Monday, September 29, 2025

Checking with Oscar Experts: Variety / New Trailer for Jay Kelly / Visitations: Ballad of a Small Player and The Mastermind

CHECKING WITH OSCAR EXPERTS: VARIETY




We started with last Thursday's post to transition from predicting the films that would play Telluride to focusing on which TFF #52 films might be players in the 2025-26 awards season.  We began with Scott Feinberg of  The Hollywood Reporter and today we look at the Best Picture predictions from Variety's Clayton Davis, senior awards editor.  Here are Davis's current top ten picks to get nominated for best Picture (TFF 352 films are in bold and are listed in order of most likely to less likely:

1) Hamnet
2) One Battle after Another
3) Sinners
4) A House of Dynamite
5) Wicked: For Good
6) Sentimental Value
7) Marty Supreme
8) Frankenstein
9) The Secret Agent 
10) Bugonia

Other TFF #52 films in the Top Twenty are:

13) It Was Just an Accident
15) Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
17) Jay Kelly

So in this scenario five TFF #52 films would be Best Picture nominated which would be a first for that to occur.



NEW TRAILER FOR JAY KELLY

From Netflix this morning, the release of a new trailer for Noah Baumbach's Jay Kelly starring George Clooney, Adam Sandler and Laura Dern.  Jay Kelly is in theaters on Nov.14th.



VISITATIONS








EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com

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Thursday, September 25, 2025

We Turn the Page / Early Line on Oscar Best Picture Nominees / Character Posters from Blue Moon

WE TURN THE PAGE



We've made the run of post-festival ratings with the reportage of results from my annual poll of the People, the Professionals and then the Composite of both together.  Hamnet did very, very well...as it should.  So, as has become the custom here at MTFB, we turn the page to what happens now in awards season to the films that made up the TFF #52 lineup.


EARLY LINE ON OSCAR BEST PICTURE NOMINEES




I did quick inventory of  a variety of Oscar prediction websites in search of an early line on the Best Picture competition.  The quick line looks like this:

1) Hamnet
2) One Battle After Another
3) Sinners
4) Sentimental Value
5) A House of Dynamite

A few other TFF #52 films could also be in play such as The Secret Agent, It Was Just an Accident, Bugonia and Jay Kelly.

This far out, however, some contenders haven't been considered as they haven't been seen by anyone yet. That list of films would include: Wicked: For Good, Avatar: Fire and Glass, Marty Supreme and Is This Thing On?.

Additionally Gold Derby has assessed the early race this way:

1) Hamnet
2) Sinners
3) One Battle after Another
4) Sentimental Value
5) Wicked: For Good
6) Marty Supreme
7) A House of Dynamite
8) Jay Kelly
9) Bugonia
10) It Was Just an Accident



Finally, checking in some specific Oscar prognosticators, here's where Scott Feinberg of  The Hollywood Reporter is on Best Picture:

Frontrunners:




1) Hamnet (Focus)
2) Sentimental Value (Neon)
3) Sinners (Warner Bros.)
4) A House of Dynamite (Netflix)
5) The Secret Agent (Neon)
6) Jay Kelly (Netflix)
7) It Was Just An Accident (Neon)
8) Bugonia (Focus)
9) Train Dreams (Netflix)
10) Roofman (Paramount)

And again, to point out, Feinberg does not add films to the list until he's actually seen them.  At the time of this post that included One Battle After Another among others.



CHARACTER POSTERS FROM BLUE MOON

Sony Pictures Classics released character posters from Richard Linklater's Blue Moon featuring Ethan Hawke, Margaret Qualley, Andrew Scott and Bobby Canavale:  Here they are:














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Monday, September 22, 2025

The Composite Telluride / Visitations: Paul Mescal

THE COMPOSITE TELLURIDE




We cap off the run of posts that highlight the way people rated the films at Telluride today with what I call The Composite Telluride in which I add up a film's ratings from both The People and the Pros.  This year 11 films had enough responses from both groups to make this list.  There are three films that made one list but didn't make The Composite because they failed to get enough people to see them from one group or the other.  Those were Nouvelle Vague which didn't make the People's list and If I Had Legs I'd Kick you as well as A Private Life which weren't seen by enough Pros.

