Welcome to the first Monday of 2015...feels like it, doesn't it?
AND NOW FOR 2015: THE FILM AWARDS CLEARINGHOUSE VOL. 7 (21 MAJOR CATEGORIES)
Ten days from Oscar nominations and here's the most complete FAC of the season. I'll try to get the Short Form Films before the nomination announcement.
The FAC uses the published predictions of the following to develop its list of likely Oscar nominees:
Kristopher Tapley/InContention/HitFix
Sasha Stone/Awards Daily
Bred Brevet/Rope of Silicon
Nathaniel Rogers/Film Experience
Anne Thompson/Thompson on Hollywood
Peter Knegt/IndieWire
Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit
Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter
Telluride #41 films are Bold (with their last rating in parentheses were applicable).
BEST PICTURE
1) Boyhood (1)
2) Birdman (2)
3) The Imitation Game (3)
4) Selma (4)
5) The Theory of Everything (5)
6) The Grand Budapest Hotel (6)
7) Whiplash (7)
8) Unbroken (9)
9) Gone Girl (10)
Note here: The Academy has nominated nine films in each of the last three years, so I'm calling this the cutoff point for a Best Picture nomination. The other BP possibilities are:
10) Foxcatcher (8)
11) Nightcrawler (12)
12) Into the Woods (11)
13) American Sniper (NR)
14) Interstellar (13)
15) Mr. Turner (14)
Hot: "American Sniper" apparently has set well with some Academy screenings.
Not: "Foxcatcher" which seems to be too "cool" in tone and "A Most Violent Year".
DIRECTION
1) Richard Linklater/Boyhood (1)
2) Alejandro G. Inarritu/Birdman
3) Ava DuVernay/Selma (3)
4) Morten Tyldum/The Imitation Game (4)
5) Wes Anderson/The Grand Budapest Hotel (5)
6) David Fincher/Gone Girl (6)
7) Damien Chazelle/Whiplash (7)
8) Bennett Miller/Foxcatcher (8)
9) Clint Eastwood (NR)
10) Angelina Jolie/Unbroken (9)
Hot: Eastwood...underscoring the positive buzz around "Sniper"
Not: James Marsh/The Theory of Everything.
BEST ACTOR
1) Michael Keaton/Birdman (1)
2) Eddie Redmayne/The Theory of Everything (2)
3) David Oyelowo/Selma (4)
4) Benedict Cumberbatch/The Imitation Game (3)
5) Jake Gyllenhaal/Nightcrawler (6)
6) Steve Carell/Foxcatcher (5)
7) Timothy Spall/Mr. Turner (7)
8) Ralph Fiennes/The Grand Budapest Hotel (8)
9) Bradley Cooper/American Sniper (NR)
10) Oscar Isaac/A Most Violent Year (9)
Hot: Cooper/Sniper
Not: Chadwick Boseman/Get on Up
BEST ACTRESS
1) Julianne Moore/Still Alice (1)
2) Reese Witherspoon/Wild (2)
3) Felicity Jones/The Theory of Everything (3)
4) Rosamund Pike/Gone Girl (4)
5) Jennifer Aniston/Cake (5)
6) Marion Cotillard/Two Days, One Night (8)
7) Amy Adams/Big Eyes (6)
8) Hilary Swank/The Homesman (7)
9) Emily Blunt/Into the Woods (9)
10) Shailene Woodley/The Fault in Our Stars (10)
Hot: Cotillard
Not: Adams and Swank who continue to slide, ever so slightly, out of the picture.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
1) JK Simmons/Whiplash (1)
2) Edward Norton/Birdman (2)
3) Ethan Hawke/Boyhood (3)
4) Mark Ruffalo/Foxcatcher (4)
5) Robert Duvall/The Judge (5)
6) Josh Brolin/Inherent Vice (8)
7) Tom Wilkinson/Selma (6)
8) Miyavi/Unbroken (9)
9) Christoph Waltz/Big Eyes (7)
10) Chris Pine/Into the Woods (10)
Hot: Brolin
Not: Waltz
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
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1) Patricia Arquette/Boyhood (1)
2) Meryl Streep/Into the Woods (2)
3) Emma Stone/Birdman (3)
4) Kiera Knightley/The Imitation Game (4)
5) Jessica Chastain/A Most Violent Year (5)
6) Laura Dern/Wild (6)
7) Tilda Swinton/Snowpiercer (8)
8) Naomi Watts/St. Vincent (NR)
9) Carmen Ejogo/Selma (7)
10) Rene Russo/Nightcrawler (NR)
Hot: Wattts and Russo
Not: Ejogo, Anna Kendrick and Chastain's "Interstellar" performance.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
