Oscar Winners Predix: Animated, Doc, International / The Cannes-nundrum

OSCAR WINNERS PREDIX: ANIMATED FEATURE, DOCUMENATRY FEATURE, INTERNATIONAL FEATURE

Predicting the winners for the 93rd Academy Awards.  

ANIMATED FEATURE

1) Soul

2) Wolkwalkers

3) Onward

4) Over the Moon

5) Farmageddon: A Shaun the Sheep Movie

DOCUMENATRY FEATURE

1) My Octopus Teacher

2) Time

3) Crip Camp: A Disability Revolution

4) Collective

5) The Mole Agent

INTERNATIONAL FEATURE

1) Another Round

2) Quo Vadis, Aida

3) Collective

4) The Man Who Sold His Skin

5) Better Days

Comments: Most years Telluride is represented in both the International and Documentary categories and on occasion TFF films pop up in the Animated feature category as well.  But that's not the case in this year of Covid.

As a matter of fact you have to go all the way back to 2004 for the last time that a TFF film wasn't nominated in at least one of the categories.

Both Soul and Another Round appear to be prohibitive favorites in their respective categories.  Meanwhile, the Doc category remains one of the most competitive and tight races as we count down the last three weeks before the winners are announced on April 25th.

In Thursday's post, I'll predict winners for Cinematography, Editing, Production Design and I'll update the Best Picture and Best Director categories.

THE CANNES-NUNDRUM

So I've written a good deal about the up-in-the-air 2021 Cannes Film Festival.  Those who are regular readers of this space know that Cannes selections often provide fertile ground for films that will eventually also screen at Telluride.  Eight films in 2019 played at Cannes before screening at Telluride over Labor Day weekend.

But the Cannes-nundrum this year is that Cannes is on the move.  Normally by this time we'd be deep into trying to discern what films would be Cannes selections for clues as to what 6-10 of them would end up in Telluride.  In 2019 Cannes named its list of films on April 18th.  But with Cannes saying they're fest will run in July (and rumors that it could be put off until October), what Cannes and/or Telluride watchers are left with is a world where too many uncertainties make predicting films that will play one or the other or both is ridiculously difficult.\

Take Wes Anderson's The French Dispatch.  It is widely assumed that the film will...probably...debut at Cannes.  But that talk has been around since before  Cannes 2020 was canceled because of the pandemic.  It was assumed, at least for awhile, that the film would simply move to Cannes 2021.  Even when Cannes organizers began pointing toward a possible delay until July, it seemed probable that Cannes would be the destination.  

Now add in that The French Dispatch along the way had a release date in mid-September.  That and Searchlight as a distributor made it a tempting film to predict for Telluride.  But The French Dispatch has no official release date as of now.  The Cannes uncertainty is likely the cause.  If the French fest ultimately ends up in October the fall film fest lineup of Telluride, Venice, Toronto and New York all would be impacted.

My guess, and it's just a guess, is that The French Dispatch goes wherever and however Cannes goes.  So if your any of those fall fests that have been thinking they could get Wes Anderson and crew for their fest-an October Cannes likely means that's not going to happen.

What other films could have to make that calculation?

Take a look at Jordan Ruimy's list of Cannes possibles (he updated it as recently as Mar. 28th):

Directors set to have new films ready by Cannes include 

”Soggy Bottom” (Paul Thomas Anderson)

”The French Dispatch” (Wes Anderson) 

”Annette” (Leos Carax) 

”Macbeth” (Joel Coen) 

”The Way of the Wind” (Terrence Malick)

”Ahed’s Knee” (Nadav Lapid) 

”Blonde” (Andrew Dominik)

”Memoria” (Apichatpong Weerasethakul) 

”Benedetta” (Paul Verhoeven) 

”Blossoms” (Wong Kar-wai)

”The Power of the Dog” (Jane Campion)

”Tromperie” (Arnaud Desplechin)

”Bergman Island” (Mia Hansen-Løve)

”Chocobar” (Lucrecia Martel)

”Les Olympiades” (Jacques Audiard) 

”The Souvenir Part II” (Joanna Hogg)

”Tre Piani” (Nanni Moretti) 

”Triangle of Sadness” (Ruben Ostlund) 

”The Hand of God” (Paolo Sorrentino)

"Mektoub: Canto Duo" (Abdelatif Kechiche)

“Benediction” (Terrence Davies)

“The Green Knight” (David Lowery)

“Italian Studies” (Adam Leon)

“Algerien Par Accident” (Karim Aïnouz)

“Last Night in Soho” (Edgar Wright)

“The Northman” (Robert Eggers)

“After Yang” (Kogonada)

“Mona Lisa and the Blood Moon” (Ana Lily Amirpour)

I'd imagine that for a good number of these directors, playing Cannes in October and not having an appearance at any of the fall fests prior to Cannes would be just fine (I expect Cannes will insist on world premieres regardless of the date they ultimately land on).