So, here's the Composite.  Each title is listed with it's composite rating (on a scale of 10) and its positions on the Pro list then the Peoples list.

1) Hamnet 9.19 [1-1]
2) Sentimental Value 8.79 [2-3]
3) It Was Just an Accident 8.58 [3-4]
4) Bugonia 7.85 [9-2]
5) Jay Kelly 7.79 [4-8]
6) The History of Sound 7.67 [5-7]
7) [TIE] Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere 7.30 [8-6]
7) [TIE] Tuner  7.30 [10-5]
9) Blue Moon 7.12 [7-10]
10) Frankenstein 6.64 [12-9]
11) Ballad of a Small Player 6.11 [11-13]

After these additions the All Time Composite Top Ten looks like this:

1) (TIE) 12 Years a Slave (9.25) 2013 (Won Best Picture)
1) (TIE) Argo (9.25) 2012 (Won Best Picture)
3) Roma (9.20) 2018 (Won Best Foreign Language Film)
4) (TIE) Moonlight (9.19) 2016 (Won Best Picture)
4) (TIE) Hamnet (9.19) 2025 (???)
6) Birdman (9.18) 2014 (Won Best Picture)
7) Parasite (9.11) 2019 (Won Best Picture)
8) Stories We Tell (9.10) 2012
9) Poor Things (9.04) 2023 (Nominated Best Picture)
10) (TIE) Tim's Vermeer (8.97) 2013
10) (TIE) Anora (8.97) 2024 (Won Best Picture)

So Chloe Zhao's Hamnet lands tied with Moonlight for the fourth best Composite score of all time.

An expanded  list of The Composite and updated All Time ratings for all three categories (Pros, Peeps and Composite) can be found on the "Film Ratings from Past Fests" page.  The tab for that is above.

One last thing.  The top 10 films that were most viewed as a percentage of the total number of people who rated films for The People's Telluride.

1) Hamnet 86%
2) Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere 78%
3) Sentimental Value 67%
3) Bugonia 67%
5) Jay Kelly 66%rin
6) Blue Moon 64%
7) Tuner 63%
8) Ballad of a Small Player 58%
9) Frankenstein 56%
10) If I Had Legs I'd Kick You 44%

VISITATIONS: PAUL MESCAL






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Thursday, September 18, 2025

The People's Telluride / RIP Robert Redford 1936=2025 / New Trailer for Springsteen

THE PEOPLE'S TELLURIDE


Running a tad late today...apologies.

Here's my compilation of film ratings from TFF attendees for TFF #52.  Respondents were asked to rate each film they saw on a 1-5 scale with 1 being not-so-good and 5 being "way good".  Over 60 attendees responded to the poll.  The traditional requirement for inclusion is that a film had to have been seen by a third of the respondents.  13 films met that criteria.  Here they are in order of their average rating:

1) Hamnet 4.55
2) Bugonia 4.37
3) Sentimental Value 4.30
4) It Was Just an Accident 4.23
5) Tuner 4.16
6) Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere 3.80
7) The History of Sound 3.79
8) Jay Kelly 3.78
9) Frankenstein 3.77
10) Blue Moon 3.43
11) If I Had Legs I'd Kick You 3.42
12) A Private Life 3.35
13) Ballad of a Small Player 3.22

So, essentially universal agreement between the Peeps and the Pros regarding Hamnet, Sentimental Value and It Was Just an Accident.  Pretty big differences between the two groups on Bugonia, Tuner and Frankenstein.

The Composite Telluride is coming on Monday as well as updates to all three categories all time top ten films.


RIP ROBERT REDFORD 1936-2025




Robert Redford died on Tuesday.  He was 89.  He was also a giant having amassed a bevy of great performances in great films, as well proving himself a fantastic director and producer.  And, of course, he was the founder of the Sundance Institute and the Sundance Film Festival.

He was an Oscar winner for directing Ordinary People.  He was also nominated five other times:

Producer for Ordinary People, Direction and Producer for Quiz Show and Best Actor for The Sting.

