Obsessing about the Telluride Film Festival and the film awards season since 2008!
"The best blog out there for predicting what will be going to Telluride."-Matt Neglia, Next Best Picture
"The Nostradamus of Telluride"
-Tim Appelo, Movies for Grownups
Well, here we are. We probably know some things with a reasonable degree of certainty at this poinmt after reveals from Toronto, Venice and New York.
After Toronto's Monday announcement we think this is true:
These seven films appear locked into Telluride:
Hamnet
Ballad of a Small Player
It Was Just an Accident
Nouvelle Vague
Sentimental Value
The Secret Agent
Tuner
These are film's from Venice that feel like they might play there and then come over for TFF #52:
La Grazia
Jay Kelly
The Wizard of the Kremlin
House of Dynamite
Bugoina
Orphan
Hand of Dante
Ghost Elephants
Cover-Up
I had After the Hunt on this list right up until yesterday when New York announced it as its Opening Night film as a North American Premiere...so no Telluride.
Other films that seem gone from Telluride consideration:
Sirat
Frankenstein
Eleanor the Great
Other films that could still play Telluride:
Bugonia
Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
Blue Moon
The Young Mothers' Home
The History of Sound
The Love That Remains
Left-Handed Girl
Pressure
Die, My Love
The Mastermind
The American Revolution
Bucking Fastard
Last week's Ten Bets:
1) Hamnet/Zhao
2) It Was Just an Accident/Panahi
3) Sentimental Value/Trier
4) Bugonia/Lanthimos
5) Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere/S. Cooper
6) Blue Moon/Linklater
7) Sirat/Laxe
8) The Young Mothers' Home/Dardenne Brothers
9) The History of Sound/Hermanus
10) After the Hunt/Guadagnino
Other possibilities: The Ballad of a Small Player, The Love That Remains, The Secret Agent, Jay Kelly, Left-Handed Girl, Frankenstein, Eleanor the Great, Pressure, Die My Love, The Mastermind, The American Revolution.
This week's new Ten Bets:
1) Hamnet/Zhao
2) It Was Just an Accident/Panahi
3) Sentimental Value/Trier
4) Ballad of a Small Player/Berger
5) The Secret Agent/Filho
6) Nouvelle Vague/Linklater
7) Tuner/Roher
8) Bugonia/Lanthimos
9) Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
10) The History of Sound/Hermanus
Other possibilities: Blue Moon, The Young Mother's Home, The Love That Remains, Jay Kelly, Left-Handed Girl, Die My Love, Anemone, Pressure, The American Revolution, Ghost Elephants, Bucking Fastard, La Grazia, A House of Dynamite, Orphan, Hand of Dante, Cover-Up.
Information that will further illuminate what could be at TFF #52:
*Waiting to hear from Toronto as they likely have other titles to add over the next few weeks.
*Waiting to see Venice's schedule.
*Waiting for the rest of New York's lineup.
All in all, I'm feeling pretty good about where this week's "Bets" are.
THIS YEAR'S BARBERA "MYSTERY"
Over the last couple of years Venice Film Fest chief Alberto Barbera has, unwittingly or not, let slip bits and pieces of information that have given away a couple of Telluride titles. Tuesday as he was introducing the Venice lineup we referenced Josh Safdies' Marty Supreme saying that (it) "will screen in the autumn".
Now, we know that Marty Supreme is set for a Dec. 25th release which isn't "autumn". Does that mean Barbera has, again revealed a Telluride play? My guess is no. I think New York seems more likely. I;m not saying that the reference precludes Telluride but NYFF makes more sense as the film is set primarily in NYC and the "autumn" reference matches up with New York's Sept. 26-Oct. 13 time frame better than TFF just two days after the Venetian kickoff.
From distributor Mubi yesterday, a poster for Oliver Hermanus' The History of Sound, currently sitting at #10 on this week's Ten Bets. Word is that a trailer is coming today. I'll try to add that to this post before the end of the day should it be forthcoming. Here's the poster:
MAYBE SOME TV?
@Movielo10274449 posted on X yesterday the notion that Matthew Heineman's The Savant could play Telluride and it makes some sense.
Last year the fest programmed Apple TV+'s and Alfonso Cuaron's Disclaimer starring Cate Blanchett (currently Emmy nommed for the role) and Kevin Kline. The fest ran all seven of the series episodes.
Could this happen again this year with The Savant which is also from Apple+?
Maybe Jessica Chastain who stars in the series will be in town? Please...
You bet your buns! Heineman, as @Movielo10274449 points out has screened his last two projects at T-ride. 2022's Retrograde and 2023's fantastic American Symphony.
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We expect to see a bunch of titles announced by the Toronto International Film Festival this morning and them clues as to what films will have been selected for Telluride. Stay tuned to MTFB social Media for those revelations.