1) The Imitation Game (3)
2) Gone Girl (2)
3) The Theory of Everything (1)
4) Wild (4)
5) Inherent Vice (6)
6) Unbroken (8)
7) American Sniper (NR)
8) Into the Woods (9)
9) Still Alice (7)
10) Obvious Child (NR)
Hot: The Imitation Game. American Sniper and Obvious Child
Not: The Theory of Everything, Unbroken and Still Alice
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
1) Boyhood (1)
2) Birdman (2)
3) The Grand Budapest Hotel (5)
4) Whiplash (3)
5) Selma (4)
6) Nightcrawler (NR)
7) Foxcatcher (6)
8) Mr. Turner (8)
9) A Most Violent Year (7)
10) The LEGO Movie (9)
Hot: The Grand Budapest and Nightcrawler
Not: A Most Violent Year and Wild Tales
BEST PICTURE
1) Boyhood (1)
2) Birdman (2)
3) The Imitation Game (3)
4) Selma (4)
5) The Theory of Everything (5)
6) The Grand Budapest Hotel (6)
7) Whiplash (7)
8) Unbroken (9)
9) Gone Girl (10)
Note here: The Academy has nominated nine films in each of the last three years, so I'm calling this the cutoff point for a Best Picture nomination. The other BP possibilities are:
10) Foxcatcher (8)
11) Nightcrawler (12)
12) Into the Woods (11)
13) American Sniper (NR)
14) Interstellar (13)
15) Mr. Turner (14)
Hot: "American Sniper" apparently has set well with some Academy screenings.
Not: "Foxcatcher" which seems to be too "cool" in tone and "A Most Violent Year".
DIRECTION
1) Richard Linklater/Boyhood (1)
2) Alejandro G. Inarritu/Birdman
3) Ava DuVernay/Selma (3)
4) Morten Tyldum/The Imitation Game (4)
5) Wes Anderson/The Grand Budapest Hotel (5)
6) David Fincher/Gone Girl (6)
7) Damien Chazelle/Whiplash (7)
8) Bennett Miller/Foxcatcher (8)
9) Clint Eastwood (NR)
10) Angelina Jolie/Unbroken (9)
Hot: Eastwood...underscoring the positive buzz around "Sniper"
Not: James Marsh/The Theory of Everything.
BEST ACTOR
1) Michael Keaton/Birdman (1)
2) Eddie Redmayne/The Theory of Everything (2)
3) David Oyelowo/Selma (4)
4) Benedict Cumberbatch/The Imitation Game (3)
5) Jake Gyllenhaal/Nightcrawler (6)
6) Steve Carell/Foxcatcher (5)
7) Timothy Spall/Mr. Turner (7)
8) Ralph Fiennes/The Grand Budapest Hotel (8)
9) Bradley Cooper/American Sniper (NR)
10) Oscar Isaac/A Most Violent Year (9)
Hot: Cooper/Sniper
Not: Chadwick Boseman/Get on Up
BEST ACTRESS
1) Julianne Moore/Still Alice (1)
2) Reese Witherspoon/Wild (2)
3) Felicity Jones/The Theory of Everything (3)
4) Rosamund Pike/Gone Girl (4)
5) Jennifer Aniston/Cake (5)
6) Marion Cotillard/Two Days, One Night (8)
7) Amy Adams/Big Eyes (6)
8) Hilary Swank/The Homesman (7)
9) Emily Blunt/Into the Woods (9)
10) Shailene Woodley/The Fault in Our Stars (10)
Hot: Cotillard
Not: Adams and Swank who continue to slide, ever so slightly, out of the picture.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
1) JK Simmons/Whiplash (1)
2) Edward Norton/Birdman (2)
3) Ethan Hawke/Boyhood (3)
4) Mark Ruffalo/Foxcatcher (4)
5) Robert Duvall/The Judge (5)
6) Josh Brolin/Inherent Vice (8)
7) Tom Wilkinson/Selma (6)
8) Miyavi/Unbroken (9)
9) Christoph Waltz/Big Eyes (7)
10) Chris Pine/Into the Woods (10)
Hot: Brolin
Not: Waltz
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
1) Patricia Arquette/Boyhood (1)
2) Meryl Streep/Into the Woods (2)
3) Emma Stone/Birdman (3)
4) Kiera Knightley/The Imitation Game (4)
5) Jessica Chastain/A Most Violent Year (5)
6) Laura Dern/Wild (6)
7) Tilda Swinton/Snowpiercer (8)
8) Naomi Watts/St. Vincent (NR)
9) Carmen Ejogo/Selma (7)
10) Rene Russo/Nightcrawler (NR)
Hot: Wattts and Russo
Not: Ejogo, Anna Kendrick and Chastain's "Interstellar" performance.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
1) The Imitation Game (3)
2) Gone Girl (2)
3) The Theory of Everything (1)
4) Wild (4)