A partial list of notable films in which he acted:

Barefoot in the Park (1967)
Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid (1969)
Jeremiah Johnson (1972)
The Candidate (1972)
The Way We Were (1973)
The Sting (1973)
Three Days of the Condor (1975)
All the President's Men (1976)
The Electric Horseman (1979)
The Natural (1984)
Out of Africa (1975)
A River Runs Through It (Narrator) (1982)
The Horse Whisperer (1998)
All Is Lost (2013)

There were many more.

Direction:

Ordinary People (1980)
The Milagro Beanfield War (1988)
A River Runs Through It (1992)
Quiz Show (1994)
The Horse Whisperer (1998)

And others.

I was fortunate enough to catch his Q+As in 2013 for All Is Lost for which Redford received the Telluride Silver Medallion and then again in 2018 for The Old Man and the Gun.


Robert Redford at his  TFF Tribute in 2013.


Like I suspect many of you, I have spent the last couple of days re-watching some of his films: All the President's Men, A River Runs Through It, The Great Waldo Pepper.  I've got more to do.

It's really difficult to adequately describe how much of a effect he had in the film world.  As I wrote above; he was a giant.  The film industry would have been a a vastly different place without his career.  We also owe him an immense amount gratitude for his environmental activism.

As always in cases like this, we are lucky to have his body of work to remind us of his greatness.


NEW TRAILER FOR SPRINGSTEEN

We have a new trailer released for Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere.  Here it is from YouTube:







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Monday, September 15, 2025

The Professional's Telluride / Telluride Wins Toronto / Visitations: Cooper, Mescal, Harmanus / The People's Telluride-Final Call

THE PROFESSIONAL'S TELLURDE




They're back.  It's time to reveal the results of MTFB's annual poll of film industry professionals who agreed to rate the films on a 1-5 scale and allow me then to collate and average those scores.  The pros are a mix of critics, awards experts and other industry insiders.  To make the list this year a film had to be rated by at least half of the Pros.  That threshold allowed a dozen films to make the list.

Here are the Pros for TFF #52:

Erik Anderson/Awards Watch
J. Don Birnam-Jorge T/SplashReport.com
Josh Bis/Seattle Film Critics Society and TheSunBreak.com
Christina Jeurling Birro/Pop Culture Confidential
Clayton Davis/Variety
Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter
Mark Johnson/The Awards Alchemist
Dave Karger/Turner Classic Movies
Scott Kernan/Awards Daily
Tomris Laffly/Film Critic and Journalist
Joey Magidson/Awards Radar
Ryan McQuade/Awards Watch
Will Mavity/Next Best Picture
Clarence Moye/The Contending
Matt Neglia/Next Best Picture
Christopher Schiller/ScriptMag.com
Chris Willman/Variety
Anonymous


And here are your Professionals average ratings:

1) Hamnet 4.64
2) Sentimental Value 4.49
3) It Was Just an Accident 4.35
4) Jay Kelly 4.01
5) The History of Sound 3.88
6) Nouvelle Vague 3.76
7) Blue Moon 3.69
8) Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere 3.50
9) Bugonia 3.48
10) Tuner 3.14
11) Ballad of a Small Player 2.89
12) Frankenstein 2.87

Just missing out on making the list because they were one pro shy of the threshold were The Secret Agent, La Grazia and A Private Life.

Historically, Hamnet's 4.64 will put it in the Professionals all time top ten at #7 and because there is a tie for the 10th spot, no film drops out of this top ten.

New all time PROs Top Ten Films

1) Moonlight (4.87) (16) (Won Best Picture)
2) Parasite (4.75) (19) (Won Best Picture)
3) Roma (4.73) (18) (Nominated Best Picture)
4) Birdman (4.72) (14) (Won Best Picture)
5) 12 Years a Slave (4.70-tie) (13) (Won Best Picture)
6) Central Park Five (4.70-tie) (12)
7) Hamnet (4.64) (25)
8) Foxcatcher (4.63) (14)
9) La La Land (4.58) (16) (Nominated Best Picture)
10) Poor Things (4.53) (23) (Nominated Best Picture)
10) Anora (4.53) (24) (Won Best Picture)


TELLURIDE WINS TORONTO




The Toronto International Film festival's People's Choice Award for 2025 was won by Chloe Zhao's Hamnet.  Guillermo Del Toro's Frankenstein was second and Rian Johnson's Wake Up Dead Man took third.