On X: @Gort2 and/or @TheMTFB on Bluesky: @gort2.bsky.social
Of course I'll have a full re-cap on Thursday when I post next. That will also include the news from Venice (coming tomorrow) and a new Ten Bets list.
DISTRIBUTOR MONDAY #6: FOCUS FEATURES
While I have been running through the major distribution players based on recent appearances at the Telluride Film Festival I'm sure that many of you have noticed that in some instances the pickings seem lean. That's not the case with Focus Features. I count six films that Focus Features has that could possibly be playing Telluride.
Over the last nine fests, Focus has landed a film at T-ride in seven of those years. They missed in 2016 and 2019. They would have had at least one film in the Covid cancelled 2020 fest. Overall 10 Focus films have screened at Telluride since 2015 (11 if you count the 2020 TFF). Additionally, the Focus presence has increased recently with 7 of these titles playing with the last four years.
Here's their track record at Telluride since 2015:
2015: Suffragette
2017: Darkest Hour
2018: Boy Erased
2020: TFF #47 would have screened The Way I See It
2021: Belfast, The Card Counter
2022: Armageddon Time
2023: The Holdovers, The Bikeriders
2024: Conclave, Piece by Piece
So it's been a pretty solid run and I expect that Focus will have a robust presence at TFF #52. The six films that might make the lineup: Hamnet-which we think is locked as they have been announced as Canadian Premiere for Toronto-, Bugonia, The History of Sound, Anemone, Pressure and Song Sung Blue. Here's some info on each. Participants who have been to TFF previously are indicated with *. The films presented in alphabetical order:
Anemone. Dir. Ronan Day-Lewis. Stars: Daniel Day-Lewis*, Sean Bean, Samantha Morton. Release date: Oct. 10th. IMDb description:
Family bonds between fathers, sons, and brothers are explored as complex relationships unfold through personal journeys and generational conflicts.
Three rime Oscar winner Daniel Day-Lewis comes out of retirement as both acts and co-wrote the script. Of course, Day-Lewis was one of the tributees at TFF in 2007. Brad Pitt is one of two listed producers on the film. If you're not excited to see what this film is...well...
Bugonia. Dir. Yorgos Lanthimos*. Stars: Emma Stone*, Jesse Plemons*, Alicia Silverstone. Release date: Oct. 31st. IMDB description:
Two conspiracy-obsessed young men kidnap the high-powered CEO of a major company, convinced that she is an alien intent on destroying planet Earth.
After having screened The Favourite and Poor Things at Telluride both starring Emma Stone you have to think the chances are good that Bugonia will follow the same path from a Venice premiere to a Telluride play. A couple of notes, though. Lanthimos' Kinds of Kindness did not go that direction in 2024 having played Sundance and then Cannes. Also, all three of those films were distributed by Searchlight so what path Focus might desire.
Hamnet. Dir. Chloe Zhao*. Stars: Jesse Buckley*, Paul Mescal, Emily Watson*, Joe Alwyn. Release date: Dec. 12th. IMDb description:
The story of Agnes - the wife of William Shakespeare - as she struggles to come to terms with the loss of her only son, Hamnet. A human and heart-stopping story as the backdrop to the creation of Shakespeare's most famous play, Hamlet.
As mentioned above, this film seems to be lock for Telluride based on the Toronto Fest announcing it as a Canadian Premiere this past week.
The History of Sound. Dir. Oliver Hermanus*. Stars: Paul Mescal, Chris Cooper, Josh O'Connell. Release date: Sept. 12th.. IMDb description:
Two young men during World War I set out to record the lives, voices and music of their American countrymen.
Mescal and O'Connor are two of the hottest tickets around right now. I had been pretty high on its chances of a Telluride play what with the distributor and Oliver Hermanus having previously hacing Living at TFF #49, but the announced Sept. 12th release date is awfully soon after T-ride. Also, the lukewarm critical reception at Cannes also made me less bullish. Of late, I'm thinking it's still possible. A quick note: Mubi is also listed by IMDb as a domestic distributor of the film.
Pressure. Dir. Anthony Maras. Stars: Andrew Scott, Kerry Condon, Brendan Frasier, Damian Lewis, Chris Messina. Release date: TBD. IMDb description:
A ticking clock thriller based on the extraordinary true story of the 72 hours leading up to D-Day.
The more detailed plot summary reads:
In the seventy two hours leading up to D-Day, all the pieces are in place except for one key element--the British weather. Britain's chief meteorological officer James Stagg (Scott) is called upon to deliver the most consequential forecast in history, locking him into a tense standoff with the entire Allied leadership. The wrong conditions could devastate the largest ever seaborne invasion, while any delay risks German intelligence catching on. With only his trusted aide Captain Kay Summersby to confide in, and haunted by a catastrophic D-Day rehearsal, the final decision rests with Supreme Allied Commander Dwight D. Eisenhower. With only hours to go, the fate of the war and the lives of millions hang in the balance.