But a number of these folks have played Telluride and often as a pairing with either Cannes or Venice:

PTA, Malick, Coen, Campion, Hansen-Love, Audiard, Kechiche, Lowery.  What do they do and how will those choices affect Telluride and other festivals?  It's a puzzle I haven't begun to solve.

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If It Had Happened-The Tributes? / Sniffing Out Another Possible / What Might Have Been-Chicago 7 Looks

IF IT HAD HAPPENED-THE TRIBUTES?

Because my mind works the way it does (or doesn't?), after TFF announced that TFF #47 was not to be but that they had a list of 20 or so films that would have been programmed and that all of the tribute recipients were planning to attend, I got to wondering who those folks might be.

Then with Indiewire's story about some of the titles they thought might make the lineup when it is ultimately revealed, I put together a third new list of films that are my "Bets" to make the TFF list.  And from that I began to speculate and extrapolate tribute possibilities.

If you remember last Monday's 3rd Ten Bets:

10) Fireball
9) John Prine: Hello In There
8) There Is No Evil
7) Soul
6) The French Dispatch
5) Lover's Rock (Small Axe)
4) Mangrove (Small Axe)
3) Notturno
2) Nomadland
1) Ammonite

Other possibilities: Undine, Forgotten We'll Be, Untitled Garbus/Cortes Voting Rights Documentary,  The Secrets We Keep, American Utopia (probably not now as it has been named Toronto's opening night film) and French Exit.

Soooo...let's look at some of more intriguing possibilities:

From #1 Ammonite:  You could see either Kate Winslet or Saoirse Ronan getting named.  Rumors have it that Ronan might well have been a possible tributee in 2017 with Lady Bird.  Winslet was in T-ride with the cast of Steve Jobs in 2015.

From #2 Nomadland:  Two time Oscar winner Frances McDormand (Fargo/Three Billboards, three other nominations) is a no brainer possibility.

From #4 #5 Small Axe films Mangrove and Lover's Rock: Director Steve McQueen.  McQueen's feature list isn't lengthy but is impressive including 12 Years a Slave (for which he won an Oscar as a producer of the Best Picture winner), Widows, Hunger, Shame.  He's a definite consideration.

From #6 The French Dispatch:  Writer/Director Wes Anderson is the most obvious choice.  A lengthy  and well-loved resume' (including The Royal Tenenbaums, Moonrise Kingdom and The Grand Budapest Hotel) and seven time Oscar nominee makes that apparent.  But the cast is so large and diverse...you'd have a cornucopia of actor type possibilities: Saoirse Ronan (again), Frances McDormand (again), Elizabeth Moss, Edward Norton, Christoph Waltz, Willem Dafoe, Benicio Del Toro, Henry Winkler and, of course, Bill Murray (could he double up with the addition of Sofia Coppola's On the Rocks being programmed as well?)

From #7:  I think Pixar's Pete Docter (Up, Inside Out, Monster's Inc.) might be a possibility.  MTFB friend Christopher Schiller has suggested perhaps Pixar as an entity gets a tribute.  That sounds like a real possibility as well.

From the rest of the "Bets" and the other possibilities:

Undine director/writer Christian Petzold
Documentary producer/director Liz Garbus
Actress Michelle Pfeiffer from French Exit




SNIFFING OUT ANOTHER POSSIBLE

Poster for Michael Dweck and Gregory Kershaw's The Truffle Hunters (from IMDb)

As we await word from TFF organizers what the official TFF #47 lineup is/was I may have sniffed out another possibility.  Without going into details, because I can't, I respectfully offer the documentary The Truffle Hunters. 

Had some things happen the last day or so that makes me think if could be on the TFF #47 list when it gets announced.  Yes, I know, it bowed at Sundance back in late January which is usually means a clear "no" for TFF as it wouldn't be a North American premiere.  But...that's a less stringent truth when it comes to docs as, over the years, TFF has programmed docs that had previously screened in the U.S. before screening at Telluride. 

Working for the film's possible inclusion is that its distributor is Sony Pictures Classics which often has a substantial TFF profile.

The Truffle Hunters focuses on three elderly Italian men who, wait for it-hunt truffles.

The Truffle Hunters IMDb page is linked here.

The film won the Grand Jury Prize at Sundance for World Cinema-Documentary.


WHAT MIGHT HAVE BEEN-CHICAGO 7 LOOKS

(from Vanity Fair)

Vanity Fair had a knockout exclusive first look at stills from Aaron Sorkin's The Trial of the Chicago 7. 

