Sunday, March 27, 2022

Final Oscar Winner Predictions/ Ten Categories That Will Determine Your Oscar Pool / Final Oscar Predictions from the Experts

FINAL OSCAR WINNER PREDICTIONS 


BEST PICTURE

1) The Power of the Dog
2) CODA
3) Belfast
4) King Richard
5) West Side Story
6) Dune
7) Licorice Pizza
8) Don't Look Up
9) Drive My Car
10) Nightmare Alley

Comment: Most of the Oscarologists are saying CODA wins in a close race.  I's sticking with The Power of the Dog mostly because my TFF metric that has been right (The Composite Telluride Ratings).


BEST DIRECTION

1) Jane Campion/The Power of the Dog
2) Kenneth Branagh/Belfast
3) Steven Spielberg/West Side Story
4) Licorice Pizza/Paul Thomas Anderson
5) Ryusuke Hamaguchi/Drive My Car


BEST ACTRESS

1) Jessica Chastain/The Eyes of Tammy Faye
2) Penelope Cruz/Parallel
3) Nicole Kidman/Being the Ricardos
4) Kristen Stewart/Spencer
5) Olivia Colman/The Lost Daughter

Comment: Chastain seems to have slight edge but the move to Cruz as a possible winner this last week has been palpable.


BEST ACTOR

1) Will Smith/King Richard
2) Benedict Cumberbatch/The Power of the Dog
3) Andrew Garfield/tick, tick...BOOM
4) Denzel Washington/The Tragedy of Macbeth
5) Javier Bardem/Being the Ricardos


BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1) Ariana DeBose/West Side Story
2) Kirsten Dunst/The Power of the Dog
3) Aunjanue Ellis/King Richard
4) Jesse Buckley/The Lost Daughter
5) Judi Dench/Belfast


BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1) Troy Kotsur/CODA
2) Kodi Smit-McPhee/The Power of the Dog
3) Ciaran Hinds/Belfast
4) Jesse Plemons/The Power of the Dog
5) J.K. Simmons/Being the Ricardos


BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1) Belfast
2) Licorice Pizza
3) Don't Look Up
4) The Worst Person in the World
5) King Richard


BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1) CODA
2) The Power of the Dog
3) The Lost Daughter
4) Drive My Car
5) Dune.


BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

1) Summer of Soul
2) Flee
3) Attica
4) Ascension
5) Writing with Fire


BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

1) Encanto
2) The Mitchells vs. the Machines
3) Luca
4) Flee
5) Raya and the Last Dragon


BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE

1) Drive My Car
2) The Worst Person in the World
3) Flee
4) The Hand of God
5) Luana: A Yak in the Classroom


BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

1) Dune
2) The Power of the Dog
3) The Tragedy of Macbeth
4) Nightmare Alley
5) West Side Story


BEST EDITING

1) Dune
2) King Richard
3) The Power of the Dog
4) Don't Look Up
5) tick, tick...BOOM


BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

1) Dune
2) Nightmare Alley
3) West Side Story
4) The Power of the Dog
5) The Tragedy of Macbeth


BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

1) Dune
2) The Power of the Dog
3) Encanto
4) Don't Look Up
5) Parallel Mothers


BEST ORIGINAL SONG

1) No Time to Die/No Time to Die
2) Dos Oruguitas/Encanto
3) Be Alive/King Richard
4) Down to Joy/Belfast
5) Somehow You Do/Four Good Days


BEST COSTUMES

1) Cruella
2) Dune
3) Nightmare Alley
4) West Side Story
5) Cyrano


BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

1) Dune
2) Spiderman: No Way Home
3) No Time to Die
4) Shang Chi
5) Free Guy


BEST SOUND

1) Dune
2) No Time to Die
3) West Side Story
4) The Power of the Dog
5) Belfast


BEST MAKEUP/HAIR

1) The Eyes of Tammy Faye
2) Cruella
3) Dune
4) Coming 2 America
5) House of Gucci


BEST ANIMATED SHORT

1) Robin Robin
2) Bestia
3) The Windshield Wiper
3) Affairs of the Art
5) Boxballet


BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT

1) The Queen of Basketball
2) Audible
3) Three Songs for Benezir
4) When We Were Bullies
5) Lead Me Home


BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT

1) The Long Goodbye
2) Al Kachuu-Take and Run
3) The Dress
4) Please Hold
5) On My Mind


TEN CATEGORIES THAT WILL DETERMINE YOUR OSCAR POOL

The ten categories with enough mystery/uncertainty that will determine your Oscar pool winners tonight:

Best Picture:  Experts say CODA in a squeaker over The Power of the Dog with a whisper or two that Belfast could still upset on a preferential ballot.

Best Actress: One of the most fluid categories of the year.  Remember when Kristen Stewart was supposedly a "lock"?  The experts are leaning toward Jessica Chastain for The Eyes of Tammy Faye but within the last week there has been a real move toward Penelope Cruz.

Best Original Screenplay:  Belfast seems to be out front but don't be surprised if Paul Thomas Anderson's Licorice Pizza comes out of the envelope.

Best Adapted Screenplay:  A barn burner between CODA and The Poser of the Dog...just like Best Picture.  The Lost Picture as surprise is not totally out of the question.

Best Score: Likely Hans Zimmer wins his second Oscar for Dune but it could be The Power of the Dog or even Encanto.

Best Editing: Another probable Dune win though King Richard's win at the Editing Guild (A.C.E. Eddies) could suggest a different outcome.

Best Cinematography:  Dune leads but "The Dog" is nipping at its heals.

And, as always, the Shorts categories likely will have a big influence on who wins your Oscar pool.  In Live Action Short The Long Goodbye seems like the only near lock in any of the three categories.  In the Short Doc category The Queen of Basketball and Audible seem to be in a tight race much like Robin Robin and Bestia in Animated Short.


FINAL OSCAR PREDICTIONS FROM THE EXPERTS










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