Ten Bets for TFF #51-Second Edition / Checking the Distributors: Focus Features /A New Source of T-ride Spec

TEN BETS FOR TFF #51-SECOND EDITION

Here's this week's Ten Bets for TFF #51:

1) Anora/Sean Baker

2) The Seed of the Scared Fig/Mohammad Rasoulof

3) Emilia Perez/Jacques Audiard

4) The Room Next Door/Pedro Almodovar

5) Bird/Andrea Arnold

6) Maria/Pablo Larrain

7) Nickel Boys/Ross

8) The End/Joshua Oppenheimer

9) Queer/Luca Guadagnino

10) Conclave/Edward Berger

Other possibilities:

We Live in Time/Crowley

I'm Still Here/Salles

Parthenope/Sorrentino

In the Hand of Dante/Schnabel

Hard Truths/Leigh

The Piano Lesson/Washington

Untitled Noah Baumbach

Blitz/McQueen

Megalopolis/Coppola

Napoleon (new restoration)/Gance

Leonardo DaVinci/Burns

A Sudden Glimpse to Deeper Things/Cousins

Oh, Canada/Schrader

The Actor/Johnson

CHECKING THE DISTRIBUTORS: FOCUS FEATURES

Today's look at frequent TFF distributors and what films they have with a chance at making the TFF #51 lineup turns to Focus Features.

Here is the moderately recent past of Focus at TFF:

2023- The Holdovers

2022- TAR, Armageddon Time

2021- Belfast, The Card Counter, Red Rocket

2020- The Way I See It

2019- No film

2018- Boy Erased
2017- Darkest Hour
2015- Suffragette
2012- Hyde Park on Hudson
2006- Catch a Fire

Focus' big player this fall is from All Quiet on the Western Front director Edward Berger.  Conclave stars Ralph Fiennes, Stanley Tucci, John Lithgow and Isabella Rossellini.

Its IMDb description:

"Cardinal Lawrence is tasked with leading one of the world's most secretive and ancient events, selecting a new Pope, where he finds himself at the center of a conspiracy that could shake the very foundation of The Church."

Also in Focus' basket is Robert Eggers Nosferatu set for release on Dec. 25th and Morgan Neville's Piece by Piece an animated documentary about Pharrell Williams set to be released Oct. 11th.

My assessment is that Conclave has a decent shot at a Venice/Telluride play.  Though unlikely, both Nosferatu and Piece by Piece can't be totally ruled out.  The chances:

Conclave 50%

Piece by Piece 20%

Nosferatu 15%.

 

A NEW SOURCE OF T-RIDE SPEC

I'm always looking for fresh insight into what might make the Telluride lineup and this week stumbled across Ezra Cubero's WordPress column about the fall fest season.  So, I took a look at what Cubero had predicted last year for Telluride in a post from June 22, 2023 and you know what, it was more than decent.  Cubero had predicted 16 films for TFF #50 and got nine right.  Not bad...not bad at all.  So, I thought it was worth my time, and maybe yours, to see what Cubero thinks for TFF #51.  And here's what that is:

Films that are flat out predicted to play TFF #51:

Anora

Bird

Hard Truths

Nickel Boys

The Piano Lesson

A Real Pain

The Seed of the Sacred Fig

Above you' ll see that this week's Ten Bets includes Anora, Bird, Nickel Boys and The Seed of the Sacred Fig.  I also have Hard Truths and The Piano Lesson on the possibilities list.  I do not have A Real Pain on either list as it premiered at Sundance.

Then there are the films he refers to a "Maybes" for Telluride:

The Actor

All We Imagine as Light

The Apprentice

Conclave

A Different Man

Emilia Perez

The End

The Fire Inside

Maria

Memoir of a Snail

Queer

The Room Next Door

From the "Maybes" list I have Conclave, Emilia Perez, The End, Maria, Queer and The Room Next Door all as "Bets"...at least at the moment.

"Maybe" films that are also appearing in my "possibilities" list include The Actor.

As for the other "Maybes"...

All We Imagine as Light might have to go on my list of possibles.

The Apprentice, at least for now, seems dicey as a call for any festival.

A Different Man played Sundance.

