Oscar Clearinghouse #4

3 Months away from Telluride and a couple of months til Oscar night...

Telluride connects in CAPS AND BOLD.

Best Picture: Milk, BENJAMIN BUTTON, SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE, Dark Knight, and Frost/Nixon...Lurkers: Revolutionary Road, Australia, Doubt, The Wrestler, and The Reader.

Comment: The "Slumdog" momentum out of Telluride has continued and Danny Boyle's tale has thundered from a blip to a full-fledged solid contender...and many guessperts now have it at the top of their lists. Including this morning's announcement that it was The National Board of Review's Best Picture of the year. Here's the list of their choices and top ten:

Best Film: SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE

Best Director: DAVID FINCHER, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Best Actor: CLINT EASTWOOD, Gran Torino

Best Actress: ANNE HATHAWAY, Rachel Getting Married

Best Supporting Actor: JOSH BROLIN, Milk

Best Supporting Actress: PENELOPE CRUZ, Vicky Cristina Barcelona

Best Foreign Language Film: MONGOL

Best Documentary: MAN ON WIRE

Best Animated Feature: WALL-E

Best Ensemble Cast: DOUBT

Breakthrough Performance by an Actor: DEV PATEL, Slumdog Millionaire

Breakthrough Performance by an Actress: VIOLA DAVIS, Doubt

Best Directorial Debut: COURTNEY HUNT, Frozen River

Best Original Screenplay: NICK SCHENK, Gran Torino

Best Adapted Screenplay: SIMON BEAUFOY, Slumdog Millionaire and ERIC ROTH, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Spotlight Award: MELISSA LEO, Frozen River and RICHARD JENKINS, The Visitor

The BVLGARI Award for NBR Freedom of Expression: TRUMBO.

In addition NBR's Top Ten list is: BURN AFTER READING, CHANGELING, THE CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON, THE DARK KNIGHT, DEFIANCE, FROST/NIXON, GRAN TORINO, MILK, WALL•E and THE WRESTLER.

Finally, I think SLUMDOG will get some tech noms as well (Cinematography, editing, sound editing and end up with 7 nominations) Big Movers: "Dark Knight" charged up the list 3 spots, "Australia" is taking a huge hickey this post as it drops 4 spots...people actually seeing it is my guess as to the cause. I saw it last week and uh...NO.

Director: DANNY BOYLE, Gus Van Sant, DAVID FINCHER, Ron Howard, and Christopher Nolan...Lurkers: Darren Aronofsky, Baz Luhrmann, Sam Mendes, Jonathan Demme, and Stephen Daldry.

Comment: Boyle moves into the #1 spot for Slumdog...very exciting for those of us that got to see the film in Telluride. Big Movers: Boyle and Ron Howard are both up a couple of spots...The Frost/Nixon trailer looks amazing. Baz Luhrmann drops 5 spots as "Australia" goes south in every category in which it was competitive last month. (as a mater of fact, it was in play for 3 noms among the Big 8 last month and is gone from all 3 categories now).

Actor: Sean Penn/Milk, Mickey Rourke/Wrestler, Frank Langella/Frost, Clint Eastwood/Gran Torino, and Leonardo DiCaprio/Revolutionary...Lurkers: PITT/BUTTON, Jenkins/Visitor, Del Toro/Che, Brolin/W, And D. Hoffman/Harvey.

Comment: I've seen the trailers now for both Milk and Frost/Nixon and both Penn and Langella look amazing! I've also seen the Gran Torino trailer...uhh, Clint looks OK, but not in their league...of course, they're trailers, soooo...And I saw Richard Jenkins in "The Visitor" last week. A really nice performance. I'm guessing he ends up with a nomination after it's all said and done.

And another quick observation...it looks increasingly like Best Actor will come from a non-Telluride film for the first time in quite a few years. Big Movers: Eastwood moves up 2 spots and Hoffman appears on the list for the first time...that's Dustin not Philip Seymour...

Actress: Meryl Streep/Doubt, Kate Winslet/Revolutionary, Anne Hathaway/Rachel, CATE BLANCHETT/BUTTON, and KRISTIN SCOTT THOMAS/LOVED YOU. Lurkers: Jolie/Changeling, HAWKINS/HAPPY-GO-LUCKY, Leo/Frozen River, Kidman/Australia, and Beckinsale/Nothing.

Comment: Potentially the category upon which there may be the most Telluride emphasis (although I expect that actually will be Foreign Film...in which all 5 may have been at Telluride). Big Mover: Blanchett soars 5 spots. Kidman drops 2 spots.

Supporting Actor: Heath Ledger/Dark Knight, P.S. Hoffman/Doubt, Michael Shannon/Revolutionary, Robert Downey, Jr./Thunder, and James Brolin/Milk...Honorary inclusion for James Franco for Milk as he trailed Brolin by one point...Lurkers: DEV PATEL/SLUMDOG, Schreiber/Defiance, Fiennes/Reader, and Irwin/Rachel.

Comment: Mr. Patel makes a substantial move, up 3 spots and I expect the trend to continue as the heat for Slumdog just seems to be getting hotter. Downey and Fiennes are big movers up as well.

Supporting Actress: Viola Davis/Doubt, Penelope Cruz/Barcelona, TARAJI P. HENSON/BUTTON, Marisa Tomei/Wrestler, and Kate Winslet/The Reader. Lurkers: DeWitt/Rachel, Bates/Revolutionary, Adams/Doubt, Winger/Rachel, and Abbas/Visitor.

Comment: Winslet is flirting with a double nom. Big Movers: Winslet is up 3 spots and Abbas appears for the first time.

Adapted Screenplay: BUTTON, SLUMDOG, Frost/Nixon, Doubt, Revolutionary Road. Lurkers: Reader, Dark Knight, Defiance, GOMORRAH.

Comment: Can't even really get to 10 possibles. Gomorrah appears for the first time. Big Movers: Slumdog up 2 spots to tie with Button for #1 and Revolutionary drops 3 spots.

Original Screenplay: Milk, Rachel Getting Married, Vicky Christina Barcelona, HAPPY-GO-LUCKY, and Wall-E. Lurkers: Wrestler, Visitor, Australia, Gran Torino, and Seven Pounds.

Comment: The fall of Australia continues in this category as well as it dropped 5 spots. Other Big Movers: Wrestler up 3 and Seven Pounds making its first appearance. And it looks impressive in trailers as well. Stronger,to me at least, than Pursuit of Happiness...which has the same pedigree in terms of actor/author/director.

Nom leaders (in the Big 8 categories): Milk and BUTTON with 5, Revolutionary Road, Doubt and Frost/Nixon have 4 and 3 for SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE and Dark Knight.

Totals of noms and lurks:

1) Revolutionary Road (7)

2) Milk/BUTTON/Doubt (6)

5) SLUMDOG/Dark Knight and Frost/Nixon (4)