To be honest, this is more a "wish for" than an expectation. Its lack of an announced release date makes it questionable but I am very intrigued by the premise and its Andrew Scott.
Song Sung Blue. Dir. Craig Brewer. Stars: Hugh Jackman*, Kate Hudson, Fisher Stephens*. Release date: Dec. 25th. IMDb description:
Lightning and Thunder, a Milwaukee husband and wife Neil Diamond tribute act, experience soaring success and devastating heartbreak in their musical journey together.
Look, this is doubtful as a TFF play but it sounds interesting. the Dec. 25th release date signals that Focus has some confidence that it will play well with audiences. So, you now...maybe.
Overall, could this be the first year that Focus lands more than two films at TFF? That's possible. Hamnet's in. Bugonia seems likely and maybe History of Sound. I'd love, love, love for Anemone to show up at T-ride as well as Pressure but they're chances are much more tenuous.
Chances:
Hamnet 95%
Bugonia 60%
The History of Sound 40%
Anemone 25%
Pressure 20%
Song Sung Blue 20%
VENICE SET TO ANNOUNCE-MANY POSSIBILITIES
The Venice Film Fest will announce the bulk of its lineup tomorrow. As close observers know, over the years there has usually been a substantial overlap between films that play Venice and then Telluride. So the information we get on what Venice will screen this year will, by itself neither rule in or rule out a T-ride play. Of more import to our Telluride calculus is Venice's schedule which will be announced in about three weeks. Films that screen in the first 2-4 days have a shot at also getting set up to play TFF.
Still what they choose is a nice piece of info to know.
This what he has with what I think are Telluride possibles indicated with ***
MAIN COMPETITION CONTENDERS
After the Hunt (Luca Guadagnino)***
A House of Dynamite (Kathryn Bigelow)***
Jay Kelly (Noah Baumbach)***
Bugonia (Yorgos Lanthimos)***
Frankenstein (Guillermo del Toro)***
The Smashing Machine (Benny Safdie)
Father Mother Brother Sister (Jim Jarmusch)
The Ballad of a Small Player (Edward Berger)***
No Other Choice (Park Chan-wook)
La Grazia (Paolo Sorrentino)***
The Wizard of the Kremlin (Olivier Assayas)***
In the Hands of Dante (Julian Schnabel)***
Ann Lee (Mona Fastvold)
Hamnet (Chloe Zhao)***
Orphan (Laszlo Nemes)***
Untitled/Gaza (Kaouther Ben Hania)
One Year of School (Laura Samani)
Mother Bhumi (Chong Keat Aun)
Below the Clouds (Gianfranco Rosi)
Duse (Pietro Marcello)
I Wanted to Kill Her (Leonardo Di Costanzo)
The Stranger (Francois Ozon)***
À pied d’œuvre (Valérie Donzelli)
Chocobar (Lucrecia Martel)
OTHER POSSIBILITIES
The Fence (Claire Denis)
Wake of Umbra (Carlos Reygadas)
Chocobar (Lucrecia Martel)
At the Sea (Kornél Mundruczó)
Caught Stealing (Darren Aronofsky)
Deux Pianos (Arnaud Desplechin)
Anemone (Ronan Day-Lewis)***
Tre Ciotole (Isabel Coixet)
El Ser Querido (Rodrigo Sorogoyen)
The Way of the Wind (Terrence Malick)***
Switzerland (Anton Corbijn)
Deliver Me From Nowhere (Scott Cooper)***
Redoubt (John Skoo)
& Sons (Pablo Trapero)
Occupation (Myroslav Slaboshpytskyi)
Dao (Alain Gomis)
Rosebush Pruning (Karim Ainouz)
Une Illusion (Naomi Kawase)
The Dreamed Adventure (Valeska Grisebach)
Yellow Letters (Ilker Çatak)
Unidentified (Haifaa al-Mansour)***
Silent Friend (Ildiko Enyedi)
Rose (Markus Schleinzer)
Untitled (Abu Bakr Shawky)
Calle Malaga (Maryam Touzani)
Musk (Alex Gibney)***
NO BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER
Frequent readers will know that I have flirted in recent posts about the outside possibility that Paul Thomas Anderson's One Battle After Another might end up screening at Telluride. Well...
World of Reel put that notion to rest Sunday afternoon.
Jordan Ruimy writes:
"A source close to the situation tells me that Warner Bros. has made the decision to skip all the major fall festivals for “One Battle After Another,” including Venice, Telluride, and TIFF."
Unless this is great cover for a TFF "sneak" it looks like to PTA at TFF.