As you can see above, Hamnet scored well with the Professionals at Telluride and we'll reveal The People's Telluride results on Thursday.


VISITATIONS








THE PEOPLE'S TELLURIDE-FINAL CALL




This is the final call for film ratings from The People.  You folks who watched films at TFF #52.  The deadline to rate is 5:00pm PDT this evening.  Email them to me at mpgot@gmail.com.




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Thursday, September 11, 2025

Critical Consensus / Trailer and Clip: Nouvelle Vauge and History of Sound / Visitations: Buckley, Mescal, Roher / The People's Telluride #13

 CRITICAL CONSENSUS



I am posting Metacritic and Rotten Tomatoes scores as of yesterday for many TFF #52 films:


Ballad of a Small Player     MC: 51     RT: 69    Combo: 120
Blue Moon                          MC: 78     RT: 97    Combo: 175
Bugonia                               MC: 74     RT: 92    Combo: 166
Frankenstein                        MC: 75     RT: 80    Combo: 155
Hamnet                                MC: 88     RT: 89    Combo: 177
The History of Sound          MC: 62     RT: 66    Combo: 128
If I Had Legs I'd Kick You    MC: 82     RT: 93    Combo: 175
It Was Just an Accident       MC: 88     RT: 98     Combo: 186
Jay Kelly                             MC: 66    RT: 86     Combo: 152
La Grazia                             MC: 69    RT: 76     Combo: 145   
The Mastermind                  MC: 79     RT: 89    Combo: 168
Nouvelle Vague                   MC: 72     RT: 88    Combo: 160
Pillion                                  MC: 85     RT: 100  Combo: 185
A Private Life                      MC: 66     RT: 69    Combo: 135
The Secret Agent                 MC: 87     RT: 100  Combo: 187
Sentimental Value:               MC: 89    RT: 95     Combo: 184
Spingsteen: Deliver Me...    MC: 69    RT: 100   Combo: 169


And ordered by combined Metacritic and Rotten Tomatoes score:


1) The Secret Agent: 187
2) It Was Just an Accident: 186
3) Pillion: 185
4) Sentimental Value: 184
5) Hamnet: 177 
6) If I Had Legs I'd Kick You: 175 (tie)
6) Blue Moon: 175 (tie)
8) Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere: 169
9) The Mastermind: 168
10) Bugonia: 166
11) Nouvelle Vague: 160
12) Frankenstein : 155
13) Jay Kelly: 152
14) La Grazia: 145
15) A Private Life: 135
16) The History of Sound: 128
17) Ballad of a Small Player: 120     

I'll have my own set of Professionals deliver their verdict in Monday's post.

TRAILER AND CLIP

From YouTube:

Trailer for Nouvelle Vague:



Clip from The History of Sound:



 VISITATIONS









THE PEOPLE'S TELLURIDE #13




You've have a few days left to get your ratings in for The People's Telluride.  At the moment we're at about half the respondents (maybe a bit more) that normally participate each year.  Additionally, the Pros are doing their part and I plan to have the The Professionals ratings up a week from today.

Again, email me a list of the films you saw and rate each on a 1 to 5 scale.  1 means it was very bad, 5 means you thought it was terrific.  Decimals are fine.

Report your ratings to: mpgort@gmail.com 

The deadline for this year to turn in your ratings will be Sept. 15th.




EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com

X (Twitter) @TheMTFB OR @Gort2 

Bluesky: @gort2.bsky.social

MTFB's Facebook Page

MTFB is published on Mondays and Thursdays

If you would like to be added to the MTFB e-mail list send an email to mpgort@gmail.com

Monday, September 8, 2025

The People's Telluride / Many Trailers / The Film Stage's 50 Films

 THE PEOPLE'S TELLURIDE


You've got a week left to get your ratings in for The People's Telluride.  At the moment we're at about half the respondents (maybe a bit more) that normally participate each year.  Additionally, the Pros are doing their part and I plan to have the The Professionals ratings up a week from today.