5) Inherent Vice (6)
6) Unbroken (8)
7) American Sniper (NR)
8) Into the Woods (9)
9) Still Alice (7)
10) Obvious Child (NR)
Hot: The Imitation Game. American Sniper and Obvious Child
Not: The Theory of Everything, Unbroken and Still Alice
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
1) Boyhood (1)
2) Birdman (2)
3) The Grand Budapest Hotel (5)
4) Whiplash (3)
5) Selma (4)
6) Nightcrawler (NR)
7) Foxcatcher (6)
8) Mr. Turner (8)
9) A Most Violent Year (7)
10) The LEGO Movie (9)
Hot: The Grand Budapest and Nightcrawler
Not: A Most Violent Year and Wild Tales
ANIMATED FEATURE
1) The LEGO Movie
2) How to Train a Your Dragon 2
3) Big Hero 6
4) The Boxtrolls
5) The Story of Princess Kaguya
6) The Book of Life
7) The Song of the Sea
8) Rio 2
9) Cheatin'
10) The Penguins of Madagascar
DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
1) Citizenfour
2) Life Itself
3) Keep On Keepin' On
4) The Last Days of Vietnam
5) The Overnighters
6) The Case Against 8
7) Virunga
8) Finding Vivan Maier
9) Tales of the Grim Sleeper
10) Salt of the Earth
Foreign Language Film
1) Ida (TFF #40)
2) Wild Tales
3) Force Majeure
4) Leviathan
5) Timbuktu
6) Tangerines
7) The Liberator
8) Accused
9) Corn Island
CINEMATOGRAPHY
1) Birdman
2) Mr. Turner
3) Unbroken
4) Interstellar
5) The Theory of Everything
6) Selma
7) The Grand Budapest Hotel
8) Gone Girl
9) A Most Violent Year
10) Into the Woods
COSTUMES
1) Into the Woods
2) Mr. Turner
3) The Grand Budapest Hotel
4) Malificent
5) Selma
6) Big Eyes
7) The Imitation Game
8) The Theory of Everything
9) Exodus; Gods and Kings
10) Inherent Vice
FILM EDITING
1) Boyhood
2) Birdman
3) The Imitation Game
4) Whiplash
5) Gone Girl
6) Selma
7) Unbroken
8) Foxcatcher
9) Interstellar
10) American Sniper
Makeup/Hair
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1) The Grand Budapest Hotel
2) Guardians of the Galaxy
3) Foxcatcher
4) Malificent
5) The Theory of Everything
6) Noah
7) The Amazing Spiderman 2
ORIGINAL SCORE
1) The Theory of Everything
2) The Imitation Game
3) Interstellar
4) Gone Girl
5) Unbroken
6) The Grand Budapest Hotel
7) The Judge
8) The Homesman
9) How to Train Your Dragon 2
10) Fury
ORIGINAL SONG
1) Glory/Selma
2) Lost Stars/Begin Again
3) Everything is Awesome/The LEGO Movie
4) Mercy is/Noah
5) Big Eyes/ Big Eyes
6) Miracle/Unbroken
7) Yellow Flicker Beat/Hunger Games; Mockingjay Part One
8) I'm not Gonna Miss You/Glen Campbell: I'll Be Me
9) Split the Difference/Boyhood
10) Opportunity/Annie
PRODUCTION DESIGN
1) The Grand Budapest Hotel
2) Into the Woods
3) Mr. Turner
4) Birdman
5) The Imitation Game
6) Interstellar
7) Malificent
8) Unbroken
9) The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies
10) Snowpiercer
SOUND EDITING
1) Interstellar
2) Fury
3) Unbroken
4) Godzilla
5) Birdman
6) American Sniper
7) Dawn of the Planet of the Apes
8) Guardians of the Galaxy
9) Transformers 4
10) Into the Woods
SOUND MIXING
1) Into the Woods
2) Unbroken
3) Transformers 4
4) Interstellar
5) Get On Up
6) Fury
7) American Sniper
8) Whiplash
9) Guardians of the Galaxy
10) The Hobbit; The Battle of the Five Armies
VISUAL EFFECTS
1) Interstellar
2) Dawn of the Planet of the Apes
3) Guardians of the Galaxy
4) The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies
5) Godzilla
6) Transformers 4
7) X-Men: Days of Future Past
8) Malificent
9) Captain America; The Winter Soldier
10) Night at the Museum: Secret of the Tomb
TELLURIDE #41 OSCAR BREAKDOWN
If The FAC was 100% accurate (and it's NOT...remember, past experience has shown The FAC to be 75-80% accurate on Oscar nomination morning with about 80% of the "misses' coming from the #6 spot in each category...except for Best Picture, of course)...