The Fire Inside (Flint Strong)...I don't know how I feel about this one.  The change of release dates to an awards friendly Dec. 25th, the fact that its coming from Amazon/MGM and that the script is from Barry Jenkins (who is also listed as a producer) screams a Telluride screening but I had been told at one point, from what I feel is a reliable source, that it's not a "Telluride" film.  So...I dunno.

Memoir of a Snail...intriguing. from IFC Films and won the top prize at the Annecy Animation Fest.  Might have to move this to my list of possibles.

Cubero's complete list for 2024 Fall Fests (Venice, TIFF, NYFF in addition to Telluride) is here.

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Checking the Distributors: Sony Pictures Classics / Emilia Perez Trailer / Megalopolis Still Costing Coppola

CHACKING GTHE DISTRIBUTORS: SONY PICTURES CLASSICS

I think it's fair to say that no distributor has had a longer term relationship with the Telluride Film Festival than Sony Pictures Classics.  SPC's presence at TFF has been a staple for many years.  His a reminder of the films from SPC that have played the fest over the last ten years:

2013: The Invisible Woman, Jodorowsky's Dune, The Lunchbox, The Past, Tim's Vermeer.

2014: Foxcatcher, Leviathan, Merchants of Doubt, Mr. Turner, Red Army, Salt of the Earth and Wild Tales.

2015: Son of Saul

2016: The Eagle Huntress, Toni Erdmann, Maudie, Norman: The Moderate Rise...

2017: Fantastic Woman, Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool, Foxtrot, Loveless, The Rider.

2018: The White Crow

2019: Pain and Glory, The Climb, Lyrebird

2020 (if it had happened): The Duke, The Father, The Truffle Hunters

2021: Julia, The Duke

2022: One Fine Morning, Living, The Return of Tanya Tucker, Salvatore: Shoemaker of Dreams, Hallelujah: Leonard Cohen, a Journey, a Song.

2023: The Teachers' Lounge, They Shot the Piano Player, Daddio, Strange Way of Life

This year SPC could bring Pedro Almodovar's The Room Next Door, Walter Salles I'm Still Here and an outside possibility is Sylvain Chomet's animated The Magnificent Life of Marcel Pagnol (though IMDb Pro has it listed as still filming).

The Room Next Door is Almodovar's first English language feature film.  Last year his Strange Way of Life was at TFF #50 and the director has had a long history with Telluride.

Walter Salles' I'm Still Here also has a TFF history (Central Station 1998, The Motorcycle Diaries 2004) but it has been a long time since he last had a film in the San Juans.

Chances:

The Room Next Door 50%

I'm Still Here 35%

Marcel Pagnol 10%

EMILIA PEREZ TRAILER

We have a foreign language trailer for Jacques Audiard's Cannes prize winner Emilia Perez.  Here it is from YouTube:

MEGALOPOLIS STILL COSTING COPPOLA

We noted last week that Lionsgate had picked up Francis Ford Coppola's passion project.  Since then The Hollywood Reporter reported last week that the $120 million deal did not include any money for marketing.  THR's Aaron Couch and Kim Masters wrote:

"Lionsgate, it appears, will not be paying for marketing. Instead, Coppola is expected to provide the spend himself. Lionsgate intends to put the feature on more than 1,500 screens, which sources in the distribution world say would require around $15 million to $20 million in marketing. It’s unclear how much Megalopolis’ campaign will entail."

I'm just going to say it, I hope Megalopolis plays TFF #51 and I think it could happen.

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Ten Bets for TFF #51 / Coppola and Megalopolis Get a Distributor / Blitz Is Seen / No Nightbitch at TFF

TEN BETS FOR TFF #51 

I've been doing the "Ten Bets" format as a way of predicting Telluride lineups for since 2011.  

Here's last year's first Ten Bets with the films that actually played TFF #50 in Bold.

1) The Holdovers/Payne

2) May December/Haynes

3) Nyad/Chin and Vasarhelyi

4) Monster/Kore-eda

5) (All of Us)Strangers/Haigh

6) El Conde/Larrain

7) Poor Things/Lanthimos

8) Anatomy of a Fall/Triet

9) The American Buffalo/Burns

10) The End/Oppenheimer

So 6 of 10.

