FINAL Oscar Predictions / The Telluride Effect Part Two / Oscar Experts Final Predictions

Thursday before Oscar...


FINAL OSCAR #91 PREDICTIONS

Best Picture:Roma  (Could be: Green Book)
Direction: Alfonso Cuaron/Roma (Could be: Spike Lee/BlacKkKlansman)
Actress: Glenn Close/The Wife (Could be: Olivia Colman/The Favourite)
Actor: Rami Malek/Bohemian Rhapsody (Could be: Christian Bale/Vice)
Supporting Actress: Regina King/If Beale Street Could Talk (Could be: Rachel Weisz/The Favourite OR Amy Adams/Vice)
Supporting Actor: Mahershala Ali/Green Book (Could be: Richard E. Grant/Can You Ever Forgive Me?)
Original Screenplay: Green Book (Could be: The Favourite)
Adapted Screenplay: BlacKkKlansman (Could be: Can You Ever Forgive Me?)
Animated Feature: Spiderman: Into the Spiderverse (Could be: Incredibles 2)
Documentary Feature: Free Solo (Could be: RBG)
Foreign Language Film: Roma (Could be: Cold War)
Original Song: Shallow/A Star Is Born (Could be: All the Stars/Black Panther)
Original Score: Black Panther (Could be: If Beale Street Could Talk)
Cinematography: Roma (Could be: Cold War)
Film Editing: Vice (Could be: Bohemian Rhapsody)
Production Design: The Favourite (Could be: Black Panther)
Costumes: Black Panther (Could be: The Favourite)
Makeup/Hair: Vice (Could be: Mary Queen of Scots)
Visual Effects: First Man (Could be: Avengers: Infinity War)
Sound Editing: Bohemian Rhapsody (Could be: First Man)
Sound Mixing: Bohemian Rhapsody (Could be: First Man)
Animated Short: Bao (Could be: Animal Behavior)
Documentary Short: Period. End of Sentence (Could be: End Game)
Live Action Short: Marguerite (Could be: Any of the others)


THE TELLURIDE EFFECT PART TWO

I wrote on Monday about "The Telluride Effect", the notion that a film now almost has to play Telluride to win Best Picture at the Oscars.  I reminded readers that the last decade seems to provide evidence for the theory with nine of the last ten winners having played TFF on their way to Oscar glory.

I also suggested that there might be five reasons that it could be true:

1) Reputation
2) Demographics
3) Ties to The Academy
4) Timing
5) Media Presence Increase

So, I asked a number of friends and acquaintances from the industry that are usual TFF attendees and asked them two questions:

1) Is the "Telluride Effect" real?
2) If so, why?


The first question drew mixed responses.

Film maker, Script Magazine contributor and long time Telluride Film Fest attendee Christopher Schiller writing that "it is certainly real from my observations" while Variety's Kristopher Tapley suggests that "It's potentially real."

Other respondents weren't as quick to sign on to the existence of The T-ride Effect.  Mark Johnson of Awards Circuit saying "I think it may just be lucky coincidence".  Indiewire's Eric Kohn came close to seconding Johnson's assessment claiming his belief that "it's arbitrary.

Variety's Peter DeBruge told me that it does exist as a self-fulfilling prophecy of sorts"  but The Hollywood Reporter's Scott Feinberg said that "there is no way to know".

To the extent that it does or might exist, many of the answers I got to the second question as to why underscored the five points I made in Monday's post.

Telluride's reputation and its programming prowess were cited by Sasha Stone of Awards Daily as she said that it is a combination of factors including "the selection committee".    Schiller says that the fest has "always had from the very first one onward" the "class of selection" and that "producers who calculate a ride to the awards...consider getting the 'right' exposure from Telluride" 

Both Schiller and DeBruge take pains to say that they don't believe any of the "effect" is the conscious design of the TFF programmers.

In as far as my second and third points, that Telluride has great demographics including a significant Academy presence, those sentiments were echoed by Tapley who commented on "the concentration of Academy members that are present" and Stone who says that the "effect" may be true in part because of "the small amount of people who attend...that make it a perfect launching site for Oscar movies."

On to my fourth observation that some of it has to do with timing.  About this there was a good deal of agreement with the general notion but the specifics differed a bit.  Schiller pointed to the festival's benefiting from the decision of the Motion Picture Academy to move the date of the Oscar ceremony forward three weeks from the end of March to the end of February or early March.  That change came in 2003.  DeBruge mentions it's fortuitous placement between Venice and Toronto but Mark Johnson had, perhaps the most pointed comment concerning timing and the Best Picture Oscar saying that screening a film at Telluride mean that producers "have time for their film to take heat and recover from it."

My fifth point was the increase in the press coverage that has happened over the last decade plus.  Again, Peter DeBruge underscored my point in his commentary saying,  "The phenomenon is bolstered by...the steep increase in press coverage at the festival."  He went on to write, "Now that many more critics-and Oscar bloggers- attend, these movies now get early adulatory coverage, as opposed to getting lost among the 300 or so movies unspooling at Toronto a week later."

So, I felt good about the things I wrote on Monday but there were a couple of other tidbits among the responses that I felt merited mentioning. 


DeBruge added that not all plans to take advantage of The Telluride Effect, if in fact it does exist, go as planned.  For every Spotlight, Moonlight or Shape of Water, TFF can also be a place where those awards dreams sometimes crash.  He says, "let's not forget the many movies that miscalculated their own merits and were met with mixed reactions/downright disappointment by the discerning viewers in the Colorado mountains"  Among the films he mentioned: Labor Day, Hyde Park on Hudson and Downsizing.

It was Schiller who posed the obvious question that I overlooked which was "Will it last?"  which is a great question.  Chris has some of the same thought that I do suggesting that the changing particulars of the awards season may mean that the "effect" may be limited saying, "the quality structure that is the heart of Telluride may not align with the awards shows' proclivities in the future."

My take on Schiller's note here is what I said Monday in my second point which is that with the conscious move by the Academy to expand and diversify TFF's effect may change as a result.

Finally, leave it to THR's Scott Feinberg to put it most succinctly, "as long as Telluride films keep winning Best Picture, I expect distributors will continue to treat the fest as a must-go place."

Will that happen Sunday night?  If you read my predictions above...I think so....but it's tight people...IT IS TIGHT...

My thanks to:

Peter DeBruge/Variety
Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter
Mark Johnson/Awards Circuit
Eric Kohn/Indiewire
Sasha Stone/Awards Daily
Kristopher Tapley/Variety
Christopher Schiller/ScriptMag.com


OSCAR EXPERTS FINAL PREDICTIONS

Here are links to the current "Final" predictions from a slew of Oscarologists:


Kristopher Tapley/Variety-InContention

Erik Anderson/Awards Watch

Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit

Andrew Carden/The Awards Connection

Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter

Steve Pond/The Wrap


That's all for MTFB for today.  I'll be back Monday with an Oscar breakdown.


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