ELEANOR HAS A DATE
Sony Pictures Classics has dated the release of Scarlett Johannsson's directorial debut, Eleanor the Great. The film will be released nationwide on Sept. 26th which feels right for a potential TFF play OR a TFF/TIFF combo OR Toronto only. That's according to Deadline. The film stars 95year old actress June Squibb who might find herself in the Oscar race for Best Actress for this film.
The film screened at Cannes as a part of the Un Certain Regard section. It earned a reasonable 6.64/10 composite rating from Cannes-Ratings.org.
The description from IMDb:
After a devastating loss, witty and proudly troublesome Eleanor Morgenstein, 94, tells a tale that takes on a dangerous life of its own.
Here's a clip from the film via YouTube:
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Other possibilities: The History of Sound, The Ballad of a Small Player, The Love That Remains, The Secret Agent, Jay Kelly, Left-Handed Girl, Frankenstein, Eleanor the Great, Pressure, Marty Supreme, Die My Love, The Mastermind, The American Revolution.
And now for the updated Ten Bets:
1) Hamnet/Zhao
2) It Was Just an Accident/Panahi
3) Sentimental Value/Trier
4) Bugonia/Lanthimos
5) Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere/S. Cooper
6) Blue Moon/Linklater
7) Sirat/Laxe
8) The Young Mothers' Home/Dardenne Brothers
9) The History of Sound/Hermanus
10) After the Hunt/Guadagnino
Other possibilities: The Ballad of a Small Player, The Love That Remains, The Secret Agent, Jay Kelly, Left-Handed Girl, Frankenstein, Eleanor the Great, Pressure, Die My Love, The Mastermind, The American Revolution.
Changes in this week's Ten Bets informed by announcements yesterday from Toronto (see below). Marty Supreme falls out of "possibilities" amid reports that it will skipping all fall fests.
I'm expecting more announcements coming from other fests next week which should really begin to clear the picture for TFF #52.
TORONTO ADDS 11 MORE TITLES...WE DEDUCE!
Yesterday the Toronto International Film Festival announced 11 more titles for their 2025 edition. Their premiere designations tell us about films that now seem to be (mostly) ruled out and one that seems to be confirmed for Telluride. Per Variety here are those films and their designations.
Galas:
The Choral | Nicholas Hytner | UK
World Premiere | Gala Presentation
Homebound | Neeraj Ghaywan | India
North American Premiere | Gala Presentation
Hamnet | Chloé Zhao | UK
Canadian Premiere | Gala Presentation
A Private Life | Rebecca Zlotowski | France
North American Premiere | Gala Presentation
Roofman | Derek Cianfrance | USA
World Premiere | Gala Presentation
She Has No Name | Peter Ho-Sun Chan | China
North American Premiere | Gala Presentation
Special Presentations:
Franz | Agnieszka Holland | Czech Republic/Germany/Poland
World Premiere | Special Presentation
The Lost Bus | Paul Greengrass | USA
World Premiere | Special Presentation
Rental Family | HIKARI | USA/Japan
World Premiere | Special Presentation
Steal Away | Clement Virgo | Canada/Belgium
World Premiere | Special Presentation
Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery | Rian Johnson | USA
World Premiere | Special Presentation
Takeaways: Looks like Chloe Zhao's Hamnet is headed to Telluride. Looks like Hikari's Rental Family is not. I've had Hamnet in the Ten Bets from the jump this year. I just put in Rental Family last week but its World Premiere designation means that it won't be at Telluride. The question that raises is does that mean that Bradley Cooper's Is This Thing On? a real TFF #52 possibility from Searchlight? Because it feels like that's Searchlight's best shot now.
Couple of other things: A Private Life, Roofman and Franz were films I had sort of considered as possible TFF candidates and aren't now.
The mystery about Wake Up Dead Man's International Premiere designation for the BFI/London Fest remains...weird. I've said it before...the International Premiere designation is "squishy".
None of the other films announced by Toronto were on my radar as Telluride candidates.
Luca Guadagnino's After the Hunt moved up into this week's Ten Bets. Mostly because its Amazon-MGM's big shot this year and Rental Family dropped out. Now I'm sort of thinking that it does Venice early and then Telluride. Maybe a Julia Roberts tribute?
World of Reel wrote about it yesterday saying:
“After the Hunt” is set to hit screens on October 10 via Amazon/MGM. As mentioned, it’ll probably hit Venice in September, and probably have a fall rollout in other fests, maybe Toronto and Telluride."
Also perhaps signaling that the film is soon to be announced for Venice, Amazon-MGM dropped a trailer yesterday. Here that is from YouTube:
I think it looks intriguing.
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Today we take a look at the sixth distributor that has a common appearance profile at the Telluride Film festival and that is Amazon-MGM.