Included in the accompanying article by David Ansen is the revelation that the film will drop on Netflix on Oct. 16th.  I've had this film circled as a TFF possibility since learning that it was going forward (first mention in MTFB that I can find is Dec. 2018).  The Oct. 16th date feels like what, in the olden times-like last year- would have been a plan to drop the film after completing a run tha could have included TFF, TIFF, Venice and/or NYFF.

Nevertheless, despite Netflix's determination that they wouldn't be festing at all this season, this is one of three films that I'm really, really looking forward to (in addition are Mank and The French Dispatch).

Glad I have that Netflix subscription.

The complete story and many other photos are here at Vanity Fair.

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TFF #47 Is On / Cannes Slate Reveal on Wednesday / Housekeeping Note

TFF #47 IS ON

If you're reading this you almost certainly already knew the story.  The Telluride Film Festival mass emailed pass holders on Friday with the assurance that TFF #47 was happening.

The complete text follows (but I'll bet you've already seen it):

From the very beginning, the founders of the Telluride Film Festival declined to call it an “annual” event. Like most things with the SHOW, this was intentional. There was an understanding that life is indeed full of uncertainty. Maybe there wouldn’t be a festival every year…and it has made each eventual Labor Day celebration that much sweeter.

We see clearly the obstacles that are cruelly, tragically and stubbornly in our way this year in orders of magnitude our dear founders might not ever have envisioned.

But there has been a determination to proceed, in large part fueled by the voices in our community. This community understands that movies really are empathy machines, that when we assemble to witness the glories of cinema together, something magical happens. We humbly suggest that our world needs the light of cinema and its beautiful by-products of compassion and emotional storytelling alchemy like never before.

We are not ignorant of the devastation facing the world. We feel the fear and distress too. This is why we are committed to observing all guidance as suggested by the consensus of voices of the scientific community with whom we are consulting now. This will not be a business as usual event. Things will look and feel very different.

We’re contacting you today to let you know we’re hard at work to provide a safe and joyous environment that will include an extra day to allow more space within and between screenings, along with all of the necessary safety tweaks and adjustments you’ve become very familiar with, regardless of where you call home.

The festival will begin Thursday, September 3, instead of Friday, and will end on Monday, as usual. We will have a charter from New York City, in addition to our usual charters from Los Angeles, to ensure easier and more controlled transit for our East Coast friends. Please contact ann@ski.com to book your flights.

Your comfort and safety are the most important things to us. A defining characteristic of our community and especially of the dedicated volunteers who bring you the SHOW, is remarkable willpower - and grit. We promise to marshal these qualities to create the most secure environment possible for all of us.

For those of you who opt to not join us, we absolutely understand and support this decision. Your reasons surely involve heightened personal health concerns and you must do what is the very best for you. We trust and hope you’ll be back with us the next time we can provide optimal conditions for the SHOW. May that be soon.

In the meantime, we will let you know additional and specific information in the coming weeks.

For every gesture of support you have shown us, we thank you- very, very much.

FIAT LUX!


The email includes the official announcement that the fest will start a day early -on Thursday, Sept. 3rd.  Of what is perhaps the most important sentence in the email is the assurance that "additional and specific information" will be on its way in the coming weeks.

I suspect that kind of information will be crucial to decisions about whether to attend the fest for a number of people.

As I'm sure many of you saw, the release of the email created quite a ripple in the film press universe.  Among all the stories I ran across the one that seemed most willing to toss on a little speculation beyond the text of the email itself was Pete Hammond at Deadline.com

Among the items that piqued my interest in Hammond's story about TFF going forward were these:

Hammond suggests that Wes Anderson's The French Dispatch might still be in the running to screen at Telluride.  He writes:

"Of course, there is great uncertainty about other big name films being ready for any fest, and the situation is fluid, to say the least.

One possibility would appear to be Fox Searchlight’s Wes Anderson film French Dispatch, which was reported to appear in Cannes and open in May. It has been moved to an October launch, which would make it an obvious choice for Telluride and Toronto, especially since Searchlight almost always has at least one premiere, and often more, in the pipeline for these fests."

That would be fantastic from my perspective and undercuts the notion that The French Dispatch might be a Toronto-only presentation.

Further, Hammond opens the door slightly to there being the possibility that Netflix's announcement that it would be doing any fall fests might not be 100% carved in stone:

" Netflix, which has been a key presence in the last couple of years is sitting this one out, at least at this point."

The key sentence there being the "At least at this point".

And, as an aside...due to Telluride's secretive nature, you kind of have to wonder that if Netflix was ONLY going to screen at Telluride that they might suggest they weren't going anywhere.

Personally, I take Netflix at its word that they won't screen anywhere...but it's fun to speculate.

