Well, thar she blows! The Great White Whale that IS OSCAR beaches itself/is harpooned for all to see in about 8 hours...
Here's the skinny...for all 24 categories... (with some commentary along the way, because I can't help myself):
Live Action Short: The most unpredictable category of the night...I'm going with Pentecost...chance that this prediction is correct 25%.
Animated Short: Smart money says: The Fantastic Flying Books of Morris Lesmore.
Doc Short: Saving Face
Sound Mixing: Hugo
Sound Editing: Hugo
Visual Effects: The "experts" say Rise of the Planet of the Apes, I'm going with Hugo.
Doc Feature: A semi-tight category. My pick is Paradise Lost 3
Makeup: The Iron Lady
Costume: The Artist
Original Song: Man or Muppet from The Muppets
Original Score: The Artist
Art Direction: Hugo
Cinematography: The Tree of Life is my pick, although there is a good deal of sentiment for The Artist and Hugo
Editing: The Artist
Animated Feature: Rango
Foreign Language Film: A Separation
THE BIG EIGHT...
Adapted Screenplay: The Descendants (Another writing Oscar for Mrs. Patterson's Telluride buddy, Alexander Payne).
Original Screenplay: Some dissension amongst the "experts" here. Most say Midnight in Paris and I'm going with that but there is some sentiment that The Artist might pick this up as well. Personally, I still think the best screenplay of the year is Asghar Farhadi's brilliant script for A Separation.
Supporting Actor: Christopher Plummer/Beginners...if there IS a surprise, maybe Von Sydow.
Supporting Actress: Octavia Spencer/The Help
Actor: Most of the "Oscarologists" are saying Jean Dujardin for The Artist. I'm going with Clooney for The Descendants.
Actress: Viola Davis/The Help (though a Meryl Streep win wouldn't be all that big a surprise).
Director: Michel Hazanavicius/The Artist (Possible upset, and not a big one, Scorsese).
Picture: The Artist
My picks have The Artist winning 5 Oscar, Hugo 4, and The Descendants and The Help with 2 each. These being the only films with multiple wins tonight. The Artist could conceivably end the night with 7 or 8. Winning all 10 that it's nominated for is unlikely.
If I'm right, Telluride's 38th edition will have produced films that win 8 Oscars tonight.
Still disappointed in no nominations for Fassbender/Mulligan/McQueen/Morgan for Shame !
Let's see what happens!
I plan to live tweet at least to some extent tonight so join me @Gort2 on Twitter. Post mortem tomorrow!