Again, email me a list of the films you saw and rate each on a 1 to 5 scale.  1 means it was very bad, 5 means you thought it was terrific.  Decimals are fine.

Report your ratings to: mpgort@gmail.com 

The deadline for this year to turn in your ratings will be Sept. 15th.


MANY TRAILERS

During and after the fest there were a number of teasers/trailers released for TFF #52 films.  Here are some of those from YouTube:

MEGADOC



THE SECRET AGENT


BUGONIA




HAMNET




URCHIN




THE FILM STAGE'S 50 FILMS




The Film Stage published a list of 50 films to see this fall along with their release dates.  As you might expect a number of TFF #52 films made the list.  Here are those that did in chronological order:

The History of Sound 9/12
Megadoc 9/19
If I Had Legs I'd Kick You 10/10
Urchin 10/10
It Was Just an Accident 10/15
Ballad of a Small Player 10/15
Blue Moon 10/17
The Mastermind 10/17
Frankenstein 10/17
Bugonia 10/24
Nouvelle Vague 10/31
Sentimental Value 11/7
Jay Kelly 11/14
The Secret Agent 11/26
Hamnet 11/27

Included as "Other films to see" are:

Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere 10/24
La Grazia 12/5




EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com

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Thursday, September 4, 2025

Reminder: The People's Telluride / MTFB and the Bets / Fewest Films Ever

REMINDER: THE PEOPLE'S TELLURIDE




Well Friends...

It is time.  If you haven't already sent in your ratings for TFF #51 films that you saw, now's the time.  A reminder about the process.  Email me a list of the films you saw and rate each on a 1 to 5 scale.  1 means it was very bad, 5 means you thought it was terrific.  Decimals are fine.

Report your ratings to: mpgort@gmail.com 

The deadline for this year to turn in your ratings will be Sept. 15th.

I'll compile all of your responses and post those a few days after the festival.


MTFB AND THE BETS




MTFB went 23/25 on the "Final Bets"  missing on the inclusion of  The Young Mothers' Home and Resurrection.  Also, I had only one "possible" that made the lineup and that was Megadoc.

"Bets" I was proud about making predictions for:

*Blue Moon and A Private Life and predicting them despite contradictory premiere designations.
*Urchin which I snuck in at the last minute.
  
As I have alluded to, this year seemed to be the toughest to crack in a long, long time.

Statistically, this year was my least successful since I started doing the expanded "Final Bets" back in 2016.

2024: 25 0f 25
2023: 24 of 25
2022: 24 of 25
2021: 24 of 25
2020: No fest
2019: 24 of 25
2018: 25 of 25
2017: 24 of 25
2016: 20 of 20

Additionally, the first stab at "Bets" back in June was fairly successful going 7 of 10.  The films that screened that appeared on my very first "Bets" are in Bold below:

1) It Was Just an Accident/Panahi
2) Blue Moon/Linklater
3) Bugonia/Lanthimos
4) The Love That Remains/Palmason
5) Sentimental Value/Trier
6) The Young Mothers' Home/Dardennes
7) The Secret Agent/Filho
8) Hamnet/Zhao
9) Deliver Me from Nowhere/S. Cooper
10) The Ballad of a Small Player/Berger

Here's the track record of initial bets going back to 2011:

2011: 8/10
2012: 5/10
2013: 6/10
2014: 7/10
2015: 4/10
2016: 3/10
2017: 7/10
2018: 5/10
2019: 4/10
2020: No fest
2021: 8/10
2022: 6/10
2023: 6/10
2024: 7/10
2025: 8/10 

The puts the average at 6.0  correct guesses per year.


FEWEST FILMS EVER



Through a series of events (such as missing all of Monday) I saw fewer films this year than any year since I started coming back in 2006.

Hamnet 5/5
Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere 5/5
Jay Kelly: 4/5
Blue Moon 3/5

That's it.





EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com

X (Twitter) @TheMTFB OR @Gort2 

Bluesky: @gort2.bsky.social

MTFB's Facebook Page

MTFB is published on Mondays and Thursdays

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