Film Awards Clearinghouse Vol. 4/What the Critics Say about 2011

Here's the latest Film Awards Clearinghouse number crunching using published information from:

Awards Daily

The Hollywood Reporter

The Movie City News

Incontention (at HitFix)

Hollywood Elsewhere

Film Misery

FIlm Experience

Thompson on Hollywood

Awards Circuit

TFF #38 films in Bold and Large

BEST PICTURE

1)The Artist

2) The Descendants

3) War Horse

4) Hugo
5) The Help

6) Moneyball

7) Midnight in Paris

8) Extremely Loud
9) The Tree of Life
10) The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo

11) The Ides of March

12) Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy

13) Drive

14) J. Edgar

15) My Week with Marilyn

Out: Shame, The Iron Lady

Hot: HUGO (red hot!), Drive

Not: Midnight in Paris, Tinker Tailor, J. Edgar

Comment: We’re a month from the announcement of the nominees and you can book them coming from the 1-9 spots.  I still believe there will be 7 BP noms and at this point I feel that only Artist, Descendants and Hugo are locks.  That’s right; I skipped over #3 War Horse…because I just think it’s not a lock, at least not yet.  Same for The Help and Moneyball.  Those three are probable…but just not locks.  And I also believe that Paris, Extremely Loud and Tree are going to battle for the 7^th spot.  My money would be on Tree of Life at this point.  Personally, I’d be voting “Shame” best film of the year…(my Top Ten list for 2011 is coming soon).

BEST DIRECTION

1) Michel Hazanavicius/Artist

2) Alexander Payne/Descendants

3) Martin Scorsese/Hugo

4) Terrence Malick/Tree of Life

5) Steven Spielberg/War Horse

6) Bennett Miller/Moneyball

7) Woody Allen/Midnight in Paris

8) Stephen Daldry/Extremely Loud

9) David Fincher/Tattoo

10) George Clooney/Ides

Out: Tomas Alfredson/Tinker, Clint Eastwood/J. Edgar

Hot: SCORSESE/HUGO (scorching!) and Malick

Not: Allen and Daldry

Comment:  This is a real tell as far as I’m concerned about the weakness of the positions of The Help and Midnight in Paris as Best Picture players…and also a reason that I think Tree of Life might get a Best Picture nomination.

BEST ACTRESS

1) Viola Davis/The Help

2) Meryl Streep/Iron Lady

3) Glenn Close/Albert Nobbs

4) Michele Williams/My Week with Marilyn

5) Tilda Swinton/We Need to Talk About Kevin

6) Charlize Theron/Young Adult

7) Rooney Mara/Girl with the Dragon Tattoo

8) Elizabeth Olsen/Martha Marcy…

9) Felicity Jones/Like Crazy

10) Olivia Colman/Tyrannosaur

Out: Kirsten Dunst/Melancholia

Hot: Streep and Swinton

Not: Nobody really

Comment:  Swinton’s star has risen meteorically the last month and the top five look pretty solid with just a month left to go.  Theron and Mara appear to be the only outliers that might have a chance to crash the party.

BEST ACTOR

1) George Clooney/Descendants

2) Jean Dujardin/Artist

3) Brad Pitt/Moneyball

4) Michael Fassbender/Shame

5) Leonardo DiCaprio/J. Edgar

6) Gary Oldman/Tinker Tailor

7) Demian Bichir/A Better Life

8) Woody Harrelson/Rampart

9) Ryan Gosling/Ides of March

10) Michael Shannon/Take Shelter

Out: Jordan Gordon-Leavitt/ 50/50

Hot: Bichir

Not: Shannon

Comment:  Fassbender seemed like an #occupyoscar project two months ago…now he seems pretty solidly locked into a likely nomination.  As a matter of fact…this category is probably the closest of the Big 8 to be locked into these five as the nominees.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1) Octavia Spencer/The Help

2) Shailene Woodley/Descendants

3) Berenice Bejo/Artist

4) Jessica Chastain/The Help

5) Vanessa Redgrave/Coriolanus

6) Janet McTeer/Albert Nobbs

7) Melissa McCarthy/Bridesmaids

8) Carey Mulligan/Shame

9) Sandra Bullock/Extremely Loud

10) Judi Dench/J. Edgar

Out: Chastain (Tree of Life)

Hot: Chastain (The Help)