Since starting this series of reviews of frequent TFF distribution companies I have been taking them in the order of the outfits that have been most prevalent at Telluride over the last nine years. Amazon-MGM (Amazon Studios) has screened a dozen films at T-ride in that time. Actually, it's been eight years in a row with at least one film being screened at TFF:
2016: Manchester by the Sea
2017: Wonderstruck
2018: Cold War, Peterloo
2019: The Aeronauts, The Report
2020: No Fest but would have screened All In: The Fight for Democracy
2021: Encounter
2022: Goodnight Oppy, Wildcat
2023: Saltburn, Cassandro
2024: Nickel Boys
So one or two films per year consistently since 2016 but trying to decipher what Amazon-MGM might have for the 2025 edition of TFF is challenging.
The big film for them this year is Luca Guadagnino's After the Hunt. The other was Nia DaCosta's Hedda but we now know that it will World Premiere at the Toronto International Film Festival. Once you get past those two there are a few other projects that just don't seem to have a lot of TFF juice.
Here's the rundown:
After the Hunt. Dir. Luca Guadagnino*. Stars: Julia Roberts, Ayo Ediberi, Andrew Garfield*, Chloe Zevigny*, Michael Stuhlbarg*. Release date: Oct. 10th. IMDb description:
A college professor finds herself at a personal and professional crossroads when a star pupil levels an accusation against one of her colleagues and a dark secret from her own past threatens to come to light.
Guadagnino was at TFF in 2022 with Bones and All after it premiered at Venice. Since then his two big 2024 releases- Challengers and Queer -both did not play Telluride. Notably, Queer did play Venice. So...
A Julia Roberts tribute would be cool though.
Preparation for the Next Life. Director: Bing Liu. Stars: Sebiye Behtiyar, Fred Hechinger. Release date: TBD IMDb description:
Upon her release from a detention center, undocumented Uyghur immigrant Aishe moves to New York City, vowing to outrun the many things chasing her. In Queens, she falls in love with Skinner, a recently discharged army vet, and they help each other combat the complexities of starting a new life in America. A gritty love story about two unforgettable people the world forgot..
The thing that makes me list this title is that T-ride regular Barry Jenkins is a producer on the film as is Plan B's Dede Gardner. Could be a real sleeper choice.
The Map that Leads to You. Director: Lasse Hallstrom. Stars: Madelyn Cline, Josh Lucas. Release date: TBD. IMDb description:
A woman meets an enigmatic stranger on a European trip. Their instant attraction faces challenges from life, duty and secrets that change her life forever.
I include this mostly because of director Lasse Hallstrom's past films: The Cider house Rules, Chocolat and What's Eating Gilbert Grape. Currently, it appears that Amazon-MGM may just send this direct to streaming.
Amazon-MGM has a couple of comedies (Oh.What.Fun. and The Pickup) neither of which seem TFF possibilities.
Overall, After the Hunt probably has the best TFF shot but I just don't feel it. At the moment I expect a Venice play and then to Toronto just as Queer did.
Chances:
After the Hunt 30%
Preparation for the Next Life 25%
The Map that Leads to You 0%
Update as of 10:47 am EDT on 7-14-25-Amazon-MGM has dated The Map that Leads to You streaming debut on August 20th.
Up next Monday...Focus Features...and wooooo....they are loaded for 2025.
ONE BATTLE...NO VENICE?
World of Reel reported Saturday that Paul Thomas Anderson's One Battle After Another is likely to miss the Venice Film Festival. It has been frequently mentioned that the film would probably World Premiere there.
Jordan Ruimy, who runs WOR, made clear that there is no official word as yet regarding One Battle but also claims that the source from Italy is reliable.
The post also talks a bit about whether that means the the film plays Toronto, which Ruimy suggests is the most likely scenario but which he also admits isn't a cinch either. As for Telluride, Ruimy doesn't entirely rule it out writing, "Telluride? Probably not in the cards." but that's a 100% denial of the possibility. Ruimy also writes the thinks the film almost has to land somewhere in the fall fest and it can't be New York as OBAA opens the same day as NYFF opens.
So where? If at all?
Warners, who has the film, has had a fairly regular presence at Telluride. Including the now defunct Warner Independent Pictures, here's what they have screened at Telluride in the time thatI've been attending:
2006: Infamous
2007: Rails and Ties
2012: Argo
2013: Gravity
2015: Black Mass
2016: Sully
2019: Motherless Brooklyn
2022: King Richard
And, of course, PTA was in Telluride in 2007 for the Daniel Day-Lewis Tribute and screening of some of There Will Be Blood.
So...who knows? Not me, but I'll keep my ear to the ground.