The third take from the Hammond article underscores what I've been saying for a bit and that is that we're all likely going to get some insight to possible TFF selections when Cannes announces the films that it would have programmed on Wednesday.  Hammond writes:

"Several titles always come from Cannes, so we can probably expect some of them when Cannes reveals the lineup they had set for the May fest that didn’t happen. That will be on June 3, and those films will be able to carry the Cannes Film Festival 2020 label. So Telluride toppers Julie Huntsinger and Tom Luddy will certainly be looking at those."

So, there are some things to chew on.

The complete Hammond/Deadline article is linked here.


CANNES SLATE REVEAL ON WEDNESDAY

As mentioned above and in previous posts, Cannes will be announcing a list of around 50 titles on Wednesday that will be classified as Cannes 2020 selections and will carry the stamp of that going forward as other film fests will be screening those films.  As Hammond mentions in his above referenced post and as I have said repeatedly, you can expect that some TFF #47 choices will be on that list.

As I written here before, in atypical year the average Telluride/Cannes crossover is 7-8 films.  My guess, and it's totally a guess, is that the crossover might be larger this year.

Cannes artistic director Thierry Fremaux is expected to announce around 50 titles on Wednesday.  He was interviewed recently by Scott Roxborough for The Hollywood Reporter and though Fremaux doesn't mention Telluride specifically...I have to believe, as Hammond does in his article, that Cannes will have a presence at TFF #47.

The Fremaux/THR interview is linked here.


HOUSEKEEPING NOTE

Long time followers of MTFB know that as we get into June I have traditionally expanded the number of times I post per week.  However, with the lack of clarity surrounding virtually everything due to Covid-19, I'm going to keep with the normal twice a week format for a couple of weeks.

Lots of approaches and items that I normally write about at the start of the summer are so ill-defined currently that I don't think that they'd  be all that valuable to address right now.

So, I'll likely expand to the four posts per week schedule the week of June 22nd.

Of course, this all could change at any moment.

Be safe and kind this week...

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Not So Smart/View of Hyde Park/Depp and Anderson/Knight Without Damsel

Good Tuesday to All!


NOT SO SMART

So, yesterday, I was doing my research thing; trying to suss put clues here and there to what might be playing at this year's fest.  I stumbled over a reference online and dug into it.  At one point I was about 90% certain that I had a backdoor confirmation that a film that I have mentioned and that has been on the Ten Bets list was a go for TFF.  Very exciting...and I'm thinking I'm a film research genius.  Then I get a response to a feeler I had sent to a source....mmm...nope...no confirmation.  Actually, more confusion...

So..."not so smart"...but I'll keep trying!

VIEW OF HYDE PARK

The Playlist has a post up this morning that shows us posters for John Hillcoat's "Lawless" which we won't see in Telluride (it opens nationally that weekend) and Roger Michell's "Hyde Park on Hudson" which I feel strongly that we WILL see in Telluride.  Here's the poster:

And the post from The Playlist:

http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/shia-labeouf-lives-in-the-shadows-on-new-lawless-poster-hyde-park-on-hudson-poster-spotlights-bill-murrays-fdr-20120717

The "Hyde Park" teaser:

JOHNNY DEPP AND WES ANDERSON

Wes Anderson is enjoying some of his best reviews for his current "Moonrise Kingdom".  Meanwhile, Johnny Depp may be the biggest movie star on the planet ("Dark Shadows" notwithstanding).  Neither film maker has made an appearance at Telluride, but that could change.  The interweb was lousy yesterday with the story that the two will apparently work together on Anderson's "The Grand Budapest Hotel" (rhetorically, does that sound a lot like John Madden's "The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel"?)

Check the barrage of reporting:

Deadline.com

http://www.deadline.com/2012/07/johnny-depp-wes-anderson-movie-starring-grand-budapest-hotel/

HitFix:

http://www.hitfix.com/news/johnny-depp-checks-into-wes-andersons-the-great-budapest-hotel

The Playlist:

http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/johnny-depp-confirmed-for-wes-andersons-new-film-the-grand-budapest-hotel-20120716

The Hollywood Reporter:

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/johnny-depp-wes-anderson-next-film-349863

For hoots, here's the trailer for "Moonrise Kingdom":

KNIGHT WITHOUT DAMSEL

We have gotten used to seeing set photos of Christian Bale with various beautiful women from Terrence Malick's currently filming "Knight of Cups".  Finally, photos emerged yesterday of Bale and someone male.  Oakenfold, who I gather is something of a well known DJ are featured.  Here's a pic:

and the story from The Playlist:
http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/watch-yes-that-is-christian-bale-hanging-with-paul-oakenfold-shooting-terrence-malicks-knight-of-cups-20120716


More later...


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