MTFB OSCAR NOM UPDATE: LEAD ACTING AND MORE
Here's an update for my predictions of the lead acting categories, cinematography, editing and production design for the 94th Academy Awards. As always, TFF #48 films/performers are in Bold. The last position for these predictions is indicated to the right in parentheses. These categories were last predicted on Dec. 16th.
BEST ACTRESS
1) Kristen Stewart/Spencer (1)
2) Nicole Kidman/Being the Ricardos (2)
3) Jessica Chastain/The eyes of Tammy Faye (4)
4) Olivia Colman/The Lost Daughter (3)
5) Lady Gaga/House of Gucci (5)
Alternates: Alana Haim/Licorice Pizza and Rachel Zegler/West Side Story
BEST ACTOR
1) Will Smith/King Richard (1)
2) Benedict Cumberbatch/The Power of the Dog (2)
3) Andrew Garfield/tick, tick...BOOM (3)
4) Denzel Washington/The Tragedy of Macbeth (4)
5) Peter Dinklage/Cyrano (5)
Alternates: Leonardo DiCaprio/Don't Look Up and Clifton Collins/Jockey
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
1) Dune (1)
2) The Power of the Dog (2)
3) West Side Story (4)
4) Belfast (3)
5) The Tragedy of Macbeth (3)
Alternates: Nightmare Alley and Spencer
BEST EDITNG
1) Dune (2)
2) Belfast (1)
3) The Power of he Dog (4)
4) West Side Story (3)
5) Licorice Pizza (New)
Alternates: Don't Look Up and tick, tick...BOOM
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
1) Dune (2)
2) Nightmare Alley (1)
3) West Side Story (3)
4) The French Dispatch (4)
5) Belfast (Alt.)
Alternates: The Tragedy of Macbeth and Being the Ricardos
THE FILM STAGE'S TOP 50 OF 2021
The Film Stage named it's top 50 films of 2021 yesterday and nine TFF #48 films made the list:
46) Flee
36) The French Dispatch
29) C'mon C'mon
17) Spencer
15) Bergman Island
13) Petite Maman
9) Red Rocket
8) The Card Counter
2) The Power of the Dog
COMPARE AND CONTRAST
I decided to take a peek at how my Oscar picks for Best Picture (at the moment) stack up compared to some of the real pros in the business of Oscar prognostication. I compared my predicted ten BP nominees to those of Clayton Davis/Variety, Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter, Sasha Stone Awards Daily, Matt Neglia/Next Best Picture and Erik Anderson of Awards Watch to see how each of us are currently predicting the Best Picture race and how many nominations each BP player is predicted to get.
For example, Here's my current BP list in order of likelihood of nomination with my predicted total of nominations to the right of each film:
Belfast-11
The Power of the Dog-10
West Side Story-9
Dune-10
Licorice Pizza-4
King Richard-5
CODA-3
Don't Look Up-4
tick, tick...BOOM-3
Being the Ricardos-3
Now lets' look at the Professionals:
CLAYTON DAVIS/VARIETY
Belfast-10
The Power of the Dog-11
Dune-10
West Side Story-8
Licorice Pizza-6
CODA-2
King Richard-5
The Tragedy of Macbeth-2
Drive My Car-4
Don't Look Up-4
As you can see, Clayton has Drive My Car and The Tragedy of Macbeth getting a BP nomination in the place of my choices of tick, tick...BOOM and Being the Ricardos.
SCOTT FEINBERG/THE HOLLYWOOD REPORTER
Belfast-11
The Power of the Dog-10
West Side Story-12
King Richard-6
Licorice Pizza-3
tick, tick...BOOM-2
Dune-11
CODA-2
Don't Look Up-3
Spiderman: No Way Home-3
Scott has Spiderman in where I have Being the Ricardos.
SASHA STONE/AWARDS DAILY
Belfast-7
West Side Story-12
The Power of the Dog-8
King Richard-6
Dune-10
Licorice Pizza-4
CODA-3
Nightmare Alley-7
Being the Ricardos-4
Spiderman: No Way Home-6
Sasha has Spiderman and Nightmare Alley in (and doing well) instead of my tick, tick...BOOM and Don't Look Up
MATT NEGLIA/NEXT BEST PICTURE
Belfast-9
The Power of the Dog-8
West Side Story-9
Licorice Pizza-4
Dune-10
King Richard-4
CODA-4
tick, tick...BOOM-5
Don't Look Up-3
Drive My Car-3
Matt has Drive My Car in rather than my pick: Being the Ricardos
ERIK ANDERSON/AWARDS WATCH
Belfast-10
The Power of the Dog-9
Dune-9
West Side Story-8
King Richard-6
Licorice Pizza-4
CODA-3
The Tragedy of Macbeth-4
The Lost Daughter-3
Drive My Car-2
Erik's list includes The Tragedy of Macbeth, The Lost Daughter and Drive My Car rather than my inclusions of Don't Look Up, tick, tick...BOOM and Being the Ricardos.
Conclusions:
Here's what all six of us agree will be Best Picture nominees announced on the morning of Feb. 8th:
Belfast, The Power of the Dog, West Side Story, Dune, King Richard, Licorice Pizza and CODA. Those seven films seem to in good shape. Then it's a scrum for the last three spots.
Don't Look Up is on four of these lists.
On three lists you will find: tick, tick...BOOM and Drive My Car.
On two lists each are: The Tragedy of Macbeth, Spiderman: No Way Home and Being the Ricardos
Nightmare Alley and The Lost Daughter are on only one set of predictions
It might be interesting to see who has what film as their 11th choice:
Me: Nightmare Alley
Davis: Being the Ricardos
Feinberg: The Lost Daughter
Stone: Don't Look Up
Anderson and Neglia do not indicate their 11th place choices on their websites.
The most likely film to get double digit nominations is Dune followed closely by Belfast, West Side Story and The Power of the Dog.
Take a look at the experts:
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