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With every week we get a little bit more backdoor info pointing to certain titles for TFF #52. You'll see a little bit of that for this week in the stories posted below. But let's lead off today's re-shuffle of the top ten bets on films for TFF. Here's a look at last week's Ten Bets:
1) It Was Just an Accident/Panahi
2) Sentimental Value/Trier
3) Bugonia/Lanthimos
4) Hamnet/Zhao
5) Blue Moon/Linklater
6) Sirat/Oliver Laxe
7) Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere/S. Cooper
8) The Young Mothers' Home/Dardenne Brothers
9) The Ballad of a Small Player/Berger
10) After the Hunt/Guadagnino
Other possibilities: The Love That Remains/Palmason, Jay Kelly, Left-Handed Girl, Frankenstein, Eleanor the Great, After the Hunt, The History of Sound, Family Rental, Pressure, Marty Supreme, Die My Love, The Mastermind, The American Revolution.
And this is where I think we are this week:
1) It Was Just an Accident/Panahi
2) Sentimental Value/Trier
3) Bugonia/Lanthimos
4) Hamnet/Zhao
5) Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere/S. Cooper
6) Sirat/Oliver Laxe
7) Blue Moon/Linklater
8) After the Hunt/Guadagnino
9) The Young Mothers' Home/Dardennes Brothers
10) Rental Family/Hikari
Other possibilities: The History of Sound, The Ballad of a Small Player, The Love That Remains/Palmason, The Secret Agent, Jay Kelly, Left-Handed Girl, Frankenstein, Eleanor the Great, After the Hunt, Pressure, Marty Supreme, Die My Love, The Mastermind, The American Revolution.
RENTAL FAMILY...TELLURIDE BOUND?
Oscar winner Brendan Fraser who leads Hikari's Rental Family
Earlier this week I wrote that Hikari's Rental Family had about a 40% shot at playing at telluride as a part of my assessment of what Searchlight films might be TFF possible. That, I suggested. made it the most likely Searchlight property to play TFF #52.
Tuesday World of Reel's Jordan Ruimy reported that the film may be TFF bound. In a story covering the test screenings of the film. The thrust of the story is that it has been screening to very positive reactions. As Ruimy is winding up the article he writes:
"What we might have here is the kind of low-key, but emotionally resonant indie that, if positioned well, could ride a wave of goodwill through the fall circuit and into awards season.
Of course, it it’s too early to tell, but all signs point to a real crowd-pleaser, and there are already murmurs that it’s already clinched a spot at the Telluride Film Festival, which is known to be a major Oscar launchpad."
We can't know how certain Ruimy is, but it seems he has some serious insight. Consequently Rental Family makes its way onto this week's Ten Bets list. And for fun, I'll tease that there is at least one other "Bet" among the 10 that I am 90% sure of and another among the week's "possibilities" that I'm also at 90% on. I really thought about moving the "possibility" into the Ten Bets for the week but had to make late breaking room for Rental Family.
Any guesses?
NEXT BEST PICTURE PREDICTS T-RIDE
Matt Neglia at Next Best Picture posted yesterday a substantial piece predicting where films would land this fall film fest season including TFF #52. I have included Matt's Telluride predictions and indicated where he and I overlap as follows:
* On the the latest Ten Bets
**Included as a "Possibility"
***Might have been mentioned by MTFB
Here's Matt's list:
Blue Moon – dir. Richard Linklater*
Bugonia-dir. Yorgos Lanthimos*
Chocobar-dir. Lucretia Martel
The Chronology Of Water – dir. Kristen Stewart***
Hamnet (World Premiere) – dir. Chloe Zhao*
The History Of Sound – dir. Oliver Hermanus**
A House Of Dynamite (World Premiere) – dir. Kathryn Bigelow***
It Was Just An Accident – dir. Jafar Panahi*
Jay Kelly-dir. Noah Baumbach**
Left-Handed Girl – dir. Shih-Ching Tsou***
The Love That Remains – dir. Hlynur Pálmason**
A Magnificent Life – dir. Sylvain Chomet***
Mother Mary (World Premiere) – director. David Lowery
The Perfect Neighbor – dir. Geeta Gandbhir
The President’s Cake – dir. Hasan Hadi***
Rental Family (World Premiere) – dir. Hikari*
The Secret Agent – dir. Kleber Mendonça Filho**
Seeds – dir. Brittany Shyne
Sentimental Value – dir. Joachim Trier*
Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere (World Premiere) – dir. Scott Cooper*
Train Dreams – dir. Clint Bentley***
Urchin – dir. Harris Dickinson***
The Young Mothers’ Home – dir. Luc Dardenne & Jean-Pierre Dardenne*
Films that Matt predicts for Venice or Toronto that I want to be at Telluride:
Word from Netflix yesterday that Rian Johnson's Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery will open the BFI/London Film Festival on October 8th. The interesting thing is that multiple sources reported that as being its International Premiere. That means it will have World Premiered somewhere else before Oct. 8th.
Some have speculated that means a Toronto World Premiere. But hold up. The traditional definition of "International Premiere" is that it is a first screening outside the film's nation of origin. Okay. It's just that Canada is not the "nation of origin" for Wake Up Dead Man. According to IMDb Pro the nation of origin is the U.S.A.