Anyway, if The FAC is 100% accurate, here's what would be the breakdown on Jan. 15:
Telluride #41 Films would have 28 nominations ("Ida" in foreign film would go back to add to the TFF #40 total...which sits at 34 as a result) with another 12 possibilities.
They'd be spread as such:
"Birdman" Ten nominations (the most of any film and likely the only film with double digit nominations): Picture, Director, Actor, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay, Cinematography, Film Editing, Production Design and Sound Editing.
"The Imitation Game" Eight nominations (the second largest number of nominations of any film): Picture, Director, Actor, Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay, Film Editing, Original Score and Production Design. It could also be nominated for Best Costumes.
"Mr. Turner" Three nominations: Cinematography, Costumes and Production Design. "Turner" could also get into the act with nominations for Best Actor and Original Screenplay.
"Foxcatcher" Two nominations: Supporting Actor and Makeup/Hair. "Foxcatcher" has one of the larger "possibility" profiles of any film with "maybes" for Picture, Director, Actor, Original Screenplay and Film Editing.
"Wild": Two nominations: Actress and Original Screenplay. Also a "maybe" for: Supporting Actress.
Foreign Films : "Wild Tales" and "Leviathan" with the aforementioned TFF #40 title, "Ida", a likely nominee.
Documentary Feature: "Keep on Keepin' On" looks like a a nominees with "Tales of the Grim Sleeper" and "Salt of the Earth" as also possibles. You can semi-add "Life Itself" as it screened in Telluride the night before the festival opened in Elks Park.
Two other TFF titles have possible Oscar nominations. "The Homesman" is still in the mix for Best Actress and Best Original Score and "Two Days, One Night" could also see a Best Actress nomination for Marion Cotillard.
Non-Telluride films are led by "Boyhood", "Selma", "The Theory of Everything" and "The Grand Budapest Hotel" all with six probable nominations.
Expected to get five noms are: "Unbroken", "Interstellar" and "Gone Girl"
Four noms to" "Whiplash" and "Into the Woods"
Two nominations for: "The LEGO Movie", "How to Train Your Dragon 2", "Guardians of the Galaxy" and "Godzilla"
The film with most "possible" nominations without currently sitting in ANY nomination spot is "American Sniper" with seven possibilities. I'll bet it gets some on Jan. 15th.
I'll provide some updates in the next couple of posts on the major categories and a FINAL FAC on Jan 14.
UPDATING THE OPENING T-RIDE #42 SALVO
On Dec. 29th I posted a link to a Jeffrey Wells/Hollywood Elsewhere piece about anticipated films for 2015 and any clues therein about potential TFF #42 titles. Wells re-visited the topic days later with more film and information, so I'm doing the same. Wells' updated musings are here:
I posted both Inarritu's "The Revenant" and Cooper's "Black Mass" as initial TFF possibilities from Wells' original list. Now, from his expanded list, let's add:
David Gordon Green's "Our Brand is Crisis". Warner Brothers is distributing and, as I wrote in the Dec. 29th post, I think WB will back in Telluride this fall with something. It's also produced, in part, by George Clooney, thereby invoking my "Unified Clooney Theory".
"Demolition" from "Wild" director Jean Marc Vallee and Fox Searchlight. Jake Gyllenhaal comes to Telluride? Maybe. If the film's any good, Gylly could be in serious Oscar consideration again this time next year.
Todd Haynes "Carol" which I mentioned earlier this year as a TFF #41 possibility. The Weinsteins have the distribution and Haynes played in Telluride in 2007 with "I'm Not Here". Please invite Cate Blanchett and Rooney Mara...thank you.
"The Hateful Eight". Quentin Tarantino is shooting this outside of Telluride right now. Weinsteins have the distribution. Though QT wouldn't normally be on the Telluride potential list, I find it hard to believe that, if it's ready, he'd fail to unveil it in the town that hosted the actual making of the film.
Werner Herzog's "Queen of the Desert"...My expectation at this point is that it'll play either Cannes or Venice and then Telluride.
"Macbeth" from Justin Kurzel, which I had in my 2014 Telluride speculation. Now, I'm thinking maybe Cannes then Telluride in 2015. It's also a Weinstein joint.
Also, the gang at HitFix posted their first attempt at laying out 40 films to anticipate for 2015. You can find it here:
Titles included that echo the Wells post:
"Carol"
"The Revenant"
"Black Mass" (listed as "Untitled Whitey Bulger Project)
"The Hateful Eight"
RUDDERLESS KUDOS
William H. Macy's "Rudderless" (and MTFB obsession) made another end of 2014 top ten list. This one from Zach Hollwedel at The Playlist:
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