Sean Penn (A 2007 Telluride attendee) as Harvey Milk in "Milk" may be on his way to another Oscar!The Golden Globes noms are out and this morning the nominations from SAG were announced...and a slew of Critics choices and Top Tens are out so the last two weeks have seen some movement, so here is our pre-holiday update...Ultimately, it now seems that the 5 nominations for Best Picture come down to 7 films and two of them will left outside looking in.(Telluride connections in CAPS & BOLD)
Best Picture: SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE, BENJAMIN BUTTON, Milk, Frost/Nixon, and Dark Knight
Lurking: Revolutionary Road, Doubt, Australia, The Reader, The Wrestler
Comment: Generally the retreat by Australia continues and now Revolutionary Road is struggling...The Globes should have provided Rev Road with a shot in the arm, but this morning's SAG awards hurt it some (since DiCaprio missed on Best Actor and it didn't get an ensemble nod). Doubt is the film that got a lift this morning. As to this evaluation...the two biggest movers in this category were SLUMDOG up 2 spots and Milk down 2...although I think both of these also got boosts this morning...Milk, however took a hit from the Globes...yet despite that, I think it's a very likely Best Pic nom.
Director: BOYLE/SLUMDOG, FINCHER/BUTTON, Van Sant/Milk, Howard/Frost, Nolan/Dark Knight
Lurking: Mendes/Rev Road, Aronofsky/Wrestler, Daldry/The Reader, Demme/Rachel Getting Married, Eastwood/Gran Torino
Comments: Mendes actually jumped up a couple of spots as does Daldry. Eastwood is back on the list despite the fact that Gran Torino also seems to be losing some steam.
Actor: Penn/Milk, Rourke/Wrestler, Langella/Frost, DiCaprio/Rev Road, PITT/BUTTON
Lurking: Eastwood/Gran, Jenkins/Visitor, Brolin/W, Del Toro/Che, and Hoffman/Harvey
Comment: The only big mover here is Eastwood who drops a couple of spots out of the nominees. Pitt returns and his SAG and Globe noms probably help him quite a bit. I still think Richard Jenkins will sneak a nom and his SAG nom helps.
Actress: Winslet/Rev Road, Streep/Doubt, Hathaway/Rachel, Jolie/Changeling, THOMAS/LOVED YOU SO LONG
Lurkers: HAWKINS/HAPPY-GO-LUCKY, BLANCHETT/BUTTON, Leo/Frozen River, Beckinsale/Nothing Bot the Truth, Kidman/Australia
Comment: Movers...Jolie back up 2 spots, Blanchett takes a big dive of 3 spots. Her exclusion from both Globes and SAG may doom her shot. Melissa Leo got a lift this morning with her SAG nom. Ultimately, the 3 Telluride connected actresses may all end up being shut out...or fight for the fifth spot or they could all end up with nominations.
Supp. Actor: Ledger/Dark Knight, Hoffman/Doubt, Downey/Tropic Thunder, Brolin/Milk, Shannon/Rev Road
Lurkers: Franco/Milk, PATEL/SLUMDOG, Fiennes/Reader, Schreiber/Defiance, Fiennes/Duchess
Comment: Michael Shannon, whom I have thought was a lock, is a substantial dropper (2 spots). The other note is Ralph Fiennes lurking in 2 different movies now. Heath Ledger still seems to be the prohibitive favorite and that is unlikely to change. Patel gets a lift from his SAG nom and the general upward trajectory of Slumdog in almost all of its categories.
Supp. Actress: Cruz/Barcelona, Davis/Doubt, Winslet/Reader, Tomei/Wrestler, HENSON/BUTTON
Lurking: DeWitt/Rachel, Adams/Doubt, Winger/Rachel, Bates/Rev Road, Farmiga/Nothing
Comment: Movers are Winslet up 2, Henson down 2, Bates down 2 and Farmiga retuning to the list. Amy Adams was helped a ton by the SAG nom and her Globe nom last week.
Adapted Screenplay: BUTTON, SLUMDOG, Frost/Nixon, Doubt, and Rev Road
Best Picture: SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE, BENJAMIN BUTTON, Milk, Frost/Nixon, and Dark Knight
Lurking: Revolutionary Road, Doubt, Australia, The Reader, The Wrestler
Comment: Generally the retreat by Australia continues and now Revolutionary Road is struggling...The Globes should have provided Rev Road with a shot in the arm, but this morning's SAG awards hurt it some (since DiCaprio missed on Best Actor and it didn't get an ensemble nod). Doubt is the film that got a lift this morning. As to this evaluation...the two biggest movers in this category were SLUMDOG up 2 spots and Milk down 2...although I think both of these also got boosts this morning...Milk, however took a hit from the Globes...yet despite that, I think it's a very likely Best Pic nom.
