Amy Adams/The Fighter, 5) Jacki Weaver/Animal Kingdom.
Comment: A category that looked all but done a few weeks ago has suddenly opened up. Leo's lead over Steinfeld has shrunk precipitously due to Leo's personal campaign for the award and what has been perceived as some awkwardness from her during the run through awards season. Consequently, the door has opened and young Ms. Steinfeld would appear to be a beneficiary. Additionally, if there is a really big King's sweep, Bonham Carter might sneak in. This is one of the categories that will actually make Oscar night have some suspense.
Best Supporting Actor: 1) Christian Bale/The Fighter, 2) GEOFFREY RUSH/TKS, 3) Mark Ruffalo/Kids Are All Right, 4) John Hawkes/Winter's Bone, 5) Jeremy Renner/The Town.
Comment: Bale is a prohibitive favorite and has been for a long time. The only shot at a disruption in this category is if "The King's Speech" is having a tsunami-like wave. That might get Rush his second Oscar...but don't hold your breath.
Best Original Screenplay: 1) THE KING'S SPEECH (David Seidler), 2) The Kids Are All Right, 3) Inception, 4) The Fighter, 5) ANOTHER YEAR.
Comment: It's Seidler's to lose at this point.
Best Adapted Screenplay: 1) The Social Network (Aaron Sorkin), 2) True Grit, 3) Toy Story 3, 4) Winter's Bone, 5) 127 HOURS.
Comment: Like Seidler, it's Sorkin's to lose.
Tomorrow we'll look at the other Oscar categories and assess where they are with a week and a half left to go before the big night.
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