So, what gives? That set of circumstances seem to suggest that WUDM World Premieres at Telluride or Fantastic Fest. The original Knives Out did world premiere at Toronto and followed that with a screening as a part of Fantastic Fest. Glass Onion also World Premiered at Toronto and then followed that up with a number of high profile regional fests like Mill Valley, Middleburg and Hamptons.
So, again, what gives? I think there are three possibilities:
1) Wake Up Dead Man plays Telluride.
2) Wake Up Dead Man plays Fantastic Fest and skips Toronto.
3) Wake Up Dead Man World Premieres at Toronto.
The third option is maybe the most likely because the "International Premiere" designation has been inconsistently applied for some time.
I'll keep an eye on this to see how it finally checks out.
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Today's look at film distributors that have a fairly impressive track record at screening things at Telluride continues with Searchlight Films (formerly Fox Searchlight). Over the nine years I looked back (and leaving out the Covid year of 2020) Searchlight has landed at least one at Telluride every year except 2016.
Over the years Searchlight has had a good deal of success when playing films at Telluride. Since 2008 five (Fox) Searchlight films have played TFF and subsequently won the Academy Award for Best Picture:
2009: Slumdog Millionaire
2014: 12 Years a Slave
2015: Birdman
2018: The Shape of Water
2021: Nomadland (would have played TFF had the fest happened. TFF did sponsor a screening or two)
Searchlight has also had a number of other films that were Best Picture nominated. Some of those were TFF films, some not. Since 2015:
2016: Brooklyn
2018: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
2019: The Favourite
2020: Jojo Rabbit
2022: Nightmare Alley
2023: The Banshees of Inisherin
2024: Poor Things
2025: A Complete Unknown
Looking at the possibilities from Searchlight we discover that there aren't many. Three to be precise. Here's the rundown for each listed in alphabetical order. Participants in these films that have attended TFF previously are indicated with *.
In the Blink of an Eye. Director: Andrew Stanton. Stars: Rashida Jones, Kate McKinnon, Daveed Diggs. Release date: TBD. IMDb description:
Three storylines, spanning thousands of years, intersect and reflect on hope, connection and the circle of life.
Frankly, I'd be surprised if this turns up.
Is This Thing On? Director: Bradley Cooper. Stars: Bradley Cooper, Laura Dern*, Will Arnett, Ciaran Hinds. Release date: TBD. IMDB description:
As their marriage unravels, Alex faces middle age and divorce, seeking new purpose in the New York comedy scene while wife Tess confronts the sacrifices she made for their family-forcing them to navigate co-parenting and identity.
I'm actually pretty excited about this film. I am wary that it will be ready in time. IMDb reports that it went into post-production in April...so... Laura Dern's participation doesn't hurt its chances of making a TFF appearance as she has been a TFF regular for some time now.
Japanese rental company hires struggling American actor in Tokyo. He plays various roles in clients' lives, embarking on an introspective journey through these unlikely experiences.
I actually think that Rental Family might be the most likely TFF entrant of the three.
Chances:
Rental Family 40%
Is This Thing On? 20%
In the Blink of an Eye 20%
Next week a look at Amazon/MGM.
VENICE ANNOUNCES OPENING FILM...DOES IT PLAY TELLURIDE?
The 82nd Venice Film Festival will open with Paolo Sorrentino's La Grazia (Grace). Does that make it likely to also play at TFF #52? That answer isn't clear at all. Although I have frequently mentioned that the positioning of a film in the Venice schedule is crucial for any film that a distributor wants in both fests. To make this double play a film has to be scheduled in Venice first two to three days. Fourth day tops. So you would think that Venice's opening night film would be a solid choice to make the way. But...hold on...no so fast.
I went back to 2010 and checked that scenario. Here's what has opened Venice for each year since then with films that went on to cross the Atlantic to screen at T-ride indicated with a *.
2010: Black Swan*
2011: The Ides of March
2012: The Reluctant Fundamentalist
2013: Gravity*
2014: Birdman*
2015: Everest
2016: La La Land*
2017: Downsizing*
2018: First Man*
2019: The Truth
2020: The Ties
2021: Parallel Mothers
2022: White Noise
2023: Comandante
2024: Beetlejuice Beetlejuice
As you can see, the Venice-Telluride scenario was very common from 2010-2018 with the Venice opener going west six times but beginning with 2019 the trend has not happened.
I can recall thinking that The Truth (19), Parallel Mothers (21) and White Noise (22) all had a pretty good shot at going to TFF and being wrong about them.
Muddying the predictive waters are the fact that director Paolo Sorrentino has recently been an invitee to Telluride. In 2021 his The Hand of God did the Venice-Telluride thing with it playing Venice on Sept. 2 and then screening in Telluride the next day.