In previous years the correct ratios were:

2011: 8/10
2012: 5/10
2013: 6/10
2014: 7/10
2015: 4/10
2016: 3/10
2017: 7/10
2018: 5/10

2019: 4/10

2020: No fest

2021: 8/10

2022: 6/10

2023: 6/10

That puts the average of correct picks on this first whirl at 5.8.

That being said, I feel less confidence about this year's first Ten Bets than maybe any other year.  Sooo... with great trepidation...here are 2024's first Ten Bets for TFF:

1) Anora/Sean Baker

2) The Seed of the Scared Fig/Mohammad Rasoulof

3) Emilia Perez/Jacques Audiard

4) The Room Next Door/Pedro Almodovar

5) Bird/Andrea Arnold

6) Maria/Pablo Larrain

7) Oh, Canada/Paul Schrader

8) The End/Joshua Oppenheimer

9) Queer/Luca Guadagnino

10) Conclave/Edward Berger

Other possibilities:

We Live in Time/Crowley

I'm Still Here/Salles

Parthenope/Sorrentino

In the Hand of Dante/Schnabel

Hard Truths/Leigh

The Piano Lesson/Washington

Untitled Noah Baumbach

Nickel Boys/Ross

Blitz/McQueen

Megalopolis/Coppola

Now we'll see how this all plays out.

COPPOLA AND MEGALOPOLIS GET A DISTRIBUTOR

Lionsgate has acquired Francis Ford Coppola's Megalopolis for U.S. distribution.  The film has been set for a Sept. 27th release date putting it in position to potentially play TFF and/or Toronto.  Lionsgate has had an occasional presence at Telluride over the years with their last appearance in 2022 with Living.  

So it appears that the possibility of a Telluride play is still open.

Here's that story from The Playlist.

BLITZ IS SEEN

Jordan Ruimy at World of Reel reports that Steve McQueen's Blitz has been screened in front of real humans in New York and London.  So, at least some of the mystery about its existence has been removed. 

Now, none of this means that Blitz will play any festival but it also doesn't preclude that possibility that it could play T-ride.

I still think that Blitz World Premiering at the BFI/London Fest is the most likely scenario for the film.

Here's that story from WOR.

NO NIGHTBITCH AT TFF

The Toronto International Film Festival  announced their first set of selections for their 2024 edition this week and included on that list was Marielle Heller's Nightbitch.  MTFB readers saw that in my look at Searchlight films that it seemed like their most likely TFF possibility.  As Toronto has announced that the film will be a World Premiere that implies that TFF #50 is off the table.

This is the link to that story from Variety.

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Looking at Distributors: Searchlight / From Out of Left Field / More as The Bikeriders Rolls out

CHECKING THE DISTRBUTORS: SEARCHLIGHT

Searchlight (and before it, Fox Searchlight) has been a stalwart in the TFF Universe for many years.  My running list of films from them goes back to 2004 and includes five Oscar Best Picture winners and a slew of nominations:

2023: Poor Things, All of Us Strangers, The Last Repair Shop

2022: Empire of Light 

2021: The French Dispatch 

2020: Nomadland (Best Picture Oscar) 

2019: A Hidden Life 
2018: The Favourite, Can You Ever Forgive Me?, The Old Man and the Gun 
2017: The Shape of Water (Best Picture Oscar), Battle of the Sexes 
2016: No Show
2015: He Named Me Malala 
2014: Birdman (Best Picture Oscar), Wild 
2013: 12 Years a Slave (Best Picture Oscar) 
2012: No Show
2011: Shame, The Descendants 
2010: Never Let Me Go, 127 Hours, Black Swan 
2009: No Show
2008: Slumdog Millionaire (Best Picture Oscar) 
2007: Juno, The Savages
2006: The Last King of Scotland, The Namesake 
2005: Bee Season 
2004: Kinsey 

But as you can also see there have been years that Searchlight was not a presence at TFF: 2009, 2012 and 2016.  2024 might be one of those off years.

I've scoured what Searchlight has set for release and what films are in post-production and the films that are or could be ready and feel like something Telluride might be interested in are meager.  As a matter of fact, at the moment I can only find Marielle Heller's Nightbitch as Searchlight's only real player.

The film's pedigree sounds like a real TFF possibility: Heller was in T-ride in with Can You Ever Forgive Me? in 2018.  The film's star, Amy Adams was a tribute recipient in 2016 and Searchlight set the film's release for Dec. 6th.  But...