Director: BOYLE/SLUMDOG, FINCHER/BUTTON, Van Sant/Milk, Howard/Frost, Nolan/Dark Knight
Lurking: Mendes/Rev Road, Aronofsky/Wrestler, Daldry/The Reader, Demme/Rachel Getting Married, Eastwood/Gran Torino
Comments: Mendes actually jumped up a couple of spots as does Daldry. Eastwood is back on the list despite the fact that Gran Torino also seems to be losing some steam.
Actor: Penn/Milk, Rourke/Wrestler, Langella/Frost, DiCaprio/Rev Road, PITT/BUTTON
Lurking: Eastwood/Gran, Jenkins/Visitor, Brolin/W, Del Toro/Che, and Hoffman/Harvey
Comment: The only big mover here is Eastwood who drops a couple of spots out of the nominees. Pitt returns and his SAG and Globe noms probably help him quite a bit. I still think Richard Jenkins will sneak a nom and his SAG nom helps.
Actress: Winslet/Rev Road, Streep/Doubt, Hathaway/Rachel, Jolie/Changeling, THOMAS/LOVED YOU SO LONG
Lurkers: HAWKINS/HAPPY-GO-LUCKY, BLANCHETT/BUTTON, Leo/Frozen River, Beckinsale/Nothing Bot the Truth, Kidman/Australia
Comment: Movers...Jolie back up 2 spots, Blanchett takes a big dive of 3 spots. Her exclusion from both Globes and SAG may doom her shot. Melissa Leo got a lift this morning with her SAG nom. Ultimately, the 3 Telluride connected actresses may all end up being shut out...or fight for the fifth spot or they could all end up with nominations.
Supp. Actor: Ledger/Dark Knight, Hoffman/Doubt, Downey/Tropic Thunder, Brolin/Milk, Shannon/Rev Road
Lurkers: Franco/Milk, PATEL/SLUMDOG, Fiennes/Reader, Schreiber/Defiance, Fiennes/Duchess
Comment: Michael Shannon, whom I have thought was a lock, is a substantial dropper (2 spots). The other note is Ralph Fiennes lurking in 2 different movies now. Heath Ledger still seems to be the prohibitive favorite and that is unlikely to change. Patel gets a lift from his SAG nom and the general upward trajectory of Slumdog in almost all of its categories.
Supp. Actress: Cruz/Barcelona, Davis/Doubt, Winslet/Reader, Tomei/Wrestler, HENSON/BUTTON
Lurking: DeWitt/Rachel, Adams/Doubt, Winger/Rachel, Bates/Rev Road, Farmiga/Nothing
Comment: Movers are Winslet up 2, Henson down 2, Bates down 2 and Farmiga retuning to the list. Amy Adams was helped a ton by the SAG nom and her Globe nom last week.
Adapted Screenplay: BUTTON, SLUMDOG, Frost/Nixon, Doubt, and Rev Road
Lurkers: The Reader, Dark Knight, Gomorrah
Comment: No changes from last post.
Original Screenplay: Milk, Rachel Getting Married, Vicky Christina Barcelona, Wall E, HAPPY-GO-LUCKY
Lurks: The Visitor, The Wrestler, Australia, Burn After Reading and The Changeling
Comment: Burn and Changeling new to the list...No other big movement.
BIG 8 NOMS:
BUTTON and Milk 5
Doubt, Frost, Rev Road 4
SLUMDOG 3
Rachel/Wrestler 2
Totals with "lurkers" included:
Revolutionary Road 7
BUTTON, Milk, Doubt 6
Rachel 5
Frost/SLUMDOG 4
Telluride still looks like 10 noms and 4 lurkers in the Big 8 categories with tech, foreign and animation noms still to be included. Those may actually boost the number of Oscar nominations for Festival linked films past last year's total. I am thinking the BUTTON will lead all pictures with double digit nominations and that SLUMDOG may have as many as 9...Pic, Director, Supp Actor, Adapted Screenplay, Score, Song, Sound Editing, Film Editing and Cinematography...
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