Not: Nobody

Comment:  It seems that the world has decided that it will be Jessica Chastain’s role in “The Help” that will get enough love to boost her to a nomination as opposed to “Tree of Life” or “Take Shelter” or…  And that’s fine.  Chastain really should be recognized as one of these nominees.  I can’t think of anyone who has had a better year.  I’d still prefer to see Mulligan get a nomination over just about anyone else in the field and that’s not completely impossible, but it seems very unlikely at this point.  I will say this, though.  The only 100% lock right now is Spencer.  Anyone else from the 2-8 spots could be in or out come the morning of Jan. 24.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1) Christopher Plummer/Beginners

2) Albert Brooks/Drive

3) Kenneth Brannagh/Marilyn

4) Max Von Sydow/Extremely Close

5) Nick Nolte/Warrior

6) Jonah Hill/Moneyball

7) Patton Oswalt/Young Adult

8) Armie Hammer/J. Edgar

9) Brad Pitt/Tree of Life

10) Viggo Mortensen/Dangerous Method

Out: Kevin Spacey/Margin Call and Philip Seymour Hoffman/Ides of March

Hot: Nolte

Not: Oswalt

Comment:  It’s amazing what some notice from precursors will do as in the case of Nick Nolte (and to a lesser extent Armie Hammer) who has caught fire as an Oscar possible again this last couple of weeks.  It still seems that Plummer, Brooks and Brannagh are pretty much locked in and then the last two spots figure to be in play between Nolte, Von Sydow, Oswalt and Hill.  My money (for the moment) is on Nolte and Von Sydow.

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1) The Descendants

2) Moneyball

3) Hugo

4) Extremely Loud

5) Tinker Tailor

6) War Horse

7) The Help

8) Girl with Dragon Tattoo

9) Ides of March

10) Drive

Out: We Need to Talk About Kevin

Hot: Hugo

Not: Tattoo

Comment: This category remains wide open after The Descendants and Moneyball.

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1) Midnight in Paris

2) The Artist

3) Young Adult

4) The Tree of Life

5) Win Win

6) 50/50

7) Margin Call

8) Rango

9) Bridesmaids

10) Shame

Out: Martha Marcy and J. Edgar

Hot: Young Adult, Win Win, 50/50, Margin Call

Not: Bridesmaids, Shame

Comment: Paris and Artist look solid…after that this category is a free for all as well.

Telluride = 13 nominations and 4 possibles in the latest configuration (remarkably consistent for 3 and ½ months).

THE CRITICS AND 2011

A couple of cumulative crtitcs polls were published this week.  They're interesting reading, if you care about what critics think about this year's crop of film.

IndieWire compiled lists from nearly 200 critics and they provided several categories in addition to Best Film.  Their cumulative top twenty is (numbers to the right are total points and judges votes):

1	The Tree of Life	439	63
2	Melancholia	383	53
3	A Separation	356	60
4	Uncle Boonmee Who Can Recall His Past Lives	328	53
5	Drive	325	47
6	Certified Copy	290	41
7	Mysteries of Lisbon	270	37
8	Hugo	240	37
9	Margaret	222	33
10	Meek's Cutoff	220	33
11	Shame	214	32
12	The Descendants	202	31
13	The Artist	199	28
14	Take Shelter	193	36
15	Martha Marcy May Marlene	190	37
16	A Dangerous Method	155	29
17	Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy	153	27
18	We Need to Talk About Kevin	144	25
19	Film Socialisme	143	20
20	Weekend

You can find the entire set of lists here: http://www.indiewire.com/survey/

Telluride films in this Top Twnety were: at #3 A Separation, at #11 Shame, #12 The Descendants, #13 The Artist, # 16 A Dangerous Method, and #18 We Need to Talk About Kevin.

Meanwhile The Village Voice has done the same thing with 95 critics and you can find all of their results here: http://mubi.com/notebook/posts/village-voice-poll-2011-yep-its-the-tree-of-life-but%E2%80%A6
Their Top Twenty is:
1) The Tree of Life
2) A Separation
3) Melancholia
4) Certified Copy
5) Mysteries of Lisbon
6) Uncle Boonmee
7) Margaret
8) Meek's Cutoff
9) Drive
10) Take Shelter
11) Hugo
12) A Dangerous Method
13) Martha Marcy Mae Marlene
14) Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
15) The Descendants
16) Weekend
17) The Artist
18) Poetry
19) Shame
20) Film Socialisme

Telluride films on this Top Twenty: at #2 A Separation, #12 A Dangerous Method, #15 The Descendants, #17 The Artist and #19 Shame.  Honorable mention to Poetry at #18 which was TFF #37.

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More next Monday!

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