The film has been described as perhaps being too odd and difficult to promote.  Here's part of the plot summary listed at IMDb Pro:

"A woman, thrown into the stay-at-home routine of raising a toddler in the suburbs, slowly embraces the feral power deeply rooted in motherhood, as she becomes increasingly aware of the bizarre and undeniable signs that she may be turning into a dog."

See what I mean.  On the other hand, T-ride programmed Poor Things last year to great success.  So...maybe?

So I'm giving Nightbitch a 30% shot at TFF #51 and I suppose there is the weakest of possibilities that we might see Nate Parker's (The Birth of a Nation) Solitary.  I give it a 10% chance.

FROM OUT OF LEFT FIELD

So I was perusing Jordan Ruimy's World of Reel for this and that and came across this story that Jordan posted on Saturday headlined:

Gia Coppola's ‘The Last Showgirl' Aims for Fall Fests; Oscar Nominee, Pamela Anderson?

Intrigued, I opened the story up and read some very interesting speculation including these choice comments:

"Here’s another potential title for Venice/Telluride."

and

"Coppola’s last film, “Mainstream,” was part of the pandemic-afflicted 2020 edition of Venice, but I’m hearing this one’s a worthier film and, more importantly, is a major showcase for Anderson. It’s also very likely headed to Telluride — that fest’s director, Julie Huntsinger, hasn’t locked her lineup just yet, but “The Last Showgirl” is a major possibility."

Could it be true? Ruimy seems to think so.

Additionally Coppola brought Palo Alto to T-ride in 2013 and would have had Mainstream there in 2020 had the fest not been bagged due to Covid.

We'll have to keep an eye on this.

Here's WOR's full story.

MORE AS THE BIKERIDERS ROLLS OUT

Ahead of its release this week, here's more for Jeff Nichol's The Bikeriders, a TFF #50 alum:

Austin Butler form The Hollywood Reporter's X account.

Austin Butler and Norman Reedus from Car and Driver.

Jodi Comer from The Bikeriders film X account.

And a 60 second look at the film from PopCrave.

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Steve McQueen's Blitz-Off the Table? / Screen Daily and the Venice Lineup / Bikeriders Riding Into Theaters Next Week

STEVE MC QUEEN'S BLITZ-OFF THE TABLE?

I wrote in the MTFB May 30th post:

"I'd reallllly...love for Blitz to get to TFF and McQueen has a solid past with the fest, but...given the story is about the blitz of London by the Nazis in WWII, I can see McQueen wanting to hold the World Premiere as a part of the London Film Fest in October."

Now, we're hearing that Blitz may not be in play for TFF or Venice adding some credence to the possibility of my theory.

Jordan Ruimy writing for his website Word of Reel has been following this Blitz situation this past week posting on June 10th an article headlined: Where Is Steve McQueen's Blitz?

Then yesterday Ruimy had more to say in an article titled: Blitz Not Submitted to Venice or Telluride.  In that piece Ruimy writes:

"...until I hear anything different, it looks like “Blitz” might not premiere on the Lido. Same with Telluride, which is said to still be in hot pursuit of the film."

A couple of takeaways here.  First, if Ruimy is correct then Blitz is seemingly off the TFF table.  BUT...that last sentence suggests that T-ride is still on the hunt to land the film.

Here's where I am.  Unless we find out more between now and next Thursday when my first "Ten Bets" for Telluride will be posted, Blitz will not be on that list.  But, I'm keeping the door open the slimmest of cracks on the basis that Ruimy's correct and the fest is still trying to get it.

SCREEN DAILY'S VENICE SPECULATION

Screen Daily posted their speculative piece about the films that could be at The Venice Film Festival on Monday.

I've been through the article trying to pick out films that might make their initial bow in Italy and then do the quick turnaround to come to Colorado.  From their list, here are the films that I think have the best shot at that (in the order they appear on the article):

Luca Guadagnino's Queer

Pablo Larrain's Maria

Edward Berger's Conclave

Julian Schnabel's In the Hand of Dante

Walter Salles' I'm Still Here

Mike Leigh's Hard Truths

Joshua Oppenheimer's The End

Malcolm Washington's The Piano Lesson

As a side note, Screen Daily included Steve McQueen's Blitz as a Venice possibility but see the above story.