Additionally, La Grazia is being distributed in the U.S. by Mubi which has been a TFF player the last four years or so.
I'm inclined to think that the recent drought of Venice openers coming to Telluride isn't an accident. It feels like the outcome of a deliberate choice to avoid that. I have no real evidence other than the fact that the circumstance hasn't occurred for six straight years.
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We're creeping up on the time frame for rapid discovery of probable Telluride selections based on information as other major fall film festivals begin to announce their lineups. For Telluride watchers that chiefly means Toronto, Venice and New York. Fantastic Fest and BFI/London can also provide clues.
When those announcements happen they can rapidly change the look of the Ten Bets. It's all about how a fest frames the premiere status for the films that they include. Designations that are key over the next few weeks are:
"World Premiere" which is exactly what it sounds like...some fest is telling you that they will be hosting the very first public screening of a film anywhere. So when Toronto tells you they are "World Premiering" a film that means it won't play Telluride which occurs before TIFF.
Almost all of Venice's titles are World Premieres. The best info from Venice comes when they announce their actual screening schedule. As Venice cranks up a couple of days before TFF starts, films that get scheduled the first three or four days of Venice have time to get to the Colorado Rockies for a portion of TFF.
"International Premiere" which means the first screening outside the films country of origin (though "country of origin" can be a slippery term). This designation can cut both ways in as far as ruling a film in or out of the TFF lineup. For example, an American film the screens at Telluride and then at Toronto could be designated by TIFF as an "International Premiere". When TIFF frames their announcement that way it could be a predictor that the film will play T-ride. On the other hand, if a French film screens at Cannes and is announced as an International Premiere by Toronto, that means it is skipping Telluride.
"North American Premiere": A very useful piece of information for announcements from Toronto or New York as it means no previous play at Telluride.
"Canadian" or "New York" premieres. In each case this kind of "local" premiere designation almost always means a Telluride play....but NOT 100% of the time. You have to remember that Sundance, South by Southwest and Fantastic Fest film titles could also result in the "local" designation for either TIFF or NTFF.
Ultimately all of this explains why changes in the early versions of the Ten Bets are glacial and then become quite dynamic when we begin to see announcements from these other major fests.
All that said, here's a review of last week's Ten Bets for TFF #52:
1) It Was Just an Accident/Panahi
2) Blue Moon/Linklater
3) Bugonia/Lanthimos
4) Sentimental Value/Trier
5) The Young Mothers' Home/Dardennes
6) Hamnet/Zhao
7) Sirat/Oliver Laxe
8) Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere/S. Cooper
9) The Ballad of a Small Player/Berger
10) The Love That Remains/Palmason
Other possibilities: Jay Kelly, Left-Handed Girl, Frankenstein, Eleanor the Great, After the Hunt, Family Rental, Pressure, Marty Supreme, Die My Love, The Mastermind.
And now, this week's Ten Bets:
1) It Was Just an Accident/Panahi
2) Sentimental Value/Trier
3) Bugonia/Lanthimos
4) Hamnet/Zhao
5) Blue Moon/Linklater
6) Sirat/Oliver Laxe
7) Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere/S. Cooper
8) The Young Mothers' Home/Dardenne Brothers
9) The Ballad of a Small Player/Berger
10) After the Hunt/Guadagnino
Other possibilities: The Love That Remains/Palmason, Jay Kelly, Left-Handed Girl, Frankenstein, Eleanor the Great, After the Hunt, The History of Sound, Family Rental, Pressure, Marty Supreme, Die My Love, The Mastermind, The American Revolution.
Comment: Sentimental Value and Hamnet both gain a couple of spots. Sirat and Deliver Me from Nowhere move up one spot. Blue Moon and Young Mothers' Home lose some ground and, for now, After the Hunt supplants The Love That Remains in the #10 spot.
SENTIMENTAL VALUE TRAILER
Currently sitting at #2 in the Latest Ten Bets is Joachim Trier's Sentimental Value. The film won the Grand Prix at Cannes in May and is considered a hot property moving through the fall fest season. Neon is the film's distributor and they're larder is stacked with Cannes projects that they acquired during and after the festival.
Mubi released a trailer a couple of days ago. Here it is from YouTube:
Sentimental Value is set to open in the United States on Nov. 7th.
THE MASTERMIND IS DATED
Nest Best Picture revealed this week that Mubi will release Kelly Reichardt's The Mastermind theatrically in the U.S. on Oct. 17th.
That date means it could line up potential plays at Telluride, Toronto and/or New York. Reichardt was in Telluride in 2019 with the enigmatic First Cow.
The Mastermind played the Cannes Fest in the Palme d'Or competition. It stood somewhere in the middle of the competition group critically with a 6.29 average rating as reported by Cannes-Ratings.org.
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