BIKERIDERS RIDING INTO THEATERS NEXT WEEK

I've made no secret of the fact that I really enjoyed Jeff Nichols' The Bikeriders last year at TFF #50 but, admittedly, that feeling wasn't universal.  In my polls post-fest, my group of industry pros ended with it ranked 9th of the 12 films that had enough eyeballs on it. The People's Telluride poll had it at 10th of 16 and the Composite poll landed it at #8 out the 10 films that met the criteria for making that field.  

It seems, however that critics have embraced it a bit better.  Metacritic has it it with a respectable 73 and its Rotten Tomatoes score is a better than respectable 84.

At any rate, the film opens next week in theaters and consequently we're seeing a lot of P.R. about it ahead of that.  Here's a taste:

Director Jeff Nichols with The Hollywood Reporter.

Austin Butler via TheBikeriders X account.

Austin Butler and Jodie Comer from IGN.

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Checking Distributors: NEON / The End and Venice (and Telluride?)

 CHECKING DISTRIBUTORS: NEON

Distributor NEON is a relative newcomer to the TFF scene but their presence over the last few years has been very noticeable.  Here's the NEON lineup from past TFFs:

2023: Anatomy of a Fall (Oscar winner for Best Original Screenplay and nominated for four others including Best Picture), La Chimera, Perfect Days (Oscar nominated for Best International Feature), The Royal Hotel.

2022: Broker, All the Beauty and the Bloodshed (Oscar nominated for Best Documentary)

2021: Petite Maman, Spencer (Oscar nominated for Best Actress-Kristen Stewart) , Flee (Oscar nominated for Best Animated Film, Best International Film and Best Documentary), Three Minutes-A Lengthening

2020: Ammonite*** if the fest had happened

2019: Parasite (nominated for six Academy Awards and won four including Best Picture and Director). Portrait of a Lady on Fire, Amazing Grace

2018: Border (Oscar nominated for Best Makeup and Hair), The Biggest Little Farm

2017: None

2016: The B-Side: Elsa Dorfman's Portrait Photography

For 2024 NEON has four films that might fit the bill for T-ride:

Sean Baker's Palme d'Or winning Anora, Mohammad Rasoulof's The Seed of the Sacred Fig, Joshua Oppenheimer's The End (see below) and Duke Johnson's The Actor.  In each case the director has had work at Telluride previously  In the case of both Rasoulof and Oppenheimer, they've had films at Telluride more than once.

Chances for these four films at TFF #51:

Anora 50%

The Seed of the Sacred Fig 50%

The End 45%

The Actor 25%

THE END AND VENICE (AND TELLURIDE?)

Jordan Ruimy at World of Reel wrote on Saturday that he was hearing that Joshua Oppenheimer's The End will not play at Venice but that Telluride was still a real possibility.

Here's what Ruimy says at the start of his report:

"Hearing shaky things about this one. It might have the same fate as Audrey Diwan’s “Emmanuelle” and not show up at either Cannes or Venice … However, Telluride is a real possibility for a world premiere. Just what I’m hearing."

You can read the entire piece at the link above.

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Time to Look at Distributors: A24 / Pics from The Bikeriders / So, About Anora

TIME TO LOOK AT DISTRBUTORS: A24

We're in early June which means that Cannes is done; Venice announcing its lineup is on the horizon and the first "Ten Bets:" for TFF #51 is two weeks away.  That means our annual summer review of what frequent TFF distribution companies have in the various film larders is nigh and we try to get a sense, from that perspective, about films that could be at Telluride on Labor Day weekend.

This year we start with A24.  I might not start there most years but I'm prodded by an article posted from Deadline.com that points to A24's fall crop of films making it an easy place to begin.

Last year A24 had four films make the TFF grade:

The Zone of Interest

Occupied City

Tuesday

Janet Planet

Previous years at TFF for A24:

2015-Room

2016-Moonlight

2017-First Reformed, Lady Bird, Lean on Pete

2019-Uncut Gems, Waves, First Cow

2021-C'mon C'mon, Red Rocket, Marcel the Shell with Shoes On

2022-Aftersun, Close

In order of mention, these are the seven films that Deadline's Anthony D'Alessandro's piece:

The Front Room/Eggers Brothers

A Different Man/Aaron Shimberg

We Live in Time/John Crowley

Heretic/Scott Beck and Bryan Wood

Babygirl/Halona Reijn

On Becoming a Guinea Fowl/Rungano Nyoni

Parthenope/Paolo Sorrentino

My assessment of these film's chances of playing TFF:

Parthenope 50%

We Live in Time 45%

Babygirl 40%

On Becoming a Guinea Fowl 35%

Heretic 5%

The Front Room 5%

A Different Man 5%

An outside shot might be David Lowery's Mother Mary which has been in post-production since July of 2023.

Of the list, We Live in Time would be at the top of my list of these titles to actually see with my own eyeballs in T-ride.

Here's the complete Deadline piecenull.

PICS FROM THE BIKERIDERS

A late breaking entry from TFF #50 is Jeff Nichols The Bikeriders.  The film is set for release on June 21st.  Back when it screened at Telluride it looked like it would be a fall release but those plans changed.

Nevertheless, I was a moderately big fan of the film back at TFF and am looking forward to its release.  When it screened at Telluride there was a good deal of buzz about Jodie Comer's performance especially.  It'll be interesting to see if she can get some buzz going here at the beginning of summer.

Anywho...The Hollywood Reporter has some new pics from the film.

You can see them here.

null

SO, ABOUT ANORA

Yes, the Sean Baker film won the Plame d'Or at Cannes a couple of weeks back.  Discerning MTFB readers may have noticed that I had sort of edged away from including it as a TFF possibility because I was sure that I had seen somewhere that a summer release was going to happen.

After it won the Palme, I saw some speculation that if could play Telluride.  I reached out to a couple of friends who told me no such summer release was happening.  

As if to bolster that point, Variety and other sources reported Tuesday that Anora will be released on Oct. 18th.  That puts it in good shape to be a TFF selection and actually will likely make it among the 10 films in MTFB's initial "Ten Bets" for TFF #51 coming in two weeks on June 20th.

Here's the Variety story on the release date:null 

And...turns out I didn't make the summer release date story up.  A now deleted post on X from The Film Stage from April 24th said that:

 

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More Venice Musings / Sundance Theory

MORE MUSINGS ON VENICE

We're still several weeks away from any announcement concerning the films which will be chosen for this year's Venice Film Festival but already there's some serious speculation about what those may be.

In my last post I started to look at that with an overview of World of Reel's first stab at figuring out the Venice lineup.  Today I look at a Variety article by Nick Vivarelli that was posted last Thursday.  among the films Vivarelli predicts there are five that feel like possibilities for TFF #51:

Maria/Pablo Larrain

Queer/Luca Guadagnino

In the Hands of Dante/Julian Schnabel

Hard Truths/Mike Leigh

I'm Still Here/Walter Salles

All five of these directors have had at least one film make a Telluride lineup in the past.  These five films also were included on the WOR list I posted last Thursday.

See the complete article from Variety here.

SUNDANCE THEORY

Seems like I do one of these every year now.  This is the post where I suggest that there might be a Sundance feature film that cracks the TFF lineup.  

Telluride history and commentary suggest that TFF has a standard that films that play Labor Day weekend must be either a World or North American premiere.  But there have been exceptions:

An Education in 2009

Manchester by the Sea in 2016

The Report in 2019

The Father (would have screened had TFF happened) in 2020

Living in 2022

There are others.

In some of these cases a TFF Tribute was involved:  Casey Affleck in 2016, Adam Driver in 2019 and Anthony Hopkins would have been a Tribute recipient in 2020.

Last year I was all over A Little Prayer doing the Sundance/Telluride thing.  As you know that didn't happen.  BUT...I have a candidate for this happening again in 2024!

Readers...I give you Nora Fingscheidt's The Outrun starring Saorise Ronan.

Here's the case.  Ronan was rumored to have been set to get a Tribute in 2017 with Lady Bird's screening put that purportedly fell through.  I have often thought that Telluride would look for a way to make a Ronan tribute happen.  This could be that opportunity especially if the fest invites Blitz, which also features Ronan.  Perhaps Ronan would pull double duty as Driver did in 2019 with both The Report and Marriage Story making the TFF #46 lineup.

How confident am I about this...not that much but, like I said, it's happened before.

For hoots, here's the trailer for The Outrun:

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